Indicadores Comerciales Del Siglo Xxi
Tom DeMark - Indicadores de comercio para el siglo 21 [Repost]
Tom DeMark - Indicadores de comercio para el siglo XXI 6x MP4 | AVC a 644 Kbps | 640 x 480 (1,333) @ 29,970 fps AAC @ 96,0 Kbps | 2 canales | 48 KHz | Español | 2.4 GB Género: Trading / Stocks eLearning
Por último, puede descubrir secretos disponibles anteriormente sólo a los comerciantes de dinero grande a un costo de $ 100.000 o más!
Imagínese lo que sería como si pudiera escanear los mercados y ver instantáneamente oportunidades que le pueden hacer mucho dinero. Durante los últimos 25 años, Tom DeMark ha inventado docenas de indicadores técnicos patentados diseñados para hacer precisamente eso.
Ahora Tom ha aceptado compartir sus armas comerciales más potentes en este emocionante nuevo taller disponible sólo en Futures Learning Center.
Esto es lo que aprenderás:
• Identificar las zonas de entrada de bajo riesgo en prácticamente cualquier mercado • Cómo identificar las potenciales reversiones de tendencia cuando se ha identificado una zona de compra o venta de bajo riesgo • Utilizar los indicadores de Tom para localizar posibles inversiones de tendencia • Combinar Indicadores de Tom con filtros adicionales para mejorar su tiempo de mercado
• Determinar si una zona de compra o venta de bajo riesgo puede tener éxito o si la tendencia anterior continuará. • Determinar si una zona de compra o venta de bajo riesgo puede tener éxito o si la tendencia anterior continuará ? ¿Donde dibujar la linea? Y cuándo descalificar una zona de compra o venta de bajo riesgo previamente identificada antes de que se produzca una confirmación del comercio
• Cómo anticipar cambios de tendencias potenciales más rápidamente • Identificar zonas de agotamiento de precios usando TD Combo • Cómo usar TD Combo con TD Sequential para identificar zonas de bajo riesgo de compra y venta • Introducción a TDST, La contribución más significativa de Tom a la sincronización del mercado • Definición de inversiones de tendencia y zonas de soporte y resistencia • Uso de TDST para determinar si la fase de Cuenta atrás de TD Sequential o TD Combo se completará
• Calculando y aplicando el Factor de Tendencia de TD a los gráficos de precios • Utilizando el Factor de Tendencia de TD para predecir los objetivos de alto riesgo de probabilidad y desventaja • Proyectando retrocesos y topes usando el Factor de Tendencia TD • Aplicando Retracción Relativa a anticipos recientes o Declina determinar dónde pueden ocurrir niveles de soporte y resistencia a corto y / o largo plazo • Cómo usar Absolute Retracement para calcular los niveles de soporte para los mercados que se están negociando en máximos históricos
• Identificar las divisiones falsas y las zonas de agotamiento de precios con más precisión • Identificar y construir líneas TD y usarlas para confirmar zonas de bajo riesgo de compra o venta • Combinación de TD Diff Con TD Open para confirmar la identificación de TD Sequential y TD Combo de bajo riesgo de comprar y vender zonas
Volumen 6: Determinación de la duración de los movimientos del mercado • Uso de los indicadores de Tom para determinar la duración de los movimientos del mercado • Cómo utilizar una técnica de media móvil simple para confirmar un cambio de tendencia cuando se ha identificado una zona de compra o venta de bajo riesgo • Utilizar TD Canales para alertarle sobre un posible cambio en la dirección de una tendencia. Y cómo aprovechar la oportunidad cuando se produce • ¿Cómo construir su propio oscilador usando un oscilador? • Identificar posibles rupturas de precios utilizando un enfoque de compresión de precios
Capturas de pantalla (clic para ampliar):
Tom DeMark - Indicadores de comercio para el siglo 21
Nombre Producto: Tom DeMark - Indicadores de Negocio para el Precio del Siglo 21. & # 36; 169 Autor: Tom DeMark Tamaño: 2.35 GB Sitio web: http://www. tradingdvdshop. com/index. php? main_page=product_info&products_id=459 Por fin, puedes descubrir secretos previamente disponibles sólo para dinero grande Comerciantes a un costo de & # 36; 100,000 o más!
Imagínese lo que sería como si pudiera escanear los mercados y ver instantáneamente oportunidades que le pueden hacer mucho dinero. Durante los últimos 25 años, Tom DeMark ha inventado docenas de indicadores técnicos patentados diseñados para hacer precisamente eso. Ahora Tom ha aceptado compartir sus armas comerciales más potentes en este emocionante nuevo taller disponible sólo en Futures Learning Center. Aquí es lo que you'ѓВўГўвЂљВ¬ГўвЂћВўll aprender:
Volumen 1: Operaciones comerciales exageradas
Identificación de zonas de bajo riesgo en prácticamente cualquier mercado Cómo identificar potenciales inversiones de tendencia cuando se ha identificado una zona de compra o venta de bajo riesgo Usando los indicadores de Tom para localizar potenciales inversiones de tendencia Combinando los indicadores de Tom con filtros adicionales para mejorar su mercado sincronización
Volumen 2: Identificación de las vueltas del mercado ante la multitud
La identificación de las partes superiores y inferiores antes de que otros comerciantes detectarlos Aplicación de las dos fases de secuencial a los gráficos de precios Determinar si una zona de bajo riesgo de compra o venta podría tener éxito o si la tendencia anterior continuará? Donde dibujar la linea? Y cuándo descalificar una zona de compra o venta de bajo riesgo previamente identificada antes de que se produzca una confirmación del comercio
Volumen 3: Anticipando los cambios de tendencias para grandes ganancias
Cómo anticipar los cambios de tendencia potenciales más rápidamente Identificación de las zonas de agotamiento de precios con TD Combo Cómo utilizar TD Combo con TD Sequential para identificar las zonas de bajo riesgo de compra y venta Introducción a TDST, la contribución más importante de Tom? De apoyo y de resistencia Utilizando TDST para determinar si la fase de Cuenta atrás de TD Sequential o TD Combo se completará
Volumen 4: Proyección de tops y fondos
Cálculo y aplicación de TD Trend Factor a los gráficos de precios Uso de TD Trend Factor para predecir los objetivos de alta probabilidad de subida y bajada Proyección de retrocesos y tops o fondos usando TD Trend Factor Aplicación de Retracement Relativo a recientes avances de precios o declina para determinar dónde corto - Los niveles de soporte y resistencia a largo plazo pueden ocurrir Cómo utilizar Absolute Retracement para calcular los niveles de soporte para los mercados que se están negociando en máximos históricos.
Volumen 5: Identificar las tendencias reales de Trendline
Utilizar los breakouts de la línea de tendencia para crear indicadores consistentes Cómo identificar las fallas falsas y las zonas de agotamiento de precios con más precisión Identificación y construcción de TD Lines y su uso para confirmar zonas de compra o venta de bajo riesgo Combinando TD Diff con TD Open para confirmar la identificación de TD Sequential y TD Combo de bajo riesgo para comprar y vender zonas
Volumen 6: Determinación de la duración de los movimientos del mercado
Uso de los indicadores de Tom para determinar la duración de los movimientos del mercado Cómo utilizar una técnica de media móvil simple para confirmar un cambio de tendencia cuando se ha identificado una zona de compra o venta de bajo riesgo Utilizando los canales TD para alertarle sobre un posible cambio en la dirección De una tendencia. Y cómo aprovechar la oportunidad cuando se produce ¿Cómo construir su propio oscilador utilizando un shell de oscilador? Identificación de posibles rupturas de precios mediante un enfoque de compresión de precios
¿Pensar Penny Stocks es demasiado arriesgado para tocar? Espere hasta que usted oiga cómo cambié $ 12.415 en $ 2 millones todo dentro de algunos años negociando millares sobre millares de estas compañías minúsculas sin usar cualquier apalancamiento. Y ni siquiera soy tan bueno de un comerciante, he sido siempre demasiado codicioso e indisciplinado para mi propio bien. Imagínese saber exactamente qué hacer, pero nunca tener la paciencia de esperar a que todas las variables correctas se alineen. Se ha hecho enloquecedor, he hecho millones, pero también he dejado muchos millones más sobre la mesa.
Imagínese tener una conversación en profundidad con no uno, pero las docenas de los comerciantes más grandes del mundo s.
Jack Schwager tiene, y sus tres best-sellers Market Wizards libros revelan secretos íntimos de las superestrellas comerciales. Ahora ha filtrado años de investigación en profundidad en un taller de estudio casero asombrosamente comprensivo.
¿Quieres aprender a negociar acciones como un PROFESIONAL? ¿Estás cansado de ser como los inversores típicos que compran una acción y luego simplemente aferrarse a ella, esperando que va a subir?
Aprenda a subir y bajar del mercado. Si el mercado está para arriba. Hacia abajo o hacia los lados, puede utilizar las opciones de comercio para salir adelante. Este curso le dará más estrategias para usar para manejar el riesgo y ayudarle a alcanzar sus metas financieras. Usted aprenderá varias estrategias conservadoras que pueden aplicarse de diferentes maneras. Incluso en sus cuentas de jubilación.
La serie de vídeo definitiva para aplastar 200 No Limit Holdeml!
Los resultados de irunlucky durante el año pasado. ¡Él ESTABLECE a 7.28bb / 100 más de medio millón de manos!
También ganó $ 136,304.76 en un año!
¿Cuáles son los secretos de su éxito?
Mi nombre es Joe Corona y en los últimos 23 años, he hecho mi vida a tiempo completo de comercio en los mercados de opciones. Comencé mi carrera en la CBOE en 1982, dirigí la mesa de operaciones de Tony Saliba durante 3 años y medio y ahora llevo a cabo una operación de trading y consultoría especializada que se especializa en la negociación de derivados europeos y asiáticos. También he entrenado personalmente cientos de opciones y comerciantes de derivados para algunas de las mayores firmas financieras institucionales en el mundo.
Breadth and Sentiment Indicadores para Ganar Swing y Posición Trading le diferenciará de aquellos que se pierden en las noticias del día a día procedentes de los jefes de hablar para hacer sus decisiones de swing y tiempo de inversión. Si desea saber lo que los fondos de cobertura, fondos mutuos y otras intuiciones de dinero grande están utilizando para sus decisiones de tiempo de mercado, estos son los DVD que le mostrará. En estos DVDs, aprenderá qué indicadores de amplitud y sentimiento utilizar, cómo construirlos y ponerlos juntos para un método de tiempo de mercado que no aprenderá en ningún otro lugar. No deje pasar esta oportunidad de reunir el mismo método de reconocer los puntos de inflexión del mercado que Greg ha demostrado a través de los años en su global y ampliamente seguido Gráfico de la Semana.
Chris Manning es un experto internacionalmente aclamado en el uso de patrones en el mercado de valores. Technology Trading Magazine nombró a su seminario el Seminario de Negociación Número uno en el 2000 & # 8221 ;. A lo largo de tres días Chris demuestra el conocimiento adquirido durante años de modelado, pruebas e implementación de diferentes estrategias. Muchos enfoques diferentes están cubiertos y una plétora de fuentes se combinan para concisamente dar al asistente el conocimiento que necesitan en cada área & # 8211; Cada página de los manuales proporcionados representa la suma de lecturas y consolidaciones considerables.
Breadth Indicadores Internos: Swing Ganador & amp; Posición Trading le diferenciará de los que se pierden en el día a día las noticias que vienen de los cabezas que hablan para hacer sus decisiones de swing y tiempo de inversión. Si desea saber lo que los fondos de cobertura, fondos mutuos y otras intuiciones de dinero grande están utilizando para sus decisiones de tiempo de mercado, este es el video que le mostrará. En este video, aprenderá qué indicadores de amplitud y sentimiento usar, cómo construirlos y reunirlos para un método de sincronización de mercado que no aprenderá en ningún otro lugar. No deje pasar esta oportunidad de reunir el mismo método de reconocer los puntos de giro del mercado que Greg ha demostrado a lo largo de los años en su global y ampliamente seguido Gráfico de la semana.
Por último, usted puede descubrir secretos previamente disponibles sólo a los comerciantes de dinero grande a un costo de $ 100.000 o más!
Imagínese lo que sería como si pudiera escanear los mercados y ver instantáneamente oportunidades que le pueden hacer mucho dinero. Durante los últimos 25 años, Tom DeMark ha inventado docenas de indicadores técnicos patentados diseñados para hacer precisamente eso. Ahora Tom ha aceptado compartir sus armas comerciales más potentes en este emocionante nuevo taller disponible sólo en Futures Learning Center. Esto es lo que aprenderá:
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Tom DeMark - Indicadores de comercio para el siglo 21
Tom DeMark - Indicadores de comercio para el Siglo XXI 6xDVDRip | MP4 / AVC,
644 kb / s | 640x480 | 07:32:00 | Inglés: AAC, 96 kb / s (2 canales) | 2.35 GB Género: Trading
Por último, puede descubrir secretos disponibles anteriormente sólo a los comerciantes de dinero grande a un costo de $ 100.000 o más! Imagínese lo que sería como si pudiera escanear los mercados y ver instantáneamente oportunidades que le pueden hacer mucho dinero. Durante los últimos 25 años, Tom DeMark ha inventado docenas de indicadores técnicos patentados diseñados para hacer precisamente eso. Ahora Tom ha aceptado compartir sus armas comerciales más potentes en este emocionante nuevo taller disponible sólo en Futures Learning Center. Esto es lo que aprenderá:
Volumen 1: Operaciones comerciales exageradas
Identificación de zonas de bajo riesgo en prácticamente cualquier mercado Cómo identificar potenciales inversiones de tendencia cuando se ha identificado una zona de compra o venta de bajo riesgo Utilizando los indicadores de Tom para localizar posibles inversiones de tendencia Combinando los indicadores de Tom con filtros adicionales para mejorar su oportunidad de mercado
Volumen 2: Identificación de las vueltas del mercado ante la multitud
La identificación de las partes superiores y inferiores antes de que otros comerciantes detectarlos Aplicación de las dos fases de secuencial a los gráficos de precios Determinar si una zona de bajo riesgo de compra o venta podría tener éxito o si la tendencia anterior continuará? ¿Dónde 'dibujar la línea' y cuándo descalificar una zona de compra o venta de bajo riesgo previamente identificada antes de que se realice una confirmación de la operación
Volumen 3: Anticipando los cambios de tendencias para grandes ganancias
Cómo anticipar los cambios potenciales de las tendencias más rápidamente Identificación de las zonas de agotamiento de los precios con TD Combo Cómo utilizar TD Combo con TD Sequential para identificar las zonas de compra y venta de bajo riesgo Introducción a TDST, la contribución más significativa de Tom a la sincronización del mercado. Zonas de resistencia Usar TDST para determinar si la fase de Cuenta atrás de TD Sequential o TD Combo se completará
Volumen 4: Proyección de tops y fondos
Cálculo y aplicación de TD Trend Factor a los gráficos de precios Uso de TD Trend Factor para predecir los objetivos de alta probabilidad de subida y bajada Proyección de retracements y tops o fondos usando TD Trend Factor Aplicación de Retracement Relativo a recientes avances de precios o declina para determinar dónde corto - Los niveles de soporte y resistencia a largo plazo pueden ocurrir Cómo utilizar Absolute Retracement para calcular los niveles de soporte para los mercados que se están negociando en máximos históricos
Volumen 5: Identificar las tendencias reales de Trendline
Utilizar los breakouts de la línea de tendencia para crear indicadores consistentes Cómo identificar las fallas falsas y las zonas de agotamiento de precios con más precisión Identificación y construcción de TD Lines y su uso para confirmar zonas de compra o venta de bajo riesgo Combinación de TD Diff con TD Open para confirmar la identificación de TD Sequential y TD Combo de bajo riesgo para comprar y vender zonas
Volumen 6: Determinación de la duración de los movimientos del mercado
Uso de los indicadores de Tom para determinar la duración de los movimientos del mercado Cómo utilizar una técnica de media móvil simple para confirmar un cambio de tendencia cuando se ha identificado una zona de compra o venta de bajo riesgo Utilizando los canales TD para avisarle de un posible cambio en la dirección de un tendencia. Y cómo aprovechar la oportunidad cuando se produce Cómo construir su propio oscilador utilizando un oscilador 'shell' Identificar posibles rupturas de precios utilizando un enfoque de compresión de precios
Bienvenido a la mejor colección de películas (Inglés, Alemán, Francés, Español), el mejor software, el mejor video eLearning y muchos-muchos más: LINK No te olvides de revisar mi blog! ¡Actualizado regularmente!
Tom DeMark. Indicadores de comercio para el siglo XXI
Trading Indicates del siglo XXI Por Tom Demark viene en 6 videos y wkbooks lanzados a principios de los años 2000 Por fin puede descubrir secretos disponibles anteriormente sólo a los comerciantes de Big-Money a un costo de $ 100000 Me! Imagínese lo que sería como si pudiera escanear los mercados y ver instantáneamente opptunities que pueden hacerle mucho dinero. Durante los últimos 25 años, Tom DeMark ha inventado decenas de marcas técnicas patentadas diseñadas para hacer precisamente eso. Ahora Tom ha accedido a compartir sus armas comerciales más potentes en esta excitante nueva wkshop disponible sólo en Futures Learning Center. Cómo identificar las posibles inversiones de tendencia cuando se ha identificado una zona de venta de compra de bajo riesgo Utilizando las indicaciones de Tom para localizar las potenciales reversiones de las tendencias Combinando las indicaciones de Tom con filtros adicionales para mejorar su sincronización del mercado Volumen 2: Identificación de las vueltas del mercado Befe la muchedumbre Identificación de tops y de fondos antes de que otros comerciantes los manchan Aplicación de las dos fases de secuencial a las cartas de precio Determinar si una zona de venta de bajo riesgo podría ser exitosa Si continúa la tendencia anterior * Donde 'dibujar la línea' y cuándo descalificar una zona de venta de compra de bajo riesgo anteriormente identificada antes de que se confirme el comercio Volumen 3: Anticipando los cambios en las tendencias f Grandes beneficios Cómo anticipar cambios potenciales de tendencia rápidamente Identificar Zonas de agotamiento de precios usando TD Combo Cómo usar TD Combo con TD Sequential para identificar zonas de bajo riesgo de compra y venta Introducción a TDST La contribución más significativa de Tom a la sincronización de mercado Definición de inversiones de tendencia y zonas de apoyo Utilice TDST para determinar si no la cuenta atrás Fase de TD Sequential TD Combo se completará Volumen 4: Proyección Tops and Bottoms Cálculo y aplicación de TD Trend Hecho a gráficos de precios Utilizando TD Trend Hecho para predecir alta probabilidad de los objetivos ascendente y descendente Proyectar retracements y topes de fondos usando TD Trend Fact Aplicación de Retracement Relativo A los recientes avances de precios se reduce a determinar dónde sht y / a largo plazo suppt y los niveles de resistencia puede ocurrir Cómo utilizar Absolute Retracement para calcular los niveles de suppt f mercados que están negociando en todos los tiempos máximos Volumen 5: Identificar Real Trendline Breakouts Usando trendline breakouts Para crear indicaciones consistentes Cómo identificar fugas falsas y zonas de agotamiento de precios con mi precisión Identificar y construir TD Lines y usarlas para confirmar zonas de venta de compra de bajo riesgo Combinación de TD Diff con TD Open para confirmar la identificación de TD Sequential y TD Combo low - Comprar y vender zonas de riesgo Volumen 6: Determinación de la duración de los movimientos del mercado Utilizar las indicaciones de Tom para determinar la duración de los movimientos del mercado Cómo utilizar una técnica de media móvil simple para confirmar un cambio de tendencia cuando se ha identificado una zona de venta de bajo riesgo de compra Utilizar los canales TD para alertarle sobre un posible cambio en la dirección de una tendencia * y cómo aprovechar la oportunidad cuando se produce Cómo construir su propio oscilador usando un shell oscilatorio Identificar rupturas potenciales de precios utilizando un enfoque de compresión de precios Descargar De wupload. com http://www. wupload. com/file/33308104/Tom. DeMark.-.Trading. Indicators. for. the.21th. Century. part01.rar http://www. wupload. com/file /33308995/Tom. DeMark.-.Trading. Indicators. for. the.21th. Century. part02.rar http://www. wupload. com/file/33309180/Tom. DeMark.-.Trading. Indicators. for. The.21th. Century. part03.rar http://www. wupload. com/file/33309866/Tom. DeMark.-.Trading. Indicators. for. the.21th. Century. part04.rar http: // www. wupload. com/file/33309992/Tom. DeMark.-.Trading. Indicators. for. the.21th. Century. part05.rar http://www. wupload. com/file/33309845/Tom. DeMark.-.Trading. Indicadores. para. el.21th. Century. part06.rar http://www. wupload. com/file/33310502/Tom. DeMark.-.Trading. Indicators. for. the.21th. Century. part07.rar http : //www. wupload. com/file/33310099/Tom. DeMark.-.Trading. Indicators. for. the.21th. Century. part08.rar http://www. wupload. com/file/33310685/Tom. DeMark.- Trading. Indicators. for. the.21th. Century. part09.rar http://www. wupload. com/file/33309832/Tom. DeMark.-.Trading. Indicators. for. the.21th. Century. part10.rar
Dow el ory para el siglo XXI. Indicadores técnicos para mejorar sus inversiones.
Schannep, «Teoría de Dow para el siglo XXI. Indicadores técnicos para mejorar sus resultados de inversión ». 1.11 MBDow Teoría para el siglo 21 incluye todo lo que el serio inversor necesita.
Tom DeMark - Indicadores de comercio para el siglo 21 (formación en vídeo)
Tom DeMark - Indicadores de comercio para el Siglo XXI 6xDVDRip | MP4 / AVC,
644 kb / s. Durante los últimos 25 años, Tom DeMark ha inventado decenas de indicadores técnicos patentados diseñados para.
La fuerza de los materiales: una nueva unidad para el siglo XXI
De Materiales: Una Nueva Teoría Unificada para el Siglo XXI Autor: Surya Patnaik Dale HopkinsPublisher. Métodos con limitaciones. A través de la investigación, los autores han llegado a comprender la compatibilidad.
Harsh K. Gupta, Sukanta Roy - Geo la energía rmal: un recurso alternativo para el 2.
La energía geotérmica: un recurso alternativo para el siglo 21 Editor: Elsevier Science | Número de. Energía: un recurso alternativo para el siglo 21 proporciona una lectura y coherente.
Wiley Intermarket Análisis Técnico Estrategias de Negociación para el
Enjoy6.65 MiB (6969526 Bytes) thepiratebay. org
Tom DeMark †"Indicadores de comercio para el siglo XXI 6xDVDRip | MP4 / AVC,
644 kb / s | 640x480 | 07:32:00 | Inglés: AAC, 96 kb / s (2 canales) | 2.35 GB Género: Trading
Por fin, usted puede descubrir los secretos disponibles anteriormente sólo a los comerciantes de Big-Money a un costo de $ 100.000 o más! Imagínese lo que sería como si pudiera escanear los mercados y ver instantáneamente oportunidades que le pueden hacer mucho dinero. Durante los últimos 25 años, Tom DeMark ha inventado docenas de indicadores técnicos patentados diseñados para hacer precisamente eso.
Breadth and Sentiment Indicadores para Ganar Swing y Posición Trading le diferenciará de aquellos que se pierden en las noticias del día a día procedentes de los jefes de hablar para hacer sus decisiones de swing y tiempo de inversión.
12 simples indicadores técnicos que funcionan realmente DVDRip | AVI / DivX, 300 kb / s | 512x336 | 01:18:49 | Inglés: MP3, 128 kb / s (2 canales) | 236 MB Género: Trading
Un autor de dos veces y mejor vendido y escritor de un comentario semanal Mark Larson es un experto comerciante dispuesto a compartir los secretos de sus herramientas técnicas favoritas.
Udemy - Forex Trading con indicadores profesionales de TOP traders MP4 | Video: 1280x720 | 83 kbps | 44 KHz | Duración: 4 Horas | 533 MB Género: eLearning | Idioma ingles
DEBE TENER indicadores para usar MT4 para Trading Forex. ¡17 indicadores avanzados por los comerciantes profesionales incluidos! Plus Bonos
Udemy - Aprenda y descargue los 40 mejores indicadores MT4 MP4 | Video: 1280x720 | 64 kbps | 48 KHz | Duración: 4 Horas | 2.28 GB Género: eLearning | Idioma ingles
The Trader's Guide to Key Economic Indicators, tercera edición de Richard Yamarone English | 2012 | ISBN: 1118074009 | 320 páginas | PDF | 5.3 MB
Indicadores Ambientales Por Robert H. Armon, Osmo Hänninen 2015 | 1106 Páginas | ISBN: 9401794987 | PDF | 21 MB
Indicadores Ambientales Por Robert H. Armon, Osmo Hänninen 2015 | 1106 Páginas | ISBN: 9401794987 | PDF | 21 MB
Indicadores Ambientales Por Robert H. Armon, Osmo Hänninen 2015 | 1106 Páginas | ISBN: 9401794987 | PDF | 21 MB
3 maneras de beneficiarse de la cartografía del mercado de valores en el siglo XXI
Las técnicas de cartografía han evolucionado considerablemente a partir de los comerciantes del siglo 17 en Japón que utilizaron por primera vez los candelabros para rastrear el mercado del arroz. Incluso desde el advenimiento del "mercado de valores moderno", las nuevas realidades técnicas son enteramente diferentes que el tiempo de Charles Dow y de los primeros antepasados del NYSE que utilizaron gráficos mano-elaborados para su análisis. Hoy en día, los comerciantes tienen una miríada de técnicas y herramientas de cartografía del mercado de valores disponibles para ellos. Entonces, ¿cómo hacer sentido de todos estos gráficos y encontrar maneras de ser consistentemente rentable en los mercados del siglo 21? Aquí hay 3 formas de beneficiarse de la cartografía del mercado de valores en el siglo XXI.
Ignorar el ruido del mercado
En primer lugar, confíe en las cartas que elija utilizar. Los técnicos sostienen que tienen una ventaja porque tienen una idea de lo que las masas comerciales están pensando en las pistas que dejan en una tabla de precios. El precio incluye todo. Aunque los números fundamentales son una faceta importante en la formulación de precios, el comercio se centra más en la psicología de masas de los comerciantes que en las cifras de oferta / demanda o estadísticas. Un comerciante que está haciendo o perder dinero es probable que reaccione de una manera específica que será similar a cómo otros comerciantes en otros tiempos y otras condiciones fundamentales han reaccionado en el pasado. Debido a la tendencia de los seres humanos a responder a los acontecimientos como lo han hecho antes, los analistas técnicos estudian los patrones de precios en los gráficos para detectar casos en los que los comerciantes podrían reaccionar como lo hicieron en el pasado.
Por lo tanto, si bien es extremadamente importante reconocer que las cartas no mienten, generalmente se basan en datos pasados y esto no puede necesariamente predecir la dirección futura del mercado.
Lleve sus técnicos al siguiente nivel
Dado que gran parte de la información de las cartas tradicionales se basa en precios que ya se han producido, producen indicadores retardados, es decir, pueden reflejar bien lo que pasó en el pasado, pero no son de mucha ayuda para predecir precios futuros. Por supuesto, eso es lo que los comerciantes quisieran saber más y por qué el mercado de valores del siglo XXI ha involucrado a técnicas más especializadas para predecir los precios futuros.
Estas técnicas incluyen la onda de Elliott - que dice que el precio se mueve en tres ondas de impulso y dos ondas de corrección, y las ondas anteriores pueden ser utilizadas para proyectar los objetivos de precios y el calendario de las ondas futuras y los números de Fibonacci y ratios - una serie matemática de números = 2, 2 +1 = 3, 3 + 2 = 5, 3 + 5 = 8, etc.) y una relación entre ellos (0,618 y 0,382 son los más comunes) puede ayudar a determinar el retroceso de precios y los niveles de extensión.
Una forma aún mejor es utilizar gráficos que emplean indicadores predictivos para pronosticar los futuros precios de las acciones. VantagePoint transforma las medias móviles tradicionales en indicadores predictivos y líderes del mercado. Mediante el uso de una combinación de datos de precios anteriores y sus tecnologías de predicción, los indicadores de VantagePoint le dan aviso avanzado con 1-3 días de anticipación al cambio de tendencia de una acción.
Hacer sus Gráficos Global
Teniendo en cuenta la naturaleza entrelazada de los mercados mundiales de hoy, los gráficos de acciones tienen que ser cada vez más complejas para no sólo el seguimiento de un precio de la cuestión, sino para seguir el impacto de otros activos que pueden afectar a las acciones que están negociando.
Con sus tecnologías de vanguardia, VantagePoint extrae datos de mercado global basados en el análisis de intermercados y aplica las capacidades de reconocimiento de patrones de redes neuronales para producir indicadores propietarios líderes que miran hacia adelante, no hacia atrás para las acciones que comercializan.
Por ejemplo, cuando usted está mirando un gráfico para Tesla (TSLA), una confluencia de mercados globales (del petróleo crudo al yen japonés a otras acciones en el sector de automóvil de los EEUU) afectará el precio de la acción. Los indicadores predictivos que se encuentran en VantagePoint incorporan todo este análisis de intermarket para que tenga gráficos con indicadores que le dan una verdadera perspectiva del siglo 21 en los mercados que pueden ayudarle a obtener ganancias consistentes.
Dinos qué piensas
Manual de Medición de Gas Natural
Gulf Publishing Company | 2006 | ISBN: 1933762005 | 496 páginas | PDF | 18 MB
El gas natural se está convirtiendo en un componente cada vez más importante del suministro de energía de nuestro mundo a medida que más y más países recurren al gas natural como una de sus principales fuentes de energía. Junto con su compañero de Gulf Publishing Company, el manual de ingeniería de gas natural, estos dos libros forman la biblioteca básica para cualquier ingeniero que trabaja con gas natural hoy en día.
Bela G. Liptak: "Instrument Engineers" Handbook, vol. 1: Medición y Análisis de Procesos "
Editor: CRC Press; 4 edición (27 de junio de 2003) | ISBN: 0849310830 | Páginas: 1868 | PDF | 20.36 MB
Jason Perl, Thomas R. DeMark, "Indicadores DeMark" English | 2008 | ISBN: 1576603148 | PDF | Páginas: 225 | 4,1 mb
El Manual Internacional de Innovación de Routledge por Larisa V. Shavinina English | 2013 | ISBN: 0415682215 | 664 páginas | PDF | 4 MB
El Manual de Ciencia, Tecnología e Innovación Global de Daniele Archibugi y Andrea Filippetti English | 2015 | ISBN: 111873906X | 624 páginas | PDF | 25,8 MB
El Manual de Ciencia, Tecnología e Innovación Global de Daniele Archibugi y Andrea Filippetti English | 2015 | ISBN: 111873906X | 624 páginas | PDF | 25,8 MB
El Manual de Ciencia, Tecnología e Innovación Global de Daniele Archibugi y Andrea Filippetti English | 2015 | ISBN: 111873906X | 624 páginas | PDF | 25,8 MB
Manual de Medición de Multimedios en Psicología por Michael Eid y Ed Diener English | 2005 | ISBN-10: 1591473187 | 553 páginas | PDF | 51 MB
Manual de Aerosoles: Medición, dosimetría y efectos sobre la salud (2ª edición) Por Lev S. Ruzer, Naomi H. Harley English | 2013 | 666 Páginas | ISBN: 1439855102 | PDF | 19 MB
Desde la introducción de los indicadores de calcio fluorescente y el posterior desarrollo de capacidades para el monitoreo en tiempo real y la formación de imágenes de los movimientos de calcio en las células intactas estudiadas aisladamente, in situ e in vivo, se ha iluminado el complejo y vital calcio, Señales para ser excelentes reporteros universales de actividad celular.
Manual de Aerosoles: Medición, dosimetría y efectos sobre la salud (2ª edición) Por Lev S. Ruzer, Naomi H. Harley 2013 | 666 Páginas | ISBN: 1439855102 | PDF | 19 MB
Hoy en día, hay cientos literarios de personas que están familiarizados con la PNL y cómo funciona. Sin embargo, para aquellos que son nuevos para él, el aprendizaje de las cuerdas puede, a veces, llegar a ser muy tedioso. Esto no es así con 'Rapport Master'. La creación de John Vincent, 'Rapport Master' es una forma muy interesante de presentar teorías para que no te abruman: cada día, recibirás una presentación en video. Estos videos duran entre 5 y 10 minutos y se le presenta un tema que le dejará energizado y listo para enfrentar el día. Cada vídeo se basa en los permisos y, cuando haya terminado, usted habría pasado por unos 70 videos. Los temas van desde aprender a usar el tono de voz adecuado y observar los grandes detalles de una imagen para modelar el papel del éxito y aprender a dejar a la gente en un estado excelente. Como tal, este programa es sólo para aquellos que son serios acerca de hacerse cargo de sus vidas y se comprometió a hacer cambios. En última instancia, este programa único será de gran beneficio para usted.
Descubrió peligrosos secretos que no se suponía que debía saber & # 8230; & # 8230; Y se escapó con el conocimiento prohibido que las grietas del código en la riqueza de Internet prácticamente ilimitado!
Mi nombre es Adam Short, Presidente y CEO de Niche Profit Classroom. No deje de hablar palabras.
El nicho de marketing en Internet está fuera de control.
Hey there fellow warrior.
Paul Nicholls here.
I have been asked many times “what is the easiest way to make money online”. Is it email marketing? Is it affiliate marketing? Is it youtube marketing? Or is there some special bit of software that you can use to flood your account with tonnes of sales?
Designing HTML email can be quite challenging, considering the limited capabilities of many email clients (readers). In contrast, most new email readers supports many of the latest trends in web design. What to do…? Enter Responsive HTML Email. This course will show you how to design and construct an HTML email design that will render properly in such email readers and Outlook 2003 and Gmail, all the way through modern Android, Apple, and Windows phones. We’ll also explore online tools and services that will help you test your campaigns. Learn what is possible with HTML email.
You’ve learned a little Javascript, but you still look at websites with slick, smooth and elegant user interfaces and want to know how web developers create that. The answer is simple: Ajax. You’ve probably heard of it, but you’ve always wondered “What is Ajax”? Ajax is simply Asynchronous Javascript and XML. By taking our Ajax course, you can make pages on your web application respond quickly, and with a minimum of screen refreshes.
Name Product . Infinite Skills – Building Mobile Websites with WordPress Training Video With Geoff Blake COST . $49.95 Author . Geoff Blake Size . 918 MB Website . _http://www. infiniteskills. com/training/building-mobile-websites-with-wordpress. html
Building Mobile Websites with WordPress Training Video A Practical WordPress Training Course That Teaches Real World Skills
In this project-based Building Mobile Websites with WordPress video tutorial series, you’ll quickly have relevant skills for real-world applications.
Breadth and Sentiment Indicators for Winning Swing and Position Trading will set you apart from those that are lost in the day-to-day news coming from the talking heads to make their swing and investment time decisions. If you want to learn what hedge funds, mutual funds and other big money intuitions are using for their market timing decisions these are the DVDs that will show you. In these DVDs, you will learn what breadth and sentiment indicators to use, how to construct them and put them together for a market timing method you will not learn anywhere else. Don’t pass up this opportunity to put together the same method of recognizing market turning points that Greg has demonstrated over the years in his globally and widely followed Chart of the Week.
Chris Manning is an internationally acclaimed expert on the use of patterns in the stock market. Technology Trading Magazine named his seminar the “Number One Trading Seminar in 2000”. Over the course of three days Chris demonstrates knowledge gained over years of modelling, testing and implementing different strategies. Many different approaches are covered and a plethora of sources are combined to concisely give the attendee the knowledge they need in each area – each page of the manuals provided is claimed to represent the sum of considerable reading and consolidation.
Breadth Internal Indicators: Winning Swing & Position Trading will set you apart from those that are lost in the day-to-day news coming from the talking heads to make their swing and investment time decisions. If you want to learn what hedge funds, mutual funds and other big money intuitions are using for their market timing decisions this is the video that will show you. In this video, you will learn what breadth and sentiment indicators to use, how to construct them and put them together for a market timing method you will not learn anywhere else. Don’t pass up this opportunity to put together the same method of recognizing market turning points that Greg has demonstrated over the years in his globally and widely followed Chart of the Week.
At last, you can discover secrets previously available only to big-money traders at a cost of $100,000 or more!
Imagine what it would be like if you could scan the markets and instantly see opportunities that can make you big money. During the last 25 years, Tom DeMark has invented dozens of proprietary technical indicators designed to do just that. Now Tom has agreed to share his most potent trading weapons in this exciting new workshop available only from Futures Learning Center. Here is what you’ll learn:
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U. S. Government Required Disclaimer – Commodity Futures Trading Commission Futures and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. Debe ser consciente de los riesgos y estar dispuesto a aceptarlos para invertir en los mercados de futuros y opciones. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose. Esto no es ni una solicitud ni una oferta de compra / venta de futuros u opciones. No se está haciendo ninguna representación de que cualquier cuenta tenga o sea probable obtener ganancias o pérdidas similares a las discutidas en este sitio web. El desempeño pasado de cualquier sistema o metodología comercial no es necesariamente indicativo de resultados futuros.
CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. DESCONOCIDO UN REGISTRO DE RENDIMIENTO REAL, LOS RESULTADOS SIMULADOS NO REPRESENTAN COMERCIO REAL. TAMBIÉN, DADO QUE LOS COMERCIOS NO HAN SIDO EJECUTADOS, LOS RESULTADOS PUEDEN TENERSE COMPARTIDOS POR EL IMPACTO, SI CUALQUIERA, DE CIERTOS FACTORES DE MERCADO, COMO LA FALTA DE LIQUIDEZ. LOS PROGRAMAS DE COMERCIO SIMULADOS EN GENERAL ESTÁN SUJETOS AL FACTOR DE QUE SEAN DISEÑADOS CON EL BENEFICIO DE HINDSIGHT. NO SE HACE NINGUNA REPRESENTACIÓN QUE CUALQUIER CUENTA TENDRÁ O ES POSIBLE PARA LOGRAR GANANCIAS O PÉRDIDAS SIMILARES A LOS MOSTRADOS.
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1013 kb/s | 512x384 | 10:21:32 | English: MP3, 128 kb/s (2 ch) | + PDF Guides | 4.11 GB Genre: Trading
What are Japanese Candlesticks and why should traders use them? This brand new video workshop will help you understand and master this powerful tool with high impact results. Steve Nison is the premiere expert on Candlesticks in the world and now you can benefit from his expertise in the comfort of your own home. Filmed at a unique one-day seminar he gave for a select group of traders you"ll find discover - The Most Import Candle Patterns - Using the Power of Candles for Online Trading - Combining western technical indicators with CandleStick Charts for increased profits - Reducing risk with Candlestick Charts - Swing & Day Trading with Candlestick Charts and so much more. It"s an incredible opportunity to have the foremost expert guide you to trading success now at a great savings.
Steve Nison-Strategies for Profiting with Japanese Candlestick Charts 4xDVDRip | Español | ASIN: B000WVU5Q6 | AVI | XviD 480x368 | MP3 103 kbps | 10 hrs 22 min | 4.12 GB Genre: eLearning, Trading
What are Japanese Candlesticks - and why should traders use them? Japanese candlestick charts are a versatile tool that can be combined with any other technical tool to help refine a technician"s market analysis. They are commonly used for speculation and hedging, for futures, equities or anywhere technical analysis is applied.
Tom DeMark – Trading Indicators for the 21th Century 6xDVDRip | MP4 / AVC,
644 kb/s | 640x480 | 07:32:00 | English: AAC, 96 kb/s (2 ch) | 2.35 GB Genre: Trading
At Last, You Can Discover Secrets Previously Available Only to Big-Money Traders at a Cost of $100,000 or More! Imagine what it would be like if you could scan the markets and instantly see opportunities that can make you big money. During the last 25 years, Tom DeMark has invented dozens of proprietary technical indicators designed to do just that.
1013 kb/s | 512x384 | 10:21:32 | English: MP3, 128 kb/s (2 ch) | + PDF Guides | 4.11 GB Genre: Trading
What are Japanese Candlesticks and why should traders use them? This brand new video workshop will help you understand and master this powerful tool with high impact results. Steve Nison is the premiere expert on Candlesticks in the world and now you can benefit from his expertise in the comfort of your own home. Filmed at a unique one-day seminar he gave for a select group of traders youll find discover - The Most Import Candle Patterns - Using the Power of Candles for Online Trading - Combining western technical indicators with CandleStick Charts for increased profits - Reducing risk with Candlestick Charts - Swing & Day Trading with Candlestick Charts and so much more. Its an incredible opportunity to have the foremost expert guide you to trading success now at a great savings.
12 Simple Technical Indicators that Really Work DVDRip | AVI / DivX, 300 kb/s | 512x336 | 01:18:49 | English: MP3, 128 kb/s (2 ch) | 236 MB Genre: Trading
A two-time, best-selling author and writer of a weekly commentary Mark Larson is an expert trader willing to share the secrets of his favorite technical tools.
GRAFster 7.0.1.7 | 2.1 MB Updated GRAFster7 is an easy to use charting and analysis application. Use it to quickly Description equities, indices, futures, mutual funds, currencies or any time series in a compatible data format. No need to be 'on line' all the time. Get your data with GimmeFreeData for free. It offers most of the usual technical analysis indicators without being redundant, a few uncommon ones, and some for which you would have to pay plenty if it were not for GRAFster7. Why pay more? For just the cost of a round trip trade, avoid the hype, clutter and complexity - get charts fast without exposing yourself to feature shock. After all, the fundamental technical analysis tool is the ruler.
Udemy - Mastering Candlestick Charting MP4 | Video: 960x720 | 60 kbps | 44 KHz | Duration: 3 Hours | 187 MB Genre: eLearning | Idioma ingles
Identifying High Probability Trading Opportunities & Maximize Profits
GRAFster 7.0.1.8 | 2.1 MB
Updated GRAFster7 is an easy to use charting and analysis application. Use it to quickly Description equities, indices, futures, mutual funds, currencies or any time series in a compatible data format. No need to be 'on line' all the time. Get your data with GimmeFreeData for free. It offers most of the usual technical analysis indicators without being redundant, a few uncommon ones, and some for which you would have to pay plenty if it were not for GRAFster7. Why pay more? For just the cost of a round trip trade, avoid the hype, clutter and complexity - get charts fast without exposing yourself to feature shock. After all, the fundamental technical analysis tool is the ruler.
The Complete Guide to Technical Indicators 4xDVDRip | M4V/AVC,
1048 kb/s | 720x480 | Duration: 05:30:05 | English: AAC, 161 kb/s (2 ch) | 3.45 GB Genre: Trading
A complete course in understanding, choosing and using the best technical indicators for your trading style.
The Complete Guide to Technical Indicators 4xDVDRip | M4V/AVC,
1048 kb/s | 720x480 | Duration: 05:30:05 | English: AAC, 161 kb/s (2 ch) | 3.45 GB Genre: Trading
A complete course in understanding, choosing and using the best technical indicators for your trading style.
A Short Course in Technical Trading by Perry J. Kaufman English | 25 Jun. 2003 | ISBN: 0471268488 | 340 Pages | PDF | 28 MB
Learn to trade using technical analysis, market indicators, simple portfolio analysis, generally successful trading techniques, and common sense with this straightforward, accessible book.
Mark Larson - 12 Simple Technical Indicators: That Really Work 2007 | ISBN: 1592802907 | Español | 144 pages | PDF | 4 MB
Candlestick patterns: Winning the Day Trading Game! MP4 | Video: AVC 1280x720 | Audio: AAC 44KHz 2ch | Duration: 1.5 Hours | 277 MB Genre: eLearning | Idioma ingles
A-Z guide to charting analysis and trade idea generation using Candlestick patterns.
Mark Larson - 12 Simple Technical Indicators: That Really Work 2007 | ISBN: 1592802907 | Español | 144 pages | PDF | 4 MB
Transportation Indicators and Business Cycles (Contributions to Economic Analysis) by Kajal Lahiri English | 2010 | ISBN: 0857241478 | 210 pages | PDF | 1 MB
Traditional Candle Patterns
Classical rice market candle patterns, returning an integer value of -100 for bearish patterns, +100 for bullish patterns, and 0 for no pattern match. They use the current asset price series. All candle pattern functions are listed below in alphabetical order. They are based on the TA-Lib indicator library by Mario Fortier ( www. ta-lib. org ).
Disclaimer: All patterns had been developed for trading the Japanese rice market in the 18th century. Some traders believe that they are still valid for the 21th century financial markets. Problem is that the patterns were based on daily candles with limited market hours, and that a price curve can produce very different candles dependent on the time frame, the time zone, the bar offset, and the broker's price feed. Therefore rice candle patterns are mostly useless for today's 24-hour traded markets. For finding out which patterns work today, use the pattern analyzer .
CDL2Crows(): int
Two Crows, a bearish candle pattern.
CDL3BlackCrows(): int
Three Black Crows.
CDL3Inside(): int
Three Inside Up/Down.
CDL3LineStrike(): int
CDL3Outside(): int
Three Outside Up/Down.
CDL3StarsInSouth(): int
Three Stars In The South.
CDL3WhiteSoldiers(): int
Three Advancing White Soldiers.
CDLAbandonedBaby(var Penetration): int
Abandoned Baby. Parameters: Penetration (Percentage of penetration of a candle within another candle).
CDLAdvanceBlock(): int
CDLBeltHold(): int
CDLBreakaway(): int
Breakaway. Bullish + Bearish.
CDLClosingMarubozu(): int
CDLConcealBabysWall(): int
Concealing Baby Swallow.
CDLCounterAttack(): int
CDLDarkCloudCover(var Penetration): int
Dark Cloud Cover. Parameters: Penetration (Percentage of penetration of a candle within another candle).
CDLDoji(): int
Doji, single candle pattern. Trend reversal.
CDLDojiStar(): int
Doji Star. Bullish + Bearish.
CDLDragonflyDoji(): int
CDLEngulfing(): int
Engulfing Pattern. Bullish + Bearish.
CDLEveningDojiStar(var Penetration): int
Evening Doji Star. Parameters: Penetration (Percentage of penetration of a candle within another candle).
CDLEveningStar(var Penetration): int
Estrella de la tarde. Parameters: Penetration (Percentage of penetration of a candle within another candle).
CDLGapSideSideWhite(): int
Up/Down-gap side-by-side white lines.
CDLGravestoneDoji(): int
CDLHammer(): int
CDLHangingMan(): int
Hanging Man. Osuno.
CDLHarami(): int
Harami Pattern. Bullish + Bearish.
CDLHaramiCross(): int
Harami Cross Pattern.
CDLHignWave(): int
CDLHikkake(): int
Hikkake Pattern. Bullish + Bearish.
CDLHikkakeMod(): int
Modified Hikkake Pattern.
CDLHomingPigeon(): int
CDLIdentical3Crows(): int
Identical Three Crows.
CDLInNeck(): int
CDLInvertedHammer(): int
CDLKicking(): int
CDLKickingByLength(): int
Kicking - bull/bear determined by the longer marubozu.
CDLLadderBottom(): int
CDLLongLeggedDoji(): int
Long Legged Doji.
CDLLongLine(): int
Long Line Candle.
CDLMarubozu(): int
CDLMatchingLow(): int
CDLMatHold(var Penetration): int
Mat Hold. Parameters: Penetration (Percentage of penetration of a candle within another candle).
CDLMorningDojiStar(var Penetration): int
Morning Doji Star. Parameters: Penetration (Percentage of penetration of a candle within another candle).
CDLMorningStar(var Penetration): int
Morning Star. Parameters: Penetration (Percentage of penetration of a candle within another candle).
CDLOnNeck(): int
CDLPiercing(): int
CDLRickshawMan(): int
CDLRiseFall3Methods(): int
Rising/Falling Three Methods.
CDLSeperatingLines(): int
CDLShootingStar(): int
404 significa que el archivo no se encuentra. Si ya ha subido el archivo, el nombre puede estar mal escrito o está en una carpeta diferente.
Otras posibles causas
Puede obtener un error 404 para las imágenes porque tiene Hot Link Protection activado y el dominio no está en la lista de dominios autorizados.
Si va a su url temporal (http: // ip /
Username /) y obtener este error, tal vez un problema con el conjunto de reglas almacenadas en un archivo. htaccess. Puede intentar cambiar el nombre de ese archivo a. htaccess-backup y actualizar el sitio para ver si se resuelve el problema.
También es posible que haya borrado su raíz de documento de forma inadvertida o que su cuenta tenga que ser recreada. De cualquier manera, póngase en contacto con HostGator inmediatamente a través de teléfono o chat en vivo para que podamos diagnosticar el problema.
¿Estás usando WordPress? Consulte la Sección sobre errores 404 después de hacer clic en un enlace de WordPress.
Archivos perdidos o rotos
Cuando obtenga un error 404 asegúrese de comprobar la URL que está intentando utilizar en su navegador. Esto le dice al servidor qué recurso debe intentar solicitar.
En este ejemplo, el archivo debe estar en public_html / example / Example /
Observe que el CaSe es importante en este ejemplo. En plataformas que hacen cumplir la sensibilidad de mayúsculas y minúsculas y E xample no son las mismas ubicaciones.
Para los dominios addon, el archivo debe estar en public_html / addondomain. com / example / Example / y los nombres distinguen entre mayúsculas y minúsculas.
Broken Image
Cuando usted tiene una imagen que falta en su sitio usted puede ver una caja en su página con con una X roja donde la imagen falta. Haga clic derecho en la X y elija Propiedades. Las propiedades le dirán la ruta y el nombre de archivo que no se pueden encontrar.
Esto varía según el navegador, si no ves una casilla en tu página con una X roja, haz clic derecho en la página, luego selecciona Ver información de la página y ve a la pestaña Medios.
En este ejemplo, el archivo de imagen debe estar en public_html / images /
Observe que el CaSe es importante en este ejemplo. En plataformas que imponen la sensibilidad de mayúsculas y minúsculas PNG y png no son las mismas ubicaciones.
Al trabajar con WordPress, 404 Page Not Found los errores a menudo pueden ocurrir cuando un nuevo tema ha sido activado o cuando las reglas de reescritura en el archivo. Htaccess se han alterado.
When you encounter a 404 error in WordPress, you have two options for correcting it.
Option 1: Correct the Permalinks
Log in to WordPress.
From the left-hand navigation menu in WordPress, click Settings > Permalinks (Note the current setting. If you are using a custom structure, copy or save the custom structure somewhere.)
Select Default .
Click Save Settings .
Cambie la configuración de nuevo a la configuración anterior (antes de seleccionar Default). Vuelva a poner la estructura personalizada si tenía uno.
Click Save Settings .
Esto restablecerá los permalinks y solucionará el problema en muchos casos. If this doesn't work, you may need to edit your. htaccess file directly.
Option 2: Modify the. htaccess File
Add the following snippet of code to the top of your. htaccess file:
# BEGIN WordPress <IfModule mod_rewrite. c> RewriteEngine On RewriteBase / RewriteRule ^index. php$ - [L] RewriteCond % !-f RewriteCond % !-d RewriteRule. /index. php [L] </IfModule> # End WordPress
If your blog is showing the wrong domain name in links, redirecting to another site, or is missing images and style, these are all usually related to the same problem: you have the wrong domain name configured in your WordPress blog.
The. htaccess file contains directives (instructions) that tell the server how to behave in certain scenarios and directly affect how your website functions.
Redirects and rewriting URLs are two very common directives found in a. htaccess file, and many scripts such as WordPress, Drupal, Joomla and Magento add directives to the. htaccess so those scripts can function.
It is possible that you may need to edit the. htaccess file at some point, for various reasons. This section covers how to edit the file in cPanel, but not what may need to be changed.(You may need to consult other articles and resources for that information.)
There are Many Ways to Edit a. htaccess File
Edit the file on your computer and upload it to the server via FTP
Use an FTP program's Edit Mode
Use SSH and a text editor
Use the File Manager in cPanel
The easiest way to edit a. htaccess file for most people is through the File Manager in cPanel.
Cómo editar archivos. htaccess en el Administrador de Archivos de cPanel
Before you do anything, it is suggested that you backup your website so that you can revert back to a previous version if something goes wrong.
Open the File Manager
Log into cPanel.
In the Files section, click on the File Manager icon.
Check the box for Document Root for and select the domain name you wish to access from the drop-down menu.
Make sure Show Hidden Files (dotfiles) " is checked.
Click Go . The File Manager will open in a new tab or window.
Look for the. htaccess file in the list of files. Puede que tenga que desplazarse para encontrarlo.
To Edit the. htaccess File
Right click on the. htaccess file and click Code Edit from the menu. Alternatively, you can click on the icon for the. htaccess file and then click on the Code Editor icon at the top of the page.
A dialogue box may appear asking you about encoding. Simplemente haga clic en Editar para continuar. El editor se abrirá en una nueva ventana.
Edit the file as needed.
Haga clic en Guardar cambios en la esquina superior derecha cuando haya terminado. The changes will be saved.
Pruebe su sitio web para asegurarse de que los cambios se hayan guardado correctamente. Si no, corrija el error o vuelva a la versión anterior hasta que su sitio vuelva a funcionar.
Once complete, you can click Close to close the File Manager window.
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What are Japanese Candlesticks and why should traders use them? This brand new video workshop will help you understand and master this powerful tool with high impact results. Steve Nison is the premiere expert on Candlesticks in the world and now you can benefit from his expertise in the comfort of your own home. Filmed at a unique one-day seminar he gave for a select group of traders you"ll find discover - The Most Import Candle Patterns - Using the Power of Candles for Online Trading - Combining western technical indicators with CandleStick Charts for increased profits - Reducing risk with Candlestick Charts - Swing & Day Trading with Candlestick Charts and so much more. It"s an incredible opportunity to have the foremost expert guide you to trading success now at a great savings.
Steve Nison-Strategies for Profiting with Japanese Candlestick Charts 4xDVDRip | Español | ASIN: B000WVU5Q6 | AVI | XviD 480x368 | MP3 103 kbps | 10 hrs 22 min | 4.12 GB Genre: eLearning, Trading
What are Japanese Candlesticks - and why should traders use them? Japanese candlestick charts are a versatile tool that can be combined with any other technical tool to help refine a technician"s market analysis. They are commonly used for speculation and hedging, for futures, equities or anywhere technical analysis is applied.
Tom DeMark – Trading Indicators for the 21th Century 6xDVDRip | MP4 / AVC,
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At Last, You Can Discover Secrets Previously Available Only to Big-Money Traders at a Cost of $100,000 or More! Imagine what it would be like if you could scan the markets and instantly see opportunities that can make you big money. During the last 25 years, Tom DeMark has invented dozens of proprietary technical indicators designed to do just that.
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What are Japanese Candlesticks and why should traders use them? This brand new video workshop will help you understand and master this powerful tool with high impact results. Steve Nison is the premiere expert on Candlesticks in the world and now you can benefit from his expertise in the comfort of your own home. Filmed at a unique one-day seminar he gave for a select group of traders youll find discover - The Most Import Candle Patterns - Using the Power of Candles for Online Trading - Combining western technical indicators with CandleStick Charts for increased profits - Reducing risk with Candlestick Charts - Swing & Day Trading with Candlestick Charts and so much more. Its an incredible opportunity to have the foremost expert guide you to trading success now at a great savings.
12 Simple Technical Indicators that Really Work DVDRip | AVI / DivX, 300 kb/s | 512x336 | 01:18:49 | English: MP3, 128 kb/s (2 ch) | 236 MB Genre: Trading
A two-time, best-selling author and writer of a weekly commentary Mark Larson is an expert trader willing to share the secrets of his favorite technical tools.
GRAFster 7.0.1.7 | 2.1 MB Updated GRAFster7 is an easy to use charting and analysis application. Use it to quickly Description equities, indices, futures, mutual funds, currencies or any time series in a compatible data format. No need to be 'on line' all the time. Get your data with GimmeFreeData for free. It offers most of the usual technical analysis indicators without being redundant, a few uncommon ones, and some for which you would have to pay plenty if it were not for GRAFster7. Why pay more? For just the cost of a round trip trade, avoid the hype, clutter and complexity - get charts fast without exposing yourself to feature shock. After all, the fundamental technical analysis tool is the ruler.
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Identifying High Probability Trading Opportunities & Maximize Profits
GRAFster 7.0.1.8 | 2.1 MB
Updated GRAFster7 is an easy to use charting and analysis application. Use it to quickly Description equities, indices, futures, mutual funds, currencies or any time series in a compatible data format. No need to be 'on line' all the time. Get your data with GimmeFreeData for free. It offers most of the usual technical analysis indicators without being redundant, a few uncommon ones, and some for which you would have to pay plenty if it were not for GRAFster7. Why pay more? For just the cost of a round trip trade, avoid the hype, clutter and complexity - get charts fast without exposing yourself to feature shock. After all, the fundamental technical analysis tool is the ruler.
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A Short Course in Technical Trading by Perry J. Kaufman English | 25 Jun. 2003 | ISBN: 0471268488 | 340 Pages | PDF | 28 MB
Learn to trade using technical analysis, market indicators, simple portfolio analysis, generally successful trading techniques, and common sense with this straightforward, accessible book.
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Transportation Indicators and Business Cycles (Contributions to Economic Analysis) by Kajal Lahiri English | 2010 | ISBN: 0857241478 | 210 pages | PDF | 1 MB
Oil Production in the 21st Century and Peak Oil
The Deepwater Horizon incident demonstrated that most of the oil left is deep offshore or in other locations difficult to reach. Moreover, to obtain the oil remaining in currently producing reservoirs requires additional equipment and technology that comes at a higher price in both capital and energy. In this regard, the physical limitations on producing ever-increasing quantities of oil are highlighted, as well as the possibility of the peak of production occurring this decade. The economics of oil supply and demand are also briefly discussed, showing why the available supply is basically fixed in the short to medium term. Also, an alarm bell for economic recessions is raised when energy takes a disproportionate amount of total consumer expenditures. In this context, risk mitigation practices in government and business are called for. As for the former, early education of the citizenry about the risk of economic contraction is a prudent policy to minimize potential future social discord. As for the latter, all business operations should be examined with the aim of building in resilience and preparing for a scenario in which capital and energy are much more expensive than in the business-as-usual one.
1. Introduction An economy needs energy to produce goods and deliver services and the size of an economy is highly correlated with how much energy it uses (Brown et al. 2010a, Warr and Ayers, 2010). Oil has been a key element of the growing economy. Since 1845, oil production has increased from virtually nothing to approximately 86 million barrels per day (Mb/d) today (IEA, 2010), which has permitted living standards to increase around the world. In 2004 oil production growth stopped while energy hungry and growing countries like China and India continued increasing their demand. A global price spike was the result, which was closely followed by a price crash. Since 2004 world oil production has remained within 5% of its peak despite historically high prices (see Figure 1).
Figure 1. Oil production stopped growing in 2004 while demand continued to increase. The result was a global oil price spike that contributed to the subsequent economic contraction. Liquid fuels include crude oil, lease condensate, natural gas plant liquids, other liquids, and refinery processing gains and losses as defined by the EIA. Source: Hirsch (2010)
The combination of increasingly difficult-to-extract conventional oil combined with depleting supergiant and giant oil fields, some of which have been producing for seven decades, has led the International Energy Agency (IEA) to declare in late 2010 that the peak of conventional oil production occurred in 2006 (IEA, 2010). Conventional crude oil makes up the largest share of all liquids commonly counted as “oil” and refers to reservoirs that primarily allow oil to be recovered as a free-flowing dark to light-coloured liquid (Speight, 2007).
The peak of conventional oil production is an important turning point for the world energy system because many difficult questions remain unanswered. For instance: how long will conventional oil production stay on its current production plateau? Can unconventional oil production make up for the decline of conventional oil? What are the consequences to the world economy when overall oil production declines, as it eventually must? What are the steps businesses and governments can take now to prepare?
In this paper we pay particular attention to oil for several reasons. First, most alternative energy sources are not replacements for oil. Many of these alternatives (wind, solar, geothermal, etc.) produce electricity, not liquid fuel. Consequently, the world transportation fleet is at high risk of suffering from oil price shocks and oil shortages as conventional oil production declines. Though substitute liquid fuel production, like coal-to-liquids, will increase over the next two or three decades, it is not clear that it can completely make up for the decline of oil production.
Second, oil contributes the largest share to the total primary energy supply, approximately 34%. Changes to its price and availability will have worldwide impact especially because alternative sources currently contribute so little to the world energy system (IEA, 2010).
Figure 2. Fuel shares of world total primary energy supply. The “other” category includes tidal, solar and wind generation. Source: IEA (2007)
Last, oil is particularly important because of its unique role in the global energy system and the global economy. Oil supplies over 90% of the energy for world transportation (Sorrell et al. 2009). Its energy density and portability have allowed many other systems, from mineral extraction to deep-sea fishing (two sectors particularly dependent on diesel fuel but sectors by no means unique in their dependence on oil), to operate on a global scale. Oil is also the lynchpin of the remainder of the energy system. Without it, mining coal and uranium, drilling for natural gas and even manufacturing and distributing alternative energy systems like solar panels would be significantly more difficult and expensive. Thus, oil could be considered an “enabling” recurso. That is, it enables us to obtain all the other resources required to run our modern civilization.
2. The production perspective It is commonly claimed that peak oil, i. e. the concept that oil production will reach a maximum level and then decline, is only about geology. To some extent this is a result of the polarized debate that has raged between geologists, such as Hubbert (1949; 1956) or Campbell (1997; 2002), and economists, including Adelman (1990) and Lynch (2002; 2003). In fact, peak oil is the result of a complex set of forces that includes geology, reservoir physics, economics, government policies and politics. However, a solid understanding of the peaking and subsequent decline of oil production begins with acknowledging the natural laws that create a framework for everything. The intrinsic limitations of these laws eventually affect all human activities because neither economic incentives nor political will can bend or break these laws of nature.
There are a number of physical depletion mechanisms that affect oil production (Satter et al. 2008). Depletion-driven decline occurs during the primary recovery phase when decreasing reservoir pressure leads to reduced flow rates. Investment in water injection, the secondary recovery phase, can maintain or increase pressure but eventually increasingly more water and less oil is recovered over time (i. e. increasing water cut). Additional equipment and technology can be used to enhance oil recovery in the tertiary recovery phase, but this comes at a higher price in terms of both invested capital and energy to maintain production. The situation is similar to squeezing water out of a soaked sponge. It is easy at first, but increasingly more effort is required for diminishing returns. At some point, it is no longer worth squeezing either the sponge or the oil basin and production is abandoned.
Another way to explain peaking oil production is in terms of predator-prey behavior, as Bardi and Lavacchi (2009) have done. Their idea is that, initially, the extraction of “easy oil” leads to increasing profit and investments in further extraction capacity. Gradually the easiest (and typically the largest) resources are depleted. Extraction costs in both energy and monetary terms rise as production moves to lower quality deposits. Eventually, investments cannot keep pace with these rising costs, declining production from mature fields cannot be overcome and total production begins to fall.
An additional factor plays an important role. In both models, regardless of the abundance of capital or high prices, an oil well is unable to deliver net energy at some point. Hubbert (1982) wrote: “There is a different and more fundamental cost that is independent of the monetary price. That is the energy cost of exploration and production. So long as oil is used as a source of energy, when the energy cost of recovering a barrel of oil becomes greater than the energy content of the oil, production will cease no matter what the monetary price may be.”
These physical trends conspire to make oil production increasingly difficult and expensive in monetary and energy terms. Economic incentives and technological advancement can slow these trends but they cannot be stopped.
2.1 Oil production today Production peaks occur for many energy sources ranging from firewood and whales to fossil fuels (Höök et al. 2010). Currently, around 60 countries have passed “peak oil” (Sorrell et al. 2009) — their point of maximum production. In most cases this is due to physical depletion of the available resources (e. g. USA, the UK, Norway, etc.) while in a few cases socioeconomic factors limit production (e. g. Iraq).
Attempts to disprove peak oil that focus solely on the amount of oil available in all its forms demonstrate a fundamental, and an unfortunately common confusion between how much oil remains versus how quickly it can be produced. Although until recently, oil appeared to be more economically available than ever before (Watkins, 2006), others have shown this to be an artefact of statistical reporting (Bentley et al. 2007). Further, it is far less important how much oil is left if demand. for instance, is 90 Mb/d but only 80 Mb/d can be produced. Still, the most realistic reserve estimates indicate a near-term resource-limited production peak (Meng and Bentley, 2008; Owen et al. 2010).
Total oil production is comprised of conventional oil, which is liquid crude that is easy and relatively cheap to pump, and unconventional oil, which is expensive and often difficult to produce. It is vital to understand that new oil is increasingly coming from unconventional sources like polar, deep water, and tar sands. Almost all the oil left to us is in politically dangerous or remote regions, is trapped in challenging geology or is not even in liquid form.
Today, over 60% of the world production originates from a few hundred giant fields. The number of giant oil field discoveries peaked in the early 60s and has been dwindling since then (Höök et al. 2009). This is similar to picking strawberries in a field. We picked the biggest and best strawberries first (just like big oil fields they are easier to find) and left the small ones for later. Only 25 fields account for one quarter of global production and 100 fields account for half of production. Just 500 fields account for two-thirds of all the production (Sorrell et al. 2009a). As the IEA (2008) points out, it is far from certain that the oil industry will be able to muster the capital to tap enough of the remaining, low-return fields fast enough to make up for the decline in production from current fields.
All oil sources are not equally easy to exploit. It takes far less energy to pump oil from a reservoir still under natural pressure than to recover the bitumen from tar sands and convert it to synthetic crude. The energy obtained from an extraction process divided by the energy expended during the process is the Energy Return on Energy Invested (EROEI). It is a return on investment calculation applied to a physical process. As Hubbert noted, regardless of the price the market is willing to pay for oil, just as we won’t spend a dollar to receive only a dollar in return, when we expend as much oil as we get back from a particular oil deposit, production will stop.
The EROEI of US domestic oil production (chiefly originating from giant oil fields) has declined from 100:1 in 1930 to less than 20:1 for developments in the 2000s, e. g. Gulf of Mexico,(Gately, 2007; Hall et al. 2008; Murphy and Hall, 2010). Since giant and super giant oil fields dominate current production, they are good indicators for the point of peak production (Robelius, 2007; Höök et al. 2009). There is now broad agreement among analysts that the decline in existing production is between 4-8% annually (Höök et al. 2009). In terms of capacity, this means that roughly a new North Sea (
5 Mb/d) has to come on stream every year just to keep the present output constant.
In 2010, the IEA (2010) abruptly announced that the peak of conventional oil production was reached in 2006. The IEA also again lowered their estimate of total world oil production to less than 100 Mb/d by 2035. However, it has been shown that the IEA oil production model is flawed. To reach the production level in their model, they assume oil field depletion rates that are so high that they have never been seen in any oil region before (Aleklett et al. 2010). The remaining oil simply cannot be produced as quickly as would be required to push the production peak as far into the future as they project, thus the peak must occur sooner than the IEA asserts. Miller (2011) found that the IEA had not addressed any of the recent critique and concluded that the IEA outlooks likely remain too optimistic.
Most discussions about oil focus on the size of the resource left. However, in the near term, it is far more important to pay attention to production flows and the constraints operating on them. Peak oil is the point in time where production flows are unable to increase. It is not just underinvestment, political gamesmanship or remote locations that make oil production increasingly difficult. The physical depletion mechanisms (increasing water cut, falling reservoir pressure, etc.) will unavoidably affect production by imposing restrictions and even limitations on the future production of liquid crude oil. No amount of technology or capital can overcome this fact.
3. The economic perspective 3.1 The economics of oil supply One important feature of oil supply is its cyclical boom and bust cycle in prices and production. Maugeri (2010, p. 12-13) describes this phenomenon: “if petroleum becomes scarce and there is no spare capacity. oil price climbs. This rise in prices fosters a new cycle of investment from which new production will flow. It also triggers gains in energy efficiency, consumer frugality and the rise of alternative energy resources. By the time the new production arrives at the market, petroleum demand may have dropped. This vicious circle has been a feature of all oil crises of the past.”
However, oil production recently became less responsive to traditional economic stimuli. The first decade of this century witnessed a dramatic increase in oil exploration and production when the price of oil increased (Sorrell et al. 2009; 2009a). Unfortunately, as noted already, total world oil production seems to have reached a plateau nonetheless. To a large degree this is because the oil that remains tends to be unconventional oil, which is expensive and takes more time to bring to market. Some consequences of having extracted much of the easy oil are the following: a) It takes significantly more time once a field is discovered to start production. Maugeri (2010) estimates it now takes between 8 and 12 years for new projects to produce first oil. Difficult development conditions can delay the start of production considerably. In the case of Kashagan, the world’s largest oil discovery in 30 years, production has been delayed by almost 10 years due to difficult environmental conditions. b) In mature regions, an increased drilling effort usually results in little increase in oil production because the largest fields were found and produced first (Höök and Aleklett, 2008; Höök et al. 2009). c) Because the cost of extracting the remaining oil is much higher than easy-to-extract OPEC or other conventional oil, if the market price remains lower than the marginal cost for long enough, producers will cut production to avoid financial losses. See Figure 3. d) Uncertainty about future economic growth heightens concerns for executing these riskier projects. This delays or often cancels projects (Figure 4). e) Most remaining oil reserves are in the hands of governments. They tend to under-invest compared to private companies (Deutsche Bank, 2009). f) Possible scarcity rents have to be taken into account. Hotelling (1931) showed that in the case of a depletable resource, price should exceed marginal cost even if the oil market were perfectly competitive (the resulting difference is called scarcity rent). If this were not the case, it would be more profitable to leave the oil in the ground, waiting to produce it until the price has risen. Hamilton (2009a, 2009b) noted that while in the 1990s the scarcity rent was negligible relative to costs of extraction, the strong demand growth from developing countries in the last decade together with limits to expanding production “could in principle account for a sudden shift to a regime in which the scarcity rent is positive and quite important.” In this regard, the Reuters news service reported on April 13, 2008 that “Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah said he had ordered some new oil discoveries left untapped to preserve oil wealth in the world’s top exporter for future generations, the official Saudi Press Agency (SPA) reported.” Therefore, a possible intertemporal calculation considering scarcity rents may have already influenced (i. e. limited) current production. Although the sudden fall of prices at the end of 2008 is difficult to reconcile with scarcity rents, the following quick price recovery to the $70-$120 range during the enduring global financial crisis indicates that this aspect cannot be dismissed. This is despite the assertion by Reynolds and Baek (2011) that the Hotelling principle ". is not a powerful determinant of nonrenewable resources prices," and that ". the Hubbert curve and the theory surrounding the Hubbert curve is an important determinant of oil prices." We agree that the Hubbert curve, which defines the depletion curve of a non-renewable resource, may be the prime determinant of oil price but it is not the only one.
Figure 3. Global marginal cost of production 2008. Source: LCM Research based on Booz Allen/IEA data (Morse, 2009). The unlabeled items, from left to right are OPEC Middle East, Former Soviet Union and Enhanced Oil Recovery.
The consequence of these issues is that in the short-medium term the available supply is essentially fixed and thus relatively straightforward to compute. As Figure 4 shows, net production capacity will decline due to the difficulty in finding new reserves at an accessible cost while the existing capacity is steadily depleted. Just as occurred in 2004, by 2011 there is again no new net capacity while the world economy, and thus oil demand, has resumed growth. After 2014, it appears that global oil production will begin its decline (See the second report of the UK Industry Taskforce on Peak Oil and Energy Security (UK ITPOES, 2010), Lloyd’s (2010), Deutsche Bank (2009, 2010), the report by the UK Energy Research Centre (Sorrell et al. 2009a) and the 2010 World Energy Outlook by the IEA (2010).)
Figure 4. Global annual new gross production (blue bars), annual decline (grey bars) and net new oil production capacity (thin green line). Source: UK Industry Task Force on Peak Oil and Energy Security (2010)
3.2 The economics of oil demand Now an important question is what are the consequences of high oil prices on world economic growth? In the economic literature, Hamilton (2009b) and Kilian (2008; 2009) attempt an answer, while in the professional financial literature, the report by Deutsche Bank (2009) is one of the most comprehensive.
Hamilton (2009b) in particular highlighted the importance of the share of energy expenditure as a percentage of total consumer expenditure. When this ratio is too high, an economic recession tends to occur. Similarly Deutsche Bank (2009) showed how each country seems to have a “threshold percentage of national income at which crude pricing meets stern resistance and demand is broken.” Deutsche Bank (2009) asserts that for American consumers this point is when energy represents 7.5% of gross domestic product. This value is close to the one calculated by Hamilton (2009b) but is based on monthly data and uses a different methodology. In a more recent report, Deutsche Bank (2010) lowered this threshold to 6.5 % because ". the last shock set in motion major behavioural and policy changes that will facilitate rapid behavioural changes when the next one comes and underemployment and weak wage growth has increased sensitivity to gasoline prices. Last time it took $4.50/gal gasoline to finally tip demand, this time it might only take $3.75/gal to $4.00/gal to do it." However, they also highlighted that "Americans have become comfortable with paying more for gasoline, and it may take higher prices to force behaviour change".
Kopits (2009) suggested that when crude oil expenditures exceed 4% of GDP, oil prices increase by more than 50% year-on-year, and oil price increases are so great that a potential demand adjustment should have to reach 0.8% of GDP on an annual basis, then a recession in the US is very likely. A similar outcome was found by Hall et al. (2009) who showed a recession in the US is likely when oil amounts to more than 5.5% of GDP. We remark that the difference between the 4% (Kopits, 2009) and 5.5% (Hall et al. 2009) is simply a wholesale versus retail difference, and the result comes out the same.
Finally, Hamilton (2011) highlighted that 11 of the 12 U. S. Recessions since World War II were preceded by an increase in oil prices. Unfortunately, there is no clear alternative source of energy able to fully substitute for oil (see, for example, Maugeri (2010) for a recent non-technical review of the limits of alternative sources of energy with respect to oil). It possesses a combination of energy density, portability and historically very high EROEI that is difficult for alternatives to match.
4. A timely energy system transformation not assured As oil production declines, significant changes to the current oil-dependent economy in the medium term are likely to be needed. However, it isn’t clear that there will the financial means to implement such a change. For example, Deutsche Bank (2009, 2010) suggested that the widespread use of electric cars in the second part of this decade will be the disruptive technology that will finally destroy oil demand. Apart from technology and resource constraints (lithium necessary for electrical batteries is quite abundant in nature but production is currently very limited), the availability of sufficient financial resources to transition the entire vehicle fleet seems dubious. As Hamilton (2009b) demonstrates, tightened credit follows high oil prices and most vehicles are purchased on credit. Others suggest that natural gas is the next energy paradigm. Again, will be there sufficient financial resources to switch to it as oil production declines?
Reinhart and Rogoff (2009, 2010) found that historically, after a banking crisis, the government debt on average almost doubles (86% increase) to bail out the banks and to stimulate the economy. They also showed that a sovereign debt crisis usually follows: not surprisingly we saw Iceland, Greece, Ireland, Hungary and Portugal turning to the EU/ECB and/or the IMF for financial help to refinance their public debts to avoid default. The need to switch to alternative energy sources with the enormous financial investments that such a task would require — and the simultaneous presence of large public and private debts — may well form a perfect storm.
Additional forces will play a role. New regulations to be introduced by Basel III are likely to impact investment expectations, budgeting and planning. Basel III is a new global regulatory standard on bank capital adequacy and liquidity proposed by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision following the recent global financial crisis and whose aim is to ". to improve the banking sector's ability to absorb shocks arising from financial and economic stress, whatever the source, thus reducing the risk of spill over from the financial sector to the real economy", BCBS (2009). Demography will also be extremely important in the next decade as well. Europe and the United States have aging populations and their baby boomers are entering pension age. China faces a similar demographic problem due to their one child policy, too.
The combination of declining oil production (and thus oil priced high enough to cause recessions), high taxes, austerity measures, more restrictive credit conditions and demographic shifts have the potential to severely constrain the financial resources needed to move the economy away from oil and to alternative energy sources. Another consequence of this combination of forces is the likely contraction of the world economy (Hamilton, 2009b; Dargay and Gately, 2010).
4.1 Energy transition risks With higher priced oil, technology substitution (such as electric cars gradually replacing internal combustion engine cars) and fuel substitution (such as natural gas replacing oil) will occur. History is filled with many such examples and they are frequently highlighted in the debate. However, one must read carefully and not overstate the simplicity of an energy transition.
For example, whale oil was – technically – an energy source in the 19th century, but the economy was based on coal at the time. Whale oil was used only for very specific purposes (primarily illumination), and the transition to kerosene was easy and occurred very rapidly. Bardi (2007) explored this in more detail and made several important remarks that pinpoint how difficult it can be to substitute energy sources. In particular, he showed that resource scarcity often dramatically increases the amplitude of price oscillations, which often slow an energy source transition. Businesses and governments struggle with alternating circumstances of insufficient cash flow to handle price spikes and plummeting prices that don't cover their cost structure. Long term planning in this ever-changing environment becomes extremely difficult and investment — even highly needed investment — can drop precipitously.
Friedrichs (2010) also cautions that after peak oil countries have several sociological trajectories available to them, they can follow predatory militarism like Japan before WWII, totalitarian retrenchment like North Korea, or, ideally, socioeconomic adaptation like Cuba after the fall of the Soviet Union. Given the recent century of conflict and the extensive weapon stocks and militaries held by modern nations (especially the United States, which spends on its military almost as much as the remaining countries of the world combined (SIPRI, 2011), there is simply no guarantee that the relatively peaceful period currently experienced by developed nations that is conducive to rapid energy source transitions will continue much longer.
Koetse et al. (2008) showed that for both North America and Europe the capital-energy substitutability over the long term is large. In other words, if there is abundant capital, the economy can respond to higher oil prices with substitution. However, if declining oil causes a credit contraction similar to the crash of 2008, there may not be sufficient capital to replace existing equipment quickly.
Even if there is sufficient capital, substitution has thus far operated with high and even increasing EROEI fuel sources. Since the transition from whale oil, each subsequent transition has been to an energy source with greater net energy profit. The energy dense fuels we are using now have allowed us to build our civilization. The difficulty this time is that we must move from highly profitable, in terms of energy, sources to lower profit alternatives like solar and wind. Researchers are beginning to ask the following important question: what is the minimum energy profit that must be sustained to allow us to operate our civilization? And, assuming alternatives are up to the job (this is not yet proven), can we complete the move away from oil before the overall EROEI gets too low? (Murphy and Hall, 2010)
A further challenge is that, strictly speaking, for the last 150 years we have not transitioned from previous fuel sources to new ones — we have been adding them to the total supply. We are currently using all significant sources (coal, oil, gas and uranium) at high rates. Thus, it’s common but incorrect to say that we moved from coal to oil. In fact, we are using more coal now than we ever have (IEA, 2010). We never left the coal age. The challenge of moving to alternative energy sources while a particularly important source is declining, in this case oil, should not be underestimated.
4.2 Net oil exports decline faster than overall production The challenge may be greater still because net oil exports are set to fall more rapidly than overall oil production. Rubin (2007) points out that before the financial crisis many producer countries were experiencing economic booms. These countries export only the oil they don’t use themselves. The Middle East saw annual consumption increases of 5%. Russia was increasing at a 4% annual rate. It was only Russia’s increased production during the same period (accounting for 70% of the increase that came from OPEC, Russian and Mexican production during the early part of the last decade) that oil prices did not break records sooner than they did. Although the IEA has projected that oil use in OECD countries may already be declining (IEA 2010), they think that the oil appetite of non-OECD countries, which includes the producer countries, is not even close to being satisfied.
Brown et al. (2010b) show how significant the squeeze of declining gross production and increasing producer country consumption can be, which they have named the Export Land Model. Increasing producer country consumption due to population growth acts as a strong “magnification factor” that removes oil very quickly from the export market. Using the top five exporting countries from 2005 (Saudi Arabia, Russia, Norway, Iran, and United Arab Emirates), they construct a scenario in which combined production declines at a very slight 0.5% per year over a ten year period for a total of 5%. Internal oil consumption for these exporters continues to grow at its current rate (2010). In this scenario net oil exports decline by 9.6%, almost double the rate oil production declines.
Steadily increasing internal consumption coupled with a 1/3 drop in domestic production turned Indonesia into a net oil importer just 12 years after its peak of production. Egypt has lost all it oil export revenue and will soon follow Indonesia to become a net oil importer. Source: BP Statistical Review (2010).
This accelerated loss of exportable oil can be seen in many producer countries that have passed their peak. Figure 6 shows the typical cases of Indonesia and Egypt. Indonesia has withdrawn from OPEC because they have no more exportable oil to offer the world market. Egypt is already incurring a public debt and is on the cusp of becoming a net oil importer, which will exacerbate already stretched public finances. As producer countries continue to grow their oil use even modestly and production declines (again, even modestly), there is an extremely high risk that net exportable oil will decline much faster than most observers are currently expecting.
4.3 Crash program may eventually replace declining oil Hirsch (2010) points out that a crash program to create liquid fuel savings and additional liquid fuels may be able. at some point, to make up for declining oil production (Figure 7). While the alternatives are ramping up and as oil production is declining, Hirsch (2008) estimates that the world economy will contract at approximately a one-to-one ratio. In his best-case scenario, using a 4% per year decline rate, an idealized crash program to produce liquid fuels does not pause contraction sooner than ten years after the onset of decline.
Figure 7. Liquid fuel mitigation programs take at least ten years before they are able to make up for declining oil production. Source: Hirsch (2010)
Other mitigation efforts like increased solar, wind and geothermal production may not be prioritized since they do not help the situation — they produce electricity and the world’s 800 million transportation, food production (i. e. tractors and harvesters) and distribution vehicles require liquid fuel.
If the peak of oil production occurs this decade, there is insufficient time to avoid contraction because of how long it takes to transition the vehicle fleet. Even in their moderately aggressive scenario, Belzowski and McManus (2010) estimate that in a healthy, growing economy by 2050 still only 80% of the vehicle fleet in Europe and the U. S. would operate on alternative power trains.
5. Government risks A contracting economy presents governments with a host of problems that are not easy to resolve. Promises made to the citizenry, some in the form of social welfare programs, pensions and public union contracts, will be impossible to keep as the energy base of the economy declines. Downward wage pressure and reduced business activity will lower tax revenue. With lower revenues and greater demands in the form of social welfare support by an increasingly poorer citizenry, it is difficult to see how the accumulated (and growing) government debt can be paid back without rampant inflation. Though it is still unclear whether the government response will be hyperinflation (to minimize the debts) or extensive and massive debt defaults — or both — it is not likely that business as usual will continue as oil production declines.
In business sectors that are highly dependent on oil, such as the automotive sector (Cameron and Schnusenberg, 2009), ill prepared companies that lack understanding of how price volatility may impact their firm will likely fail. In the case of the car companies some may fail a second time because their products are still not yet ready for a high-priced oil environment (Wei et al. 2010). Governments may not be willing to spend the money to rescue these businesses (such as the car company bailouts in the U. S.) and should be prepared for increasing unemployment as vulnerable sectors contract. To minimize potential future social discord, governments should immediately begin planning for contraction and educating their citizenry of the risk of contraction.
Because poverty reduction is highly correlated with capital availability (World Bank 2001), as contraction occurs due to oil production decline, some countries may see the reversal of poverty reduction gains made in recent decades. Some governments may also have to contend with food and fuel riots as they did in 2007 and 2008. Other forms of crowd behaviour, namely hoarding of fuel and food, may exacerbate the situation and governments should prepare accordingly.
6. Business risks In a joint report, Lloyd’s of London and Chatham House have advised all businesses to begin scenario-planning exercises for the oil price spike they assert is coming in the medium term (Lloyd’s, 2010). These planning exercises should scrutinize a company’s operations and balance sheet in fundamental ways.
Like governments, businesses of all sorts may experience similar difficulty paying their debts as sales decline. Banks may see asset values fall further. Manufacturers in particular will have to contend with increased difficulties making and delivering products as oil production declines (Hirsch et al. 2005). It will prove imperative that business addresses this Schumpetarian shock (a structural change to industry that can alter what is strategically relevant) in a timely fashion (Barney, 1991).
A significant benefit of cheap oil was that distance was relatively inexpensive. It is possible now to manufacture goods using far-flung operations. However, as oil declines, distance will, once again, become increasingly expensive, and oil price may begin to act as a trade barrier for many products. Another risk as oil production declines is the possibility of oil supply disruptions. If this should occur, much modern manufacturing may be impacted. Just-in-time manufacturing systems in which warehoused parts are minimized through the frequent replenishment of parts by parts suppliers — sometimes with multiple deliveries a day — have little tolerance for delivery delays.
To prepare for this risk requires more than the drive for manufacturing efficiency that has generally characterized business. Supply chains should be examined with the aim of building in resilience and greater agility (Bunce and Gould, 1996; Krishnamurthy and Yauch, 2007), implying the loosening of tight and often brittle couplings between suppliers and manufacturers (Christopher and Towill, 2000; Towill and Christopher, 2001). With little or no slack in the system (fewer warehoused parts, etc.), just one supplier failing to deliver a part or supplier hoarding can shut down a production process.
7. Conclusion The Deepwater Horizon incident demonstrated that most of the oil left is deep offshore or in other difficult-to-reach locations. Moreover, obtaining the oil remaining in currently producing reservoirs requires additional equipment and technology that comes at a higher price in both capital and energy. In this regard, we reviewed the physical perspective of peak oil and some of the limitations on producing ever-increasing quantities of oil were highlighted as well as the possibility of the peak of production occurring this decade.
We then briefly discussed the economics of oil supply and demand, showing why the available supply is basically fixed in the short-medium term, and highlighting the importance of a high energy expenditure share as a percentage of total consumer expenditures sounding an alarm bell for economic recessions. Moreover, we remarked that the potential financial resources available in the future to switch to alternative sources of energy will be limited due to several factors ranging from the high levels of debt (both private and public) to the aging of the populations in Western countries and China. We also noted that, even with very slight production decline rates, net oil exports decline significantly faster than total oil production as the economies of producer countries grow.
In such a context, risk mitigation practices are called for, both at the government level and at the business level to prepare for high and likely volatile oil prices. Governments should begin educating their citizenry of the risk of contraction to minimize potential future social discord. Businesses should examine their operations and balance sheets with the aim of building in resilience. It also implies preparing for a scenario in which capital and energy are much more expensive than in the business-as-usual one.
Por. Dean Fantazzini
This is a guest post by Dean Fantazzini, Moscow School of Economics, Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia; Mikael Höök, Uppsala University, Global Energy Systems, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Uppsala, Sweden; and André Angelantoni, Post-Peak Living, San Francisco, CA. This paper has been previously published in Energy Policy, Volume 39, Issue 12, December 2011, Pages 7865-7873.
Source: The Oil Drum
Very well written and researched.
This article is the strategic primer everyone needs to read. I have summed up some tactical ideas that would help if a shock, of varying magnitudes of scale were to occur in the near future.
1 - Copper and silver disinfect water - be near groundwater or a stream and you will have steady water.
2 - hemp seeds are still cheap, nutritious and can be grown in an apocalyptic scenario. Hemp has a thousand uses, the least of which are food, fuel, oil, clothing and mushroom substrate.
3 - Oyster mushrooms - grow on any dead organic matter. Keep them covered to maintain moisture and watch them grow. Investigation reports around 50% yield per substrate block. I have 300kg of oyster mushroom spawn developing, once fully colonised, i will have a constant source of stored and fresh food. This is being done in a concrete garden in a heavily urbanised environment, it takes minimal space.
4 - Crystals - Crystal healing does work, albeit subtly. They can resolve minor ailments and build the immune system - with no fossil fuel input. You could write a book on them, but quartz crystals are a good starter and will help you maintain good health.
Good luck, there is nothing to worry about if you are prepared.
The Stone Age did not come to an end because the stone ran out.
The only winner will be the environment. Peak Oil will give all those climate deniers a chance to do the right thing without having to admit they were wrong. I just hope they take the opportunity before its too late. If not, then the scenario envisioned in this article will be as nothing compared to what it will be like when the planet overheats as much as it has the potential to. Old Mother Nature doesn't need us humans, but boy, do we need her.
Extremely well-written and accurate, a good overall summary cutting through a lot of the minute details. It is 2013 and we have reached Peak Oil people. WAKE UP. Our pathetic (American) politicians will not solve or even be able to reduce the catastrophic consequences of declning oil. The world is about to change big time! And I am not one of those doomsday preppers, either, but, my god, it's looking bad! Maybe the environment will win, if we dont totally destroy, drill, mine and frack it to death first. I am reading "The Party's Over. " about peak oil, which led me to this website. I recommend this exhaustive, if perhaps overly detailed, book for more info. It, too, concludes peak oil is here in roughly 2010. God help us.
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This content was written by a student and assessed as part of a university degree. E-IR publishes student essays & dissertations to allow our readers to broaden their understanding of what is possible when answering similar questions in their own studies.
Does population growth affect food production? Does this effect vary across regions? Scholars have proposed food insecurity as one of the threats that society will endure during this century. Global population has grown exponentially. Current numbers are estimated around 6,692,030,277(World Bank, 2009) and are expected to rise 9.3 billion in 2050. The world’s population will double in the next 50 years, if the current growth rate of 1.3 percent continues (Kendall and Pimentel 1994:198). However, world cereal yields and agriculture production have declined since 1961 (Harris and Kennedy, 1999). According to FAO, per capita food production declined in 51 developing countries, while rising in only 43 between 1979 and 1987 (Sadik, 1991).
This study examines the relationship between agriculture growth and population growth rates in countries around the world. In particular, this paper seeks to identify the difference in the relationship between population growth and agricultural growth among the following regions: Africa, Asia, Europe, North America, Latin America and Oceania. The paper begins by reviewing the current literature relevant to the Malthusian theory of scarcity and agriculture production. It continues by developing a theoretical framework in which I suggest that population growth is increasing at a higher rate than agriculture production. I test this hypothesis by analyzing agriculture production, population growth and economic development data from all countries from 1981 to 2008. The paper concludes with a discussion of the results of the regression on agriculture production and a summary of future research needs.
Magadoff and Tokar (2009) concluded that 12% of the global population – approximately 36 million people - suffer from hunger and live without secure access of food. Decreased food production in less developed countries, increases in the price of food, and growing production of bio-fuels are responsible for current rates of food scarcity. Global warming, crop diversity loss and urban sprawl also affect agriculture production. Kendall and Pimentel(1994) note that current per capita grain production seems to be decreasing worldwide. The situation is particularly distressing in Africa, where grain production is down 12% since 1980. Africa only produces 80% of what it consumes (Kendall and Pimentel, 1994:199)
For most countries, population growth rate is approximately 2-3% a year, which should translate to an annual increase of 3-5% in agriculture production levels. (Kendall and Pimentel, 1994: 202) Kendall and Pimentel designed three models to predict crop levels by 2050. They concluded that if production continues at its current rate, per capita crop production will decline by 2050. The possibility of tripling today’s current crop production is unrealistic (Kendall and Pimentel, 1994).
Food insecurity has the potential for worsening far beyond anyone’s expectations. Have we finally reached Earth’s carrying capacity? Scholars’ opinions vary depending on their perspective. While Neo-Malthusian scholars such as Paul Elhrich(2009) believe that the only way to avoid this catastrophe is by restraining population growth, others such as Rusell Hopfenberg(2003) assert that we must curb food production to limit population growth.
Thomas Malthus(1806) was the first to address food scarcity as an issue and defended the hypothesis that growing global population will eventually eclipse the Earth’s capacity to feed it. “The power of population is indefinitely greater than the power in the earth to produce subsistence for man.”(Malthus, 1806:13) Erhlich extended Malthus’ theory on population growth by asserting that humans were going to fail in the battle against hunger. Despite his predictions, Erhlich recognized that the some societal shifts have occurred that indicated that at least some populations were slowing their growth. For instance, fertility rates in most developed nations have dropped to less than replacement levels and the Green Revolution had a larger impact than expected (Ehrlich, 2009). However, the absolute number of people without enough to eat in 2005 – approximately 850 million – was similar to the number reported in 1968 (Elhrich, 2009)
Quinn (1997) questioned Malthus’ Scarcity theory by proposing that increases in food supply are responsible for population growth. Scholars as Rusell Hopfenberg(2003) have supported this hypothesis. Hopfenberg (2003) determined Earth’s carrying capacity by studying the dynamics between food production and agriculture. He estimated future population numbers by using past food productions numbers, which were similar to those estimated by FAO. According to Hopfenberg, Malthus and Darwin understood that in the absence of limitations of resources – such space and food – populations will grow exponentially. If resources are limited, the growth rate will begin to decline as the population reaches the maximum that the environment can support. Population will continue to decline until equilibrium is reached.
Although Hopfenberg and Quinn’s hypotheses have strong biological foundations, they do not seem to maintain when confronted with cases such as Africa, where population sizes have continued to increase despite declining food production on the continent as expected by the Malthusian model. Currently, African nations such as Liberia (4.1 percent), Nigeria (3.49 percent) and Uganda (3.24 percent) have among the highest population growth rates in the world (World Bank, 2009). Nevertheless, grain production has declined 12 percent in the last two decades (Dyson, 1999).
Agriculture Production Indicators
Increases in land dedicated to agricultural purpose also affect a country’s agriculture production, particularly in Latin America. The total amount of land used to grow crops in Latin America has increased by 11 percent since 1970, which represents the largest increase of croplands in the world (Gonzalez1985).
Land availability is a determinant factor for agriculture production. According to David Pimentel and Henry Kendall (1994), only a third of the Earth’s soil is suitable for agriculture. A 30% of this arable soil is expected to experience erosion by 2050 due to unsustainable agricultural practices. Although the area of arable land is expected to increase by 500 million hectares by 2050, the agricultural productivity of this land will be below current levels (Kendall and Pimentel, 1994). Gilland (2002) argues that to feed today’s population with a basic 2900 kcal diet, the average annual rate of cereal production per capita needs to be around 420 kg per year. However, the expected cereal production for 2050 is 360 kg; a 60 kg deficit under a “business as usual” scenario (Gilland, 2002).
Boongarts (1996) proposes that less developed nations could meet 2050 demand if new economic and technological policies enacted to support sustainable agriculture, but not under the current agriculture production model. Agriculture has three main variables that need to be studied: production, population and distribution (Baker, 1977). Since population and production are long term problems, distribution problems should be addressed immediately.
Trade has become a controversial response to solve distribution problems. Scholars argue that trade allows regions with agricultural surpluses to transfer their excess food to regions with agriculture deficits, thus bringing an equilibrium to global production. Currently, six countries – United States, Argentina and France - supply 90 % of global grain exports to numerous countries including Algeria and Nigeria that endure agriculture shortages and declining domestic supply. (Springer and Pingali,2003). Kellogs et al. (1996) argues that agriculture exports decrease a country’s ability to be self-sufficient in meeting their food needs. Developed countries have high levels of food exports, while less developed countries import most of their food supply.
Scholars also argue that democratization and political regimes play an important role in a country’s agricultural output. Lio and Liu (2008) found that political outcomes which influence agrarian production are result of bargaining between a state’s different interest groups. Their results showed that greater democracy is associated with lower agricultural efficiency, which implies that an interest group is taking control over agricultural process (Lio and Liu, 2008).
The consensus among scholars suggests that economic growth directly affects agriculture production. Jenkins and Scalan (2001) argue that an increase in economic growth—measured as increases in GDP—has a positive relationship with the daily intake of calories of children in developing countries. This suggests that development structures and economic policies affect food supply more than increases in agricultural production.
Theory and Hypothesis
Neo - Malthusians have negative expectations concerning agriculture production, since they consider agriculture a land-restricted and economic-oriented process. Population has the potential to outstrip agricultural production. McDonald (1989) argues that regions with higher population will present a negative relationship with agriculture production. Developing regions will present higher population growth rates and lower agriculture production growth rates and developed nations will present an inverse relationship (Pimentel, 1994).
H1: An increase in population growth will decrease agriculture production.
Neo-Malthusians predict a difference between developing regions: Africa, Asia and Latin America; and developed regions: Europe, North America and Oceania. Recent trends show that since 1990, agricultural output has declined in Oceania, Europe and North America (Magdoff and Tokar, 2009). On the other hand, Asian regions experienced an increase in their agriculture production, particularly because of increases in use of fertilizers and genetically modified crops. Additionally, Latin America’s agriculture production has recovered since 1990 due recent agricultural shifts in Argentina and Brazil (Dyson, 1994: 383)
H2: The effect of population growth on agriculture production varies across regions.
Based upon this background, population growth will be a significant determinant of agricultural production. To explain this relationship I use a cross-sectional time-series data from 1981 to 2008. Consistent with literature I incorporate the control variables of GDP per capita as a measure of economic growth (Jenkins and Scalan, 2001), agricultural land (Kendall and Pimentel, 1994), agricultural imports (Kellogs et al. 1996), political stability (Lio and Liu, 2008) and regional distinctions (Dyson, 1999; Harris and Kennedy, 1999). The population of interest is countries-years, classified by the following UN continental regions: Africa, Asia, Europe, Latin America, North America and Oceania. The study looks at 195 countries during the past twenty-six years using an ordinary least square regression (OLS), meeting the required assumptions. First, the independent variables and control variables are non-random selected. Secondly, I assume that the independent variables and control variables are linearly independent. To avoid multi-collinearity among of control variables, the continental region of Oceania was dropped. Third, I assume normality and no correlation for all variables.
The baseline model examines the relationship between agriculture production growth and population growth, taking in consideration GDP per capita, agriculture material imports, agricultural land and the political stability as control variables. It also incorporates dummy variables for regional classification. The second model uses all the variables, excluding regional classifications. The third model drops the Polity score variable from the regression. Finally, the fourth model analyzes population growth and regional classification.
The primary regression model used for this study is:
Agi. Growth = a + ß 1 Pop. growth+ ß 2 GDPPC+ ß 3 Raw exp. Growth +ß 4 Agri. Land+ ß 5 Polity+ ß 6 Asia + ß 7 Africa+ ß 8 Europe+ ß 9 Latin America + ß 10 North America + e
The secondary regression model is:
Agi. Growth = a + ß 1 Pop. growth+ ß 2 GDPPC+ ß 3 Raw exp. Growth +ß 4 Agri. Land+ ß 5 Polity+ e
The tertiary regression model is:
Agi. Growth = a + ß 1 Pop. growth+ ß 2 GDPPC+ ß 3 Raw exp. Growth +ß 4 Agri. Land+ ß 5 Asia + ß 6 Africa+ ß 7 Europe+ ß 8 Latin America + ß 9 North America + e
The final regression model is:
Agi. Growth = a + ß 1 Pop. growth+ ß 2 Asia + ß 3 Africa+ ß 4 Europe+ ß 5 Latin America + ß 6 North America+ e
The dependent variable is agriculture production growth measured as the Agriculture, value added (annual% growth). It refers to the net output by means of cultivation of crops and livestock production. This number was obtained from the World Development Indicators and measures the annual change of agriculture production vs. the production from previous years.
The primary independent variable is population growth (annual %). It is based on the de facto definition of population, which includes all the residents regardless of legal status or citizenship. The World Bank estimates from various sources including census report and data from the UN Population Division (UN DATA, 2009).
I use GDP per capita, raw agriculture materials imports (%annual change), agricultural land and POLITY score as my control variables. GDP per capita changes measures the economic development – an approximation of the value of goods produced per person-in all the countries included in the model. Agricultural land – measured in sq. miles - refers to the share of land area that is arable, under permanent crops, and under permanent pastures (UN DATA, 2009). Since countries might be importing primary vegetation instead of harvesting it, raw materials imports – Agricultural raw materials imports (% if merchandise) – will reflect the effect of trade on agriculture production. This number was computed using the World Development Indicators dataset. Finally, the POLITY score captures the degree of democracy in a country. I also introduced dummy variables to determine the regional classification - Africa, Asia, Europe, Latin America, North America and Oceania - for each country. For this study, I used the United Nations Statistical Department’s Macro Continental Regional classification. During the regression analysis, one of the variables was dropped, which leaves five regions: Africa, Asia, Europe, Latin America and North America (UN Stats, 2010).
Results and Analysis
Table 1 includes the summary of the regression for the all models. Model 1 shows the coefficient estimates on agriculture production growth in all regions, including all the control variables: GDP per capita, Agriculture Raw Materials, Agricultural Land and Polity. The adjusted R 2 for most models is 0.02, which indicates that the study does not account for most of the variation of Agriculture Production Growth, but that population growth explains 0.1 of the variation. In most of the models, the relation between agriculture production and population growth is positive and statistically significant ( p <0.001). As well, all of the models show significant coefficients for Agricultural Land ( AgriLand ).
The results of Model 1 do not support the hypothesis that population growth negatively affects agriculture production growth or that regional classification plays a role. The coefficient for population growth is positive, which indicates that an increase of one unit in population growth will increase agriculture production growth by 0.60 units. Model 1 also shows that agriculture land has a significant impact on agriculture production. The results indicate that holding all control variables constant, agricultural land will increase agricultural production by 19.2%.
Model 2 does not include coefficient estimates for any of the continental regions. The model does not support the hypothesis that population growth will have a negative effect on agriculture production growth. The coefficient for population growth is positive and significant at the p <0.001 level. The results indicate that population growth will increase agriculture production growth by 61.1%. Model 2 also shows that an increase in agricultural land will increase agriculture production growth by 20.9% ( p <0.01). Furthermore, the results indicate that an increase in democratization will decrease agriculture production growth by 5.8% ( p <0.05), which could be a result of not including regional classification. Interestingly, Lio and Liu (2008) found the same result in their coefficient estimates for agriculture production and democratization.
Table 1: OLS regression on Agriculture Production and Population Growth
Notes: OLS completed in STATA 11 Standard errors in parentheses. Significance: * p <0.05; ** p <0.01; *** p <0.001.
Model 3 does not include coefficient estimates for Polity. Results were similar to those obtained in Model 1. Significant coefficients were attained for Population Growth and Agricultural Land. The results do not support the hypothesis that population growth decreases agricultural production or that the effect differs among regions. The model indicates that population growth will increase agriculture production growth by 68.9% ( p < 0.001). The results also indicate that agricultural land will increase agricultural production growth by 22% (p<0.001). Finally, Model 4 includes coefficient estimates for population growth and regional classification. Surprisingly, the results indicate no significant coefficient for population growth, which does not support the main hypothesis. It is not possible to determine whether the model supports the hypothesis that agriculture production varies among regions. Asia and Africa presented significant coefficients of 18 (p<0.001). This means that agriculture production growth will increase 18% more in Africa or Asia, whereas in Europe and Latin America, agriculture production will increase 17%. However, the difference between the coefficients is not as significant as expected. The coefficient for North America was not significant, as result of the limited numbers of cases for this region (N=47).
Scholars have long questioned what factors are important in determining a country’s agricultural production capacity. Neo-Malthusian scholars argue that population growth is a primary determinant (Malthus, 1809), while more recent scholars argue that political and economic policies play a more important role in determining production (Jenkins and Scalan, 2001; Lio and Liu, 2008). This paper sought to determine whether population growth affects agriculture production growth. Neo-Malthusians believe that an increase in population will result in decreasing agriculture production, consequently limiting a country’s ability to provide food for its citizens. I used OLS regression to evaluate this hypothesis. The results of the models did not support the hypothesis. Indeed, the results indicated a positive relationship between agriculture production and population growth, contrary to the expected by the neo-Malthusian model.
The comparison of population growth and agricultural production changes across regions also did not yield the expected results. Further research needs to be done to determine whether regional location plays a significant role in a country’s agriculture production.
The area of land dedicated to agriculture plays a central role in determining a country’s agriculture production. However, if population growth rates continue, increasing urbanization will potentially threaten for agricultural production. Further research needs to focus on studying the relationship between population density, land conversion rates and agriculture production.
Undoubtedly, technology will be an important factor in determining agriculture production. Future research needs to study whether nations with lower agriculture production rates should invest in better technology to increase their ability to produce food (Boongarts, 1996). Doubling current crop production to avoid the Malthusian catastrophe—necessary to feed the projected 9 billion global population in 2050—will only be possible if global cooperation is increased to promote more sustainable agricultural practices.
Baker, C. (1977). “US Perspectives on World Food Problems”. Illinois Agricultural Economics . 17(2), 1-6.
Boongarts J. (1996). “Population pressure and the food supply system in the developing world”. Population and Development Review, 22(3), 483-503.
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Written by: Olimar Maisonet-Guzman Written at: American University Written for: Leanne Powner Date written: May 2010
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Professional Unions And The Labor Struggles Of The 21st Century
from the unionism-resurgent dept
When one thinks of unions, a number of common conceptions will come to mind. Union members are typically thought of as blue collar industrial workers constantly engaged in some sort of zero-sum tug-of-war against management or shareholders. To further the interests of its members, unions have a number of tools at their disposal like strikes (or the threat of strikes), or pro-union laws that make it hard for a company to hire outside of the union. There's also a sense among many that the era of the union is over, which is closely related to the idea that the US is no longer an industrial nation. As more and more factory jobs get shipped overseas, the thinking goes, the traditional industrial unions have lost their clout. This is compounded by the fact industrial jobs aren't as sought after (particularly by young people) as once they were, no matter how much people try to romanticize them. The official story is that we've traded in the industrial economy for a service economy, much to the regret of many. Today, instead of building things, Americans help consult on and design projects, while the CAD drawings get sent overseas for manufacturing. This is, of course, a cartoonish, network nightly news description of the US economy, but it is handy. The US economy is increasingly made up of free agents and professionals that have never spent a day on the factory floor, where the tools they use and build are made. As such, the union is thought to be a relic of our economic past. Sure, every once in awhile you hear about some strike here or there (grocery baggers in California, UPS deliverymen, pilots, etc.), but these come off as isolated incidents. The union that's in the news most often is the United Auto Workers, which is constantly battling against the the Detroit car makers over things like healthcare and job cuts, but again, that whole industry, in its current model, comes off as a blast from the past.
But while membership rolls for the traditional unions might be on the decline, it's a mistake to assume that they're going away, or that labor struggles are a thing of the past. What's actually happening is that they're evolving to fit the times. Let's just take a recent example. The popular website Zillow was recently dinged in Arizona for not having a real estate appraiser's license. and a state board ruled that it was not allowed to give out home value estimates in the state. It seems absurd that a website would need a special license to give out data, but the board was made up of professional real estate appraisers that were worried about Zillow hurting their business. Essentially, when it comes to real estate appraisers, Arizona is a closed shop state. Either you have to be licensed, or you can't operate. You can probably see where this is heading, that there really isn't any meaningful difference between what a traditional union might do, in terms of looking out for the welfare of its members, and what the group of professional appraisers have done.
Now most people would see the above example as fairly cut and dry. The professional appraisers are engaging in monopoly rent seeking to keep a website that competes with them from operating. But that group is just one example of a modern union. Many other professions have similar setups whereby a professional organization-cum-regulatory body is in the position to decide who can or cannot engage in a particular line of work, and on what terms they're allowed to do their job. Other examples of these groups include the Bar Association, the AMA and the National Association of Realtors. To give a quick legal-related example, an insurance agent was recently found guilty of the "unauthorized practice of law" because she helped a client draw up a will using Quicken software. This case was decided on existing laws, but they were laws nonetheless crafted to help lawyers preserve their monopoly on will making.
Over a series of posts, I will argue that these groups are best thought of as unions, just like the UAW, and that significant and difficult labor battles loom on the horizon. As the share of our GDP that goes to things like healthcare and legal services continues to climb, the market will inevitably produce new technologies designed to automate the tasks of highly paid practitioners. As such, groups like the AMA and the Bar will increasingly find themselves standing athwart these technologies, and other low-cost solutions in the interest of their membership, just as a union would in the face of similar conditions. Let me state at the outset that this basic idea isn't a new one. The famous economist Milton Friedman was hated by the AMA for arguing that the control it exerted over the medical industry was preventing patients from getting low-cost care. So, much of this series will draw on the ideas of others. But it will hopefully convey a sense of urgency, by explaining that this isn't merely an academic issue, but something that needs to be examined and dealt with now.
If you liked this post, you may also be interested in.
Reader Comments (rss )
Frank . May 9th, 2007 @ 2:17pm
Before you get started
Can you put the posts from your last series together in a PDF for download and print consumption?
Simon F. . May 9th, 2007 @ 2:54pm
Viendo hacia adelante
I'm looking forward to this series of posting because I don't agree with the main idea (which is good, because if I agreed with it, why read it?).
Professional organization are more like trademarks in that their main goal is to protect the public, while unions are more like patents in that their goal is to protect themselves.
Reed . May 9th, 2007 @ 3:19pm
Proffessional Associations are Unions
Of course professional associations are unions. They operate on the same principles (protecting professional rights) they are just called a different name. You pay dues to be part of them, they help to demand better working condition, and they have a code of conduct.
It is kind of like calling sweet potato pie (Blue Collar) pumpkin pie (white collar) just to separate the two. They both look similar, smell similar, and taste similar. Trying to say one is a union and the other isn't is just silly in my mind.
sam . May 9th, 2007 @ 3:26pm
just out of curiousity. how many people here actually have either 1) ever belonged to a union, or 2) had a close relative/friend who's belonged to one.
the fact that a group of realtors seeks to keep zillow out ot az. doesn't make the realtors in az anywhere close to being a union in the traditional sense. unions manged to grow, and were in fact a good thing, as they were a force to require management functions to deal with worker in a fair/reasonable manner. the fact that there were union managers who then abused their power over unions wasn't a fault of the concept of the unions..
i'm not talking about basing your understanding of the history of unions from some movie. i'm talking about having close knowledge/understanding of the overall situation that has led to unions being responsible for the rise of the middle class in certain portions of the US.
Re:
i'm not talking about basing your understanding of the history of unions from some movie. i'm talking about having close knowledge/understanding of the overall situation that has led to unions being responsible for the rise of the middle class in certain portions of the US.
You probably shouldn't make assumptions. I have a degree in labor relations, which included quite a bit of labor history (both US and foreign), as well as multiple levels of labor economics, collective bargaining, etc. classes. So, yeah, I'm fairly familiar with unions.
Lawrence D'Oliveiro . May 9th, 2007 @ 3:52pm
Guilds
There's nothing "modern" about the concept you're talking about. It's exactly the same idea as the professional and trade guilds in Europe in the Middle Ages. They were granted monopolies by the authorities in their particular areas of expertise, I suppose in return for ensuring some consistency of quality in their work.
Vincent Clement (profile ), May 9th, 2007 @ 4:14pm
Re: Looking forward
Protection of the public is how professional organizations justify their government granted monopoly powers. Before the internet how easy was to get information on a medical professionals? Surely, if 'protection of the public' is so important, shouldn't I, the lay person, know everything about a professional like a doctor or lawyer?
Guru80 . May 9th, 2007 @ 5:02pm
Re:
I belong to the UAW but since I live and work in Michigan just about everyone either has had a Union job, a relative has or they at the very least know someone who has. Unions, especially in the manufacturing and automotive industries are becoming irrelevant simply because we are losing our jobs. In my factory the vast majority of workers are now grandparents and my particular plant has only hired 2 times since the 70s. Kind of hard to keep membership up when nobody is replaced when lost to retirement and even though the workforce is getting older in a lot of circumstances they are doing more work than they have since the 70s. Anyone who romanticizes an UAW line assembly job has never been inside a factory in the last 20 years. It sucks, it is tedious and mundane and you stand on your fee for 10+ hours in the same 20 foot section of floor doing the same job 400+ times a day ever 60 seconds.
The Man . May 9th, 2007 @ 5:04pm
Unions = Evil
I was a member of a union (UAW and California Police Officers Association), my wife was in a Teachers Union. The union is only in place to make money for the union. Both police officers and teachers could make more money and have better working conditions without unions. (so can all other workers, I am sticking with what I have experience in because someone will claim I have no experiance so I am stupid) Unions limit the amount of money that can be earned by an individual and then take an manditory cut. The only way my wife could opt out was to have the union dues go to a charity instead of the union. When I had her request the due money be donated to the NRA or the NRC, the freaked out and gave a list of ultra left orginizations that the money had to go to.
Any back to free market. Lets take a good teacher and a struggling school for instance. The school could recruit the best teachers and pay a higher price or better working conditions to them to get them to go to work. A school could then have a great team of teachers and raise test scores. To ward off the poor inner city kid crying, in California the schools in the poorest areas get the most money. In this instance a school could work on quality teachers. No one is saying that a school would be able to pay private industry wages, just that teachers would be free to make as much as they can, not as much as the union says they can.
sam . May 9th, 2007 @ 6:26pm
don't get me wrong. i caovered the fact that some management of unions abuse their power, just as some politicians do. but i'm pretty sure no one here says we should do away with democracy.
unions as a group have raised the level of the members. i worked in a steel mill, used to hang around flint mich. so i've been a part of how unions can be, both good and bad.
in some areas, the growth of the individual would have occured without a union's galvanizing force. in other cases, ie coal miners. never would have happened! you would have simply had more deaths, more abuses by owners..
Nick . May 9th, 2007 @ 7:07pm
I strongly disagree with this post
I will grant that some aspects of professional organizations make them look like unions (protecting their members, dues requirements, etc.), but these are merely superficial similarities.
I would distinguish unions and professional organizations by the fact that professional organization membership requires some sort of certification. The ABA exists for lawyers (those with law degrees) and the AMA exists for doctors (those with medical degrees). Last I checked, traditional unions only required that you be employed in that trade.
When professional organizations strike out against competition, one needs to be careful to separate what is done to protect the trust that is placed in certification as a professional and that which done to leverage the power of a large group of people. Labor unions use their weight to enhance the benefits of their members (higher wages, better working conditions, more benefits) while professional organizations use (or should use) their weight to protect the legitimacy of the profession. Saying that someone is engaged in the unauthorized practice of law is less about securing a monopoly for lawyers than it is ensuring that people are dealing with people certified to help them with their problems. If I need a lawyer or doctor, I'm better off knowing that a self-regulating organization exists that ensures I'm getting the help I expect. I'm not sure that a labor union makes my car any safer.
Of course, this is not to say that some aspects of a professional practice don't need to be exclusively handled by professionals. To take one example, I know that Chilling Effects has DMCA takedown notice generator. Is that the unauthorized practice of law because a computer is drafting a legal document? Is the site liable because it wrote the program? In the example above, if Quicken came with a will template or will generator, would that be the unauthorized practice of law? These are interesting questions yet to be resolved.
I think the argument here should be what kinds of activities require membership in a professional organization. As more information migrates online and people increasingly become adept at learning on the fly through search engines, it means that more people are enabled to do for themselves what they used to need a professional for. Similarly, as technology progresses, more tasks can become automated. Even if a profession exists to protect members who merely plug numbers into a formula to tell you how much your house is worth - a task easily automated - there is still the issue of whether that number comes with any official weight. Arguably, every profession can be automated if we were smart enough and all that would be left would be how to have people trust the system.
But we are not there yet and I doubt we ever will be. As an example, take the guy that represents himself pro se against Google. There's lots of stuff on Techdirt pointing to IP articles that a person might think makes him able to represent himself in court. But he's no where near skilled enough to be effective, and soon there's a bad decision on the books that can be used as precedent. Now the guy's screwed it up for everyone. Was Techdirt giving legal advice? No, but you can see the problem. So perhaps there's a possibility that professional organizations will be irrelevant in the future, but certainly not yet and perhaps not even likely.
I actually think these professional organizations become more important as info becomes democratized. If anyone can purport to be an expert online, how can one distinguish between legitimate experts w/ proper training and those who just read a lot of blogs? If you've been closely following YouTube's legal troubles and don't have a legal degree you might not be able to spot some of the subtle errors in some of the of the legal arguments made in blog posts and news coverage. If these articles appear to be giving actual legal advice (if sued do this) and don't come from an attorney, it should be stopped out of respect for the guy that will follow it and end up getting screwed if its wrong.
I'm sorry this is long and disorganized, but I strongly disagree with this article and am trying to through out a lot of complaints here at once. For full disclosure, I'm taking the bar exam this July so you know where I'm coming from. If on some issues there's an easy low-cost automated solution I think it's a no brainer that it should be used. But in the end, it's all about trust and certification in a way that protects consumers. If that can be resolved, I may be more inclined to agree with this post.
Myself . May 9th, 2007 @ 9:54pm
I was in a union, which initially bumped my wage up to scale, but then inhibited my growth because their concept of advancement was based on time served, rather than skills mastered. Since leaving, I've advanced at my own pace and doubled my wage. Overall I support unions, I just think sometimes their self-interest gets in the way. Just my two cents' worth.
Another point I'd like to raise with unions is the argument that American unions have priced themselves out of the labor market. That may be true, and one way around it is to lower American wages. Another way is to raise wages around the globe, and one way to accomplish that is to support labor organizations overseas. American unions should be doing everything they can to support strong labor laws in Mexico and other places.
Myself . May 9th, 2007 @ 10:07pm
I was in a union, which initially bumped my wage up to scale, but then inhibited my growth because their concept of advancement was based on time served, rather than skills mastered. Since leaving, I've advanced at my own pace and doubled my wage. Overall I support unions, I just think sometimes their self-interest gets in the way. Just my two cents' worth.
Another point I'd like to raise with unions is the argument that American unions have priced themselves out of the labor market. That may be true, and one way around it is to lower American wages. Another way is to raise wages around the globe, and one way to accomplish that is to support labor organizations overseas. American unions should be doing everything they can to support strong labor laws in Mexico and other places.
reed . May 9th, 2007 @ 11:10pm
Re: Unions = Evil or Good
"Both police officers and teachers could make more money and have better working conditions without unions. (so can all other workers,"
Yes I have heard this stance before. Care to explain why this is so?
If no Unions existed then what would stop Schools from lowering the bar on education level to teach and hiring in grade school teachers at $12.50 a hour?
I read this from the Labor Research Association about Union benefits
"The bottom line is that union workers continue to receive benefits that are far superior to those provided for nonunion workers"
And then from a national compensation survey
"In 1997, unionized white-collar workers earned an average of 20.82 an hour, compares with 18.18 with their nonunion counterparts"
Of course I would imagine these comparisons are created on dubious grounds.
"Unions limit the amount of money that can be earned by an individual and then take an manditory cut."
I am not in a union, but I find it hard to believe they really limit wages and benefits compared to private industry. The market has already show us it has little stomach for benefits or retirement packages. Why would you think that if unions weren't around to compete with they suddenly would?
I think just the opposite would happen. Wages would fall just like they have over the past 30 years (5% down for inflation) along with the well known decline in union membership.
Unions aren't for everyone, but to say they no longer serve a real and good purpose, particularly for low wage earners, seems rather silly.
Joseph . Jan 21st, 2008 @ 5:40pm
I work in a unionized I. T. department and it is a mixed bag. The single best thing about it is that we are paid overtime so management doesn't make us waste a lot of our time sitting around in case something "might" happen. That happened all the time in my last job where we had to stay 7-8 hours after already working 8 hours "just in case". Now, if we work late or on weekends we are compensated for it. The downside of this is that salaries are lower than private industry, partly because overtime pay is unofficially already factored in.
The worst thing about it is that there are no rewards or bonuses, and promotions are all seniority-based. This has tended to make most people mediocre except for the hard-core geeks who really like technology and are always experimenting.
As for the questions earlier:
-How do the unions pay anybody? From Union dues, which are about $100 a month
-Do the unions use union labor at their facilities? Sí
-How much money do the unions bring in and what do they do with it? You can read their annual reports
-Do the unions contribute anything to the business? How do they have so much power? On a local scale, the unions are really just a group of employees banding together. On a national scale, I think they're getting a bit out of hand and no longer serve their membership, particularly in terms of their endless support for illegal immigration for some god-unknown reason.
TexasTommy . May 25th, 2008 @ 8:06am
Forget Protecting the Public?
As an attorney who seen so many prospective clients seeking rescue from DIY legal claims and documents, I say protecting the public is a very legitmate reason for restrictive practice legislation. Really, no lawyer makes real money on writing some will, that's just silly talk. Most lawyers are happy to ignore all those "legal forms to go" businesses, those consumers will find out the value of their bargain the hard way.
Unauthorized practice of law, unauthorized practice of medicine, and similar constraints on a free and open market for advice and services are based in other concerns than maximizing revenue for the licensed practicioner. To suggest it's just another unionizing tool is just weak thinking.
chris . May 31st, 2008 @ 12:21pm
License to Practice?
I just came across this thread recently and the reference to "Professional Unions" in the title of the lead article caught my eye. I happen to be a mechanical engineer and got a P. E. license (NY) back 1997. Over the years I've heard rumors about the formation of professional unions related to various engineering disciplines but nothing seems to have come of it - and I for one am glad!
I suppose it would be hard to argue that conventional labor unions had no place in U. S. (or world) history, but didn't that have everything to do with the situation that existed as labor moved from the farm to the factory? All through that period there was a huge influx of relatively unskilled labor (immigrants) and employers could get away with low wages, long hours, no benefits, etc. That's what the market would bear. (It's interesting to note the same condition exists today for the lowest tier of labor, but the immigrants are illegal. If the unions have a role to play today, it would be the fight against illegal immigration.)
Unions (artificially) changed the market conditions and employers were forced (in every sense of the word) to raise wages and offer benefits. The conditions that exist now became the "norm" over a long period of time, so what roll can a union play today? (See above side note.) In upstate NY I've seen companies shut down facilities (and destroy the towns they support) because the union was clueless about how markets operate. I've seen guys with union seniority sit on their butts reading the paper (and comment on the slide in their companies' stock performance!) while waiting a few hours for a MANDATORY 4 hour overtime shift to kick in! All I can do is shake my head and think WTF!
Professional organizations (or "guilds", if you want to call them that) typically require their members to pass a test and get a license. It's no small feat to get a professional engineers license. My wife is a veterinarian and she also must be licensed to practice. Some professions require an academic degree (law, medicine, etc.) but that's certainly not true in all cases. I view the license to practice any particular profession or trade as a "minimum requirement" - beyond that other factors (word of mouth, references, etc.) will guide consumers.
As far as the anecdote about Zillow and the Arizona real estate appraisers is concerned, I'm not sure I understand your complaint. If the law in Arizona says you have to be licensed to generate home value estimates (in Arizona), then Zillow should get the license. What would stop them? Sure it's a barrier of entry, but it's also state law. If enough people in Arizona don't like it and get a law-maker off his or her butt, they can change the law.
I think it's also worth mentioning that while all doctors have to be licensed to practice (within the law), they DON'T have to belong to their respective guild (the AMA). I'm not sure about each and every profession and the related guild, but all I have to do to practice as a professional engineer in NY is pass the test. I also have to keep up my CE (continuing education) - 36 hours worth every 3 years. It's the law.
john . Jun 30th, 2008 @ 10:14am
Re: Unions = Evil
Your comments about schools and test scores are simplistic at best. There is nothing preventing districts from paying bonuses to teachers who work in schools where the students need the best. It would be similar to paying a police officer more for working in a more difficult area. If you work harder, you should get more.
rob . Dec 21st, 2008 @ 11:40am
@ sam
I have belonged to a union and my father was a member of a union. I worked for a long time for a college in Washington State and was a member of the Washington Educators Association. This is the union that protects teachers in k-12 and Colleges and Universities. My father was a lifelong member of an Operating Engineers union (Local 701).
Insofar as I have experienced unions as a member and a dependent, I will say that the professional associations that manage certain careers have far more power than any union has had in the last 80 years and quite possibly ever.
Licensing bodies like the ABA AMA and Appraisers for that matter hold the keys to employment for the entirety of that field. No union could possibly tell you that you cannot operate a backhoe or drive a forklift, a union's power is limited to the employer that is part of the union's shop. And even that is limited these days as unions almost always have to allow a prospective employee to join the union if the employer wishes to hire that person. This is certainly true in education where membership in the union is both voluntary and unnecessary to be eligible for the benefits and protection of the union while at the job and even after if you have a grievance.
A traditional union would be useless to a non-member and in fact would most likely be quite a hindrance to an employee who shirked the union membership for employment (they are called scabs and while there are rules against it, scabs are often informally blacklisted when discovered).
The problem with Unions today is the same problem that plagues FDR and the new deal programs that saved the working class during the last depression. We forget our history. In the information age, there is little time to look at any problem deeply enough to really understand the reasons that certain programs and safeguards exist. In theory we all know that unions improved working conditions and saved lives as we became an industrial power after the first world war. We can see that 16 hour days in unsafe factories which were employing children as young as 7 or 8 in hazardous jobs was a bad idea. What we don't see is the root of that problem. That employers who are left to their own devices will extract the most production out of as few people and as cheaply as possible because the financial benefit is too great to pass up. Without regulatory agencies, enforcement agencies and a coordinated, educated workforce, you cannot prevent employers from returning to the days of company towns and exploited workers.
That being said, we need to re-evaluate the way we regulate ourselves. It seems rudimentary to institute unbiased and independent review of employee qualifications and working conditions. How does a licensing agency qualify as independent if it is made up of the very people that benefit from the scarcity of qualified workers? A union of workers in the information age does more than just preserve its members, it routinely trains and motivates new members through apprenticeship programs and education. A licensing agency on the other hand seems more involved with the limiting of the pool of available resources, often by means that have little to do with the improvement of the existing workforce. Look at the number of rules and regulations that proactively prevent otherwise capable people of going into a field based solely on unrelated events that have occurred in their lives. Tell me when the last time you heard a union tell someone that the possession of marijuana charge they had 5 years ago prevents them from working for them? Ask that same question of CPAs Attorneys Insurance Agents Nurses etc etc. What really drives me nuts it that it is these same pseudo managers that are members of the service-licensing industry that decry unions as too powerful. Just compare the real power of a union to a regulatory or license granting group and see if you don't come to the same conclusion that I have: Unions only wish they could be that powerful -- and it's a good thing they aren't that powerful. Likewise, licensing agencies should be free of conflicts of interest that arise from the scarcity of resources under their purview. A free and independent watchdog who serves to promote the growth and accessibility of services would best serve the overall economy. There is a reason that unions spend a great deal of time negotiating training and upgrades to the existing workforce's skill set as well as working closely with trade schools and apprenticeship programs to assure that the workers that do join are as qualified to be on the job as the non-union workers who learn their trade either less formally or simply on-the-job.
rob . Dec 21st, 2008 @ 12:17pm
Re: Unions
Unions are the furthest thing from the destruction of the american manufacturing environment. NAFTA and every trade agreement that promotes the benefits of moving a plant to a needy third world country has been the primary cause of the transfer of manufacturing jobs from here to *there*. Without the tax incentives given to businesses that move to targeted countries and systematic deregulation of pension protection programs these factories could not have made the move and these jobs would still be here. China may be able to produce the widgets cheaper than we did, however they could not have had the import advantage until Reagan and Clinton assured that protective trade practices were repealed in the laws like NAFTA. The only things that seem to remain protected are the fat subsidies that we pay to industries that haven't needed protection in more than 3 decades. When was the last time you heard of a major oil company or multinational agri-farmer go out of business?
On the other hand, with the destruction of of a national manufacturing base we have seen the near destruction of the auto industry, the complete removal of most electronics manufacturing as well as a host of other *labor intensive*, low value jobs. I don't mean to sound conspiratorial but it doesn't strike anyone as odd that the US automakers experience a higher part failure rate than foreign manufacturers experience? Afterall, aren't most of the parts that go into an american made vehicle made somewhere else? One would think that if you were in control of the quality of the parts going to your competitor that at the very least you would cherry pick the parts and at worse? Oh I don't know - maybe you would revert to lead based paint in children's toys -- because what? you didn't get the memo that there are laws about that? Listen, if we give up all the manufacturing jobs, if we let them build it all, then all they have to worry about is supply lines -- america can be lead around all day long if we cannot control the basis for the well-being of our own people. Now, are unions a little too 20th century? A little too mafia-hindered? Probably, but lets not blame them for what they didn't have a part in creating. Unions do really poorly when plants go out of business. Unions do really well when all their members are gainfully employed. Thus we come to the perception of unions protecting the lazy and the inept.
Are you freaking joking me? You mean that your supervisor or the manager at your place of employment didn't immediately get the police involved with the destruction of property claim? How bout the negligent driving? How bout wreckless endangerment? And you are telling me that there wasn't a single crime that they could have been charged with that would have nullified their union protection? Well sir, I would say 1. You haven't read your employment contract 2. the employees that were goofing off / destroying equipment / acting like idiots should have been immediately placed on no-pay leave while the HR department went over to finance and got their final checks written up. I have been a member of a union and while it is true that the employer was obligated to train / re-train and then go through seemingly insurmountable processes to get rid of some people, they were able to do it in cases of gross negligence in no time. In cases of poor training, yeah -- it's a pain that some reap the benefit of the protections that others had to live without long before they were ever able to have the security of mind that comes with the idea that a small mistake wouldn't cause their family to lose everything. I think Uninos, like all power centers are out of control. I think employers who fail to recognize and reward good employees do a disservice to their customers and themselves because happy well-trained and safe workers are generally more likely to do a good job for the employer. I think the Information Age makes it easy for me to negotiate my own wages and protect myself from the evils of an oppressive industry. Likewise, the spread of information has made the protections afforded us by licensed *bounty hunters* *hair stylists* and other dangerous professions is probably at least AS destructive a force -- and the force that is used in that regard is one that benefits only those already licensed. A union cannot and does not prevent people from working in a field that they want to work in. At most they make working in those fields a safer more equitable arrangement than would otherwise exist
Ron . Jan 18th, 2009 @ 10:09pm
Re: Re: Unions = Evil or Good
It's absurb to suggest that people could make more money if unions did not exist. I suggest the opposite would take place. Maybe the union needs to be retooled to fit the 21st century workforce. The fear that most businesses experience is the inability simply fire its workforce at any cause regardless of the problem of the employee, with a union in place. In effect businesses use scare tactics to force its workforce to work longer hours regardless in place work rules. This process allows for workers to be discarded at will and a cheap workforce worker to replace, the discarded when a manager creates the perfect picture that saves the company expenses. In addition business in the US are pushing for expansion of technical/non-technical workforce outside of the United States which offers cheapen labor rates. It may be that business leaders are creating more of a workforce class disparity in the name of revenue and resource management.
Johnbag Currier . Jan 21st, 2009 @ 9:48am
Taming a Tiger?
Tiger Woods was fined by the PGA (Professional Golfers Association) for speaking his mind, in America. The PGA rule, Section VI-D in the PGA Tour's player handbook says, "It is an obligation of membership to refrain from comments to the news media that unreasonably attack or disparage tournaments, sponsors, fellow members, players, or PGA Tour."
It is very sad that expressing your opinion is punishable if you belong to a professional organization like the PGA. The Constitution’s Bill of Rights are being destroyed day by day.
Hard Work
Labor must work as hard work. require a lot of energy. better work with the brain and the results will also be better. chevy repair manual
If It Works!
Obviously technology displaces workers and that is usually a good thing as workers adapt and move to more useful work. But is the pattern really working out for us? Sure, we no longer need fifty men to cut our lawns as we have power mowers. But we now have too many unemployed who drain the system's wealth. We may no longer have huge numbers of women working at the phone company but talking on the phone is still expensive. And factories no longer hire huge crowds of workers but the price of a new car is far worse than in 1920. So is technology helping us or drowning us? So far it's a toss up.
Re:
Not only are unions a counterbalance to management in many areas so to is organized crime. Whenever an economy begins to be captured by forceful elements that make life difficult for people unions and organized crime can emerge and actually improve the living conditions in a city or region.
Responder . Sep 29th, 2009 @ 9:25am
Re: Unions
The average teacher salary is very low for someone with as much education as a teacher usually must have (often a master's degree is required). I think that free health insurance is not out of line.
Working Hard
It happens in every society when people are not getting the opportunities to get good money from their work. If you see around you, many people are working 2 jobs a day
You see these things going on every day. Especially right now in Michigan with the big three auto makers.
Hankelvis . Nov 12th, 2009 @ 11:37am
Union President
Conservatives are saddened that union employees are coerced into demonstrating for the privilege of paying more taxes to pay for their own health care. This will let large organizations off the hook and reduce the rights of all workers. Unions are now partnered with big business with no function left but to control the workers. The Unions exploit the grievances of the worker as well as the socialists and progressives. They appeal to factions of gullible millennial youth. Particularly those in Europe and the U. S. that have been groomed by the Union-led cable-news political-machine-conglomerates. Like Obama, they present vague promises open to interpretation. They offer up empty promises. A perfect deception fueled soley by self-imagined eventful futures for a generation of bored, low-acheiving, outcome-based learners with short attention spans. Union exploitation is selective and opportunistict. Their tactics are devoid of concious or mercy with no thought as to consequence. They are a ligitamized crime-spree in progress. Democrats, thirsty for power, trade their ethics for Union "support" to gain power in a "devils bargain". Unions now hold patriotic Americans hostage as they double-cross the witless politicians and take control for themselves.
This is very confusing.
This is very confusing. I think that looking at and buying beautiful photography is a lot more fun. Lo siento chicos.
Professional Slackers, errr. Unions
My biggest issue is that unions, like fractions, appeal to the Greatest Common Denominator; you get get paid X $$$ no matter what you do or how good you are so you can be next to a slug who is getting rock star pay for doing as little as possible. Never mind that you *are* a rock star and want more, the contract says you get 'X'.
If I work hard, do a great job, and can negotiate for myself (like I have for the last 17 years) then I don't need a union, representation, collective - read Borg - bargaining. If someone is a professional - particularly in IT - and can't bargain for themselves after a few hours of research, then they should just quit thier 'professional' job and go be a stock monkey somewhere.
Unions in a professional environment are as outdated as that 1970s lava lamp the union president at CRS kept in his office. There's just no need for them; there's no 'great struggle against the man' and there isn't a 'Socialist struggle againt the Capitalist expoliters' post 1975. They have outlived thier usefuleness in the United States.
docwatson223 (profile ), Dec 20th, 2009 @ 3:18pm
Re: Another way is to raise wages around the globe, and one way to accomplish that is to support labor organizations overseas. American unions should be doing everything they can to support strong labor laws in Mexico and other places.
and here is where unions go off the flywheel into Marxist Dream Theory and economic idiocy; the fixed cost of an item is 'x' because the labor to produce said item is added to the cost of the raw materials used to produce it. Add some profit and taxes and you have the final, moderately flexible total cost of an item.
Lower labor costs usually means lower costs for items. To whit, WALMART - and it's US comsumers - benefit from this arrangement with cheap labor in China and SE Asia. In relative terms and over time, raising the cost of labor would mean that everything is more expensive (even where it is produced; cars aren't any cheaper in Detroit) and we're back to where we started since the only thing achieved is to raise the bar on the cost of everything.
Unions are *NOT* the answer in bad economic times - especially for professionals with brains and creativity.
robert123 . Mar 17th, 2010 @ 11:29pm
Harry Johnson . Sep 7th, 2011 @ 9:12am
Re: Unions = Evil
You are full of crap. I have worked as a tool and die maker and as a degreed mechanical engineer. In the tool and die trade, management fought tooth and nail against craft unionization in several shops where I live. After the fight was over a couple of managers admitted privately that the toolmakers were worth far more than they were being paid but the management would never, ever give it up willingly. In the two machinist and IBEW union shops in the area, the union prevented one thing. It prevented the implementation of a brown nose system where the rewards go to brown nosers and faorites over the high performing workers.
In my current profession, I am regularly approached by recruiters and companies trying to get me to move from my present position. They butter me up, saying I have rare and valuable skills. When I suggest that if my skills are so rare then supply and demand should bring better wages, I am told it does not work that way. So much for free markets and supply and demand. Whoever has the gold makes the rules, then whines because people don't rush right in to take whatever he gives them.
Harry Johnson . Sep 7th, 2011 @ 3:53pm
Re: Looking forward
Eso es una tontería. Professional organizations look to protect themselves under a veneer of looking out for the public good. They are unions with better public relations. Pharmacists, for instance, are paid very, very generously to put pills from the big bottle into the little bottle. Nada mas. But their organization protects them. Any organization of salesboys, like the fake estate agents are just looking out to pad commissions. There is no reason for fake estate agent licensing except to keep people out of the game. There is a long, long list of similar occupations. There are a small handful such as medical doctors and structural engineers, which require extensive education to be effective and the poor execution of their work may put the public at risk but these are the exceptions.
Re: Re:
You probably shouldn't make assumptions. I have a degree in labor relations Ah, but it's all in the context. If you use your degree in Labor Relations to protect corporations, your understanding of union history could well be suspect, but if you use the degree to protect workers you might have something worth hearing.
If you don't use your degree at all except to post comments on blogs, then you've probably been screwed like everyone else.
Jonathan . Mar 10th, 2012 @ 11:22am
Re: Unions = Evil
Bueno, sí. Unions exist to limit the amount of money predators can make. Somehow, and I think it's due to Ayn Rand, predation somehow became a moral imperative in Western life. That you don't like unions proves that you need them.
Jonathan . Mar 10th, 2012 @ 11:32am
Pat . Nov 3rd, 2015 @ 5:07am
Predatory Democracy follows Predatory Capitalism
What happens to societies that lose the very thing that Unions were created for: the work?
If Unions had been stronger, jobs would not be overseas in the first place. It appears Unions were playing one game: to apply pressure politics to get a greater share of the profit pie, and what the Job Creators/Managers were playing: cultivating a work force cheaper, who work harder, and faster. It just happened to be overseas.
Neither Unions, nor Managers were on the same page, and it arises from lack of communication. - secret backrooms agreements, etc.
¿Ahora que? What to do with an organization long dedicated to organizing, using leverage to intimidate those with superior resources to share those resources? When turned to politics, the beat goes on. except now it becomes intimidation democracy, with minions for and minions against candidates. The FEC has allowed managers the privilege of continued intimidation and leverage too - by the Citizens United decision, etc.
We are at the same place, but without jobs, and the work down benefits only insiders - a political class growing exponentially.
Without jobs, what should human energy and effort be used for except remuneration to become the minions of promoters or opposition forces?
Clearly, America is disorganized in that it is unorganized using the same tactics for similar, but entirely different objectives. That world leaves out many, and creates a hostle republic. Having lost our trading nation, inequality inevitably must follow - much like the Russian Revolution.
No one wants to live in an oppressive, predatory democracy!
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Communist China in the 21st Century
Today, China is a nation standing at the crossroads of history.
Trade and investment benefits both the West and China. Within China, both the common people and, unfortunately, the communist government benefit from economic development. The benefits from economic development provide the Chinese dictatorship with the financial resources to purchase advanced weapons and technology, which it in turn uses to maintain control over the populace.
If China remains a communist regime with significant economic power, this will not portend well for the Chinese people or world peace.
The twentieth century witnessed many catastrophes in human society: killings during two world wars, mass destruction by atomic bombs, and the rapid spread of AIDS. However, these catastrophes, taken together, are far dwarfed by the experiments carried out to bring about the "communist ideal". Inestimable are the prices we paid in politics, economics, culture, moral, human rights and other fields due to the practice of communism.
Beginning in the nineties, a series of communist powers, big and small, like fallen leaves swept away by the autumnal wind, simply disappeared from the horizon. This is the current of history. All of those evil communist powers had struggled briefly before they were washed down the river into the sea. Facing crises, they all tried in a thousand and one ways to survive. They tried to extricate their communist powers through political and economical reforms. However, they were unsuccessful.
Today, China is a nation standing at the crossroads of history. It is a nation whose struggles, as its people collectively ponder which way to go, will become an important international issue that the rest of the world will have to deal with in the new century.
The present situation in mainland China can be summarized with Lenin's words: "Those at the top are no longer able to rule the old way, and those at the bottom do not accept being ruled the old way."
Since the establishment of the People's Republic of China in 1949, the country has known only one form of government: Mao Zedong's comparatively orthodox communism, with its emphasis on isolation and "class struggle". After Mao's death, Deng Xiaoping launched a form of market-oriented communism with "Chinese characteristics". There are significant differences between Mao's and Deng's economic systems, stemming from Mao's refusal to implement the type of capitalism that Deng permitted in his later years and which is thriving today in China. However, their political approaches were fundamentally the same. Both Mao and Deng relied on the politics of totalitarian despotism, and only differed in their means, modes, and methods of rule.
After Khrushchev seriously condemned Stalin in 1955, the Soviet Union under Khrushchev and Brezhnev was different from the Soviet Union of Stalin's day. However, it remained a communist "evil empire" until 1991. Since Mao's death in 1976, have we ever heard Deng Xiaoping, Jiang Zemin or other Chinese Communist leaders publicly condemn Mao Zedong? Modern China remains under the firm control of the Chinese Communist Party, and is not a "former communist country."
Let us picture China's communist regime as a gigantic building. For most of the first three decades it looked ugly and terrible from the outside because of its disastrous poverty, communist atrocities and uncooperative international attitude. But the ugly building was stable, its pillars were strong and the majority of the Chinese people believed that living in it, under the Communist Party's leadership, was their best hope for future prosperity.
Under the rule of Deng and China's current leaders, the appearance of this Chinese Communist building has changed. As Western technology and capital have flooded in, the building has taken on a colorful appearance, but the pillars that support it are now cracking, because the concept of communism as a guiding principle has already been thrown onto the trash heap of history. This ideological void constitutes a crisis in the minds of ordinary Chinese. For thousands of years, dynasty after dynasty, the Chinese have maintained a tradition of following a leader with "the mandate of heaven." Today's communist leaders have no such mandate, and the pillars of the communist building continue to crumble.
The major factor contributing to the failure of communist ideology in China is the fact that the state's ownership of the nation's primary means of production has not led to a better life for the common people. Evidence of this fact can be seen in the former Soviet bloc, where countries have changed their political systems, but are, in many cases, still struggling, because privatizing the means of production is not easy work.
Capitalist economic forces - especially those imported from abroad - are the fuel powering China's current economic development. Small systems of private ownership, meanwhile, are growing in China. Legal status has been granted to private ownership. In rural areas, authorities are allowing the hiring of farmhands and transfer of right of land use. Also, bankruptcy is now permitted, where it was not before. But these reforms, and the existence of capitalist-driven economic development do not indicate that the Chinese Communist Party is going to give up the state-ownership system that is the bedrock of communism, and the contradictions between the two systems are serious and unpredictable.
The issue of domestic control reveals another crack in the pillars. The Chinese Communists believe in Mao's maxim that "power comes from the barrel of a gun." Mao and Deng were both soldiers who naturally commanded the respect of the People's Liberation Army. President Hu Jintao has no background with the PLA, but he is trying to control it. Only time will tell whether or not he will be able to succeed at this difficult task.
The simple fact is that since the establishment of the Chinese Communist Party in 1921, its internal power struggles have never ceased. Most of the CCP's leaders have been killed, not by foreign enemies, but by their own comrades. Because the CCP is a dictatorial system, it follows the concept of one country, one party, and one leader. In recent times, Party leaders have tried to present themselves to the world with the friendly face of a collective leadership. However, this has been undertaken at the risk of ignoring history. Hu could be on his way to becoming China's new communist leader, but if he shows weakness, others will try to topple him. I don't believe we can predict what the outcome of the Party's internal power struggle will be, but it is clear that it will become more heated as time goes on. As China's centrally-planned economic system continues to break up and regional power bases continue to grow, the political crisis that is smoldering will become more apparent. I believe this could lead to a Chinese civil war in this century.
Another crack in the building's pillars runs through the people themselves. Having endured decades of oppression under the Communists, the people, sooner or later, will cry out. This quiet but simmering rebellion has many faces. The nationwide movement for religious freedom, the Tibetan freedom fighter resistance movement and the Uyghur separatist movement in the Northwest could all become serious problems for the communist government. There is a great deal of underground literature being circulated throughout China today, and underground publications are deeply critical of the ruling authorities.
Considering all of the cracks in this colorful communist building, it could, just like the Berlin Wall, collapse in one night. But even if this were to happen, it would not mean that a free, democratic and peaceful nation would rise out of the rubble. I believe that tyrannical systems will persist in China for a long time to come.
Marxist-Leninist ideology in today's China is but a thin coat covering the body of a traditional and tyrannical Chinese dynasty. The communist system of political dictatorship is in many ways the same as the former dynastic systems. The Communist Party controls the government, military forces, media, economy and educational system. What is different from the P. R.C.'s earlier years is that today, "nationalism" and "patriotism," instead of communism/socialism, have become the major political slogans of the communist regime.
The two banners of "nationalism" and "patriotism" both deeply rooted in Chinese society, are very effective in upholding the rule of the communist regime. The Chinese, particularly intellectuals, never differentiate between the motherland and the ruler. For millennia they have been indoctrinated: be loyal to your sovereign and love your nation. This doctrine is the root of the same tree that created the slogans, "he who loves the Party loves the nation; he who opposes the Communist Party thus opposes China." Communist rulers can even strip the garb of "communism" and still effectively uphold their totalitarian system, using "nationalism" and "patriotism" as dams against the mighty torrent of democracy and freedom.
Envision China as a bird with two wings, that of politics and the economy. The bird cannot fly with either of its wings tied up. The Soviet bird, with its economic wing bound up, desperately flapped its political wing, only to crash. What will happen to the Chinese communist bird?
Genuine economic transformation can only be achieved through the transfer of the ownership of means of production to the private sector, but it is clear that Party leaders are not considering allowing the 850 million peasants who live in rural areas to own the land they farm, or giving all the ordinary people of China more say about where they live and work.
China is, however, well on its way to becoming an economic giant. China is also on its way to becoming a military giant. If the totalitarians in Beijing have their way, the availability of ready cash and military power will transform them into a communist giant. If this comes to pass, Western leaders will have to make difficult decisions about how to deal with this emerging communist giant. China's economic success is certainly not to the credit of the socialist state-owned economy. It must be pointed out that most profits from international trade and investment go to the government and help further prop a communist regime.
According to the International Monetary Fund, China's share of the global economy (adjusted for price differences) increased from 3.2% in 1980 to 12.6% in 2003. With this quadrupling in its proportion of global output, China's economy became the world's seventh largest. Meanwhile, the ratio of the economies of the U. S. Japan, Russia, Germany, the UK and Italy to the world economy remained approximately the same or decreased during the same time period.
In March, Chinese officials announced a plan to increase military expenditures by 12.6% this year to 247.7 billion yuan ($29.9 billion). According to analysts, these numbers are an incomplete indicator of the actual scale of resources China is pouring into defense. According to the CIA, China's publicized military budget is "less than half of China's actual defense spending." Other military analysts say that China's actual defense spending could be up to three times more than its stated figure, as Beijing does not include new arms purchases and weapons' research and development in its figures.
China currently has the world's third-largest submarine force, and it continues to upgrade its submarine fleet, by embarking on a $10 billion submarine acquisition and upgrade program. Military analysts say that China is rapidly expanding its submarine force to about 85 by 2010, about one-third more than today. According to an April report in the Washington Times, China has rebuilt its old nuclear-powered submarines and added French electronics and sonar equipment. The report says these subs now carry submarine-launched cruise missiles. It states that he first of China's newest nuclear attack submarine, Type 093, is nearing completion and the second is under construction, with two more planned.
China's rapid economic expansion has driven up its demand for foreign oil and other commodities and its interest in foreign consumer markets. As China gains more and more economic power, it is racing forward in terms of overseas investments, and Chinese companies are moving to expand their international business holdings. There are several recent examples of this phenomenon. For one, China's third-largest oil and natural gas company, China National Offshore Oil Corp. bid for a purchase of U. S. oil company Unocal, although it was recently beat out by ChevronTexaco. Unocal is the ninth-largest oil company in the U. S. in terms of reserves.
The Chinese government said in January that China's foreign exchange reserves hit a record US$609.9 billion at the end of 2004, up 51.3 percent from a year ago and second only to Japan's. According to the Xinhua news agency, China's new foreign exchange reserves last year included US$60.6 billion in foreign direct investment, US$32 billion in trade surplus as calculated by customs, US$30 billion from foreign exchange clearing under the account of imports and exports by enterprises, US$35 billion in foreign debts, over US$10 billion in service trade surplus, US$30 billion in individual asset transfer and earnings and over US$10 billion in securities investment.
An assumption has been in vogue recently that a prosperous economy will gradually bring democracy and human rights to the people living under the yoke of a totalitarian regime. This would indeed be an ideal and peaceful transition from totalitarianism to democracy. But if this theory is valid, why was it not applied to the Soviet Union and its Eastern European satellites, and why is it not applied to today's Cuba? Economic growth without the expansion of civil liberties has its limits, and we must remember that capitalism does not equal democracy. We should remember that under Hitler's Nazi regime from 1933 to 1937, Germany's economy increased by 73 percent, but because the country was ruled by tyrants, Germany and the world were led into disaster.
It is widely believed that engaging Communist China's leadership and integrating China into the international community will encourage China to comply with international norms. To believe this is to ignore history. Past and present Chinese practices confirm that China only follows its own rules, even in the face of fierce international condemnation.
The Beijing government has opened up China's vast and attractive investment to Western capital. China has offered up a 1.3 billion population of cheap manpower to the West, and the West has accepted it with relish. In fact, to some extent, China's totalitarian rule is favorable to foreign investors, with the Chinese government swiftly and deftly silencing labor unions and civil rights groups. Money is quick to come by when one turns a deaf ear and a blind eye to the plight of workers.
The Chinese Communists are masters of manipulation and deception. The Chinese ambition of becoming a world superpower is the foundation upon which its foreign policy is built. China wants Western money, advanced technology, management skills, and market share in order to modernize and fuel its military buildup in preparation for "the inevitable confrontation" (as a leading Chinese think tank put it) that it must face on the road to becoming a world superpower. The West must accept this reality.
History has repeatedly taught us that appeasing dictators does not bring peace or prosperity to the citizens of the countries they rule over. If we are to believe that trade can convert a communist system of rule, then World War II should not have been fought. According to this belief, Nazism would have been dismantled as a result of other countries giving Hitler all the high-tech equipment he wanted. If we are to believe that trade will create democracy in China, then Ronald Reagan was mistaken when he described the Soviet Russia as an "evil empire," and told Moscow to "tear down this wall!" History has shown that appeasement will only lead to the deaths of millions after dictators have been strengthened through trade.
The shrewdness of Deng Xiaoping and his successors cannot be denied. The rapid growth of capitalism they have allowed has given Communist China enough economic leverage to buy off all external pressure. As China's economy has grown, Western money and technology have acted as the fuel in the tank that is powering the Chinese Communist vehicle.
While they are dealing with the West on a commercial level, China's leaders keep in their hearts a deep-seated fear of real democracy and the human rights that go with it. When they are confronted about this question, these leaders reflexively say that Asian concepts of human rights differ from those of the West. It is a sad but all-too-common thing to hear their Western partners echo this convenient lie.
In seeking to keep a lid on the internal pressure its brutal rule creates, the Chinese government has consistently relied on its Laogai system as its most fundamental means of control. In Chinese, "Laogai" literally means "reform through labor." I believe that "politically-imposed system of slavery," is a better definition. The Laogai possesses many of the same characteristics as Stalin's gulag and Hitler's concentration camps.
Hitler's Nazi ideology divided people by race. Stalin's and Mao's communist ideology divided people by class. All three rulers were criminals. All three established forced labor camps to destroy human beings. Driven by ideology, party directives and the whims of dictators, the Chinese Communists established a repressive machine designed to control and eliminate people with contrary political views, religious believers, and those with a different concept of society.
We have done a great deal to help China develop its economy, and we have also benefited from China's economic development. But have we done enough to help improve the human rights situation and initiate political reform in China? Despite economic improvements that have been made, serious human rights violations continue to be perpetrated in all areas of Chinese society.
Those who deal with a totalitarian regime must never overlook its human rights issues. The international community must give the Chinese authorities a clear-cut ultimatum. They must stress that they expect to see a peaceful, prosperous, free and democratic China, and by no means a prosperous and stable Communist China. Human rights issues must have their unalienable place in China policy. The international community must state clearly that political reform and human rights improvement must not only accompany economic development, but must be the bench mark for reform. Genuine peace and prosperity are possible only in an environment that respects human rights, democracy and freedom.
An exciting period of technological change lies ahead. But how will these new breakthroughs affect economy and society as a whole and what are their implications for policy?
Director, International Futures Programme
The interaction between the evolution of technology and the development of economy and society has always been an important dimension of human history. This applies to the Iron and Bronze Ages as well as to modern times. The transition from the agricultural society towards the industrial society provides the most pertinent illustration of the profound implications which the full diffusion of new technologies can have on family structures, work relations, settlement patterns, economic and political power configurations, and also on behaviour patterns and value systems. The relationship between technology on the one hand and economy and society on the other is not uni-directional. Not only does technological progress result in the continuous change of economic and social structures, but the latter, including the evolution of attitudes and values, has at the same time a major impact on the direction and the speed of technology development. The industrial society of today, characterised by mass production, mass consumption and mass government, is in many ways a complex incarnation of the technologies of the 20th century. But there is no doubt that the profound change in political, economic and social structures has provided the conditions to enable the transition to a new paradigm.
Breakthroughs will drive change
Looking at technology developments at the turn of the 21st century, there seems to be once again a broad range of new technical breakthroughs in reach. Further rapid progress is expected in information technology, new materials, genetics technology, environment protection and energy technologies, to name just a few. New possible combinations and interactions of the various technologies will also be of major importance. Prominent examples include information technology and telecommunications as well as energy and environment technologies. However, only a few of these technologies appear to be pervasive enough or to provide mankind with new basic capacities for them to have a major impact on society.
In a thirty-year perspective, genetics technology as well as energy and environment technologies could hold this potential. But looking ahead towards the next ten years or so, the main driving force for economic and social change will be information technology. After a quarter of a century of gradual development and diffusion, many believe that information technology is on the verge of a new take-off. This is partly due to genuine technology evolution; however, it is also partly the result of changing economic and social structures. These are increasingly adapting to the new organisational and institutional patterns required for the full and most effective use of the new technology, thereby contributing now to the push for further technological progress.
The networked economy
Beyond the convergence of computers, television and telephones, tomorrow's powerful desktop computers will be characterised by the use of sensory input and output devices, by the use of intelligent agent software and, most importantly, an all pervasive network connectivity. In particular, the latter will lead to another important feature of tomorrow's information technology, notably universal "smartness". In the longer term, people will be used to having networks connecting everything. They will experience smart furniture, kitchens and offices, they will live and work in smart buildings, and they will drive sensor-conducted smart cars on smart highways. A further highly promising application is imaging, which will be used for highly sophisticated bar codes, video marketing and virtual goods. Complex technical products, such as automobiles, skyscrapers or aircrafts, will as a routine matter be designed, planned, built, tested and evaluated in cyberspace before being manufactured for real. A decade from now, information technology will in all probability have penetrated every aspect of human activity. Once again, the interaction between the evolution of technology and the development of economy and society will have led to profound changes with regard to when, where and how people work, play and rest; to how, where and what people consume and produce; and to when, where and how they interact with other people, with business, social organisations or government.
Computer-enabled electronic commerce is likely to modify significantly current ways of doing business. Anyone with a computer and Internet access can benefit from the enlarged choice and the competitive supply on the global market place. Performance is difficult to measure in this context, but it is interesting to know that Amazon. com, a well-known Internet bookseller, holds 13 million titles, whereas the biggest bookshops in New York arrive at no more than 180,000. Estimates of world-wide electronic commerce revenues vary sharply, but there is no doubt that they will rise dramatically -- certainly by about 1000% over the next four to five years. Electronic commerce will also lead to modifications in value chains: some will be dismantled, and others re-assembled. Most importantly, there will be a process of dis-intermediatisation. Many intermediate agents between producers and consumers will have to change their role or disappear. Examples include travel agencies, insurance brokers, local bank offices and many sectors of retailing.
Towards a creative society
There will also be major implications for social organisation -- in private life, business and government. The advanced power of computing, coupled with low cost telecommunications, may lead to new kinds of communities -- both real and virtual. The possibility of teleworking, teleshopping and telelearning may result in a move away from the big urban agglomerations and give rise to new developments in settlement patterns. Easy access to interactive global networks together with further simplification of computer use, will enhance the spread of today's embryonic "cyber" communities. In business, there may be a strong tendency towards bi-polarisation of company structures -- a trend towards very big global players on the one side, and very small, highly specialised companies on the other. In business and government, many foresee the end of the traditional hierarchical command and control structures. These may be increasingly replaced by horizontal networks and co-operative teams, providing members with greater freedom and responsibility in decision-making. All this will increase efficiency further, but at the same time, will provide scope for growing diversity, for greater individual choice and for many new opportunities for people's self-determination and self-fulfilment.
Nonetheless, technological advances in themselves provide no foregone conclusion as to the extent and manner in which they will be used. In order to realise the promises of 21st century technologies -- in particular information technology -- individuals, business and governments need to embrace a culture of creativity, experimentation and openness to change. Policy at national and international levels has to ensure that the benefits are shared by society as a whole. It should also see to it that, wherever possible, potential risks associated with the new technologies are controlled and undesirable side-effects contained without unduly impairing technological, economic and social dynamism.
©OECD Observer No 217/218 Summer 1999
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In 1901, by royal warrant, Philip Morris & Co. became the royal tobacconist to King Edward VII… and with success came growth. Just one year later, the company expanded its business to the United States.
In 1938, the company went public… and investors have been reaping the rewards ever since.
Between 1957 and 2007, Philip Morris was the single highest-returning stock in the United States. A $1,000 investment in Philip Morris in 1957 would be worth about $5.8 million today.
Although Altria's returns are the best in the business, other tobacco companies have performed almost as well. Even today, amid declining smoking rates in the U. S. tobacco companies continue to outperform other equities.
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And more importantly right now, downturns in the tobacco sector do not seem to correspond with market downturns.
Tobacco Is Alive and Well in the U. S.
I'm not saying tobacco companies can't correct… In 1999, the tobacco index fell by a precipitous 60%. But the stocks were back at new highs a year later…
The fall came after the index was selling for a relatively high 23 times earnings. The companies had settled a number of lawsuits in 1998, and investors were optimistic. After an adverse court ruling in Florida, the index fell down to a P/E of 6.1.
The constant risk of litigation is why this sector is usually so cheap, with a median P/E of 13. But right now, it's relatively pricey…
Although well below all-time highs, the tobacco index is selling for 15 times earnings (18% above its median). Investors are probably bidding these stocks up, cashing in on their reputation for being a safe haven in a tough market.
With these valuations, I wouldn't hop on tobacco right now for a short-term trade. But as you can see, the sector has always been a good long-term hold.
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Militarism and imperialism in the 21st century
Claude Serfati* from International Viewpoint
The relationship between militarism, war and capitalism has a new relevance at the beginning of the 21st century. This ‘war without limits’, the new political programme adopted by the Bush administration, marks a significant change in the militarism of US capitalism and, more than ever, the globalization of capital and militarism appear as two aspects of imperialist domination.
R osa Luxemburg noted that “militarism has a specific function in the history of capital. It accompanies every historic phase ofaccumulation” 1. Her analyses bring out what one might nowadays call the ‘historicity’ of the relationship of militarism to capital and they retain their pertinence today. She defines “the imperialist phase of accumulation [as] a phase of the global competition of capital [which] has the entire word as its theatre. Here the methods employed are colonial policy, the system of international borrowing, the policy of spheres of interest, war. Violence, cheating, pillage are openly employed, without any mask”. This is contrary to the “bourgeois liberal theory [which] separates the economic domain of capital from the other aspect, that of the blows of force, considered as more or less fortuitous, of foreign policy”.
Luxemburg stressed in a very contemporary manner that “political violence is also the instrument and vehicle of the economic process; the duality of the aspects of accumulation conceals the same organic phenomenon, originating in the conditions of capitalist reproduction” [stress by this author].
In his polemic against Dьhring, Engels analyses the relationship between militarism and the technological development of capitalism. History shows that the conduct of wars rests on the production of weapons, which itself depends on the state of the economy, more precisely on industrial and technological development, because “industry remains industry, whether it is applied to the p roduction or the destruction of things” 2. Engels notes the radical changes that took place after capitalism came to dominate the world. “The modern warship is not only a product, but at the same time a specimen of modern large-scale industry, a floating factory”. For him “militarism dominates and is swallowing Europe”; and this formula would find a tragic confirmation in the war that broke out between the European imperialisms in 1914.
Weapons production is not only “a specimen of modern large-scale industry”; since the Second World War, it has been at the heart of technological trajectories essential to the mode of production (aeronautics and space, electronics, the nuclear industry). The military expenditure of the United States, but also that of the other imperialist countries, reached extraordinarily high levels in the subsequent five decades, supposedly to meet the threat represented by the USSR. In the latter country, the gigantic sums devoted to defence consolidated the ruling caste and its parasitic existence, while also contributing to the bleeding of productive and financial resources.
The outstanding fact since the Second World War is a deep implantation of the military-industrial system in the economy and society of the US, which has in no way been weakened by the disappearance of the USSR; on the contrary it is now entering a new stage of consolidation. This strengthening of the military-industrial system rests on a conjuncture of factors: an industrial concentration and an ever closer liaison of the weapons companies with financial capital, an increase in the military budget embarked on by Clinton in 1999 and considerably amplified by Bush, and a strengthened presence in information and communication technologies (ICT). These technologies benefited from Reagan’s Strategic Defense Initiative (‘star wars’) and play a determinant role in ‘information domination’ and ‘network centric warfare’ 3 which were the favored themes of Pentagon strategists in the 1990s.
Military supremacy has allowed US weapons companies to conquer a central position in the development of ICT, dominated in the 1990s by the civil companies (the so-called ‘new economy’ and its associated start-ups).
The weapons companies must also develop new weapons systems for ground forces. The preparation of ‘urban wars’ (the expression employed by the Pentagon experts) waged by soldiers armed with hyper-sophisticated weapons, occupies an important place in the military budgets. The aim is to wage war against the populations of the immense agglomerations in the countries of the South (those of South America obsess US strategists), and eventually against the ‘dangerous classes’ of the cities of the North. One can then envisage that the major influence the weapons groups have acquired inside the federal and state institutions since the second world war, together with the broadening of the ‘national security agenda’ to non-military objectives 4 which increasingly concern aspects of social and private life, will accelerate the formation of a ‘military-security system’. This latter will, in the coming years, play a much more important role than that of the ‘military-industrial complex’ during the Cold War. The formation of this military-security system gives the US state a considerable power.
Imperialism in the 21st century
We are far from the decline of the ‘state form’ of the domination of capital, which, according to Hardt and Negri, would give way to an ‘Empire’ inside of which capital and labour would confront each other without mediation 5. To maintain its domination, capital cannot do without a political apparatus, institutions (judiciary, military and so on) which have been constituted, strengthened and streamlined for two centuries in the framework of the states of the dominant capitalist countries. ‘World capitalism’, the sense spoken of by these authors, does not exist. Capital, as a social relationship, certainly has a propensity transcend national frontiers and other barriers (forms of socio-political o rganization for example). The “world market is contained in the very notion of capital” as Marx said, but it is a process marked by contradictions which are expressed in inter-capitalist and inter-imperialist rivalries as well as in crises. That is why the global extension of capital has always taken and will continue to take on a physiognomy inextricably linked to the inter-state relationship of f o rces and its associated violence.
The domination of the US over the other imperialist countries is obvious. That is one reason why the breakout of inter-imperialist wars like those that took place in the 20th century is improbable. The integration of transatlantic capital, between the US and a part of the European Union, continues, and has constituted one of the distinctive features of ‘globalization’ in the late 20th century. The dominant classes of the US and the EU are, to a certain extent, in the situation that Marx described in relation to the competition between capitalists: “while there is little love lost between them in competition among themselves”, they “form a veritable freemason society vis-а-vis the whole working-class” and, need we add, vis-а-vis the peoples of the countries subjected to their domination 6.
Globalization of capital and militarism
The improbability of wars between the dominant capitalist powers does not render obsolete the relation between war and imperialism identified by Marxism at the beginning of the 20th century. It is enough to think of what would happen if the capitalist transformation of China under the control of the bureaucracy of the Chinese CPcame to threaten the US on the economic terrain 7. The ultra-imperialism that would allow capital to overcome its contradictions, as imagined by Kautsky, is surely not on the agenda. War maintains and expands its role in the current phase of the globalization of capital.
The globalization of capital does not involve an expansion of capitalism defined as an enlargement of the reproduction of value on a planetary scale. It leads rather to a growth of predatory operations on the part of capital, whose ‘property rights’ (over financial assets) allow it to collect financial incomes as well as to appropriate the processes of life itself. “There are not too many necessities of life produced, in proportion to the existing population. Quite the reverse. Too little is produced to decently and humanely satisfy the wants of the great mass.” 8
It is this contradiction that the globalization of capital has carried to an unequalled level, crushing most of the countries of Africa and, in the course of the 1990s, plunging the ‘emergent countries’ of Asia and Latin America into crisis. The state has always played a major role in this process of expropriation of the producers by capital, not only in the so-called phase of ‘primitive accumulation’ but also during the colonial conquests whose objective was to submit the peoples and territories of the planet to the domination of capital.
The violence of the state is more than ever necessary today, in polar opposition to the mystifications that associate the ‘markets’ and free trade with peace and democracy. The globalization of capital is accompanied by a process of commodification that could be defined as the extension of the area where capital can exercise its property rights. Such is indeed the prior condition to the existence of ‘markets’, whose objective and effect are, on the one hand, to increase the dependence of the producers while rendering them more ‘free’—that is, more constrained to work for capital—and on the other hand, to enslave new social groups, in particular in the dominated countries. These areas are not only geographical territories, but also new areas of private appropriation, like the biosphere (permits for the right to pollute), the life process (patents on seeds and so on), and increasingly rights of intellectual property whose incessant extension represents a serious threat to human liberty. All these objectives cannot be attained without the use of violence.
The US is at the centre of the globalization of capital. The strengthening of militarism observed in the 1990s is not an additional extra tacked on to an otherwise healthy economic functioning. The globalization of capital and militarism are two aspects of the “same organic phenomenon” as Rosa Luxemburg put it, and it is in the US that they are at their most interdependent. Political-military power was a determinant in the process that allowed the US to attract influxes of money capital seeking high ‘security’ in the 1990s, with an accelerated tempo after the Asian economic crisis of 1997.
Finally, the US economy was hit by recession in 2000 9. It is not possible to analyze here the mechanisms, but the important thing to understand is that, if the US is at the heart of the globalization of capital, it is also at the heart of its contradictions, much deeper than can be m e a s u red by the indicators used to characterize a recession. The rapid development of these contradictions has given the lie to those who thought that the US constituted an ‘island of prosperity’ in the ocean of global devastation pro d u c e d by the domination of financial capital (the ‘new economy’). The economic contradictions have been amplified and not reduced by the implementation of the budget programmes decided after September 11, 2001, for which the term ‘class war’ has been used 10. In this context, the ‘war without limits’ to which the Bush Administration has committed itself is in relation with the trajectory of capitalism over the past 20 years. This policy expresses the interests of a financial oligarchy, whose material bases rest on the pillage of natural resources(with oil, of course, in the first rank); and on the endless payment of the debt, even this endangers and threatens the very existence of the most vulnerable social classes and peoples. The control that the US and the other dominant countries of the ‘international community’ are in the p rocess of exerting—through forms of d i rect management, mandate or p rotectorate—has, still less than the colonial conquests of imperialism at the beginning of the 20th century, the p retension and the possibility of stimulating the economic development of the dominated countries. As shown by the tragic example of the African continent over the last 20 years, what is on the agenda now is the dismembering of the states of the ‘South’, which cannot resist the consequences of imperialist domination.
The social classes whose existence rests on a mode of social domination which privileges to this point the appropriation of the value created by the producers and encourages still more predation, can only have very short term concerns, without regard for the catastrophic social and environmental consequences for humanity. They need governments and state institutions that assure them the full enjoyment and security of their property rights. The more financial capital succeeds in extending its logic, the more the need for armed force grows.
Claude Serfati is a lecturer and researcher in economics at the university of Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines in France
1 Rosa Luxemburg, ‘The Accumulation of Capital’, Book 2, Chapter 32 ‘Militarism, Field of Action for Capital’. 2 Friedrich Engels, ‘Anti-Dьhring’, Part II: Political Economy, III. Theory of Force 3 Military superiority now rests on the efficiency of communications, the power of information tools, the precision of weapons guidance and so on. 4 The enlargement of the notion of ‘national security’to the defence of ‘globalization’was already present under Clinton and it has been developed by the Bush Administration. 5 Michael Hardt and Antonio Negri, 'Empire' (Cambridge MAand London: Harvard University Press, 2000) 6 See my contribution “Une bourgeoisie mondiale pour un capital financier mondialisй?” in Sйminaire d'Etudes Marxistes, ‘La bourgeoisie. classe dirigeante d'un nouveau capitalisme’, Syllepse, 2001 7 A significant part of US military programmes (including the anti-missiles defence system) are directly focused against China 8 K Marx, ‘Capital’, Volume 3, Part 3, Chapter 15, ‘Exposition of the Internal Contradictions of the Law’. 9 According to the figures of the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the rate of profitability of the capital of companies began to fall in 1997. 10 The title of the dossier in Business Week (January 20, 2003) on Bush’s proposed tax-cutting programme. The opposition: Hollywood, Los Angeles
War Crimes in the 21st Century
Pierre-Richard Prosper, Ambassador-at-Large for War Crimes Issues Remarks at Pepperdine University Malibu, California October 26, 2004
President Benton, Dean Starr, distinguished guests, members of the faculty and student body, thank you. It is a pleasure for me to be here, and I am grateful to Pepperdine for the opportunity to speak today. I want to thank today’s moderator, Professor Lee Boyd for organizing this panel, and Rajika Shah for helping to coordinate this event.
It is great to return home to Pepperdine, and to see so many friends, Vice Chancellor Ron Phillips, and many others who have been critical to my development as a professional. I am honored to be here with an impressive group of panelists. I look forward to a thoughtful and maybe lively discussion. I am delighted to be here at the new Drescher facilities. It is a wonderful place to talk about serious topics and to shape the public discourse.
Let me begin by saying that it is a joy to be back here at Pepperdine, a university that has greatly influenced my life. This university has a unique influence on those who come here through the fulfillment of its motto of "strengthening lives for purpose, service, and leadership."
I am pleased to take part in the inaugural series of "Lives in the Law." I think that this is an important series because it will allow us to examine the role that lawyers and all of us can play to help better society. For me, this series is an opportunity to share knowledge that will challenge you, the student, to pursue a cause greater than yourself. Our topic today is: "War Crimes in the 21st Century." As you can imagine, we have a lot to talk about. It is my hope that you will receive greater insights as I cover some of the more important areas and discuss what we are doing to address these problems.
Today, we find ourselves living in a time when humanity is under assault. There are cultures of hate that have killed millions of innocent men, women and children. Greed, lust for power, and ideological extremism are driving conflicts and are destroying fabrics of civilization. We only need to look to several hotspots around the world to see that there are those who would not hesitate to destroy entire peoples for demented goals. In taking on these challenges, steadfast leadership is required and vision is needed to overcome problems that may seem insurmountable. But unfortunately even when the cause is just, leadership in the world is often resisted because of politics or because the action needed is deemed unpopular or too difficult.
I believe that we are at a pivotal point in the history of the world. We are at a point where we must either confront these threats to humanity or concede. Act or turn a blind eye. As an administration, we recognize this responsibility. President Bush understands these historic times and has chosen to fulfill this responsibility. I am proud of the record of the United States and the steps this administration has taken to shape the justice landscape. We are committed to ending atrocities and pursuing accountability, and are leading the world in these efforts.
Accomplishments When asked to take this job over three years ago the world was a different place. Indicted war criminals moved more freely, states took their responsibility to hold perpetrators accountable less seriously, and tyrannical regimes oppressed and abused their citizens. In the beginning of 2001, several dozens of persons indicted by the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY) were at large including Slobodan Milosevic and the infamous "Vukovar Three." Over two dozen persons indicted by the International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda (ICTR) were fugitives and were fueling the conflict in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, where millions have lost their lives since 1998. Serbia, Croatia, and Bosnia were not pursuing domestic justice for the actions of their officials and citizens during the Balkans conflicts. In 2001, the ICTY and ICTR did not have a strategy to reach a successful completion and their budgets ballooned to a combined total of $798 million dollars – which has now exceeded $2 billion.
Sierra Leone was emerging from conflict. The idea of a Special Court for Sierra Leone – to detain and prosecute those who had brutalized the population through widespread rape, hacked off countless limbs of men, women and children, and perpetrated other abuses – was one only on paper. Saddam Hussein ignored the rule of law with brutal results, and Charles Taylor as President of Liberia continued to destabilize the West African region. Terrorists, al Qaida, moved freely. In Afghanistan, the Taliban regime terrorized its population, killed civilians, subjected women to second or third class status, and sponsored terrorists.
Today we have a dramatically different and better picture due to our leadership. Because of U. S. leadership and policies, 52 ICTY indictees, including former president Slobodan Milosevic and the infamous "Vukovar Three," have gone to The Hague in the past 3Ѕ years – more than any other period. Twenty-one leaders of the Rwanda genocide, including the former army Chief-of-Staff, have been apprehended and transferred to the ICTR, bringing the total number of indictees rendered to both tribunals to a record 73. In the Balkans, domestic trials of war criminals are now taking place with international support and backing. The two ad hoc tribunals are more efficient, have controlled their budgets, have increased the pace of their work, and now have completion strategies with the aim of ending initial trials by 2008 and all appeals by 2010.
The Special Court for Sierra Leone, is now in existence and has started trials that will help the population heal. In Liberia, U. S. troops were deployed. Working with the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), we have brought peace. Charles Taylor is out of power, faces a war crimes indictment before the Special Court, and we are working to bring him to justice soon. The regime of Saddam Hussein is no more, a point I will discuss later. And 75% of known al Qaida leadership has been brought to justice.
In Afghanistan the regime of the Taliban has fallen. And the first direct presidential election in Afghanistan's history was held on October 9, where 18 presidential candidates, including one female candidate, ran. There, more than 10 million Afghans registered to vote. Forty-one percent of registered voters were women. The dramatic nature of this can be seen in a picture I saw of a woman covered by a burkha dropping her ballot into the box. The only part of her that was visible were her hands and her vote. Others traveled far, waded through icy rivers, stood in long lines at polling stations, and overcame fears of attacks. Democracy has arrived in Afghanistan and its citizens have tasted freedom.
While throughout the world more work needs to be done, we have begun to change the course of events for the better. The United States has demonstrated leadership even when difficult and even when unpopular. Allow me at this time to focus on three areas which are current and important: Sudan, Iraq, and the war on terror.
Sudan Sudan has long been a problem state. It has been engulfed in a brutal North-South civil war since 1983, and for years, the Government of Sudan engaged in a policy to destroy the predominately Christian and animist south. Death and destruction reached staggering proportions. Credible estimates from human rights organizations suggest that two million people have perished, four million have been internally displaced, and nearly 400,000 have been forced to live in neighboring countries as refugees. While there is improvement in the North-South conflict, with a peace agreement reached on June 5, there continues to be despair.
Darfur Atrocities Within the last year the Government of Sudan has repeated its pattern of atrocities that we have seen in the North-South conflict in the western region of Darfur. Sudan and its proxies, the Arab militias known as the Jingaweit, have carried out a scorched-earth policy toward the African civilian population. The Jingaweit and Sudanese military forces have murdered, raped and assaulted non-Arab individuals. They have pillaged and destroyed villages, foodstuffs, and other means of survival. The government has obstructed needed humanitarian aid and food from reaching affected populations, thereby leading to further deaths and suffering. And despite having been put on notice multiple times, they have not stopped the violence.
Last week the United Nations issued a report stating that 70,000 people have died in Darfur in the last year. In addition, 1.7 million have been displaced or are refugees and hundreds of thousands more have been affected.
U. S. Assistance and Efforts to Raise Awareness Many in the international community were reluctant to get involved or recognize the true magnitude of the atrocities. We decided to engage last year – decided to lead. Early this year, Secretary Powell sent a team into Sudan to begin to deal with the crisis. We helped broker a ceasefire between the Government of Sudan and the rebels, which unfortunately did not hold. But talks continue.
In April, President Bush publicly condemned Sudan – he was the first to do so – and urged the international community to intensify efforts to end the violence. We increased our flow of aid, now totaling $211 million. We went to the UN Security Council and asked for a resolution on Sudan – one that would be firm. We were able to obtain one on July 30, 13-0 with 2 abstentions, which demanded that Sudan disarm the Jingaweit militia, bring them to justice and open up the humanitarian corridor. It additionally warns that the Security Council will take further actions and measures as necessary.
We also launched an investigation as to whether genocide was occurring. In June, I testified before the Congress that there were indicators of genocide. My conclusions were based in good part on the work of a Pepperdine University School of Law student, Jon Derby. In July, our investigative team visited refugee camps to interview victims and survivors. As a result of their work, we publicly concluded that genocide has been committed, and may still be occurring, in Darfur and that the Government of Sudan and the Jingaweit bear responsibility. We were the first country to do so. We then returned to the Security Council and called for and got a UN investigation into the matter as specified by the Genocide Convention. We hope the UN team will be deployed soon.
When I was in Rwanda in April on the occasion of the 10th anniversary of the Rwandan genocide, as part of the commemoration, African heads of state stated their desire to see Africans take more of a leadership role in responding to genocide on the African continent. We encourage this. In the case of Sudan, we are leading by building a coalition around the African Union (AU) so that they can help end the atrocities and bring peace. To ensure that the AU had the mandate to secure Darfur we returned to the Security Council and gave them the authority to act.
We are now working with other international partners, including Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, and the European Union to support the African Union. We are providing $20.5 million to help fund the AU mission. Nigerian and Rwandan troops are going to Sudan and we are scheduled to airlift troops hopefully this week. This mission is vital to restoring security so that the dislocated, starving, hunted people can avail themselves of the humanitarian aid.
We are continuing to press the Government of Sudan and we continue to monitor its actions. While we are pleased that Sudan and the rebels have agreed on a protocol to facilitate delivery of much-needed humanitarian assistance and have engaged in discussions on security issues, more is needed.
Iraq In Iraq, we press for progress as well. We are fighting for humanity and the rule of law. We are supporting the Iraqi people in their work to prosecute Saddam Hussein and his regime for war crimes, crimes against humanity and possibly genocide because President Bush saw that the Iraqi people were crying for justice. They want to do this themselves and feel that they have something to prove. America’s task in Iraq, as the President has said: "is not only to defeat an enemy; it is to give strength to a friend … that serves its people and fights on their behalf."
Last year I visited Halabja, the site of one of the worst chemical weapons attacks where between 3,500 and 5,000 people were killed. I met people who are still suffering today from the chemical ingestion and burns that they received over fifteen years ago. I heard their stories. I saw how they continue to be inflicted with lung diseases and other illnesses. They cried before me, literally, for justice. For some, it is their only hope. For others it is their salvation – a cure. I do not know if the people I saw are still alive, but I do know that they do not want to die without knowing that the truth of the past will be fully revealed and that evil will be called by its given name.
Just two weeks ago, on October 7, we worked with the Iraqis to exhume 192 bodies from a mass grave that potentially has up to several thousand more. Among the victims was a woman holding a baby in a blanket. The infant had a bullet wound to the back of the head, the mother to the face. Children ages 1-12 were found, all with bullet holes in the back of their skulls. Some in the grave had their hands tied behind their backs. Toys, shoes, cooking supplies, food, women’s bags, jewelry, and other household items were also discovered in the graves leaving the unmistakable impression that the victims were forced to march out of their homes into the desert not knowing their fate.
Saddam Hussein and his regime ruled with terror and brutality. The regime institutionalized violence, torture, rape, murder, and mass extermination. They gassed and killed up to 100,000 Kurds in 1988. They brutally oppressed, tortured, and killed over 1,000 Kuwaitis during the Iraqi invasion and occupation of Kuwait and displaced 1.5 million people there.
Saddam’s regime brutally attacked and killed up to 60,000 Shi’a Muslim in southern Iraq and drained the southern marshes – that supported their livelihood – dry. Saddam’s regime also committed an untold number of atrocities during the war with Iran. Saddam’s son, Uday, is reported to have raped and murdered young women, some of whom it is said were later fed to his lions. It is also reported that Uday would torture Iraqi soccer players after a poor performance. And these are the crimes that we know of.
Human Rights Watch estimates that as many as 290,000 Iraqis disappeared at the hands of the Iraqi government. These people have not been found, but over 270 mass graves – many containing thousands of bodies each – have been discovered or reported. Ladies and Gentlemen, Saddam was a genuine threat, a madman, and a menace to civilization. When I was in Iraq last, a month ago, I went to the detention facilities and saw the core leaders of the Saddam Hussein regime. I looked them in the eyes. They were sick, nasty, evil men who would take a human life in a minute. So when you consider the depth of the inhumanity, the world and the future of the world are better, safer, and more humane without Saddam Hussein. R emoving him was the right thing to do.
Now, in the current season, there is a healthy debate as to the merits of going into Iraq. While many countries have supported us, we saw others in the international community who did not. But as you assess the opposition, I recommend you read the Duelfer Report, prepared by the Iraqi Survey Group, which sheds light on Saddam’s intentions regarding weapons of mass destruction. It also discusses how Saddam implemented a strategy aimed at manipulating and dividing the United Nations Security Council members by effectively buying off people through the oil for food program.
The report names dozens of individuals and firms including prominent French and Russian ones as well as the former chief of the UN oil-for-food program, who according to the report repeatedly received and exploited oil vouchers from Iraq – vouchers that allowed the recipients to buy oil from Iraq and resell it at a profit totaling $1.78 billion in contracts to the French companies. And a $12 billion deal for Russian companies had been planned.
Iraq has a long legal tradition that dates back to the time of the Code of Hammurabi (the first king of the Babylonian Empire who ruled from 1792 to 1750 BC). Our job is to help them get it back. The Iraqi Governing Council established the Iraqi Special Tribunal which will try Saddam and others. The statute of the tribunal calls for international advisers and monitors to bolster the effort. Last week I attended a training conference in London for judges of the Iraqi Special Tribunal. In attendance were 41 jurists, judges and lawyers who are dedicated to move forward towards impartial justice. Our purpose was to help inform them of international law, standards and procedures that they had been deprived of and help them create a society where justice triumphs.
What was clear to me during this conference is that the Iraqis have a thirst for justice and want to administer it themselves. We believe the international practice should be to support sovereign states seeking justice domestically when it is feasible, so that the society takes ownership over the process and feels a part of the effort.
We asked the UN international tribunal in The Hague to help with the training in London. Kofi Annan said no, claiming that it is doubtful the process will meet international standards. The purpose of the conference itself was to help raise the standards. Additionally, I do not know how the UN could form such an opinion having never met with the Iraqis assigned to this court. He also said that it was not desirable for the UN to assist a court that could administer the death penalty, which the Iraqi process could. Yet the UN has assisted Rwanda and Afghanistan in their justice efforts, and both have the death penalty. With or without them, I am confident that justice will be properly and credibly served.
I am hopeful for the future of Iraq. The Iraqi Government is now running the day-to-day operations of its country. Nearly 2,500 schools have been renovated; 32,000 secondary school teachers have been trained. Iraq has a free press with over 100 newspapers and numerous broadcast outlets. NATO will provide training to Iraqi security forces. Like Afghanistan, Iraq will have historic elections in January.
Iraq also now has a stable currency, the value of which has risen 25 percent. Donor conferences are bringing in needed funds, and fifty-five countries participated in the one that just occurred two weeks ago in Tokyo. While terrorists, foreign fighters from neighboring countries, attack and plot in the Sunni triangle with the objective of preventing progress, they will be defeated. Their goal is to stop the spread of democracy, the freeing of a people, because their biggest fear is that success in Iraq is the start of reform elsewhere.
War on Terror The last issue I want to raise is the war on terror. There has been much discussion on how best to deal with terror. Do we respond to terrorism as a law enforcement matter or a military one?
The war on terror is not a metaphorical war. A private network is engaged in catastrophic levels of violence that threaten humanity and democracy, and its sole objective is to destroy human life. These are not ordinary crimes, and the perpetrators are not common criminals. Therefore we must break way from our pre-9/11 way of thinking and recognize that this is an unconventional yet actual war.
For over a decade, Bin Laden and his co-conspirators issued statements calling upon Muslims everywhere "to kill U. S. citizens – civilian or military – and their allies everywhere" and calling their offensive a "war." They actively launched attacks against the United States that have killed thousands.
In 1993, Al Qaida bombed the World Trade Center and attacked U. S. service members in Somalia. They killed and injured hundreds of others in the bombing of our embassies in Nairobi, Kenya and Dar es Salaam, Tanzania in 1998. They bombed the U. S.S. Cole in 2000. And there have been other attacks or attempted attacks that I have not listed. Then of course there was the four-pronged, coordinated attacks of September 11.
I can tell you that being in Washington, having been evacuated, having had to work out of an undisclosed location, sitting down at the drawing board to determine what our response would be, it felt like a war. These attacks I described – though periodic – have been sustained in their strategic sense. They were not sporadic acts of violence. The international reaction understood this. NATO, the Organization of American States, Australia and New Zealand invoked their respective mutual defense provisions. UN Security Council Resolutions recognized our right to self-defense. And, our Congress authorized the use of force.
Ladies and Gentlemen, this war continues. Since 9/11 we can catalogue at least 17 major attacks committed by al Qaida against the international community that have resulted in at least 3,313 persons being injured or killed. These attacks span the globe in places like Pakistan, Tunisia, Philippines, Yemen, Spain, Indonesia, Jordan, Russia, Kenya, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and elsewhere. And this figure does not include the countless innocent civilians killed by these terrorist groups in Afghanistan and Iraq.
During the war on terror we have detained people whom we view as enemy combatants. Currently there are 556 detainees at Guantanamo Bay from 38 different countries. We believe that the laws of war permit the United States to detain enemy combatants for the duration of hostilities, as has been done in all wars. Our foremost objective is to ensure that the enemy combatants who pose an ongoing threat are not released only to strike again.
In the end these detainees will be prosecuted by the United States, returned to their own country for prosecution or detention, or released if they no longer pose a threat. To date, 202 detainees have already been transferred out of Guantanamo to about 15 different countries. Some were sent back for investigation and prosecution and others were outright released. Some of those released from Guantanamo have returned to battle in Pakistan and Afghanistan.
The question of whether we are correctly interpreting the law is now before the courts. The courts will have to reconcile competing views. We are at a moment in history where we are facing issues of first impression. Time and history will judge our efforts.
I would like to close with a message to the students who are here today. Fifteen years ago I was where you are now. At that time, I thought the problems of the world were too great for me, the individual, to make a difference. I assumed that my ability to contribute was minute.
I had no idea that I would go on to literally make history. I did not know that the work that I would do would help entire societies achieve peace, come to terms with their past, and save lives. If you told me that I would sit at the table with the President of the United States, the Secretary of State and the National Security Advisor, and they would say, "Pierre, what do you think?" I would have called it a nice dream.
The lesson of my experiences is that the individual can make a difference. The lesson is that if you want to contribute you can. While to do so may require leading, taking risks, leaving your comfort zone and doing what may be difficult or unpopular, it may be what is required for the betterment of society and for the sake of humanity. So I encourage you – urge you – to strengthen your lives for purpose, for service, and for leadership in the world.
21st Century Regionalism: Filling The Gap Between 21st Century Trade And 20th Century Trade Rules
"The TPP has moved beyond removal of WTO tariff barriers to trade, and allows for discrimination between states and contains different tariff schedules, exclusions, implementation periods, rules of origin, and customs procedures (Maur & Chauffour, 2011). These WTO-plus provisions effectively extend the control of investors 'behind-the border' to shape governments' policy, the movement of capital, intellectual property rights beyond the Trade Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights agreement, and investment liberalization (Baldwin, 2011). "
Article: Shaping the discourse: What has the food industry been lobbying for in the Trans Pacific Partnership trade agreement and what are the implications for dietary health?
[Show abstract] [Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: The Trans Pacific Partnership agreement (TPP), emblematic of the new generation of free trade agreements, is a regional agreement among 12 Pacific Rim countries. This paper reports on a study into how the food industry has framed issues in an effort to influence the TPP. We undertook a thematic analysis of the issues raised in publicly available submissions by the food industry to the trade negotiating bodies of four TPP countries: Australia, New Zealand, Canada and the United States of America (USA). The food industry is an active player in trade negotiations, mainly through food industry associations and other business associations. The submissions assumed that trade liberalization would result in more exports and investment, as well as raise living standards and benefit the economy and country. There was little mention of food as anything other than a commodity, focusing on types and quantities of food traded and what this meant for revenue generation, with no connection to nutritional health. The TPP could affect food systems and population health in ways that are not readily apparent to governments, policy makers or the public. The written submissions mechanism is one way in which the food industry could have shaped the agreement by framing the issues, influencing the content and direction of the TPP negotiations and agreement itself. If coherence between trade and health goals is to be strengthened, the public health community needs to engage with industry arguments and build a strong counter-argument that gives more prominence to health concerns.
No preview · Article · Feb 2016 · Critical Public Health
Available from: kjis. org
"Regional changes are likely driven to a significant degree by changes in China's preferences for better investment protections, including national treatment (Shan, Gallagherof the political economy of investment that would also contribute to an understanding of the pattern of treaties and their contents in Asia. One avenue for exploration would be how the dense linkages between trade, investment and services differ in Asia compared to other parts of the world (Baldwin 2011), creating incentives to negotiate legal protections but also to settle disputes quickly and quietly. A related approach would be to compare investments by sector to shed light on how specific kinds of investments affect time horizons and, in turn, influence how nascent disputes are settled. "
Article: East Asia, Investment, and International Law: Distinctive or Convergent?
Preview · Article · Dec 2015
Available from: Maria V. Sokolova
"In the previous section we have explained the intuition that outlines the main reasoning for why having an RTA is a cutoff for J 1 and J 2. RTA represents a greater integration of the economies and higher trade dependency (Frankel et al. 1996; Baldwin, 2011a; Frankel & Wei, 1998a; Moser & Rose, 2014) and therefore is a source for the different effect of undervaluation on economic growth. When a competitive depreciation is directed at the regional trade agreement partners, the decrease in the relative price of the exports imay be matched by the increase in relative price of imports from the RTA-partners. "
Conference Paper: Exchange Rates and Economic Growth: Re-Evaluation of Undervaluation
[Show abstract] [Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: We show that the regional trade integration through a Regional Trade Agreement (RTA) alters the transmission of a country's monetary policy towards its trading partners and results in a different impact on the country's economic growth. Using data dating back to 1965 for over 100 countries, we investigate the relationship between the economic growth of a country and its price competitiveness vis-` a-vis its RTA and non-RTA partners. First, we show that the increase in the growth rate through an underval-uation can be mostly attributed to the improvement through the non-RTA trading partners. We provide both theoretical and empirical evidence that the working channel is greater trade dependency between RTA members-along with the increase in trade flows, their exports become more dependent on imports from each other. Higher trade dependency leads to a lower (or negative) effect of competitive depreciation on growth, as the relative price gain on exports is partially (or fully) offset by the relative price loss on imports. Second, contrary to the conventional wisdom that developing countries grow more through an undervaluation, we find that this may not hold true depending on the composition of the trade flows vis-` a-vis its RTA and non-RTA trading partners. An advanced economy may grow more through an undervaluation that is affecting the non-RTA trading partners more. This finding gives a new tool to analyse the efficacy and transmission of monetary policy in the context of the changing global trade patterns.
Full-text · Conference Paper · Sep 2015
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CTEI Working Paper 21st Century Regionalism: Filling the gap between 21st century trade and 20th century trade rulesa Richard Baldwinb
Biography Richard Baldwin is Professor of International Economics at the Graduate Institute, Geneva since 1991, Policy Director of CEPR since 2006, Editor-in-Chief of Vox since he founded it in June 2007, and an elected Member of the Council of the European Economic Association. He was a Senior Staff Economist for the President's Council of Economic Advisors in the Bush Administration (1990-1991) following Uruguay Round, NAFTA and EAI negotiations as well as numerous US-Japan trade issues including the SII talks and the Semiconductor Agreement renewal. He was Co - managing Editor of the journal Economic Policy from 2000 to 2005, and Programme Director of CEPR’s International Trade programme from 1991 to 2001.
a The paper was first presented at the WTO’s “Workshop on PTAs and the WTO: A new era” held at the WTO 4 November 2010; http://www. wto. org/english/res_e/reser_e/wkshop_nov10_e/wkshop_nov10_e. htm. b Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies, Geneva.
CTEI PAPERS CTEI-2010-31
Centre for Trade and Economic Integration (CTEI) The Centre for Trade and Economic Integration fosters world-class multidisciplinary scholarship aimed at developing solutions to problems facing the international trade system and economic integration more generally. It works in association with public sector and private sector actors, giving special prominence to Geneva-based International Organisations such as the WTO and UNCTAD. The Centre also bridges gaps between the scholarly and policymaking communities through outreach and training activities in Geneva. www. graduateinstitute. ch/ctei
21st Century Regionalism: Filling the gap between 21st century trade and 20th century trade rules Richard Baldwin Graduate Institute, Geneva November 2010; this version April 20111 Abstract This paper weaves several sets of facts into an argument that: 1) today’s trade is radically more complex, involving a “trade-investment-service nexus”, 2) this 21st century trade demanded deeper disciplines which were supplied by “21st century regionalism” while the WTO was otherwise occupied, and 3) 21st century regionalism has quite different implications for the world trading system than the traditional thinking suggests. The paper also argues that the traditional thinking (building-stumbling-block and Vinerian economics) is not up to the job of analysing 21st century regionalism. An alternative framework is not provided, but elements a new approach should encompass are discussed. 1. INTRODUCTION The last time multilateral trade rules were updated, Bill Clinton was in his first term of office, data was shared by airmailing 1.4 megabyte HD floppy disks (few people had email), cellphones looked like bricks and calling costs were measured in dollars per minute. Trade mostly meant selling goods made in a factory in one nation to a customer in another. Simple trade needed simple rules – a fact reflected in both multilateral and regional trade agreements. Today‟s trade is radically more complex. The ICT revolution fostered an internationalisation of supply chains, and this in turned created the “trade-investment-service nexus” at the heart of so much of today‟s international commerce. Complex trade needs complex rules. As the WTO was otherwise occupied, the incipient governance gap was filled by uncoordinated developments elsewhere – primarily in deep regional trade agreements, bilateral investment treaties, and autonomous reforms in emerging economies. The resulting package of deeper disciplines – what could be called “21st century regionalism” – requires new thinking. This paper marshals several sets of facts into an argument that: Today regionalism is qualitatively different to that of the 1990s; The traditional building-stumbling-block approach and Vinerian economics on which it is premised are not up to the job of analysing this new regionalism; and 21st century regionalism has quite different ramifications for the world trading system than 20th century regionalism did.
1 The paper was first presented at the WTO‟s “Workshop on PTAs and the WTO: A new era” held at the WTO 4 November 2010; http://www. wto. org/english/res_e/reser_e/wkshop_nov10_e/wkshop_nov10_e. htm. My thanks to comments from the participants as well as seminar participants at Keio University and RIETI in Tokyo, Georgetown University, the Indian Institute for Foreign Trade in Delhi, and the Taiwan WTO Center (Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research), and comments from Theresa Carpenter, Simon Evenett, Patrick Low, Ted Moran, and Rod Ludema. Special thanks to Alen Mulabdic, Yose Damuri, Andy Lendle for help with data analysis.
The facts are not new, having been documented by many observers. The aim of the paper is to weave them together into an argument that points to a new way of thinking about regionalism – specifically, its economic implications, its political economy determinants, and its impact on the world trade system and the WTO. In a nutshell, 21st century regionalism is not primarily about preferential market access as was the case for 20th century regionalism; it is about disciplines that underpin the trade - investment-service nexus. This means that 21st century regionalism is driven by a different set of political economy forces; the basic bargain is “foreign factories for domestic reforms” – not “exchange of market access”. As 21st century regionalism is largely about regulation rather than tariffs, regulatory economics is needed rather than Vinerian tax economics. Finally, 21st century regionalism is a serious threat to the WTO‟s centrality in global trade governance, but not for the reason suggested by the old building-stumbling-block thinking. 21st century regionalism is a threat to the WTO‟s role as a rule writer, not as a tariff cutter. Plan of the paper The next section discusses the complexity of 21st century commerce, how it arose and why. The subsequent section, Section 3, discusses how this more complex trade created a demand for more complex disciplines and how 21st century regionalism met these demands. Having laid out the problem, Section 4 argues that a new analytic framework is needed to think about 21st century regionalism. Section 5 discusses features the new framework should display. Section 6 considers the implication for the world trading system and presents some concluding remarks. 2. EMERGENCE OF 21 ST CENTURY TRADE Today‟s international commerce comprises complex, two-way flows of goods, services, people, ideas, and investments in physical, human and knowledge capital – in addition to trade in raw materials and final goods. There is nothing new about this from a qualitative sense. It has been going on for decades. The 1957 Treaty of Rome and the 1965 US-Canada Auto Pact, for example, were designed to encourage just such exchanges. The novelty of 21st trade lies in the quantitative dimension. To illustrate what is really new, it is useful to put 21st century trade into the broad context of globalisation. 2.1. Globalisation as two unbundlings When sailing ships and horse carts were state-of-the-art transportation, only items with very high value-to-weight ratios could be profitability shipped over anything but the shortest distances. As a result, each village made most of what it consumed; production and consumption were geographically bundled. Steam power changed this (O‟Rourke and Williamson 1999, Chapter 3). Railroads and steamships radically lowered transport costs, so production and consumption could be unbundled geographically. Once unbundling was feasible, scale economies and comparative advantage made it inevitable. This was globalisation‟s “first unbundling” although it occurred in two waves punctuated by world wars and the Great Depression.2
2 For estimates of trade flows back to 1870, see David, Meissner, and Novy (2011). For a detailed account of the two waves of the first unbundling, see Baldwin and Martin (1999).
Global unbundling with local clustering Globalisation‟s first unbundling generated a paradox. As production dispersed internationally, it clustered locally (into factories and industrial districts). Better transportation favoured scale economies that typically involved complex manufacturing processes. This new complexity fostered local clustering. For example, consider a stylised production process with several production bays. Coordination involves a continuous, two - way flow among the bays of good, people, ideas, and investment in machines, training and technology. The two-way flows never cease as continuous efforts to heighten productivity keep the process in flux. Production clustered locally because proximity lowered the cost of the two-way flows. A new distance-linked cost became important – what might be called “coordination glue”. ICT revolution: 2nd unbundling’s equivalent of the steam revolution Some of this coordination glue is related to communication. As telecommunications became cheaper and surer from the mid-1980s, the coordination glue began to weaken. The price of telephone calls plummeted, faxes became standard, cellular phone usage exploded, and the telecommunication network became denser, more reliable and cheaper. Two other trends interacted with cheaper communication costs – the spectacular fall in the price of computing power (Moore‟s Law) and the equally spectacular rise in fibre optic transmission rates (Gilder‟s Law). Long-distance information sharing was revolutionised as these developments in telecoms were complemented by the rise of the internet – first email and then web-based platforms.
Figure 1: Growth of global internet hosts and phone lines, 1975 – 2011.
The telecom and internet revolutions triggered a suite of information-management innovations that made it easier, cheaper, faster, and safer to coordinate complex activities at distance. Email, editable files (*.xls, *.doc, etc), and more specialised web-based coordination software packages revolutionised peoples‟ ability to manage multifaceted procedures across great distances. Working methods and product designs also shifted to make production more modular and thus easier to coordinate at distance. Stages of production that previously had to be performed in close proximity – within walking distance to facilitate face-to-face coordinate of innumerable small glitches – could now be dispersed without an 1995 1985 0 5 10 15 20 25 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 1975 19761977 1978 1979 1980 19811982 1983 19841985 1986 19871988 1989 19901991 1992 19931994 1995 1996 1997 1998 19992000 2001 2002 20032004 2005 2006 2007 20082009 2010 2011 Source: WDI for phone and internet users; www. isc. org for internet hosts Mobile and fixed-line telephone subscribers per employee Mobile and fixed-line telephone subscribers (millions) Internet users (millions) Log number of internet hosts
enormous drop in efficiency or timeliness. Collectively, this is known as the information and communication technology (ICT) revolution. Figure 1, which displays several ICT, indicators, shows that there was an inflection point in the growth of internet hosts in 1985 and in telephone subscribers in 1995. This suggests that the coordination glue began to weaken sometime between 1985 and 1995. As far as trade is concerned, the partial melting of the coordination glue meant that some production stages that previously had to be within walking distance could now be dispersed internationally. Once ICT made dispersion of production stages feasible, scale economies and comparative advantage made it inevitable. This is globalisation‟s “second unbundling” – the spatial unbundling of productions stages previously clustered in factories and offices.3 This radically changed the nature of international commerce giving rise to what might be called the trade-investment-service nexus. 2.2. The trade-investment-services nexus: 21th century trade The 2nd unbundling did not end the need to coordinate production stages – it internationalised it. International commerce became more complex. The result might be called 21st century trade. The heart of 21st century trade is an intertwining of: 1) trade in goods, 2) international investment in production facilities, training, technology and long-term business relationships, and 3) the use of infrastructure services to coordinate the dispersed production, especially services such as telecoms, internet, express parcel delivery, air cargo, trade-related finance, customs clearance services, etc. This could be called the trade-investment-services nexus.
Figure 2: Schematic illustration of 20th and 21st century trade
The differences between 20th and 21st century trade are illustrated schematically in Figure 2. The top panel illustrates 20th century trade; trade is dominated by goods made in factories in one nation and sold to customers in another. There are complex two-way flows of goods, people, and ideas (the double-headed arrows) but primarily within factories. The lower panel
3 See Baldwin (2006a) for the original presentation of globalisation as two unbundlings and policy implications for European social welfare states. Bay B Bay A Bay C Bay B Bay A Bay C Bay B Bay A Bay C 1) Two-way flows of goods, ideas, technology, capital, and technicians. 2) Investment and application of technical, managerial and market know-how abroad. Connecting factory & doing business abroad: The “trade-investment-services nexus”
WTO and which are more appropriately dealt with in RTAs and/or national legislation. Again, this is an open question for trade scholars. One hint in this direction is the near universality of certain provisions. Data from the WTO‟s World Trade Report suggests that there are four core disciplines in deep RTAs that go beyond WTO agreements. These are competition policy (covered by 47% of all agreements in the WTO database), movement of capital (39%), intellectual property rights not in the TRIPs Agreement (37%), and investment not covered by GATT 1994 (31%). More modest versions of multilateralising the deeper disciplines can also be envisioned. The WTO could develop some basic guidelines for deeper provisions in RTAs, akin to those on tariffs and services in the GATT and GATS. For example, the GATS provides a few basic guidelines for Services FTAs – e. g. FTAs should provide substantial sectoral coverage, substantially eliminate discrimination in national treatment in the affected sectors, and raise no barriers against third nations. Even these very basic guidelines are completely absent when it comes to deeper provisions like competition policy, rights of establishment, FDI-linked capital flows, etc. Since many of the deep RTAs are aimed at improving the investment climate rather than providing discriminatory market access, many of the deep RTA provisions already respect rules like those for Services FTAs. Perhaps then it might not be too difficult to codify a set of guidelines in a WTO agreement, or plurilateral. 6.3. Concluding remarks The rise of 21st century regionalism is not yet a disaster for the world trade system. It has kept trade liberalisation and trade booming despite the WTO‟s slow progress. But the present course of events seems certain to undermine the WTO‟s centricity – RTAs will take over as the main loci of global trade governance. Over the past ten years, WTO members have “voted with their feet” for the RTA option. Without a reform that brings existing RTA disciplines under the WTO‟s aegis and makes it easier to develop new disciplines inside the WTO system, the RTA trend will continue, further eroding WTO centricity and possibly taking it beyond the tipping point where nations ignore WTO rules since everyone else does.35 This scenario runs the risk that global trade governance drifts back towards a 19th century Great Powers world. In the best of cases, the WTO would continue to thrive as the institution that underpins 20th century trade flows. The Marrakesh agreements would form a „first pillar‟ of a multi-pillar trade governance system. All the new issues would be addressed outside the WTO in a setting where power asymmetries are far less constrained. This is what has happened with the BITs – they established a parallel system of disciplines without substantially undermining the WTO‟s authority on Marrakesh disciplines. But this is not the only scenario. It is also possible that the WTO‟s inability to update its rules gradually undermines the authority of the Dispute Settlement Mechanism. If the RTAs and their power asymmetries take over, there is a risk that the GATT/WTO would go down in future history books as a 70-year experiment where world trade was rules - based instead of power-based. It would, at least for a few more years, be a world where the world‟s rich nations write the new rules-of-the-road in settings marked by vast power asymmetries. This trend should worry all world leaders. In the first half of the 19th century, attempts by incumbent Great Powers to impose rules on emerging powers smoothed the path to humanity‟s greatest follies – the two world wars.
35 See more detailed arguments on this point see Baldwin (2008) and Baldwin and Carpenter (2009).
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In Afghanistan, new technologies for doing business in the 21th century
The Enterprise System is handed over to Hashim Naeem Tailoring Company and its employees, Parwan, Afghanistan Sail Food Production Company is one of the largest food manufacturing factory in Nangarhar Province, Afghanistan. Despite countless hours spent on manual bookkeeping, its owner always complained about errors when reporting profits and losses on the company’s balance sheets.
At the close of each monthly accounting period, the company was always late in submitting profit and loss statements to the Provincial Department of Finance. Similarly, there were many inefficiencies in production and raw material tracking due to the absence of a proper inventory control system.
The scarcity of information technology integration within business operations has limited the development of Sail Food Production and many other Afghan small and medium enterprises (SME) as they are trying to remain competitive in a global business environment. How could this be improved?
The e-SME initiative: A technology solution to boost business growth
As part of the Afghanistan Rural Enterprise Development Program (AREDP), the Ministry of Rural Rehabilitation and Development piloted E-SME, an Enterprise System software package designed to help businesses improve their accounting, payroll, inventory control, and sales workflows. AREDP provided the Enterprise Systems to 10 SMES across five provinces (Nangarhar, Parwan, Balkh, Bamyan, and Herat) and those SMEs have already reported improvement in the following areas:
E-invoicing has eliminated the need for manual inputs of invoices and greatly enhanced cost control and reduced transaction and overhead costs.
The new transaction recording system has generated sound financial statements. As a result, businesses now have access to larger loans from commercial banks.
The system’s tax module has helped prevent duplication of efforts and streamlined tax reporting and payment to the government.
Mr. Ajab Shah, Sail Food Production Company’s Accounting Manager has been trained extensively on the new Enterprise System that was recently launched in the company. Screen shot of the Enterprise System developed for Sail Food Processing Company, Nangarhar, Afghanistan “Previously, I had difficulties keeping records of all the stock items and financial transactions,” he reports. “We were spending a lot of resources and time collecting and recording data and our reports had errors. Thanks to AREDP, our financial recording and reporting system has now significantly improved and with this system, I am able to measure the level of productivity and can generate various reports on time with zero errors.”
Mr. Ahmad Shah, another beneficiary who runs the Hashim Naeem Tailoring Company in Parwan said: “We did not have proper records of all our clients, orders and workers in order to calculate the charges of each individual worker based on the number of orders he/she worked, but now with the new Enterprise System, we have a proper list of clients, contractors, stock and workers detail and we can track down orders from our clients and can now respond their needs on time.”
Vietnam 2001: Entering the 21st Century
The Vietnam Development Report 2001, entitled "Vietnam 2010: Entering the 21st Century", is a three-volume set consisting of an Overview and two parts. Part I, entitled Pillars of Development provides a commentary on the emerging draft Ten Year Socio-Economic Development Strategy for 2001-2010. Part II, entitled Partnerships for Development, addresses the theme of stronger partnerships to help Vietnam attain its vision and implement its strategy.
With the kind permission of the Asian Development Bank (ADB), the full text of the Overview is reproduced below. For the full texts of Parts I and II, please refer to the ADB's Home Page: adb. org
Part I: Pillars of Development
Part II: Partnerships for Development
Overview Vietnam's Socio-Economic Development Strategy for the first decade of the 21st Century is currently under preparation. The Strategy envisages a Vietnam that has:
An economy with sustainable and rapid development;
Aspires to be a just and stable society with a high quality of life for all of its people;
Maintains the best of Vietnamese culture and traditions;
Aims to become a socialist market economy, fully integrated into the global economy, and competitive internationally, and;
Intends to have the characteristics of an industrialized and knowledge-based society within 20 years.
This vision is articulated using specific targets. Among the quality of life targets for 2010 are the following:
Eradication of hunger and hard-core poverty;
Universalization of lower secondary education for all;
Malnutrition rate of children to be reduced from a third to 15-20 percent;
Life expectancy to increase from 68 to 70-71 years;
Access to clean water in urban areas to rise from 65 percent to 90 percent, and;
Forest coverage to rise from 28 percent to 43 percent.
These are to be attained through rapid growth and a change in the structure of the economy to a more modern, industrial and urban one that can create better-paying jobs: a doubling of GDP by 2010 to be attained through economic growth of over 7 percent per annum; investment to be increased to 30 percent of GDP; exports to grow at more than twice the rate of GDP; the share of agriculture in GDP to decline from 25 percent to 16-17 percent; industry to increase from 35 percent to 40-41 percent; services to increase from 40 percent to 42-43 percent; the share of rural employment to decline from about two-thirds to half; and the share of urban population to increase from a quarter to a third.
These are ambitious goals, but appropriate. While the progress achieved over the past decade has been impressive by almost any standards, Vietnam remains a very poor country whose huge development potential is as yet largely untapped. While the share of the population in poverty has been cut in half over the past decade, some 30 million people, or around 37 percent of the population, are estimated to live in poverty.
Currently, around 25 million people accounting for 60 percent of the labor force are unemployed or underemployed. And each year in the coming decade, over 1 million people will be added to the workforce.
This report explores the steps required to reach Vietnam's development goals over the coming decade. It begins with an analysis of the economic framework for equitable growth and poverty reduction for the coming 10-year period. It finds that the proposed growth rates, and their linkage to savings and investment rates and to the external accounts are internallycoherent, and consistent with what has been achieved in other East Asian countries at similar periods of development. But drawing upon the experience of other countries, it is clear that achieving the goals will require serious policy and institutional change across a broad array of activities.
Vietnam's strategy calls for not only a high "quantity" of growth, but also a high "quality". Experience around the world shows that while growth is essential to reduce poverty, similar growth rates can have very different impacts on poverty reduction. Vietnam's goal is to share the fruits of growth broadly across all segments of the population, and also to avoid the inequities, social exclusion, and environmental degradation that has often accompanied other countries' rapid economic growth.
This is a difficult challenges, calling for a comprehensive approach to policy and institutional change. With this in mind, this report is organized around sixdevelopment "pillars" that will need to be built - and have been identified by the government - if the goals are to be reached. In the coming decade strong actions will be required by government, and strong support from Vietnam's development partners, in:
Creating a Supportive Climate for Enterprise;
Transforming the Rural Economy;
Enhancing Human Capacity;
Providing Efficient Infrastructure Services;
Improving Environmental Quality, and;
Building Modern Governance.
In each of these areas, the report draws upon the experience of other countries to recommend the steps that will be required to reach the targets set out in the strategy. Without progress on all fronts, Vietnam will not be able to achieve the economic and social transformation that it desires.
A balanced attack across all fronts does not, however, imply thateverything needs to be done at once. What is needed to prioritize actions is an identification of the bottlenecks - the hard-to-solve problems that are impediments to success - and to attack these first. Vietnam's development partners have an important role to play in helping to make all of Vietnam's resources - including ODA - more effective.
Cutting across these development pillars are a number of large - and difficult - decisions that Vietnam is struggling with, and which will fundamentally affect its development path in the coming decade.
I. THE ECONOMIC FRAMEWORK FOR GROWTH AND POVERTY REDUCTION On the face of it Vietnam's growth targets for the 2001-2010 period appear well within reach. Over the past decade, Vietnam has scored better on most of the aggregate indicators than are targeted in the coming decade. In reality, however, it is likely that continuing the growth rates of the 1990s will be more difficult, for two reasons: * First, the dramatic supply response following the sequential liberalization of agriculture, small scale services, and foreign investment is no longer available. It needs to be supplemented by an equal liberalization in the manufacturing sector, where the supply response cannot be taken for granted, but will need to be earned through a consistent incentive framework; * Second, the kinds of policy changes required to promote a new round of growth - discussed in the next section - are technically, politically and socially more difficult than those of the first round of doi moi.
The doubling of the size of Vietnam's economy envisaged over the coming decade, will need to be accompanied by a shift in the structure of the economy. The shift envisaged in the strategy - whereby agriculture continues to decline in importance, while industry becomes thekey driver - is consistent with the pattern in other successful East Asian countries at similar stages of development.
This shift, whereby workers gradually move out of agriculture into better paying jobs in manufacturing, and thus enabling those staying in agriculture to enjoy higher returns, is essential to further success in rapid poverty reduction. But it also raises important challenges, and introduces potential social and environmental stresses. Other countries that have paid inadequate attention to balanced growth have found that such phases have been accompanied by growing inequalities, and widening urban-rural gaps.
Poverty reduction is envisaged under two scenarios. In both scenarios overall economic growth is assumed to be 7 percent per year, but in the first the growth is assumed to be shared equitably across all areas and people. In the second scenario it is assumed that rural GDP rises at the same rate as the growth of agriculture (assumed to be 4 percent per year), while urban GDP grows at roughly the rate of the industrial sector (about 10 percent per year).
Under the first scenario the number of people in poverty falls by almost 20 million over the decade, and median expenditures rise by 70 percent, while under the second, the number in poverty falls by only 12 million, (and most of those remain highly vulnerable to shocks that would push them back into poverty), and median expenditures rise only half as much - by only 34 percent. Should Vietnam be successful in achieving 7 percent growth, the actual outcome in terms of poverty reduction is likely to be between these two scenarios. Just where within this range will depend on policies chosen, and will fundamentally affect Vietnam's development trajectory, its social structure and its rural-urban drift for decades to come.
For all these reasons the comprehensive approach to development suggested in the government's strategy document and explored in chapters 2 -7 of this report is so important. In this regard, also, the approach of this report picks up from last year's Vietnam Development Report, "Attacking Poverty", which laid out a three-fold imperative for poverty reduction. First, opportunity - access to jobs, credit, land, education etc - must be provided. Second, measures to ensure equity - in access to services, jobs, and investments - must be implemented. Third, special actions to address vulnerability - to disease, job loss, and natural disaster - should begiven priority. Last year's report ended with a recommendation that these imperatives should be factored into all of the areas now addressed in this year's report.
2. CREATING A SUPPORTIVE CLIMATE FOR ENTERPRISE Vietnam's strategy recognizes that in order to achieve the goals for the coming decade, the rate of investment will need to be raised (from the present 23 percent to 30 percent), and the productivity of investment will need to be raised. This raises three difficult challenges:
How to generate a climate in which investors are willing to take risks and invest;
How to raise domestic and foreign savings so that the investment can be financed, and;
How to tap into knowledge and technology, so that productivity of investment can be increased.
Fortunately, there is a set of measures - integration into the world economy, empowering the private sector, and reforming banking and state-enterprise systems - that will help address these challenges simultaneously. The government has decided in principle to move resolutely to adopt these measures in the coming years. What will be necessary to create a strong response from investors and savers will be early indications of credible and effective implementation.
Integration Into the World Economy. Over the past decade, Vietnam has significantly opened up to international trade and investment. Exports are equivalent to 44 percent of GDP (compared to an average of 27 percent for developing countries) and the share of the non-state sectorin exporting has risen from near zero at the beginning of the decade to 65 percent today. Nonetheless, Vietnam's trade regime today remains distorted, with effective rates of protection of over 100 percent in many industries.
While this has encouraged investment in these highly protected industries, ithas enabled these industries to stay uncompetitive, and has led to high prices for Vietnamese consumers and businesses. Businesses have to pay higher prices for steel, cement and telecommunications, thus placing them at a serious competitive disadvantage; farmers have to pay 40 percent more for fertilizers than farmers in other countries (while also being penalized by rice export quotas); and consumers have to pay twice as much for goods such as electric fans and motorcycles than citizens in surrounding countries.
Like a growing number of countries, Vietnam recognizes that the process of globalization presents both an opportunity and a challenge. Vietnam's decision to honor its commitments under Afta and to sign the Bilateral Trade Agreement with the US, will have great gains for Vietnam in terms of exports, investment opportunities, acquisition of technology, and poverty reduction. Indeed, it would be wise to accelerate the implementation of commitments made under Afta.
By agreeing on a specific time-bound program of integration over the coming years, Vietnam is acting smartly. It gives potential investors a clear timeline, and thus facilitating investment preparation; and it gives those industries which may be adversely affected clear notice that they must adapt or downsize. It is vital that actions follow the announced timeline, as slippages will threaten the credibility of the entire transition. The time must be used wisely in the interim to put in place a clear and supportive social safety net for any workers who may need to shift industries, and also to build flexibility in the SOE sector. There is a serious risk, however, of investing heavily in SOEs in the near term in an effort to make them competitive when protection is reduced.
In our view, Vietnam's target export growth of 15 percent per year on average in the 2001-2010 period is attainable if it follows through on its trade policy decisions.
Encouraging the Private Sector. If investment rates are to rise as needed, we estimate that domestic private investment will need to rise from the current low level of around 7 percent of GDP to 12-15 percent of GDP for the 2001-2010 period. To date in Vietnam the climate for the private sector has been grudging rather than supportive. Here Vietnam differs markedly from China, where the private sector has been recognized as a key partner in development and poverty reduction. During the 1990s the number of private firms in China increased more than ten-fold (from 100,000 to well over 1 million), while private output and employment grew at average annual rates of 70 percent and 40 percent respectively. There are indications that the climate in Vietnam is also improving.
The Enterprise Law, which has substantially simplified business start-up has led to the registration of more than 10,000 additional domestic firms in the first nine months of this year. However, domestic firms still number less than 30,000 and produce well under 10 percent of GDP. A major recent analysis of the private sector in China finds that changing attitudes - ofofficials and bankers - towards private enterprise, are often even more important than improvements in the legal and regulatory framework.
The draft strategy promises a level playing field for the private sector. This will require three sets of actions:
A shift in the social and administrative culture from one of reluctance and control towards one of active support and encouragement;
An introduction of a transparent and predictable regulatory framework, where discretionary actions on the part of officials are minimized, and;
Development of a financial system that allocates funds based on risk and expected return, and a clearer legal framework for land use rights and collateral arrangements.
Mobilizing Foreign Direct Investment. The government rightly envisages foreign investment playing an important role in bringing investment and technology into Vietnam. During the past decade Vietnam benefited disproportionately from direct investment inflowswhich were on average equivalent to 5.5 percent of GDP (compared to an average of 0.9 percent for all developing countries and 1.1 percent for China). The government projects a similar level of inflows for the current decade.
This is possible, but not under the present environment. The large inflowsof the mid-1990s must not be understood as normal. Vietnam's attractiveness has sunk in recent years as other countries have become more attractive, and the high cost of doing business in Vietnam - in the form of delays in approvals, perceived capricious shifts in the regulatory environment, corruption, weak access to the Internet, very high telecommunications charges etc - have become evident. These perceptions can be reversed with strong action, but even so, Vietnam should realistically be aiming at inflows of US$1 billion per year in the near term rather than the $2 billion envisaged.
Reforming Banks and State-Owned Enterprises. Vietnam's economic goals remain seriously threatened by a large number of loss-making SOEs, whose inefficiencies are enabled by a banking system that is in turn weakened by them. SOEs still absorb around half of all bankcredit, while contributing no significant employment growth. By enjoying preferential access to the state banks they have delayed the introduction of modern banking methods and contributed to a large overhang of non-performing loans (estimated at $2 billion-$4 billion).
The government's announcement to move forward with banking and SOE reform offers hope that this major impediment to development can be addressed. The government's plan to equitize, divest or close one-third of the 5,300 SOEs in the coming three years is an importantstep, which if implemented firmly can make a very positive contribution. But even more important will be the policies adopted for the remaining SOEs.
The parallel recent decision to reform the state banking system - by separating commercial from "policy" lending, systematically addressing the problem of non-performing loans, and creating incentives for sound banking - is a central element to the solution in that it will over time prohibit the roll-over of bad loans. But serious banking reform will take at least five years, and will require a cultural and behavioral shift within the banking profession, as well as strong leadership from the top. In the meantime, it is vital that the SOEs be subjected to greater discipline and transparency. Thegovernment's decision to expose some of the major SOEs to international-standard audits will help. Publishing audited accounts so that policymakers and citizens can know how public assets are being managed will help more.
At root there remains an internal contradiction in the draft strategy with regard to the role of the SOE sector that will need to be addressed if Vietnam's goals are to be reached. Associated with this is a risk that heavy investment will be channeled to the SOEs in the near term in an effort to prepare them for the competitive environment they willneed to face in later years. Such investment needs to be undertaken with great care. Experience in numerous countries suggests that usually rather than preparing domestic enterprises for competition, such actions serve to build up opposition to such competition.
3. TRANSFORMING THE RURAL ECONOMY The coming decade will need to see dramatic changes in rural areas if Vietnam is to achieve its development goals. Raising living standards in rural areas - the home of 75 percent of the population and 90 percent of the poor - is perhaps the most difficult challenge facing Vietnam in the coming decade. Already, farm sizes, on average only 0.8 hectare, provide only part-time work for most farm families, and the lack of growth of off-farm opportunities has been a major disappointment of the last decade.
Like all low income agricultural countries, Vietnam needs to adopt a seemingly paradoxical stance of giving a high priority to raising agricultural productivity while recognizing that success can come only as agriculture declines as an employer of labor. In transforming the rural sector so that it helps rather than hinders the attainment of the development vision, Vietnam faces four rural imperatives.
Intensifying Agricultural Production. The successful growth of agricultural production (4.9 percent average annual growth) during the 1990s was largely due to increased labor and capital inputs, which combined accounted for 87 percent of the growth. Land expansion accounted for 9 percent of the gains, and technology improvement only 4 percent. Vietnam's rice yields are still well below China's, offering scope for further gains, but the coming decade will need to see different drivers of growth, with a greater role for technology change and new varieties. This will require more attention to research and dissemination. Vietnam spends only 1.7 percent of its public agricultural budget on research in comparison with 6 percent in China and 10 percent in Malaysia and Thailand.
Vietnam has good opportunity to switch public agricultural allocations from production SOEs towards research and extension. Related, it will be necessary to open up supply industries, especially seeds, to full private involvement, if yields are to be increased.
Diversifying Agriculture. Rice, which accounts for over 60 percent of agricultural land, will need to decline in relative importance if the goal to double the average agricultural product to $2,000 per hectare is to be reached. Despite an official policy which supports diversification thereremain local pressures to produce rice. Huge opportunities exist for higher value-added crops if a more supportive climate can be provided. A possible problem with the approach established in the strategy, which sets out production targets for a whole range of products, is that farmers maybe encouraged to invest in growing particular crops either through incentives such as additional land or subsidized credit or through lack of alternatives and restrictions on land use.
A key question will be how to encourage diversification without introducing new distortions? An alternative to the more directive approach followed in the recent past would be one which:
Gives farmers as much information (technical and market) as possible in a
comprehensible form;
Allows farmers access to credit at positive real interest rates;
Creates a supportive physical infrastructure;
Promotes the growth of agro-industry, particularly the private sector and facilitates access to international markets, and;
Allows farmers to make up their own minds about the most appropriate investment for their farms.
Promoting Off-farm Employment. In every country that has successfully modernized, labor has been drawn out of agriculture into higher value-adding industry. Such a transition will be important in Vietnam not only to enable the industrial growth required to drive growth, butalso to increase productivity and to enable agricultural wages to rise. If farmers are to enjoy the same real income gains as the population as a whole, the number of workers in agriculture willneed to fall significantly over the decade. In order to cater for these workers, plus the bulk of the expected increased rural workforce (thus preventing an explosive urbanization), the rural industrial picture in Vietnam will need to change dramatically.
Unlike China, Vietnam has little experience of rural industrialization. Promoting the private SMEs that must drive this process requires the same policies as to promote private investment in any areas (see above), but in addition will require increased investment in rural infrastructure, and in rural-urban transport. Provincial and district authorities will be key inensuring that the reforms undertaken at the national level translate into an enabling environment for enterprise development in rural areas. Information and resources often take time to filter down to the local level and this could mean that reforms for enterprise development happen morequickly in some areas than in others.
Targeting Remote and Upland Areas. Special attention will be needed for the poorest areas. Rural poverty is widespread but is much more severe in some regions than in others. In particular, high rates ofpoverty persist in upland, ethnic minority areas. In 12 out of 13 of the poorest provinces (those with more than 60 percent of the population below the poverty line) ethnic minorities represent at leasthalf of the population. This compares with an ethnic minority share in the overall population of 15 percent. Although ethnic minorities have enjoyed rising expenditures and improved socioeconomic indicators, improvements in their living standards lag well behind those for the majority population.
Ethnic minority areas have benefited from targeted programs, but their effectiveness has clearly not been sufficient to address their persistent poverty. The current focus on "sedentarizing" ethnic minority groups could usefully be replaced by much more intensive research into agricultural options for upland farming systems. This would need to be reinforcedby extension services, which are responsive to traditional knowledge and farmers' needs and which can disseminate information to non-Vietnamese speakers, and land titling measures that are more in line with ethnic community traditions, practices and systems of land use.
4. ENHANCING HUMAN CAPACITY Almost all indicators of human well-being have improved markedly throughout the 1990s and Vietnam has generally outperformed countries at similar income levels. For example, its net primary school enrollment rate (92 percent) and its adult literacy rate (94 percent) are amongst the highest in the developing world. Similarly its infant mortality rate (37 per 1,000)and its life expectancy (67 years) are significantly above international norms. As over the coming decade Vietnam seeks to build on this progress, it will need to address some significant challenges.
Improving the Quality of Social Services. The emphasis in the past has been on quantitative achievements: getting kids into schools, establishing an extensive health care delivery network, and target-driven reductions in population growth. The emphasis now needs toshift to improve the quality of these services and to facilitate people to make well-informed choices. In education, quality at all levels needs improvement. The basic education curriculum needs to be modernized by moving away from a system that emphasizes the recall of memorizedfacts, to a modern, dynamic and flexible knowledge system that encourages creative thinking and is able to make Vietnam the knowledge-based economy that it aspires to be. There is also an acute need to raise the quality of health care services, particularly at the commune and district levels.
Technical quality of services can be improved through in-service training, supervision, and quality assurance mechanisms. Public health services need to become more client-friendly and adopt a culture of service. In the field of reproductive health, the government is moving towards better preventive measures, such as counseling and information, education and communication practices, a wider choice of contraceptive methods and the improvement of staff. Improving the quality of education and healthcare will require measures to improve the training and compensation of the service providers.
Ensuring Equitable Access for all Groups. Despite widespread expansion in the provision of basic social services, gaps exist in the access to these services by groups differentiated by income levels, geographical location, gender and ethnicity. Social indicators are worse for the poor and for those living in upland areas. Ethnic minorities are particularly disadvantaged and vulnerable, and gender gaps are widening in some areas. During the transition to a market-economy, some public services that had earlier been provided at local levels - such as public creches - are no longer provided, and the burden on women has increased. The adult malnutrition rate, which was the same for females and males five years ago, is now higher for females (30 percent) than for males (25 percent), although both remain much too high.
During the coming decade, the government has announced that it will give extra effort to close the gaps between the more disadvantaged groups and the others. In education, specific programs need to be developed to respond to the needs of ethnic minorities, for example through bilingual education, and to lessen the gaps in the quality of education for different regions, income, and gender groups. School feeding programs might be necessary to create incentives for poor children living in upland and remote areas to attend school. Participation of local communities, parents and children in education management and planning is critical to sustained improvements in the sector.
Special attention to the poor is also needed in health care, where formal arrangements fail to protect the poor. The health insurance scheme only partially covers lower income groups, the exemptions system does not work properly, and out-of-pocket payments for the poor remain verylarge relative to their incomes. The government's targeted program of assistance - the Hunger Eradication and Poverty Reduction (HEPR) Program - could play an important role in identifying the poor and providing targeted assistance to meet their needs, if a number of weaknesses are properly addressed. Finally, it is important to improve the effectiveness and efficiency of social safety nets and disaster management mechanisms in order to better protect vulnerable groups against the negative impact of individual and community risks.
Improving the Level and Allocation of Public Expenditures. Public expenditure levels in basic social services in Vietnam are currently low when compared with other developing countries. Public spending on health has grown rapidly over the past five years, reaching 7 percent of the budget in 1998 (about 1.4 percent of GDP), but this remains lowby international standards. As a result, households finance 80 percent of total healthcare spending in Vietnam. There may be scope for reallocating public expenditures in health away from curative care, which currently absorbs 70 percent of the health budget, towards preventive care which receives just 15 percent of the budget, but the priority should be toincrease the level and efficiency of spending overall.
In education, there is also a need to raise public spending and to improve its allocation across regions and provinces. Total education and training expenditure has grown significantly over the past five years, reaching 17 percent of total public spending (about 3.5 percent of GDP).But nearly half of total spending on primary education is financed by households, which implies an undue burden on the poor. There is little scope for the reallocation of public spending across primary, secondary and tertiary services without damaging service delivery. But there is a needto reduce existing regional variations in expenditures and quality of education by reviewing the system of budget transfer norms for allocating education funds to the provinces.
5. PROVIDING EFFICIENT INFRASTRUCTURE SERVICES Dramatic improvements in infrastructure services during the 1990s have contributed to Vietnam's growth, export performance and poverty reduction. Road freight more than doubled during the 1990s, power production tripled, and access to electricity rose from 47 percent to 75 percent of the population. But even so, Vietnam remains seriously underinvested in infrastructure in comparison with other low income countries, and without continued strong investment there remains a risk that bottlenecks could choke off growth. Vietnam is also committed to bringing infrastructure to remote and disadvantaged areas, which will incur high costs while bringing high social gains. If the government is to attain its vision for the infrastructure sector in the coming decade, a four-fold strategy is required.
Prioritize Investments Carefully. The government's program for the coming decade rightly envisages some closing of the "infrastructure gap" between Vietnam and its neighbors. This will involve very large investments across the full range of transport, energy, water, sanitation and telecommunications sectors. In energy alone, for example, the plan requires investments of 4-5 percent of GDP, about twice what its East Asian neighbors spend. Plans for energy and transport combined will require investment of almost 7 percent of GDP, a level equivalent to the entire public investment program in the past decade. Thus, while many investments will have good returns it is vital that care be given to establishing professional systems for careful cost-benefit analysis (in which economic, social and environmental costs are all taken into account), and that less attractive investments be weeded out early.
Invest in Access for Disadvantaged Areas and Groups. In addition to being fundamental in promoting national economic growth, infrastructure is a vital ingredient in reducing poverty and promoting balanced growth. Vietnam has an impressive policy for bringingservices to all areas of the country, but even so, over the past five years more than half of public expenditures went to the Red River delta and the southeast, while these areas account for one third of the population and less than one fifth of the poor. The choice between investing in "growth poles" and underserved areas is one of the difficult issues being faced by the government, as in other countries.
Diversify the Pattern of Finance. The pattern of financing, whereby government resources and ODA financed a large share of infrastructure growth in the 1990s will not suffice in the coming decade. The needs are much too great, and ODA donors are less willing to financeinvestments when private investment appears available. Two additional sources - private capital and retained earnings - will need to finance more than half of new investments if targets are to be reached. Private investors have demonstrated themselves willing to finance investments inpower, telecommunications, public transport, water supply, and even sanitation, but so far virtually no deal has been concluded. Immediate steps can be taken to unlock private investments waiting in the wings.
This could be followed by a clear prioritization of projects for privateinvestment, with competitive bidding becoming the norm. Self-financing by utilities also offers great promise filling financing gaps. This will require rational pricing mechanisms, and more disciplined and transparent financial management. The government should set targets for utilities in power, water, transportation to become commercially creditworthy in the coming few years, together with the key municipalities.
Improve the Management and Sustainability of Investments. The government has recognized the considerable scope for efficiency gains from reducing waste and improving performance. In the water sector, decayed distribution networks allow pollutants to seep into the water supply and 30 percent of piped water is lost before it ever reaches customers. Waterbusinesses lose almost 40 percent of their revenues because customers are not billed for the water they use, or because companies fail to collect. Irrigation systems deliver water unreliably due to poor operation which causes users to incur pumping costs or suffer lower yields. Reformsare needed to increase competition between private and public providers of infrastructure services, and the financial and managerial autonomy of public providers needs to be increased to provide incentives for removing these inefficiencies.
6. IMPROVING ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY The rapid pace of change in Vietnam is placing heavy stress on Vietnam's unique natural environment. The coming decade could see a further serious worsening of the environment with irreversible consequences. Alternatively, with carefully designed policies, firmly implemented, economic growth could be used to enable an improvement rather than a destructionof the environment. The government has recently issued a strong National Environmental Protection Strategy, that recognizes the urgency of the problem and sets out programs for action.
In the last five decades, natural forest cover has shrunk from 43 percent to 29 percent of land area, and the country is facing an acute shortage of arable land. Habitat loss has led to a rise in the number of threatened species. Cities are growing at the rate of 4.5 percent per year, more than triple the rural population growth rate, placing huge pressures on municipal infrastructure and services and causing problems such as unmanaged landfills, transport-related air pollution, untreated hospital and hazardous waste, and raw sewage flowing in open channels.
Sedimentation, and point and non-point sources of pollution are threatening the health of rivers. And over-fishing and destruction of coral reefs and mangroves have reduced the fishing yield. Action is required across the range of "green" (loss of forest cover and forest biodiversity), "blue" (degradation of water resources, loss of wetland habitats and inadequate protection of marine and coastal areas), and "brown" (urban and industrial pollution) environmental areas. Four guiding principles are required.
Creating Incentives for Changing Behavior. Community empowerment, enforcement of laws and decrees, access to knowledge, and the provision of information and trade opportunities, act as incentives to induce behavioral changes necessary for environmental protection and sustainable resource use. Without such changes in behavior, the downward spiral in environmental trends in Vietnam cannot be reversed. The Government's Five Million Hectare Reforestation Program is a major management initiative to meet forest product needs in a sustainable manner, protect the environment and increase social and economic benefits.
In the blue sector, the implementation of the new Law on Water Resources will help improve the management of the country's valuable water resources. In other areas, however, controlling unregulated activities and adopting protective legislation have proven difficult, because there is no clear enforcement responsibility for coastal and marine areas, wetlands and other freshwater bodies. Success in controlling and limiting industrial and urban pollution (the brown agenda) will depend on a credible enforcement and compliance mechanism that not only regulates pollution but also provides incentives to prevent pollution from occurring in the first place.
Involving Communities and Citizens More Fully. Experience around the world is clear that it is rarer that governments successfully lead on the front lines of environmental protection, but rather local communities, citizens groups and NGOs. The new government strategy givesgreater emphasis to "encouraging public participation", which can build upon some important and successful ongoing pilot activities, and introduce a new and effective way of doing business. In the past, little attention has been paid to local incentives and capacity building for environmental management. The main reasons cited for this are limited environmental awareness, few environmental NGOs, and highly centralized environmental planning and management. These constraints will need to be overcome to ensure greater public participation and involvement.
Improving Institutional Effectiveness. The new Environmental Strategy correctly accords much higher priority to institutional development than earlier plans. The Ministry of Science, Technology and Environment (Moste), the National Environment Agency (Nea) and other government agencies with responsibility for environment are working in a weak publicadministration context that is neither performance-based nor outcome-oriented. Their effectiveness is currently severely limited by small budget allocations, inadequate skills, a lack of mandates at the district level, and perhaps most importantly, a lack of influence with other ministries and agencies in Vietnam.
Existing technical assistance programs have made efforts to build capacity within Moste and Nea, but these will need further support to make them more effective in the future. Capacity will also need to be strengthened at local levels to support more decentralized and local efforts at improving the environment. In addition to capacity-building, it will be necessary to streamline and reorganize environmental and natural resources functions as part of its broader efforts to reform the public sector.
Diversifying Sources of Financing for Environmental Programs. Preliminary estimates indicate that to meet the targets of the Environment Strategy, the government will need to spend several-fold more than what it currently spends on the environment. Given the competing needs on the budget, however, it is highly unlikely that the full needs can be met from the budget alone. The first need, therefore, is to prioritize the expenditures. Second, the government should consider a mix of financing instruments to support the implementation of the Strategy, aside from traditional ODA. These would include increased allocation from revenue budgets in sectoral ministries, widening the use of cost recovery measures, environmental user fees and pollution charges, using environmental funds, accessing GEF resources and also tapping into emerging instruments, such as carbon trading. Finally, increased effectiveness of development aid to the environment - in line with government investment priorities - can be achieved through more effective coordination and partnership.
7. BUILDING MODERN GOVERNANCE The 10-year strategy recognizes that fundamental to Vietnam's transition will be the development of improved governance structures. Experience from many other countries suggests that delivering the strategic targets will involve an evolution in the role of the state, and actions to build a modern governance structure.
Strengthening the Public Service. Vietnam has already started to reform its public administration into a service which can meet the demands of a more modern, market-oriented economy. But progress has been slow, and further actions are needed urgently. The PublicAdministration Review (Par) completed by the government proposes a number of reforms, beginning with the critical area of civil service reform. It recognizes that substantive and enduring change will require major changes in human resources and in organizational practice and policy. Vietnam not only needs a strong, well-organized public administration system, butalso an adequately remunerated service with a personnel policy and grading system capable of effectively implementing these changes. Equally important is that the public service be compact and coherent, with a clear mission, defined goals, and is performance-oriented and accountable. Practices, methods, systems and procedures need to be revised to foster and enhance a new working culture of excellence and of service delivery.
Creating Transparent and Professional Financial Management Systems. Substantial progress has been achieved recently with the publication of the state budget in June 1999, publication of Government Financial Statistics (GFS) in the IMF yearbook, improvements in accounting and auditing standards, and improvements in debt management and ODA management. Yet, these are only the first steps towards making the management of public resources transparent and accountable. The budget coverage is only partial and immediate steps could be taken to publish more detailed information on the public accounts. Reorganizing the Vietnamese Accounting Association would present an opportunity to form a professional body consistent with good international practice. Similarly, a Public SectorAccounting Standards Board should be set up to establish and implement public sector accounting standards. A framework needs to be put in place to ensure that public corporations act in a transparent, accountable manner and provide financial information for public scrutiny.
Developing Legal Systems. For the last decade, Vietnam has been engaged in building a state ruled by law, as mandated by the 1992 Constitution. Although much has been achieved, officials and development partners agree that in virtually every major sector of the legal systemmuch yet remains to be done. Currently, there is no comprehensive strategy for developing Vietnam's legal system, and legal development has tended to proceed in an ad hoc fashion. While this piecemeal approach has been the way legal development has taken place in most countries, most other countries had the luxury of developing their systems over centuries. Vietnam, in contrast, is keen to integrate quickly into the regional and world economy and to become a modern, industrialized nation by the year 2010. This will require a well-functioning legal system to underpin this transition. A comprehensive legal development strategy needs to be designed so that Vietnam can put in place a complete, coherent and well-functioning legalsystem in a relatively short time.
Creating a Participative and Responsive Government. Government strategy documents give high priority to improving peoples' participation, access to information, and awareness of legal rights and obligations. Recent research indicates that poor people in Vietnamare hungry for a two-way flow of information: information from government to them about the nature and timing of policies and programs that affect their lives, and from them to government with a view to influencing some of these policies and programs. Access to such information channels is often felt to be limited to a few "well-connected" participants. More widespread access would lead to a more equitable and inclusive pattern of development.
The government is taking measures to address these shortcomings by implementing the Grass-roots Democracy Decree, which offers a crucial and encouraging legal framework for increasing community participation at the local level. The new Law on Science and Technology is also an important step forward in providing a clearer legal framework for the operation ofresearch-oriented associations and NGOs. A supportive legal framework also needs to be provided for associations and NGOs not involved in charity or research, and which are therefore not covered by the existing legal framework. A comprehensive and clear Law on Associationswhich would offer a supportive environment, balanced with appropriate state oversight functions and accountability mechanisms, is needed.
To ensure that women have an equal voice, Vietnam needs to take a gender-sensitive approach to participation and encourage and support more equal participation in public life by women. This is not only right from an equity point of view but, as recent research indicates, will also promote faster development and cleaner business and government (less corruption). This can be achieved through means that ensure equal access to education (especially secondary and higher), equal access to information (including legal literacy), and facilitating greater participation of women in political and other leadership positions, especially at provincial and lower levels.
Fighting Corruption. Fighting corruption is an important priority. Vietnam's leaders need to set an excellent example and must continue to show their determination to fight corruption at all levels. While there are individual steps which can help with this, such as minimizing red-tape and reforming procurement, it is important that the reasons behind corruptbehavior are understood and measures taken to address these at the same time. There is much international experience that can assist Vietnam in this task.
8. SUPPORT FROM THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY Vietnam is embarking upon a 10-year period that will shape its development for decades to come. If it is successful in reaching the goals it has set itself it will, by the end of the decade, be well on its way to building the base for a modernizing economy. In order to reach its goals, it is choosing to turn to the global economy as a market for its products, and a source of capital, technology and ideas. It is important that the international community support it in its efforts.
International trade and investment will be the most important contribution that the international community can bring. As Vietnam opens its own markets and follows market friendly domestic policies, it can expect its own exports to grow - from the current level of $14 billion towards the goal of $50 billion by 2010. The international community can support this process by reducing their own trade distortion, especially non-tariff barriers and domestic subsidies.
Foreign investment, likewise, will play a crucial role in introducing technology, management skills and market know-how to Vietnam. Whether the government's hope of inflows of $2 billion per year (5.2 percent of projected GDP) during the next decade is reached will depend on progress in creating a clear and efficient regulatory environment. For its part the international business community needs to demonstrate strong corporate citizenship and positive "externalities" in the form of skills upgrading and technology transfer.
ODA needs to play a strong continuing role in the years ahead. During the 1990s, ODA inflows rose from near zero to around $1.3 billion per year. While relatively modest by the standards of other low income countries, these inflows (totaling some $6 billion for the 1990s as a whole), have played a very constructive financial and technical role across a broad range ofactivities, while supporting Vietnam's gradual policy and institutional renewal.
International NGOs - which in aggregate have invested around $80 million annually in grant funds for poverty programs - have also played a highly valuable role, introducing lessons and methods from international experience, especially in poverty reduction programs. Over the past two years the international community has recognized that with the large numbers of donors, programs and projects in Vietnam it was necessary to move towards a new way of doing business if funds were to have maximum impact on poverty reduction and economic development. This recognition has been part of increased understanding globally as to what makes development cooperation effective. Strands to this thinking are:
The importance of a strategic vision: too often development interventions have been undertaken with inadequate understanding of the broader policy and institutional context. It is essential that ODA supports policy and institutional reform and never substitutes for it;
Minimizing gaps, avoiding duplication, and lowering transactions costs: too often ODA has been less effective than it could have been due to fragmentation and uncoordinated programs. Working as genuine partners can substantially improve overall cost-effectiveness, but requires changed behavior from us all, and;
The need to focus on outcomes rather than inputs: traditional measures of ODA success have too often been in the form of disbursements, timelines or completions rather than impacts on the quality of life. Investment in improved monitoring and evaluation systems, with a focus on on-the-ground impact, is needed to help change mindsets and improve effectiveness.
In an effort to address these issues, the government, donors and NGOs in Vietnam have sought to establish partnerships in key areas and sectors to facilitate discussion, design and implementation of programs. A companion volume to this report ("Partnerships for Development") is a compilation of brief notes prepared by some of these groups. In the spirit ofthe new approach, these notes seek to link the programs supported by the international community to Vietnam's goals and strategy for the coming decade.
Part I: Pillars of Development Part I provides a commentary on the emerging draft Ten YearSocio-Economic Development Strategy for 2001-2010. This document lays out the vision and the strategic directions for Vietnam during the first decade of this new millennium. It is currently in draft form and is undergoing an extensive process of consultation within the government (at national and local levels) and the society at large.
Part I comments on the comprehensive development agenda laid out for thenext decade. It starts with a framework for rapid growth and poverty reduction and then examines the strategies required for: (i) Enterprise development; (ii) Rural development; (iii) Human and social development; (iv) Infrastructure development; (v) Environmental quality, and; (vi) Good governance.
Since the government is formulating a long-term development agenda, itwill need to take a comprehensive approach to development and tackle all these "pillars" of development. Without progress on all fronts, Vietnam will not be able to achieve the economic and social transformation that it desires. A balanced attack across all fronts does not, however, imply that everything needs to be done at once. What is needed to prioritize actions is an identification of the bottlenecks - the hard-to-solve problems that are impediments to success - and to begin by attacking these first.
What is also needed is that the energies of all of Vietnam's development partners are harnessed so that they are all working together in partnership to make all of Vietnam's resources - including aid resources - more effective.
For the full text of this section please refer to the Asian Development Bank's Home Page: adb. org .
Part II: Partnerships for Development This section addresses the theme of stronger partnerships to help the government of Vietnam to attain its vision and implement its strategy. It brings together a series of thematic notes on Vietnam's development strategy, prepared by the development partnership groups in Vietnam.
These notes seek to describe and distill Vietnam's goals and the steps needed to get there. They also describe how the donor community can help Vietnam in attaining its vision. The work of the development partnerships, and the production of these notes, are indicative of an important new direction in international development cooperation, both in Vietnam and in many other countries.
Around the world, there is a recognition that the old ways of working have not produced the results that had been expected. The current time in Vietnam offers international partners the opportunity to actively listen to the government's articulation of its long-term development goals and to work together to identify and address the constraints and roadblocks that would prevent the goals being reached.
For the full text of this section please refer to the Asian Development Bank's Home Page: adb. org.
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Tim Cambell - Insider Secrets to Successful Ebay Trading 68KB Tim Cho - Developing A Winning System For Trading High Performance Stocks 1,495KB Tim Ord - N. Y.S. E. Tick Index 1995 976KB Tim Truebenbach - The Comple Methology For Beating The Market Through Intermediate Term Trading 7,168KB Timothoty Vick - Picking Stocks The Buffett Way Understanding Return On Equity 95KB Todd Mitchell - Comprehensive Training Manual Todd Mitchell - Audio Tape Training Manual Todd Mitchell - Quickstart Training Manual
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Tom Busby - S&P 500, The Ultimate Day Trading Vehicle 738KB Tom Demark - New Timing Indicators 1995 1,731KB Tom Joseph - Trading System Using Elliot Wave
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Tony Crabel - 2barNR and ORB 435KB Tony Compton - Shares Derivatives and Taxation Tony Compton - Trading with a Plan 51,832KB Tony Crabel - Day Trading With Short Term Price Patterns And Opening Range Tony Crabel - Inside day patterns in the S&P
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Tony Oz - Short term trading tutorial. pdf Tony Oz - Stock Trading Wizard. pdf Tony Oz - The StockTrader. pdf
Tony Plummer - Forecasting Financial Markets 67KB Tony Plummer - The Troubled Trader Tony Turner - Trading With bolinger Bands. pdf Tradestation - Tradestation Easy Language Reference Manual. pdf
Trader Vic II (Sperandeo) 6,795KB Traders University - Traders Trick Entry 140KB Trading Blind Stock Trading 137KB Trading Toolkit Collection Vol.3 - Gli Swing Chart Di W. D.Gann
Trading Triangles - Active Trader Magazine 610KB Tradingeducator - Spreads, A Whole New Way To Trade 225KB Tradingmarkets - A Profitable Trade Using Multiple Patterns By Kevin Haggerty 72KB TradingMarkets - Carolyn Boreden - Intro to Fibonacci Time & Price Patterns Workbook 2001 Tradingmarkets - ETF Sweet Spot 475KB 34x61x16M jpeg TradingMarkets - Nine Ways To Improve Your Trading Results 18KB Tradingmarkets - Option Income Stream System 484KB Tradingmarkets - The Bollinger Bands Swing Trading System 454KB Tradingmarkets - Trading Edge Trading Tactic 2,873KB Tradingmarkets - Trading Patterns - Daytrade Risk, Big-Trade 103KB Trend Trading_Articles Trading The Square of Nine Trivette Donald - A Professional Look at S&PDay Trading Turtle Trader - Complete Site 11,264KB Turtle Trader - Original Turtle Trading System Course 10,940KB Turtle Trader - Turtle Trader Techniques 1 1,048KB Turtle Trader - Turtle Trader Techniques 2 757KB TurtleTraders - Complete Turtle Web Site as PDF Document 10,940KB Tushar Chande - Developing New Trading Systems Tushar S. Chande - Beyond Technical Analysis
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Van Tharp - Financial Freedom Through Electronic Day Trading. pdf Van Tharp - Money Management Report. pdf Van Tharp - Trade Your Way To Financial Freedom. pdf
Van K Tharp - Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom 3,383KB
Van Tharp & June B. - Financial Freedom Through Electroni Vern Hayden - Getting an Investing Game Plan 1,509KB Victor Niederhoffer - Market Making and Reversal on the Stock Exchange 2,158KB Victor Sperandeo - Trader Vic Ii. djvu 1,644KB Vikas Agarwal - Risks and portfolio decisions involving Hedge Funds (1) 160KB Vladimir Daragan - How to Win the Stock Market Game 366KB Vladimir Daragan - Short-Term Trading Analysis
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Wei chong, Lorry Wragler, Chien Hua Li - Neural Networks Literature 6000 pages 74,613KB Weintraub, Neal - Secrets of Todays Top Traders
Welles Wilder - The Delta Phenomenon or The Hidden Order in Markets 9,525KB 647x253x16M jpeg Welles Wilder-Nuevos Conceptos Sobre Sistemas Técnicos (map Wetsel Market Bureau Inc - A Course In Trading. pdf Will Marshall - Rich Poor Shareowner Willaim Goetzmann - Market in Three Centuries 1,914KB Willford King - Technical Methods of Forecasting Stock Prices 378KB William Brock - Simple Technical Trading Rules And The Stochastic Properties 3,640KB William Brock - Understanding Simple Technical Treading Rules 3,640KB William Bronchick - Financing Secrets of a Millionaire Real Estate Investor 4,675KB 713x902x16M jpeg William Dungian - New Blueprints for Gains In Stock & Grains & One-Way Formula for Trading in Sto 11,629KB William Dunnigan - New Blue Prints & 1 Way Formula. zip William Eng - The Day Trader's Manual William Eng - Trading Rules
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Zacks Investment Research - Earning Estimate Revision A Successful Strategy For All Markets. pdf
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125 % Platinum forex. txt 6KB
80 Trading Strategies for Forex Edge_Forex_Trading_System. pdf 1,070KB
AIME backtest. pdf 830KB
Adam Burgoyne - The 5 EMAs FOREX SYSTEM http://5emas-forex-trading-system. co Adam Burgoyne - Trader BO Divergence System - http://divergence-system. com
Alan Benefield - A Working Man's Position Trading System CD+ manual
Alex Buzby - Magical Trading www. magicaltrading. com Alex Kzheckevsky - Time Trap System
Amin Sadak - Affluent-Desktop-Currency-Trader. pdf
Amin Sadak - Mechanical Discretion www. lentrica. co. uk
Avi Frister - Forex Trading Machine
Forex Cash Cow Strategy
Forex Runner Forex Flip & Go
Beau Diamond - EZ Trade 4X [Creator of 5Min Forex Course]
Bill Wermine - WinningintheForeignExchangeMarkets. pdf
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CI Forex Trading System bookd1.pdf 4,568KB www. forextechniques. com CI Forex Trading System bookd2.pdf 3,300KB
Chris Lori - Global Fundamentals Forex Manual
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CopperChips - EURUSD Trading System. pdf 131KB CopperChips - EURUSD Trading System. xls 18KB CopperChips - Forex Retracement Theory Report. pdf 726KB CopperChips - Trading Economic Data System. pdf
Dirk Tu Toit - Bird_Watching_In_Lion_Country. pdf http://www. forex-trading-explained. com/ Don Schellenberg - Advanced Strategies in Forex Trading Seminar notes + audio 2007
Don Schellenberg - Trade Like a Pro in Currency Trading Seminar notes + audio 2007
Dr. Jeffrey Wilde - Trade Secrets ebook + videos win-at-trading. com/
Erol Bortucene & Cynthia Macy - The Day Trade Forex System daytradeforex. com
Erol Bortucene - The Euro Fractal Trading System daytradeforex. com
Erol Bortucene - Day Trade Forex - Advanced Course Erol Bortucene - Day Trade Forex - Basic Course Erol Bortucene - Forex Profit System. pdf
Every Investor's Ultimate Guide to Forex Trading forexpolis. om
Ez Profits Trading Systems
Forex For Everyone http://strategictradingsystems. com/
Forex Mid-Term http://strategictradingsystems. com/
Forex Online Manual For Successful Trading
Forex Secrets Exposed http://www. forexsecretsexposed. com/
Forex Advisor - Inside The Tradrs Mind Best Of Best. pdf 311KB Forex Advisor - Understanding Trading, Fear, Risk, Loss. pdf 129KB Forex Day Trading System. htm 2KB Forex Freedom. exe 399KB Forex Online Manural For Succesful Trading. pdf 3,016KB
FX Wizard spreadtrade2win. com
FXCM - FX Power Trading Course
G7 Forex System www. forex-science. com
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Intro To Forex. pdf 832KB
Institutional Forex System http://1forextrading. com
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Jose Soto - Forex Video http://mentormeforex. com
Juan Saton - Forex Gladiator
Karl Graham - Forex Trading Course 1.pdf
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Mark McRae - Sure Fire Forex Trading. pdf Mark Mcrae - Introduction To forex. pdf
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Monika Korzec - Forex Trading Get 20+ Pips per day using MMTS 2.0 www. korzec. ca
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Orville Saari - Forex trend trader (pdf ,51 page)
Pacific Investor Group - Inside The Forex Markets
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Profitable Forex Trading - A Beginners Guide mp3 + pdf
Quantum Globe - Forex Trading Strategy
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Rapidforex 13 ebooks + 1 video
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Realtime Forex Online Tutorial Free http://www. realtimeforex. com/
Rob Waltons FX Wizard
Scalping The E-mini, Futures & Forex www. wattstrading. com
Schueref, Heuscher - GBP - USD Trading System. pdf 328KB
Steve Hoven - The Simple Forex System simpleforex. com
Sure Fire Forex www. surefire-forex-trading. com
The Amazing Stealth Forex Trading System http://www. stealthforex. com
Trading For a Living In Forex Market http://tradingintl. com
Zoran Kolundzic - Forex Trading Course
Nasir Yacob - Kuasa Forex + Metatrader Expert Advisor (B. Malaysia)
Fadzley - Rahsia Forex (B. Malaysia)
First 4 Forex divx video course first4forex. info
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Dar Wong - Spotting A Day Profit of 100K in Financial Market
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Nathan Pennington - Winning Forex Trading - THE Definitive Guide http://www. winningforextrading. com
Uday Jadhav & Girish Joshi - Forex Essentials http://www. forextradingsystems. net
WT McWilliams - Market Turn Strategy Market Turn Strategy. com
Affluent-Desktop-Currency-Trader. pdf http://www. webkept. com/ Kiss Trading System http://www. kissfutures. com www. betonmarkets. tv DOW TS4 SYSTEM www. elmtrader. co. uk The Best Intraday Forex Trading System EVER "http://www. forex-uncovered. co. uk How To Easily Trade Your Way To An Income For Life http://www. profitsyes. com/ BRAINTRADING SOFTWARE www. braintrading. com Cilvur. com System 51 FX News The Edge System www. rightangletrading. com JM HURST - Cycle Trading Using Fibinacci Ratios to Forecast Price and Time www. moneymakingforex. com Darren Chabluk - Dr Dinar Report http://drdinar. com
Alan Farlay - Targeting Profitable Entry & Exit Points. pdf Alan Farley - Pattern Cycles. pdf Chris Johnson - ETF Trading Tools. pdf CMT Mike Rocca - Commodities. pdf CMT Rob Kepler - Fixed Income. pdf CMT William Dale - Foreign Exchange. pdf David Lerman - CME E-mini Options Volatility and Tradind Strategies. pdf David Nassar - A Simple Approach To Trading. pdf David Nassar - Day Trading 101.pdf David Nassar - Day Trading Smart. pdf David Nassar - The Amazing Power of Foundational Analysis. pdf David Stendahl - Dynamic Trading Indicators. pdf Day trading Basket Stocks. pdf Deron Wagner - Sector Trading Strategies. pdf Ed Downs - Powerful Chart Patterns that Consistently Make Money. pdf Ed Downs - Trading the Moves. pdf Ernie Zerenner - Covered Call Writing. pdf George Kleinman - Trading Rules to Live. pdf Greg Capra - Intra-Day Trading Techniques. pdf Jack Schwager - Guide to Winning with Automted Trading Systems. pdf Jake Bernstein - Timming Short Term Price Swings in S&P. pdf James Bittman - Advanced Strategies For Option Trading Success. pdf James Bittman - An Introduction to Options Trading Success. pdf James Bittman - Index Options. pdf James Bittman - Investing with LEAPS. pdf Jea Yu - Beating The Bear. pdf Jeff Cooper - Intr-Day trading Strategies. pdf John Clayburg - Pinpointing Entry & Exit Points. pdf John Murphy - High Probrarbility Chart REading. pdf John Murphy - Intermarket Analysis. pdf John Murphy - Mastering High Probability Chart reading Methods. pdf Jon Najarian - LEAPS Strategies. pdf Kenneth Tower - Introduction to Point & Figure and Candle Charting. pdf Larry Bernman - Incorporating Technical with Fundamentals. pdf Larry McMillan - New Option Strategy Course Manual. pdf Lawrence Cavanagh - Finding Spreading Opportunities. pdf Lawrence McMillan - AvoidingOption trading Traps. pdf Lawrence McMillan - Should You Speculate Or Hedge. pdf Marc Allaire - Options strategies. pdf Mark Cook - Staying Alive. pdf Marthy Kearney - LEAPs for the Experienced Trader. pdf Martin Pring - Technical Analysis for Short-Term Traders. pdf Max Ansbacher - Insider Strategies for Profiting With Options. pdf Michael Jardine - New Frontiers in Fibonacci Trading. pdf Michael Smith - Effective Short Selling. pdf Mike McMahon - Nasdaq Level 2 Trading Strategies. pdf Oliver Velez - Core Trading For a Living. pdf Oliver Velez - Guerrilla Trading Tactics. pdf Oliver Velez - Micro Trading Tactics. pdf Oliver Velez - Options Trading The Pristine Way. pdf Oliver Velez - Swing Trading. pdf Optionetics - Bull Call Spread. pdf Optionetics - High Profit - Low Risk trading. pdf Point and Figure Charting. pdf Price Headley - High Impact Options Trading Option Profits Through Superior Stock Selection. pdf Price Headley - Profiting From Big trends. pdf Ralph Acampora - Introduction To Technical Analysis. pdf Robert Deel - The Intelligent Online Trader. pdf Robert Precher - Elliott Wave Priciple. pdf Russell Wasendorf - Trading Stock Index Futures Online. pdf Sheldon Natenberg - Undersanding Votalility. pdf Steve Nison - Candlestick Charting Basics. pdf Steven Poser - Elliott Wave. pdf Ted Tesser - The New Tax Act of 2001.pdf Tim Cho - Developing a Winning System for Trading High-Performance Stocks. pdf Toni Turner - A Beginner's Guide to short Selling. pdf Toni Turner - The Profitable Trading Attitude. pdf Tonny Ciccone - high Probability Option Spreads. pdf Tony Oz - Day Trading Wizard. pdf Volume, Trend and Momentum. pdf Willaim McLaren - How to Find the Start of fast Moves in All Markets. pdf Zacks Investment Research - Earning Estimate Revision A Successful Strategy For All Markets. pdf
Comercio
- Trading gives us lessons not only about what to do or not to do next time in a trade, but also life lessons about personality traits that could improve the rest of our lives too - if we are willing to work on them
All through time, people have basically acted the same way in the market as a result of greed, fear, ignorance and hope - that is why the numerical formations and patterns recur on a constant basis.
- What does your trading journal look like - or do you not have one? It is critical to keep a trading journal. Yet statistics show that 97% of people do not have written goals, so why would a written journal be much different?
- It's not about trading EVERY day, it's about trading that ONE RIGHT DAY. You make money by waiting, not by trading. Sounds so silly nobody wants to believe it, but it's true
- Patience. Let the market come to you
- I would rather miss a good trade then be in a bad one.
- The 90% problem: Over 90% of traders focus over 90% of their efforts into tweaking indicators, of which over 90% use some form of a moving average, and over 90% use the close price as their only input data. Not only that, but over 90% of traders don't really understand how the indicators they are tweaking work. Should it be any wonder that over 90% of traders fail?
- If you use more indicators than articles of clothing you wear on an average day, then something's wrong with your trading.
- A primary rule to achieving success in trading is that you have to have a plan. If you want to succeed as a trader you have to have a clearly defined plan and you absolutely cannot break your rules under any circumstances
- Very important principle that all professional traders live by and amateurs ignore. If you focus on handling losses, profits will take care of themselves
- Never buy into motion. The reason is you see the motion and get excited and buy/sell and then want to decide what the plan should be. You must allready have a plan before you open a position
- "I'd rather be "out" of a trade and wishing I was "in" than "in" a trade and wishing I was "out"
Forex is a risky business. You will lose money. There is no perfect system. You cannot, ever, predict the market. Your emotions will get involved as trades move up and down There is no such thing as bad margin as a universal law The market isn't moved by rational reasons More information will not necessarily help you become a profitable trader What we see on the charts -- the market -- is simply a reflection of our own beliefs about the market.
Do One Thing Right
Traders do better when they try to do one thing perfectly right. Traders do worse when they spread themselves too thin, between many indicators, financial instruments, time frames, and trading systems.
Do less. Focus more. You'll do everything better.
It doesn't matter how often you are right or wrong - it only matters how much you make when you are right versus how much you lose when you are wrong.
VIDA
Our lives are not determined by what happens to us, but by how we react to what happens; not by what life brings to us, but by the attitude we bring to life.
Semua hal yang berharga dalam hidup kita gratis apa adanya: pikiran, jiwa, badan, harapan, impian, ambisi, kepintaran, cinta terhadap keluarga, anak dan negara, semua milik kita yang tak ternilai, cirinya: gratis!
Success is not the key to happiness. Happiness is the key to success. If you love what you are doing, you will be successful
- Yesterday is so far in the past I can't see it; tomorrow is too distant in the future to be seen. So I'll take a good look at what I can see - TODAY
- Life is a puzzle consists of simple pieces. Find the right ones & make beautiful pic out of them
If you see this lady turning in clockwise you are using your right brain. If you see it the other way, you are using left brain.
Some people do see both ways, but most people see it only one way. If you try to see it the other way and if you do see, your IQ is above 160 which is almost a genius
TradeStation Indicators
Trade Station BWT Precision Indicators
The BWT Precision Trend indicators are available for the Trade Station Trading Platform current version. The BWT indicators for Trade Station gives you the same clean, clear format and BWT “look”. Used by retail, professional and commercial traders for stocks, commodities, futures, ETFs, CFDs, Forex and Options – day trading, swing trading and position trading systems.
BWT Trade Station Indicator Pack Contents
BWT Precision Trend
BWT Precision CCI
BWT Precision Oscillator
BWT BBand Oscillator
BWT Precision MA
BWT Natural Bands
BWT Parabolic
BWT Precision Trend Algo Credibility
The credibility of this trend following and reversal indicator used in the BWT Precision AutoTrader can be seen for yourself in the testimonials – but even more credible is the fact that it is used as the core algorithm by our professional trader in the Trading signals service and live trading account realtime performance stats as well as signals are available to subscribers.
BWT Trade Station Indicator Pack Pricing & Purchasing
Includes 1 to 1 Teamviewer and remote control installation and Turnkey Setup
Includes 1 hour Skype Mentoring, Support with veteran trader, system designer & BWT developer Randy Sarrow
Includes unlimited Help Desk Access, training resources, technical support and settings for your trade plan
The license is for ONE computer, each additional PC is 10% off of the regular purchase price – please contact us to arrange.
Please visit the Frequently Asked Questions page for more details about BWT trading products
Licensing Terms
Training & Apoyo
1 to 1 Live Skype, Telephone, Remote Assistance, Help Desk – training & support – is provided by System Developer and trader Randy Sarrow.
U. S. Government Required Disclaimer
Commodity Futures Trading Comisión. Los futuros, las opciones y el comercio de divisas al contado tienen grandes recompensas potenciales, pero también un gran riesgo potencial. Debe ser consciente de los riesgos y estar dispuesto a aceptarlos para invertir en los mercados de futuros y opciones. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose. Este sitio web no es una solicitud ni una oferta de compra / venta de futuros u opciones. No se ha hecho ninguna representación de que cualquier cuenta tenga o sea probable obtener ganancias o pérdidas similares a las discutidas en este sitio web. El desempeño pasado de cualquier sistema o metodología comercial no es necesariamente indicativo de resultados futuros.
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LOS RESULTADOS DE RENDIMIENTO HIPOTÉTICOS O SIMULADOS TIENEN CIERTAS LIMITACIONES. DESCONOCIDO UN REGISTRO DE RENDIMIENTO REAL, LOS RESULTADOS SIMULADOS NO REPRESENTAN COMERCIO REAL. TAMBIÉN, DADO QUE LOS COMERCIOS NO HAN SIDO EJECUTADOS, LOS RESULTADOS PUEDEN TENERSE COMPARTIDOS POR EL IMPACTO, SI CUALQUIERA, DE CIERTOS FACTORES DE MERCADO, COMO LA FALTA DE LIQUIDEZ. LOS PROGRAMAS DE COMERCIO SIMULADOS EN GENERAL ESTÁN SUJETOS AL FACTOR DE QUE SEAN DISEÑADOS CON EL BENEFICIO DE HINDSIGHT. NO SE HACE NINGUNA REPRESENTACIÓN QUE CUALQUIER CUENTA TENDRÁ O ES POSIBLE PARA LOGRAR GANANCIAS O PÉRDIDAS SIMILARES A LOS MOSTRADOS.
El comercio de futuros contiene un riesgo sustancial y no es para todos los inversores. Un inversionista podría perder todo o más de la inversión inicial. Capital de riesgo es el dinero que se puede perder sin poner en peligro la seguridad financiera o el estilo de vida. Sólo el capital de riesgo debe ser utilizado para el comercio y sólo aquellos con suficiente capital de riesgo deben considerar la negociación. El rendimiento pasado no es necesariamente indicativa de resultados futuros.
Los resultados hipotéticos de rendimiento tienen muchas limitaciones inherentes, algunas de las cuales se describen a continuación. No se hace ninguna representación de que cualquier cuenta tenga o sea probable obtener ganancias o pérdidas similares a las mostradas. De hecho, hay frecuentemente fuertes diferencias entre los resultados de rendimiento hipotético y los resultados reales logrados posteriormente por cualquier programa de comercio en particular. Una de las limitaciones de los resultados de rendimiento hipotético es que generalmente se preparan con el beneficio de la retrospección. Además, el comercio hipotético no implica riesgo financiero, y ningún registro de operaciones hipotético puede explicar completamente el impacto del riesgo financiero en la negociación real. Por ejemplo, la capacidad de soportar las pérdidas o adherirse a un programa de comercio particular a pesar de las pérdidas comerciales son puntos importantes que también pueden afectar adversamente los resultados comerciales reales. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.
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Europe, and more specifically the United Kingdom, is the cradle of modern vegetarianism. Before being called “vegetarianism”, the practice of abstaining from the consumption of meat and the flesh of other slaughtered animals was called the “Pythagorean diet”, in the name of the famous Greek mathematician and philosopher who lived from about 570 to about 495 BC. The earliest practices of vegetarianism as a concept concerning an eloquent number of people can be found in ancient India. the vegetarian diet was strongly linked to the idea of benevolence, the respect for life and the avoidance of violence toward animals (called ahimsa in India) and it was spread by religious groups and philosophers. Vegetarianism then reemerged in Europe during the Renaissance, evolved in the 17 th century and continued to be spread in the 18 th century. In Great Britain, a lot of food such as meat, fruits and vegetables, tea etc. were reserved to the upper class only. poorer people could not access those expensive commodities. Therefore, the new interest of British people for vegetarianism was not necessarily linked to the protection of animals yet but to the fact that the great majority of people did not have enough money to get copious meals. But for several other people, vegetarianism was linked to ethical and moral ideas; or to health and medical reasons.
• Vegetarianism and romanticism
Vegetarianism was rising during the 18 th century thanks to the Romanticism movement in western Europe and particularly in Great Britain. The meatless diet was really widespread at the age of Enlightenment when society was changing and new humanist ideas began to develop. Several romantic writers promoted vegetarianism because of their compassion and their deep relationship to Nature. they denounced the consumption of meat as a inhumane and monstrous thing. They had negative ideas about the industrialisation and consumerism that regulated the economy. Therefore, the rising costs of the meat, the agricultural changes and the emerging humanist values encouraged more and more people as well as romantic writers to follow a vegetarian diet. Among the romantics, Thomas Tryon, Alexander Pope, Joseph Ritson and Percy B. Shelley were the most emblematic vegetarians. Thomas Tryon was an English merchant who early advocated vegetarianism after having heard an inner voice that he called the “Voice of Wisdom” in 1657. He inspired Benjamin Franklin to adopt the same lifestyle. Tryon strongly opposed violence against animals so his vegetarianism was linked to his belief in spiritual progress (he was influenced by Pythagoras and his religious views). He first adopted that diet at the age of 23, saying that he only drank water and ate bread, some vegetables, butter and cheese. In his autobiography Some Memoirs of the Life of Mr. Thomas Tryon, late of London, Merchant. Written by himself published posthumously in London in 1705, he argued.
“It is a grand mistake of people in this age to say or suppose: That Flesh affords not only a stronger nourishment, but also more and better than Herbs, Grains, &c.; for the truth is, it does yield more stimulation, but not of so firm a substance, nor so good as that which proceeds from the other food; for flesh has more matter for corruption, and nothing so soon turns to putrefaction. Now, ’tis certain, such sorts of food as are subject to putrify before they are eaten, are also liable to the same afterwards. Besides, Flesh is of soft, moist, gross, phlegmy quality, and generates a nourishment of a like nature; thirdly, Flesh heats the body, and causeth a drought; fourthly, Flesh does breed a great store of noxious humours; fifthly, it must be considered that ‘beasts’ and other living creatures are subject to diseases and many other inconveniences, and uncleanness, surfeits, over-driving, abuses of cruel butchers, &c. which renders their flesh still more unwholesome. But on the contrary, all sorts of dry foods, as Bread, Cheese, Herbs, and many preparations of Milk, Pulses, Grains, and Fruits; as their original is more clean, so, being of a sound firm nature, they afford a more excellent nourishment, and more easy of concoction; so that if a man should exceed in quantity, the Health will not, thereby, be brought into such danger as by the superfluous eating of flesh.”
Thomas Tryon died in 1703. He was, hence, one of the precursors to advocate vegetarianism in the early 18 th century.
Like Tryon, Alexander Pope thought that meat consumption was linked to man’s desire for superiority. He was an English poet, very famous for his translation of Homer and poems such as “An Essay on Criticism” and “The Rape of the Lock”. He was a fervent defender of vegetarianism as he considered the slaughter of animals as a “tyranny” so the vegetarian diet was a way to rebel against the Enlightenment modern ideas. Moreover, he came from a Catholic family so he was affected by the anti-catholic measures of the time and the Test Acts which was aimed at maintaining the established Church of England and banned the Catholics from teaching, studying, voting, etc. He published an essay entitled “Against Barbarity to Animals” in The Gardian in 1713, in which he declared.
“Nothing can be more shocking and horrid than one of our kitchens sprinkled with blood, and abounding with the cries of expiring victims, or with the limbs of dead animals scattered or hung up here and there. It gives one the image of a giant’s den in a romance, bestrewed with scattered heads and mangled limbs.”
For Joseph Ritson, besides Tryon and Pope’s reasons, vegetarianism was also seen as means to avoid health problems. He was an English antiquary and one of the most radical vegetarian. He wrote an essay entitled An essay on Abstinence from Animal Food, as a Moral Duty published in 1802, in which he asserted that vegetarianism would cure any human disease or medical illness. He became vegetarian at the age of nineteen after reading Mandeville’s Fable. He strongly criticized the cruelty of killing animals and the effects that it produced on humans. In his essay, Ritson argued that “the use of animal food disposes man to cruel and ferocious actions.” Moreover, he was anticlerical so he was against religion and most particularly against Christianity. He often linked the fact of eating animals’ meat to cannibalism. eating human flesh was an inevitable consequence of eating animal flesh.
The engraving is a caricature of Joseph Ritson made by James Sayers in 1803. On the top shelf, next to the cat, we can see a copy of Ritson’s Essay on Abstinence from Animal Food
Percy B. Shelley was another major English Romantic poet who shared most of his ideas on vegetarianism with those of Ritson. He wrote several essays on the subject of vegetarianism, the most famous ones being “A Vindication of Natural Diet” (1813) and “On the Vegetable System of Diet”. Even in his famous poem of 1813 entitled Queen Mab . Shelley wrote about the change to a vegetarian diet: “And man … no longer now/ He slays the lamb that looks him in the face,/ And horribly devours his mangled flesh.” His vegetarianism can be explained by the fact that he struggled for the rights of animals after witnessing varied mistreatments towards animals and many slaughters. He agreed with Joseph Ritson on many points and he used his book to defend his integrity and vegetarianism. Shelley wanted his children to follow a vegetarian diet too, but it caused him several problems with judges after his wife committed suicide. He considered the vegetarian diet man’s natural diet which would preserve health and prevent from diseases. For him, following a vegetarian diet would lead to the end of social injustices such as poverty, crime, aggression, capitalism and war. In “A Vindication of Natural Diet”, Shelly made an allegory between vegetarianism and the Creation myth, saying “The allegory of Adam and Eve eating of the tree of evil, and entailing upon their posterity the wrath of God, and the loss of everlasting life, admits of no other explanation, than the disease and crime that have flowed from unnatural diet.”
Through the emblematic vegetarian figures of Tryon, Pope, Ritson and Shelley, we can link Vegetarianism with Romanticism from the 18 th century to the 19 th century, influenced by humanist views and the age of Enlightenment (with the realisation that animals too could communicate, feel pain, and even feel emotion). These writers found the consumption of the animal flesh unnatural and barbaric. It was also a way to rebel against the consumerist market that evolved in the 18 th century. Indeed, more varieties of vegetables became available so practicing a meatless diet became much easier. In Joseph Ritson, Percy Shelley and the Making of Romantic Vegetarianism . an essay published in 2006, Timothy Morton asserts.
“The end of A Vindication alludes to Ritson on Pythagoras: ‘never take anything into the stomach that once had life’. Ritson’s Pythagoras shines through Shelley’s prose. Shelley marked the following passage: ‘the Samian philosopher, a man of universal knowledge, who flourish’d about 500 years before Christ, forbad to kil, much more to eat, liveing creatures, that had the same prerogative of souls with ourselves: and ate nothing himself that had had life. The truth is, he enjoin’d men not to eat of things that had life, but to accustom themselves to meats that were easeyly prepare’d, quickly at hand, and soongot ready without the help of fire
• Vegetarianism as a solution to obesity. a diet based on temperance
Since the 17 th century and during the 18 th century too, vegetarianism rose in England as a treatment for obesity for the wealthy people who consumed a lot of meat during their mealtime. People began to see vegetarianism as a solution to avoid obesity, thinking that it would reduce the risks of cardiovascular and heart diseases. One of the most famous 18 th century obese who advocated vegetarianism was Dr George Cheyne (1671-1743). He was a physician, a mathematician and a philosopher born in Scotland. He is very well known for his contribution to vegetarianism. He was a popular figure who suffered from obesity because of the quantity of food and drink he consumed, which caused him several health problems. To counter them, he started a vegetarian diet composed of milk and vegetables only. It helped him to recover health but as soon as he stopped his meatless regimen, his health deteriorated again so he decided to follow a strict vegetarian diet for a lifetime
Portrait of George Cheyne made by John Faber Jr in 1732
George Cheyne was against gluttony and luxury and he claimed for temperance (especially concerning meal time) as we can read in his Essay on the Gout of 1720. Morale and religious motives were also linked to the medical reasons to follow a vegetarian diet. He often frequented taverns and dining-rooms looking for new clients but it played a big role on the deterioration of his weight. Therefore, after becoming obese, he decided to go to Bath to follow a dietary therapy and where he first acknowledged vegetarianism with a high consumption of milk. As by the early 1720s he could scarcely walk, he was obliged to follow a harsh vegetarian regimen. In 1724, his Essay of Health and Long Life was published, making him be much more famous. A great deal of the essay concerned evacuations and diet, through vegetarianism that he presented as an ideal more than a lifestyle at the time. That diet was based on moderation, with the consumption of white meat, vegetables and water mostly.
His several of his works Cheyne gave dietary advice with more and more religious concerns, as in the English Malady (1733). According to him, a meatless regimen only composed of milk and vegetables would return corrupted people to purity. That arguments are more and more present in his other works. the Essay on Regimen (1740) and The Natural Method of Cureing the Diseases of the Body, and the Disorders of the Mind Depending on the Body (1742).
Here is an extract from another essay entitled Essay on Regimen. together with Five Discourses Medical Moral and Philosophical, &c of 1740, more focused on the treatments toward animals :
“ The question I design to treat of here is, whether animal or vegetable food was, in the original design of the Creator, intended for the food of animals, and particularly of the human race. And I am almost convinced it never was intended, but only permitted as a curse or punishment. At what time animal [flesh] food came first in use is not certainly known. He was a bold man who made the first experiment.
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To see the convulsions, agonies, and tortures of a poor fellow-creature, whom they cannot restore nor recompense, dying to gratify luxury, and tickle callous and rank organs, must require a rocky heart, and a great degree of cruelty and ferocity. I cannot find any difference, on the foot of natural reason and equity only, between feeding on human flesh and feeding on brute animal flesh, except custom and example.
I believe some [more] rational creatures would suffer less in being fairly butchered than a strong Ox or red Deer; and, I natural morality and justice, the degrees of pain here make the essential difference, for as to other differences, they are relative only, and can be of no influence with an infinitely perfect Being. Did we not use and example weaken this lesson, and make the difference, reason alone could never do it. "
• The care for animals and the political activism linked to vegetarianism
One main focus of the 18 th century vegetarianism was the inhumanity linked to the consumption of meat. there was a sort of “humans’ duty” towards animals but also towards people (as it was for the evangelical forms of Christianity). They claimed that making animals feel pain was a sin, as they were suffering as humans do. Vegetarianism became therefore inevitable to avoid causing pain to animals.
Also, vegetarianism was linked to slavery and the developing trade and industry between the British Empire and its colonies (in the Caribbean and in America mostly). Vegetarian people wanted to show their disapproval of slavery and of the mistreatments of people because of the color of their skin. It was a way for them to show their political commitment. Even Dr George Cheyne, in his Essay of Health and Long Life of 1724, showed that vegetarianism was also a way to take part in political activism by characterizing the “sensitive” (intelligent and imaginative people) in contrast to the eaters of Roast beef described as stupid and idiots; as we can see here in the painting of 1748 by William Hogarth :
The painting is about French and English people. Indeed, during his visit in France in 1748, Hogarth could see how the French did not eat well. He had a very low opinion of the French so that was a way for him to spread Britain’s wealth and power with the huge beef carried by a fat clergyman (in the middle of the painting) destined to an English inn located in the North of France. The clergy represents the absolute monarchy that starved the French people. By contrast, the English ate and thrived on their food. In its summary of the painting, Tate’s website adds. “To the left of the gate, framed by vegetables, sits Hogarth himself. As he sketches the drawbridge, the arresting officer’s hand clasps his shoulder.” Therefore, thanks to the representations of meat and vegetables, Hogarth showed in his painting how politically active he was and what he thought of the western Europe societies.
– Cheyne, George. An Essay of Health and Long Life . London, 1724.
– Cheyne, George. The English malady. or, A treatise of nervous diseases of all kinds, as spleen, vapours, lowness of spirits, hypochondriacal, and hysterical distempers, etc . London, 1733.
– Cheyne, George. The natural method of curing the diseases of the body and the disorders of the mind, depending on the body . London, 1742.
– Ritson, Joseph. An essay on abstinence from animal food, as a moral duty . London, 1802.
– Spencer, Colin. The Heretic’s Feat. A History of Vegetarianism . London, 1993.
– Guerrini, Anita. “A Diet for a Sensitive Soul: Vegetarianism in Eighteenth-Century Britain.” Eighteenth-Century Life . Volume 23, Number 2 (May 1999). 34-42
– Puskar-Pasewicz, Margaret. Cultural Encyclopedia of Vegetarianism. Santa Barbara, California, 2010
– Morton, Timothy. “Joseph Ritson, Percy Shelley and the Making of Romantic Vegetarianism.” Romanticism 12.1 (2006). 52-61
Britain in the eighteenth century witnessed “a release of the libido” (Lawrence Stone, 327) due to the Enlightenment’s idea of the pursuit of happiness which made of sexual expression, pleasure and passion essential elements of life. During the eighteenth century contraception was mostly used by the aristocracy and the urban elite (Lawrence Stone, 263) and just like today contraceptive methods could be used by women and men, but did both sexes used contraceptives for the same reasons?
In the eighteenth century, women could have a lot of children – Queen Charlotte for instance had fifteen children with her husband King George III – and “the interval between births was between twenty-four and thirty months” (Lawrence Stone, 52). These repeated pregnancies were very dangerous and many women died giving birth. One of the methods used to space out pregnancies was breast-feeding. Indeed lactation has a contraceptive effect called “lactational amenorrhea” (Robert A. Hatcher and others, 407) because when breast-feeding, a woman has no menstruation and the ovulation is postponed which makes her infertile for some months. Nowadays this method is still used by some women but it is not as popular as it was during the eighteenth century as women are less aware of it and as it is a very restricting way of contraception. Well-fed women could profit from this temporary infertility for about six months and women suffering from malnutrition were infertile for about eighteen months (Lawrence Stone, 52). Moreover this post-natal infertility made it more difficult for women to conceive once the lactational amenorrhea was over which made of this birth control method a very popular one in the eighteenth century. Women were advised to breast-feed themselves their children by doctors so that breast-feeding became a sort of fashion (Lawrence Stone, 248). As we can see on the satirical print below, wealthy women no longer gave their children to wet nurses so that they could be seen topless and feeding their babies in their richest dresses which made of breastfeeding a more fashionable than maternal behavior.
Women could also buy medicines sold on London Markets; these recipes could be used as a contraceptive or for abortive purposes. But these methods were used by a minority only.
“If the party … would not conceive, take one paper of powders in a glass of warm ale, every morning after the man has been with her, and shall be out of danger.”
(Lawrence Stone, 266)
The will to space out pregnancies came also from men who wanted to prevent their wives from suffering or dying while giving birth and new sexual behaviors were adopted. Coitus interruptus, also called withdrawal, was the most used method. This method consisted of the withdrawal of the husband before ejaculation and is said to depend on “extraordinary measures of self-control” (Lawrence Stone, 262). It is even referred to in the Bible:
“And Judah said unto Onan, Go in unto thy brother’s wife, and marry her, and raise up seed to thy brother. And Onan knew that the seed should not be his; and it came to pass, when he went in unto his brother’s wife, that he spilled it on the ground, lest that he should give seed to his brother. And the thing which he did displeased the LORD: wherefore he slew him also.”
Though in the Bible Onan is punished for practicing coitus interruptus, in the eighteenth century because of “the collapse of moral Puritanism” which was at the origin of the released libido, the Bible had lost some of its strength and withdrawal was no longer seen as a sin (Lawrence Stone, 263). However the method is not completely effective. Indeed some semen always escapes from the Cowper’s glands before ejaculation, so that the risk of pregnancy still exists (Vern L. Bullough, 74).
One of the reasons for the development of contraception was economic, for upper classes had larger families than lower classes and the elite wanted to reduce births because of the cost of raising a child. The upper classes had enough money to raise their children but at the time a more child-orientated society developed and families started to limit the number of births because education was expensive and children did not always live long. The Reverend Ralph Josselin spent one third of is £160 a year on the education of his ten children but only five of them still lived when their parents died (Lawrence Stone, 264). It was to prevent this waste of money than families chose to have fewer children.
Other popular contraceptive methods called barrier devices were used by the upper classes. Among them were condoms. As we can see on the following picture, eighteenth century condoms were made of “sheep gut and were secured to the wearer at the base with a red ribbon, which was tied around the scrotum” (Lawrence Stone, 334).
In the eighteenth century condoms were not easy to purchase as they were mostly sold in big European Cities such as Paris and London (Lawrence Stone, 334). These devices were not only used as a contraceptive method, they actually were associated with vice because they were mostly used for “extra-marital affairs”, men used them as a protection against venereal deseases. In his Dictionary of the Vulgar Tongue. Francis Grose defined “cundum” as:
“The dried gut of the sheep, worn by men in the act of coition, to prevent venereal infection”. (Francis Grose)
And in 1776, a London advertizer described condoms as “implements of safety which secure the health of my customers” (Lawrence Stone, 266). Condoms could be used several times and men only had to wash them after each use (Vern L. Bullough, 82). On the caricature below we can see a women in a “condom warehouse” is blowing up a condom to make sure that it is not damaged and a man who appears to be a clergyman is blessing the newly frabricated condoms. A condom trade greatly developed in London during the century and was mostly owned by “a matron of the name of Philips” (Francis Grose) and Mrs Perkins (H. Youssef, 227).
( Quality control in condom warehouse, 1744 )
The Scottish lawyer James Boswell frequently had to use condoms because of his libertine way of life. His London Journal is the richest source of information on sex in the eighteenth century:
“At the bottom of the Haymarket I picked up a strong, jolly young damsel, and taking her under the arm I conducted her to Westminster Bridge, and then in armour complete did I engage her upon this noble edifice. The whim of doing it there with the Thames rolling below us amused me much.” (James Boswell, 255)
“…so I sallied the Streets and just at the bottom of our own, I picked up a fresh agreable young Girl called Alice Gibbs. We went down a lane to a snug place; and I took out my armour, but she begged that I might not put it on, as the sport was much pleasanter without it; and as she was quite safe. I was so rash as to trust her, and had a very agreable congress.” (James Boswell, 262)
He often met with prostitutes such as the “jolly young damsel” of the first extract and the “Alice Gibbs” of the second and he used these devices which he called “amour” to be protected from veneral deseases.
“BOSWELL. Madam, I have had no connection with any woman but you these two months. I was with my surgeon this morning, who declared I had got a strong infection, and that she from whom I had it could not be ignorant of it”.
(James Boswell, 149)
In 1763 James Boswell had a relationship with an actress named Louisa who gave him one of the numerous venereal diseases he had during the course of his life. Boswell did not think it was usefull to wear an “armour” with her but when he discovered she had transmitted him a desease she told she actualy had one three years before but that she no longer had any symptoms for several months and thought that it was cured.
Contraception in the eighteenth century became more common but mainly in families from the elite. People needed contraceptive methods to trim the size of families. To preserve their health women were advised not to have too many children and to space out pregnancies as much as possible. Men also wanted fewer children for economic reasons as raising a child cost a lot of money and they were not assured that the children they spent money for would survive. But men mostly used contraceptive method the preserve their own health as they tended to have mistresses and did not want to have venereal diseases and illegitimate children.
Bibliography – Planned Parenthood of America. “A History of Birth Control Methods” New York,
& # 8211; HATCHER Robert A. and others. Contraceptive Technology . 2009.
& # 8211; STONE, Lawrence. The Family, Sex and Marriage in the England1500 – 1800. London: Penguin Books, 1977.
& # 8211; MEYER SPACKS, Patricia. Privacy: Concealing the Eighteenth-Century Self. Chicago: University of Chicago, 2003.
& # 8211; BULLOUGH, Vern L. The Encyclopedia of Birth Control. Santa Barbara, CA: ABC CLIO, 2001.
& # 8211; BOSWELL, James. Boswell’s London Journal. New Haver, CT: Yale University Press, 1950.
& # 8211; YOUSSEF, H. “The History of the condom.” Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine . no. 86 (April 1993): 226-228.
& # 8211; GROSE, Francis. A Classical Dictionary of the Vulgar Tongue. London: Hooper and Wigstead, 1796.
& # 8211; Seductive fashions: the topless style and the cult of maternal breast-feeding. 1796 (Lawrence stone, 22 image) “The Fashionable Mamma, or The Convenience of Modern Dress” Caricature
& # 8211; ALLEN, Paul. Trigger Issues, One Small Item, One Giant Impact: Condom. Oxford, New Internationalist, 2007. Page 14.
& # 8211; HARVEY, A. D. Sex in Georgian England: Attitudes and Prejudices from the 1720s to the 1820s . London, Phoenix Press, 2001.
In this paper, we will be interested in the question of the female husbands in the eighteen century British society. More particularly, our focus point will be the Mary Hamilton case described by Fielding in his pamphlet The Female Husband, published in 1746. However, according to Sheridan Baker in Henry Fielding’s The Female Husband. Fact and Fiction, on page 213, the author modified some of the real facts. For example, Fielding shifted the male name from Charles Hamilton to George. Sheridan Baker also highlights some parallels between Fielding’s fictional characters and the way he wrote the discourse in the pamphlet. He speaks about the similarities between Mrs Rushford and Mary Price’s ways of speak. This fictional part of the pamphlet creates questions about the reality of the female husbands. So, we will picture the background from the artistic wold to the Fielding’s text to conclude by a representation of those women.
Cross-dressing. a notion of seduction
Cross dressing as used in theater since the sixteenth century because women were forbidden on stage. So, men had to dress as women to perform the plays. But, as it is mentioned on page 22 of A Lesbian History of Britain by Rebecca Jennings, in the eighteen century, women started to go on stage. And more than that, they dressed as men to play male roles. The reversal was a way to attract more public, women were a symbol of seduction even cross-dressed. Females were the embodiment of seduction and the cross-dressing made them even more attractive towards the audience. Rebecca Jennings developed the example of the actress. Margaret Woffington. She was a famous actress of the eighteen century Britain and was familiar with cross-dressing. It was an other way to approach the female beauty. It created a kind of mystery around the body because feminine attributes were hidden and bodies were shaped by the clothes to look as masculine as possible.
In 1739, Margaret Woffington played the role of Harry Wildair in Farquhar’s The Constant Couple.
Margaret as Harry Wildair
by William Hoare
Cross-dressing. an example of early feminism?
Males had the power in the eighteen century British society so we can think that if women dressed as men, it was a way for them to get a little of this masculine power. And it was the case. On Friday the 20th of November 1719, the newspaper the Free-Thinker published an article on «philifophizing upon the Nature of Coquetterie». The first paragraph is about the frontier between men and women and the idea that the limit between gender is not clear. He told the reader about «this bewitching Quality is as apparent even in Men» (The Free-Thinker, 1719, 1). It means that women acted in coquetterie and seduction as men did. There was a kind of shift in power. Then, later in the article, he gave the example of a woman called Angelica who was not well seen by society because she seduced men exactly in the way that a man could seduce a woman. Because of Coquetterie, men lost their control on the field of romance and seduction. But they still had this dominant place in the couple and upon society.
Cross-dressed women lived as men towards society so they get the same rights as men. They were free and had power but they were biologically women. So, as Rebecca Jennings on page 25, it was a certain kind of feminism. But it was seen as an offense by society. Cross-dressing was not officially considered as a crime but women living as men and who married an other women were accuse of stealing the woman’s goods. Once again, this is only a matter of power. They were accused only on a material basis, not the moral point of view. And power comes with money and at that time, women were not supposed to be financially independent from her husband. So, those women were attacked because they got more freedom than their initial place in society let them have.
So, the daily cross-dressing can be seen as a step towards feminism because it was a way for women to exist in the outside society and not only in the inside wold of their homes.
The Mary Hamilton case of 1746
In his pamphlet Female Husband, Henri Fielding exposed the cross-dressing case of Mary alias George Hamilton. In the introduction, he described Mary Hamilton as someone «who was convicted of having married a Young Woman of WELLS and lived with her as her husband» (Fielding, 1746, 2).
The first idea developed in the pamphlet is the criticism of homosexuality. This is the entire first paragraph of the second page. The argument that a woman as to be married to a man not only «for the continuance of the human fpecies» (Fielding, 1746, 3) but also because this is an attitude «directed by virtue and religion» (Fielding, 1746, 3) and this is the «moft rational felicity» (Fielding, 1746, 3). Those women’s behavior not only went against society but most important against the principals as fundamental as religion from which this same society came from.
He used very strong terms to depict the general situation of female husbands. According to Fielding «there is nothing monftrous and unnatural, which they are not capable of inventing. nothing fo brutal and fhocking which they have not actually committed» (Fielding, 1746, 3). This is on this exposed point of view that he started to tell the story of Mary alias George Hamilton. He first explained the education that Mary received as a chid. Telling that she was raised in the respect of her condition in the «principles of virtue and religion» (Fielding, 1746, 4). So, her mother did her best to prevent her daughter from vice but despite her efforts, Mary was guilty of «the moft abominable and unnatural pollutions» (Fielding, 1746, 3).
He followed the chronology of the events by telling her meeting with «Anne Johnfon a neighbour of hers» (Fielding, 1746, 4). Then came the description of the process in which their relationship evolved from friendship to a romantic relationship. He used testimonies from both women to reinforce the truth of the history and those letters were nothing less than love letters. But he did not mention love because according to his point of view, love can be between a man and his wife only. He pulled a moral from this story because at the very end, we learnt thatMary had been condemned to whipping and sent to prison. Fielding wrote. « The prifoner having been convicted of this bafe and fcandalous crime, was by the court fentenced to be publickly and feverely whipt four feveral times» (Fielding, 1746, 24).
We could even read a general warning towards the readers on the last page. «But it is to be hoped that this example will be fufficient to deter all others from commiffion of any fuch foul and unnatural crimes» (Fielding, 1746, 25). There was a moral conclusion to this history, trying to be a man when you were not was a crime which had to be hardly punished because each role had its own world and had to stay in.
But we can question the truthfulness of Mary Hamilton’s story because of the tittle of the pamphlet which is « The surprising history of Mary Hamilton» so the end could be darkened by Fielding to be used as a moral. Nonetheless, Ann Marrow, a female husband had be condemned for money fraud in 1777 because she had been accused to benefit from her wife’s money because she pretended to be a man to marry her. (Jennings, 2007, 34, and The Gentleman Magazine 5th of July 1777)
Here are two prints of Mary Read and Ann Bonny. They were pirates in the Bahamas during the 1720’s.
On this print, we can see that they are dressed as men but showing their female attributes.
They are using weapon so having the same status as male pirates.
On the second print, the women are represented breasts hidden. The only sign of femininity are their long hair. They were a real case of daily cross-dressing.
Science Blogs
The 21st Century Cures Act: Familiar old promises that we'll have all sorts of new cures if only the FDA would stop being so pesky about requiring rigorous evidence of efficacy and safety before approving a drug.
The approval of new drugs and medical devices is a process fraught with scientific, political, and ethical landmines. Inherent in any such process is an unavoidable conflict between rigorous science and safety on the one side, which tend to slow the process down by requiring large randomized clinical trials that can take years, versus forces that demand faster approval. For example, patients suffering from deadly diseases demand faster approval of drugs that might give them the hope of surviving their disease, or at least of surviving considerably longer. This is a powerful force for reform, as evidenced by HIV/AIDS activism in the 1980s and 1990s that led to the development of fast-track approval mechanisms for drugs for life-threatening conditions, a change whose effects have been mixed. It’s also a powerful force potentially for ill, as I’ve documented in my posts about the understandable but misguided “right-to-try” movimiento. After all, what politician can say no to a constituency representing desperately ill people who only want a shot at survival? It’s not all desperate patients, however. Also wanting more rapid drug approval are powerful business interests in the form of the pharmaceutical and medical device industries, for whom the time and expense of prolonged clinical trials eat into profits and make some drugs not worth developing from a business standpoint.
In 1962, after Frances O. Kelsey, MD, PhD (who unfortunately died a week ago at the age of 101 ) successfully prevented the approval of the drug thalidomide in the US, a drug found to cause serious birth defects, Congress passed the Kefauver-Harris Drug Amendments to the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act. These amendments required that drug companies not just show safety before their drugs could be FDA-approved, as had been the case prior to the amendments, but also to provide substantial evidence of effectiveness for the product’s intended use. That evidence had to be in the form of adequate and well-controlled clinical trials, which at the time was considered a revolutionary requirement. (Believe it or not, no requirement for high quality clinical trials existed before 1962.) This led to the current system of phase I, II, III, and IV clinical trials in force in the United States today. The amendments also included a requirement for informed consent of study subjects and codified good manufacturing processes, as well as the requirement that adverse events be reported. This has been, with some tweaking over the years, the law of the land regarding how the FDA approves drugs for specific indications
Medicine is a lot more complex now than it was in the 1960s however, and there has been a growing sentiment that the system is, if not broken, at least functioning in a way that is behind the times, a manner that was acceptable and appropriate 40 years ago but is no longer so in this era of genomics, precision medicine (formerly known as “personalized medicine”), and targeted therapies. The new drug approval process, which can take up to a decade and cost a billion dollars, it is argued, is too rigid, cumbersome, and slow for the 21st century. (Why it wasn’t too rigid, cumbersome, and slow in the 20th century, no one seems to say. I guess that “21st century” sounds way cooler.)
Into this ongoing controversy have marched Rep. Fred Upton (R-Mich.) and Rep. Diana DeGette (D-Colo.), who have sponsored a bill passed by the House of Representatives in a rare display of bipartisanship in July. The bill, H. R.6, is entitled the “21st Century Cures Act “. Given how it passed the House by a vote of 344-77, one would think that it should glide through the Senate easily. Certainly, its sponsors and supporters have mounted a mighty PR effort. That might not be the case, given that in the Senate a single senator can hold up or even kill a bill through a filibuster, and to shut down a filibuster or prevent a threatened filibuster requires 60 votes. Be that as it may, I’m not so much interested in the politics of this bill, which, if it survives the Senate, will almost certainly be significantly amended, but rather what the bill does.
I’ve been meaning to write about the 21st Century Cures Act since I first read about it in a news report a few months ago. As with most bills, there’s some good, there’s some bad, and there’s some ugly. Do the bad and the ugly outweigh the good? Sadly, they do. The 21st Century Cures act is nothing more than the old, vinegary wine of promises that deregulation will deliver us cures to diseases made for years by libertarians looking to weaken the FDA in a sexy-looking new bottle wrapped in “precision medicine.” Let’s take a look.
21st century cures: The (somewhat) good
Perhaps the best thing about this bill is that it increases the budget of the National Institutes of Health (NIH). Achieving agreement on this was not easy. as many Republicans oppose any sort of “expansion” of government, and the overall zeitgeist in Congress is to slash, not increase funding (except, of course, for the military). First, the bill mandates a 3% real increase in the NIH budget per year for the next three years. Second, it provides an additional $1.86 billion a year in the form of an “innovation” fund that would primarily support young scientists and precision medicine. Those of us who run laboratories competing for NIH research funding know that the NIH budget has been, in essence, frozen for nearly a decade now. The tiny increases that have been approved have not been enough to keep up with inflation, leading to a 20% decline in the NIH budget in inflation-adjusted dollars since 2003 with a concomitant decline in the number of the R01-equivalent grants (the R01 is the gold standard, multi-year grant that every NIH-funded researcher strives for) of 30%. In 2013, the sequestration added insult to injury with a disastrous additional effect on the NIH budget.
This decline in funding and opportunity for R01 grants, which give labs stability, has led to great concern that the leadership of the US in biomedical sciences will be eroded irreparably. In the “trenches” (where I am), the mood is very, very gloomy, with scientists expressing increasing degrees of despair and pessimism and NIH director Francis Collins warning that budget cuts put US science at risk and that China and other countries will soon surpass us. In particular, it is definitely not a good time to be a researcher in medical academia, particularly if you are a young investigator whose application for tenure depends upon being awarded NIH or NIH-equivalent funding. The addition of more money to the NIH budget and a fund, part of which will be targeted to young investigators, can only help that.
As for the fund for precision medicine research, I’m of a mixed mind about this. There is no doubt that this is arguably the most exciting time in history to be in biomedical research, which is why the dearth of NIH funding makes it simultaneously the most frustrating time in history to be in biomedical research. We finally have the tools to delve the depths of the mysteries of the genome and use the information to design better treatments for cancer and a wide variety of other diseases, but we lack the resources to use them. It’s like owning a brand new Maserati but there’s no gasoline to be found to drive it, or maybe having the biggest, baddest car of all in the world of Mad Max but having to fight for precious gasoline to run it.
That being said, I also think that precision medicine has been hyped far beyond what it could ever possibly deliver. Definitely, with President Obama’s new precision medicine initiative, precision medicine is the buzzword everyone likes to use. It’s often sold in near-miraculous terms about what it will do, in much the same way the human genome project was sold in similar terms in the 1990s, just as the “war on cancer” was sold in the early 1970s. Results didn’t match the hype, which is why on the tenth anniversary of the publication of the human genome and the 40th anniversary of the “war on cancer,” we saw articles declaring both “failures”. I’m guessing that every five or ten year anniversary after this, we’ll see similar articles. I can’t wait to see the disappointed and pessimistic articles about the “war on cancer” in 2021, its 50th anniversary. I’m being facetious, but for a serious purpose: Precision medicine can’t possibly live up to the hype. That doesn’t mean I don’t consider it a promising avenue, but I have no reason to expect that progress in precision medicine will be anything other than incremental. Maybe it will be faster than in pre-precision medicine days, but it will be incremental nonetheless. Besides, all the real hype has moved on to immunologic therapies of cancer, which, if you believe Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center president Dr. Gary Gilliland, who declared that cancer is “running scared” and that, thanks to new immunologic therapies, “it is actually plausible that in 10 years we will have cures and therapies for most, if not all, human cancers.”
Yes, I’m being a bit sarcastic, but if you want to see skeptical takes on precision medicine, I recommend a recent op-eds by Michael Joyner in the New York Times about “moonshot medicine,” Rita Rubin in JAMA declaring precision medicine to be more about politics, Cynthia Graber in The New Yorker. and Ronald Bayer and Sandro Galea in the most recent New England Journal of Medicine. Basically, the number of conditions whose outcome can be greatly affected by targeting specific mutations is relatively small, far smaller than the impact likely would be from duller, less “sexy” interventions, such as figuring out how to get people to lose weight, exercise more, and drink and smoke less. I remember how in the 1990s Judah Folkman’s work targeting tumor angiogenesis was touted as a “silver bullet” to treat cancer in just the way cardiologist Eric Topol is quoted by Rita Rubin in JAMA as saying about precision medicine:
The science is catapulting forward. You can now come up with so much big data on each individual, and it is changing medicine.
“However, it’s not just about the sequence,” Topol added. “That’s just one layer of the information. If you really want to change medicine, youhave to have all the information on the individual.” That includes their environment, the bacteria in their gut, and other distinguishing characteristics, he said.
The problem is whether focusing in the genetic underpinnings of disease will provide the “most bang for the buck,” given how difficult and expensive targeted drugs are to develop. However, if getting some money for precision medicine is the price for an increase in the overall budget of the NIH and funneling more funding to young researchers, I’m willing to pay it. My preceding passages aside, I’m actually optimistic about the potential of precision medicine; I just don’t think that it will result in Star Trek-like treatments any time soon. (I remember several other “cures for cancer” touted during my professional lifetime that weren’t.) I’m just more cautious in my optimism, as I pointed out when I answered the question, “Why haven’t we cured cancer yet? & # 8221;
There are other bits of “good” in the bill, such as a provision making deidentified data from NIH-funded clinical trials more easily available to researchers and facilitating collaborative research. speeding up the review of new vaccines by the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices, requiring a strategic plan every five years to identify research opportunities and strategic focus areas, reducing administrative burdens on researchers, and limiting the term of office of directors of centers and institutes to five years (with reappointment by the NIH director possible). The act also requires the directors of each institute to “establish programs to conduct or support research projects that pursue innovative approaches to major contemporary challenges in biomedical research that involve inherent high risk, but have the potential to lead to breakthroughs” and “set aside a specific percentage of funding, to be determined by the Director of NIH for each national research institute, for such projects.” I’ve been a bit skeptical of such initiatives in the past, and such orders have gone forth before, usually to be lost in the NIH bureaucracy, but I have no objection to their being in this law. Another potentially useful part of the bill is a “sense of Congress ” that the “National Institute on Minority Health and Health Disparities (NIMHD) should include within its strategic plan ways to increase representation of underrepresented communities in clinical trials.”
The (mostly) bad and the (very) ugly
The central question regarding my supporting the 21st Century Cures Act is whether the decent—but not spectacularly so—provisions in the bill outweigh the bad and the ugly. To answer this question, let’s take a closer look. In examining this bill, it is important to note the central assumptions behind the bill. The first, as mentioned in the previous section, is that “precision medicine” will save us all. The second is that we have to get “creative” in loosening regulatory requirements. In reality, there are several provisions in this that bill would markedly undermine the scientific basis of drug approval in this country in the name of “flexibility” and speed. Indeed, the scariest part of the grant is the section entitled “Subtitle D—Modern Trial Design And Evidence Development “, which requires the FDA, in essence, to water down its standards for approving drugs.
Some of this is not inherently bad. For instance, the act would require the FDA to incorporate “the use of adaptive trial designs and Bayesian methods in clinical trials, including clinical trials proposed or submitted to help to satisfy the substantial evidence standard under section 505(d) of the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act (21 U. S.C. 355(d)).” We are, of course, fans of Bayesian methods, and I’ve discussed adaptive clinical trials before. such as the I-SPY 2 trial. Basically, an adaptive clinical trial uses patient outcomes to immediately inform further treatment decisions. They often involve :
Interim analyses to stop or to adjust patient accrual
Interim analyses to assess stopping the trial early either for success, futility or harm
Reversing the hypothesis of non-inferiority to superiority or vice versa
Dropping arms or doses or adjusting doses based on outcomes
Modification of the randomization rate to increase the probability that a patient is allocated to the most appropriate arm
Another hot area in adaptive design is the use of biomarkers as the basis for adapting the trial. In fact, the FDA is already moving to allow for this sort of trial design in its regulations and has issued draft guidelines for such designs for clinical trials of drugs and biologics as well as medical devices. Also, as a 2008 review of adaptive trial designs notes :
It is a concern whether the application of adaptive design methods may have introduced some unexpected operational bias, which may have an impact on accuracy and reliability of the obtained statistical inference. It is also a concern whether the application of adaptive design methods is able to control the overall type I error rate at the prespecified level of significance. As a result, regulatory agencies such as the US FDA request strategies or plans for preventing possible operation biases and for controlling the overall type I error rate be developed. In addition, the sponsors are encourage to begin a dialogue about adaptive designs with medical reviewers and/or statistical reviewers from the regulatory agencies as early as possible (preferably at least a year) before the planning of a trial.
A type I error is defined as the rejection of a null hypothesis that is actually true. In other words, it’s a false positive that finds that the intervention tested “works” when in fact the results in the experimental group are indistinguishable from the control. Obviously, adaptive designs are no panacea. They’re designed to get faster results, but they do so at the price of increasing the risk of false positive conclusions and positive study results that are difficult to interpret. However, it might not be an unreasonable trade-off to accept methods that have a higher risk of false positives for the payoff of faster approval or needing fewer clinical trial subjects. That is more a value judgment than anything else and depends on how much the false positive rate is elevated.
Here’s where things get “badder” and even ugly, in Section 505F, entitled, worryingly enough, “Utilizing evidence from clinical experience “:
(a) In General.—The Secretary shall establish a program to evaluate the potential use of evidence from clinical experience —
“(1) to help to support the approval of a new indication for a drug approved under section 505(b); y
“(2) to help to support or satisfy postapproval study requirements.
“(b) Evidence From Clinical Experience Defined.—In this section, the term ‘evidence from clinical experience’ means data regarding the usage, or the potential benefits or risks, of a drug derived from sources other than randomized clinical trials, including from observational studies, registries, and therapeutic use.
A homeopath would love this provision, and, I’m sure, so would drug companies. Why bother with the time, bother, and expense of those pesky clinical trials to get your drug approved for additional indications, when you can rely on clinical experiences based on therapeutic use, uncontrolled observational studies, or registries instead? If I were the CEO of a pharmaceutical company, I’d love it. Indeed, the one thing this provision most definitely does not do is to speed effective treatments to patients. Rather, it smacks of being a payoff to pharmaceutical companies.
Next up is a section that takes a good idea too far, namely the use of biomarkers in clinical trials. Biomarkers are basically measurable indicators of the presence or severity of a disease or condition – it’s anything that can be used to assess or follow the progress of a disease or treatment. One common biomarker is the prostate-specific antigen (PSA), routinely used to follow prostate cancer for response to treatment and recurrence. For purposes of the 21st Century Cures Act, a biomarker is defined as, “a characteristic (such as a physiologic, pathologic, or anatomic characteristic or measurement) that is objectively measured and evaluated as an indicator of normal biologic processes, pathologic processes, or biological responses to a therapeutic intervention; and (B) such term includes a surrogate endpoint.” In this bill, biomarkers can be used as the basis for drug approval:
“(9) SURROGATE ENDPOINT.—The term ‘surrogate endpoint’ means a marker, such as a laboratory measurement, radiographic image, physical sign, or other measure, that is not itself a direct measurement of clinical benefit, and —
“(A) is known to predict clinical benefit and could be used to support traditional approval of a drug or biological product; o
“(B) is reasonably likely to predict clinical benefit and could be used to support the accelerated approval of a drug or biological product in accordance with section 506(c).
Now, this in and of itself is nothing new. Drugs are provisionally approved on the basis of biomarkers frequently, such as drugs that lower cholesterol. However, as Jerry Avorn and Aaron S. Kesselheim noted in the New England Journal of Medicine :
The bill would also encourage the FDA to rely more on biomarkers and other surrogate measures rather than actual clinical end points in assessing the efficacy of both drugs and devices. The FDA already uses surrogate end points in about half of new drug approvals. Some biomarkers are accurate predictors of disease risk and can be useful measures of the efficacy of a new drug (such as low-density lipoprotein cholesterol for statins). But though a drug’s effect on a biomarker can make approval quicker and less costly, especially if the comparator is placebo, it may not always predict the drug’s capacity to improve patient outcomes. Bevacizumab (Avastin) delayed tumor progression in advanced breast cancer but was shown not to benefit patients. Similarly, rosiglitazone (Avandia) lowered glycated hemoglobin levels in patients with diabetes even as it increased their risk of myocardial infarction. In 2013, patients began to receive a new drug for tuberculosis approved on the basis of a randomized trial relying on a surrogate measure of bacterial counts in the sputum — even though patients given the drug in that trial had a death rate four times that in the comparison group, mostly from tuberculosis. These provisions in the legislation would not immediately change FDA approval standards, but they would give the agency greater discretion, backed by congressional support, to approve drugs on the basis of less rigorous data.
However, right now the FDA also requires further post-approval studies to verify that the effect on the biomarker or surrogate endpoint actually results in concrete benefit to the patient. Examples include improved survival in cancer or decreased cardiovascular deaths in patients with hypertension.
Does this worry you? It sure worries me. The bill also explicitly encourages using less rigorous evidence. For instance, in the case of antibiotics needed to treat “serious or life-threatening infection” in patients with an “unmet medical need,” the FDA would be allowed to accept “nontraditional” measures of efficacy, including “preclinical, pharmacologic, or pathophysiologic evidence; nonclinical susceptibility and pharmacokinetic data, data from phase 2 clinical trials; and such other confirmatory evidence as the secretary [of health and human services] determines appropriate to approve the drug.” True, such drugs would carry a disclaimer on the label, but does anyone think this really would make sure that these drugs were only used for the “unmet medical need”? Worse, the bill makes further clinical trials to verify that these “nontraditional measures” actually correlate with improved outcomes optional .
As if these provisions loosening the required standard of evidence were not enough, things get really scary in the realm of medical devices by creating an expedited approval pathway. Take a look at what would be considered adequate evidence for the approval of medical devices under this pathway:
(ii) For purposes of clause (i), valid scientific evidence may include —
“(I) evidence described in well-documented case histories, including registry data, that are collected and monitored under a protocol determined to be acceptable by the Secretary;
“(II) studies published in peer-reviewed journals; y
“(III) data collected in countries other than the United States so long as such data otherwise meet the criteria specified in this subparagraph.
It gets worse, though. If the device manufacturer submits studies published in peer-reviewed trials, the FDA would have to submit a request for the underlying data, but even if it couldn’t get that data it would still have to consider the study. Even more incredibly, as noted in the NEJM. another section of the law allows device makers to pay a third-party organization to determine whether the manufacturer can be relied upon to assess the safety and efficacy of changes it makes to its devices instead of submitting an application to the FDA. It’s hard for me to view this provision as anything other than free market faith run amok and/or a payoff to the device industry.
But that’s still not all.
The act also politicizes the process of drug development. Provisions in Sections 2021/2022 in essence create a parallel process by which standards for approval of drugs or devices are developed, as described by a Yale Law School researcher, Greg Gonsalves, in an article by Julia Belluz :
What industry is asking for here are adjudications on the use of key drug development tools very early on, with the guidance of outside experts now taking the central role rather than that of scientists at FDA. These decisions [then become] political ones in tete-a-tetes between [the experts] and the Secretary of Health and Human Services, and commitments to an approval pathway using these drug development tools are agreed upon in an almost binding fashion and are difficult to step away from.
These outside experts will include experts chosen by the companies being regulated.
There’s other mischief in this act as well. For instance, it would weaken informed consent protections on patients by adding another category when it is acceptable to forego informed consent, namely when “the proposed clinical testing poses no more than minimal risk to the human subject and includes appropriate safeguards to protect the rights, safety, and welfare of the human subject.” As Merrill Goozner put it. even if the risk is minimal, why would the authors of this legislation waive a central tenet of international agreements designed to protect the rights of human subjects in clinical trials? I don’t understand, either, particularly since the act doesn’t define “minimal risk” or specify who determines whether a study is minimal risk. The number of studies that would be facilitated by such a change in the requirement for informed consent must be vanishingly small.
Then there’s a provision that sidesteps the Sunshine Act. adding an exemption for reporting medical education payments, which has the effect of increasing the number of things drug companies can pay doctors for without having to report them to the physician payment Sunshine database.
The FDA doesn’t need the 21st Century Cures Act
When I first learned of the 21st Century Cures Act, I wanted to like it. I really did. I especially wanted to support it because it provides more funding to the NIH. Even though the act does put too much faith in precision medicine as the be-all and end-all of progress in biomedical research, at least it boosts the NIH budget and provides more funding for early career investigators, who are being particularly harshly squeezed right now. Indeed, I don’t know why they do it, given how small their chances are of attaining NIH funding, which is usually a necessary prelude to winning tenure. The problem is the rest of the bill, which, while not explicitly ordering the FDA to use a lower standard of evidence to approve drugs and devices, opens the door—and outright encourages—less rigorous science in the name of speed.
Like misguided right-to-try laws, none of these additional provisions are needed, and much of what else is in the bill is likely to be harmful to the scientific rigor of the FDA drug approval process. As author Joseph Gulfo. a critic of how FDA approves drugs who is actually in favor of less regulation and who might be expected to be in favor of a bill like this, argues, the FDA already has the power to do most of what is in the 21st Century Cures Act. Gregg Gonsalves and Mark Harrington, former members of Act Up/New York, and David A. Kessler, commissioner of the FDA from 1990 to 1997, agree that the FDA already has the tools to do what the bill’s sponsors want.
Again, the underlying assumption behind the 21st Century Cures Act is that the system is so broken that radical reform is urgently needed. It turns out that that’s an exaggeration. For instance :
An underlying premise of the bill is the need to accelerate approval for new products, but this process is already quite efficient. A third of new drugs are currently approved on the basis of a single pivotal trial; the median size for all pivotal trials is just 760 patients. More than two thirds of new drugs are approved on the basis of studies lasting 6 months or less — a potential problem for medications designed to be taken for a lifetime. Once the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) starts its review, it approves new medications about as quickly as any regulatory agency in the world, evaluating nearly all new drug applications within 6 to 10 months, an impressive turnaround for such complex assessments.
Indeed, it’s been pointed out that the FDA now approves drugs faster than most European regulatory agencies. Moreover, as examples such as Avastin for breast cancer suggest, under accelerated approval we might be approving some drugs too quickly.
The bill has also been characterized as a “Christmas tree ,” something upon which to hang everything on the wishlist of every healthcare-related interest group that’s been frustrated over the last several years:
According to the Senate’s lobbying database, the number of groups listing the 21st Century Cures Act as a lobbying issue grew from 62 in the second quarter of last year to 222 in the first quarter of this year.
“It became a Christmas tree,” said Billy Wynne, of Thorn Run Partners, who has lobbied the bill. “Many people see it as the moonshot opportunity for lots of stuff,” another lobbyist said.
Basically, the 21st Century Cures Act is a solution in search of a problem. Well, not quite. Increasing funding to the NIH is definitely a laudable goal, given how much NIH funding has plummeted in real dollars since 2003. Increasing funding to the FDA is also a laudable goal, although some have argued that the bill doesn’t increase it enough to cover the new responsibilities placed on the FDA. Everything else in the bill is nothing more than a fantasy solution to a nonexistent problem rooted in the belief that if we decrease the standard of evidence for new treatments somehow, magically, lots of “21st Century Cures” will be approved. The bill in its current form is a danger to patients and should not be passed.
I appreciate the replies.
I was trying to confirm that section 505f legally affects nothing but advertising; if I am to believe Narad, my presumption was correct.
It seems petty to object to this change.
Ann, if doctors can prescribe the drug based on the type of evidence described, which you agree they can, how does having FDA doctors review the same evidence, and make a judgement one way or the other– with respect to advertising– create a problem?
Narad, it relates to the previous post only because there is a reasonably strong chance that once pot becomes legal, some form of cannabis will be approved for some “indication”, which will then make it possible for doctors to prescribe it “off-label”. Which was my point then; children with autism will still end up as part of some kind of less-formal “trials”. And then, as ann describes, other doctors will rely on that evidence to expand the use (or not).
Outside the Asylum
This relentless libertarian push for deregulation is the very definition of insanity:trying the same thing over and over again and expecting different results, no matter the disastrous consequences.
Whoa, this guy sounds like a lawyer; better listen to him!
I’m not the one who pulled a totally irrelevant SCOTUS case out his ass in reference to a preliminary injunction in the ambit of the Second Circuit.
Was the actual link too hard for you to follow? Everybody who does not only pop by for attention-seeking knows that IANAL, but at least I know how to read the material . and I strongly suspect that only one of us has been acknowledged in various places by a law professor who is well known in these parts.
Either say something substantive or put a fυcking sock in it.
^ Oh, and lose the fυcking tinyurl routine. If you can’t figure out <a> tags, then just post the entire link. Link obfuscation is just an all-around pain in the ass.
I don’t know that you’d like the Forbes piece anyway. It is basically cheer-leading for the decision. But linking to does not equal endorsement.
Personally, I don’t know why anyone would rely on drug sales reps for anything but free samples and lunch, but that is just me based on my experience working with pharmacists.
On Forbes, I was looking for a synopsis and found it to suffice. Yes, the site is crufty, and their Comment UX is bizarre but when entering through a direct link I find it tolerable to read an article there.
As far as the decision, it is narrow, and hardly settled, at this point But wasn’t that the thought for United States v. Caronia too?
Well, not for me to figure this out. My point was only that independent of the legislation this debate is happening in the courts currently, and I honestly don’t think drug companies are going to drop this fight.
Not a Troll @38: I thought the Sunshine laws mean that the sales rep can’t even bring lunch or pens anymore, just samples and literature.
The sales reps from my company also do patient scheduling, but that’s pretty rare.
As far as the decision, it is narrow, and hardly settled, at this point[.] But wasn’t that the thought for United States v. Caronia too?
I’m not familiar with the prognostications before Caronia came down; I wouldn’t speculate on what the FDA’s next move is going to be, either.
My point was only that independent of the legislation this debate is happening in the courts currently, and I honestly don’t think drug companies are going to drop this fight.
Sure, but to some extent the litigation is orthogonal to Z.’s vague grasping for “arguments” to shoehorn into making his “point,” which is the same as always:
It seems petty to object to this change.
That is: You are stupid people for writing about this. I have a better idea.
“The sales reps from my company also do patient scheduling”
That sounds hinkey and I am surprised that is even allowed.
Anyway, the federal Sunshine Act concerns reporting. Again it was a struggle to find a synopsis, however, this comes close: What Does the Federal Sunshine Act Mean for Massachusetts Physicians? .
Not sure about branded merchandise but I didn’t come across anything stating it was forbidden. I know that many administrations/practices forbid drug reps to even set foot in their buildings so maybe there are offices that allow drug rep visits but have set specific policies on branded merchandise.
My comment was informational for Calli Arcale and other readers. It was not meant to be even tangential to zebra’s point because I never really know what his point is.
However, I think you’ve managed to decipher it in essence in your line in bold above.
Now, if only there were a prize to go with this discovery. Maybe a cruise on the Ruby Princess at the end of January?
& # 8221; It seems petty to object to this change.
That is: You are stupid people for writing about this. I have a better idea.”
“You are writing stupidly about this important topic. Here’s why. Would you (anyone) like to defend your position in a constructive way?”
Response: Waaaa. But I don’t understand. Waaa. Waaa. The question is confusing. Waaa. Waaa. I wanna just agree with everyone and get that warm and fuzzy feeling. Waaa.
zebra, call me dense then but I don’t often know where you are headed in a debate. I can’t keep up with your goal posts so how could I support your position except by coincidence?
I don’t see any relationship between the sign ruling and the pharmaceutical ruling except that they both include the words “free speech”. Who knows, maybe someone will try and tie the two together. That is law for you.
Frankly I don’t understand the free speech ruling in United States v. Caronia. I don’t have free speech in the workplace so how is it protected in the course of doing business on something regulated by the government except that business wants it? However, I haven’t really looked into this so I’m not going to go a further down that rabbit hole.
For this debate, there are many pro arguments for relaxing the rules but you chose to state that it seemed petty to object. So why would you want to hear petty objections then?
Also, if you meant Narad wanting to agree with everyone, I don’t think you could have picked a person that doesn’t fit that description more than him. For me, I don’t see the point in bickering so if that means agreeing with everyone in your mind, I won’t try to convince you otherwise.
[…] melting of Antarctica was already really bad. It just got worse. The 21st Century Cures Act: Old vinegary wine in a new bottle Inclusivity for Aspiring Disabled Scientists: Can We Do More? Chinese biologists lead outcry over […]
Not a Troll @41: The reps do the scheduling for the patient to do the processes required for our company to make the treatment for that specific patient. I can’t go into more detail without outing myself, but the reps aren’t scheduling the patients with the *doctor*, but to actually get the treatment.
It’s more of a case of “Rep Z, this is doctor Y. I want to prescribe N to patient X.” “No problem, doctor Y. I’ll be your point person for working with your scheduling nurse to get patient X into facility A on day blah, and into facility B on day 3blah.”
Like I said, it’s complicated.
Zebra @34: I have no idea what your unwillingness to trust a doctor has to do with regulations surrounding ethical medical research.
But I sure as dickens wouldn’t trust you.
That’s a disturbingly bizarre thing to say, but anyway, I just wanted to let you know something you don’t seem to understand:
It is doctors who do the medical research. So your paranoia would indicate that you are the one who doesn’t trust doctors, not me.
Doctors can prescribe off-label, and there is no one checking up on the quality of “informed consent”. But because you call it “research”, the doctors are no longer to be trusted to decide that it is safe? Strange “logic”.
At some point, some doctor had to be the first to prescribe off-label for whatever drug. Was that “research”? Was it woo, because there was no FDA approval?
zebra @48: I guess that I should not be surprised that you are staggeringly ignorant of medical research and how it is done. Medical research is done by doctors and by scientists. So, strike 1.
Prescribing off-label isn’t research. That’s practicing medicine. As we all always saying here, n=1 isn’t research. It’s an anecdote. Strike 2.
Informed consent has nothing to do with safety and everything to do with respecting the autonomy of someone you are asking to participate in your research. It doesn’t matter if you are enrolling someone in a Phase I safety study or asking them to count how many times two people pass a ball in a video. If a person participates in research, they (or someone authorized to speak for them) must give informed consent. Informed consent is about respecting the humanity of research subjects, as well as protecting them from harm. Strike 3.
The fact that you have absolutely no understanding of what informed consent means, or how research is conducted, makes your endless arguments here even more difficult to take as anything other than trolling.
Coursera has had several classes in how to conduct a clinical trial. Please avail yourself of these classes before you continue to tell me what is and what is not ‘research’.
September 8, 2015
[…] and devices will magically lead to an explosion in “21st century cures,” the same old antiregulatory wine in a slightly new bottle. Be that as it may, one way or the other, the federal government is poised to spend lots of money […]
October 26, 2015
[…] found it satisfying that Howard and Gross basically agree with me about the 21st Century Cures Act’s high likelihood of allowing many more medical devices and drugs with limited evidence of […]
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Education for the 21st Century
Since its creation in 1945, UNESCO’s mission has been to contribute to the building of peace, poverty eradication, lasting development and intercultural dialogue, with education as one of its principal activities to achieve this aim. The Organization is committed to a holistic and humanistic vision of quality education worldwide, the realization of everyone’s right to education and the belief that education plays a fundamental role in human, social and economic development.
UNESCO is entrusted to lead Sustainable Development Goal 4 (SDG4) - Ensure inclusive and equitable quality education and promote lifelong learning opportunities for all - through the Education 2030 Framework for Action (FFA).
To fulfil this role UNESCO aims to provide global and regional leadership in education, strengthen education systems worldwide and respond to contemporary global challenges through education.
As the only United Nations agency with a mandate to cover all aspects of education, UNESCO’s work encompasses educational development from pre-school to higher education, including technical and vocational education and training, non-formal education and literacy.
The Organization focuses on enhancing inclusive equitable access to relevant quality education that develops knowledge and competencies in areas such as global citizenship and sustainable development, human rights and gender equality, health and HIV and AIDS, as well as technical and vocational skills development. UNESCO works with governments and a wide range of partners to make education systems more effective through policy change.
The Education 2030 Framework for Action guides UNESCO and partners’ in implementing the Sustainable Development Goal 4. It recognizes that governments have the primary responsibility for successful implementation, follow-up and review and that country-led action can drive change, supported by effective multi-stakeholder partnerships and financing.
This content was written by a student and assessed as part of a university degree. E-IR publishes student essays & dissertations to allow our readers to broaden their understanding of what is possible when answering similar questions in their own studies.
“Critically evaluate claims that the world was shaped by American imperialism in the Twentieth Century.”
Consumed by the intoxicating promise of an ‘American Century’, Henry Luce in 1941 declared the subsequent hundred years to be the destiny of the United States of America (USA). “The prediction was 100 years of unparalleled power and predominance. The United States had 50% of the world’s GDP, it led the world in almost every major area of technology, most areas of basic science, we had the ability to project military force around the world, its major competitors were left in ruins, and had a monopoly on the Atomic Bomb.[1] ” To this day, America still has the largest economy in the world, the firepower and global status to, almost unilaterally, engage in wars as immersive as Iraq, and a powerful cultural resonance. Imperialism is defined as: “a policy of extending a country’s power and influence through colonization, use of military force, or other means[2] ”; yet, Luce’s audacious statement was regarding America’s newfound capacity to shape the rules of the new world order, with itself at the head. Herein, we can examine the extent of American dominance and the very legitimacy of the word “empire”.
The international organs and institutions were, for the greater part, initiated by America at the climax of the Second World War. “They believed firmly that a stable international order could be best built upon such principles as freedom,[3] ” and this would be through the establishment of a United Nations (UN) and other collective administrative forces. Ikenberry affirms that this has actually filled the void of empire, with “states hold[ing] a monopoly on the use of force in their own territory while order at the international level is maintained through the diffusion of power among states.[4] ” This is certainly an idealistic view and probably a deficient one because, in the post-war period, with America having succeeded in carving out a near monopoly on these organizations, accentuating that “the UN without the US is nothing,[5] ” this was, in fact, an indirect manifestation of imperialism.
This same dominance was also a feature of the international financial world, with America having crafted the architecture of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank (and instigating the Bretton Woods system of currency): “the policies the debtor countries had to adopt became known as the Washington Consensus.[6] ” Such prestidigitation enabled the US to gain the upper hand in terms of its economic relationship with other countries, something particularly important in an increasingly globalized age. With regards to the ‘American empire’, “unlike any other in the history of the world, [it] has been built primarily through economic manipulation, through cheating… giving loans to other countries, huge loans, much bigger than they could possibly repay.[7] ” This sentiment is fundamental to Pax Americana, as well as in establishing security; however, inequity has occurred with “the backward countries… now discovering that their political importance to the rich nations has decreased in inverse proportion to their own economic need.[8] ” On the other hand, as along with having the capacity to ignore organizations’ requests and demands regarding situations that do not suit its agenda, such as George W. Bush’s decision to go to war in Iraq, America, would, nonetheless, assist countries in need of humanitarian aid. For example, “a Pakistani conservative credits US military and economic aid with enabling Pakistan to survive ‘during her tender infancy.’[9] ” It is clear that such flexibility for America “clearly had influenced the United States as it rose to power over the course of the twentieth century.[10] "
The existence and presence of US military is also a striking indicator of the extent of imperialism. There are “156 countries with U. S. troops; 63 of which also have fully functioning bases,[11] ” and with the dissolution of the Soviet Union, America now has modest bases on Russia’s doorstep, which serve as a live prospect. The fact that such territorial ‘violation’ has existed would seem to legitimate the view that America is an empire – at least in the sense that it is supreme to those countries that its forces impregnate – or perhaps simply that these countries see no loss in playing host. The key question to the extent of America’s shaping of the Twentieth Century is whether these countries were directed by America or simply in agreement with the super-power from the outset?
It is clear that counter-factualists would say that if America had not intervened in the First and Second World Wars, their very dominance would have ceased to exist. This is simply because alliances would also cease to exist in a Nazi Europe and Soviet East, as there would be no possibility of having bases in an ideologically hostile arena. The Washington Consensus would be superfluous. “Parents of teenagers know that if they have structured their children’s beliefs and preferences, their power will be greater and will last longer than if they had relied on active control.[12] ” Therefore, after US military intervention, endorsement rather than occupation of Europe was required, and this came via a gargantuan expenditure programme (5.5% of US Gross Domestic Product in its first year alone) called the Marshall Plan, which aided war-torn Europe with funds in order to quell American fears of it turning to Communism. Alliances were required for the enhancement of the American vision for the future, in acting as political and trade partners. Allied with the ‘Truman Doctrine’, an early example of America tailoring the political alignment of the world – in this case Europe – so as to make conditions conducive for itself to flourish, this could therefore be interpreted as the creation of an ideological empire. Such intervention cemented the view that liberal democracy, albeit more loosely capitalistic compared to the laissez-faire American-style, was the paradigm to follow.
Direct interventionism has been one of the most important features of the reach of American imperialism. Although through a kaleidoscope of ultimate subjectivity, with the assumption that liberal democracy is the paradigm, such interventionism has arguably had positive effects on the modern world. It would be jejune to simply highlight the cataclysm that was the Vietnam War, spanning three decades. Accordingly, it is important to understand the context of all American involvements. Max Boot defends American imperialism by declaring that it “has been the greatest force for good in the world during the past century. It has defeated Communism and Nazism and has intervened against the Taliban and Serbian ethnic cleansing.[13] ” American hegemony, at this very moment, was paved by the dissolution of the Soviet Union that had been accelerated by American military spending and a Strategic Defence Initiative. It is clear that “today the Cold War is over. The Soviet Union is no more.[14] ” America’s strength could also be understood as extinguishing the dying embers of British Empire: “one thing we are not fighting for is to hold the British Empire together[15] ”, as echoed by President Eisenhower who famously condemned British action in Suez in 1957 as “in error”. This condemnation was also a necessity to exert American influence at its fullest.
Furthermore, it is significant that, after Woodrow Wilson’s intervention in the First World War, “America was no longer merely the great example of freedom — America was now to bestow freedom on the world through its political and military intervention. Peace would be established by reordering the world according to a new socially engineered design.[16] ” The most notable and substantial achievement in American interventionism, however, can be over-looked. Contemporary West Germany, Japan, and South Korea are all testament to the American capacity to re-invent and stabilize nations. “In the first two, rogue regimes far more dangerous than Saddam Hussein’s in Iraq, with ideologies far more dangerous than the radical Islamic fundamentalism that inspires Al-Qaeda, were over-thrown, and the societies which supported them were drastically transformed to produce the stable Western-orientated capitalist liberal democracies we know today.[17] ” If the respective American governments did not take such action, it is unequivocal that the modern world would be unrecognizable, especially seeing that all three are, to this day, are strong American allies. In this sense, American ‘imperialism’ has carved two key regions into its own mould.
While American imperialism has had positive effects, it would be quixotic to assume that the American agenda and the effects of interventionism have been wholly beneficial and successful. “The world is a much more dangerous place as a result of America’s determination to save it[18] ”. This is due to excessive entanglement in areas of entrenched tribal conflicts, such as in Afghanistan and Iraq. Despite his usual fetishism for America and empire, even Ferguson acknowledges “the failures outnumber the successes roughly four to one” and that “in the countries that the United States intervened in militarily, between 1898 and the present, only a tiny handful were successfully transformed into quasi-American societies.”[19] It is probable that the Cold War would not have helped the American cause for the proliferation of capitalism and liberal democracy, in that there was a broad acceptance that each sides’ influence be contained. The period of the Cold War was intrinsic, however. Yet, despite this, the more intervention America wills for today, the more the world “will become more militarized, and less democratized.”[20] This explicitly challenges the veracity of ‘Pax Americana’. There is some truth in such a claim, but the success of various involvements in post-war Europe and post-1991 Eastern Europe would seem sufficient warrant for future liberal interventionism, despite the existing cloud left by the recent Iraq War.
Little actually criticizes “the failure of the United States to establish a stable world order”[21] of having left a preponderance of dangerously unstable hybrids, such as Afghanistan. However, others would even question America’s actual capacity to influence the world in absolute terms. Even in the Cold War, despite America’s ultimate triumph, it was beholden to smaller countries due to the fear that they would jettison a policy of alignment with them: “if pressure from one superpower became too great, a smaller power could defend itself by threatening to align with the other superpower”[22]. to further its own objectives. As alignment was crucial in the ideological conflict, so were alliances. As such, despite being stronger than every other country, they still had to woo potential allies, rather than simply occupy territory. Furthermore, “it could not intervene in the zone of accepted Soviet hegemony”[23] and, so, had virtually no active influence over Eastern Europe for the greater part of the Twentieth Century. Thus, this idea has limitations.
Cultural imperialism is also a significant feature of the world today. “The connection between imperial politics and culture in North America, and in particular in the United States, is astonishingly direct.”[24] Whether concerning the instant familiarity of Hollywood or the phenomenon of jeans, “the United States… has a universalistic popular culture”[25]. and this has left a cultural impression on all continents of the world, to some degree. The most significant reason of America’s success is its control of information flows, that it has such a stronghold on the media, and that it can “fix the premises of discourse and interpretation, and the definition of what is newsworthy in the first place.”[26] The fact that America holds such a strong position with such vast instruments for communication allows it to guide the world toward its own paradigm. Marxists would go as far to consider America as facilitating a self-perpetuating cycle of expansion, whereby it can monopolize the world order through economic and military superiority. On this basis, the intervention in the Gulf Wars was a consequence of American lust for oil. Others would see intervention as purely ideological, imposing Western values onto torn, despotic regimes. However, the nuances of the term “imperialism” would indicate America to be less of an empire and more of ‘a global policeman’, “forming the nuclear system, the monetary system, and the post-war trade system.”[27]
Luce’s declaration of an American Century was certainly prescient, yet far from absolute: the immediate post-war supremacy mirrored the Soviet bloc, until its dissolution in 1991. However, it is equally apparent that, throughout the period, America has had the capacity to intervene in varying countries and conflicts, but, as Kondracke argues, this has been to act as “a status quo power.”[28] It is evident that America has not intervened in countries for the sole reason of furthering its own ends, “not trying to exert military hegemony on any region”[29] ; such as in Bosnia and Herzegovina or Kosovo, where failed states have contributed to civilian destruction. Although, it is also clear that the proliferation of an ideology broadly aligned with the American modus operandi is desirable for the further enhancement of their own success. Therefore, the optics and the substance need careful disentangling. It is prevalent view that America has been a global colossus over the Twentieth Century and it has wielded its considerable influence for humanitarian purposes, as well as more dubious geo-political ones in a host of countries, from Grenada in 1983, and Panama 1989, to Iraq at the turn of the century. It is essential to recognize that the ways in which America has shaped the world of today: in West Germany, in South Korea, with the destiny of the Cold War, and now with the ‘War on Terror’. If America is an empire, it is not in the conventional sense of defined territorial occupation. However, regardless of semantics, with the depth of America’s strength having been so unequivocal, the legacy of many of its successful international pursuits have been sufficiently encompassing, in that they will undoubtedly outlast America’s own supremacy.
[1] Weber, Steven; The Empire Dialogues: The US and World Order; November 3rd, 2003; 40minutes
[2] Soanes, Catherine; Oxford English Dictionary; OUP Oxford; 11 Aug 2005; page714
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Tis the season for grant and award applications or at least it feels that way from the sheer number of notices rolling into my email inbox and pervading the professional literature. As I scan these various grants and awards seeking ever increasingly innovative projects, I started to ponder an idea. As we’ve discussed previously in this blog: I believe Innovation is a matter of perspective. If you’re driving a car an airplane would be an innovation but if you’re riding a bicycle then a car would be an innovation. Simply put - what is innovative at one Library might be last years news at another. Innovation is about your own unique environment and starting point.
So if each Library’s level of innovation is in a different place based on their starting point and environment…but the awards and grants continually seek to raise the bar and set higher and higher levels for innovation…Doesn’t it stand to reason that at some point some libraries will simply be left behind? Example: Anytown Library has come to a place where they have the staff know-how and community support to add a Makers Space, they begin to apply for various awards or grants to assist in funding the project. However, to their dismay, they are repeatedly turned down with the explanation that the idea is simply no longer ‘innovative enough’ to receive grant/award funding. When you find yourself applying for an award to pursue an innovative project or idea for your library (such as a maker space) only to find that the award goes to someone who already had a maker space and is now taking the next step, where does this leave you looking for funding? Do you regularly notice the list of libraries receiving innovation funding through grants or awards seems to have the same names popping up year after year?
Recently I had a conversation with a colleague about innovation grants and awards. She mentioned her participation as a judge on a panel for a state-wide innovation grant. She served on this panel for several years and she detailed their pursuit of ever increasing levels of innovation. I asked how they balanced those libraries just beginning to innovative with libraries further along the path. She seemed puzzled at my question. I explained by saying “If an applicant starts from a place of less innovation-how were they able to compete for the funding?” She relied “They really couldn’t compete effectively. We were looking for the MOST innovative ideas. & # 8221; I queried “But without the funding of their project to raise them to that next level, how were they ever expected to reach a common ground with other libraries in the state so that they could compete for those funds?” Her response “Well, I guess they couldn’t.” I simply stated “Interesting. It sounds like a cycle that inevitably leaves some libraries behind with no chance to catch up…”
So what happens if you’re a library that is trying to continue to grow but find yourself outpaced by those libraries who seem further along on their journey of innovation? As they win funding grants and awards to implement Innovation one year, they then build on that program the next year to have an even better and grander program that they put forward for innovative funding. As funders look for the most innovative projects available to them to fund, are we creating an entire classification of libraries that are simply…left behind?
Hopefully, as Foundations, awarding organizations and other funding sources look at distributing monies to innovative projects in public libraries, they will continue to balance the importance of funding innovation that moves the entire profession and bar for innovation forward as well as those projects that may only move one library forward in their innovation journey. As a profession committed to providing equal services across communities, net neutrality, open access, we must apply that same approach to innovation. Every community and library deserves to have an opportunity to compete for support, awards, and funding for innovation as they perceive it. At the end of the day, we must ensure that we do not leave an entire subset of libraries behind in our relentless pursuit for that next great innovation idea.
Let us not leave behind those who have started from a bicycle while those who ride in the car get an airplane and fly away.
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2015 was a great year for 21st Century Library Blog, thanks in no small part to faithful readers like yourself.
While the posts were fewer than I intended, this year saw the creation of a ‘sister’ Facebook page, which became the #1 Referring Site to the Blog!!
It is encouraging to me that 175 countries read my Blog, and one of them invited me to speak at their annual library/education conference in March 2016. (More to come on that.)
I hope you enjoy this 21st Century Library Blog 2015 in Review and give yourself a pat on the back for helping our profession progress.
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I saw the headline and thought “Excellent! I hope this means ALA has made real progress toward open access to ALL content regardless of format!” and then I read the article.
“ALA highlighted the valuable role of libraries in the publishing and reading ecosystems and thus why more flexible and favorable terms for library eBook lending are in everyone’s best interest.”
Publishing ecosystems? Huh? Where’s the mention of providing equal access to information regardless of format?
“This visit represents ALA’s ninth such delegation effort over the last several years.”
Ninth delegation. ¿Seriamente? And yet here most of us sit with abysmal title selections and outrageously priced contracts. I don’t think the strategy is working…whatever it is.
“Libraries have a prominent role in the discovery of books and authors, whether in the physical or virtual worlds.”
Cierto. We all love our reader’s advisory and putting those new books in people’s hands.
“Indeed, the opening of a brick-and-mortar store by Amazon is a major acknowledgment that physical place is important, even for an online-based service. "
True…Library as 3rd space. We have been saying this for a decade. Wait…is the delegation saying these publisher’s should think of the libraries as their “brick-and-mortar” presence for their eBook trade? Hmm..starting to feel a little uncomfortable… where is this headed?
“In our meetings, we came away with a few possibilities for strengthened collaboration with publishers to promote discoverability as well as reading and literacy.”
OK - even less comfortable. Let’s break down this sentence. So in addition to promoting reading and literacy which we all do and love…the delegation is suggesting we promote discoverability…of the publisher’s eBooks. Why is it that this sounds a bit more like promoting for revenue than simple reader’s advisory?
“One idea that received some traction is tying discoverability with a particular subject matter, such as health or workforce issues. Library services or programming in an area would be developed and highlighted on a national scale, and publishers’ titles on these subjects would be featured. Publishers would offer print or eBooks through a favorable promotion to stimulate participation by libraries and, in turn, by the public.”
I’m sorry…what? Let’s read that part again “publishers’ titles on these subjects would be featured”. And…“Publishers would offer print or eBooks through a favorable promotion to stimulate participation by libraries and, in turn, by the public.” Now I’m officially uncomfortable and we have turned into shady ethical territory. Consider this: It is one thing when we host a children’s program with a magician and then put out a display of books on magic. It is ENTIRELY another when a book seller comes to the children’s librarian and says “If you will pay to put on a program with a magician - I will SELL you these books on magic at a discount and then you agree to ‘feature’ those books at the program”. How many of us would pull back from that offer instinctively?
But now we read an article with ALA is actually presenting this as a serious idea. ARE YOU KIDDING. Libraries are not peddlers of the publisher’s product! Libraries are not about free advertising for authors! Taxpayers do not give Libraries their hard-earned tax dollars to have us craft services and programming to promote a for-profit venture.
“Most fundamental, however, for these meetings is to further develop the library–publisher relationship at the executive and national levels. Publishers and libraries have similar overall goals—to promote and advance reading and literacy—and are allies in many respects.”
And why is it that each time I read about Library/Publisher talks or pilot programs I always see the same New York area libraries represented? Why are the New York area Libraries driving the national agenda and conversation on eBooks? Why are they some of the ONLY libraries to have ‘deals’ with the publishers? Proximity? Bazofia. We all know how to get on an airplane. I have as much or more respect for NYPL and its neighbors as anyone (I’ll admit it may nearly bordering on a bit of hero worship); but I would like to see a broader spectrum of folks invited to the table for these negotiations. Perhaps this is a banner that the new Librarian of Congress or ALA’s new Director of ALA’s Office of Intellectual Freedom and Freedom to Read Foundation, Jamie LaRue. With his appointment, I have the first high hopes I’ve had for awhile when it comes to serious progress from ALA.
And lets not overlook the bit about similar goals. Unless it’s a charitable tax write off or a form of promotion, do we really believe the Big 5 have any other goal at the end of the day other than to make money? What better way than to get one of the most trusted of public institutions to hawk their products?
Let’s stop kowtowing to the Big 5. Stop telling them how good we are for their product and begging for scraps. Please ALA, do not sell the soul of the Public Library – the public trust that Libraries are one of the only remaining ‘commercial-free zones’- for a better price on the latest best seller. We are not the pawn of the Publishers. We are not their salesmen. Instead stand up for EXACTLY the reason we Public Librarians are here! To ensure that all Americans, regardless of their means, have access to ALL content/information REGARDLESS of format.
THAT SHOULD BE OUR MESSAGE TO THE PUBLISHERS. We will NOT allow them to throw our ability to create open access to information back into the dark ages because the technology of this bright new century allows them to maintain a strangle hold on content. Access to information is a right of all. NOT just those who can pay. That is why the FREE PUBLIC LIBRARY was created. How DARE we let these publisher disregard this basic tenant of our democracy!
Perhaps in the 10th meeting Libraries will make a stand.
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It was January of 2014 since I last wrote a post about IBM’s “Watson” cognitive computer. That’s actually longer than I expected before hearing news about this revolutionary computer. In that post I wrote:
Just as historic as Bell creating communication over wire, Marconi making it wireless, and Perotto creating the desktop computer, IBM has broken through technology to the holy grail of computing by inventing Watson – the cognitive computer.
Would you rather “Ask a Librarian” with human limitations and biases with limited resources at your local library, or speak to a computer with almost infinite knowledge who will recommend resources and even tell you how confident it is that it will satisfy your question? Would you rather go to the Only Vanilla Ice Cream Store, or to Baskin & Robbins 31 Kinds?
Combine the threat to libraries from “e-book and digital media retailers” that Brantley addressed with the threat from Watson toward the reference role of libraries and it is obvious that libraries MUST reinvent themselves NOW! As I wrote last February; “This is by no means the first or even a new call to action, but … time is running out for libraries to find their place in the community they serve. I for one seriously wonder what it will take for library leaders to recognize the future challenges and adopt a vision to overcome them and save the library. Traditional librarianship is a relic of the past century. Creative and innovative thinking with visionary leadership and bold action is the only approach that will save libraries” in the 21st Century.
The “What Is Watson ” website: IBM Watson is a technology platform that uses natural language processing and machine learning to reveal insights from large amounts of unstructured data
How Watson answers questions First Watson learns a new subject • All related materials are loaded into Watson, such as Word documents, PDFs and web pages • Questions and answers pairs are added to train Watson on the subject • Watson is automatically updated as new information is published
How Watson learns Then Watson answers a question • Watson searches millions of documents to find thousands of possible answers • Collects evidence and uses a scoring algorithm to rate the quality of this evidence • Ranks all possible answers based on the score of its supporting evidence
I recently reviewed the DPLA (Digital Public Library of America ) to see how that is progressing, since there is an obvious match-up between the two – super smart computer that needs an extensive database to learn! They have hundreds more contributors than last time I checked, and are now at about 2.5 Million volumes, so obviously they are growing exponentially. DPLA is still frequently in the news .
So, what does a merging of Watson and DPLA mean for librarians? Twenty years ago librarians thought that the proliferation of the Internet would put an end to their usefulness. Well, it did and it didn’t. In the beginning of this new century libraries experienced a decline in users, those people who actually came into the library to check out books. However, as the first decade passed, users became new types of customers. They could get digital and audio materials from their local library, and libraries started to adjust to offering more customer-centered services and became less library-centric. Libraries began reaching out to users, rather than being the stoic institution that users had to come to for unique services. Libraries’ services, at least in terms of collections, were no longer unique.
I still agree with the saying that “Closing libraries in an economic crisis is like closing hospitals in an epidemic.” And, of course, “Now that we have Google, why do we need libraries?” is answered by asking “Now that we have WedMD, why do we need doctors?” Having said that, let’s consider how a marriage between Watson and DPLA affects librarians.
As the volume of published materials also increases exponentially, it becomes like the air – IT’S EVERYWHERE – and thanks to DPLA and Watson it’s as easily accessible as air. Way back in September of 2010 I wrote about the new high school curriculum standards that 12th grade students are expected to meet before graduation – 21st Century Skills in Action in School Libraries
7e. Benchmarks to Achieve by Grade 12
Standard 1: Inquire, think critically, and gain knowledge.
Do the ‘Better’ Indicators Work on Crude Oil? Sí
Do the ‘Better’ Indicators Work on Crude Oil? Sí
The ‘Better’ indicators aren’t optimised, so use them on any market or timeframe.
Crude Oil has become a great day trading vehicle over the last few years. There is plenty of volume (liquidity), volatility (intra-day range) and “mini” contracts available (symbol QM) – which are essential for a good day trading market.
The video above shows how the 3 non-correlated indicators (Better Sine Wave, Better Momentum and Better Pro Am) can be used for day trading Crude.
Over-optimization will always kill a system – I’ve learned that the hard way. And I’ve gone out of my way to make sure the ‘Better’ indicators are not optimized for any particular market. The indicators are “dynamic” and no input values need to be chosen for any market or timeframe.
The same day trading principles apply to Crude Oil
Day Trading Crude Oil with the ‘Better’ Indicators (500 tick)
Since Crude Oil has large daily volume traded you should be able to stick with the normal day trading timeframes that I use on the Emini – that is 500, 1,500 and 4,500 tick charts.
However, the largest volume goes through the large contract (symbol CL), instead of the “mini” contract (symbol QM). I would suggest charting the CL contract but maybe taking trades on the QM contract if you have a small account.
The screenshot above of the 500 tick Crude Oil chart shows turning points repeat the same sequence of price, volume and average trade size:
Exhaustion buying/selling volume
Volume divergence with less buying/selling and higher highs/lower lows
“End of Trend” price cycle warning signal
Cycle turn after “End of Trend” is often low risk entry point, and
Professionals active at price extremes
And remember to always trade in sympathy with the trend in the higher time frames.
Another Crude Oil day trade example
Crude Oil Day Trade Example – 1 Nov 2011 (5:55)
I love getting videos from subscribers showing their trading charts and how they use the ‘Better’ Indicadores. So thank you to Starling H. – one of Emini-Watch’s loyal fans – for letting me share this great Crude Oil trade with the followers.
Human Trafficking in the 21th Century
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Is there human trafficking in your backyard? The answer could be confirmatory. Human trafficking is the purchase, selling, enslavement, or smuggling of human beings (UNODC). According to the UN crime-fighting office, well over 2.4 million individuals across the globe have been victims of human trafficking at one time in their lifetime. As a matter of fact, a majority of these people have been subjugated as sexual slaves. They are usually caught by “recruiters” through the use of force or by means of fraud. In the process, they are enforced to carry out a wide range of activities, which may involve housekeeping, foreign dancing as well as prostitution (UNODC).
The majority of these victims are usually forced through physical abuse that involves rape, starvation, bondage, as well as beating. In many cases, the recruiters are usually second generation citizens of the US who have close ties with citizens in their home countries. As a matter of fact, these recruiters are socio-economically well off in their home countries. Every year, unscrupulous criminals earn close to $32 billion from operating human trafficking networks. The unfortunate thing is that 60% of the victims are women (FBI).
The Spreading of Human Trafficking
Human trafficking is today one of the largest criminal enterprises. It is spreading like a phenomenon around the globe. It is actually a global phenomenon that borders a multi-disciplinary environment. It affects almost all countries around the globe. In most cases, human trafficking takes place for the purpose of sexual exploitation as well as forced labor. Most of the victims are usually women as well as children (UNODC).
It is spread mainly due to the fact that it is flexible, dynamic, opportunistic, and criminal in nature. Just like any other kind of criminality, human trafficking takes advantage of clashes, humanitarian debacles as well as the susceptibility of populations in crises.
Why Human Trafficking is Spreading
Over the past few years, human trafficking has been fueled by prostitution as well as the growth of brothels. Israel is apparently one of the countries where young girls and women are lured by the promises of high paying jobs only to end up finding themselves in prostitution. Another big destination of human trafficking is Japan, where thousands of women and children are sold for sex and forced labor. They are mostly sold to brothel owners in provinces around Japan. In some cases, there are brothels which operate unchecked in spite of the practice being illegal.
According to the International Labor Organization, there are more slaves now than at any time in the history of humanity. One of the main reasons as to why human trafficking is spreading is the fact that criminals are gradually offering more smuggling services to crooked migrants. This is because they are able to evade border controls, visa necessities as well as immigration requirements. Due to the improvement of border controls, the traffickers are deterred from engaging in cross border deals.
Additionally, human trafficking is spreading as a result of the fact that it has become a highly lucrative enterprise, in which the criminals benefit from a low risk of exposure and retribution. As a matter of fact, criminals involved in human trafficking are becoming more and more structured, with conventional proficient networks that go beyond borders and regions (UNODC).
Human trafficking has also spread due to the fact that the modus operandi of these criminals is very diverse. They highly rely on document fraud. Additionally, they are constantly changing routes in response to stiff security measures.
How Human Trafficking is Spread
Human trafficking is spread by individuals as well as criminal networks. At times, conventionally organized crime groups also take part in this trade. This is inclusive of regimented businesses that function in a competitive global arena (FBI). Some of the criminals assist in single border crossing, while others operate in an ongoing manner, which includes huge trafficking organizations. In most cases, they operate on a more permanent basis and take part in the recruitment of the victims, in the selling as well as reselling of the victims to employers.
Human Trafficking Rings
According to the United States’ Attorney’s Office in Seattle, most of the human trafficking rings that transport women and children are located in China, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, Japan, Hong Kong, Vietnam, and Taiwan (FBI). By and large, they transport innocent women and children in furtherance of prostitution as well as schemes to engage in money laundering.
One of the key indicators that a facility or a building is being used for human trafficking is the fact that there are large amounts of money as well as condoms at the facilities. In most cases, receipt books are usually in the rooms, which are sparsely furnished with mattresses instead of massage tables. These facilities usually have video security systems, with men frequently coming in and out of them (NFS). As a matter of fact, stringent security measures are usually put around the buildings in the form of security cameras and obscure windows, which are usually boarded-up. Additionally, there are usually hidden passages as well as trap doors. The victims usually live in or near the work premises.
Most victims of human trafficking exhibit signs of physical trauma and are usually living in fear and depression. Many of them are usually whipped into fear. This results in crushing any kind of hope that they may have. The torture, whipping as well as deprivation of food are used by criminals as scare tactics to subjugate the victims. Additionally, they exhibit signs of drug addiction. In most cases, the majority suffer from hunger and malnutrition as a result of being deprived of food.
Why People Participate in Human Trafficking
By and large, human trafficking is a multi-faceted issue. In this regard, there are many reasons as to why people end up engaging in this criminal and dehumanizing activity. One of them is the increase in demand for low-priced as well as abusive domestic manual workers. Additionally, there has been a steep rise in the demand for sex workers. This is in line with the highly profitable and international sex industry (NFS).
Consequently, many people participate in the crime because of the quick money they get from it. Some people also engage in the crime because of the feeling of power that they get from it. They actually get a false sense of power, as a result of enslaving another human being.
Additionally, there is usually a lack of public awareness with regard to the dangers of human trafficking. Many people in the developing world do not know their rights and are subsequently vulnerable to these criminal activities. Apparently, criminal networks that engage in human trafficking are usually very sophisticated and have huge resources to advance their operations (NFS).
In most cases, people also participate in human trafficking due to the lack of useful anti-trafficking laws as well as lack of effectual enforcement of the very laws. The international policies that promote the exclusion of marginalized people also push people to engage in the practice. This is further aggravated by the breakdown of social fortification arrangements. In most countries where victims come from, there is prevalent corruption, all through the entire system (UNODC). This is especially worse among the people with the responsibility to combat the crime.
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20-08-2013, 03:14 PM
3 Days Fibonacci Trader Workshop, with Dennis Bolze, and special quest speaker Thom Hartle.
• Learn about the odds in trading, then experiment with money management… learn how to shift the odds in your favor.
• Experience hands-on building of charts and constructing a trading plan.
• Find a trigger to enter the trade as well as learn to do a proper backtest.
• Learn stop placement and targets, and how to design this trading plan to fit your style of trading and risks.
• Learn a new ‘fib’ tool and how to link it and find support and resistance in the market
• We will have a real-time live trading demonstration from open until close!
• You will leave this workshop with a clearer idea of how to trade, how to develop a trading plan and backtest it, and how to find the safe low risk entry for a trade.
[Only registered and activated users can see links]
20-08-2013, 07:09 PM
Do you have similar learning materials for Elliott waves. I am interested for EW materials.
21-08-2013, 12:42 AM
3 Days Fibonacci Trader Workshop, with Dennis Bolze, and special quest speaker Thom Hartle.
• Learn about the odds in trading, then experiment with money management… learn how to shift the odds in your favor.
• Experience hands-on building of charts and constructing a trading plan.
• Find a trigger to enter the trade as well as learn to do a proper backtest.
• Learn stop placement and targets, and how to design this trading plan to fit your style of trading and risks.
• Learn a new ‘fib’ tool and how to link it and find support and resistance in the market
• We will have a real-time live trading demonstration from open until close!
• You will leave this workshop with a clearer idea of how to trade, how to develop a trading plan and backtest it, and how to find the safe low risk entry for a trade.
[Only registered and activated users can see links]
If it's okay with you, I'm going to share most of these videos here after converting them to 4shared to make it easier for others to download and view my friend.
21-08-2013, 12:42 AM
Identifying Low Risk Trading Opportunities (video)
Tom walks you through some of the indicators revealed in his latest book and shows you how to use them to identify low-risk, high-potential trades
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Password: [Only registered and activated users can see links]
(Check below for five (5) other sets of Tom Demark Videos)
21-08-2013, 12:46 AM
TD Analysis to Supercharge Your Trading Results (video)
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Password: [Only registered and activated users can see links]
(Check below for four (4) other sets of Tom Demark Videos)
21-08-2013, 12:47 AM
My Ultimate Indicators (video)
In this eye-opening keynote, Tom shares insights on some of his favorite new indicators including those that are fully revealed for the first time in his latest book, New Market Timing Techniques.
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Password: [Only registered and activated users can see links]
(Check below for three (3) other sets of Tom Demark Videos)
21-08-2013, 12:49 AM
3 Days Fibonacci Trader Workshop, with Dennis Bolze, and special quest speaker Thom Hartle.
• Learn about the odds in trading, then experiment with money management… learn how to shift the odds in your favor.
• Experience hands-on building of charts and constructing a trading plan.
• Find a trigger to enter the trade as well as learn to do a proper backtest.
• Learn stop placement and targets, and how to design this trading plan to fit your style of trading and risks.
• Learn a new ‘fib’ tool and how to link it and find support and resistance in the market
• We will have a real-time live trading demonstration from open until close!
• You will leave this workshop with a clearer idea of how to trade, how to develop a trading plan and backtest it, and how to find the safe low risk entry for a trade.
[Only registered and activated users can see links] [Only registered and activated users can see links] [Only registered and activated users can see links] [Only registered and activated users can see links] [Only registered and activated users can see links] [Only registered and activated users can see links] [Only registered and activated users can see links]
Password: [Only registered and activated users can see links]
(Check below for two (2) other sets of Tom Demark Videos)
21-08-2013, 02:44 AM
21-08-2013, 08:08 PM
Trading Indicators for the 21th Century (video)
At Last, You Can Discover Secrets Previously Available Only to Big-Money Traders at a Cost of $100,000 or More!
Imagine what it would be like if you could scan the markets and instantly see opportunities that can make you big money. During the last 25 years, Tom DeMark has invented dozens of proprietary technical indicators designed to do just that.
Now Tom has agreed to share his most potent trading weapons in this exciting new workshop available only from Futures Learning Center. Here is what you? ll learn:
Volume 1: Trading Exaggerated Market Moves
Identifying low-risk entry zones in virtually any market How to pinpoint potential trend reversals when a low-risk buy or sell zone has been identified Using Tom? s indicators to locate potential trend reversals Combining Tom? s indicators with additional filters to improve your market timing
Volume 2: Identifying Market Turns Before the Crowd
Identifying tops and bottoms before other traders spot them Applying the two phases of Sequential to price charts Determining if a low-risk buy or sell zone might be successful or if the previous trend will continue? Where to? draw the line? and when to disqualify a previously identified low-risk buy or sell zone before a trade confirmation occurs
Volume 3: Anticipating Trend Changes for Big Profits
How to anticipate potential trend changes more quickly Identifying price exhaustion zones using TD Combo How to use TD Combo with TD Sequential to identify low-risk buy and sell zones An introduction to TDST, Tom? s most significant contribution to market timing Defining trend reversals and support and resistance zones Using TDST to determine whether or not the Countdown phase of TD Sequential or TD Combo will go to completion
Volume 4: Projecting Tops and Bottoms
Calculating and applying TD Trend Factor to price charts Using TD Trend Factor to predict high probability upside and downside objectives Projecting retracements and tops or bottoms using TD Trend Factor Applying Relative Retracement to recent price advances or declines to determine where short - and/or long-term support and resistance levels may occur How to use Absolute Retracement to calculate support levels for markets that are trading at all-time highs
Volume 5: Identifying Real Trendline Breakouts
Using trendline breakouts to create consistent indicators How to identify false breakouts and price exhaustion zones with more precision Identifying and constructing TD Lines and using them to confirm low-risk buy or sell zones Combining TD Diff with TD Open to confirm the identification of TD Sequential and TD Combo low-risk buy and sell zones
Volume 6: Determining the Duration of Market Moves
Using Tom’s indicators to determine the duration of market moves How to use a simple moving average technique to confirm a trend change when a low-risk buy or sell zone has been identified Using TD Channels to alert you to a possible change in the direction of a trend. and how to take advantage of the opportunity when it occurs How to construct your own oscillator using an oscillator? shell? Identifying potential price breakouts using a price compression approach
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Chris Lori - Pro Trader Complete FX Course (12CDs And Ebooks) LS
Chris Lori - Pro Trader Complete FX Course (12CDs And Ebooks) | 6.5GB Genre: Video Training
The Pro Trader Complete FX course, is a result of 9 months of vigorous design and planning in which Forex trading is broken down into simple concepts that can be applied to your trading immediately. The course presents characteristics about the market that could have cost you hundreds of hours and tens of thousands of dollars for you to figure out on your own. This is no exaggeration. This complete course will offer you an extraordinary amount of practical professional knowledge and masterful insights into the Forex market that you simply cannot find anywhere else. You will have the opportunity to learn from a true trading professional by watching over their shoulder and seeing for yourself how they approach each and every trading scenario. This is truly a rare opportunity and we guarantee that you will come away from the course a better and more informed currency trader.
The Pro Trader Complete FX course, is a result of 9 months of vigorous design and planning in which Forex trading is broken down into simple concepts that can be applied to your trading immediately.
24+ Hours of Video Instructions Manual is not included Date of release. desconocido
CD Disk 1 1. Introduction 1.1. Chris Lori Introduction (10:55) 1.2. How to Proceed thru Course (04:03)
2. Forex Basics 2.1. Forex Overview (27:00) 2.2. Order Entry Rules (07:30) 2.3. Order Entry Examples (09:52) 2.4. FX Flows and BIS stats (16:18) 2.5. The Carry Trade Opportunity (07:34) 2.6. Anatomy of a Chart (08:06)
3. Japanese Candlesticks in Forex 3.1. Japanese Candlesticks Useful in Forex (30:35) 3.2. Daily Candlestick Chart Simtrade (04:04) 3.3. 4hr Candlestick Chart Simtrade (03:25) 3.4. 60m Candlestick Chart Simtrade (04:40)
CD Disk 2 4. Support and Resistance 4.1. Introduction to Support and Resistance (05:27) 4.2. Understanding Resistance (07:52) 4.3. Understanding Support (08:07) 4.4. Critical Study of SR Fractals and FX Flows (37:58) 4.5. Real Trade Example of Why SR is Important (11:30) 4.6. SR on a Daily Chart Rules! (07:27) 4.7. Trade within Larger Timeframe SR (04:05) 4.8. Using Smaller Timeframe to Pick Your Ideal Entry (13:38) 4.9. 60m EUR Simtrade (05:44) 4.10. SR Simtrades You Should Consider (16:56) 4.11. Using 15m Fractals to Enter and Exit Trades (08:17) 4.12. Keep an Eye on Your 5m Chart When Managing a Trade (03:47) 4.13. EUR Live Trade and Application of Important SR (37:09)
CD Disk 3 5. Tom DeMark Trend Lines 5.1. Tom DeMark Uptrend Lines (11:59) 5.2. Tom DeMark Uptrend example (06:03) 5.3. Tom DeMark Downtrend Lines (09:16) 5.4. Tom DeMark Downtrend example (06:33)
6. Common Sense Trend Lines 6.1. Common Sense Uptrend Lines (10:09) 6.2. Drawing Short Term TL’s (04:07) 6.3. Trendline Basics (02:43) 6.4. Trendlines and Multiple Timeframes (05:34) 6.5. Common Sense Downtrend Lines (17:36) 6.6. Top Down Analysis and Trend Lines (05:23)
7. MACD in Forex 7.1. MACD Anatomy (08:40) 7.2. What is MACD Positive Divergence (17:47) 7.3. What is MACD Negative Divergence (12:19) 7.4. How to Trade MACD Top Down (07:05) 7.5. MACD GBP Simtrade (08:56) 7.6. MACD CHF Multi Timeframe Divergence (05:31)
CD Disk 4 8. Pivot Points 8.1. Introduction to Pivot Points (07:56) 8.2. Calculating Pivots (04:13) 8.3. Pivot Probabilities in Buy and Sell Zones (33:13) 8.4. Trading Pivots in a Trending Market (17:40) 8.5. Trading Pivots in a Consolidating Market (06:32) 8.6. Pivot Strategy and Key Reversals (02:58)
9. Economic Reports 9.1. What is an Economic Report (03:26) 9.2. Regional Major Market Moving Reports (10:24) 9.3. You Want to Trade NFP? (13:51) 9.4. What Can Happen at Fundy Time (04:35) 9.5. Why The Wild Price Action? (08:45) 9.6. Pay Attention to Global Data Releases and Economics (05:39)
CD Disk 5 10. Daily Highs and Lows 10.1. Importance of Daily Highs and Lows (28:29) 10.2. A Strategy with Consistent Trade Set Ups (15:22) 10.3. GBP 15m a Closer Look at Daily HL’s (07:27) 10.4. GBP 15m Intraday example (08:27) 10.5. EUR 15m a Close Up of the Trade (05:41) 10.6. Look for Key Levels to Converge with Daily HL’s (02:50) 10.7. GBP Volatility is a Favorite (16:03) 10.8. You Prefer EUR, Here You Go (06:52) 10.9. Watch Chris Lori Apply the Strategy Live (37:09)
CD Disk 6 11. Fibonacci Levels - Part I 11.1. Convergence Trading Strategies (12:29) 11.2. Understanding Fibonacci Retracements (14:22) 11.3. Fibonacci Application in UP Trends (16:32) 11.4. Using the Fib Tool in an Up Trend (11:57) 11.5. Fibonacci Application in Down Trends (20:08) 11.6. Using the Fib Tool in a Down Trend (08:31) 11.7. Finding Position Trades with Using Fibs (22:52) 11.8. Fib Convergences for High Probability Trades (06:41) 11.9. Fib Retracement Convergences (06:02) 11.10. Fib Retracement Convergence Examples (07:29) 11.11. Fib Retracement and Extension Levels (15:28)
CD Disk 7 11. Fibonacci Levels - Part II 11.12. Using Fibs to Protect Your Stop (11:45) 11.13. CHF 60m Fib SR TL convergence (02:59) 11.14. EUR Multi Timeframe Simtrade (16:12) 11.15. EURJPY Daily Chart Reversal (04:36) 11.16. GBP 60m Trading the Bounce (02:58) 11.17. Use GBP Volatility with Technicals for Great Entries (03:52) 11.18. GBP 60m Using Multiple Tools to Find a Trade (02:54) 11.19. AUD Up Trend Fib Simtrade (05:30) 11.20. Simtrade Fib Convergence (16:05) 11.21. Fib and Daily High Simtrade (06:20) 11.22. GBPJPY One Move Multiple Trades Multiple Tools (18:02) 11.23. GBP Pennant Breakout Fib SR TL HL Simtrade (20:36) 11.24. CHF FOMC Fibs and SR (01:24) 11.25. Always Watch Your Fib Levels on Daily Charts (02:01) 11.26. GBP Live Trade with Chris Lori (20:00) 11.27. CHF Live Trade with Chris Lori (18:33)
CD Disk 8 12. Equity Management 12.1. ¡Detener! Click Here. Equity Management! (18:34) 12.2. Equity Management Do This! (05:24) 12.3. Equity Management Don’t Do This! (09:21)
13. Ideal Order Entry 13.1. An Absolutely Essential Lesson on Trade Entry (25:31) 13.2. How to Get Good Order Fills Using Your 5m Chart (06:46) 13.3. Getting Good Order Fills Using 15m Chart (05:36) 13.4. Refine Your Entry Thru Top Down Price Dissection (01:51) 13.5. GBP Order Entry Example (04:36) 13.6. Order Entry Technique on Head and Shoulders Pattern (14:24) 13.7. Using Your 60m and 15m to Find Your Best Entry (04:49)
14. Managing Your Trades 14.1. Managing Trades to Build Your Account with Discipline (21:52) 14.2. Manage Your Stop Loss Using Fibs (09:31) 14.3. Managing Short Term Trades Using 15m and 5m Fractals (11:43)
CD Disk 9 15. Position Trading 15.1. Position Trades (18:16) 15.2. EUR Medium Term Position Trade Example (07:09) 15.3. CHF Turning a Short Term Trade into a Position Trade (10:53) 15.4. Using Fibs to Find Position Trades on Long Term Charts (12:57) 15.5. GBP Fib position Trade Entry (14:13) 15.6. EUR Position Simtrade (14:50) 15.7. CAD Daily Chart Position Trade (03:11) 15.8. AUD Use Your Fibs and Tools on Weekly Charts (07:25) 15.9. NZD Weekly Chart Position Trade (14:29)
16. Reversal Formations - Part I 16.1. Head and Shoulders the Easy Way (16:16) 16.2. Head and Shoulders Top Using MACD (19:37) 16.3. Head and Shoulders Bottom Step by Step (15:09)
CD Disk 10 16. Reversal Formations - Part II 16.4. Optimal HS Entries Using Fibs (07:21) 16.5. Pick the HS Bottom with Fib and MACD (14:27) 16.6. Bull Bear Battle Reversals (18:16) 16.7. False Break Reversals (21:48) 16.8. AUD Reversal using Daily High SR and Fibs (12:38) 16.9. BBB 60m EUR Don’t Give Back Pips (01:25) 16.10. BBB 60m GBP Watch “The Figure” (07:40) 16.11. CHF HS 60m Ideal Entry Method (06:16) 16.12. Look at all Tools used to Get Optimal Entry on this HS (19:10) 16.13. EUR 30m HS Short Simtrade (07:15) 16.14. Use Your Pro Entry Technique to get in this HS Reversal (14:24) 16.15. Find the Right Shoulder Using Fibs (15:48) 16.16. GBP HS Fibs Simtrade (16:05) 16.17. AUD 60m False Break Simtrade (05:38)
CD Disk 11 17. Trading Indicators 17.1. Trading Indicators of Choice (14:34) 17.2. Input ATR to Chart (02:10) 17.3. ATR and Your Trading Plan (15:47) 17.4. ATR Volatility and GBP (05:53) 17.5. 10 Simple DMA (12:38) 17.6. 10 Simple DMA Moving Support and Resistance (04:45)
18. Trading GBP, “The Figure” 18.1. Trading GBP, “The Figure” (19:18) 18.2. The Figure GBP 15m Simtrade (04:34) 18.3. Making Money at The Figure GBP Series (07:15) 18.4. Rules to Trading The Figure (02:31)
19. The Pennant 19.1. The Pennant (07:58)
20. Resources 20.1. Bank Reports (06:53) 20.2. Preparing Your Day (15:06) 20.3. Setting Up Your Workspace (07:54)
CD Disk 12 21. Trade Examples 21.1. Trading CAD Top Down (32:52) 21.2. CADJPY and the Price of Oil (08:13) 21.3. EUR Daily Uptrend (12:43) 21.4. GBP Fundies and “The Figure” (14:07) 21.5. GBP Swoon 62 Retracement (12:22) 21.6. GBP Uptrend 38 Retracement (06:15) 21.7. Pennant Break and Fib Convergence (04:04) 21.8. Pennants Fibs and Pivots (06:21) 21.9. Sell 1.9000 GBP! (12:06) 21.10. Stalk Your Trades and Wait for Entry (03:05) 21.11. Watch 1.8630 GBP Fib Convergence (12:04) 21.12. NFP Live GBP Trade (109:38)
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Trade Gold Online with NSFX
Trading Gold
Knowledge of, and trading in Gold is essential to every serious market trader. Gold has a rich history dating back early civilization. As a precious metal, it has been considered a symbol of prosperity and success across many cultures. Throughout the world it has been used primarily as the accepted standard of monetary exchange, which was only abandoned with the establishment of government issued flat currency. Gold continues to remain an important asset, and in modern market terms as a safe haven used by many, in times of economic instability.
NSFX Ltd. offers Gold trading to all individuals. Gold is mainly traded against the USD and EURO, its symbols are XAU/USD OR XAU/EUR. The beginning of the 21th century has witnessed one of the longest and most consistent rises in the gold rate ever recorded. From early market prices of US$ 265 per ounce at the beginning of 2001, to more than US$ 1700 within a decade. The percentage gain translates to a 641% rise, which is a dramatic shift in comparison to the 20-year long bear market that had existed previously.
* The performance figures quoted refer to the past and past performance is not a guarantee of future performance or a reliable guide to future performance.
WHY TRADE GOLD THROUGH NSFX?
NSFX Ltd. recognizes how important trading Gold is to any investor who takes the market seriously. As a result NSFX understands how important it is to provide the trader with the best possible market conditions.
Fast Execution & Tightest Spreads Available.
Trading Gold via Multiple Platforms (Web, Desktop, Mobile).
Balanced Leverage and Exposure. 1:100. 1% of transaction value.
Flexibility of trading fixed spread Gold or variable ECN spread
Gold Trading Conditions
1 Lot (100 ounce)
Gold Trading Hours
Gold is traded from Sunday at 23:00 GMT to Friday at 20:00 GMT. It is important to note that there is a daily break in gold trading services between 21:00 GMT and 22:00 GMT, market trading in Gold resumes at 22:00 GMT. During the break period, no trading, or placement of orders will be possible.
Margin Requirements for Gold Positions
In a standard 1:100 leveraged trade, 1% of the transaction value must be set aside to cover the margin requirement. As a result, for every $1 in your account you are able to control $100 in the market.
Gold Trading Examples
Beyond definitions, it’s essential to see how Gold positions look in the actual market. The most straightforward way is by going through the calculations involved.
Let’s take a 10 ounce XAU/USD (“Mini-Lot” or 0.1 Lot) position bought at a market price of $1700 per/ounce. The USD value of the position will be: 10 ounces X $1700= $17,000. With a margin requirement of 1% (1:100 leverage) the result will be $170 required to open the position.
Now, let’s take a 100 ounce XAU/EURO (1.0 Standard Lot) position bought at a market price of €1320 per/ounce. The Euro value of the position will be: 100 ounces X €1320= €132,000. With a margin requirement of 1% (1:100 leverage) the result will €1,320 required to open the position.
Gold CFD Rollover (Swaps)
In both commodities and foreign exchange markets a rollover/swap, is the interest that is added or deducted in order to secure an open position overnight. Rollover/swap rates are calculated as the overnight interest rate differential between the two currencies on which the position is held comes due, depending on the position type (Buy (Long) / Sell (Short).
* Please Note: All rollover fees for all CFD's including: 'Gold','Crude-Oil','Silver' & 'Indices' will be charged a 1% flat fee.
It is important to consider the following aspects of rollover/swap charges:
Rollover/Swaps are charged on client’s Forex accounts only on the positions kept open into the next forex trading day
The rollover process begins at the end of the US market trading session.
The Gold rates below are calculated and based on USD accounts per 1 standard lot
The rollover/swaps are calculated and applied on every trading night. On Wednesday night rollover/swaps are charged at a triple rate(please read through explanation below)
Some additional information regarding Precious Metal Rollover/Swaps
At NSFX rollovers are dealt with on a "spot" basis only. Meaning that all positions are settled two business days from inception, as per market rules. NSFX will not facilitate actual physical delivery of either precious metals/currency. As a result, all positions that are open from 23:59:45GMT to 23:59:59GMT (Server time) are rolled over to a new value date. These trades are then charged or credited the relevant rollover as shown in the table above.
Very Important: When an open trade is rolled over from Wednesday to Thursday on trade, the new value date shifts to Monday of the next week. As a result, the rollover charge on Wednesday evenings will always be three times the value shown in the above table. In general it should be understood that in the case of factoring in weekends and holidays, the rollover/swap is multiplied by the number of days of the rollover.
* The above illustrations are mere fictitious examples and are not to be construed in any way to constitute investment advice.
** The performance figures quoted are only estimates and may not be reliable indicator of future performance of this investment and may not be a reliable indicator
*** This information does not constitute an offer or solicitation and is provided for information shall not be deemed to constitute advice and should not be relied on as such to enter into a transaction or for any investment decision. Any opinions expressed in this document represent the views of NSFX at the time of preparation. They are thus subject to change without notice. NSFX believes that the information contained herein is accurate as at the date of publication. However, no warranty of accuracy is given by NSFX and no liability in respect of any errors or omissions, including any third party liability, are accepted by NSFX or any director, officer or employee.
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ACCOUNTING IN THE 21st CENTURY
by Robert K Elliott Partner, KPMG LLP November 2, 1998
[Introductory note: Robert K. Elliott is a partner in KPMG LLP in New York. He is the vice chair of the AICPA Board of Directors for 1998-1999, and will serve as chairman for 1999-2000. He currently chairs the AICPA Strategic Planning Committee and Strategic Planning Advisory Subcommittee. He previously chaired the AICPA Special Committee on Assurance Services ("Elliott Committee") and the Oversight Board of the New York City Elections Project. He has served as a member of the AICPA Board of Directors as well as several committees of AICPA. He has also served as a vice president of the American Accounting Association and as a member of the SEC Advisory Committee on Capital Formation and Regulatory Processes and the Accounting Education Change Commission. He is currently a member of the Board of Trustees of the KPMG Foundation and the Big 5 National Steering Committee for Legislative Action.
Named as one of "The 100 Most Influential People in Accounting" by Accounting Today for four consecutive years, Mr. Elliott was profiled as a "Leading Big Six Professional" by Professional Services Review in 1995. He is the recipient of numerous awards and honors, including the AICPA Gold Medal Award for Distinguished Service (1997) and the Journal of Accountancy Literary Award (1995). He holds an AB from Harvard University and an MBA from Rutgers University, and is the author or co-author of more than 80 books and articles.]
Thank you for coming out this evening and for giving me a chance to talk to you about accounting in the 21st century.
What I want to do for the next 45 minutes or so is go through four areas. I want to talk about the accounting profession's past, which I would characterize as a glorious past. Then, we will come to the present, which I would characterize as parlous or somewhat dangerous, because we face significant choices. If we make the right choices, we can look forward to a fabulous future as a profession. Then I want to spend a little bit of time on what it is that we're going to have to do in order to get to that future and realize those opportunities.
Let's start with a very short history. If you think about it very much at all, you realize that it would have been impossible to have an industrial revolution without an adequate accounting infrastructure. Accounting enabled large-scale enterprises to form.
If you think about the debits and credits, the debits in accounting transactions represent the benefits that company gets in an exchange transaction, and the credits represent the sacrifices. So by making these simple credit and debit entries, we can track contracts from agreement to partial execution to full execution, and it gives us a very convenient way to keep track of a large bundle of contracts. A large bundle of contracts is nothing more or less than a corporation, and a corporation is what's required in order to aggregate the capital, build the factories, or outfit the ships, to have a mercantile and industrial revolution. I don't say that accounting caused the industrial revolution, but I do say there could have been no industrial revolution without an accounting infrastructure to support it.
The accounting infrastructure permitted the companies to measure and communicate, both within and outside. It facilitated planning and decision making, and it allowed enterprises to fulfill their accountability obligations.
Those are all good things. And later on, auditing practice added to accounting. You can find references to auditing in the Bible and before that, but auditing as we know it today developed in the 19th century as a way of adding additional reliability to accounting reports for the benefit of absentee owners. They needed to make sure that the managers on the spot were not ripping the owners off.
The audit also provided another set of benefits. I already pointed to the ability to do planning and control. Another benefit is that releasing high quality information reduces corporations' cost of capital. Think about people who are putting money into an enterprise. Whether they are investors or creditors, they want to be rewarded for the risks that they are taking. So they want to charge an amount for the capital that's proportionate to the risk that they are assuming. Part of the risk is economic risk, and part of it is information risk; that is, it's the risk premium that investors and creditors have to charge because they are not sure about the true facts about the enterprise. They put in a risk premium to compensate for that. The more high quality information the enterprise gives, the lower the information risk, the lower the price investors and creditors charge, and, therefore, the lower the capital cost of the enterprise. That's a huge benefit.
What we do also improves liquidity. What is liquidity? Often, people think that liquidity is a function of having lots of buyers and sellers in the market. If you have that, you have a liquid market, but it's really more subtle than that. Liquidity has to do with the size of the bid-ask spreads and number of transactions. Where you have wide bid-ask spreads, relatively few transactions take place, and you have illiquidity. Where you have narrow bid-ask spreads, lots of transactions take place. Let me give you a couple of examples of that. I have an oil painting by Rembrandt and I'd like to sell it to you. Now, you're thinking, "If it's really by Rembrandt, and if he is telling the truth, it's worth a great deal of money; but if it's not by Rembrandt, it may not be worth much money at all." What are you going to do when you make me an offer for it? You're going to provide for the possibility that you don't have the right information. You're going to have a low-ball bid; I know you're going to do that, so I raise my asking price. A big bid-ask spread opens up, and what you can notice in the market for old master oil paintings is that the bid-ask spread is typically a third of the price or more. As a result, very few of them change hands.
It's a very illiquid market. ¿Por qué? Because buyers and sellers have very different information from each other about the quality of the goods. That's called information asymmetry.
Look at another market, the market for Government bonds. There, both buyers and sellers have lots of information, and, in fact, they each have the same information. Therefore, what you see in the trade of Government bonds is that the bid-ask spread is measured in a few basis points. These transactions take place all the time. The bonds trade in the trillions of dollars a year. You have a liquid market as a function of low information asymmetry.
In effect, what we do as a profession by providing both buyers and sellers of securities with relatively similar information about the securities is we reduce bid-ask spreads, making a more liquid market. Is that good or is that bad? What happens is the liquidity in the marketplace permits capital to seek its highest and best use.
Let me give you some examples from other economies. In Germany, capital is not essentially allocated by a transparent stock market. It is essentially allocated by the banks, and you have a very opaque environment. There isn't much disclosure, and the banks tend to sit on investments. What happens, therefore, is the German economy is essentially an industrial economy. You think about German products and you think about automobiles, steel, and chemicals.
Look at the Japanese economy. Although there is a stock market, that's not really where the capital is allocated; it's allocated by the Keiretsu. A group of companies take care of each other; mistakes are forgiven; and they too sit on investments for a long time, whether they are good investments or not. So you don't have a lot of capital movement, and it's basically another industrial economy, making things.
In the United States economy, where we have very liquid markets and where capital can seek its highest and best use, capital has moved away from industrial enterprises toward post-industrial enterprises, away from U. S. Steel and toward Microsoft. High liquidity facilitates redeploying assets to their most productive uses. So the United States economy, the most advanced economy, the most post-industrial economy in the world, is largely that way as a result of the liquidity in the financial markets, which is a function to some extent of the high quality of accounting and auditing information available in that marketplace.
The audit function also adds market trust. Traders can go into the market and trade with confidence that they are facing a fair game.
I tell you these things, that accounting has created enormous benefits, but then I am an interested observer, right? I'm one of those CPAs myself. How do you know that I'm not putting it on here?
I'm going to share a couple of quotations from the May/June issue of Foreign Affairs. This is a high-brow magazine that's oriented to people who are interested in foreign affairs, diplomacy, and so on. If you picked up a copy of that magazine, would you expect to see much information there on accounting? Probablemente no. But I'm going to cite quotes from a single issue of this magazine just to illustrate my point.
In one article on Japan, the author says, "Meanwhile, a variety of other gimmicks have appeared to improve balance sheets and thereby prevent public recognition of weakness or insolvency." What the author is saying is that the lack of high quality accounting leads to a situation where there isn't a facing up to the bubble economy, to the bad debts on the banks' balance sheets, and so forth. The author is attributing a lot of the financial malaise in Japan to a lack of high quality accounting.
An article on India in the same journal says, "Retail investors are scared away by the stock market scams. The resulting high cost of capital makes Indian industry in exports less competitive." Remember I said earlier that high quality information reduces the cost of capital? Here's a perfect example. Here's an economy in which people don't believe the information they get. They charge exorbitantly high costs to lend capital or invest capital in companies. It means that Indian companies have very high capital costs, so they are not competitive with companies in other countries.
The third quotation from Foreign Affairs is about Russia. It is by Grigory Yavlinsky, who says, "Open accounting that meets international standards is a prerequisite to controlling corruption." A different angle, right? You can't have an honest business environment if you don't have honest, high quality accounting. So another benefit of high quality accounting is that it helps prevent corruption.
Here's an author referring to the United States 100 years ago. This author says, "The United States economy between the Civil War and the First World War was notoriously crisis-prone, nor were catastrophes like the Panic of 1873 pure accidents; they were made much more likely by a business and political culture in which petty things like scrupulous accounting were disdained." In other words, when we didn't have a good accounting infrastructure in the United States, we had an environment characterized by panic.
Unlike Asians in particular, Americans know more or less what the is being done with their money. Accounting systems in the United States strive for clear corporate information. No other country's financial system reflects such a willingness to bring financial problems to the surface. From A Second American Century by Mortimer B. Zuckerman
My fifth quotation is again about the United States, but now we're fast-forwarding to today. This author says, "Unlike the Asians in particular, Americans know more or less what is being done with their money. Accounting systems in the United States strive for clear corporate information. No other country's financial system reflects such a willingness to bring financial problems to the surface."
These are not the observations of accountants; these are the observations of people interested in foreign affairs who look at good accounting as part of the solution and poor accounting as part of the problem in various countries. So much for our glorious past.
Let's turn to the present, which I have characterized as parlous. I start with a megatrend from the outside -- information technology. As everybody is aware, the cost and size of all the components of information technology are plummeting. That's Moore's Law at work. Chip density doubles every eighteen months. What happens over time is you get lower and lower and lower costs for central processors, for communications, for sensors, for memory, all these components. The price is plummeting.
At the same time, the power and integration is going up. It's skyrocketing exponentially. It's hard to believe that three years ago, none of us were on the Internet. Today we take it for granted. The network has become ubiquitous. We have anytime, anywhere information. We literally have an office in a briefcase.
That's today. Think what happens if we project those same rates of change forward into the future and the enormous consequences they're going to have. People in this room have more computing power on their wrists than took the first astronauts to the moon. Think what that means if you project that forward for another thirty years, when you would literally have on your wrist or maybe even sewn into your body more computing power than exists in the world today. That's what's going on.
We all know about that, but what's important are the implications for business. Business takes information technology and uses it. The strategic leaders use it in strategic ways. They use technology to get closer to their customers. Now let me explain what I mean by that. Here we have a person at a point in time experiencing a need for something, some product or service. Here's a bunch of vendors at different points in time who can fulfill that need. Who gets the business? The one who can fulfill the need fastest, the one who can shrink the time-space gap between the emergence of a need and its fulfillment.
What is information technology about? The computing side of it is about shrinking time. It's taking calculations that used to take months and doing them in nanoseconds. The communications piece of technology is about shrinking space. It's about making it possible to do business around the world for anybody, at any time. Information technology is about shrinking time and space, and the competitive gain is about shrinking the time-space gap between the emergence of a need and its fulfillment.
Information technology is not just a tool of modern business; it is the fundamental tool. Leadership companies use the technology to get closer and closer to their customers in fulfilling their needs. They use the technology to demassify products and services.
Cost and size down--way down
Processors
Comunicaciones
Memoria
Sensors
Power and integration up--way up
Network ubiquitous
Anytime-anywhere information
"Office in a briefcase"
The whole idea of the industrial era was mass production. Everybody could enjoy driving around in a model-T Ford for only $500 because of mass production, but the flip side was that everybody got the same model-T-black. It looked the same, and it was the same. With information technology, you can, in effect, get away from mass production to mass customization. You can provide each and every customer with his or her own model. You can go to the automobile dealer, punch the buttons on the computer, and select from literally quadrillions of permutations of make, model, style, and colors.
Under the old idea, mass production, one size fits all, the Wall Street Journal editor read all the news feeds and decided what went into the paper. You can take it or leave it, even today. That's the mass product, but the demassified product is logging onto the Dow Jones News Service to see all the news feeds. You set the filters in place that deliver you a daily newspaper that responds to your interest, one that's different from every other newspaper in the world.
I could add many examples, but you get the point. You use the technology to deliver a different product or service to every single customer. Then, of course, you use the technology to improve quality, to constantly, continuously improve quality, and to go global and have world-spanning organizations. That's what the strategic leaders do.
Now the followers are faced with this dilemma: They can learn to do these things themselves, emphasize quality, decrease the cycle time to get designer products to market and deliver them to the customers. They can use the technology to focus on the creation of value, go global themselves, downsize, get rid of excess resources, go into partnerships and alliances to pick up the resources that they are missing, and make strategic use of it themselves. That's one choice. They can elect to do that, or they can go broke; that's the other choice.
Now let's focus, in this new environment, on the financial statements that we prepare under generally accepted accounting principles. These financial statements have been designed by the FASB and its predecessors to describe the industrial-era enterprise, the enterprise that creates value by physically manipulating tangible property like raw materials and turning them, by the application of energy and labor, into finished goods, then pushing the finished goods down the line to customers physically. What you see on those financial statements are the very tangible assets of that process. You see the raw material, the work in process, the finished goods. You see machinery and equipment. You see the buildings and the land.
That's what's on the financial statements, but post-industrial enterprises run on a different set of assets. They basically run on intangible assets, such as the capacity of innovation, research and development, human resources, information and know-how, brand equity, relations with customers and vendors, and relations with employees. These intangible assets drive the post-industrial firm, and none of them are on the balance sheet at all. We don't account for them.
Post-industrial enterprises run on intangible assets.
Información
Research and development
Capacity for innovation
Human resources
. which are not in the financial statements
Now you're thinking, "Okay, but those are just the post-industrial enterprises. Most of American economy is still making things-automobiles, steel, food." Well, let me tell you, two percent of the American work force is involved in growing things on farms, and ten percent of the American work force is involved in making things in factories. The rest of the work force is doing something else. Seventy percent are involved in the creation, distribution, or use of information. The economy has basically become information-oriented. Even industrial enterprises are no longer strictly tangible-goods companies.
Let me give you an example: Motorola. It's a manufacturing company, so it should be described by an industrial accounting model. Let's look into that. Say you go down to the store and buy a Motorola cellular phone that costs $100. How much of the $100 was for the physical content of the phone? There is less than a penny's worth of sand, turned into silicon. There is less than two cents worth of copper, to make the wires to connect things. There is less than a nickel's worth of oil, turned into a plastic box. What is the rest of the $100? Software, research and development, innovation, brand equity, information. Manufacturing companies are putting out more and more products that are post-industrial. They too run on assets that are not in the financial statements.
Let's took at it graphically, on this slide. In the past, a company's value-producing assets were largely tangible. There were intangible assets, but tangible assets dominated. So at this end of the spectrum, think of United States Steel. You've got steel mills, blast furnaces, land, piles of coal. But the emergent economy is basically working on intangible assets.
At the other end of the spectrum, think Microsoft and think of Microsoft's balance sheet. I guarantee you, Microsoft's balance sheet has nothing of interest on it whatsoever. What are the assets of Microsoft that comprise the balance sheet? A couple of diskettes, probably not even much land. Where is the some $300 billion of Microsoft's market value? It's between the ears of Microsoft's people, not on the balance sheet.
Don't get me wrong; I'm not saying that we should take these intangible assets and turn them into debit and credit entries, but I am saying that ignoring them in the accounting model is a fatal mistake, because what we're doing with these grand financial statements is producing what's in the left-hand column. We're producing periodic historical cost basis financial statements, five terms to describe what we provide as accountants, but look at the right-hand column and you will see the way in which people are used to getting information in every other information domain besides accounting.
Periodic? No. People don't want periodic information. They want to log on and get the information they want on demand. They want up-to-the-minute, if not forward-looking, cost bases. I'm not saying they want to know the current value of the assets as much as I'm saying they want to know the capacity of this basket of assets to make customers better off, to create value for customers.
Sure they want financial information, but they want much more than that: They want to be able to look behind it and see the operating data that lie behind those numbers, see the leading indicators, see the non-financial performance indicators that management itself is using increasingly to run the enterprise, things like customer satisfaction, product and process quality, measures of innovation-those types of things.
Then, the last word in this five-part set is the word statements." We're referring to general purpose financial statements. General purpose financial statements means the information is not exactly what the investors need, not exactly what the creditors need, not exactly what the managers need, not exactly what the regulators need, not exactly what the tax man needs. It's not exactly what anybody needs. It's a compromise.
But today, we actually have the capacity to go in and find out what we want on demand. This trick of summarizing a complex enterprise in two pages, a balance sheet and an income statement, is a neat trick we learned as accountants 500 years ago or so. It was a pretty good trick when people could hardly come into the enterprise, thumb through the journals and ledgers, and form their own impression of the enterprise.
But today, users can literally come in and thumb through the journals and ledgers themselves. I don't mean with their thumbs, but with their software. They have the ability to come in and express their information demands and get them met in the format that they need, drill down, and get whatever they want when they want it.
What I am saying is that this left-hand column is not a formula for success in the future. In fact, it leads to something we might call a loss of decision-information market share.
On this graph, what I show, over the extent of the 20th century, is the information content of financial statements available to decision makers. It has been going up somewhat during the century as a result of higher standards, better accounting, better practice, and so forth. Actually, those show a tailing off at the end of the century. That's what I was talking about earlier. These financial statements don't describe the Microsofts and the other post-industrial enterprises.
Looked at this way, the information content of financial statements is declining. At the same time, we have other information. At the beginning of the century, you would certainly need information outside the financial statements to decide whether to commit money to the enterprise as either an investor or a creditor, but a relatively large percent of what we needed could come from the financial statements. You always need some other information, but the financial statements supply a relatively large part of what is needed.
As the century goes on, though, low-tech information intermediaries emerged, people like Moodys, Standard & Poors, and Dun & Bradstreet. Later in the century, you get an explosion of other sources of information because of electronic databases now on line. So while the total information that creditors and investors have is exploding, the piece that we as accountants are involved in preparing and auditing is flat at best, perhaps even declining, but either way, it's a loss of relative market share.
That's why I say we're facing a parlous present. Yet, I have the temerity to tell you there is a great future in front of us. How so? How do I get there?
First, there are some enormous megatrends in our favor. One megatrend is the change from an industrial to an information or post-industrial economy. We as the information people should be able to figure out how to take advantage of the shift to an information economy. Unless we're foolish or lack creativity, that megatrend actually operates in our favor. A second megatrend is that all around the world, people of every type are expressing less and less trust in institutions, businesses, governments, and people. More and more, they want accountability for the money they are investing or contributing, for resources managed by others, and for relationships. They want to be told about what's happening with their trusted inputs.
These demands for accountability express themselves in many ways, but we as the accountability people should be able to figure out how to take advantage of the trend. That's what we supply. If people are demanding more of it, that's good for us.
The third megatrend is that information technology is making markets so much more competitive. You have probably heard this comparison: an Internet year to a regular year is like a dog year to a human year. This enormously speedy change creates turmoil everywhere. That should be good for us. We should be able to step in and help resolve the turmoil by bringing some information discipline to it. What we have to do is figure out how to harness these megatrends.
This cube represents the product of the revenue opportunities for the accounting profession as we now see them. Let me describe its three dimensions. First is a "who" dimension, meaning who is it that we're serving, who are the customers that we're making better off? The "what" dimension refers to what are we doing to make the customers better off; what services are we providing? Then there's a "how" dimension, which refers to the technologies we employ in order to provide the services. In order to get into those future opportunities, we need to figure out how to relax the boundaries in each of those dimensions.
With respect to the first, or "who," dimension, we need to appeal to a larger set of customers than we do as accountants and management accountants. The people who deal with accounting systems inside companies basically see their customers as the enterprise's management. That's too narrow a set of customers. Every single worker in a modern enterprise is an information customer who needs high quality, up-to-date information. If we think of ourselves as financial accountants, the people who prepare financial reports for investors and creditors, then we see them as our customers. But how about other customers like the enterprise's own vendors, and customers, and people, and regulators, and Government, and community? We need to think about a much broader set of customers we can serve.
Regarding the second dimension, the "what" dimension, we need to think of a broader array of services, not just financial statements but the full range of information, including on-line real-time information and nonfinancial information.
On the "how" dimension, we need to rethink our technologies. The technologies we use to prepare batch information and then audit it after the fact is a kind of obsolete technology in many respects. What we need to think about are new uses of technology that permit us to generate much more information of higher reliability, available on-line in real-time. So we need to think about the technology dimension as well.
One of the nice things about this model being geometric and cubic is that as you relax the constraints in each of the three dimensions, the volume of opportunity is going up by the cube. That creates this enormous opportunity space. Let's look at new customers, new services, and new technologies, and I will illustrate with a service that the accounting profession is rolling out right now-CPA WebTrust.
The idea here is that electronic commerce isn't taking off as fast as people think it should. There is enormous capacity, but it hasn't been realized. There could be billions and trillions of dollars of commerce going on out there. Why isn't it taking off faster? You ask consumers that question and they tell you, "Well, we really would like to deal with these people, but we don't know it's a real company. Even if it is a real company, we don't know if they will get the transaction right, and even if they do that, we don't know that they won't misuse our own personal data." So here's a service that addresses those three dimensions. This is a bona fide company. There is transaction integrity, and they won't misuse your personal data. You see this on a Web page. It's a hot link. Click it, and you can see the accountants' report and you can get to the methods that are used.
Here's an actual example from the Web for a company called Resource Marketing. The WebTrust seal gives the customers assurance before they put in their Visa or Mastercard numbers. You hit that link, and you can drill down to a report. A small firm happens to have issued this WebTrust seal. Notice that the criteria and assertions are hot links, so you can drill down and find out more and more about them.
This product serves new customers-individuals doing business on the Web. It's also a new assurance technology, not after-the-fact checking, detection, and correction. It's looking at the systems to make sure that they will produce these types of results in real-time for future customers.
WebTrust illustrates that these opportunities that I've been telling you about are real. The megatrends that I mentioned are strongly in our favor. Clients and employers have information needs; we know that from interviewing them. We found out that they are quite aware that they are forced to deal with information of lower quality than what they want and need. There were 90 cases of that. So they have the needs that we as a profession can meet.
We have unexploited permissions. Customers would be willing to turn to us for these types of additional services because they trust us. They think we do good work. So we have unexploited permissions. That creates the clear possibility of double-digit growth in the foreseeable future.
Now you're saying, "Yes, but you're having double-digit growth now," right? But the double-digit growth that we're having now as a profession is largely in consulting. What I am saying here is that this double-digit growth can also be in the rest of the profession, the part that's dealing with the production and auditing of information. The question is, what do we have to do in order to take advantage of these opportunities?
In order to explain that to you, let me focus for a few minutes on a project that the AICPA has just completed. We were interested in a future vision for the accounting profession-where we should be going. We noticed that the Canadian Institute Chartered Accountants had gone through a process to develop a vision for their profession in Canada a year or two before we started this. We thought it was a great vision. A year went by, and we checked back and asked, "How's it going? Is your vision getting traction with your members in Canada?" Answer: "No." They reject it. It's not theirs. It's forced on them by the leadership and doesn't suit them.
So we said to ourselves, "Okay, top-down doesn't work; let's try the opposite approach. Let's get a random sample from our members." We did that in every one of the 50 states in order not to contaminate the findings. We didn't put anybody from the AlCPA leadership in there. We had outside facilitators. These people got together and came up with a vision. If you're interested in reading it, it's on a Web site. You can get as much detail as you like. A total of 177 member groups evaluated the environment, the threats, the opportunities, where they saw the CPA profession in the future, and how we were going to get there.
Let me tell you what we found. First, the 177 versions were boiled down a little at a time until we got one national version representative of what these 3,000 members said. They saw CPAs as the people who can make sense of a changing and complex world. That's pretty broad. That's a lot broader than people who prepare financial statements and tax returns. It's general, at the 100,000-foot level.
What happens when you drill down to the 40,000-foot level and try to put a little more shape to that? Here's what they said in their vision statement for the year 2011: CPAs are the trusted professionals who enable people and organizations to shape their future. Financial statements might be a part of that, but lots of other things will be a part of that as well because we want to do what helps people achieve their future.
Combining insight with integrity, CPAs deliver value. They listed four bullets: One is communicating a total picture with clarity and objectivity. Second is translating complex information into critical knowledge. Third is anticipating and creating opportunities. That sounds a little more creative than what most people think of when they think of accountants. And fourth is designing pathways that transform vision into reality.
Let me take those four bullets and recast them a bit for you. I want to start here with the information value chain. You have probably seen this in some form or another, but here's the idea. At the left end of this chain, we've got business events and transactions taking place, but we don't know anything about them yet, so the first thing we do is record them. Now we have data about them, and we can begin to take a look at what happened. We take the data, refine and combine it with other information, and we have more than data -- we have information, information from the outside and so forth. That turns into knowledge, and we use that knowledge in order to make wise decisions -- consumption decisions or welfare, political, and social decisions. Any type of decision.
So as you move up the information value chain, you get to higher and higher value activity. The person who sits there at shipping, taking down and recording things going in and out, creating data, is earning what? Perhaps ten dollars an hour. That's what you get for actually creating data. Then you move up to the 30 people who get $100 an hour because they are transforming data into information and refining information into knowledge.
Now let's take those four bullets that I showed you here and locate them on this value chain. The first was communicating the picture with clarity and objectivity. That's down here at this level. The conversion of data and information -- good work, pays decent, but a lot of that is being made redundant by technology. It's not going to be great work too far into the future. The next bullet is translating information into knowledge. That falls right here; that's higher value. People who do that get paid more.
The third bullet is creating opportunities. That lies even further up the value chain, and those people get paid even more. The fourth is designing the pathways that permit people to achieve their vision, and that's where you're up at the top of the value chain. So 3,000 members told us they aspire to move their practice up the information value chain. We also asked, "What do you think are the core values of the accounting profession?" These were the top five that they listed: First, a commitment to continuing education and lifelong learning. Second, competence. They think that whatever they are doing, they must be highly competent at it. Third, integrity -- stands to reason. The reputation of the accounting profession rests on people believing that we have integrity, and that rests on CPAs having integrity. Fourth, they list attunement to broad business issues, not just narrow green-eye shade focus on the numbers, but a holistic view of the enterprise. Fifth, objectivity, which is different from integrity. You can have one or the other or both, but objectivity is the neutrality, trustworthiness. So these are the top five values.
Now look at what our numbers showed as the services with the highest potential in the future. The first one was assurance and information integrity services. They extend the historical audit function, taking in a much broader domain. The second is technology. They see technology services as something that's really going to be high value-added and demanded well into the future. Third, management consulting and performance management. Obvious, right? The fourth is financial planning, helping people to achieve their financial objectives. And fifth, they see the world economy as global and see in that enormous opportunities for international services, much more than we have exploited in the past.
Our members also identified the capabilities that CPAs would need to have in order to succeed in taking advantage of the opportunities they identified. Number one was communications and leadership skills. Number two, strategic and critical thinking skills. You can't get up the value chain if you're just thinking about the production of debits and credits; you have to think strategically, the way the management of the enterprise thinks.
The third needed competency is a focus on customer, client, and market. We talked earlier about mass production, where the producer tries to drive down the price and isn't too concerned whether the product meets specific customer needs. Demassification is where you turn around and face every problem from the customer's perspective. You have to turn around and face the whole thing from the customer's perspective or you won't get the right answer.
The fourth competency is the interpretation of convergent information, by which they mean the ability to interpret both financial and non-financial information. If you only see one side of the picture, you don't have the full story. Fifth, you have to have high technology skills to succeed in this environment. When vision-project participants talk technology skills, they are not talking about the ability to run a PC, do a spreadsheet, and make a Powerpoint presentation; they're talking about a fundamental understanding of how technology reshapes organizations, products, services, and markets, and about the risks of employing technology and the ways in which to control those risks. They are talking about business implications of technology, not just the ability to run applications or deploy software. Those are necessary, but not sufficient in order to succeed.
The vision-project participants mentioned obstacles to achieving this vision-problems we have to solve and issues we have to deal with. One is that we can't get anywhere if the customers don't believe we can do it. So they held that future success would be based on public perceptions of our ability and roles. The second issue is that we've got to become as a profession much more market-driven than we are. Third, we have to be less dependent on traditional accounting and auditing services and focus more on high-value services like consulting. Fourth, you can't face this marketplace as a generalist very well in the future. You've got to specialize in some area. You need the breadth to see problems as a whole, but you also have to have the skills to be able to solve problems in some specialized domain. Fifth, these CPAs are saying that as a profession, they don't think we're sufficiently global in our perspective and outlook. That's an issue as well.
So these are the things that our members are telling us. This is not the leadership of the AICPA telling us what to do; it's the members of the AICPA telling the leaders what to do. That doesn't mean that if the AICPA does those things, the game is won, because other actions are necessary as well. Some actions have to be taken at the level of firms, both industrial firms and CPA practice firms. Since I am in practice and I'm familiar with what we have to do in our firm and firms like it, I'll focus on them.
The first thing that firms have to do in order to realize these opportunities is to adopt a customer focus for the auditing product. The customers are not only the clients, but the investors and creditors out there who are the end users of the information. If we're not making those people better off, we're not going to have much of a job in the future. The second thing is that firms have to build competencies, particularly in the technology area but in some others as well. The third thing is that we have to take our existing product offerings and invest them with higher and higher value. We have to make them more valuable to the customers, and we have to show our customers and clients our capacity to create value.
When they think of CPAs, we don't want them to think only of people who prepare the financial statements and tax returns; we want them to think of CPAs as the people who help them shape their future. Those firms that don't have a research and development arm oriented to finding out customer needs and creating service opportunities to fulfill those needs will have to create one.
Big firms like mine can do that. We can have a big department that does product development. Smaller firms, though, might have a partner whose job it is to continually survey the pipeline of new product and service offerings, to find out which ones are good for the firm, and to help the firm take advantage of them. But one way or another, each firm has to address this stream of opportunities aggressively.
Finally, it's not enough to study opportunities. You have go out and perform these new types of services, because in the process of doing this and serving customers, you get feedback and the feedback will tell you what you're doing wrong and right. So study is good, but action is better in terms of getting these things done.
Not only do firms have to do these things, but each individual has to think about what he or she needs to do to prepare for this environment. Each individual has to make the mental shift from a production side to a consumption side, from the side of the person who produces financial statements to the side of the person who consumes information. If you can mentally put yourself in that person's shoes, then you can, in fact, serve more capably.
It's much like riding a bicycle. You can read about riding a bicycle, and you can watch videotapes about riding a bicycle. When you get on a bicycle, you're going to fall over a few times, but when you finally get the trick, you never lose it for the rest of your life. That's the same thing here. When you finally get the trick of thinking about everything from the consumption side, from the customer's side, you will never again think about any problem other than from that angle. It's something that you either have or don't have. If you don't have it, you need to work on it.
Another thing that we need to develop is a more strategic perspective. It's not something that's had a high position in accounting curriculums or practice in the past, but it is something that I find that CPAs have a latent capacity to do. It just hasn't been exercised very much. When you take CPAs out of the grind of daily activities, they can think strategically pretty well. So if you haven't done that yourself, you need to do that. You need, obviously, to develop technology competence, and, as I said earlier, that is much more than just the grammar of being able to run PCs, networks, and whatnot; it's more the poetry of knowing how the technology is used to reshape the business environment.
Finally, if you haven't done it, you need to make a commitment to continuous learning because the information you have right now will be totally obsolete in five years, if not less. If you don't have an intentional learner's attitude, you're going to have difficulty.
Now, to begin to summarize, I've put the definition of accounting from Webster's on a slide. Webster says accounting is the system of reporting and summarizing business and financial transactions in books and analyzing, verifying, and reporting the results. Does that sound sexy or not?
Achieve the vision and we'll.
Improve our position as information experts
Contribute more to the economy
Attract the best new talent
Improve our standing as a profession in society
Serve the public interest
Prosper
That's what Webster says, but I would submit to you that there's a different way to think about it. I would define accounting as the information infrastructure necessary for an organization to achieve its objectives. It includes the system that generates financial information, but it includes much more. If you can actually internalize that notion, there is no upside limit to what you can achieve. You as an accountant would become a person who enables an entity to achieve its objectives through the strategic use of information and information systems.
If we can do all this -- if you and I and our firms and institutions can do all this -- all sorts of benefits await us. We'll improve our position as information experts; we'll make a bigger contribution to the American economy; we'll attract new talent to the profession; we'll improve our standing as a profession in society; we'll serve the public interest much better than ever; and we'll prosper as well.
The purpose of the paper is to re-examine the value of multiculturalism and develop an argument that it is a key policy not only for nation-building, but also for ensuring a more inclusive, equal and democratic society for Canadian citizens. First, the paper introduces the historical development of multiculturalism, emphasizing the evolving meaning of multiculturalism. A meaningful evaluation of multiculturalism requires us to reframe the understanding or interpretation of the policy in the twenty-first century Canadian context where the domestic and international situations have changed tremendously in the last forty years. With this context in mind, the paper explores in what directions multiculturalism should be developed along with other Canadian values such as equality and democracy. Finally, a working argument is put forward with a vision to broadening the scope of multiculturalism, with strong emphasis on ethno-religious diversity, to include all types of cultures, so that every citizen is drawn into an inclusive and collective process in which Canada charts its discourse of national identity and nationalism.
Le but de cet article est de réexaminer la valeur du multiculturalisme en soutenant qu'il forme une politique essentielle non seulement pour l'édification de la nation, mais aussi pour garantir qu'une société soit plus tolérante, égalitaire et démocratique. L'article présente en premier lieu le développement historique du multiculturalisme, en particulier en mettant l'accent sur l'évolution de ce qu'il signifie. Évaluer sérieusement ce qu'il représente nous oblige à reformuler la compréhension ou l'interprétation de sa politique dans le contexte du Canada du 21e siècle, où les situations nationales et internationales ont considérablement changé au cours de ces quarante dernières années. Dans un tel contexte, nous examinons ici dans quelles directions le multiculturalisme devrait se développer de concert avec d'autres valeurs essentielles au Canada, telles que l'égalité et la démocratie. Finalement, nous proposons d'élargir sa portée, tout en défendant vivement et strictement les questions de diversité ethnologique et religieuse, afin de pouvoir y allier toutes sortes de cultures, de façon à ce que chaque citoyen y soit accueilli dans un processus inclusif et collectif, constituant la base sur laquelle le Canada établit son discours sur l'identité nationale et le nationalisme.
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Working toward a sustainable future
Alan D. Hecht 1. Joseph Fiksel 2. & Marina Moses 3 1 Office of Research and Development, United States Environmental Protection Agency, 1200 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW, Mail Code 2310A, Washington, DC 20460 USA (email: hecht. alan@epa. gov ) 2 Office of Research and Development, United States Environmental Protection Agency, 26 West Martin Luther King Drive, Mail Code 236, Cincinnati, OH 45268 USA (email: fiksel. joseph@epa. gov ) 3 Policy and Global Affairs Division, National Research Council, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Suite 720, Washington, DC 20005 USA (email: mmoses@nas. edu )
Authors’ Personal Statement: How can our society address the complex interaction of environmental, social, and economic problems in the 21st century? We propose that federal agencies in the United States complement their existing regulatory framework with new initiatives based on the “innovation cycle” for sustainability. This approach includes engaging stakeholders, advancing sustainability science and systems thinking, encouraging public-private partnerships, and developing decision-support capabilities to enable sustainable and resilient solutions. The United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) is moving in this direction through new actions defined in the agency’s Strategic Plan for 2014–2018. In this Community Essay, we highlight examples of how the innovation cycle enables progress on critical issues facing USEPA and other agencies, and we argue for increased government-business collaboration, federal agency coordination, and public involvement.
Keyword: Federal policy, international policy, sustainable development, social responsibility, economic conditions, environmental protection, business, industry
Citation: Hecht A. Fiksel J. & Moses M. 2014. Working toward a sustainable future. Sustainability: Science, Practice, & Policy 10(2):65-75. Published online Jan 15, 2014. http://sspp. proquest. com/archives/vol10iss2/communityessay. hecht. html
How can contemporary society address the complex interaction of environmental, social, and economic forces? What factors are currently limiting the sustainability of business enterprises? How can federal and state agencies break down silos and work together to pursue sustainability? What is the preferred model for business-government collaboration and engagement with civil society and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs)? We raise these questions because in the 21st century all sectors of society must confront the challenge of sustaining economic development while protecting critical environmental resources.
In 1970, when the modern environmental movement was coalescing and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) was created, environmental protection focused mainly on addressing issues related to industrial emissions and occupational health and safety. Most environmental challenges were highly visible and easy for the public to understand. For instance, on June 22, 1969, an oil slick and debris in the Cuyahoga River in Cleveland caught fire, drawing national attention to environmental problems in Ohio and elsewhere in the United States. Time magazine wrote on August 1, 1970, “Some River! Chocolate-brown, oily, bubbling with subsurface gases, it oozes rather than flows.”
Congress addressed the obvious problems of air, water, and land pollution in the United States through media-specific environmental legislation. In the late 1960s and early 1970s, there was significant bipartisan popular demand for federal leadership in ameliorating pollution problems (Andrews, 2011). The Clean Air Act of 1970, the Clean Water Act of 1972, the Safe Drinking Water Act of 1974, the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act of 1976, and the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Cleanup, and Liability (Superfund) Act of 1980 yielded great progress in improving the quality of the environment. These initiatives relied on federal regulations that set maximum pollutant limits and heavily fined businesses that did not comply. The success of these laws and subsequent regulations is evident today: our air and water are cleaner, less hazardous waste is produced, and contaminated sites are being remediated. Existing regulations provide a strong “safety net” against the domestic impacts of pollution, although the potential remains for environmental problems to be “exported” across global supply chains.
Despite these significant accomplishments, newly emerging pressures are threatening the well-being and resilience of human society and the natural environment, thus jeopardizing economic prosperity. The urgency of dealing with today’s problems is evident. Worldwide population growth and urban development, as well as globalization of industrial production, have driven increased consumption of energy, water, materials, and land. The consequences include increased greenhouse-gas emissions, decreased biodiversity, and threats to vital natural resources including water bodies, soils, forests, wetlands, and coral reefs. The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment found that fifteen of 24 global ecosystem services are being degraded or exhausted (Hassan et al. 2005). A study by the Stockholm Center for Resilience suggests that on a planetary scale we have exceeded our “safe operating boundaries” in terms of greenhouse-gas emissions, nitrogen flows, and biodiversity (Rockström et al. 2009). The Global Footprint Network has estimated that if current trends continue, by the 2030s, we will need the equivalent of two Earths to support the world’s population. 1 Planetary ecosystems will experience even greater pressures by 2050, when global population could reach 9 billion, some 30% more than the 2000 level (UNDESA, 2012), while rapid economic growth and urbanization in developing nations will exacerbate resource demands.
Table 1 provides an overview of the evolving nature of environmental problems and policy responses in the United States. The focus has shifted from land conservation in the 19th century to risk management in the 20th century to broader sustainability concerns (requiring a systems approach) in the 21st century. By anticipating future challenges, we can embark on a new era of cooperation, coordination, and public support for achieving sustainable development (Hecht et al. 2012). We need to think ahead, and this Community Essay outlines positive steps toward a resilient and sustainable future.
Table 1 Evolving environmental problems and policy approaches in the United States.
Strategies for a Sustainable Future
Addressing the problems of the 21st century will require a combination of strategies, including creative use of existing environmental policies and regulations, innovative application of science and technology, and collaboration among stakeholders. These are not easy challenges given the rigid nature of government operations, the tensions between business and government, and the potential conflicts between local and national interests.
Fortunately, major institutions are beginning to respond positively to these challenges. As Figure 1 shows, the confluence of economic and environmental risks, regulations, financial investment and public reporting, and international forces have propelled business and government leaders toward adoption of more sustainable practices (Hecht, 2012). There is clear evidence of this transition in the business community—in one recent survey of nearly 3,000 company officials, two-thirds confirmed that “sustainability was critically important to being competitive in today’s marketplace” (Kiron et al. 2013).
Figure 1 Business-government convergence on sustainability (Hecht, 2012).
In June 2012, the “Rio+20” United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development emphasized the importance of strong public-private partnerships to assure that the economy provides social benefits such as job creation, poverty alleviation, and improved environmental conditions. The conference resulted in the commitment of over US$513 billion by businesses and governments to address critical sustainability issues, including energy and food security, access to drinking water, and management of the oceans. 2 For example, the United States government announced US$2 billion in grants and loans to advance clean-energy technology. The following are examples of commitments from private enterprises:
Microsoft committed to achieve carbon neutrality in its operations in more than 100 countries by 2030.
Bank of America set the goal of allocating US$50 billion for low-carbon energy financing over the next ten years.
DuPont committed US$10 billion by 2020 to research and development, and plans to launch 4,000 new products by the end of 2020 to produce more food, to enhance nutrition, and to improve farming sustainability worldwide.
The Consumer Goods Forum, a partnership of more than 600 companies, agreed to “zero net deforestation” in their supply chains by 2020.
Despite these positive signals, the United States and the world as a whole face daunting challenges that will not be resolved by the actions of a few progressive organizations or changes in some practices of even major corporations. Collective action will be needed on a broad scale to reverse current unsustainable trends and to prevent a global “tragedy of the commons.”
The Innovation Cycle, Systems Thinking, and Resilience
A classic definition of a sustainable society is “one that can persist over generations, one that is far-seeing enough, flexible enough and wise enough not to undermine either its physical or its social system of support” (Meadows et al. 1992). Today more than ever, the creative power of innovation is necessary to meet the challenges of reducing humanity’s global footprint and balancing economic growth with social and environmental concerns. Technological innovation must be accompanied by innovative business models and governance approaches.
For a start, we need to embrace new approaches that apply systems thinking and transdisciplinary research to capture the full scope of environmental, social, and economic problems and to identify potential solutions. In particular, we need to apply advanced decision-support tools, such as life-cycle assessment, to help decision makers evaluate alternative responses. Second, we need to promote effective engagement and collaboration among federal agencies, businesses, local communities, NGOs, and other stakeholders to understand and address their respective goals.
All of these activities contribute to what we call the “Innovation Cycle for Sustainability,” which draws upon well-established principles of innovation. The following are key elements of this cycle:
Engaging stakeholders to understand their needs, constraints, and priorities.
Using sustainability science and systems thinking to enable integrated problem solving.
Encouraging transdisciplinary collaboration among government, business, academia, and NGOs to design innovative technologies and practices.
Developing comprehensive decision-support tools to help policy makers and decision makers implement sustainable and resilient solutions.
The innovation cycle relies heavily on collaboration in defining and responding to stakeholder needs, as well as integrating across research disciplines. It builds on the concept of “sustainability science,” which aims to link many scientific disciplines to create an integrated systems approach to problem assessment and management (Kates & Parris, 2003). As John Sterman (2002) notes, “overcoming policy resistance and building a sustainable world requires meaningful systems thinking coupled with community engagement in promoting common good.”
Systems thinking leads to a better understanding of resilience, defined as “the capacity to survive, adapt, and flourish in the face of turbulent change and uncertainty” (Fiksel, 2007). Over the past several years, attention to resilience and sustainability has increased significantly as a consequence of natural disasters such as Superstorm Sandy, which ravaged large portions of the New York metropolitan area in October 2012. According to the insurance company Munich Re, North America has seen the world’s sharpest increase in the cost of natural catastrophes during the past 32 years, a trend that appears to correlate with climate change. While climate adaptation is an important aspect of resilience, equally important is anticipation of future disruptions such as infrastructure breakdown.
The concepts of sustainability and resilience are interrelated (National Research Council, 2012a). Sustainability tends to focus on long-term goals and strategies, while resilience is oriented to preparing for unexpected disruptions that may destabilize an otherwise sustainable system. Generally, approaches taken to address one concept would also be supportive of the other, although there may be tradeoffs. The more sustainable we are, the less we expose ourselves to unpredictable disruptions; the more resilient we are, the less we risk compromising our future well-being (Fiksel et al. 2014).
A recent National Academies report, Disaster Resilience: A National Imperative (National Research Council, 2012b),recommends that “Federal government agencies should incorporate national resilience as a guiding principle to inform the mission and actions of the federal government and the programs it supports at all levels.” As noted above, resilience strategies are needed not only for coping with disasters but also for addressing slower-moving threats, such as sea-level rise, that can make us more vulnerable to disruptive events.
Further evidence of the growing importance of resilience is the creation of ResilientCity, a network of urban planners, architects, designers, engineers, and landscape architects that seeks to develop creative and practical planning and design strategies to increase the resilience of cities and communities. 3 The group aims to deal with the potential impacts associated with climate change, environmental degradation, and resource shortages. Similarly, the Rockefeller Foundation has launched a worldwide grant program called “100 Resilient Cities,” helping cities to better address the increasing shocks and stresses of the 21st century. 4
A key element of the innovation cycle is the use of decision-support tools and indicators to help decision makers assess the combined social, economic, and environmental impacts of alternative policies, technologies, and practices. The USEPA and other agencies have a long history of applying such tools (e. g. cost-benefit analysis). Today, using modern technologies such as geographic information systems, new applications and indicators are being developed to integrate diverse data sources and models, enabling a systems approach. As a result, decision makers at all levels—federal, state, and community—will be better equipped to understand the overall consequences of proposed actions in terms of sustainability and resilience.
Currently, USEPA is taking a systems approach to address serious water-quality problems in the Narragansett Bay watershed. 5 The health of the bay is jeopardized by excessive releases of nutrients—primarily nitrogen and phosphorus—from agriculture, wastewater treatment, and stormwater runoff, among other sources. Excessive nutrient overloads cause algae blooms that can degrade or destroy aquatic ecosystems and interfere with fishing, recreation, and tourism. The USEPA is collaborating with many regional stakeholders to consider a portfolio of possible solutions, such as septic and sewage-treatment technologies, low-impact development, and green infrastructure, as well as to assess the long-term outcomes of these measures.
To support this effort, USEPA has developed a policy analysis and decision-support tool based on a systems framework called the Triple Value Model (Fiksel, 2012). A user-friendly, dashboard-style visualization interface enables users to construct alternative intervention scenarios aimed at reducing adverse nutrient impacts to the watershed, and to project over a 40-year time horizon the expected changes in a variety of environmental, economic, and social indicators such as water clarity, tourism revenue, and property values (Fiksel et al. 2013). The underlying model uses system dynamics to integrate relevant data and scientific relationships across the economic, social, and environmental spheres (see Figure 2).
Figure 2 Systems modeling for nutrient impairment in New England .
The above example illustrates how the innovation cycle can extend beyond the “safety net” of current legislative mandates and address a complex set of problems that requires integrated thinking. For instance, why aim merely to treat toxic waste when we can limit its creation through the use of more benign materials, the design of innovative conversion processes, and the establishment of a regulatory system favoring recycling and reuse? As Michael Weinstein et al. (2013) and others have pointed out, the global sustainability transition is “more than changing light bulbs”; it involves changing our approach to decision making.
Effective implementation of the innovation cycle requires collaboration among federal and state agencies, transcending regulatory boundaries and coordinating existing sustainability programs. Statutes, budgets, and government culture often encourage federal agencies in the United States to focus on a single area (e. g. energy, water, occupational safety) with little attention to how these areas affect one another. It is essential to overcome this “stovepipe” or “silo” effect to address sustainability issues that cut across agency boundaries.
One successful example of effective interagency collaboration is the partnership between USEPA, the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), and the Department of Transportation (DOT) (USEPA, 2009). In 2009, the three agencies agreed to work together to support sustainable community development by applying federal transportation, water infrastructure, housing, and other investments in a coordinated manner. The agencies are also working collaboratively on tools and metrics to benchmark existing conditions, measure progress toward achieving community visions, and increase accountability. For example, the HUD-EPA-DOT partnership has launched a project in Gary, Indiana to revitalize four decaying neighborhoods, including clean-up of contaminated brownfield sites and development of green infrastructure. 6
Building on this kind of multi-agency engagement, seven federal agencies, two private entities, and two foundations asked the National Research Council (NRC) to study how agencies could better consider complex and cross-cutting sustainability challenges. The NRC established an expert committee to review the literature, hold public fact-finding meetings, and explore examples in three landscapes: urban, suburban, and rural. The study’s basic premise was that sustainability is a systems problem, and rather than separately optimizing its pieces one must understand the “nexus” where domains intersect but existing institutions and disciplines do not. The final study report, Sustainability for the Nation: Resource Connections and Governance Linkages, produced a number of important recommendations (Committee on Sustainability Linkages in the Federal Government et al. 2013):
Adopt a decision framework that emphasizes preparing and planning, designing and implementing, evaluating and adapting, and assessing long-term outcomes.
Support innovative efforts to address sustainability issues by identifying key administrative, programmatic, funding, and other barriers and by developing ways to reduce these barriers.
Legitimize and reward the activities of individuals who engage in initiatives that “cross silos” in the interest of sustainability, both at the staff and leadership level.
Support long-term, interdisciplinary research underpinning sustainability.
Support scientific incentives to collaborate on sustained, cross-agency research.
Adopt a National Sustainability Policy to provide clear guidance to executive agencies on addressing governance linkages related to complex sustainability problems.
The last recommendation is a formidable but achievable challenge. The objectives of a National Sustainability Policy would be to encourage coordination among agencies, reduce “silos,” and improve integration of research and operations. Furthermore, the policy would enhance communication among agencies and between the federal government and stakeholders, while reducing duplication and improving cost effectiveness. One example of such an initiative is the United States Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), mandated by Congress in 1990 to coordinate research across thirteen agencies. 7
Making sustainability an explicit policy goal at all levels of government, as well as the private sector, can send a clear message about the need for innovative practices and creative regulatory approaches that serve the collective interests of the public, business, and government. Jordan & Benson (2013) note that sustainability is more than a vision, but an organizing principle for the future of policies and governance. Their focus is on the Gulf of Mexico where the population has nearly doubled between 1970 and 2000, placing significant pressures on natural resources. In the Gulf Coast region, federal policies, regulations, and management programs apply to a complex suite of issues, including human health, water and air quality, waste management, marine fisheries, endangered species, fossil-fuel extraction, oil pollution, ocean dumping, ports and waterways, and public access to beaches. In some cases, federal policies are administered by the states, in others (e. g. air quality) by national mandates, and in yet others (e. g. marine fisheries) by multi-state entities.
These authors describe the experience of Tampa Bay, which by 1970 was experiencing deteriorating water quality and loss of sea grasses due to increased nutrient concentrations. Without intervention, these trends could have altered the estuarine ecosystem irreversibly. Combined action by citizens groups and the federal government led to advanced wastewater treatment, greatly reducing nitrogen discharges into the bay. Subsequent accomplishments included major reductions in nutrient loads from other sources, along with preserving and restoring mangrove and tidal marsh habitats. Thus, stakeholders working together had significantly addressed critical environmental needs.
The successes of Tampa Bay highlight the importance of anticipatory and proactivestrategies. Future challenges, including climate change, sea-level rise, and population growth, are now being addressed comprehensively by a diverse regional network of stakeholders and authorities. In contrast, serious problems exist along the Louisiana coast, where there have been persistent failures to address the complexities of environmental change in the context of competing economic and social interests. For example, while fisheries policies strive explicitly for sustainability, critical habitats are being lost because of failures to account for cumulative impacts over space and time. To prevent further deterioration of the coastal zone, the state of Louisiana recently updated its coastal master plan to emphasize comprehensive, sustainable approaches. While many stakeholders were engaged in development of this master plan, an effective governance network comparable to Tampa Bay has not yet been instituted; this remains a clear challenge for the future.
More recently, following the Deepwater Horizon oil spill in 2012, the Restore Act established a Gulf Coast Ecosystem Restoration Council to coordinate funding of restoration actions. The Act mandates that 80% of recovery funding be allocated to activities contributing to the environmental and economic well-being of the Gulf Coast and its residents. The council, chaired by the United States Secretary of Commerce, includes the five Gulf-state governors and the leaders of relevant federal agencies. Continued stakeholder collaboration will be crucial for dealing with ongoing problems throughout the region.
The examples in Narragansett Bay and the Gulf of Mexico illustrate the need for broad engagement of government agencies with NGOs, academic institutions, the business community, and civil society. Common to all stakeholders is the recognition that energy, water, land use, and material consumption are interrelated, and that these linkages must be understood to enable effective policy formation. Many in the business and financial communities view sustainability as a means to reduce long-term risk, enhance economic competitiveness, and promote social well-being. Many consumers are also becoming more aware of sustainability issues and expect manufacturers to develop greener and/or safer products. The goal of sustainability can be pursued most effectively when business, government, and other stakeholders collaborate to identify critical issues and common goals, adopting a systems approach to innovative resource management.
As noted earlier, contrary to the traditional view that environmental responsibility is a burden on industry, leading companies are now embracing sustainability as a core strategy for long-term success. The World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD) has formulated an ambitious agenda to assist global industries in moving toward sustainable growth. The Council’s Vision 2050 report coined the phrase “green race” and outlines a “pathway that will require fundamental changes in governance structures, economic frameworks, business and human behavior.” The report argues that these changes are “necessary, feasible and offer tremendous business opportunities for companies that turn sustainability into strategy” (WBCSD, 2010).
Business and government have identified a number of common objectives, one example being waste reduction. The WBCSD report cited above set forth a vision for 2030: “not a particle of waste.” Many prominent companies, including Disney, General Motors, and Unilever, have established zero-waste goals. For example, Unilever recycles 97% of its waste through its waste contractor Veolia Environment. At the same time, federal, state, and local governments are grappling with approaches for limiting both the volume and toxicity of waste. The fact that business and government share common themes—such as zero waste—creates an opportunity for collaboration on 1) developing the needed science and innovation to design products with minimal waste and 2) removing regulatory barriers that impede the effective recycling or reuse of materials.
Innovation can emerge in surprising ways. One inspiring example involves Veronika Scott, a 23-year-old Detroit resident who had the radical idea of making coats out of scrap material and delivering them to the homeless. She envisioned no ordinary garment—and her material came from no ordinary source. She created a coat that converts in seconds into a sleeping bag, and much of the material comes from waste products of General Motors, which donated 2,000 yards of scrap material from the doors and dashboards of newly manufactured vehicles. This was enough to make 400 coats produced by homeless women in Detroit. The USEPA’s Tom Murray wrote a blog about this, linking sustainability’s three dimensions: “John Bradburn (from GM) and Veronika’s efforts are a classic example of sustainability. Scrap material is diverted from the landfill (environment) and is being used instead to help a fledgling non-profit enterprise grow (economy) while offering a helping hand to the homeless (social).” 8 Veronika’s efforts have not gone unnoticed by those outside of Detroit. She became the youngest person ever to receive the New Frontier Award from the John F. Kennedy Library Foundation.
An example of USEPA efforts at collaboration is the creation of “technology clusters,” which engage businesses, federal agencies, local governments, universities, investors, and others to promote environmentally sustainable economic development and technological innovation. This initiative has led to formation of a water-technology cluster linking Ohio, Kentucky, and Indiana (USEPA, 2011). Likewise, many companies and industry associations are encouraging collaboration among business, government, and NGOs. For example, IBM and the World Environment Center established the Innovations for Environmental Sustainability Council, involving some of the world’s leading companies, to identify next-generation technologies and best practices, addressing critical sustainability challenges (Silicon Republic, 2012). Dow Chemical is collaborating with the Nature Conservancy to advance the science and practice of valuing ecosystem services (Walsh, 2011). Industrial consortia such as the Sustainable Apparel Coalition, the Outdoor Industry Association, and the Sustainability Consortium are actively engaged with academia, NGOs, and government to establish voluntary sustainability standards for commercial products (Golden et al. 2011).
USEPA: Evolving from Regulator to Innovative Problem Solver
While existing laws and regulations are crucial for protecting human health and the environment, they alone cannot ensure a sustainable future. To achieve beneficial changes, regulatory agencies must adopt a broader and more systems-oriented approach. The above examples from Narragansett Bay and the Gulf of Mexico illustrate the evolving role of USEPA from environmental regulator to innovative problem-solver. It is important that the agency gain understanding and support from both the public and the business community for this continuing evolution.
When USEPA was created in 1970, it was characterized as “the federal government’s watchdog, police officer, and chief weapon against all forms of pollution” (Shabecoff, 1993). While at first the agency had bipartisan support, it “quickly became the lightning rod for the nation’s hopes of cleaning up pollution and its fears about intrusive federal regulations” (Andrews, 2011). By the mid-1980s, USEPA had expanded its regulatory role based on the practice of risk assessment. In 1983, the National Academies published a landmark report, Risk Assessment in the Federal Government: Managing the Process commonly known as the Red Book (National Research Council, 1983). Today, the challenge for USEPA, as well as other federal agencies, is to augment the risk-based paradigm by adopting a new role as an innovative problem solver focused on environmental stewardship. Richard Andrews (2011) notes that the future challenge for USEPA is “not simply to regulate individual pollutants and facilities, but to lead in transforming existing government policies into more effective incentives to create a greener, economically efficient, and environmentally sustainable economy.”
Former Administrator Lisa Jackson (2008–2013), like many of her predecessors, was sensitive to the complex problems of the 21st century. She reached out to the National Academy of Sciences for guidance at the time of USEPA’s 40th anniversary. “As we celebrate 40 years of incredible accomplishments, we find ourselves at a critical juncture,” she stated. “We have a new awareness of environmental complexity and, at the same time, we have new tools, insights, and experiences to guide our mission.” The resulting Academy report affirmed that a “sustainability approach can strengthen USEPA as an organization and a leader in the nation’s progress toward sustainability. Adopting a vision for sustainability as a goal will provide a unifying and forward looking stimulus to the Agency” (Committee on Incorporating Sustainability in the United States Environmental Protection Agency et al. 2011). The NRC report specifically called for USEPA to develop a sustainability framework for decision-making. This study was carefully reviewed by other federal agencies, many of which have begun incorporating sustainability practices into their own operations. For instance, the United States Army has established a “net zero” program to manage water, energy, and waste at all of its facilities. The Department of Agriculture is advancing sustainability objectives in food and agricultural practices as well as in forest management. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (a unit of the Department of Commerce) is working with stakeholders to better manage the nation’s fish stocks.
The title of this Community Essay reflects a theme emphasized by USEPA Administrator Gina McCarthy, explicitly included in the agency’s Strategic Plan for the period 2014–2018. In describing the goal of “working toward a sustainable future,” McCarthy notes that “our traditional approaches to risk reduction and pollution control can only go so far to deliver the long term and broad environmental quality we seek.”
Enhancing Public Understanding of Sustainability
A key role of government and NGOs is to better inform decision makers and the public of existing trends, stressors, and threats to health and the environment. The public, in turn, must recognize the value of proposed actions without fearing loss of jobs or other adverse social impacts. A key step in this direction is the development of indicators and metrics that help to justify policy changes. The USEPA, along with other agencies of the federal government, has been actively engaged in developing such tools. For example, the agency’s Report on the Environment (ROE) regularly describes the current state of the environment and observes national trends (USEPA, 2008). The latest version of ROE (to be published online in 2014) will be the first to include a set of sustainability indicators that quantifies the changing intensity of energy, water, and waste relative to economic and population growth. Another example is EnviroAtlas . a web-based mapping tool that will provide an easy-to-use, visual way to explore and better understand the benefits of natural ecosystems and how they can be protected to assure a sustainable future (USEPA, 2013).
The wealth of available indicators from federal and state agencies is overwhelming. The challenge ahead is not further development of such measures but their application and use. Such metrics are most effective when they serve as drivers of change. One example of an overarching strategic indicator is the ecological footprint of the United States, which reveals that certain regions of the country are already stressed with respect to the “biocapacity” of their ecosystem assets (see Figure 3). This indicator provides a method for understanding current burdens, projecting future stressors, and determining how decision makers can best anticipate and respond to these challenges (Wackernagel, 2013).
Figure 3 National Comparison of Ecological Footprint to Biocapacity (Source: Global Footprint Network).
Similarly, regional studies are assessing the “water footprint” of society; for example, California’s total water footprint is estimated to be 64 million acre-feet per year (Pacific Institute, 2012). This is more than double the annual volume of water that flows down the state’s two largest rivers, the Sacramento and San Joaquin. An estimated 38 million acre-feet of water is used to produce goods and services within California, about half of which is exported and consumed outside the state. An additional 44 million acre-feet is required to produce goods and services imported into California, so that the state is a net importer of “virtual” agua. Collaborative actions by industry, agriculture, government, consumers, and other sectors can potentially help California to achieve a sustainable balance between the availability, allocation, and use of natural resources.
The value of these studies is both to assess the current state of the environment and to stimulate a discussion about potential actions in anticipation of future changes. Society must take a longer-term view to consider emerging pressures on ecosystems at different scales of resolution and how the built environment and ecosystems can be managed in a synergistic way. For industrial innovators, the long view involves thinking about how business models can be transformed so that materials and energy are used more effectively in product and process life cycles and wastes and hazardous residuals are reduced or eliminated. A key challenge for all states is to engage federal, state, and local agencies, as well as academic and business leaders, to analyze future stresses on ecosystems and water resources and to identify science and technology needs and appropriate partnerships to best deal with these challenges.
Returning to the questions posed at the beginning of this Community Essay, we again ask: How can today’s society address the complex interaction of environmental, social, and economic forces? In other words, how can we ensure a balance among economic development, social well-being, and environmental protection?
We believe that sustainable development is a crucial objective for all levels of government in both developed and developing countries. Population growth, economic development, and globalization of industry have led to greater consumption of energy and materials and wide-ranging changes in land use. These pressures not only increase greenhouse-gas emissions, but also threaten biodiversity, natural resource integrity, human health, and social well-being. The increasing stresses on natural resources have resulted in damage to natural capital, including water resources, soils, forests, wetlands, and coral reefs, which will create serious challenges in the decades ahead.
Quality of life in the United States will likely decline unless we adopt innovative approaches to transform our production and consumption patterns. We are fortunate that both government and business leaders view sustainability as the appropriate lens for envisioning enhanced competitiveness and social well-being. For the business world, sustainability has become the “mother lode” of organizational and technological innovations. Firms increasingly realize today that “there is no alternative to sustainable development” (Nidumolu et al. 2009). For federal agencies, regulatory policy and research must augment media-specific risk assessments by adopting a systems approach to address these sustainability problems. While fulfilling their core mandates to minimize risks to human health and the environment, government bodies must also evolve to develop science-based, integrated approaches that address the complex challenges of the new century. This evolution can be facilitated by what we call the “innovation cycle for sustainability.”
The path forward can build on strategic business imperatives and strong recommendations from the National Research Council. A new model for sustainability in the 21st century requires a convergence of 1) advances in science, technology, and innovation; 2) business practices that promote sustainable solutions; 3) greater coordination across federal agencies; 4) effective business and government collaboration; and 5) public support, understanding, and behavior change. All sectors of society will need to work together to pursue this model and assure continued American prosperity and competitiveness. The public must come to understand that sustainability provides both the vision and approach to achieve outcomes that enhance the economy and protect health and the environment. By anticipating and responding proactively to future challenges, we can disprove Benjamin Franklin’s adage, “It is not until the well runs dry that we know the worth of water.”
The views expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) or the National Research Council (NRC). Mention of trade names or commercial products does not constitute agency endorsement or recommendations for use. Special thanks to Edward Fallon (USEPA) for editorial assistance and to Mathis Wackernagel (Global Footprint Network) for Figure 3.
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Nuclear Weapons in the Twenty-First Century
Stephen M. Younger
Associate Laboratory Director for Nuclear Weapons Los Alamos National Laboratory
The time is right for a fundamental rethinking of the role of nuclear weapons in national defense and of the composition of our nuclear forces. The Cold War is over, but it has been replaced by new threats to our national security. Technology, here and abroad, is inexorably advancing, creating both dangers and opportunities for the United States. This paper analyzes the future role of nuclear weapons in national security, describes the roles and limitations of advanced conventional weapons in meeting strategic needs, and suggests several alternate scenarios for future U. S. nuclear forces.
The principal role of nuclear weapons is to deter potential adversaries from an attack on the United States, our allies, or our vital interests. Russia maintains very large strategic and tactical nuclear forces. China is actively modernizing its nuclear arsenal. India and Pakistan have dramatically demonstrated the ability of midlevel technology states to develop or acquire nuclear weapons. There are grave concerns about the future proliferation of nuclear weapons among such countries as North Korea, Iraq, and Iran. The nuclear age is far from over.
Advances in conventional weapons technology suggest that by 2020 precision long-range conventional weapons may be capable of performing some of the missions currently assigned to nuclear weapons. Today, uncertainty in the location of road mobile missiles carrying weapons of mass destruction might require a nuclear weapon for assured destruction. Future real-time imagery and battle management, combined with precision strike long-range missiles, may mean that a conventional weapon could effectively destroy such targets.
Some targets require the energy of a nuclear weapon for their destruction. However, precision targeting can greatly reduce the nuclear yield required to destroy such targets. Only a relatively few targets require high nuclear yields. Advantages of lower yields include reduced collateral damage, arms control advantages to the United States, and the possibility that such weapons could be maintained with higher confidence and at lower cost than our current nuclear arsenal.
Now is the time to reexamine the role and composition of our future nuclear forces. New technologies take at least a decade to move from the concept stage to the point where we can rely on them for our nation s defense. And, advance planning is already under way for the replacements of our nuclear capable missiles, aircraft, and sub-marines. Prudent thought given to this crucial subject will reap great dividends for the United States and for peace in the world.
Nuclear weapons played a pivotal role in international security during the latter half of the twentieth century. Despite rapid increases in communications, transportation, and weapons technology, there has been no large-scale strategic conflict since the Second World War. Nuclear weapons, as the most destructive instruments ever invented, had a stabilizing effect on superpower relations by making any conflict unacceptably costly. However, geopolitical change and the evolution of military technology suggest that the composition of our nuclear forces and our strategy for their employment may be different in the twenty-first century. The time is right for a fundamental rethinking of our expectations and requirements for these unique weapons.
Nuclear weapons are one component of an integrated defense strategy that includes diplomacy and conventional forces. The principal role of nuclear weapons was and continues to be that of deterring any potential adversaries from an attack on America or our vital interests. This role is expected to continue for as long as nuclear weapons hold the appellation of supreme" instruments of military force. However, this does not mean that their role in military planning will not change at all. Changes in the geopolitical environment and the inexorable advance of military technology here and abroad suggest that the position of nuclear weapons in national security policy will evolve with time. Given the unique destructive power of nuclear weapons, it is essential that this evolution be planned, to the extent possible, with due consideration of the integration of strategic nuclear forces into a consistent and comprehensive policy for national security.
Even with the dramatic changes that have occurred in the world during the past decade, nuclear warplanning today is similar in many respects to what it was during the Cold War. The Single Integrated Operational Plan (SIOP) is focused on a massive counterattack strategy that aims to eliminate the ability of an adversary to inflict further damage to American interests. Nuclear weapons provide an assured retaliatory capability to convince any adversary that aggression or coercion would be met with a response that would be certain, overwhelming, and devastating. It is often, but not universally, thought that nuclear weapons would be used only in extremis, when the nation is in the gravest danger. While there has been some discussion of single weapon" strikes against isolated targets, such as sites of weapons of mass destruction, most of the attention in nuclear strategy has been and is directed toward large-scale engagements. This may not be true in the future.
The advance of conventional weapons technology may result in the ability of conventional weapons to perform some of the missions currently assigned to nuclear weapons. For example, take the case of a road mobile ballistic missile. If one knows the location of such a target and if one can place a conventional weapon on that target with meter-scale accuracy, then it can be destroyed without a nuclear weapon. On the other hand, if one does not know the location of the target to within many kilometers then even a nuclear weapon may not destroy it. The key parameters required for target destruction are intelligence and precision delivery, not the explosive force of the weapon. However, even if a weapon is precisely delivered to the correct target point, countermeasures as simple as steel netting, boulder fields, or decoys complicate reliance on conventional weapons with limited radii of destruction.
The role of nuclear weaponry as the ultimate deterrent to aggression and the ultimate destructive force in combat will likely lead to the retention of at least some nuclear forces for decades to come. However, the composition of our nuclear arsenal may undergo significant modification to respond to changing conditions, changing military needs, and changes in our confidence in our ability to maintain credible nuclear forces without nuclear testing or large-scale weapons production. Options for precision delivery of nuclear weapons may reduce the requirement for high yield. Lower yield weapons could be produced as modifications of existing weapons designs, or they could employ more rugged and simpler designs that might be developed and maintained with high confidence without nuclear testing and with a smaller nuclear weapons complex than we envision is required to maintain our current nuclear forces.
This paper attempts to look forward to the role that nuclear weapons might play in the twenty-first century, starting about 2020. A twenty-year horizon was chosen because over this time scale it is possible to make reasonable projections of technology and some assumptions about the probable threat situation. It takes about twenty years for substantially new weapons technologies to be developed and fielded into dependable military systems. Since this is true for other countries as well as the United States, one can project the development of potential adversarial capabilities to some degree. Of course, changes in governments could occur quickly compared to this time scale, but the technology that would be employed against the United States would proceed more slowly. This paper focuses on state-to-state defense and does not explicitly consider terrorism or the rapid evolution of entirely new state threats. It is unlikely that an emergent power would be able to develop the technology necessary to confront the United States on a time scale faster than two decades without some obvious indicators that would enable our technological or diplomatic response.
Why is this an important issue now? Current plans call for the deployment of the next generation" of strategic forces in about 2020, including replacements for intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), the Ohio-class ballistic missile submarine, and perhaps even the venerable B52 bomber. This strategic modernization will be expensive, and it is not too soon to begin the debate over what kinds of strategic forces are needed to meet future needs.
It takes at least a decade to deploy a new technology, and if research and development are required, additional time may be needed. For such a key component of national defense, it is not sufficient to merely demonstrate that new systems work. There must be sufficient time to shake out the inevitable problems associated with new systems so as to make them dependable beyond reasonable doubt of our own government and the governments of potential adversaries. Time must also be allowed for the negotiation of treaties or other international agreements that support the new force structure and that preclude the marginalization of our forces by either a massive breakout or any other action that would reduce the effectiveness of our forces. Finally, the twentieth century repeatedly demonstrated that sweeping geopolitical changes occur on a short time scale compared to our ability to respond with new technologies or doctrines. It is imperative to consider the widest range of potential options before a crisis develops and to maintain a sufficiently robust research and development base to enable a response at that time.
The development of naval air power during the 1930s is a prime example of the need to evaluate the role of new technologies well before any anticipated engagement. The development of radar and ballistic missiles during the 1940s is an example of technologies developed during a conflict using preexisting foundations of research and technology. Some investment in thinking about future strategic forces now could reap significant dividends in the future.
Planning for future strategic defense is a highly complex affair that requires the consideration of many possible contingencies. This paper is not intended to be a complete analysis of such a complex topic. Rather, its purpose is to stimulate thinking about changes in the international environment and technology that might be expected to influence the makeup of our strategic warfighting capability.
In order to set the stage, I first present a brief overview of the geopolitical situation that might reasonably be expected to influence defense strategy in 2020. This is followed by a discussion of what weapons technology might be available to the United States and other countries. Next, a discussion is given of some force structures, including weapons and supporting infrastructure, that might satisfy future defense needs. The paper concludes with a summary and suggestions for further work.
THE INTERNATIONAL SITUATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY
Before one can rationally discuss future defense needs, it is necessary to know what one is defending against. The past decade has demonstrated the difficulty and danger of predicting the geopolitical future, but there are some forecasts that can be made with reasonable confidence and which can be used to guide further discussion.
Strategic Threats to U. S. National Security in the Twenty-First Century
Future national security threats to the United States might be divided into three major categories: major power conflicts, especially those involving Russia and China; regional conflicts, including potential nuclear states such as Iran, Iraq, or North Korea; and conflicts involving terrorist groups and other nonstate organizations. Only the first two major categories will be considered here, since it is arguable whether there is any role for strategic nuclear forces in dealing with terrorism and substate threats. However, strategic conflicts can be sparked by terrorist acts, as was the case in the First World War and other conflicts.
Russia During the past 200 years European Russia has sustained a series of catastrophes including the invasion of Napoleon, the Crimean War, the First World War, the Revolution, the Second World War, and now the transition from a communist state to something else. In each case the country recovered within a generation. Even after the Second World War, when the country was essentially in ruins, it came back to launch Sputnik within twelve years. While one cannot predict what will happen in a country so volatile as Russia, it is not unreasonable to assume that it will endeavor to return to a conventional military power while continuing to rely on a significant nuclear capability. It is clear from Russia s investment in conventional military technology that it wishes to reassert its status in this area and to continue a lucrative business in the international arms trade.
China China s international aims are in development, but their long stated intention to reunify" Taiwan into the mainland and their territorial moves in the South China Sea indicate that they plan to play a broader role on the international stage. China has a small nuclear arsenal but one capable of inflicting unacceptable damage on American territory and interests. It is unclear at present what, if any, impact alleged Chinese nuclear espionage will have on the modernization of its nuclear arsenal. However, it is worth noting that China has several nuclear weapons systems in the advanced development stage including a new cruise missile, which presumably can carry a nuclear warhead, and new land-launched and sea-launched ballistic missiles. Road mobile nuclear capable missiles add a degree of survivability to China s limited nuclear arsenal. The desire to develop an operational ballistic missile submarine is another suggestion that China is concerned about the survivability of its nuclear forces and perhaps is a comment on its future goals of power projection outside of the immediate Pacific area.
Other Countries The nuclear tests of India and Pakistan again demonstrate that countries will act in their own perceived national interests, sometimes in direct opposition to the wishes of the United States or to previous treaty commitments or arrangements. Continued tensions in South Asia, including Sino-Indian tensions, bear close monitoring, but they may not directly involve the United States. The Middle East will continue to be a problem area due to the misalignment of ethnic, cultural, and national borders. The prospects for Arab or Islamic unification do not appear imminent at present, but historically this unification has relied on a charismatic leader, whose advent is difficult to predict. Continued problems in the Balkans and elsewhere in the world may tax American and allied conventional capabilities, but such conflicts are not expected to assume a nuclear dimension in the foreseeable future. North Korea is presumed to have at least some nuclear capability and has demonstrated remarkable progress in ballistic missile technology, despite its perilous economic condition. Japan and South Korea look upon North Korea s nuclear ambitions with concern and could pursue their own nuclear programs if they felt uncertainty in the American nuclear umbrella. Similar concerns could apply to Taiwan in light of recent statements made by the People s Republic of China.
Nuclear engagement scenarios are not necessarily binary. Third countries may feel compelled to intervene in disputes between nuclear states or in conflicts involving weapons of mass destruction that could spill over into their territory or interests. For example, China may feel a need to act in a nuclear exchange between India and Pakistan. Similarly, Israel may feel a need to act in a major conflict of its neighbors that involved weapons of mass destruction.
FOREIGN WEAPONS TECHNOLOGY IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY
Trends evident today suggest that by 2020 many countries in the world will have access to several important technologies.
Weapons of mass destruction: India and Pakistan graphically demonstrated the ability of midlevel technology states to construct or obtain nuclear weapons. Chemical and biological weapons are assumed to be within the reach of many countries today.
Long-range ballistic missile technology: It is apparent that countries like North Korea, Iran, India, Pakistan, and other countries have or will soon have the capability to project force at intercontinental distances. The developing international marketplace in these technologies may make long-range missiles available to almost any country that has the money and the basic technical capability to acquire and use them. Although such missiles may lack the precision of current U. S. weapons, they might be entirely adequate for the delivery of weapons of mass destruction.
Space imaging: Commercial services already provide high-resolution images from space. The technical capability to provide these images in real time to customers around the world should be expected to develop. Whether international agreements will be enacted to prevent collection against sensitive sites remains to be seen. At some point, Third World countries will have the capability to launch their own intelligence satellites or will pay others to launch them, thus bypassing the need for commercial services.
Russian weapons technology: Despite its economic troubles, Russia is committing significant resources to the research and development of advanced conventional weapons. Part of the reason for this is certainly to provide a credible defense of Russia and its vital interests. However, Russia also sees a lucrative international arms market that appreciates the low cost and operational simplicity of its weapons. One might expect more countries to have access to last generation" but quite capable Russian military technology including missiles, air defenses, submarines, tanks, and other systems.
Advanced communications and computer technology: The spread of communications and computer technology will serve as a force multiplier for a growing number of countries. The ability to effectively employ a small number of electronic weapons against a technologically and/or numerically superior enemy is a cost-effective force-leveling tactic.
The United States will enjoy superiority in conventional and nuclear weapons as long as adequate investments are made in research and development and in the deployment of the resulting weapons systems. However, we should expect other countries to employ many of our ideas in their own defense strategy including the simple copying of our technology and doctrines, or the use of our technology to develop weapons systems of their own. They may also attempt to exploit weaknesses in our advanced technology through means such as electromagnetic weapons, chemical and/or biological weapons, and other asymmetric means."
U. S. DEFENSE TECHNOLOGIES IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY
Conventional Military Technology
Advances in military technology have been much discussed in the literature and are said to be leading toward a revolution in military affairs. Relevant to the present discussion, there are several advances in conventional weapons technology that deserve mention.
Advanced precision munitions: It is already possible for cruise missiles to deliver payloads to targets hundreds of miles from their launch point with few meter accuracy. High precision for intercontinental missiles, either land - or sea-launched, is also possible. Given that ballistic missile reentry vehicles arrive on target with velocities of thousands of meters per second, it is not necessary to have explosive payloads to destroy some classes of targets.
Advanced real-time imagery and data fusion: Data collection from satellites and from unmanned forward platforms will enable real-time remote battle management, including the direction of precision munitions to distant, even mobile, targets.
Antiballistic missile technology will mature if the appropriate investment is made, enabling some defense against limited missile attacks. Analogous defenses could be developed against cruise missiles and aircraft, although these threats are in many ways a tougher problem due to the greater number of potential entry points and the availability of stealth technology.
Information warfare may develop in such a fashion to enable the United States to interdict enemy command, control, and communications.
There has been much discussion of other advanced conventional technologies including unmanned aircraft, sensor technology, beam weapons, and so on. In this paper we will focus on those technologies that could have a strategic impact and that are related to the changing role of nuclear weapons. The importance of considering future defense against ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and aircraft cannot be overestimated. The inexorable advance of technology will eventually make such defenses feasible and will put them within the grasp of any country that wishes to have them. Such is the case now with reasonably sophisticated air defenses. Long range strategic planners must at least consider the return of a traditional armor /antiarmor" competition even for strategic forces. Stealth technologies, advanced countermeasures, and new technologies will affect these trades but will not change the fundamental ability of defense technologies to influence strategic thinking.
Nuclear Weapons Related Technology
Nuclear weapons pack incredible destructive force into a small, deliverable package. In addition to their psychological deterrent value, they are the only current means of holding at risk several classes of targets.
Mobile targets, such as road mobile and rail mobile missiles
Fixed moderately hard targets, such as missile silos
Distributed targets, such as airfields or naval bases
Hard targets, such as deeply buried command structures
Superhard targets, such as facilities located beneath mountains
Conventional weapons might be able to address some of the missions currently assigned to nuclear weapons, but not all of them. Some targets, like missile silos and command and control structures, are sufficiently hard that no conventional weapon will have the energy to defeat them. Other targets, such as airfields and naval bases, are sufficiently dispersed that a massive amount of conventional explosives would be required for their destruction. Even though conventional weapons could damage or destroy such targets, they could do so today only over an extended time frame and with the use of limited resources that may be required in other theaters of operation. Future conventional weapons designs may change this, but there are still limits on the amount of damage that can be caused with a given quantity of high explosive. For these and other reasons, nuclear weapons are expected to continue to play a role in strategic doctrine, independent of their role as a psychological deterrent to aggression.
The United States employs a counterforce strategy that targets military assets that could inflict damage to our national interests. We do not threaten cities or populations as in a countervalue policy, although there is an implicit threat of doing so that is a potent element of the deterrent calculus. American nuclear weapons systems are designed to hold specific classes of targets at risk, using the minimum explosive forces necessary to accomplish the mission. However, a sizable factor governing the explosive force required to defeat a target of given hardness is the precision with which weapons can be delivered. The evolution of accurate delivery systems could change engagement strategies for nuclear weapons, in some cases reducing the required yield or even eliminating the need for an explosion at all. Once again, the use of conventional weapons presumes a level of detailed information on the location and characteristics of the target that has so far eluded military planners. A reliance on precision conventional munitions for some strategic missions presumes a major investment in intelligence collection and analysis tools, including accurate means of assessing target damage following an attack. This is particularly important for strategic targets such as mobile missiles or weapons of mass destruction that could, if they survive, inflict significant damage.
Advances in military technology may change the makeup and use of our strategic forces in several ways.
Some important classes of targets, such as mobile missiles, might be effectively dealt with by long-range precision conventional weapons. One can envision submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) and intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), loaded with such precision weapons, which could be directed by real-time intelligence to targets anywhere on the planet within 30 minutes. Maneuvering reentry vehicles could enable these weapons to follow and destroy moving targets.
A 5-kiloton (kt) nuclear explosive detonated on a 30-foot-thick missile silo door will vaporize that door, destroying the missile inside. With precision delivery many hard targets might be able to be defeated with nuclear explosives having lower yield than we might currently employ. Such lower-yield weapons could use simpler and/or more robust designs than we have in our current arsenal. Simpler, more robust designs, in turn, might allow the nuclear arsenal to be maintained with a smaller maintenance and production complex than is required to support the sophisticated, highly optimized weapons in our stockpile. As in the case of advanced conventional weapons, the use of lower-yield nuclear weapons against hardened targets could be made problematic through the use of relatively simple countermeasures. In the example of a silo door, shielding could be used to separate the blast from the door area, reducing the effectiveness of the weapon.
Widely dispersed targets require energy (yield) for assured destruction. Several dispersed lower-yield weapons will produce the same effect as a single higher-yield weapon. Using multiple weapons on a single target assumes that fratricide effects can be dealt with in planning multiple nuclear bursts in a single target area. Such an approach also requires a larger number of weapons, a factor that would be more challenging if deep cuts in weapons numbers are negotiated. A benefit of lower-yield weapons is that the collateral damage sustained by the near-target area may be reduced, an important factor in attacks near urban areas.
Some very hard targets require high yield to destroy them. No application of conventional explosives or even lower-yield nuclear explosives will destroy such targets, which might include hardened structures buried beneath hundreds of feet of earth or rock. For such purposes it might be desirable to retain a small number of higher-yield nuclear weapons in the arsenal as deterrents against enemy confidence in the survival of such targets.
Superhard targets, such as those found under certain Russian mountains, may not be able to be defeated reliably by even high-yield nuclear weapons. In this case, one might use a different strategy such as functional defeat" in which power, communications, or other vital functions are eliminated or denied without the physical destruction of the main target. Alternately, one might use negotiations to eliminate a target, bargaining away a limited set of special targets for concessions on our part.
These proposals are a departure from conventional thinking on nuclear issues. For example, our ability to negotiate away superhard targets would be very difficult at best. Others, such as the ability of precision advanced conventional munitions to hold at risk mobile and other soft-point targets, are more realistic and require only projections of current technology. In the latter case, a challenge may come from arms control concerns of other countries that see their own nuclear forces made marginal. Also, potential adversaries may use asymmetric means" to counter our advanced technology.
An important consideration in thinking about lower-yield nuclear forces for most of our strategic nuclear requirements is that such weapons could be much simpler than our current highly optimized nuclear designs. Given sufficient throw-weight on our missiles, we could use gun-assembled or other simple, rugged designs that might be maintained with high confidence without nuclear testing. Such designs would require a significantly smaller industrial plant for their maintenance than our current forces. If based on uranium weapons designs, a much smaller plutonium infrastructure would be required. Other technologies specific to high-yield nuclear weapons could be placed in a standby mode rather than a production mode. Finally, simpler weapons might be maintained with higher confidence for longer periods by a weapons staff that has little or no direct experience with nuclear testing. However, should the country elect to follow such a path it will still be necessary to retain expertise in more sophisticated nuclear designs as a hedge against changing conditions in the future.
There is an additional, nontechnical, consideration that will influence future nuclear policy. Given current and projected scientific capabilities, it is difficult or impossible to confidently field a new, highly optimized, nuclear warhead design without nuclear testing. For this and other reasons, the United States intends to maintain its existing nuclear designs into the indefinite future. This is a fundamental change in how we maintain our arsenal. Recent concerns about espionage in the weapons program raise questions about our ability to keep weapons designs secret over many decades. Some in the intelligence community contend that a fixed target, such as our nuclear designs, will be compromised by a determined adversary given sufficient time. Information about our designs could provide important guidance to countries that wish to improve their own nuclear arsenals. Such information would also be advantageous to countries attempting to optimize some future ballistic missile defense system of their own for use against our systems. Finally, it could assist potential adversaries in deploying their strategic forces in a manner designed to make it difficult for us to assure their destruction.
Planners need to consider what we will do when, and not if, the details of our nuclear forces become known by a potential adversary. There are several paths that could be employed here, including disinformation, counterintelligence, etc. One path that has been proven to work has been to change our forces on a regular basis in response to evolving military requirements and technology options. The certification of substantially new nuclear weapons designs is difficult or impossible to do with high confidence without underground nuclear testing. However, the United States has a large archive of previously tested designs that might be fielded with reasonable confidence to meet evolving military needs. In addition, the current stockpile has significant flexibility for modification for new requirements. Such flexibility was most recently evidenced by the modification of the B61 bomb to provide earth-penetrating capability. A move toward a mixed force of long-range conventional and lower-yield nuclear weapons with improved accuracy would be another means of meeting this need. Such decisions need not be exclusive. It may be wisest to employ multiple technologies, both nuclear and nonnuclear, to create a robust future strategic posture.
STRATEGIC FORCES TO MEET FUTURE DEFENSE NEEDS
Planning strategic forces is a highly complicated affair that must include technical, geopolitical, and military considerations. A full analysis is not attempted here. The purpose of this section is to suggest some broad options that can be used as starting points for more detailed treatment. Although this section concentrates on strategic forces, it is worth noting that several countries possess potent nonstrategic" nuclear forces that are designed for tactical engagements. Nonstrategic forces include nuclear artillery shells, atomic demolition munitions, short-range missiles, and air-delivered bombs. While such weapons are typically lower in yield than most strategic bombs and warheads, they are still nuclear explosives with destructive power vastly greater than conventional weapons. One might expect the division between tactical" and strategic" weapons to blur in the future, especially if significant reductions in strategic arsenals occur.
Scenario 1: Status Quo
Nuclear weapons represent the ultimate defense of the nation, a deterrent against any and all potential adversaries. Combined with diplomacy and conventional military capabilities, nuclear weapons have helped to avoid a large-scale conflict between leading world powers for over fifty years. This is an astonishing achievement given the acceleration in communications and transportation that took place during this time. When the Cold War ended, the U. S. nuclear stockpile consisted of a set of highly optimized warheads and bombs on highly reliable missiles and aircraft. These weapons systems were designed primarily to counter the massive Soviet threat. They were and are the most advanced of their kind in the world. Current plans call for them to be retained essentially indefinitely. There are several good reasons for this.
These weapons are safe, reliable, and meet performance requirements.
We have nuclear test data that support our understanding of their operation.
New warheads of comparable capability are difficult or impossible to field without nuclear testing.
They can be modified in many ways to respond to changing military requirements, as was done when the B61 bomb was modified to give it an earth-penetrating capability.
This scenario maintains a triad of ICBMs, SLBMs, and bombers. More than one type of weapon is maintained in each leg of the triad to provide backup capability should one weapon type encounter a problem. This strategy served us well during the Cold War. Given the rapidity with which the geopolitical situation can change, there is merit in following a prudent and conservative path for future nuclear forces.
There are several potential disadvantages to maintaining the existing stockpile indefinitely. Over time such highly optimized systems may be less well suited to military requirements. Refurbishment and other changes will be made to aging warheads and bombs, changes that might be difficult to certify without nuclear testing. Also, the cost of maintaining these weapons is high for both DoD and DOE. In the case of DOE, an extensive infrastructure of laboratories and plants is required for the Stockpile Stewardship program, including a new manufacturing capability for plutonium pits. Finally, the current stockpile may not be credible against some set of potential adversaries. For example, if a national emergency were to develop that involved the imminent use of weapons of mass destruction against American interests, would an adversary consider our threat of a multiwarhead attack by the Peacekeeper ICBM or a Trident SLBM as overkill and hence not a realistic threat? Such a reliance on high-yield strategic weapons could lead to self-deterrence," a limitation on strategic options, and consequently a lessening of the stabilizing effect of nuclear weapons.
Scenario 2: Reduced Stockpile of Existing Designs
This scenario assumes that arms control initiatives have make it advantageous to the United States to greatly reduce our stockpile of existing nuclear weapons. It is similar to Scenario 1 with lower force levels. One can debate the merit of eliminating one arm of the strategic triad or the nonstrategic (i. e. tactical) nuclear forces under such circumstances, depending on the depth of the reductions. Cost savings associated with reduced numbers are not directly proportional to the number of weapons since a significant infrastructure is required to support any type of modern nuclear design. The cost advantage would be in the size of the required production plant and not in the diversity of technical capabilities that are required.
At very low stockpile numbers it may be useful to explicitly consider a flexible stockpile" strategy that takes advantage of the flexibility inherent in current nuclear weapon designs. The United States could have a mixed force of weapons based upon current types suitably modified to meet evolving military needs. Special consideration might be given to maneuvering reentry vehicles that can deal effectively with enemy defenses. One could consider tailored output weapons for special applications such as those that produce an enhanced electromagnetic pulse for the disabling of electronics or those that produce enhanced radiation for the destruction of chemical or biological weapons with minimum collateral damage. (There is serious doubt in the nuclear weapons community as to whether such systems could be introduced into the stockpile without additional nuclear testing.) Careful consideration must be given to single-point failure in a reduced stockpile. For example, the use of a common missile or a common warhead for ICBMs and SLBMs would save money but would introduce a potential single-point failure in the majority of strategic forces.
In selecting weapons that would be maintained in a smaller force structure, consideration might be given to those that are the most rugged, the easiest and cheapest to maintain, and the most flexible. Highly optimized weapons may be more efficient, but efficiency can come at the cost of complexity of maintenance. Without nuclear testing, small changes caused by natural aging or required component replacements will introduce some uncertainty into the stockpile, uncertainty that must be figured into military strategy. Understanding such uncertainty is especially important if the number of weapons types is reduced, admitting the possibility of single-point failure of a large part of the force. It may be advisable to view ruggedness and ease of maintenance as principal criteria for the selection of the types and distribution of weapons within a reduced stockpile. Given the uncertainty of future military needs, the ability of a weapon to be maintained, modified, and/or certified without nuclear testing may also be an important element in the decision process.
Scenario 3: Mixed Conventional and Nuclear Strategic Forces
Reasonable assumptions about the development of advanced conventional munitions leads to a scenario where the strategic workload is carried by a combination of nuclear and nonnuclear forces. It is possible to envision nonnuclear components to each of the arms of the strategic triad. Using conventional ICBMs and SLBMs, or their projected replacements, one could design reentry warheads to achieve high accuracy. These warheads would contain smart" guidance systems that would receive intelligence handoffs from satellites or other sources before and/or during flight. Such systems would know that a target exists in a general area, be aware of its potential movement and signatures, and be able to home in on it. Given the kinetic energy of a reentering warhead, it might not be necessary for the system to contain high explosives. Hitting the target might be sufficient to destroy it. Similar warheads could be developed for cruise missiles that could be launched from bombers, submarines, or surface warships. In the case of cruise missiles, the lower velocity of delivery would require a high-explosive warhead.
A nonnuclear long-range weapon would be especially useful against limited numbers of time-urgent weapons of mass destruction targets such as biological weapons warheads that were in preparation for use against U. S. forces. Long-range nonnuclear weapons would enable such targets to be destroyed without causing the United States to be the first to employ nuclear weapons in a conflict. The use of nonnuclear strategic weapons against Russia, China, or other nuclear states would require care, since the appearance of such a weapon on long-range sensors might be indistinguishable from a nuclear attack by the United States.
A word of caution is needed on the use of precision munitions for high-value strategic targeting: The Kosovo conflict demonstrated very clearly that just the ability to place a weapon on the designated aim point is not enough to ensure mission success. Inaccurate target coordinates provided to pilots sometimes resulted in weapons being delivered very precisely to the wrong spot. Effective utilization of precision munitions demand that a premium be placed on the collection and the analysis of target information. This includes postattack damage assessments that determine the need for follow-on attacks and the ability of the adversary to use its weapons for offense or defense.
The nuclear component in this scenario could take one of several forms. First, one could employ a small number of existing weapons designs to retain a traditional counterforce deterrent strategy. Second, one could modify existing designs to reduce their yield, relying on precision delivery to help achieve military objectives. In this case one could use existing reentry warheads or develop new ones with the precision guidance necessary to destroy moderately-hard-point targets with low yield. Third, one could design and deploy a new set of nuclear weapons that do not require nuclear testing to be certified. Such weapons might be, but do not need to be, based on simple gun-assembled uranium designs that do not require a plutonium infrastructure and that do not require the same sophistication in nuclear weapons science and engineering as our current stockpile. However, nothing comes for free, and one must recognize that such simple weapons have important, perhaps fatal, tactical limitations that would preclude their use in some engagement scenarios. Also, such simple devices would be based on a very limited nuclear test database and would require extensive and expensive flight testing to assure that they could be delivered with the required precision. Fourth, one could consider a combination of new or modified low-yield warheads and some existing higher-yield designs to be retained against the possibility of unexpected developments in adversaries defenses or of the need to hold very hard targets at risk. In this case one would need to retain much of the infrastructure of the current stockpile to ensure the continued performance of these highly optimized weapons. Savings could be achieved in the size of the plant complex required to remanufacture components and complete weapons.
Scenario 4: Prospects for Wholly Nonnuclear Strategic Forces
It is almost impossible to conceive of technological and political developments that would enable the United States to meet its defense needs in 2020 without nuclear weapons. There are several reasons for this. First, nuclear weapons continue to play a vital role in deterring other countries from launching significant military strikes against America, our allies, or our vital interests. The real threat of not just military defeat but national annihilation is a potent deterrent now and should be expected to remain so for at least the next few decades. Second, it does not appear possible with current or projected technology to assure ourselves that there are no and never will be any nuclear weapons in the hands of potential adversaries. Given the unique destructive power of nuclear weapons, an asymmetry of this kind should be unacceptable to American military planners. Third, the development of antiballistic missile defense is encouraging, but the assumption that a leak-proof shield can be fielded by 2020 is debatable. Fourth, some targets will not be able to be held at risk by any type of conventional weapon because of their extreme hardness. Fifth, the ability of an adversary to deliver a nuclear weapon by aircraft, cruise missile, naval vessel, or by clandestine insertion into this country are additional concerns beyond the long-range ballistic missile threat. Lacking the ability to deter such threats and to respond in kind would open up the country to blackmail.
It is critical in any discussion of strategic forces to consider the overall stability provided by technology and policy. Such calculations have become considerably more complex in the multipolar world that is expected to persist at least over the time scale addressed in this paper.
The future is unpredictable, but we can count on it to be dynamic. Strategic thinking must be flexible and must consider the evolution of several possible futures, each of which has branches that are contingent on the geopolitical situation and technological capabilities here and abroad. Countries will respond to technology and policy developments in the United States and elsewhere. We must be careful that any changes to our strategic position make the overall situation better and not worse.
Russia has already promised that it will use asymmetric means" to counter advanced U. S. technology. Official Chinese publications indicate that China will likely follow a similar strategy. The capabilities of their own research and development complex should not be underestimated. While Russia cannot yet match the United States in the most sophisticated technology, it has shown a remarkable ability to achieve military objectives through cleverness and sometimes through brute force. Finally, the development of advanced conventional strategic weapons could push the Russians to an even greater reliance on high-yield nuclear weapons. Rather than an evolution toward some fixed strategy, strategic thinking should be done along a flexible time line that recognizes changes in the world and in military technology. What may work at one time may not work at another time when the situation has substantially changed.
One asymmetric" counter to advanced technology is cyber-warfare, including non-explosive weapons that could disable or render ineffective advanced conventional or even nuclear munitions. Precision kill requires sophisticated electronics, and electronics can be affected by various means such as radio frequency or microwave weapons. Russia s electromagnetic weapons program is perhaps the most advanced in the world, and at least some of this technology has been shared with China. Given the uncertainty in future advanced weapons technology, the United States may wish to retain some higher-yield nuclear weapons as hedges against the development of potent point or area defenses. The development of antisatellite weapons would create a similar complication to the United States if we were to rely on advanced conventional weapons that require precise targeting information to be effective.
Arms control initiatives will play an important role in the planning of future strategic forces. Proposed deep reductions in nuclear stockpiles may be a motivation for using conventional weapons as part of the strategic weapons mix. Such a decision will strongly depend on whether warheads or launchers are the counted quantity. If nuclear warheads and not delivery vehicles are the counted quantity, then existing or new launchers can be equipped with advanced conventional warheads. If missiles and aircraft are the counted quantity, we will need to be careful about treaties that allow only one warhead, nuclear or conventional, on a missile. Maintaining an effective deterrent requires a minimum number of nuclear weapons, and the dilution of our forces with conventional weapons could drive us from a counterforce strategy (military targets) to a countervalue strategy (cities) with attendant ethical and perhaps legal problems.
Arms control agreements can assist in strategic planning by restricting certain classes of weapons or targets. If, in some scenario, our weapons are particularly susceptible to nuclear interceptors, then we may wish to negotiate the elimination of nuclear interceptors in return for some other concession. If we are unable to destroy one or more targets by any weapon in our arsenal, we may want to attempt to negotiate away the target in return for assurances that we will not construct similarly hard targets in the United States. Such negotiations are by nature complex because they involve giving up different commodities on each side. However, the advantages of reduced reliance on nuclear weapons, with their large radii of destruction, might be an incentive. Also, the development of new conventional strategic weapons, the use of which might be incorporated into nonnuclear war planning and that will not necessarily lead to national destruction, should be considered with care.
One of the features of nuclear weapons is that they are so destructive that their use is reserved for only the most extreme cases. Making strategic weapons more usable" could start the United States on a path of escalation that could exacerbate and not reduce the potential for war. Conversely, lowering the threshold for using nuclear weapons in response to a strategic situation could raise the level of care with which countries interact. This points to the need for a detailed stability analysis to be performed as a prelude to any arms control negotiations. Such an analysis must explicitly include the balance of nuclear forces, the state and projected future of ballistic missile defenses, and the ability of advanced conventional weapons to perform missions formerly assigned to nuclear weapons. The weapons research and development programs of potential adversaries will provide input to this analysis by providing pointers to future defense capabilities. And, of course, any analysis of future strategic weapons needs must necessarily consider the possible geopolitical situation that will be present at the time of their deployment. Finally, the distinction between tactical and strategic nuclear weapons will fade for small stockpiles. Both types of weapons must be included in negotiations for overall stability to be maintained.
Another important consideration in planning future strategic forces is cost. Nuclear weapons systems are sometimes considered expensive to maintain due to their complexity, their unique characteristics, and the lack of private industry support of some components of their infrastructure. In fact, nuclear weapons are cheaper to develop and to maintain than very large conventional force structures. This was the reason why NATO chose to rely on nuclear weapons as a principal part of its defense against the massive Soviet conventional threat in Europe. Nuclear weapons are considered expensive today because they are primarily strategic in nature and we are in the midst of a strategic pause" that has lessened the perceived need for strategic weapons.
For the DoD, costs include operations, maintenance, and the development of next generation capabilities that will replace current systems upon their obsolescence. For the DOE, costs include the operation of the weapons laboratories and production plants and the material costs associated with weapons refurbishment. To first order, the cost of maintaining the DOE nuclear weapons complex is independent of the number of weapons in the stockpile. Some capability in uranium, plutonium, and other special materials is required. Scientific capabilities must be maintained, especially in those classified areas unique to nuclear weapons, to enable informed decisions to be made on weapons aging, component replacements, and future modifications. Tritium has some variable cost, as it must be produced to support some fixed number of weapons. Plutonium pit production can be maintained at a small rate at Los Alamos, but any stockpile above about one thousand weapons will require the construction of a new large production plant to replace the Rocky Flats facility, which ceased production in 1989. Should the country go to a precision low-yield nuclear force that is based on uranium rather than plutonium, the cost of the large pit-production facility could be avoided, and the remaining high-yield weapons that did employ plutonium pits could be supported by a modified Los Alamos plutonium facility.
The end of the Cold War, the evolution of new regional threats to international security, and the stated desire of many countries to reduce or eliminate their nuclear arsenals suggest that the time is right for a fundamental rethinking of the role of nuclear weapons in national security. Nuclear weapons, as the most destructive instruments yet invented, must be considered as part of a coordinated national security program that employs diplomacy, arms control initiatives, and conventional forces to optimize stability and peace in the world.
Technology assessments suggest that advanced conventional weapons delivered by ballistic or cruise missiles could defeat many targets that are presently targeted by nuclear weapons. Precision delivery of nuclear weapons would enable some classes of hard targets to be defeated with much lower yields than are currently employed. Some number of current nuclear weapons designs might be retained in order to address very hard targets or for traditional deterrent roles. Simple, rugged nuclear weapons designs that might be maintained at relatively low cost and without the need for nuclear testing might be a part of such a strategy.
Nuclear weapons cannot be uninvented. Nor can we assume that their role in strategic deterrence will never change. Prudent thought given to the role of nuclear weapons in the twenty-first century will reap handsome dividends for the national security of the United States and for the stability of the whole world.
I would like to thank Hans Mark for suggesting the theme of this paper and for his helpful comments on its content. I would also like to recognize the contributions of many colleagues, especially John Browne, C. Paul Robinson, Richard Wagner, Carolyn Mangeng, Thomas Scheber, and Gary Stradling. The accuracy and content of this paper are the responsibility of the author and do not represent the positions of the Department of Energy or the United States Government.
Application Showcase Healthcare
Against a background of significant budget cuts and a demographic shift towards an aging population (in the Western world life expectancy is approximately seven years higher than it was 50 years ago), a major challenge for the healthcare sector is to reduce costs without compromising on the quality of treatment and care.
Integration is fast becoming the watchword in healthcare as it is in many industries when it comes to building solutions. Whether it is a hospital, an out-patients department or a care institution, the wellbeing of patients, staff, and visitors has to be catered for. This involves not only the supply of all forms of energy and climate control, but also the provision of security and fire protection. It is not unusual for a large hospital to have up to 100 different medical and building technology systems installed.
The majority of these systems are monitored, operated, and managed separately. In addition, many systems have their own company - or industry-specific standards and protocols, resulting in high costs of installation and operation. The drives for greater efficiency have lead to an increasing number of hospitals focusing on integrated systems, using intelligent networking to allow them to communicate with one another, as a vital contributor to achieving such efficiencies.
Orbis Medisch Centrum
An example of how hospitals are meeting these challenges through the adoption of integrated technology is demonstrated by the Orbis Medisch Centrum, opened earlier this year in the Dutch city of Sittard and christened the ‘Hospital of the 21 st Century'. The goal here is to address head on the challenges alluded to earlier, namely reducing hospital expenditure while offering excellent patient care. The expectation of the hospital's management team is that they will offer healthcare services at rates approximately 10 percent lower than in traditional hospitals but in an environment that appears more like a first class hotel than a hospital.
The interaction between security, fire, and building comfort increases safety in a sustainable way
Siemens technology has enabled the entire hospital complex to be networked, including identity and access control management, IP networks and VoIP (Voice over IP) telephony, the digitizing of all incoming mail, integration of bedside patient terminals and workplace virtualization. Orbis Medisch Centrum is the first nearly paperless hospital in Europe, with electronic patient files and state-of-the-art document management.
In security terms, tracking of patients is becoming an ever-increasing focus. Abductions of babies have been the incidents that have tended to grab the media headlines but in an aging population, the inevitable increased incidences of dementia means that keeping track of elderly patients is also a priority. The RFID (Radio Frequency Identification) system employed at the Orbis Medisch Centrum is used to track people (Siemens also offer the opportunity to track assets). On being admitted to the hospital, patients receive a ‘tag' wristband which features a built-in transmitter. Readers installed on the ceilings and alongside exits report the location and identity of each transmitter to a central server. This system is being used in two departments within the hospital. In the area devoted specifically to the care of the elderly, doors are automatically locked when a patient approaches the door, thus ensuring that any patient suffering from disorientation does not leave their area of care, get lost or leave the hospital unsupervised. In the hospital's psychiatric department, protection is also afforded by the system's room location feature.
The Orbis Medisch Centrum complex is networked through Siemens technology
The security and fire systems at the hospital are also integrated through a Siemens danger management system located in the hospital's command centre. The early and reliable fire detection, along with tailored extinguishing solutions, is all supplied by Siemens. In an emergency, patients, visitors and personnel can be directed from the hazard area to an exit outside of the fire/incident zone by means of visual indicators and loudspeaker announcements. In addition, the floors most affected can be evacuated first, followed by less critical areas. It is important that in an emergency situation, the access control system can be adapted accordingly. Complex access patterns have to allow staff to access the rooms required to carry out their work. The access patterns are multifaceted and often dependent on the time of day: for example, a technician requires access to different rooms than a cleaning operative. However, in exceptional cases such as a fire, it must be possible to change the complex access patterns within seconds to allow for safe evacuation of all persons - without breaching data protection or secure access to medicines.
Benefits for the whole building life cycle
Operators, owners, and tenants of healthcare buildings can use system integration through open system architecture to achieve significant synergy benefits and to reduce costs throughout the entire building life cycle.
The advantages of interaction between different functions and systems in a building are numerous, a primary one being the availability of all the necessary information at the location required. The intelligent interaction between security, fire and building comfort reduces the number of manual interventions required, it increases comfort and safety, and it provides the means to achieve sustained energy optimization.
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5 Characteristics of a Well-Managed 21st Century Classroom
Featured Author:
Julia G. Thompson
Julia Thompson has been a public school teacher for more than thirty years. Thompson currently teaches in Fairfax County, Virginia, and is an active speaker, consultant, teacher trainer, and workshop presenter. Her most recent book, Discipline Survival Guide for the Secondary Teacher. Second Edition, written with busy high school teachers in mind, has just been released. Author of the best-selling The First-Year Teacher’s Survival Guide and The First-Year Teacher’s Checklist. she also publishes a Website (http:juliagthompson. com) offering tips for teachers on a variety of topics, maintains a Twitter account with daily advice for teachers at TeacherAdvice@Twitter. com, and a blog at http://juliagthompson. blogspot. com.
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Julia G. Thompson | Enseñando
Should teachers still worry about students who chew gum? What should we do about those students whose cell phones ring in class? How should we react when we hear students using offensive language?
As teachers, we wonder what to do about these and the countless other behaviors that we witness each school day. Are these the issues that should concern us or should we focus exclusively on the more serious problems confronting our students? After all, dealing with gum and cell phones seems rather silly when weapons at school are a real concern for many teachers.
Many educators are unsure of how to define a class that is well-disciplined because today’s discipline issues are neither simple nor self-evident. For example, we may want our students to be engaged in active learning, but those classroom activities can appear chaotic and noisy. We also struggle with thorny new issues such as cyber bullies, sexting, and online cheating.
Even though we may not always be in agreement about the exact definition of a well-disciplined classroom, most educators certainly know when things are not going well. Misconduct referral notices are remarkably uniform in the types of behaviors that teachers and administrators do not find acceptable in schools. A quick survey of these reveals just a few of the serious misbehaviors that we do not want our students to engage in:
• Violence • Disrespect for authority • Failure to complete work • Bullying • Dishonesty • Tardiness • Truancy
No sensible teacher wants to deal with these and their unpleasant aftermath because we know that these behaviors signal significant disruptions in the learning process and in the success of all of the students in our care.
Since we know what a disorderly classroom is, what then are the characteristics of an orderly classroom? Although there are as many hallmarks of a well-disciplined class as there are teachers and classes, a few of the most significant ones fall under the following broad categories.
Next Page: 5 Characteristics of a Well-Managed Classroom
by Spyridon St. Kogas, Chief Executive Officer of Knowledge Industry Group
This year the British economy reestablish its position to global market, rising its macroeconomic indicators to levels that remind us the period before the Great Depression wave of 2008. The International Monetary Fund has predicted Britain will be the fastest growing major economy in the developed world this year with growth of 2.9%. The Governor of the Bank of England, Mr. Mark Carney is expecting 3.4%. Manufacturing output rose by 1.3% – its best performance since the end of 2009 – and 3.4% year-on-year. Construction rose 0.3% in the first quarter and was 5.1% higher than a year ago.
Everybody has the feeling that the impact of the Great Recession hasn't faded out but the recovery signs are giving a strong sense of optimism for the near future. The forecasts of the IMF placed the UK economy to the fifth position in the world economic rankings behind the US, China, Japan and Germany. And this is not a small thing after five hard years of crisis. From this point of view those who support that this is the right time for a British come back to the world trade & investment agenda probably have right.
The re-engineering of the UKTI strategy for the 21th century is now a crucial challenge for the acceleration of this re-establishment of the British Economy.
We underline that from the UKTI''s strategy plan of 2009 the main concern for the British international re-orientation was the harmonization of the UK economy with the emerging markets and the opportunities that arise beyond the traditional British partnerships, such as US and European Union.
The traditional world-leading role of UK in world trade and the undoubted power of UK economy because of its FDI's attractiveness, make realistic any revitalization of the British ambitions for a dynamic recovery in the world economic giants. And this could be true and would be extremely helpful for the economy of any emerging market. Of course that's why the Mediterranean area should be placed at the centre of UK's attention and the opposite, the countries of the Mediterranean to re-approach their economic relations with United Kingdom from the perspective of its new dynamic role.
The geographical distribution of UK trade does not correspond to the areas of the world with the most economic growth potential. The UK imports and exports are heavily orientated towards the EU and, in particular, the euro-zone. Around a quarter of the UK's trade is with other developed countries outside the EU, while a comparably smaller share of Britain's trade is with the emerging economies to the East and the South.
Spain, Italy, France and Germany together account for 22% of the UK's goods and services exports – an area forecast to grow at under 2% a year up to 2050. However, India and China together account for only 3.75% of total UK goods and services exports yet are predicted to grow at between 6% and 8%.
The need for a strategic acceleration of trade & investment to the Growth Drivers of world economy is vital for the UKTI in the 21st century. We can place on the same category but not on the first line of the global development the Mediterranean markets. Saying this obviously we propose to focus on the emerging Mediterranean and not necessarily to Spain, France or even the Italy.
To support this we use below five countries as cases about their present relations with the UK economy.
UK & Egypt The UK is Egypt's largest foreign investor based on cumulative FDI figures since 1970. Cumulative UK investments in Egypt are estimated at over US$20billion. There are over 900 UK invested businesses (source: GAFI, Egyptian General Authority for Investment), including companies such as British Gas, BP, Shell, Vodafone, Barclays, HSBC, GlaxoSmithKline, AstraZeneca and Unilever. The UK's investment portfolio is diverse including oil and gas, financial services, pharmaceuticals and telecommunications. In 2012 total imports to the UK from Egypt was £624 million and UK exports to Egypt were £921million.
UK & Turkey Trade between the UK and Turkey is worth over $11 billion a year. There are a number of business links between the UK and Turkey. Over 2,500 UK companies are currently operating in Turkey including BP, Shell, Vodafone, Unilever (UK), BAE, HSBC, Aviva and Diageo, Tesco, Harvey Nichols, Marks and Spencer and Laura Ashley. Top UK exports to Turkey include: machinery, mechanical appliances, pharmaceuticals, vehicles, iron and steel, plastics. Nonetheless the UK ranks as the 11th largest importer into Turkey.
UK & Greece Greece has remained a relatively stable, but small, goods trading partner for the UK in terms of the proportion of the UK's total trade in goods. Until 2010, Greece was the 32nd most important destination for UK goods (£1.4 billion or 0.5% of all UK goods exports) and the 29th most important destination for UK services (£1.1 billion or 0.7% of all UK services exports). Adicional. Greece is one of the most visited overseas destination for UK travelers. The new transition of Greek economy to a new economic environment, its too early speaking about Greekovery, concentrated on exports and to an investment-oriented transformation of its market. could be attractive for UK Trade & Inversión.
UK & Tunisia The top UK exports to the Tunisian market are textiles, cereals, gas (natural and manufactured), medicinal and pharmaceuticals, machinery, transport equipment, iron and steel, plastics and chemical products. The main UK imports from Tunisia in are textiles, petroleum products, fertilizers, fruits & vegetables, road vehicles, iron and steel. The UK total imports from Tunisia in 2012 were £ 344 million (£634 min 2010) and the UK total exports to Tunisia in the same year were £ 160 million (£202 min 2010).
UK & Croatia Croatia is a promising market for UK companies. The workforce is skilled; many employees in main cities and towns have university/degree level education. This makes Croatia to offer big investment opportunities on Services and High value added industries. Croatia's traditional trading partners are Italy (15% of total imports), Germany and Austria. The UK visible exports are approximately at £150m.
Conclusión. We used the above examples in order to underline the fact that UK economy has a strong and historical presence in trading relations with the whole area but its position. with the exception of Egypt, in the economic life of those markets is not corresponding with the UK global role and position in the world economy. If someone consider further the dynamic entrance of the BRICS countries in the Mediterranean markets the last seven years, the comparison of their trade flows with the UK ones will give many interesting conclusions.
The importance of the Mediterranean zone in current global economic field summing up to three axons:
1. The Mediterranean region is the concentration area of the new geo-economical flows of global economy.
2. It is the concentration area of the most important geopolitical contradictions.
3. It is the area of the most crucial social, cultural and ecological intercontinental transformations in the world.
The whole frame of action for any global economic giant who want to re-establish its role in Mediterranean is based on the above axons. The advantages of United Kingdom are many but we will stand on this that we appreciate as the central one. This is the bridging character of UK economy, that it is the necessary link for the interdependence of the West economy with the Rest whole world. This precious independent and unique position of UK its not a geographical one, but has to do with its trading and investing diversification to every corner of the world market. The majority of the Mediterranean Markets are conceived by this sentiment of the Emerging Power, they are aware about the opportunities of their relocation on the globalization project and they have already start to demand more from themselves. This is one more dimension of the causes of the Arab Spring for example; to get into the globalised market as equals with the other countries and societies.
For that reason they are really open to partners with experience, global status, international trade & investment networks and higher education services. The Great Britain has these features. The difficult is to test these features into the deep waters of cultural, political and economic contradictions that turmoil the Mediterranean area again and again.
The traditional initiatives, institutes, platforms, networks that were trying to promote the regional integration of the Mediterranean with European economy are not working any more.
Their main targets remain distant dreams. The whole frame in the region is under formation, the regionalism would be more asymmetrical the next five years in the Mediterranean and new players already shape how this going to be true. The sure thing is that the new Mediterranean will need United Kingdom's wisdom and innovative spirit and UK will need the social dynamism, the new resources and the routes of the new Mediterranean.
Note: This is a forum for thought leadership and above all constructive debate. The publication on this website of articles written by members, content partners or any other third party does not necessarily represent endorsement by innovaBRICS & Más allá.
MSM Synergy
Gold Investment
The Benefit of Gold Investment
Gold is one of the most stable and effective instruments of capital saving. Nowadays, almost every interested person can get an access to the global gold market and invest his/her funds in the precious metal. Moreover, gold can be not only dead weight but also a profitable deposit. You can use gold in futures deals, which bring tangible yield. It is very gainful to invest in gold at the period of crises, when other investment instrument cannot give the same result.
Gold is the oldest and the most efficient measure of capital and wealth assessment. Other precious metals were used for the same purposes. Generations were changing, however, foe everybody gold was a common equivalent as well as a means of payment and a commodity at the same time. The Gold Standard system exerted a great influence on the world economic development in the 19 th - 20 th centuries. National borders receded in the face of gold and it served as the main world currency until the 70’s of the 21th century. Due to this, operations with precious metals were under strict control. Generally, the transactions were conducted at the level of the states monetary authorities and the international financial organizations.
However, as a result of contradictions within the system, qualitative changes took place and currency rates became floating. As a consequence, the gold role was changed, on the legal basis it was excluded from the world currency turnover. Liberalization of gold deals began: the private individuals rights for physical possession of metals were expanded. The precious metals market altered, thus not only the market structure, but also its members and the line of operations changed. Nowadays, gold is no lorger a payment facility: however it has not left the system of economic relations. Today the world gold market is a complex of domestic and international markets, which are almost independent from the governments’ control. All this guarantees a 24-hour global trading both in precious metals and in their derivative instruments.
The structure of the demand on the world gold market can be nominally divided into 3 sectors: hoarding at all levels, industrial and domestic consumption and speculative operations. Supply consists of precious metals, private and government reserves, processions of secondary raw materials (Gold) and illegal traffic.
The main sources of supply are gold producers; the main buyers are those who use it for industrial purposes. Both appear on the market irregularly due to different factors. However, we will dwell upon surges and recessions on the market of precious metals further.
The International Gold Markets are located in such cities as Zurich, Hong Kong, London, New York, and Dubai. Strict requirements are imposed on rather few market participants. They are usually big banks and specialized companies, which have good reputation and credit standing. Spectrum of possible transactions at the international market is rather wide. There are no taxes and customs control. Large operations with precious metals are conducted 24 hours a day, which is provided by an extensive clients’ network related to gold market. The deals are not rigidly regulated, as the rules are made by market participants.
Domestic gold markets are the markets of one or several countries focused on local investors mainly. They are divided into open and regulated markets. The open markets are nearly all markets in Europe, for example, in Milan, Paris, Amsterdam, and Frankfurt-on-Main. The regulated markets are located in the Third World countries. On domestic markets, the operations are mostly made with small bars and coins with national currencies being the means of payment.
Black markets can be found in some countries of the Asian region. Their emergence is stemming from the total government control of the operations with gold. The black markets co-exist with closed ones. A closed market is a form of a domestic market organized radically, where the import and export of gold are banned and because of taxes’ rates the precious metals’ trading is not really profitable by the reason of the domestic prices exceeding the world gold prices.
Participants of Gold Markets
Mostly the primary gold is provided by the gold producers. They can be either small enterprises or big corporation. It is quite logical that the company’s influence on the market depends on the quantity of gold supplied by it. Consequently, other market participants pay special attention to the behavior of the major gold producers.
Industrial and jewellery enterprises, as well as companies which deal with refining (clearing of gold).
In some countries there are special sections on the largest stocks which deal with precious metals’ trading and gold in particular.
Different interests of investors lead to various types of investments in the related to gold instruments. As a rule, the most popular instruments for gold market investors are CFDs.
National banks are the hugest operators at gold market, they make rules. It should be mentioned, that active sales of gold reserve is not their main gold but they are demonstrating interest to active utilization of the reserves. The central banks have great influence on the market conditions which was revealed in the 90’s of the 21th century. National banks have big influence on the market climate which has become especially noticeable in the 90’s of the 21th century.
Intermediary and dealers
Professional intermediaries and dealers on the gold markets are specialized companies and commercial banks. They have one of the leading functions as almost all gold goes to their hands at first.
Physical metal market
The largest volume of operations with physical gold is carried out in London and Zurich. Firstly, the major part of all gold trading operations was conducted in London, which was facilitated by the deliveries of the metal from the countries of the British Commonwealth (mostly from the Republic of South Africa). They were attracted by the skilful organization of precious metals trading. Gold was transported from London to continental Europe and from there it was forwarded to the Middle East.
Gold price fluctuation
As a rule gold price depends on worldwide economic situation. Moreover gold price was always indicator of effectiveness or unprofitability of alternative investment instruments. Gold depreciated in the period of funds turnover and extensive use of different instruments of capital increase. On the contrary in case of economy stagnation, its rollback or recession, gold seemed to be the most stable and liquid instrument of capital fixation and its future saving. Here analogy can be drawn to currency exchange market and gold can be compared to Swiss frank which is considered as a buffer where volatility can be waited over.
In other words when “bulls” are ruled on the market, consumption is rising and pulls the entire economic sectors then gold pales into insignificance. But it is temporary. In August 1998 Russia was going through the difficult period: state treasury bills depreciation, oil crisis, and following ruble devaluation hit everybody. That time Russians trying to save their capital bought almost all gold in banks and did not regret. Since August 1998 price of one ounce of gold has increased in three times. Even with a glance of 20% VAT which was taken off that time gold justified investors’ hope. However that time physical bodies were able to buy gold only in Russian banks. Meanwhile price of one ounce of gold formed on the internal market, and price of gold was higher than on the world market because of limitedness of providers and high demand within Russia. Now there are possibilities for Russians regardless of crisis locality to buy gold on the world open market. It became possible not only because of financial and stock institutes’ development in Russia, but because of huge amount of brokers appearance which provide an opportunity of entrance the international markets.
Concerning current crisis, its picture has fundamental features. It not only runs through the economy structure of different countries but provokes the recession. That is why buying of gold is being considered as one of the safest way of capital saving. Last year gold quotations overcame the level of 1000USD. Prices of other precious metals are near the maximum prices. For the first time in last 30years silver approached 21 USD 1ounce. Platinum and palladium rose in price till 2273USD and 582 USD, respectively. However then price of precious metal increased. But this increased did not concern gold. Moreover in spite of decline of production and as a result gold demand among the companies, gold keeps high price due to speculative and capital-saving character.
Other factor have influence upon gold price. For example, US Dollar and Oil Price. Meanwhile gold value movement is inverse relation with US Dollar and direct relation with oil value dynamic. It is declared that when currency exchange market volatility and US Dollar rate decrease, gold appears to be alternative investment harbor. While the price of one barrel of oil increases gold is the mean of petrodollars accumulation.
Monthly Archives: June 2013
Europe, and more specifically the United Kingdom, is the cradle of modern vegetarianism. Before being called “vegetarianism”, the practice of abstaining from the consumption of meat and the flesh of other slaughtered animals was called the “Pythagorean diet”, in the name of the famous Greek mathematician and philosopher who lived from about 570 to about 495 BC. The earliest practices of vegetarianism as a concept concerning an eloquent number of people can be found in ancient India. the vegetarian diet was strongly linked to the idea of benevolence, the respect for life and the avoidance of violence toward animals (called ahimsa in India) and it was spread by religious groups and philosophers. Vegetarianism then reemerged in Europe during the Renaissance, evolved in the 17 th century and continued to be spread in the 18 th century. In Great Britain, a lot of food such as meat, fruits and vegetables, tea etc. were reserved to the upper class only. poorer people could not access those expensive commodities. Therefore, the new interest of British people for vegetarianism was not necessarily linked to the protection of animals yet but to the fact that the great majority of people did not have enough money to get copious meals. But for several other people, vegetarianism was linked to ethical and moral ideas; or to health and medical reasons.
• Vegetarianism and romanticism
Vegetarianism was rising during the 18 th century thanks to the Romanticism movement in western Europe and particularly in Great Britain. The meatless diet was really widespread at the age of Enlightenment when society was changing and new humanist ideas began to develop. Several romantic writers promoted vegetarianism because of their compassion and their deep relationship to Nature. they denounced the consumption of meat as a inhumane and monstrous thing. They had negative ideas about the industrialisation and consumerism that regulated the economy. Therefore, the rising costs of the meat, the agricultural changes and the emerging humanist values encouraged more and more people as well as romantic writers to follow a vegetarian diet. Among the romantics, Thomas Tryon, Alexander Pope, Joseph Ritson and Percy B. Shelley were the most emblematic vegetarians. Thomas Tryon was an English merchant who early advocated vegetarianism after having heard an inner voice that he called the “Voice of Wisdom” in 1657. He inspired Benjamin Franklin to adopt the same lifestyle. Tryon strongly opposed violence against animals so his vegetarianism was linked to his belief in spiritual progress (he was influenced by Pythagoras and his religious views). He first adopted that diet at the age of 23, saying that he only drank water and ate bread, some vegetables, butter and cheese. In his autobiography Some Memoirs of the Life of Mr. Thomas Tryon, late of London, Merchant. Written by himself published posthumously in London in 1705, he argued.
“It is a grand mistake of people in this age to say or suppose: That Flesh affords not only a stronger nourishment, but also more and better than Herbs, Grains, &c.; for the truth is, it does yield more stimulation, but not of so firm a substance, nor so good as that which proceeds from the other food; for flesh has more matter for corruption, and nothing so soon turns to putrefaction. Now, ’tis certain, such sorts of food as are subject to putrify before they are eaten, are also liable to the same afterwards. Besides, Flesh is of soft, moist, gross, phlegmy quality, and generates a nourishment of a like nature; thirdly, Flesh heats the body, and causeth a drought; fourthly, Flesh does breed a great store of noxious humours; fifthly, it must be considered that ‘beasts’ and other living creatures are subject to diseases and many other inconveniences, and uncleanness, surfeits, over-driving, abuses of cruel butchers, &c. which renders their flesh still more unwholesome. But on the contrary, all sorts of dry foods, as Bread, Cheese, Herbs, and many preparations of Milk, Pulses, Grains, and Fruits; as their original is more clean, so, being of a sound firm nature, they afford a more excellent nourishment, and more easy of concoction; so that if a man should exceed in quantity, the Health will not, thereby, be brought into such danger as by the superfluous eating of flesh.”
Thomas Tryon died in 1703. He was, hence, one of the precursors to advocate vegetarianism in the early 18 th century.
Like Tryon, Alexander Pope thought that meat consumption was linked to man’s desire for superiority. He was an English poet, very famous for his translation of Homer and poems such as “An Essay on Criticism” and “The Rape of the Lock”. He was a fervent defender of vegetarianism as he considered the slaughter of animals as a “tyranny” so the vegetarian diet was a way to rebel against the Enlightenment modern ideas. Moreover, he came from a Catholic family so he was affected by the anti-catholic measures of the time and the Test Acts which was aimed at maintaining the established Church of England and banned the Catholics from teaching, studying, voting, etc. He published an essay entitled “Against Barbarity to Animals” in The Gardian in 1713, in which he declared.
“Nothing can be more shocking and horrid than one of our kitchens sprinkled with blood, and abounding with the cries of expiring victims, or with the limbs of dead animals scattered or hung up here and there. It gives one the image of a giant’s den in a romance, bestrewed with scattered heads and mangled limbs.”
For Joseph Ritson, besides Tryon and Pope’s reasons, vegetarianism was also seen as means to avoid health problems. He was an English antiquary and one of the most radical vegetarian. He wrote an essay entitled An essay on Abstinence from Animal Food, as a Moral Duty published in 1802, in which he asserted that vegetarianism would cure any human disease or medical illness. He became vegetarian at the age of nineteen after reading Mandeville’s Fable. He strongly criticized the cruelty of killing animals and the effects that it produced on humans. In his essay, Ritson argued that “the use of animal food disposes man to cruel and ferocious actions.” Moreover, he was anticlerical so he was against religion and most particularly against Christianity. He often linked the fact of eating animals’ meat to cannibalism. eating human flesh was an inevitable consequence of eating animal flesh.
The engraving is a caricature of Joseph Ritson made by James Sayers in 1803. On the top shelf, next to the cat, we can see a copy of Ritson’s Essay on Abstinence from Animal Food
Percy B. Shelley was another major English Romantic poet who shared most of his ideas on vegetarianism with those of Ritson. He wrote several essays on the subject of vegetarianism, the most famous ones being “A Vindication of Natural Diet” (1813) and “On the Vegetable System of Diet”. Even in his famous poem of 1813 entitled Queen Mab . Shelley wrote about the change to a vegetarian diet: “And man … no longer now/ He slays the lamb that looks him in the face,/ And horribly devours his mangled flesh.” His vegetarianism can be explained by the fact that he struggled for the rights of animals after witnessing varied mistreatments towards animals and many slaughters. He agreed with Joseph Ritson on many points and he used his book to defend his integrity and vegetarianism. Shelley wanted his children to follow a vegetarian diet too, but it caused him several problems with judges after his wife committed suicide. He considered the vegetarian diet man’s natural diet which would preserve health and prevent from diseases. For him, following a vegetarian diet would lead to the end of social injustices such as poverty, crime, aggression, capitalism and war. In “A Vindication of Natural Diet”, Shelly made an allegory between vegetarianism and the Creation myth, saying “The allegory of Adam and Eve eating of the tree of evil, and entailing upon their posterity the wrath of God, and the loss of everlasting life, admits of no other explanation, than the disease and crime that have flowed from unnatural diet.”
Through the emblematic vegetarian figures of Tryon, Pope, Ritson and Shelley, we can link Vegetarianism with Romanticism from the 18 th century to the 19 th century, influenced by humanist views and the age of Enlightenment (with the realisation that animals too could communicate, feel pain, and even feel emotion). These writers found the consumption of the animal flesh unnatural and barbaric. It was also a way to rebel against the consumerist market that evolved in the 18 th century. Indeed, more varieties of vegetables became available so practicing a meatless diet became much easier. In Joseph Ritson, Percy Shelley and the Making of Romantic Vegetarianism . an essay published in 2006, Timothy Morton asserts.
“The end of A Vindication alludes to Ritson on Pythagoras: ‘never take anything into the stomach that once had life’. Ritson’s Pythagoras shines through Shelley’s prose. Shelley marked the following passage: ‘the Samian philosopher, a man of universal knowledge, who flourish’d about 500 years before Christ, forbad to kil, much more to eat, liveing creatures, that had the same prerogative of souls with ourselves: and ate nothing himself that had had life. The truth is, he enjoin’d men not to eat of things that had life, but to accustom themselves to meats that were easeyly prepare’d, quickly at hand, and soongot ready without the help of fire
• Vegetarianism as a solution to obesity. a diet based on temperance
Since the 17 th century and during the 18 th century too, vegetarianism rose in England as a treatment for obesity for the wealthy people who consumed a lot of meat during their mealtime. People began to see vegetarianism as a solution to avoid obesity, thinking that it would reduce the risks of cardiovascular and heart diseases. One of the most famous 18 th century obese who advocated vegetarianism was Dr George Cheyne (1671-1743). He was a physician, a mathematician and a philosopher born in Scotland. He is very well known for his contribution to vegetarianism. He was a popular figure who suffered from obesity because of the quantity of food and drink he consumed, which caused him several health problems. To counter them, he started a vegetarian diet composed of milk and vegetables only. It helped him to recover health but as soon as he stopped his meatless regimen, his health deteriorated again so he decided to follow a strict vegetarian diet for a lifetime
Portrait of George Cheyne made by John Faber Jr in 1732
George Cheyne was against gluttony and luxury and he claimed for temperance (especially concerning meal time) as we can read in his Essay on the Gout of 1720. Morale and religious motives were also linked to the medical reasons to follow a vegetarian diet. He often frequented taverns and dining-rooms looking for new clients but it played a big role on the deterioration of his weight. Therefore, after becoming obese, he decided to go to Bath to follow a dietary therapy and where he first acknowledged vegetarianism with a high consumption of milk. As by the early 1720s he could scarcely walk, he was obliged to follow a harsh vegetarian regimen. In 1724, his Essay of Health and Long Life was published, making him be much more famous. A great deal of the essay concerned evacuations and diet, through vegetarianism that he presented as an ideal more than a lifestyle at the time. That diet was based on moderation, with the consumption of white meat, vegetables and water mostly.
His several of his works Cheyne gave dietary advice with more and more religious concerns, as in the English Malady (1733). According to him, a meatless regimen only composed of milk and vegetables would return corrupted people to purity. That arguments are more and more present in his other works. the Essay on Regimen (1740) and The Natural Method of Cureing the Diseases of the Body, and the Disorders of the Mind Depending on the Body (1742).
Here is an extract from another essay entitled Essay on Regimen. together with Five Discourses Medical Moral and Philosophical, &c of 1740, more focused on the treatments toward animals :
“ The question I design to treat of here is, whether animal or vegetable food was, in the original design of the Creator, intended for the food of animals, and particularly of the human race. And I am almost convinced it never was intended, but only permitted as a curse or punishment. At what time animal [flesh] food came first in use is not certainly known. He was a bold man who made the first experiment.
Illi robur at œs triplex
Circa pectus erat.
To see the convulsions, agonies, and tortures of a poor fellow-creature, whom they cannot restore nor recompense, dying to gratify luxury, and tickle callous and rank organs, must require a rocky heart, and a great degree of cruelty and ferocity. I cannot find any difference, on the foot of natural reason and equity only, between feeding on human flesh and feeding on brute animal flesh, except custom and example.
I believe some [more] rational creatures would suffer less in being fairly butchered than a strong Ox or red Deer; and, I natural morality and justice, the degrees of pain here make the essential difference, for as to other differences, they are relative only, and can be of no influence with an infinitely perfect Being. Did we not use and example weaken this lesson, and make the difference, reason alone could never do it. "
• The care for animals and the political activism linked to vegetarianism
One main focus of the 18 th century vegetarianism was the inhumanity linked to the consumption of meat. there was a sort of “humans’ duty” towards animals but also towards people (as it was for the evangelical forms of Christianity). They claimed that making animals feel pain was a sin, as they were suffering as humans do. Vegetarianism became therefore inevitable to avoid causing pain to animals.
Also, vegetarianism was linked to slavery and the developing trade and industry between the British Empire and its colonies (in the Caribbean and in America mostly). Vegetarian people wanted to show their disapproval of slavery and of the mistreatments of people because of the color of their skin. It was a way for them to show their political commitment. Even Dr George Cheyne, in his Essay of Health and Long Life of 1724, showed that vegetarianism was also a way to take part in political activism by characterizing the “sensitive” (intelligent and imaginative people) in contrast to the eaters of Roast beef described as stupid and idiots; as we can see here in the painting of 1748 by William Hogarth :
The painting is about French and English people. Indeed, during his visit in France in 1748, Hogarth could see how the French did not eat well. He had a very low opinion of the French so that was a way for him to spread Britain’s wealth and power with the huge beef carried by a fat clergyman (in the middle of the painting) destined to an English inn located in the North of France. The clergy represents the absolute monarchy that starved the French people. By contrast, the English ate and thrived on their food. In its summary of the painting, Tate’s website adds. “To the left of the gate, framed by vegetables, sits Hogarth himself. As he sketches the drawbridge, the arresting officer’s hand clasps his shoulder.” Therefore, thanks to the representations of meat and vegetables, Hogarth showed in his painting how politically active he was and what he thought of the western Europe societies.
– Cheyne, George. An Essay of Health and Long Life . London, 1724.
– Cheyne, George. The English malady. or, A treatise of nervous diseases of all kinds, as spleen, vapours, lowness of spirits, hypochondriacal, and hysterical distempers, etc . London, 1733.
– Cheyne, George. The natural method of curing the diseases of the body and the disorders of the mind, depending on the body . London, 1742.
– Ritson, Joseph. An essay on abstinence from animal food, as a moral duty . London, 1802.
– Spencer, Colin. The Heretic’s Feat. A History of Vegetarianism . London, 1993.
– Guerrini, Anita. “A Diet for a Sensitive Soul: Vegetarianism in Eighteenth-Century Britain.” Eighteenth-Century Life . Volume 23, Number 2 (May 1999). 34-42
– Puskar-Pasewicz, Margaret. Cultural Encyclopedia of Vegetarianism. Santa Barbara, California, 2010
– Morton, Timothy. “Joseph Ritson, Percy Shelley and the Making of Romantic Vegetarianism.” Romanticism 12.1 (2006). 52-61
Britain in the eighteenth century witnessed “a release of the libido” (Lawrence Stone, 327) due to the Enlightenment’s idea of the pursuit of happiness which made of sexual expression, pleasure and passion essential elements of life. During the eighteenth century contraception was mostly used by the aristocracy and the urban elite (Lawrence Stone, 263) and just like today contraceptive methods could be used by women and men, but did both sexes used contraceptives for the same reasons?
In the eighteenth century, women could have a lot of children – Queen Charlotte for instance had fifteen children with her husband King George III – and “the interval between births was between twenty-four and thirty months” (Lawrence Stone, 52). These repeated pregnancies were very dangerous and many women died giving birth. One of the methods used to space out pregnancies was breast-feeding. Indeed lactation has a contraceptive effect called “lactational amenorrhea” (Robert A. Hatcher and others, 407) because when breast-feeding, a woman has no menstruation and the ovulation is postponed which makes her infertile for some months. Nowadays this method is still used by some women but it is not as popular as it was during the eighteenth century as women are less aware of it and as it is a very restricting way of contraception. Well-fed women could profit from this temporary infertility for about six months and women suffering from malnutrition were infertile for about eighteen months (Lawrence Stone, 52). Moreover this post-natal infertility made it more difficult for women to conceive once the lactational amenorrhea was over which made of this birth control method a very popular one in the eighteenth century. Women were advised to breast-feed themselves their children by doctors so that breast-feeding became a sort of fashion (Lawrence Stone, 248). As we can see on the satirical print below, wealthy women no longer gave their children to wet nurses so that they could be seen topless and feeding their babies in their richest dresses which made of breastfeeding a more fashionable than maternal behavior.
Women could also buy medicines sold on London Markets; these recipes could be used as a contraceptive or for abortive purposes. But these methods were used by a minority only.
“If the party … would not conceive, take one paper of powders in a glass of warm ale, every morning after the man has been with her, and shall be out of danger.”
(Lawrence Stone, 266)
The will to space out pregnancies came also from men who wanted to prevent their wives from suffering or dying while giving birth and new sexual behaviors were adopted. Coitus interruptus, also called withdrawal, was the most used method. This method consisted of the withdrawal of the husband before ejaculation and is said to depend on “extraordinary measures of self-control” (Lawrence Stone, 262). It is even referred to in the Bible:
“And Judah said unto Onan, Go in unto thy brother’s wife, and marry her, and raise up seed to thy brother. And Onan knew that the seed should not be his; and it came to pass, when he went in unto his brother’s wife, that he spilled it on the ground, lest that he should give seed to his brother. And the thing which he did displeased the LORD: wherefore he slew him also.”
Though in the Bible Onan is punished for practicing coitus interruptus, in the eighteenth century because of “the collapse of moral Puritanism” which was at the origin of the released libido, the Bible had lost some of its strength and withdrawal was no longer seen as a sin (Lawrence Stone, 263). However the method is not completely effective. Indeed some semen always escapes from the Cowper’s glands before ejaculation, so that the risk of pregnancy still exists (Vern L. Bullough, 74).
One of the reasons for the development of contraception was economic, for upper classes had larger families than lower classes and the elite wanted to reduce births because of the cost of raising a child. The upper classes had enough money to raise their children but at the time a more child-orientated society developed and families started to limit the number of births because education was expensive and children did not always live long. The Reverend Ralph Josselin spent one third of is £160 a year on the education of his ten children but only five of them still lived when their parents died (Lawrence Stone, 264). It was to prevent this waste of money than families chose to have fewer children.
Other popular contraceptive methods called barrier devices were used by the upper classes. Among them were condoms. As we can see on the following picture, eighteenth century condoms were made of “sheep gut and were secured to the wearer at the base with a red ribbon, which was tied around the scrotum” (Lawrence Stone, 334).
In the eighteenth century condoms were not easy to purchase as they were mostly sold in big European Cities such as Paris and London (Lawrence Stone, 334). These devices were not only used as a contraceptive method, they actually were associated with vice because they were mostly used for “extra-marital affairs”, men used them as a protection against venereal deseases. In his Dictionary of the Vulgar Tongue. Francis Grose defined “cundum” as:
“The dried gut of the sheep, worn by men in the act of coition, to prevent venereal infection”. (Francis Grose)
And in 1776, a London advertizer described condoms as “implements of safety which secure the health of my customers” (Lawrence Stone, 266). Condoms could be used several times and men only had to wash them after each use (Vern L. Bullough, 82). On the caricature below we can see a women in a “condom warehouse” is blowing up a condom to make sure that it is not damaged and a man who appears to be a clergyman is blessing the newly frabricated condoms. A condom trade greatly developed in London during the century and was mostly owned by “a matron of the name of Philips” (Francis Grose) and Mrs Perkins (H. Youssef, 227).
( Quality control in condom warehouse, 1744 )
The Scottish lawyer James Boswell frequently had to use condoms because of his libertine way of life. His London Journal is the richest source of information on sex in the eighteenth century:
“At the bottom of the Haymarket I picked up a strong, jolly young damsel, and taking her under the arm I conducted her to Westminster Bridge, and then in armour complete did I engage her upon this noble edifice. The whim of doing it there with the Thames rolling below us amused me much.” (James Boswell, 255)
“…so I sallied the Streets and just at the bottom of our own, I picked up a fresh agreable young Girl called Alice Gibbs. We went down a lane to a snug place; and I took out my armour, but she begged that I might not put it on, as the sport was much pleasanter without it; and as she was quite safe. I was so rash as to trust her, and had a very agreable congress.” (James Boswell, 262)
He often met with prostitutes such as the “jolly young damsel” of the first extract and the “Alice Gibbs” of the second and he used these devices which he called “amour” to be protected from veneral deseases.
“BOSWELL. Madam, I have had no connection with any woman but you these two months. I was with my surgeon this morning, who declared I had got a strong infection, and that she from whom I had it could not be ignorant of it”.
(James Boswell, 149)
In 1763 James Boswell had a relationship with an actress named Louisa who gave him one of the numerous venereal diseases he had during the course of his life. Boswell did not think it was usefull to wear an “armour” with her but when he discovered she had transmitted him a desease she told she actualy had one three years before but that she no longer had any symptoms for several months and thought that it was cured.
Contraception in the eighteenth century became more common but mainly in families from the elite. People needed contraceptive methods to trim the size of families. To preserve their health women were advised not to have too many children and to space out pregnancies as much as possible. Men also wanted fewer children for economic reasons as raising a child cost a lot of money and they were not assured that the children they spent money for would survive. But men mostly used contraceptive method the preserve their own health as they tended to have mistresses and did not want to have venereal diseases and illegitimate children.
Bibliography – Planned Parenthood of America. “A History of Birth Control Methods” New York,
& # 8211; HATCHER Robert A. and others. Contraceptive Technology . 2009.
& # 8211; STONE, Lawrence. The Family, Sex and Marriage in the England1500 – 1800. London: Penguin Books, 1977.
& # 8211; MEYER SPACKS, Patricia. Privacy: Concealing the Eighteenth-Century Self. Chicago: University of Chicago, 2003.
& # 8211; BULLOUGH, Vern L. The Encyclopedia of Birth Control. Santa Barbara, CA: ABC CLIO, 2001.
& # 8211; BOSWELL, James. Boswell’s London Journal. New Haver, CT: Yale University Press, 1950.
& # 8211; YOUSSEF, H. “The History of the condom.” Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine . no. 86 (April 1993): 226-228.
& # 8211; GROSE, Francis. A Classical Dictionary of the Vulgar Tongue. London: Hooper and Wigstead, 1796.
& # 8211; Seductive fashions: the topless style and the cult of maternal breast-feeding. 1796 (Lawrence stone, 22 image) “The Fashionable Mamma, or The Convenience of Modern Dress” Caricature
& # 8211; ALLEN, Paul. Trigger Issues, One Small Item, One Giant Impact: Condom. Oxford, New Internationalist, 2007. Page 14.
& # 8211; HARVEY, A. D. Sex in Georgian England: Attitudes and Prejudices from the 1720s to the 1820s . London, Phoenix Press, 2001.
In this paper, we will be interested in the question of the female husbands in the eighteen century British society. More particularly, our focus point will be the Mary Hamilton case described by Fielding in his pamphlet The Female Husband, published in 1746. However, according to Sheridan Baker in Henry Fielding’s The Female Husband. Fact and Fiction, on page 213, the author modified some of the real facts. For example, Fielding shifted the male name from Charles Hamilton to George. Sheridan Baker also highlights some parallels between Fielding’s fictional characters and the way he wrote the discourse in the pamphlet. He speaks about the similarities between Mrs Rushford and Mary Price’s ways of speak. This fictional part of the pamphlet creates questions about the reality of the female husbands. So, we will picture the background from the artistic wold to the Fielding’s text to conclude by a representation of those women.
Cross-dressing. a notion of seduction
Cross dressing as used in theater since the sixteenth century because women were forbidden on stage. So, men had to dress as women to perform the plays. But, as it is mentioned on page 22 of A Lesbian History of Britain by Rebecca Jennings, in the eighteen century, women started to go on stage. And more than that, they dressed as men to play male roles. The reversal was a way to attract more public, women were a symbol of seduction even cross-dressed. Females were the embodiment of seduction and the cross-dressing made them even more attractive towards the audience. Rebecca Jennings developed the example of the actress. Margaret Woffington. She was a famous actress of the eighteen century Britain and was familiar with cross-dressing. It was an other way to approach the female beauty. It created a kind of mystery around the body because feminine attributes were hidden and bodies were shaped by the clothes to look as masculine as possible.
In 1739, Margaret Woffington played the role of Harry Wildair in Farquhar’s The Constant Couple.
Margaret as Harry Wildair
by William Hoare
Cross-dressing. an example of early feminism?
Males had the power in the eighteen century British society so we can think that if women dressed as men, it was a way for them to get a little of this masculine power. And it was the case. On Friday the 20th of November 1719, the newspaper the Free-Thinker published an article on «philifophizing upon the Nature of Coquetterie». The first paragraph is about the frontier between men and women and the idea that the limit between gender is not clear. He told the reader about «this bewitching Quality is as apparent even in Men» (The Free-Thinker, 1719, 1). It means that women acted in coquetterie and seduction as men did. There was a kind of shift in power. Then, later in the article, he gave the example of a woman called Angelica who was not well seen by society because she seduced men exactly in the way that a man could seduce a woman. Because of Coquetterie, men lost their control on the field of romance and seduction. But they still had this dominant place in the couple and upon society.
Cross-dressed women lived as men towards society so they get the same rights as men. They were free and had power but they were biologically women. So, as Rebecca Jennings on page 25, it was a certain kind of feminism. But it was seen as an offense by society. Cross-dressing was not officially considered as a crime but women living as men and who married an other women were accuse of stealing the woman’s goods. Once again, this is only a matter of power. They were accused only on a material basis, not the moral point of view. And power comes with money and at that time, women were not supposed to be financially independent from her husband. So, those women were attacked because they got more freedom than their initial place in society let them have.
So, the daily cross-dressing can be seen as a step towards feminism because it was a way for women to exist in the outside society and not only in the inside wold of their homes.
The Mary Hamilton case of 1746
In his pamphlet Female Husband, Henri Fielding exposed the cross-dressing case of Mary alias George Hamilton. In the introduction, he described Mary Hamilton as someone «who was convicted of having married a Young Woman of WELLS and lived with her as her husband» (Fielding, 1746, 2).
The first idea developed in the pamphlet is the criticism of homosexuality. This is the entire first paragraph of the second page. The argument that a woman as to be married to a man not only «for the continuance of the human fpecies» (Fielding, 1746, 3) but also because this is an attitude «directed by virtue and religion» (Fielding, 1746, 3) and this is the «moft rational felicity» (Fielding, 1746, 3). Those women’s behavior not only went against society but most important against the principals as fundamental as religion from which this same society came from.
He used very strong terms to depict the general situation of female husbands. According to Fielding «there is nothing monftrous and unnatural, which they are not capable of inventing. nothing fo brutal and fhocking which they have not actually committed» (Fielding, 1746, 3). This is on this exposed point of view that he started to tell the story of Mary alias George Hamilton. He first explained the education that Mary received as a chid. Telling that she was raised in the respect of her condition in the «principles of virtue and religion» (Fielding, 1746, 4). So, her mother did her best to prevent her daughter from vice but despite her efforts, Mary was guilty of «the moft abominable and unnatural pollutions» (Fielding, 1746, 3).
He followed the chronology of the events by telling her meeting with «Anne Johnfon a neighbour of hers» (Fielding, 1746, 4). Then came the description of the process in which their relationship evolved from friendship to a romantic relationship. He used testimonies from both women to reinforce the truth of the history and those letters were nothing less than love letters. But he did not mention love because according to his point of view, love can be between a man and his wife only. He pulled a moral from this story because at the very end, we learnt thatMary had been condemned to whipping and sent to prison. Fielding wrote. « The prifoner having been convicted of this bafe and fcandalous crime, was by the court fentenced to be publickly and feverely whipt four feveral times» (Fielding, 1746, 24).
We could even read a general warning towards the readers on the last page. «But it is to be hoped that this example will be fufficient to deter all others from commiffion of any fuch foul and unnatural crimes» (Fielding, 1746, 25). There was a moral conclusion to this history, trying to be a man when you were not was a crime which had to be hardly punished because each role had its own world and had to stay in.
But we can question the truthfulness of Mary Hamilton’s story because of the tittle of the pamphlet which is « The surprising history of Mary Hamilton» so the end could be darkened by Fielding to be used as a moral. Nonetheless, Ann Marrow, a female husband had be condemned for money fraud in 1777 because she had been accused to benefit from her wife’s money because she pretended to be a man to marry her. (Jennings, 2007, 34, and The Gentleman Magazine 5th of July 1777)
Here are two prints of Mary Read and Ann Bonny. They were pirates in the Bahamas during the 1720’s.
On this print, we can see that they are dressed as men but showing their female attributes.
They are using weapon so having the same status as male pirates.
Twenty-First Century Crusades?
by Chris Cumming
Beginning May 2 nd of this year [2005], the new Ridley Scott movie, “Kingdom of Heaven” depicting the twelfth-century Crusades was released in no less that 54 countries covering Europe, the Middle and Far East. In the few short weeks since this release, there have been published a number of books, news articles and editorial pieces covering both the movie and the impact of crusades on current events. Just what do we know about the Crusades? ¿Cuál era su propósito? Who instigated them? What prompted these military actions? Who was affected? How are the crusades linked to events we see unfolding today in both Europe and the Middle East?
Could we see twenty-first century crusades in the near future that will mimic those crusades of almost 1,000 years ago? Could this be the incident that will fulfill the key prophetic event of armies around Jerusalem we read of in Luke 21:20: And when ye shall see Jerusalem compassed with armies, then know that the desolation thereof is nigh .
Reasons for the Crusades The most immediate cause for the Crusades was Muslim incursions into previously Christian lands. The crusades were mainly directed toward Jerusalem and the Christian shrine of the Holy Sepulcher. In the movie, we see 200,000 Muslim warriors surrounding and overcoming Jerusalem. The Catholic Church in Western Europe fought the Crusades against heretics or in other words, Muslims because their belief differed from that of the official church. At this time in Europe was a feudal society controlled by the monarchy, clergy and the knights. The church had the utmost authority. The Pope was the head of the church and carried the most religious and political power and influence over the land. The Crusades were part of the church’s wish to expand its empire.
The Pope was able to grip the whole of Europe with “Crusade Fever”. Part of his propaganda was to attack the authenticity of the Qur’an and the Prophet Muhammad, who were both tagged imposters, sorcery, evil, satanic and pagan. The church actually had citizens believing they could pay their penance for their sins by going off and slaughtering believers of other religions. History records at least nine crusades during the 11 th. 12 th and 13 th centuries. Several see direct linkage between those crusades and current events affecting most of the world.
Today’s Events Seeded by Crusades In a recent article in the Los Angeles Times, “Blame the Crusades ”, they begin by speaking of the movie itself. “From swords to suicide bombers, the West’s relationship with the Middle East hasn’t changed much in the past millennium. That’s why the film, ‘Kingdom of Heaven’ struck such a chord. It rams home the notion that events during the Crusades eerily parallel current world affairs. The movie ends by noting that in modern times there is again conflict in the Middle East. That misses the point. The Crusades aren’t just a true-life allegory of current world conflicts. In various ways, they’re a major part of the reason those conflicts exist.”
Later in the article one reads, “The crusades created a mind-set in which Muslim presence would not be tolerated in Europe, which played out violently when Spain expelled its Muslims in 1492. Popes had long exhorted European Christians to sever all relations with Muslims, a call that echoes to this day. Newly elected Pope Benedict XVI opposes allowing Turkey into the European Union, saying it runs counter to history; he also deplores European multiculturalism as ‘fleeing from what is one’s own.’” Our staff writer, Michael Burkert speaks to this in his word from, “Europe’s Tolerance May Soon End .” Will these events of old be played out again? In his commentary, Mr. Burkert states:
“Muslim hatred for the European countries and peoples, who have welcomed them over the past fifty years, may soon bring about a reaction that will rock the western world.”
“There are indications that the breaking point may come soon.”
“European Muslims, through their refusal to assimilate and adopt European customs and traditions, are rapidly setting the stage for a backlash movement that may well see the majority of Europe’s indigenous peoples turning against the Muslim foreigners.”
Matein Khalid, a Dubai-based investment banker just published an editorial piece on the Crusades. In it he says, “The Crusades changed both Europe and the Middle East and their echoes, nine centuries later, still resonate in Arab politics.” “The modern Arab world was shaped by the Crusades as surely as the West was. While the Frankish knights and feudal lords squandered fortunes in the Holy Land, the kings of Europe became stronger, the genesis of the rise of the nation state in France that culminated in Louis XIV, Napoleon’s conquest of Egypt and, later, Algerie Francals. The concept of Arab nationalism was unthinkable without the Crusades.”
Not just Muslims But Jews
When the Popes across these centuries of the Crusades whipped the populace into a murderous frenzy, other non-Catholic groups were targeted. Jews were killed in both Europe and the Middle East. Going back to the LA Times article, “Crusaders often wondered why, if they were fighting Muslims in far-off lands, they should leave unmolested other 'infidels' closer to home—Jews. Thus the Crusades gave rise to the first big waves of violent anti-Semitism in Europe, which would flare for centuries and eventually feed the Nazi Holocaust. This in turn gave birth to modern Zionism, seen by Muslims as another European imperialistic attack.”
Alan Woods in his recent article, “George W. Bush and the Crusades ” quotes the crusaders themselves regarding the Jews:
“We have set out to march a long way to fight the enemies of God in the East, and behold, before our very eyes are his worst foes, the Jews. They must be dealt with first." And again: "You are the descendants of those who killed and hanged our God. Moreover [God] himself said: 'The day will yet dawn when my children will come and avenge my blood.' We are his children and it is our task to carry out his vengeance upon you, for you showed yourselves obstinate and blasphemous towards him. [God] has abandoned you and has turned his radiance towards us and has made us his own.” (N. Cohn, The Pursuit of the Millennium, p. 70.)
Economics and the Crusades
As the Crusades got underway, European merchants saw an opportunity to get rich by linking up and taking advantage of Middle Eastern trade routes. Clearly Europe has a strong economic interest in Israel and the Middle East today. Quoting form the Alan Woods article again:
“The merchants were even more interested in the success of this venture. The Turks now controlled the lucrative trade routes to the East, like the famous Silk Road. The most Christian merchants of Venice, Genoa and other European ports were completely shut out, and they wanted to get a share of the action. The crusades were their best chance to do this, moreover under the banner of the Almighty. This was an opportunity not to be missed.”
Recent events have shown us Europe’s keen interest in Middle Eastern oil and arms trade. As world tensions increase, we will see this repeated and may include Europe having to interject itself politically and militarily into Israel and the Middle East.
Twenty-First Century Crusades? -- What to Look For
My original question was, “could we see events in Europe that would mimic the Crusades and result in a political, religious and military incursion into Israel and the Middle East.” As with the Crusades, there are many elements, each of which could act as indicators that such an event might take place.
In Europe: 1) Continued tension and backlash against Muslims in Europe. [ reference Euro-Intolerance Word from ] 2) Acts of terror increasing throughout Europe.* 3 ) An increase in anti-Semitism. [reference New Anti-Semitism Word from] 4 ) Growth and increased political power in the Neo-Nazi movement and/or by one central power. [reference Nazi Word from]
From the Vatican and the Pope: 5) The Vatican becoming involved in the political affairs of the EU, including a new constitution that will be embraced by what German chancellor Gerard Schroeder is calling his “inner circle” of fast-track European Union member states. [ reference Power of the Pope Word from] 6) The Pope laying even greater emphasis than John Paul II on both doctrine and authority of the Church. 7) The Pope taking radical steps to bring all sheep back into the fold and filling the currently empty pews of the Catholic Church. 8) The Vatican demonstrating intolerance for the Muslims in Europe. Possibility of the Pope speaking negatively toward the Muslim faith, its beliefs and the Qur’an. He could conceivably call for a new "crusade" against Islam. 9) The Catholic Church getting directly involved in the “Road to Peace” process. 10) A call by the Vatican for Christians throughout the world to make pilgrimages to Jerusalem. This may or may not be coupled with increased persecutions and attacks against Christians in Jerusalem and throughout the Middle East. 11) The Vatican expressing special interest in the Temple Mount and other holy sites in Jerusalem. 12) A visit by cardinals and/or the Pope himself to Jerusalem as well as, other Middle East countries.
Military Movements/Build-ups: 13) Continued build-up of the EuroArmy despite initial rejection of constitution. [reference EuroArmy Word from] 14) News stories speaking to possible EU troop movements to Israel and/or the Middle East.* [reference Two-Key Prophecies--Armies Around Jerusalem ] 15) The EU taking political and even military steps to insure the flow of oil to Europe.* [reference United Europe section]
In Israel and Middle East: 16) Destruction of Arab mosques either by Israel or some other catastrophic event such as an earthquake coupled with walls falling on the Temple Mount.* [reference Two-Key Prophecies-Temple Mount ] 17) King of South to push against Europe, possibly in the form of oil embargo or other means* [ reference Will Mubarak Emerge As The "King Of The South?" Word from]
The LA Times article ends with a haunting question as it ends its discussion of the movie depicting the Crusades: “In effect, ‘Kingdom of Heaven’ asks the insipid if sincere question, ‘Can’t we all just get along?’ The more pertinent question is: How do we change the ending of a story whose plot was cast nearly 1,000 years ago?"
Breaking News Stories Go here for the latest news stories on this subject. - News stories added 7 March 2016
Also reference our Quotes from The Media on the Crusades . aquí
Description of all the Crusades from Answer. com
The economic meaning of ‘intangible capital’ (according to World Bank research)
Abstracto
In the following article, it will be proven on the basis of correlation analysis that ‘intangible capital,’ interpreted by the World Bank as both human capital and the quality of the institutions supporting economic activity, in fact represents the actual capacities of a given country to export non-commodity goods. The significant amount of ‘intangible capital’ found in highly developed countries lies in sharp contrast to the relatively smaller amount found in Russia; explained by its colonial-type trade system and the multiplier effect of added value.
The economic meaning of ‘intangible capital’ (according to World Bank research)
The economic meaning of ‘intangible capital’ (according to World Bank research)
intangible capital; national wealth; added value; unequal exchange; export of raw materials
Marina Viktorovna Ledeneva
24. Dec 2010 21:02
01. Jan 2016 14:42
Andrianov, V. D. The national wealth of Russia. // BIKI. 2005. № 138, 2-3.
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Globalization, growth and poverty: building an inclusive world economy. The World Bank policy research report. Washington DC, 2002.
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Inozemtsev, V. L. Modern post-industrial society: the nature, contradictions and perspectives. Moscow: Logos, 2000. URL: http://filosof. historic. ru/books/item/f00/s00/z0000946/
Inozemtsev, V. L. "Globalization" of national economies and the current economic crisis. URL: http://www. archipelag. ru/geoeconomics/global/challenge/crisis/
Karpenko, O. M. Bershadskaya, M. D. Voznessenskaya, Y. A. Indicators of the education level in the world: an analysis of international statistics URL: http://www. demoscope. ru/weekly/2009/0375/analit02.php
Kunte, A. Hamilton, A. Dixon, J. Clemens, M. Estimating National Wealth: Methodology and Results. The World Bank, Environmentally Sustainable Development, 1998.
Makhijani, A. From the global capitalism to economic justice. / Institute for Energy and the Environment. Novosibirsk, 2000.
Martin, H.-P. Schumann H. Trap of globalization: the attack on prosperity and democracy / M. Publishing House “Alpina”, 2001.
Lipke, J. Ungleiche Arbeitsteilung und Entwicklung im Weltsystem: Quantifizierung von ungleichem Tausch in monetärer und ökologischer Dimension. Berlin: Wissenschaftlicher Verlag Berlin, 2010.
Long-term prognosis for scientific and technological development of the Russian Federation (2025). Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation, 2008. Federal Portal Protown. ru. URL: http://protown. ru/information/hide/4451.html
Shishkov, Y. V. Prospects for further growth of the population of the Earth. // External Economic Bulletin. 2003. № 1. 11-23.
Smith J. W. ¿POR QUÉ? A Deeper History Behind the September 11th Terrorist Attack on America. Third Edition. The Institute for Economic Democracy Press, 2005. URL: http://www. ied. info/books/why/
Somel, C. Estimating the surplus in the periphery: an application to Turkey. In: Cambridge Journal of Economics 27 No. 6, Pp. 919-933.
Spartak, A. N. The actual problems of foreign trade development and management of foreign economic complex of Russia. // BIKI. 2008. № 128, 1-7.
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The patent race. // Problems of local government. 2007. № 2 (22). URL: http://www. samoupravlenie. ru/22-07.html
Where Is the Wealth of Nations? Measuring Capital for the 21th Century. The World Bank. Washington DC, 2006.
Working Capital Management Relevant In The 21st Century Finance Essay
Published: 23, March 2015
In these contemporary days, all businesses trying to keep their working capital management at high level and also trying to get with 21th century. Up to date, the main aim for all business are to survive, to exist and to struggle each other; so this requires keeping a proper working capital management against unexpected events resulting from the future.
Two companies, Arçelik a. ÅŸ. which was established at 1955 by Rahmi Koç. has 22,000 workers and 14 facility around world and 8,4 billion Tl revenue within ; Vestel a. ÅŸ. which was established at 1953 by Mehmet Zorlu that wants to become worldwide company continued export oriented growth strategy and has 15 000 workers. were chosen for this case study.
Quality racing and competition of last 10 years helped home appliance industry has in large degree in Turkey. Immediately after, beginning of consumer awareness led businesses into competition. Thus, among the companies which are operating in the same sector, Arçelika. ÅŸ. And Vestel A. S. should have the right working capital management mechanism to survive.
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Moreover, by checking of Arçelik and Vestel working capital management, it can be said that which kind of problems they will face and will affect on the market. For example, DSO. DPO. DIO and CCC have to be low and also CCC must close to shortest(smallest) level which is company reach. minimum level of CCC represent effective operation and cash management for companies, so after analysis which will be made. the right comments can be made about Arçelik and Vestel. In the end, depending on the results and problems, the right recommends can be mentioned.
It can be said that 3 phases in business life;
First one is introduction part for investors' ideas and plans,
Second phase is that the investment which is decided to be made by investors and turning out of the company.
In the last phase, going into operation of a company, meaning that, providing of all equipments, labor force, starting to produce and to sell of all products.
Importance of working capital management arises. Working capital management is the most important component of business activities, and focuses on short term investments and investment decision of companies' success of company depends on having enough of net working capital and being of good quality. This is Due to the success of a company related with power of paying its debts. capable of finding new credits and also having a good net working capital. At the first instance this easily explains why working capital management is so important for progress. Whether an international company or a domestic company, all principles of working capital are the same for all institutions. Thus, companies decide that how much amount of investment will be made and how to finance them by taking into consideration of risks and stability. Companies try to raise their values with decisions in working capital management. However; international businesses encounter with difficulties as international financing and investment opportunity as well as fluctuations in value of money, the potential foreign exchange controls, a large number of tax applications.
As it's seen, working capital management is not only the component of working capital; it also includes decisions about how working capital will be funded for future beings.
Nonetheless, Current assets and current liabilities play an important value for balance sheet of businesses; also ensure continuity of businesses, which are components that deeply related with working capital management.
Finalmente. Working capital company work at full capacity, production must continue, uninterrupted. for positive business volume, broaden, and thus reducing the risk to meet its obligations to increase the credit worthiness, financial distress in times of crisis, and not live to carry out the profitable activity and efficient manner is of great importance.
3. Is Working Capital Management relevant in the 21st century?
It is strongly seen that working capital is most important case in the 21st century. Working capital finances the cash flow cycle. When working capital is negative, and then means company has no funds from its day to day operations.
Working capital answers that how much funding a business needs to operate? Short term funding is very necessary for companies; because to make the way in long term, it is needed cash in short term to survive against go bankrupt. Later on, net working capital will be positive means that current asses excesses current liabilities. From companies' looking, excess of working capital operating inefficient. Because it shows that customers still owe to the company, there is no money return and cannot be used for company obligations. This can be observed by comparing working capital structure of the company's time to time. If there is slow collection, this can give signal of incoming problems.
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The main goal of working capital management is to obtain the balance of each working capital components. Therefore; the main is, convert funds held in banks to cash thereby maximizing the interest earned. In recent years, dynamic discounting method is used on customers to maximize working capital. This will provide early payment to companies, more cash inflow to be used for obtaining proper operating in working capital management.
At the present day, necessity of working capital may vary according to departments. Each component must be placed on the right department to be used. Because, whilst some departments need significant levels of inventory; the others need little. The necessity of working capital management must be taken into account in relation to other aspects of departments.
4. Definition of working capital management
Working capital is all assets convertible to money and all expenses are done, in order to be used for starting into operation of a company as well as to carry these all activities on. Current assets are gross working capital. So, what is net working capital? It is the result of:
Current assets - short term liabilities = Net working capital
Therefore, all current assets defined as:
5-prepaid expenses for future months
All components of current assets are really important case for business to provide a good lead in working capital management to avoid from current risks in this current century. In accordance with all of these information's, a successful working capital management has to bear these points below:
2-Short-term and liquid
3-all components are moving and interrelated each other
4-working capital decisions can be revised as soon as possible
5-Investments have limited effect on the degree of business risk
CASE STUDY - ARÇELİK
-Providing of profitable, long-termed and sustainable growth
-To maintain with positive growth, increasing of target market share threshold
-Innovative, reaching more consumers with the products and implements
-To see the future with institutional consciousness
-Being a global group; providing of integration of all components and optimization
''Adding value of human life by providing innovative, protector of nature, authentic, technologically developed product's to create value for the customers''.
''They change their objectives due to the changing on new vision and Core operation goals pegged in line with its new vision describe three aspects of sustainability in economical, environmentally and socio-cultural. Targeting participate in solution within the profile of perpetuity approach, Arçelik. sustains its efforts targeted towards change in climate and safe keeping of scarce natural resources''.
5.2 Company s business segments and Market share
Arçelik growth %8 in 2010 in 6 products, Arçelik A. Åž. is the leader of the consumer durables sector in Turkey and Romania, the second place in UK market. The first five place in all Europe. World's top ten consumer durables brands in nine main product segments,  leader in consumer durables market and in fridge, freezer and oven product groups in UK. Second brand in the fridge market in Belgium, In Poland, the second exporter in washing machine market and third exporter in freezer markets, In Lithuania, first brand in all white goods market and in washing machine and fridge product groups. Business segment produce in durable consumer goods industry, marketing and after-sales services.
Market size 6.5 million unit Market value 4.5 billion Tl %20 of Eastern Europe and Russia
5.3 Business performance EBIT and ROCE
EBIT: Firstly, let's look at the EBIT, which is illustrated by graph below. We can see that amount of EBIT tl mn was changing year by year.
The exact amount of each year is follows:
The graph is showing us general vision of the company, which provides assumption how much cash get into the company from their core business before the interest and taxes. Moreover, it presents operating profit after the global crisis in 2009 when the company increases their operating profit. However, after 2009 the operating profit tends to reduce due to the euro crisis in EU zone. When we look forward at the Arçelik global operating network, we can notice that 10 countries from EU zone fit in decreasing profits (Romania, France, Slovakia, Germany, Czech Republic, Spain, Italy, Slovakia and Poland). In result disposable income reduced in EU zone and the costs of raw material and unfinished goods accrued. In spite of that from 2010 to 2012 the operating profit tends to increase due to crisis effect decrease.
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ROCE: Indicates the efficiency and profitability, which are coming from company's capital investments. ROCE should always be higher than company's borrowings, because high borrowing rates cause less shareholders earnings - a good ROCE is greater than borrowing rates.
The formula is: EBIT / (Total Assets-Current Liabilities)
ROCE 2010:638/4979: 0.1281=%12.81
Change, which has place from 2009 to 2010, has got two causes. First one is total asset, the company increased their total assets for investing, total assets getting narrowed within net capital working, which reflected liquidity problem. Furthermore, from 2009 to 2010 they reduced their current liabilities and this was the reasons, which affected ROCE in 2011 increasing total assets continued. Firm faced to liquidity problem, but in the other hand, when we are looking at credit note from Fitch Ratings is AA. That's why quality of companies is in bit higher risk than AAA and this position makes AAA the best credit note, which is stable and at minimum risk.
6.1 Company's Profile ( Vestel )
-Vestel focusing on the core business activities of the production of high-quality consumer products constantly under the control of both revenue and profitability development aims to achieve.
-Europe will be remaining as the main target of Vestel, to respond new trends and add new products; its portfolio aims to be close the market.
-In order to maintain its position in the market, Vestel, aims to invest more in research and development.
-Internal market of the company will continue to play a pivotal role in all business activities.
-The main target areas are electronic products and white goods; Vestel also expects to improve its efficiency both domestic area and abroad.
6.2. Business Segments and Market Share
Vestel continued to be the leading choice of customers a total of 15 million units in 2008 with the production of the main export market in Europe. Vestel serves its customers as produce TVs, white goods and digital goods. Vestel that exporting to 131 countries worldwide offers leading-edge product to consumers. Accounting of %76 of sales, which is 2.8 billion dollars composing of %86 total exports were to Europe. The target countries are Germany, Switzerland, Australia, Denmark, Spain, Italy and Portugal. Vestel carried out export LCD TV as by %82 in 2010.Vestel has hold the title of '' Turkey export champion '' in the electronics industry for over 13 years; also Vestel won the second prize among 500 most exporting companies. Vestel is not satisfying with being export champion of its sector also it wants to be a champion in Turkey's market thanks to module production.
6.3 Business performance EBIT and ROCE
We should take into account the white good market for Vestel company by the reason of different sector. Due to this we are taking VESBE (Vestel White Good company ) as an exaple.
The ebit data from 2009 to 2011: 2009-169 2010-31.4 2011-59.9 indicates that after 2009 the operating profit is significantly decreasing in Vesbe and Arçelik EBIT, but in here the decrease is so sharply, which is the first cause of EU zone crisis due to the increasing costs. Taking further look at the balance sheet and income, in 2010 statement income from sale accures as compared to 2009, but the cost of sales are increasing as well. Another important point is that gross profit, and gross profit from business operation, decreased for about %50. Moreover, administrative and marketing expenses increased as well as R&D. After all to see the core causes there is need for investigate the other ratios, but even if we compare Vestel with Arçelik, there is one conclusion that Arçelik managed the crisis better than Vestel Even so, in 2009 governmet encourged excise tax and companies, therefore, increased their incomes. this is very important information to understand the difference between 2009-2010.
For Vestel company ROCE now is very significant for investors due to EBIT.
The formula is. EBIT /(Total Assets-Current Liabilities )
ROCE2009. 169/647 :0.2612=%26.12
As we can see in graph in 2009, due to the government policy, Vestel used opportunity well, but after 2009 the data's decreasing sharply and it is pointing out that this company is not stable. By the reason of this, it is not possible to managed the risk and unexpected developments from credit rating the notes from Moody's they gave to Vestel B2 (rating) it means ''Judged as being risky and a great credit risk'' It appears to be, Â it's unstable and the company is not so confident in dealing with investors also the risk level maximum in this company for investors. In other words Vesbe for investors is like a dice game.
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7. Working capital analysis
Price time's quantity gives total revenue. For short-term analysis, production decision, it's very important component for company's due to balance quantity and price to get maximum profit. We will compare Vestel and Arçelik company with graphs
(The graph shows the difference between Arçelik and Vestel. For the first look we can notice that Arçelik and Vestel are increasing their total revenues, which is a positive signal for country's economy, like also important factor for development in export, by the reason of exported goods. 2010-2011% changed total revenues for Vestel, which in consequence gave %38. It is significant increase for this company, but on the other hand for Arçelik from 2010-2011 % change in total revenue amount %21. As the result, this two data showed us that white good sector is getting wider in internal and external market. However, important thing is that, it should be sustainable for these two companies.
Below there is the other information about revenues, inventories increasing from 2009 to 2011:
For Arçelik: (ml tl)
For Vestel: (ml tl)
For Vestel from 2010 - 2011 increasing from inventories was at %41 and for Arçelik in 2010-2011 %55. Therefore, now we can understand why the operating income is decreasing from 2009 until 2011. On the one hand, these two companies should increase their Total revenue sustainable, on the other hand they have to take into consideration inventories and cost of production, it's reducing the aim of profit maximization and the last thing is Total revenues and operating income should be parallel for company s goodness.
It indicates that a number of the days to get revenue by a company which has been paid after transaction. If DSO is low the company will be paid in fewer days so the account is receivable. Otherwise, high DSO shows that the company receives money in longer days, like credit to its customers.
The formula of DSO Accounts receivable/Total Credit Sales x Number of Days
In this graph as we can see again Vestel DSO is amazingly high in 2009. Then if we look at the Account receivable from 2009 to 2011 (2009: 347, 2010: 444, 2011: 606) Account receivable is increasing. When we turn back the formula we can understand the reason of credit sales decreasing due to the lack of collecting receivable activity. If we look at the different perspective to this case, Vestel wanted to catch Arçelik in Domestic and Foreign market. In addition to this they made amazing promotions like 36 48 month installment for white goods, which reflected on 2010 EBIT's reduction from 168 to 31. Moreover, due to the collecting activity 210.37 days when the company couldn't take the money from customer, the production of new products was impossible and R&D department couldn't make new investment. Finally, the most important thing is the company needs liquidity for the continuation of it. However, after 2009 they changed the policy on credit sales and the DSO was going back to the balanced way like Arçelik. Also as we can see the graph, Arçelik is trying to defend their policy just in 2009 we can notice that government excise tax incentive. The DSO was increased due to this promotions cost too. Therefore, good advice is: If your competitor is making promotion you should make too. Nevertheless, this changing is not as significant as Vestel after 2009 by the reason they turned back the normal policy and the DSO was going to be stable, which is also very important for companies (it should be not high and stable). What is more to mention, industrial average's is very important on this topic and for White Good business generally producer is selling their product with long periods. Also we can look from the other perspective and see that the company doesn't fix on their income to DSO as the consequence the company has got strong economy. In this example Arçelik is taking positive advantage.
A financial measure indicates that how long time the company's inventory turn its inventory into sales quickly. This gives investors an idea of this process will be higher or lower. The lower DIO is the better, means that inventory quickly turn into sales and become cash; but DIO varies from one industry to another. So, decreasing days show an improvement in working capital.
Here is how the DSI is calculated:
Inventory/Cost of Sales x 365
DIO has got key role for working capital management. The issues are being debated on last 5 years in whole world and DIO is able to make change in industrial perspective. For instance, for automotive sector the number can be 7.6 times or 8 times in one year. In the DIO Arçelik company is trying to do not change their policy and again it is showing us significant role of the Arçelik Company in this sector. Further, as we can see in this graph Arçelik is trying to develop their working capital year by year (we will see the graph of Net working Capital) DIO mean how quickly company can turn inventories into cash and it mean Liquidity after 2009 and as the result both company decrease their DIO levels, which is good sign for both company. What is more in 2009 Vestel under the average industrial level of DIO by 155.24 days and created Liquidity problem for company. The sharply decrease from 2009-2010 explained again to us why it happened (Also we will see in DPO) In white good sector it's important to keep the high level of DIO, but in assumption that 40 days level can be arguable for Vestel again.
It indicates the average number of days a company pays to its suppliers.
The formula is: (Account payables/cost of Sales)*365
Days payable outstanding is the activity how a good a company managing its account payable. The lower ratio, the quickest time the company has to pay the liabilities, the higher ratio means better credit ratio term the company gets from the suppliers. So increasing in DPO is improvement, decreasing in DPO is distortion.
In 2009, as we can see in the graph, Vestel is paying their supplier more than 1 year 371.84 days and after 1 year they decreased to 64.61 days and the DPO making it longer. The DPO is positive affect to our company, but on the one hand when we will make this time longer our suppliers will affect from this negatively and for next year it will affect our net profit, operation profit etc. In addition, one more time we can understand the sharply decreased in 2009-2010 of Vestel company in this example. On the other hand, for Arçelik DPO is very small for 2009 34.9 days and this is good for our retailers, but for our company C2C cycle it will affect negatively. According to this information Arçelik increased and we can assume that made it longer DPO period 34.96 day to 64.90 days.
7.5 Cash Conversion Cycle
The length of time, in terms of days, that takes for a company to convert its resources into cash flows. This amount of time the inventory is needed to be sold, to collected receivables and the time the company is capable of paying its bills. Company obtains inventory on credit, results that accounts payables. And also company can sell products on credit, results that in account receivables. So, cash conversion cycle measures the time between cash outflow and cash inflow. The cycle is important for especially retailer, accordance with in short term importance. The shorter cycle, the less time capital is attached to business process, and so the better for the company profit line.
The formula is. CCC:DIO+DSO-DPO
In Cash conversion cycle we will understand better other indicators too. Now we should look at 2009 for both companies. Vestel has negative CCC, which means that they are not paying their supplier and concentrate at the DPO Vestel DPO we will see that is 371.84. By the reason of that it represents that they are not paying and it is affecting CCC. What is more there is explanation of sharply decreasing in 2009-2010 and increase of CCC after 2009. The result of this is change in the policy of DPO (they are bringing it to balance). Arçelik decrease their CCC, which made a positive effect for company and after 2009 they brought it up to the steady line. Moreover, for Arçelik we can't suggest the same fluctuation is going on 2009 to 2010, because of increasing from 2010 to 2011 decreasing. Therefore, period from 2010 to 2011 provided to as suggestion that Vestel is trying to fix their company structure. In contrast to that from 2009 to 2010 for investors Vestel is like risky game, but in general perspective Arçelik is trying to do their vision statement of Sustainable growth and they are not dice. On the other hand, Vestel is taking a big risk for their company.
Further, we can look at the other companies for White good market in graph below.
The Electrolux CCC from 2009 to 2010 is decreasing and after one year increased a bit, but we can assume that the graph looks like Arçelik graph, so also Electrolux looks like Arçelik, of course there is a difference from amount, but Arçelik has got 2 problems in CCC. First one is about low DPO and the second one is about high DSO. When Arçelik reduces DSO 40-60 days level, and also when the DPO level move to 60 days, the CCC will come to 50-60 days level. In the consequence the company will be more efficient than before. Furthermore some people do not support this analysis by the reason of misleading information for Investors. To understand whole financial structure of companies we should analyses all indicators.
Net Working Capital for Arçelik A. ÅŸ
Mn TL
2009
2010
2011
It's the strategy improved to help debtors' to manage their debts. This strategy is usually enforced by an outside company or organization for debtors. Because debtors are not capable of manage the debts by their own, due to lack of knowledge and to be full of business. To minimize the loss due to taking money from debtors is the main goal of debtor management.
8.1. Analysis for Arçelik A. Åž.
Arçelik, especially in the second and the third quarters led to a significant improvement in the performance and profit margin. The amount of net financial debt decreased by more than 60% thanks to generation of a positive cash flow during year. Merger between Arçelik and Grundig was completed in the middle of 2009, contributed the process management and profitability. Arçelik, which is one of the most profitable companies have continued to increase between competitors in 2009.Arçelik reduced its freedom from debts to 740 billion dollars due to successful working capital management in 2009.At the end of the first quarter 2011, net freedom from debts of the company in the current period reached 1 billion TL in order to having capital requirements. Last month, Finch increased the credit ratings of Arçelik A. Åž. from stable to positive. Thus, the company may borrow money at the lower interest rates. So the company's freedom from debts may decrease even more. (DPO 2009: 34.96, 2010: 64.90, 2011: 68.66). DPO rating is increasing per year; this can be said that Arçelik A. Åž. catches the ideal rate of DPO.
8.2. Analysis for Vestel
First of all, paying outstanding for Vestel A. Åž. is 367 days so at this situation it is more than 1 year. This naturally decreases Vestel's credit notes ; but after due to good policy making the credit note increased to B2 ( days of payable debts decreased from 367 to 321 ).Other hand. when it is compared with Arçelik, Vestel has bad credit rating, judged as being risky and great credit risk, so in the short-term debts are being more credit risk. Buy backing of its 225 m outstanding bonds. Vestel got a significant chance to refinance the risks and had a better position in 2011.Fitch also has affirmed the senior unsecured rating of Vestel Electronics Finance A. ÅŸ guaranteed issue of USD225m 8.75% 2012 maturity notes at 'B'/'RR4.Debt burden is increasing because of demand contraction in Europe. However premium at Euro eases the burden in 2011.Also, inventory turnover was increased by Vestel especially after crisis in 2008 so this is also another reason to ease the debt burden.
Cash management is an essential skill for small businesses because they typically have limited access for proper credit and have a significant amount of prepayment costs they need to manage while waiting for receivables. Good managing cash provides a company to meet unseen expenses in addition to handling regularly-occurring events like payroll.
One of The key ratio for measuring cash management is working capital productivity it s measures how the company will use the cash effective and productive ıt can be formulate as Total revenue/Net working capital. When its compared Arçelik and Vestel WCP, the results above are obtained:
2009 2010 2011(Arçelik) 2009 2010 2011(Vestel)
%19 %20 %23 %11 %14 %11
As we can see in the results Arçelik company is managing their cash management more productive than Vestel and it s bring us a valuable result when companies are getting specialized on working capital management they made a win-win circle (customer-investor-company future) furthermore using working capital productive rescue the company from expenses, idle money, unnecessary investments and when they are improving working capital(it s come from how the company using cash)the result bring to company high level position in market like Arçelik.
When Arçelik and Vestel are compared in terms of cash management, Arçelik is seen more advantageous than Vestel. Being of Arçelik is an older company than Vestel, provides to give more professional decisions; due to fluctuations in value of copper and Euro, Arçelik is affected less than Vestel. This is the evidence of how Arçelik uses working capital very well. The other point is that due to both companies are exporter, they have a direct effect on domestic market (balance of payment), using cash efficiently adds a plus the country economy. In the end, it is seen that Vestel is trying to increase its working capital, in case of this comes true they can go further. Research and development must be more cared of by Vestel.
Weighing the pros and cons, I come to the conclusion that in the whole project, working capital is the key element for companies economy and also important matter for whole economy in every country. Due to export when the country's export rate is bigger than Import rate, the trade balance is getting fixed and this is significantly important for whole economy. Although, in country it effects directly to the GDP, and by the reason of that GDP ratio is the key ratio for understanding economical situation for country, because when our GDP is in sustainable growth position we can understand that our economy is growing and our life of quality is increasing. In this case this two companies are making the positive effect for country economy with export facilities. In addition to this, two company has to know how to use their cash and they shouldn't waste money. For example, if we go back to the analysis, due to the WCP, Vestel has lack of information about how to use their cash more effective. On the one hand, Arçelik is using the money more efficient and it's bringing the leadership for Arçelik. On the other hand, Vestel should make rational choices, because when we are analyzing the ratios we are noticing that Vestel has got fluctuate situation due to their policies and Crisis. As I already indicated, they should focus on their policy and decisions first. Secondly the new market should be introduced to produce new goods (Undeveloped countries). Additionally, also we can mention that improve of efficiency level on operations is needed, because as we looked at the EBIT it was getting narrower day by day and it was also important reason to understand Vestel situation. 2008 crisis and EU zone crises effected the purchasing power that's why companies should make discounts and promotions (it's significant for using idle Inventory) for customers. The other problem worth to consider was that copper cost increased within 2008-2010, which also made the negative effect on the sector there. I should like to emphasise that for minimizing the risk level (coming from outside), companies are required to improve liquidity, because when it will happen companies will be needing a cash. If they cannot find enough assets, the companies will live the bankruptcy. Also, if the companies don't want to live this situation there are 4 steps for Vestel. First, increase the WCP, then enhances the investments, after increase the R&D facilities and finally the most import thing is to accrue the quality level of products (from customer comments) which makes the final decision for Vestel. So all in all I believe that from the Arçelik perspective they should keep the general level on company economy and for the sustainability should continue on Net Working Capital productivity.
Crisis period that started in 2008 - 2009, affected Europe and in the end of it. working capital management become more important lastly. Cash demand, occurred in crisis time, while some companies went bankrupt, the others operated effective working capital management and survives from suffer in crisis bad effects.
On behalf of two Turkish company Arçelik and Vestel has picked up for this case study, the attracting point is that turning out of vision statements. Arçelik stresses on sustainable growth insistently and we saw that it became real. As for Vestel, it wants to raise its profitability. The difference is, it shows that the robust strategies get companies to the solutions quickly, like Arçelik. The point we want to attract is, mission and vision has how much important role on company and give us general view because there lays fact of company strategy.
DIO, DSO, DPO and CCC analysis's says that Arçelik is more trust giving compared to Vestel. According to this result, Vestel should catch Arçelik in terms of financial statement. This process will provide country to have two strong companies compete each other to be the leader in the sector. In fact, this is very important issue that competition creates values and get this value, companies will spend more money on their research and developments to call upon the customer satisfactions.
In conclusion, the cash demand in crisis period and decreasing disposable income will continue to be as nightmare of businesses; but the companies which have strong working capital management and quick reacted to changes will stand after crisis. Thereafter, Vestel should use its cash management more efficiently to turn it as an opportunity in crisis time. As for Arçelik, by protecting its current state, it should increase its activities around the world.
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Knowledge of, and trading in Gold is essential to every serious market trader. Gold has a rich history dating back early civilization. As a precious metal, it has been considered a symbol of prosperity and success across many cultures. Throughout the world it has been used primarily as the accepted standard of monetary exchange, which was only abandoned with the establishment of government issued flat currency. Gold continues to remain an important asset, and in modern market terms as a safe haven used by many, in times of economic instability.
Gold is mainly traded against the USD. The beginning of the 21th century has witnessed one of the longest and most consistent rises in the gold rate ever recorded. From early market prices of US$ 265 per ounce at the beginning of 2001, to more than US$ 1700 within a decade. The percentage gain translates to a 641% rise, which is a dramatic shift in comparison to the 20-year long bear market that had existed previously.
The performance figures quoted refer to the past and past performance is not a guarantee of future performance or a reliable guide to future performance.
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Gold Trading Examples
Beyond definitions, it’s essential to see how Gold positions look in the actual market. The most straightforward way is by going through the calculations involved.
Let’s take a 10 ounce XAU/USD (“Mini-Lot” or 0.1 Lot) position bought at a market price of $1700 per/ounce. The USD value of the position will be: 10 ounces X $1700= $17,000. With a margin requirement of 0,5% (1:200 leverage) the result will be $850 required to open the position.
Now, let’s take a 100 ounce XAU/EURO (1.0 Standard Lot) position bought at a market price of €1320 per/ounce. The EURO value of the position is: 100 ounces X €1320= €132,000. With a margin requirement of 0,5% (1:200 leverage) the result will €660 required to open the position.
Gold CFD Rollover (Swaps)
In both commodities and foreign exchange markets a rollover/swap, is the interest that is added or deducted in order to secure an open position overnight. Rollover/swap rates are calculated as the overnight interest rate differential between the two currencies on which the position is held comes due, depending on the position type (Buy (Long) / Sell (Short).
Please Note: All rollover fees for all CFD’s including: ‘Gold’,'Crude-Oil’,'Silver’ & # 038; ‘Indices’ will be charged a 1% flat fee.
It is important to consider the following aspects of rollover/swap charges
Rollover/Swaps are charged on client’s Forex accounts only on the positions kept open into the next forex trading day
The rollover process begins at the end of the US market trading session.
The Gold rates below are calculated and based on USD accounts per 1 standard lot
The rollover/swaps are calculated and applied on every trading night. On Wednesday night rollover/swaps are charged at a triple rate(please read through explanation below)
Some additional information regarding Precious Metal Rollover/Swaps
At PriorFX rollovers are dealt with on a “spot” basis only. Meaning that all positions are settled two business days from inception, as per market rules. PriorFX will not facilitate actual physical delivery of either precious metals/currency. As a result, all positions that are open from 23:59:45GMT to 23:59:59GMT (Server time) are rolled over to a new value date. These trades are then charged or credited the relevant rollover as shown in the table above.
Very Important: When an open trade is rolled over from Wednesday to Thursday on trade, the new value date shifts to Monday of the next week. As a result, the rollover charge on Wednesday evenings will always be three times the value shown in the above table. In general it should be understood that in the case of factoring in weekends and holidays, the rollover/swap is multiplied by the number of days of the rollover.
The above illustrations are mere fictitious examples and are not to be construed in any way to constitute investment advice.
The performance figures quoted are only estimates and may not be reliable indicator of future performance of this investment and may not be a reliable indicator
This information does not constitute an offer or solicitation and is provided for information shall not be deemed to constitute advice and should not be relied on as such to enter into a transaction or for any investment decision. Any opinions expressed in this document represent the views of PriorFX at the time of preparation. They are thus subject to change without notice. PriorFX believes that the information contained herein is accurate as at the date of publication. However, no warranty of accuracy is given by PriorFX and no liability in respect of any errors or omissions, including any third party liability, are accepted by PriorFX or any director, officer or employee.
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PotenzaFX 26
Hi Andrea, Thanks for the Potenza FX. I think price and indicators look quiet good. Will buy the all package tonight when i get home. However i will be more interested to see a EA that trade the very same indicators. And i am almost certain that you can creat that kind of EA. Anyway for the time being i will be glad to have just the indicators. Until then i would like to thank you for all the hard work and that without forgeting Paolo A presto
Ciao Mointy, the EA will probably came in a few months. I already have it running under Multicharts and I’ll port to MT4 soon. Time for testing and run in on some demo/live account and it’ll be released. Usually the whole process takes some months as I wrote before. ¡Gracias a ti!
Thanks for these indicators. I think they have huge potential. My problem is when I restart metatrader I have to reload the template or change timeframes to get them to work. Any fix for this?
Yes PJ. We are aware that it can happen.
We are trying to fix it, but probably it depends on the fact that when the indicator load the MT4 is still not connected… maybe adding some delay in the start of the calculation… we’ll try and see if it fixes.
We’ll be releasing some updated versions soon with some bug fix and additional features.
I have the same problem also. Switching timeframes will fix the issue – but as I am running this particular MT4 platform on our home PC and not a VPS, I have to do this on all charts every time I start the MT4 platform. Any word on when a fix will be available?
Thanks for making these indicators available. They are extremely useful, and more then worth the price you are charging for them.
Do you have any plans to develop an EA to trade based on these indicators?
Thanks very much, Tim
Hi Tim, I’m afraid this is a MT4 limitation we cannot overcome. The indicators perform a lot of calculations on 28 pairs at the same time, and applying the “global” template first and/or switching timeframes is the only way to force MT4 perform all these calculations in the shortest time possible. Gracias por tus amables palabras. We have already developed automatic strategies based on these indicators. We backtest them on MultiCharts and JForex (MT4 does not allow multi-pair backtesting, again another limitation). Ciao, Paolo
Hi Andrea I’m using your indicators with success! When a crossover shows up, it would be nice if an alert would be displayed (sound or Email). Will be an alert implemented in a future version? Best Regards brUNO
Hi Bruno, I’m happy to read that you like it. I’m already working on an alert system, both visual and sound.
Ivey Business Journal
STRATEGIC ALLIANCES: THE RIGHT WAY TO COMPETE IN THE 21ST CENTURY
Regardless of the industry or type of business, strategic alliances are the best way for a company to compete and succeed in today’s networked economy. But building a strategic alliance and making it work are not easy. Partnering well is a key core competence, and it is one that needs to be developed.
The principles for developing that competence apply to any type of alliance. I will describe some of those principles in this article, as well as some of the risks that a company will face and the benefits it will derive from entering into a strategic alliance.
STRATEGIC ALLIANCES TODAY
Strategic alliances are critical to organizations for a number of key reasons:
1. Organic growth alone is insufficient for meeting most organizations’ required rate of growth.
2. Speed to market is of the essence, and partnerships greatly reduce speed to market.
3. Complexity is increasing, and no one organization has the required total expertise to best serve the customer.
4.Partnerships can defray rising research and development costs.
5. Alliances facilitate access to global markets.
In recent years, there has been an explosion of alliances around the world and across industries. Por ejemplo:
1. In an effort to establish itself as a force in European and Japanese markets, the Nasdaq formed a joint venture with SSI Technologies of India to develop an Internet-based trading and market system to launch Nasdaq Europe and Nasdaq Japan.
2. In February 2001, The Coca-Cola Company and Procter & Gamble announced a $4.2-billion (all currency in U. S. dollars) joint venture to use Coca-Cola’s huge distribution system to increase reach and reduce time to market for the P&G products Pringles and Sunny Delight.
3. EPOST was the world’s first national, secure electronic mail-delivery system, an alliance between Bank of Montreal and Canada Post Corp. This partnership connects billers and users in an efficient and secure environment.
4. Star Alliance is the largest partnership in the airline industry; its reach extends to 130 countries and more than 815 destinations, with collective revenue for the partnership at more than $63 billion.
5. Hewlett-Packard and NTT DoCoMo created a partnership to conduct joint research on technology for fourth-generation mobile phones, bringing together HP’s network infrastructure and computer servers with DoCoMo’s wireless broadband technology
HUGE OPPORTUNITY, HUGE RISK
Much has been written about the power of strategic alliances. However, a balanced perspective is critical. An article by Geoff Baum in the April 3, 2000, issue of Forbes ASAP gave a strong vote of confidence to alliances: “Our statistical analysis shows that companies with more joint ventures, marketing and manufacturing alliances, and other forms of partnerships, have substantially higher market values [than companies that do not form such partnerships].” The article concluded that, “In the connected economy, connections matter. Alliances are incredibly, even decisively, important.” Studies by others—including the Corporate Executive Board in Washington; Peter Drucker; Booz, Allen & Hamilton; and Andersen Consulting—also highlight similar opportunities and associated risks.
According to a 1999 survey on global alliances by Accenture Consulting:
Eighty-two percent of executives surveyed believe alliances will be a prime vehicle for future growth.
Alliances account for an average of 26 percent of Fortune 500 companies’ revenues, up from 11 percent five years ago.
Alliances account for six to 15 percent of the market value of the average company.
U. S. banks expect to hold a portfolio of more than 50 alliances within three years, accounting for as much as 50 percent of revenue.
Within five years, alliances are projected to account for 16 to 25 percent of the average company’s market value.
Senior management at 25 percent of firms surveyed expects alliances to contribute more than 40 percent of their company’s market value within five years.
It is clear that the importance of alliances is already being felt. Yet despite the opportunity, there are enormous risks:
As many as 70 percent of alliances fail.
Studies have found that although the 15 most successful alliances increased shareholder value by $72 billion, the 15 least successful alliances decreased market capitalization by $43 billion.
MITIGATING THE RISK OF FAILURE
Mitigating the risk of failure in any partnership is a critical requirement for success in a global economy. To ensure the greatest likelihood of success, organizations contemplating forming an alliance need to develop a disciplined, structured and systematic Strategic Alliance Process. The Strategic Alliance Process described in this article has been successfully applied to partnerships in Canada, the U. S. Europe, Asia and Mexico.
In our research, we consistently found that the major causes of alliance failure were a lack of strategic alignment and cultural incompatibility. We also found that using a process that addresses these issues greatly reduces the risk of failure.
THE STRATEGIC ALLIANCE PROCESS
The Strategic Alliance Process involves planning, implementation and evaluation. An alliance has a five-stage “life cycle,” and a structured methodology is applied to preparation and negotiations at each stage.
1. Setting alliance strategy
The first step in creating a successful alliance is to develop a well-thought-out alliance strategy. This is a critical step. We have found that too many organizations “find” a potential partner and then either develop their strategy or “fall into it.” It is worth remembering that if you do not follow your strategy in a partnership, you will follow someone else’s. The result will be catastrophic.
An alliance strategy stems from the business strategy. An alliance is not the answer for all businesses, but once a business does decide that a partnership is desirable, it must develop an alliance strategy. This is best accomplished through a structured, disciplined process in an Alliance Strategy Session.
An alliance strategy is most effectively developed jointly by the business team and an objective third party, whether the latter is an external consultant or part of the organization. The business team includes an executive sponsor, who is the head of that business, or, in a corporate alliance, the president and CEO. If senior executives do not support the initiative, the alliance will die. The team also includes key content experts and decision makers for that business.
An Alliance Strategy Session needs to address the vision and strategy for the partnership, and include a market analysis and a competitive assessment. Also required is an honest self-assessment that articulates the organizational strengths and weaknesses, as well as the organizational culture. The outcome of such a session includes an alliance game plan, partner selection criteria, a cultural self-assessment and a negotiating strategy.
2. Selecting a partner
This is based on the criteria identified in the strategy session. Once the partner is selected, the key is to determine if both organizations are strategically aligned and culturally compatible. A Joint Strategy Session where both (or multiple) organizations articulate their vision and strategy will determine if the organizations are strategically aligned. It will also become clear whether all parties have like ambitions and are culturally compatible. This also becomes the ideal opportunity to identify any strategic gaps and previously unanticipated opportunities. Any deal-breakers for either party are articulated at this stage.
Alliance governance is another aspect that is important to discuss at the very early stages. If it is a joint venture, thought needs to be given to the structures for management and the board.
Note that at this stage, due diligence has not yet occurred. The strategic alignment must first be ensured before due diligence is begun. At the outset, it is extremely important to determine if the partners are strategically aligned and culturally compatible. No positive results on due diligence or a “great” financial deal will overcome the lack of strategic alignment. Without this assurance, the alliance is guaranteed to fail.
3. Structuring the alliance
This is the step that has traditionally received the greatest amount of attention; it is during this stage that the deal is financially and legally structured, and negotiated. While important, the stage is not worth entering into unless the first two stages involving the strategy have been completed. It is important to keep an open mind regarding the structure of the deal until the alliance strategy has been developed. A joint venture is not always the best route, nor is majority ownership. Preconceived notions about the deal structure can bias the strategy, including conversations with the potential partner. Ideally, the strategy dictates the optimal structure.
Negotiation is also an aspect that requires significant attention. Some best-practice companies rehearse their negotiations before meeting the partner. It is critical to be clear about your deal-breakers, and the “floor” and “ceiling” of your negotiating points. A negotiating strategy is critical, and developing one must begin at the alliance-strategy stage. A key point to remember is that negotiations with a potential partner begin long before you first sit down at the table. It begins the first time you meet the partner. Every interaction reveals information that is consciously and subconsciously stored for future reference.
Every alliance agreement should include an exit strategy. This does not imply a pessimistic view of the relationship, but rather recognizes that all alliances have a natural life. The average lifespan of an alliance is seven years. It may be necessary to recognize that an alliance is impermanent in order to maximize its useful life.
Finally, at this point, a solid view of, and agreement on, alliance governance is important. This work is begun at the alliance strategy stage and needs to be negotiated before signing the definitive agreement.
4. Managing the alliance
Once the ink is dry, the hard work begins. Making the relationship work on an ongoing basis is a challenge. In a well-structured alliance, an implementation plan is developed before the deal is signed. A full launch strategy needs to have been jointly developed before the deal is announced. To hit the ground running, an implementation plan with specific action plans, and the resources assigned to the alliance, must be known. Ideally, some members of the alliance team would have been involved from the very first stage.
Conflict in any alliance is inevitable. It is not the fact that it occurs that is a problem, but rather how it is dealt with and resolved. A conflict-management process is an important element of alliance management.
This is another stage where the alliance can be derailed. As previously noted, the lack of strategic alignment is a key cause of failure. This is not only the case at the outset but throughout the life of the alliance. Periodic checks are critical. If a shift in a partner’s strategic direction is taking place, there is a risk that the alliance may no longer be a strategic priority. In the case where an alliance partner has sold its interest to another organization, it will be necessary to ensure that the new partner has the same strategic vision and interest in the alliance. Periodic strategy sessions become a valuable means of ensuring strategic alignment, as well as a vehicle for revisiting the strategy’s market relevance. As with conflict management, these sessions are best managed with the support of an objective third party.
5. Re-evaluating the alliance
Measuring the results of an alliance is critical. You must regularly determine if the alliance is achieving its objectives. The metrics need to be tailored to the alliance and include both qualitative and quantitative criteria. In the earlier stages, qualitative criteria, which are the hardest to measure, are most meaningful. Some examples are the level of trust, and the ability and willingness for cross-organizational co-operation and collaboration. These are all leading indicators of future performance. The qualitative metrics need to be clear and specific, in line with the way each organization sets its performance standards.
The discussion about performance standards must have taken place as early as stage one. The relationship will not succeed if both parties do not have the same expectations for success. If one party is expecting results within the first 12 months, and the other has a three-year horizon, conflict is inevitable. The key is to agree on standards and metrics jointly, before the final agreement has been signed.
In the re-evaluation stage, it is also necessary to take stock of the alliance and determine the next steps. As previously stated, alliances are impermanent; this should be taken into account when planning an alliance. This does not mean that the relationship should end when the alliance itself ends. In fact, towards the end of the life of the alliance it is worth revisiting the alliance strategy. Here, one wants to determine to what extent the original goals have been achieved, and whether the partnership can be reconfigured to serve other market needs. The goal is to make a decision as to whether the alliance should be terminated as the exit strategy has prescribed, or whether it still has life and new opportunities to partner.
Maintaining a good relationship will usually mean that there will be opportunities to continue to work together. It is much easier to manage multiple or reconfigured relationships with an existing and known partner than it is to manage multiple relationships with different partners. Therefore, where possible, deep relationships are always more desirable. For example, by reconfiguring and reinventing their relationship, Fuji and Xerox have remained partners for close to 40 years, well above the seven-year average.
It is absolutely necessary to evaluate and further develop the alliance at each stage of the life cycle. The strategy sessions create a structured, disciplined forum for recapturing “the lost art of conversation.” It is essentially through this conversation that gaps are identified and opportunities discovered. In our hurry to achieve, we at times forget to assess whether we are pursuing something that is worthwhile.
ALLIANCE PITFALLS
There are seven common pitfalls in the alliance cycle.
Stage 1: Too many organizations do not have an alliance strategy that addresses the gaps in their business strategy. Consequently, and unnecessarily, they underperform.
Stage 2: Many organizations do not develop an explicit joint strategy with their partners. Consequently, the organization with the strong direction leads the alliance, while the other partner does not realize the full benefit, or worse still, follows someone else’s strategy.
Stage 3: Too often, a disproportionate amount of attention is paid to the financial aspects of the deal, at the expense of—and sometimes neglect of—the strategy and the focus on implementation. Consequently, the ability to compete successfully is compromised.
Stage 4: Lack of ongoing commitment to the alliance by either party will derail it. Examples include not putting the best people in the partnership or pulling key resources from the alliance.
Stage 5: Lack of realistic or meaningful metrics is a common pitfall. In an attempt to quantify all results from the outset, employing meaningful qualitative metrics is often overlooked. Some of the most meaningful metrics which are predictors of success include things such as the level of trust between the parties.
Stage 6: Another common pitfall for large organizations is losing track of multiple relationships with a partner. This occurs when various alliances with this partner exist in different parts of the organization. At times, a partner is also a supplier, and this complicates the relationship. Having a good handle on the extent of the relationship is critical.
Stage 7: Finally, partnering with competitors requires particular attention. One of the common pitfalls occurs when insufficient boundaries are set around an alliance with a competitor. The risk is that their newly acquired knowledge of your organization makes them a more formidable competitor.
Organizations will increasingly need to partner or risk perishing. In the global economy, all boundaries are artificial and limitations self-imposed. Yet partnering carries with it huge risks.
These risks can be mitigated by creating an organizational competence in strategic alliances. To make alliances work, organizations must develop a systematic, structured and disciplined process that involves planning, implementation and evaluation. No hay atajos. It is both an art and a science. And one thing is clear: In order to succeed, there must be a solid alliance strategy in place. And throughout, there must be a keen awareness of the reasons for having undertaken the alliance in the first place.
Sobre el Autor
Greatest Philosopher of the Twentieth Century
by Harry on March 1, 2009
I imagine that everyone in Philosophy is discussing the NYT review which asserted, without qualification, that Wittgenstein was the greatest philosopher of the 20th century. Leiter proposes to settle the issue once and for all with an internet blog poll. Go and vote. (I haven’t voted because I don’t know the answer. Carnap? Sellars? Moore? Merleau-Ponty? or, perhaps, John-Paul Sartre ….
Compartir este:
zach 03.02.09 at 12:00 am
heidegger was the last philosopher
dm 03.02.09 at 12:03 am
None of the above, its Douglas Adams by acclamation.
Martin Heidegger would be my pick, too.
Of course, I kind of wonder what ‘greatness’ consists of. Originality? Influence? Thoroughness? Clarity? I kind of suspect it’s just a question of style, but what constituents of greatness one chooses probably ordains one’s choice.
How about Sigmund Freud?
The problem is that there are a whole lot of Wittgensteins. Not only early and late, but also this interpreter’s version as opposed to that one’s. (I voted for mine.)
I won’t disclose who the current leader is, at 19%. Bright guy but not my cup of tea, philosophically speaking. No love for Gadamer yet, which is a bit suprising.
chris 03.02.09 at 12:15 am
Whitehead, obviously. Actaully, I’m thrilled Leiter even thought of him.
Holt’s judgement is somewhat balanced in the article by that of his subject.
My only serious complaint about the book concerns Waugh’s glancing treatment of Ludwig Wittgenstein’s philosophical work. He dismisses it as “incomprehensible” and attributes Wittgenstein’s influence to his “striking looks, manner and extraordinarily persuasive personality.”
Leiter omits William James, presumably on the grounds that he more properly belongs in the 19C, but surely his most interesting work was after 1900. Absent James, I guess LW is as good a choice as any, on the grounds of pervasive influence, if nothing else.
Brian 03.02.09 at 12:19 am
Harry, you’ve just destroyed the scientific validity of the results with this link! Now we’ll never know…
yoyo 03.02.09 at 12:36 am
Sacre Bleu! It’s Jean-Paul Sartre, not John-Paul Sartre!
DaveMB 03.02.09 at 12:38 am
Russell and Whitehead and Hegel and Kant Maybe I shall and maybe I shan’t Maybe I shan’t and maybe I shall Kant, Russell, Whitehead, Hegel et al.
from The Space Child’s Mother Goose
onymous 03.02.09 at 12:41 am
This non-philosopher is baffled: who is David K. Lewis (OK, Wikipedia gives me a clue), and why does he get so many votes relative to so many people I’ve heard of?
Matt 03.02.09 at 12:45 am
Of course I don’t think Leiter means this to be anything more than a mild amusement, and even that only ironically, I’d guess. But more seriously, I suspect we’ve not had enough time to consider many of these people’s achievements (or lack there of.) Two thoughts come to mind - one from Thomas Nagel somewhere noting how no one would have thought, even in the very early days of the 20th century, let alone the end of the 19th, that Frege and Pierce would be thought to be two of the more important philosophers to have mostly worked in the 19th century. And, someone making a joke somewhere (I wish I remembered who it was) about how some day a 23rd (or so) century equivalent of Quentin Skinner would write about how of course everyone knew that Brian Barry was the dominant and most important political philosopher of the 20th century, but if you really wanted to understand what he was on about, you had to read this other, much more obscure philosopher working at the same time, John Rawls…. This _sort_ of thing, that seems plausible enough to me, makes me hesitate strongly before having any opinion. (Not that I think it much matters, of course - it’s just fun.)
dsquared 03.02.09 at 12:45 am
Slightly surprised at so little love for Karl Popper, who was the only serious competitor to Wittgenstein while both were alive.
larry c wilson 03.02.09 at 12:49 am
MH 03.02.09 at 2:02 am
I voted for Bertrand Russell because he was the only one I’d read who didn’t annoy me in some way or another.
Greatness is so multidimensional. Lewis for flair and sheer chutzpah, Davidson for the shock and awe value of being completely incapable of understanding anything he says, Russell for, you know, starting the whole 20th century philosophy thing. So I voted for Rawls. Because, well. Rawls.
Matt 03.02.09 at 2:58 am
On Popper, I assume he’s not getting much support because most of his major positions are now held by very few philosophers - the belief that there’s a clear answer to the demarcation problem and that the falsifiability test provides it, Platonism and the “third realm” idea, and a fairly goofy form of dualism where the immaterial mind can effect matter if matter is _really, really, small_. Now, maybe Popper will win out in the end and people will come back around to these positions or something like them, but most all of them are highly out of favor at this time.
jim 03.02.09 at 3:25 am
I was torn between Tarski and Whitehead, but in the end decided the Banach-Tarski paradox weighed heavier. I at least pushed Tarski into double digits.
harry b 03.02.09 at 3:45 am
MH — read his autobiography.
yoyo, you have to click the link and listen for a while to have an inkling of why I misspelled “Jean”
Brian — I’m actually feeling pretty guilty, and am sorry, It did occur to me, but you didn’t request no links, so I went ahead. I really wish I’d waited 48 hours and given you fair warning of the link. Lo siento.
So exactly how did Leiter come to have this “gatekeeper” function in the field? He strikes me as being to analytic philosophy what non-scientist “science advocates” are — all the attitude and then some (particularly against “continental philosopy,” his supposed discipline), but none of the rigor. He establishes that he’s an “analytic philosopher” by expressing dismay at how many votes Heidegger’s getting and leaving Derrida off entirely, whereas actual analytic philosophers establish that they are such by going to the trouble of solving philosophical problems that, while arguably a bit narrow from certain perspectives, are actually difficult.
lisa 03.02.09 at 4:10 am
I know some people that are going to be hopping mad that Frege didn’t make the list. This is going to be like that list of the 100 greatest novels that probably just showed that a list of the 100 greatest novels will be wrong in at least 99 different ways.
The correct answer is Heidegger, of course. But I fault the test on two grounds: one, any poll on this subject matter that doesn’t attract even one vote for Gadamer plainly isn’t reaching enough people who actually know what they’re talking about, and two, any poll on this subject matter that doesn’t even list Charles Taylor as a choice has to be treated as completely blinkered from the start.
John Quiggin 03.02.09 at 4:18 am
Presumably, Wittgenstein is benefitting substantially from a framing effect here.
MH 03.02.09 at 4:27 am
Given that Russell’s autobiography would take a while to read, I read his Wikipedia page instead. Based on that, I’m sure you are correct.
Also, the voting is closed.
Matt 03.02.09 at 4:39 am
Lisa - the majority of Frege’s most important work was done in the 19th Century. A few important papers come out in the tens or early teens, but by far his most important contributions were before 1900, making it more plausible to think of him as a 19th century philosopher.
How can it be a serious poll if it doesn’t have Ayn Rand?
dsquared 03.02.09 at 8:02 am
So exactly how did Leiter come to have this “gatekeeper” function in the field?
I once ate a meal cooked by a noted author of restaurant guides; it wasn’t much good.
JoB 03.02.09 at 8:28 am
Donald Davidson, Donald Davidson, Donald Davidson …
Because he’s the only one that attempted to bring together the thought of all of the others on a list like this.
Then again, maybe he really is more of a 21st century philosopher who happened to publish a century too early.
I also started out hating him because I didn’t understand any of it but with some dedication it’s pretty much logic (which is quite the reverse of Heidegger in all possible aspects).
Phil 03.02.09 at 8:40 am
Why so many votes for Russell? Who the hell is David K. Lewis? And where, O where, is Husserl? (If I had two votes Wittgenstein would get #2, I have to admit.)
David Wright 03.02.09 at 9:24 am
Good to see so many votes for Russell!
Wittgenstein had some great insights, but when faced with an enigma he would tend to sit back and revel in it, whereas Russel always had the good sense to roll up his slevees and get to work analyzing it with the most precision and clarity he could muster.
While his primary contributions are obviously to epistimology, he did good work in the philosophy of languge, ethics, and political philosophy; that’s a breadth of serious work with which few others can compare.
And in terms of sheer influence he’s hard to compete with; limiting ourselves to names on the ballot, I count: Carnap, Kripke, Lewis, Popper, Putnam, Quine, Searle, Tarski, Whitehead, and, of course, Wittgenstein.
Neil 03.02.09 at 10:13 am
dsquared, Adam, you don’t need to like Leiter or the function he has appointed himself to, but there is no doubt at all that he is a competent philosopher.
If figures as minor as Rorty, Dummett, C. I.Lewis, Dewey, Cassirer, and Deleuze get included, then why not Ryle or Austin?
But CB: «Un jour, peut-être, le siècle sera deleuzien!»
Scott Martens 03.02.09 at 11:53 am
George Carlin. Período. No one else comes close, although honorable mention goes to Douglas Adams.
#39, Peut-être, mais le lendemain, il ne le sera plus.
jholbo 03.02.09 at 12:25 pm
Tom Hurka 03.02.09 at 12:47 pm
Re Wittgenstein (a horrible influence on philosophy, in my opinion):
At the Edinburgh Festival in 1977 I saw a wonderful play called ‘Ludwig and Bertie.’ It was about Wittenstein and Russell … and Bertie Wooster. You see, Russell and Wittgenstein have agreed to meet, for the first time, in the Trinity College, Cambridge library, which happens to be where Bertie Wooster is going to meet this new man he’s hired, called Jeeves. (He’s going to the library to find an ethics book and read about this ‘categorical aperitif.’) Well, various misidentifications follow, with Russell thinking Bertie is Wittgenstein (and utterly unsuited to philosophy) while Wittgensein thinks Bertie is Russell (and the stupidest man he’s ever met). It all reaches its climax when Russell encounters Jeeves, who’s of course been the Wittgenstein family butler in Vienna and taught Ludwig everything he knows. How, Russell asks him, can the sentence ‘The present king of France is bald’ be meaningful if there’s no present king of France? ‘May I venture to suggest, sir,’ Jeeves replies, ‘that we can analyze this sentence as saying that there is one and only one x such that x is the present king of France and x is bald?’ ¡Fantástico!
My (or a) nominee: W. D. Ross, the greatest historian of philosophy of the 20th century and, at the same time, author of one of the century’s best, if not the single best, books of moral philosophy. With none of grandiose obscurity of many of the other leading names (including Rawls) on Leiter’s list.
CK Dexter 03.02.09 at 12:54 pm
Wittgenstein, Lewis, and Russell? ¿Seriamente?
This list shows we clearly need a Most Overrated Philosophers of the 20th Century Poll. I think the results should be the same. Wittgenstein, though, by a landslide. Tractatus is very good, but Philosophical Investigation is a sloppy amalgamation of superb examples unanalyzed–unanalyzed, because there’s no longer a philosopher in the vicinity to do the work.
Possible-worlds-are-real-Lewis? How does any one take this guy seriously? It’d be like including Plantinga.
dsquared 03.02.09 at 12:59 pm
I love the way that all the people who don’t like Wittgenstein seem to basically end up arguing against him by pointing and saying “See! This man isn’t doing philosophy properly!”
CK Dexter 03.02.09 at 1:11 pm
“See! This man isn’t doing philosophy properly!”
It’s not a matter of “properly” but “at all.” It’s why the Buddha and Jesus and Ayn Rand ain’t philosophers, either. Shewing the fly that there’s a bottle isn’t shewing its way out of crap.
Re: 26: “He establishes that he’s an “analytic philosopher” by expressing dismay at how many votes Heidegger’s getting “
Where did he say this? I didn’t see a comments section. I’m dismayed by how low Heidegger’s results are.
JoB 03.02.09 at 1:23 pm
And obviously it will lead to this: a discussion that the one type of philosophy is better than the other – which is why Davidson is the greatest because he stands in the line from Frege to Quine, AND he managed to say something sensible about people like Gadamer.
(the dividing line will bring all of the usual early against late Wittgenstein discussion up here as well: see 44, there is merit in pointing out the need for analysis, and this merit does not need to include a successful analysis – there may be even value in pointing out what can’t be analyzed & why it so resists analysis without going to abyss of philosophy-as-a-minor-branch-of-poetry)
matt mckeon 03.02.09 at 1:38 pm
Can no one link to the drunken philosopher’s song from Monty Python? O the humanity!
CK Dexter 03.02.09 at 1:42 pm
“see 44, there is merit in pointing out the need for analysis, and this merit does not need to include a successful analysis – there may be even value in pointing out what can’t be analyzed & why it so resists analysis without going to abyss of philosophy-as-a-minor-branch-of-poetry”
Very true, but I still maintain Wittgenstein fails to do anything with his examples: he doesn’t point out what can’t be analyzed or why it resists analysis. The continental tradition is full of thinkers who do the latter, and do it much, much better, than Wittgenstein does.
As for the abyss: I happen to like Tractatus because it is both a beautiful piece of poetry and a brilliant, though failed, work of true philosophy.
engels 03.02.09 at 1:52 pm
One of the clearest testaments to Wittgenstein’s greatness is surely the obsessiveness of his detractors.
#50, oh if that were a test of greatness, there’s be an awful lot of great philosophers ….
JoB 03.02.09 at 2:00 pm
CKD – I won’t convince you if he can’t convince you but it’s difficult to ignore the fact that there are quite a number of examples that were at least enough to inspire others*. More: if you do like philosophy sounding like poetry surely you have to be endebted to the great Witt for giving you Ordinary Language Philosophy!
* that would be, like, 95% of everybody else (not death before the Tractatus) on the initial list
CK Dexter 03.02.09 at 2:02 pm
“One of the clearest testaments to Wittgenstein’s greatness is surely the obsessiveness of his detractors.”
A better route might be for those who agree with the assessment tosay something specific about why they think he’s a particularly great philosophy. And posting his glamor shots or telling cute stories about his life doesn’t count.
JoB made a thoughtful contribution on this score, even if I disagreed.
But perhaps a clear testiment to a Wittgenstein fan is a tendency for high-minded Silent-Remaining. At least on matters of why.
dsquared 03.02.09 at 2:07 pm
I really find myself wanting to reformat #53 as a series of numbered aphorisms:
114:A better route might be for those who agree with the assessment to say something specific about why they think he’s a particularly great philosophy.
115. And posting his glamor shots or telling cute stories about his life doesn’t count. (JoB made a thoughtful contribution on this score, even if I disagreed).
116. But perhaps a clear testiment to a Wittgenstein fan is a tendency for high-minded Silent-Remaining. At least on matters of why .
Tom Hurka 03.02.09 at 2:16 pm
Well, Wittgenstein’s central example of a concept that can’t be analyzed is that of a game. But he didn’t exactly try hard, did he? A brilliant analysis of the concept of a game, as ‘the voluntary attempt to overcome unnecessary obstacles’ is in Bernard Suits’s book The Grasshopper: Games, Life, and Utopia. It kicks Wittgenstein’s ass.
ejh 03.02.09 at 2:29 pm
#55: you forgot to declare your interest….
dsquared 03.02.09 at 2:32 pm
117. An imagined conversation: “Using a blog comment thread to promote a book that you wrote the introduction for without mentioning the fact? What’s your game, laddie?”
118. But this is not what we would normally call a game. ¿O es eso?
119. Trolling philosophers by accusing them of shilling their books – a fine afternoon’s amusement! But what is the unnecessary obstacle to be overcome? Perhaps this is not so simple after all.
dsquared 03.02.09 at 2:34 pm
And also, I am nobody’s idea of a Wittgenstein expert, but if you think that the point of the games example was that “game” is an unanalyzable concept, you’re pretty badly traducing him.
Antti Nannimus 03.02.09 at 2:35 pm
According to the poll, Ludwig Wittgenstein is the greatest 20th century philosopher. –But is this true? What is the meaning of “greatness”? In fact, what is the meaning of “meaning”?
Pogo: “It was a finger-of-speech–I apologize.”
How can it be a serious poll if it doesn’t have Pogo? It seems this notion that Wittgenstein is the greatest 20th century philosopher has been a presumption.
Have a nice day! Antti
CK Dexter 03.02.09 at 2:46 pm
“I really find myself wanting to reformat #53 as a series of numbered aphorisms:”
dsquared, the correct format is: 114, 114.1, 114.2…
& # 8221; game, as ‘the voluntary attempt to overcome unnecessary obstacles’ “
That’s the best definition of a game I’ve ever heard. Case in point: poetry _and_ philosophy. Exhibit B: Pogo. Though my vote’s for Harpo: that’s philosophically remaining silent.
Re: 52 “it’s difficult to ignore the fact that there are quite a number of examples that were at least enough to inspire others”
I wonder if this is true? Is Wittgenstein’s popularity principally among those who’ve read him, or rather those who’ve read his bio or heard him referenced on The Simpsons? Maybe he’s the P. B. Shelley of 20th century philosophy. Or maybe he’s so inspirational because he leaves us to do all of the work for him? ( I should clarify that I do think he’s a “great” philosopher, which doesn’t disqualify him for “most overrated.”)
“if you do like philosophy sounding like poetry surely you have to be endebted to the great Witt for giving you Ordinary Language Philosophy!”
Oh god, no. Good poetry only — most poetic philosophy is rubbish. Plato was the only consistently good philosophical poet. Maybe Freud is a candidate for second place.
novakant 03.02.09 at 2:47 pm
Yeah, the Dark Knight is the greatest movie evaa, like, totally, 1 BILLION BUCKS, so there, and if you like Slumdog you’re like totally GAY or something and the Oscars suck bigtime coz DK wuz ROBBED!
JoB 03.02.09 at 2:51 pm
JoB made a thoughtful contribution on this score, even if I disagreed.
But you didn’t (disagree), now did you? Unless tacit disagreement counts as disagreement, or the mention of disagreement suffices to count as disagreement — neither option seems to be a very attractive one ;-)
PS: my man is Davidson, Donald Davidson to be precise!
PPS: I think he (the great not-so-witty Witt) did a good job of analyzing ‘games’ & # 8211; a tremendous job in fact and it was clearly stated as well – maybe even a poetic classic on the words necessary & suficiente
belle le triste 03.02.09 at 2:53 pm
I like the ideas of the philosophers LW proved were unnecessary proving they are in fact indispensible by demanding to have his work explained to them, bcz they don’t get it.
What a strange list. No surprise that Wittgenstein and Russell get the highest scores, but…no Marxists? At all? And why such a high score for Heidegger when Husserl isn’t even mentioned? You might like or hate either of those philosophers but the simple fact is: no Husserl … no Heidegger.
Likewise to reiterate Chris Bertram’s point, why Wittgenstein and no Ryle or Austin?
I might also be politically correct and note that it is simply taken for granted that ‘philosopher’ is automatically assumed to mean ‘male philosopher who wrote in English, German or French’.
JoB 03.02.09 at 2:55 pm
CKD – cross-post, sorry. More on 60 later. Call it 60.1 for all I care ;-) Now I know that you are in the ‘philosophy can never be science’-camp so the add-on question would be: “why bother in these slumberings” or in the words of Ricky Gervais: “Are you having a laugh?”.
ejh 03.02.09 at 2:59 pm
That’s the best definition of a game I’ve ever heard.
It’s not that great as a definition. It’s a very good description of a central aspect of game-playing, but it doesn’t really define . does it?
CK Dexter 03.02.09 at 3:06 pm
“But you didn’t (disagree), now did you? Unless tacit disagreement counts as disagreement”
I took this to be the substantial statement of disagreement: “Wittgenstein fails to do anything with his examples: he doesn’t point out what can’t be analyzed or why it resists analysis.” Much of Wittgenstein consists of presenting the example, in “So there!” or “take that!” fashion (cf. belle la triste’s question-begging argument). But he often doesn’t seem to do more than that. (Often, of course, not always — I think the discussions of language games and family resemblances are great, e. g.)
“‘Now I know that you are in the ‘philosophy can never be science’-camp”
I don’t think I am, though I am in the philosophy (and science!) aren’t incompatible with poetry camp, and are often compatible with bad poetry camp. I’m not having a laugh, I seriously think there are philosophers who did what Witt is trying to do better than he did.
belle le triste 03.02.09 at 3:17 pm
taking sides: question-begging versus rent-seeking
Matt 03.02.09 at 3:19 pm
_but…no Marxists? At all?_
Adorno was a sort of Marxist, was he not? A particular sort, of course, but, not being hugely well read in his work, I would have certainly thought of him as a _sort_ of Marxist.
Hidari - I’d agree that Ryle and Austin are as plausible as some of those on the list, but I’d not think they are as plausible as Wittgenstein. Whatever his merits or lack there of, he’d be someone you _might_ think to include, while that seems pretty unlikely for Ryle or Austin (though I’m fond of both of them.) It’s a bit like arguing that Reggie Miller was the greatest basketball player, or Mike Mussina the greatest pitcher of the last 50 years.
#69 There’s quite a few sort-of Marxists for a bit in there: Adorno, Sartre, Foucault, Putnam.
ScentOfViolets 03.02.09 at 3:36 pm
I don’t read philosophy at all except in snippets, maybe a book here or there: why is Wittgenstein considered to be so good? The one philosopher I consistently read – at least the popular stuff – is Daniel Dennett. He seems to be much more substantive than Wittgenstein. Oh, and I’ve read a bit of Popper too (introduced via Martin Gardner), though people tell me that a lot of what is attributed to Popper isn’t really his, but rather extensions by his students. What makes him the lesser figure in comparison to Wittgenstein? Are we talking about influence just on other philosophers, or influence outside the field? Etc.
JoB 03.02.09 at 4:02 pm
Hidari-64, why not Grice? Because they are not on the A-list. Por qué no? Ask Mickey Rourke.
ejh-66 – there are many games that are non-voluntary and that require you to overcome some very necessary obstacles
Phil 03.02.09 at 4:04 pm
Dennett describes himself (at the back of Consciousness explained ) as a Wittgensteinian, or as someone who wanted to move on from being a Wittgensteinian. So there’s one answer: no Wittgenstein, no Dennett.
And no Dewey (on the list)! Fearsomely unfashionable these days, but still – no Dewey, no Rorty. (And no Rorty, no bad thing, but since he is on the list…)
JoB 03.02.09 at 4:12 pm
¡Paz! (I think you missed my apology for cross-posting)
I think we pretty much agree on everything but employ different yardsticks. By my measure it is incredible to have 2 really good discussions (Davidson only barely mustered 3, and he is my favourite!). Obviously many have done it better, many have lived after him to profit from what he did and what Carnap did and what Quine did and what … that’s the way of philosophy: it’s not fair for those not coming last ;-)
(all my thanks goes to Carnap for this very beautiful point)
Ah yes, your parallel to The Simpsons is not on: the references I count are not by you and me – but by the ‘A-list’ of philosophers presented in the original topic.
grackle 03.02.09 at 4:31 pm
It seems to me that Leiter has missed a bet in limiting it to only the greatest philosopher. There should be many more categories. A few of the possibilities -
Most engaging, on first reading – Heidegger
Most ridiculous – Heidegger on Art (shorter Heidigger on art, “ I don’t know anything about art but I know what I like.)
Most engrossing, without further thought – Foucault
Most ridiculous misapplication of philosophy – Derrida
Most apt to be found in a dark room and to confuse it with being in the sun – Sartre
Most stultifying texts – the competition here is ever so great
The possibilities here are almost limitless.
Greatest philosopher of the 20th century – Gurdjieff, “I teach that when it rains, the pavement gets wet.”
JoB (#34) likes Davidson “[b]ecause he’s the only one that attempted to bring together the thought of all of the others on a list like this” – or, that is, that “he stands in the line from Frege to Quine, AND he managed to say something sensible about people like Gadamer”.
Davidson would have been my #2 choice, and this is indeed a good reason why. But it’s an even better reason for my #1 choice. On my reading (note my caveat at #4), Wittgenstein incorporates Davidson (et al) even better than Davidson incorporates Wittgenstein (and perhaps we can forgive him for not mentioning the man by name).
What I mean by that is this, and this will have to serve for those demanding an explanation from fans. Put the later Wittgenstein to one side for now. Follow the line of thought from Frege to Quine (which of course has some later W. in it already). Davidson’s extension of Quinean thought cuts to the heart of the empiricist project. Once we see the scheme/content dualism as yet another version of what Quine has rightly rejected, and see how Davidson’s picture works (esp. the later Davidson, from the late 80’s through the 90’s), then you find yourself asking ever thornier questions about how philosophy works once we learn – or in order to learn – how finally to leave Cartesianism and platonism behind. (Of course not everyone wants to do that.)
And here’s where Wittgenstein will turn out to have been three steps ahead of you the whole time. People (here as elsewhere) knock Wittgenstein for pointing at things and asking questions rather than giving rigo(u)rous arguments for the truth of P (or even, bizarrely, trying and failing). This is indeed a risky procedure. If you don’t see what he’s doing, then it will look pointless and weird. But I have found time after time that what looks like an offhand remark in the Investigations makes just the connection that helps one to, well, find one’s way around.
But as they say, your mileage may vary. If you aren’t convinced, I can only point you to Subjective, Intersubjective, Objective and Truth, Language, and History . (Both are essential, but those new to Davidson will have to start with Inquiries into Truth and Interpretation to see how the later picture grows out of the earlier – though Davidson himself thought he was saying the same thing throughout).
#70: Adorno…apologies I didn’t see him. The others, I think, are not primarily thought of as Marxists.
However I think my other point is much more important…perhaps i’m deluding myself with ideas of ‘progress’ (must be the Hegelian in me….) but I like to think that the equivalent list of 21st century philosophers compiled in the early 22nd, would have its fair share of Chinese, Indian, African, South American and Russian philosophers…or maybe even (gasp) a woman.
It is kind of grim that someone can vote in this poll without even knowing who David Lewis is (#35). Brian oughta have included a pop quiz before you get to answer the poll.
CK Dexter 03.02.09 at 5:29 pm
“Peace! (I think you missed my apology for cross-posting)”
Yes, I did, and peace, likewise.
“By my measure it is incredible to have 2 really good discussions”
That’s sensible, and raises an interesting question about greatness measuring. How do we compare philosophers with one or two superb ideas to philosophers with many great or many, many good ideas? In my choices, I’d probably look for someone with at least one truly groundbreaking contribution, and consistent steady good ideas over a long period of time. A similar question could be raised about importance in terms of influence. Are the most influential the most deservingly influential? Is their influence a beneficial one? Y así.
#76: “If you don’t see what he’s doing, then it will look pointless and weird. But I have found time after time that what looks like an offhand remark in the Investigations makes just the connection that helps one to, well, find one’s way around.”
Agreed on the absence of “offhand” remarks. In individual sections I think his presentation is very thoughtful, very conscientious, very intentional. But I must still insist that it’s possible to understand what he’s trying to do, to not find it pointless and weird and, yet, still, conceivably (though it stretches the imagination to the breaking point), believe he’s failed or done a less than effective job of “shew”-ing what he thinks he’s shewing.
Yes, the point is to show, not tell. But one can do so unsuccessfully. I suppose his reputation might be seen as evidence of success, but it may also be an example of how saying less allows the reader to see what they want to see.
44: “ Philosophical Investigations is a sloppy amalgamation of superb examples unanalyzed—unanalyzed, because there’s no longer a philosopher in the vicinity to do the work.”
What counts as analysis?
55: “But he didn’t exactly try hard, did he? A brilliant analysis of the concept of a game, as ‘the voluntary attempt to overcome unnecessary obstacles’ is in Bernard Suits’s book The Grasshopper: Games, Life, and Utopia. It kicks Wittgenstein’s ass.”
An important sense of ‘greatest’ is ‘most influential.’ Wittgenstein has a claim to that title in the 20th-Century. The logical positivists (Carnap, in particular) are heavily indebted to the Tractatus and to Wittgenstein’s work in the early 30s. Indeed, the characteristic features of logical positivism are simply taken over from Wittgenstein. And no one exerted a greater influence on so-called ‘ordinary language philosophy’ than Wittgenstein.
Ken C. 03.02.09 at 5:55 pm
It’s indisputable that Robert Frost was the Greatest Poet of the twentieth century, while John Philip Sousa was the Greatest Composer of military marches. Any fool could see that Steven Purugganan is the Greatest Sport Stacker born in the twentieth century. However, I think it’s a matter of legitimate debate whether Leon Norman Williams or Richard McP. Cabeen can claim the crown of Greatest Philatelist of the twentieth century. Only time can tell.
Isn’t it interesting that we all get terribly het up about ‘who was the greatest philosopher’ and yet no one gives a toss about ‘who was the greatest dentist’ or ‘who was the greatest welder’ of any century? And yet welders and dentists (especially the latter) have a much more concrete impact on our lives than philosophy.
Perhaps a better list might be the greatest ‘welders who were also philosophers’ of the 20th century or ‘dentists who also happened to be conceptual sound poets’.
In the latter, my vote goes for Bill the dentist*. He’s great.
*Also known as Bill the conceptual sound poet (and dentist).
Phil 03.02.09 at 6:01 pm
#85 – you’ll be happy to hear that this ignoramus didn’t in fact cast a vote. (Never heard of C. I. Lewis either. I’m not yet persuaded that I’ve been missing much.)
I see Leiter explains his exclusion of Husserl (rather unpersuasively) and actually does include Dewey; there go both my objections so far. So I’ll add that excluding Searle is odd, excluding Bhaskar is unfortunate, excluding Lyotard and Baudrillard is understandable but wrong, and excluding Derrida is ridiculous.
I don’t see what’s so wrong about an educated public consisting of philosophers and non-philosophers voting in such a thing. Let’s say that there was a vote to see who the greatest Christian theologian of all time was. I assume that a generally educated public would come out strongly in favor of Augustine and Luther. A group of theologians would probably be in the same ballpark. It’s different in the 20th century because fewer people, even educated people, have heard of many of the candidates — but the same holds for philosophy. I wouldn’t really object to people voting for Hans Kung or Rowan Williams by default. They’re not my favorites, but presumably there’s a reason they are better-known than my favorites, such as being a major protest figure in the RCC or being Archbishop of Canterbury.
Similarly, Freud, Dewey, or Sartre are probably better known than David Lewis — presumably because they’ve all had impact in fields other than philosophy and also actually “done stuff” (founded a whole new discipline, worked in educational reform, and been a polymath/activist). Same with Foucault, arguably, and Foucault’s the one you see in the bookstores. It seems perverse that such things are regarded as extrinsic or even as prima facie evidence against someone’s greatness as a philosopher. (I would argue that this is more prevelant in the analytic camp than in the continental camp — but Heidegger’s “life achievements” outside of philosophy are actually negative overall, and he’s still “the greatest.”)
“Yes, the point is to show, not tell. But one can do so unsuccessfully.”
Por supuesto. I doubt we agree on what W was trying to show though. As you say,
“[W’s reputation] may also be an example of how saying less allows the reader to see what they want to see.”
It is indeed explicitly designed to allow the reader to look for him/herself. And I’ve already copped to looking for something in particular. Having found it (and seeing why, as W. explains in the preface, it would be much harder to show in other ways), I have no complaints about this procedure (do we condemn the hardware store for merely having the right tool in stock instead of fixing my car itself?). Of course I have Davidson (and McDowell and Cavell, also missing from the list) to help me connect the dots. This does mean, I agree, that W isn’t for everyone, and so maybe not deserving of victory here given the state of contemporary philosophy. And I think he of all people was insistent on that.
CK Dexter 03.02.09 at 6:46 pm
“Of course. I doubt we agree on what W was trying to show though.”
True enough, and I think that would be a fine basis for a case that the doubters don’t “get” Wittgenstein. But I still object to those who suggest that to disagree that Wittgenstein succeeded proves one has failed to understand him.
“This does mean, I agree, that W isn’t for everyone, and so maybe not deserving of victory here given the state of contemporary philosophy. And I think he of all people was insistent on that.”
A good point, taken. If I am right to understand Wittgenstein’s view of philosophy as, in some sense, the bottle he’s trying to guide us out of, the “greatest philosopher” designation amounts to something like: the most insightful bottle-dweller?
Harry 03.02.09 at 6:52 pm
Paul Gowder — to be fair, if I hadn’t jumped the gun, no-one would have voted who doesn’t know who David Lewis is.
Lewis was brilliant. But I suspect that his good showing is better explained by sociologists of the profession than by members of the profession itself. (In general the recently dead have an advantage over the long dead). What is striking to me about the list is that no-one on it can compete with the greatest philosophers of the 19th century, the 18th century, or the 17th century, and that despite the fact that enormously more social resources were devoted to studying and doing philosophy in the 20th than in those other centuries.
ejh 03.02.09 at 6:55 pm
Marty Beach 03.02.09 at 7:02 pm
…And Wittgenstein was a beery swine Who was just as schloshed as Schlegel.
Matt 03.02.09 at 7:04 pm
_What is striking to me about the list is that no-one on it can compete with the greatest philosophers of the 19th century, the 18th century, or the 17th century_
I might say that it’s too soon to say this for sure, but I mostly agree. I think two main, connected, points are mostly responsible. First, specialization is much more common now, making it hard to make very important contributions to lots of areas. I also suspect that, with more social resources devoted to philosophy, there is a very high level of work done in small bits by lots of people, and that this makes it hard for individuals to stand out as much. (I have in mind something like Stephen J. Gould’s writings on genius and sports stars and the like.) This in turn feeds the specialization. That said, I think that only Aristotle and Kant have really first-rate claims to being the greatest philosophers, as no others seem to me to have made as many important contributions to so many fields.
“If I am right to understand Wittgenstein’s view of philosophy as, in some sense, the bottle he’s trying to guide us out of, the “greatest philosopher” designation amounts to something like: the most insightful bottle-dweller?”
Sort of, but this sounds like the Rortyan/skeptical “end-of-philosophy” reading I find misleading. I see W as more continuous with the tradition than that (thus my only slightly facetious “pre-Davidsonian” exegesis above). So no, I don’t cede “philosophy” to the Cartesians and the platonists. Now that I know what it is . I can explain my attitude in other terms, without mentioning W at all (or only a little bit!). I’ll be happy to throw W under the bus (as the saying goes) as long as I get what I want, philosophically speaking. I just don’t think I have to do that.
Matt, what about Plato? Hume? (I suppose I can’t get anyone else to buy Mill.)
Tom Hurka 03.02.09 at 7:37 pm
So mentioning a book I’ve praised before counts as having an ‘interest’ and ‘shilling’? I get 2 cents for every copy sold — I didn’t think that was worth mentioning, but maybe you guys would sell yourselves for that amount.
And dsquared, you know about as much about Wittgenstein as you do about international law. On which topic, you might want to consult the British military’s Manual of the Law of Armed Conflict (OUP, 2004), secs. 2.72 and 5.22.1. But hey, the authors are only senior military lawyers who’ve spent their lives thinking about these questions and you’re …. a guy who posts on a blog.
bartkid 03.02.09 at 7:52 pm
And not just because he was able to answer Wittgenstein’s question about how do you speak to large canine animals.
Kevin Robbins 03.02.09 at 8:32 pm
Kieren Setiya had an interesting discussion of this issue a while back on his Ideas of Imperfection blog. I believe the link is here: http://ideasofimperfection. blogspot. com/2008/01/ant-and-grasshopper_17.html
He cames to a rather different conclusion than Tom Hurka does, however. Though I haven’t read the book to which Hurka refers, if Setiya’s comments are at all right, this doesn’t look like a very promising counterexample to Wittgenstein.
Matt 03.02.09 at 8:36 pm
Paul - I’m biased against Plato because I find him so boring, but I also think that a couple of things keep him from ranking quite with Aristotle or Kant’s as a contender for the very top spot - he didn’t make what seem to me to be very important contributions to _quite_ as many areas (nothing good on science, say, like we see in Kant or Aristotle, and his contributions to logic and the philosophy of mathematics seem much more dubious to me than either Kant or Aristotle’s), and I think too many of his arguments are bad - the argument from equivocation is one of his favorites. Others will disagree, of course, and I don’t think there’s really an answer here. Hume is closer, and if we were considering “greatest thinker” rather than “greatest philosopher” I’d be more inclined to put him in because of the importance and influence of his _History of England_. There’s philosophical importance in that, too, but indirectly. Mill I’d put a step down from Hume because so much of his work outside of moral and political philosophy now seems not only wrong but not to be or have been extremely fruitful, though of course there’s debate on that and some aspects of it (“Millianism” in the philosophy of language, insofar as it can actually be traced to Mill, for example) have had a stronger influence.
g 03.02.09 at 8:45 pm
bartkid@94, “canine” is wrong as regards both W’s.
Tom Hurka @ 93, my reading of dsquared is that he isn’t accusing you of shilling, merely suggesting that ejh was doing so. Or are you actually objecting to his #58, and claiming that the point of what W. said about games *was* to suggest that “game” is an unanalysable concept?
dsquared 03.02.09 at 8:53 pm
#93: gosh, how jolly grown-up philosophers are these days. I am indeed aware of those two paragraphs, and of this IIHL document where I suspect you googled them. I don’t agree with you on their interpretation; I would be prepared to discuss this, but you’ll appreciate that the nature of the blog medium is such that I can’t possible afford to set the precedent that the way to attract my attention is to make a rude intervention on an unrelated thread. So basically, I’ll just note what kind of a humourless boor is capable of holding down a job as a professional philosopher these days and move on.
First, specialization is much more common now, making it hard to make very important contributions to lots of areas
hmmmm … although this is also true of the natural sciences, and there you’d have to say that ten randomly-selected winners of the Nobel prize this century would almost certainly be able to hold their own with anyone from previous centuries except Newton, Darwin and Galileo.
harry b 03.02.09 at 8:59 pm
Matt — Kant would disagree with you on that one, I think. (Hume).
ejh 03.02.09 at 9:04 pm
So mentioning a book I’ve praised before counts as having an ‘interest’
If you praise a book and it so happens you wrote the Foreword, it’s just good practice to mention it. I’m sure you know this. It’s probably less good practice to get huffy if somebody points out your inadvertent omission. I’m sure you ought to know this too.
JoB 03.02.09 at 9:07 pm
There’s little I can find disagreement with but as this is a blog thread I’ll just have to try harder ;-)
No, Davidson has to come before Wittgenstein because of the Carnapian argument: the science of philosophy progresses so anybody working out a previous idea well must be the better thinker. I’m serious here. I mean it. It would be hilarious if somebody said of Darwin that he produced the best biology ever.
Harry, that’s also why your nostalgia for the old folk is misplaced. Kant may be greater for the amount of progress he made in one step but a blanket statement like yours is an essentially counterproductive one.
Discussing who is or has the greatest is harmless until the point you take it seriously – it is not something one can measure or should measure; time will tell and even then those that do not make the A-, and not even the B-, list will have made their contribution. For every Carnap you have a Schlick, for every Schlick a … They’re all great if they further the state of philosophy and all bozo’s if they don’t and pricks if they didn’t try, but only wanted to be on the A-list.
(a tear comes to my eyes, I’m moved by myself, how is that possible?)
dsquared 03.02.09 at 9:07 pm
1.41.1: You pass me in a quadrangle, and a man shouts at us “2.7.2! 5.22.1!”. I say “Don’t worry, this fellow isn’t mad. We’re just trying to score points off each other from an argument we had three months ago.”
1.41.2: Although we are trying to score points, and he is putting up unnecessary obstacles, this isn’t a game .
1.42: If someone thinks I’m ignorant of paragraph 2.7.2, why would he start asking me questions about it?
1.42.1: Perhaps he wishes to show that he himself is absolutely familiar with it. But surely if that was the case, he’d have mentioned it three months ago? Surely nobody would act so high and mighty if he’d only found out himself last week?
1.42.2: In philosophy, we do not always behave as we do in ordinary conversation.
58: “[I]f you think that the point of the games example was that ‘game’ is an unanalyzable concept, you’re pretty badly traducing him.”
93: “[Y]ou know about as much about Wittgenstein as you do about….”
The admitted non-expert has the better of this exchange. In his “Games and the Good,” Hurka seems willing to admit that there’s a lack of fit between the use of the English ‘game’ and Suits’s definition (Hurka, for example, takes reading a novel to be ‘playing a game’ on Suits’s definition). But this is already to concede the point to Wittgenstein. This is perfectly clear on even a moderately careful reading of the relevant passages of the Investigations .
Anderson 03.02.09 at 9:13 pm
who is David K. Lewis
Lewis is the greatest philosopher of the 20th century, in some universe or other. Though probably not in this one.
JoB 03.02.09 at 9:14 pm
Hello, I would like to suggest a implementation:
Create a refresh command for Navigator Window.
After to copy. ex4 files into experts folder, we have to close and open the Terminal to see this new EA in Navigator Window. The problem is that I have some EAs running and I have a lot of problems for restarting and setting up them again.
This command could read again the folder showing all. ex4 files, and we wouldn't need to restart the Terminal, preserving our EAs that are already running.
¿Qué piensas?
Hello, I would like to suggest a implementation:
Create a refresh command for Navigator Window.
After to copy. ex4 files into experts folder, we have to close and open the Terminal to see this new EA in Navigator Window. The problem is that I have some EAs running and I have a lot of problems for restarting and setting up them again.
No, no lo haces. Simply right click on one of the standard Custom Indicators, for example ATR, then click modify, this opens it in MetaEditor, compile the file. this refreshes the contents of the navigator without needing to restart MT4..
MT4 build 509 brings a new feature in the Strategy Tester called “Spread” right under “Period”. However, Even if I change this value, the spread (Ask minus Bid) on backtests keeps constant the value written into the. fxt-Files. Any ideas on this?
Hanky : MT4 build 509 brings a new feature in the Strategy Tester called “Spread” right under “Period”. However, Even if I change this value, the spread (Ask minus Bid) on backtests keeps constant the value written into the. fxt-Files. Any ideas on this?
It is meant to be constant. it just means you can set the value.
Here the main problem in the security system Windows:
UAC blocks the changes in the local directory Program Files
Background directory mapping for applications running inside the Program Files
As a result of the program's behavior is very different when it is run under real Admin (explicitly raised) and the usual rights (even basic Admin, not to mention the user). In one case, starts direct access to directories, and in another - automatic mapping of OSes "to ensure compatibility."
Unfortunately, MetaTrader 4 was created in 2004, when there were questions about the stringent conditions for access to the Program Files directory, and now have to comply fully with the behavior of OSes that can be programmatically MAPP / move working directories. With 509 build we have already implemented a workaround, when after the update will not have to restart the terminal as it is forced to run with standard rights. As a result, there will be "loss of settings" because of the temporary change of access rights.
MetaTrader 5, in contrast to the MT4 created immediately to meet the stringent requirements for security and expressly own stores data in ProgramData directory and has fewer problems with access rights.
"As a result, there will be "loss of settings" because of the temporary change of access rights."
What I found when upgrading to 509 is that all the settings in things like the tester are lost (which makes sense as you're in your admin account to do the upgrade) but a simple shut-down and restart of MT4 brings them back (as you've switched back to standard account at that stage). Looks like the restart wasn't required before and now it is. Apologies if I just restated what is written above, it's not always easy to follow the translated English.
I have big problem with updated MT4 (newer than 482 build).
I used metatrader 4 more than 3 years without any problem, I like this because simply. but great platform.
But update from 482 build, then metatrader begin useless junk, because all characters on the screen will very small miniatur size.
I have 8 monitor system, all monitors is native FullHD resolution(1920x1080), I have not any issue before update from 482build.
I use now 482 build on my all metatrader in all brokers, but I don't know how much time working this version.
PLEASE FIX this very big fail in the terminal. exe.
If I overwrited terminal. exe after update with old version terminal. exe file, then showed normal sizes characters again, working good.
But after updte can't read any words or numbers comfortable, all letters and numbers was very small.
This is the 21th century. 1920x1080 the most computer display native resolution.
I don't want use svga or xga resolution for only MT4.
I've attached the 4 monitors screenshot before update(482 the last usable version) and after update to build 500.
I have big problem with updated MT4 (newer than 482 build).
I used metatrader 4 more than 3 years without any problem, I like this because simply. but great platform.
But update from 482 build, then metatrader begin useless junk, because all characters on the screen will very small miniatur size.
How did you get the icons and text to appear bigger than standard with build 482. I have a Build 445 terminal and it's icons and text are the same size as build 509.
About Our Daily Indicators
We track several different indicators for trading volatility ETPs (Exchange-Traded Products). Each indicator is a signal-based strategy which allows us to identify and trade along with directional trends. By using signal-based indicators we are able to remain objective in our trading and minimize errors that arise from making emotion-based decisions.
Following our strategies simply involves trading securities in the same direction of the indicator. This means buying a security when the indicator becomes positive, and selling a security (and buying the inverse) when the indicator turns negative.
Each indicator takes daily readings of market data after the close. The indicator values are then published on a set of gauges on our Daily Forecast page and emailed to subscribers. If any indicator changes direction and triggers a buy or sell signal, automated email alerts are also sent to any subscribers who wish to receive that alert.
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1) VXX Bias strategy - Our Bias strategy is constructed using VIX futures data along with a component which monitors underlying momentum changes in the term structure. - A positive value indicates a buy signal for VXX, while a negative value indicates the sell signal (and a buy signal for XIV).
2) Volatility Risk Premium (VRP) strategy - Our VRP strategy is a variation of a commonly used indicator for measuring forward implied volatility versus actual volatility. - A positive value indicates a buy signal for XIV, while a negative value indicates the sell signal (and a buy signal for VXX). --> Combined "VRP+VXX Bias" strategy
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Tracking Performance The most recent six months of forecasts is always available on our Daily Forecast page. Our backtested results include analysis of data since VIX futures began trading, and are summarized below.
Annualized percent gain/loss results for each of our strategies used with XIV & VXX are shown in the following table. For benchmark comparison purposes, a portfolio consisting of a "buy and hold" approach in XIV is included in the right column (Note: Daily prices for VXX and XIV prior to fund inception have been derived from actual VIX futures data).
The annual gain/loss data can be visualized in the graph below.
For detailed historical backtests of our indicators, please see the links at the bottom of our Subscribe page.
Note: If you are new to this area of the market, yo u can read about how volatility works and why it is possible to forecast volatility ETPs in our e-book, Fundamental Concepts and Strategies for Trading Volatility ETPs .
Strategies For Trading ZIV Similar to the VXX Bias, t he ZIV Bias measures headwind/tailwind of mid-term securities, specifically ZIV and its inverse, VXZ. It is also based on the shape of the term structure but includes an adjustment based on the shape of the front end of the VIX futures term structure. The gauge's scale is also normalized on a scale of -10 to +10, with the majority of values falling between -2 and +2 and a neutral zone at +/-0.5.
- A positive value for ZIV Bias indicates a buy signal for ZIV, while a negative value indicates the sell signal for ZIV.
More on the VXX Bias Indicator The VXX Bias provides a holistic view of the directional force of VXX, and can be conceptualized as a headwind or tailwind for the security. It is determined by the roll yield of first and second month VIX futures (learn more about the roll yield in our e-book ) along with momentum and state change inputs. The gauge values are on a scale from -10 to +10, with a more negative reading indicating a stronger negative bias (headwind), and a more positive reading indicating a stronge r positive bias (tailwind). T he gauge's range covers +4 and -4 standard deviations of values since March 2004. Therefore, you can generally expect readings for the VXX Bias to be between -3 and +3.
Historically there have been very wide gaps between first and second month VIX futures leading to extreme readings. On the negative side of the VXX Bias gauge, we've hit as low as -5, most recently in March 2012 when front month VIX futures were at 16.15 and second month was up at 21.6. On the positive side of the gauge we've had readings above 10, notably in Oct 2008 when front month was at 64 and second month was 42.9. Each of those extreme readings translate into very strong directional moves for VIX ETPs, and someday we may see them again.
Because VXX is the inverse of the funds XIV and SVXY, the VXX Bias forecast applies to those securities as well, but the negative needs to be changed to a positive or vice versa.
Further documentation of b acktested results using the VXX Bias strategy is available in this post.
------------ Hypothetical and Simulated Performance Disclaimer The results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. A diferencia de los resultados mostrados en un registro de desempeño real, estos resultados no representan el comercio real. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under - or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Los programas comerciales simulados o hipotéticos en general también están sujetos al hecho de que están diseñados con el beneficio de la retrospectiva. No se hace ninguna representación de que cualquier cuenta tenga o sea probable obtener ganancias o pérdidas similares a las que se muestran. Additional performance differences in backtests arise from the methodology of using the 4:00pm ET closing values for XIV, VXX, and ZIV as approximated trade prices for indicators that require VIX and VIX futures to settle at 4:15pm ET.
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LIFE Program, UNDP
Published by LIFE Program, UNDP, Egypt, 2001). Republished by “Academic Book Shop”, Cairo, 2005
Integrating Environmental Sustainability into Municipal Management – Planning and Management of Eco-city
The Second International Conference of Urban Planning – Ajman Municipality and Ajman University, 18-21 February, 2007
The State of Sustainable Development of Human Settlements in the Arab Region - General Assessment and Future Prospects
Work Shop: Urban Development – Perspectives of Environmental Protection and Sustainable Development
Work Shop: Urban Development – Perspectives of Environmental Protection and Sustainable Development. The Secretariat of Al-Madina Al-Monowarah city,
Dialogue, Partnership and Sustainable Development – Conceptual and Analytical Framework
The Arab Regional Conference
The Arab Regional Conference – Improving Living Conditions Through Sustainable Urban Development. Co-Author. Dr. Magdy Rabie. Cairo, 15–18, 2003.
Assessment of the Egyptian Experience of Participatory Urban Development – Institutional Framework, Mechanisms and the Issue of Sustainability
The Arab Regional Conference
The Arab Regional Conference – Improving Living Conditions Through Sustainable Urban Development. Co-Author. Dr. Magdy Rabie. Cairo, 15–18, 2003.
Deployment of Remote Sensing and GIS Techniques in Environmental Planning for Sustainable Development of Coastal Lagoons
The Second Regional Conference of Geographical Information Systems
Egyptian Coastal Lagoons: Comparative Analysis of Environmental Characteristics, Threats and Potentials for Eco-tourism
The International Conference on Tourism Development in Environmental Sensitive Areas
Urban Expansion and Housing Problem in the Arab City – A Case Study of Greater Cairo Region
The 12th Conference of the ‘Organization of Arab Cities
Urban Expansion and Housing Problem in the Arab City – A Case Study of Greater Cairo Region”. The 12th Conference of the ‘Organization of Arab Cities’ (Population Explosion of Arab Cities and the Challenges of the 21th Century. Co-author: Dr. Wafaa Amer. Kuwait. 24-26 April 2000
Urban Expansion and Growth of Spontaneous Settlements – Analytical Study of Patterns of the Phenomenon and Factors of Its Generation in Egyptian Cities
The 12th Conference of the ‘Organization of Arab Cities'
“Urban Expansion and Growth of Spontaneous Settlements – Analytical Study of Patterns of the Phenomenon and Factors of Its Generation in Egyptian Cities”. The 12th Conference of the ‘Organization of Arab Cities’ (Population Explosion of Arab Cities and the Challenges of the 21th Century. Kuwait. 24-26 April 2000.
Analysis of Regional Disparities as an Introduction for Reformulation of the National Structure of Planning Regions
The Arab Regional Conference (Environmental Balance and Sustainable Development)
“Analysis of Regional Disparities as an Introduction for Reformulation of the National Structure of Planning Regions”. The Arab Regional Conference (Environmental Balance and Sustainable Development). The Genera Organization of Physical Planning, The Arab League, HABITAT, ESCWA and Institute of Development of Arab Cities. Co-author: Dr. Wafaa Amer. Cairo. 21-24 February 2000.
Analysis of Characteristics and Mechanisms of Population Mobility and Settlement in New Cities and Its Utilization in Formulating Development Policies
A Symposium on: New Cities in the Arab World and Their Roles in Sustainable Development
“Analysis of Characteristics and Mechanisms of Population Mobility and Settlement in New Cities and Its Utilization in Formulating Development Policies”. A Symposium on: New Cities in the Arab World and Their Roles in Sustainable Development. Co-author: Amr Zaki. Akadeer, Morocco. 24-27 1999.
Upgrading the Effectiveness of University Institutions in Urban Development in the Arab World – Assessment of the Existing Situation and a Proposed Preliminary Framework for Developing the Educational Process
The International Symposium on: Urban Planning Education in the 21th Century between the Past Experience and Future Vision.
“Upgrading the Effectiveness of University Institutions in Urban Development in the Arab World – Assessment of the Existing Situation and a Proposed Preliminary Framework for Developing the Educational Process”. The International Symposium on: Urban Planning Education in the 21th Century between the Past Experience and Future Vision. Faculty of Regional and Urban Planning, Cairo University and University of Oxford Brooks. 26-28 April 1999.
Participatory Planning and Management of Local Urban Development – Analytical Study of the Egyptian Experience and Contribution for Formulation of a New Conceptual Paradigm
LIFE Program (UNDP) and Fredrich Ebert Institution - A Conference on: Dialogue and Partnership in the Egyptian Reality – Mechanisms, Institutions and Future Vision
“Participatory Planning and Management of Local Urban Development – Analytical Study of the Egyptian Experience and Contribution for Formulation of a New Conceptual Paradigm”. A Conference on: Dialogue and Partnership in the Egyptian Reality – Mechanisms, Institutions and Future Vision. LIFE Program (UNDP) and Fredrich Ebert Institution. Cairo. 17-18 1998.
The Role of Social-Spatial Information Systems in Formulating Policies and Management of Urban Development
The 11th Conference of ‘Arab Cities Organization’ (Development, Environment and Information Systems in the Arab City)
“The Role of Social-Spatial Information Systems in Formulating Policies and Management of Urban Development”. The 11th Conference of ‘Arab Cities Organization’ (Development, Environment and Information Systems in the Arab City). Co-author: Dr. Wafaa Amer. Tunis. 25-28 May 1997.
Formulation of an Urban Growth Management Strategy for Upper Egypt
Mansoura University - The 2nd International Engineering Conference of Mansoura University
“Formulation of an Urban Growth Management Strategy for Upper Egypt”. The 2nd International Engineering Conference of Mansoura University. Mansoura University. Co-auther: Dr. Samy A. Kamel. Mansoura. 8-10 April 1997.
Analysis of Spatial Distribution of Housing Problem – A Study of Evaluation of Housing Quality in Greater Cairo Region Using Factorial Analysis Technique
Faculty of Economics & Political Science, Cairo University - The Annual Conference of Statistics and Computer Modeling in social and Human Sciences.
“Analysis of Spatial Distribution of Housing Problem – A Study of Evaluation of Housing Quality in Greater Cairo Region Using Factorial Analysis Technique”. The Annual Conference of Statistics and Computer Modeling in social and Human Sciences. Faculty of Economics & Political Science – Cairo University. Cairo. March 1996.
Participatory Planning, The Absent Dimension in Rural and Urban Development Management
Freidrich Neumann Institute, Cairo - A Symposium on: Spontaneous Settlements - Upgrading Priorities and Alternatives. Society of Urban Environment Development
“Participatory Planning, The Absent Dimension in Rural and Urban Development Management”. A Symposium on: Spontaneous Settlements - Upgrading Priorities and Alternatives. Society of Urban Environment Development. Freidrich Neumann Institute. Cairo. 15-17 May, 1994.
Social-Spatial Segregation in the Arab City - A Comparative Analysis Study
The 10th Conference of the Organization of Arab Cities (Arab City and Future Challenges).
“Social-Spatial Segregation in the Arab City - A Comparative Analysis Study”. The 10th Conference of the Organization of Arab Cities (Arab City and Future Challenges). Co-author: Dr. Wafaa Amer. Dubai, UAE. 3-7 April 1994.
Kuwaiti Migration to Egypt Due to the Gulf War: A Study of Determining Factors of Destination Decision Making and Adaptation to the New Social Context
International Population Council. Erbed University, the Kingdom of Jordan - Symposium on: Social Implications of Population Displacement and Resettlement in the Middle East.
“Kuwaiti Migration to Egypt Due to the Gulf War: A Study of Determining Factors of Destination Decision Making and Adaptation to the New Social Context”. Symposium on: Social Implications of Population Displacement and Resettlement in the Middle East. International Population Council. Erbed University, the Kingdom of Jordan. Co-author: Dr. Magdy Rabie. Erbed. 29-31 July 1992.
Urban Growth and the Question of Agricultural Land in the Egyptian Village - A Study of the Methodology of Planning Future Extension Boundaries
Faculty of Agriculture, Cairo University - Symposium of The Role of Physical Planning in Rural Settlements Planning
“Urban Growth and the Question of Agricultural Land in the Egyptian Village - A Study of the Methodology of Planning Future Extension Boundaries”. Symposium of The Role of Physical Planning in Rural Settlements Planning. Faculty of Agriculture, Cairo University. Co-author: Dr. Magdy Rabie. Cairo. 26-28 May, 1992.
Planning of New Desert Settlements in Egypt: An Ecological Approach
The 1st National Conference of the Institute of Environmental Studies and Research, Cairo
“Planning of New Desert Settlements in Egypt: An Ecological Approach”. The 1st National Conference of the Institute of Environmental Studies and Research. Cairo, Jan 31-Feb 4, 1987.
Indicators for Formulating a National Policy for the Use of New and Renewable Energy Resources
Cairo International Symposium on Renewable Energy Resources. Organized by the National Center of Research and University of Miami, Cairo
“Indicators for Formulating a National Policy for the Use of New and Renewable Energy Resources in Egypt”. Cairo International Symposium on Renewable Energy Resources. Organized by the National Center of Research and University of Miami, U. S.A. Cairo, June 13-16, 1988. Co-Author: Engineer Ibrahim Abou Senna.
Development of Deteriorated Urban Areas Between Planning Thought and Implementation
The 2nd Scientific Conference of the Higher Institute of Social Work, Cairo
“Development of Deteriorated Urban Areas Between Planning Thought and Implementation”. The 2nd Scientific Conference of the Higher Institute of Social Work. Cairo, Feb 26-27, 1989. Co-Author: Dr. Khadiga Abdelrahman and Dr. Magdy Rabie.
Basic Features of Urban Planning Concepts in Response to Problems of Basic Education in Egypt
International Symposium organized by the Egyptian Society of Architects and International Association of Architects
“Basic Features of Urban Planning Concepts in Response to Problems of Basic Education in Egypt”. International Symposium organized by the Egyptian Society of Architects and the International Association of Architects. Cairo, Feb 26-28, 1990.
Housing Problem in Egypt - A Study of Evolution Dynamics and Diagnostic Assessment
International Housing Research Conference - CILOG Foundation des Villes, Paris
“Housing Problem in Egypt - A Study of Evolution Dynamics and Diagnostic Assessment”. International Housing Research Conference - CILOG Foundation des Villes. Paris, July 3-6, 1990.
Methodology for Analysis of Demand Characteristics As An Approach for Formulation of Responsive Housing Policies in New Urban Settlements
International Symposium organized by the Academy of Scientific Research and Technology, Cairo
“Methodology for Analysis of Demand Characteristics As An Approach for Formulation of Responsive Housing Policies in New Urban Settlements”. International Symposium organized by the Academy of Scientific Research and Technology. Cairo, Sept 24, 1990. Co-Author: Dr. Magdy Rabie.
Socio-Cultural Adaptation in Desert Environment - Indications for the Egyptian Experience of Development of Small Settlements in Remote Desert Regions
The 2nd National Conference of the Institute of Environmental Studies and Research, Ain Shams University, Cairo
“Socio-Cultural Adaptation in Desert Environment - Indications for the Egyptian Experience of Development of Small Settlements in Remote Desert Regions”. The 2nd National Conference of the Institute of Environmental Studies and Research. Ain Shams University, Cairo, Oct 28-Nov 1, 1990.
Metropolitan Villages in Greater Cairo Region - A Study of the Phenomenon and Indicators for Policy Formulation
International Symposium Organized by the General Authority of Housing, Building and Physical Planning Research, Cairo
“Metropolitan Villages in Greater Cairo Region - A Study of the Phenomenon and Indicators for Policy Formulation”. International Symposium Organized by the General Authority of Housing, Building and Physical Planning Research. Cairo, Dec 3-5, 1990. Co-Author: Dr. Magdy Rabie.
New Towns in the Arab World: Assessment Study
The 1st International Conference of Faculty of Regional and Urban Planning, Cairo University
“New Towns in the Arab World: Assessment Study”. The 1st International Conference of Faculty of Regional and Urban Planning. Cairo University, Dec 15-18 1990. Co-Author: Dr. Magdy Rabie.
Social-Spatial Segregation in the Egyptian City - A Study of the Phenomenon and its Correlation to a Selected Group of Social and Physical Variables
The 26th Conference of Statistics Computer Science and Operation Research. Institute of Statistical Studies and Research, Cairo
“Social-Spatial Segregation in the Egyptian City - A Study of the Phenomenon and its Correlation to a Selected Group of Social and Physical Variables”. The 26th Conference of Statistics Computer Science and Operation Research. Institute of Statistical Studies and Research. Cairo, Dec 21-23, 1991.
Housing Crisis in the Egyptian City - A Study of the Spatial Distribution of the Problem and its Correlation to Social and Physical Variables
The International Housing Conference, Research Center of Housing, Building and Physical Planning, Cairo
“Housing Crisis in the Egyptian City - A Study of the Spatial Distribution of the Problem and its Correlation to Social and Physical Variables”. The International Housing Conference. Research Center of Housing, Building and Physical Planning. Cairo, February 23-26, 1992. Co-Author: Dr. Wafaa Amer.
Организации
Supreme Council of Planning and Urban Development, Egypt
Member
National Fund for Establishing and Enhancing Industrial Zones. Industrial Development Authority, Ministry of Industry and Trade, Egypt
Member of the Board of Directors
The General Authority of Industrial and Metallurgical Projects. Ministry of Trade and Industry, Egypt
Member of the Board of Directors
Syndicate Higher Council, Egypt
Member
Hugein Education
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Food and Drink
There is scarcely an aspect of daily cultural practice which illustrates the processes of transformation in European culture as clearly as daily nutrition. Indeed, securing the latter was essential for the daily fight for survival right up to the mid-19th century, with large sections of the population frequently being confronted with harvest failures and food shortages resulting from wars, extreme weather, pests, fire, changes in the agrarian order, and population growth. Consequently, food and drink were central both in daily life and in the celebration of feasts, and provided an opportunity for social differentiation. The hope for better nutrition was the primary impetus for many migration processes and a canvas onto which desires were projected. The "Land of Cockaigne" motif, which can be traced from the Frenchman Fabliau de Coquaignes in the 13th century to Erich Kästner's (1899–1974) children's book "Der 35. Mai oder Konrad reitet in die Südsee" (1931), is a classic example of this.
Inhaltsverzeichnis Table of Contents
Introducción
Daily nutrition 1 has in the past been dependent on many exogenous factors, and remains so. 2 Individual preferences have only begun to play a more significant role in nutrition since the second half of the 20th century. Particularly in pre-modern society, what people ate was decided to a far greater degree by political, economic, and religious factors. The selection of foods, but also the dining culture and the norms of behaviour at the table were defined by tradition, and were considered to be binding on all members of society. 3
For much of the modern era, European culinary culture exhibited enormous spatial and social diversity, which persisted well into the 20th century. 4 However, this broad spectrum of traditions, which in effect only had an emphasis on energy-rich foods and protein-rich products in common, began to narrow from the 16th century onward – at least among the European social elite – as French aristocratic cuisine became the example for others to follow. In the 20th century, another dominant culinary culture, the American. arrived on the scene, but this was now based on industrial production, products aimed at a mass market, and in particular on a new dining context, which over time played a central role in the dissolution of established dining chronologies. 5
Many aspects of daily nutrition have left little trace in the historical sources. This is particularly true of the rural context and of foodstuffs which were neither traded nor taxed, such as herbs and vegetables from garden plots, and mushrooms and berries gathered in the autumn. We nevertheless know, for example, that turnips, cabbages, beans, and peas, along with leeks, celery, and pumpkins formed the basis of the diet of the rural population. At the beginning of the 16th century, white cabbage, red cabbage, and savoy cabbage were added to the diet, and Brussels sprouts, swedes, cauliflowers, mangolds and lettuce were added from the late 16th century. The fertile soils of southwest Germany. the low countries and, in particular, France were far superior to the less fertile soils of eastern Europe and Russia when it came to growing these new vegetables. In the sparsely populated Scandinavian north, horticulture was not possible at all. However, gathering fruits and plants in forests played a more important role there.
We have more detailed information regarding the consumption of alcohol, as this has left deeper traces in the historical sources – for both fiscal reasons and reasons of public order – which is why this topic is dealt with in greater detail in this article. 6 There are a number of distinct phases in the history of nutrition in the modern period, though these overlap to a considerable degree, affecting one another but also diverging. For this reason, it is difficult to draw a hard and fast distinction between them. However, two large phases emerge rather clearly. There was the Reformation period, which ended with the Thirty Years' War (1618–1648) and which gave rise to different dietary systems in close proximity due to the differences between the confessions of the issue of fasting. And there was the Little Ice Age. which caused numerous harvest failures and continuing undernourishment up to the 19th century. However, new foods from other continents and the colonies also appeared on the menu in Europe during this period, and table manners which were formerly only observed among the aristocracy gradually became the norm among broader sections of the population.
The End of Medieval Cuisine?
At the beginning of the modern period, the diet in Europe remained very similar to the medieval period, and old traditions were only replaced gradually. For the majority of the population – particularly in the towns and cities of central Europe – this meant that the calorie intake was higher compared to the preceding centuries, and compared to the 18th century and the early 19th century. It is estimated that roughly 200 kilograms of cereals was consumed per person annually. Recent research suggests that the consumption of meat was lower during this period than academics had previously assumed, 7 though it is likely that roughly 50 kilograms of meat per person was consumed annually in the territory north of the Alps. Meat consumption was considerably higher in the northern part of the German-speaking territory than in the Mediterranean region. por ejemplo. 8
A complete daily ration usually consisted of a morning meal after the morning work had been completed ("prandium" or "imbs") and an evening meal. In addition to these, up to three other meals were consumed daily: morning soup, supper and nightcap. Among the poor, the dietary staples were primarily bread and a kind of porridge (a puree made with grain, usually cooked in lard). The whiter the bread, the more refined it was considered to be. In the case of meat, boiled soup meat was the simplest and the cheapest option. Roasts, poultry, and game were more prestigious, and they were the preserve of the nobility.
There were also differences between rich and poor with regard to the consumption of fish, which was primarily consumed on fast days, of which there were up to 150 annually. The wealthier section of the population availed of a range of fresh salt-water and fresh-water fish. Salmon was the most popular species. As a fresh-water fish, it could be caught relatively easily almost everywhere in central Europe. In addition to native river crabs, the poor primarily ate salted or dried sea fish, even in regions far from the coast. From the mid-14th century, fish farming flourished in a broad belt stretching from Bohemia. Poland and Silesia through Lusatia to Württemberg and Lorraine. providing a good supply of fresh-water fish up to the early 16th century. There were also dramatic differences between the social classes when it came to the supply of vegetables. The poor could scarcely afford anything other than dried legumes, while the rich could purchase fresh seasonal vegetables, and in the larger cities they could even buy citrus fruits from time to time.
The consumption of alcohol underwent a fundamental change at the beginning of the modern period. From the late medieval period onward, less wine was produced and consumed, primarily due to the increasingly unsuitable climate. Additionally, from the 14th century to the 16th century, the bottom-fermented hops beers, which could be stored for much longer, increasingly replaced the older gruit ales, which were brewed using a mixture of herbs. 9 Wine – often spiced, sugared, and heated – then became a central element of the drinks culture of the higher social classes throughout Europe. However, the volume of alcoholic drinks consumed was not nearly as large as earlier studies of customs and culture had assumed. According to realistic estimations, the average consumption in Cologne. one of the wealthiest cities during that period, lay at most between 175 and 295 litres of beer per person annually. 10 However, many people drank mainly – or exclusively – water, as pre-modern agrarian society was not capable of producing ingredients of sufficient quality for brewing in sufficient quantities.
The combination of food, the community, and public display played a central role in social and cultural life. This was fundamentally true of the agrarian context. Painted in Flanders around 1568 and still medieval in structure, De Boerenbruiloft ( The Peasant Wedding ) by Pieter Bruegel the Elder (ca. 1525–1569) depicts this phenomenon. Due to numerous saints' days, feast days, and public holidays, urban artisans worked no more than 265 days annually, which is equivalent to the modern five-day week. The food consumed on work-free days differed to that consumed on workdays for it was richer and higher in protein. However, just like during the week, it was consumed in a group, usually with work colleagues rather than with the family, and the dining context reflected hierarchies and traditions.
Elaborate and formal public feasts served to demonstrate hierarchical structures. 11 For example, the aldermen of the wealthy city of Constance on Lake Constance put on a feast in December 1452 in honour of the mayor and the reeve. As the city accounts record "100 mannen" as guests, we can conclude that no women were invited. The city accounts detail exactly what was served. The organizers purchased 95 pounds of beef, 37 pounds of pork and 18 pounds of sausage, as well as 30 fat hens, 31 ducks, and 121 thrushes. They also procured spices, sugar, almonds, saffron, and 110 eggs, in addition to 300 carp and pike, and 140 smaller fish in order to prepare the stock for the popular Galrey fish galantine. In addition to these enormous quantities of fish and meat, bread, rice, cake, cheese, confectionery, and nuts were provided. 537 litres of wine were served. Compared to the vast expenditure on food, the crockery provided was decidedly modest. 120 bowls and 120 wooden plates were bought, as well as Tellerbrot (literally "plate bread"), i. e. bread which was used to eat on. 12
However, it is debatable whether these details can be taken at face value in a cultural analysis of the feast. Did each guest really eat two kilos of meat, numerous fish, and trimmings, and drink five litres of wine? That was certainly not the case. We must assume instead that the leftovers were brought home, donated to the poor, or given to employees of the city as a form of inflation-free payment-in-kind.
The transition from the medieval to the modern period had comparatively little effect at the dinner table, and many basic structures of medieval mealtimes persisted well into the 16th century. However, this does not apply to behaviour at the table. A range of French rules of behaviour from the mid-15th century clearly demonstrate how difficult it was even for people in the higher social classes to depart from older norms, for example to not dig into all the bowls with their hands at the beginning of the meal, to not toss gnawed bones back into the bowl or over their shoulders, or even just to wash their hands before eating. 13 The "Prozeß der Zivilisation" ("civilizing process") 14 proceeded at best very gradually. In the late 15th century, many archaic characteristics persisted. On the one hand, people were still placing gnawed chicken bones back in the bowl, while, on the other hand, there was much discussion about the rules regarding fasting and the godlessness of gluttony.
During the course of the 15th century, Tischzucht (table discipline) was also discussed in the more urbanized regions of the German-speaking territory. One of the earliest such documents was a book entitled Von tisch zucht published in 1471 by Clara Hätzlerin (1430–1476). whose family were burgesses of Augsburg. This work discusses among other things the hierarchy at the table and the importance of saying grace. Hätzlerin also encourages her readers not to use the tablecloth to blow their nose. Such rules soon became standard for the entire European bourgeoisie and they signalled the emerging homogenization of the dining culture of the European bourgeoisie and aristocracy. 15
During the transition to the modern period, hostelries also emerged as an integrative component of the European culture of dining and imbibing. Particularly along trade routes and in cities, multifunctional hostelries became common and served as centres of communication and the exchange of news, while in the countryside and in the sparsely populated regions of northern and eastern Europe, the older, archaic hospitality remained dominant.
We can summarize that the structure of the European diet changed comparatively little between 1450 and 1550, even in spite of the discovery of the New World. However, the Reformation brought about more abrupt changes because it fundamentally changed the culture of fasting and feasting by getting rid of the feast days for saints in many territories (those that became Protestant). Additionally, the Calvinist Reformation in particular resulted in a fundamentally more critical reappraisal of food consumption. Martin Luther (1483–1546) condemned the supposed drunkenness of the Germans, but he himself did not fundamentally reject earthly indulgences. John Calvin (1509–1564) and Huldrych Zwingli (1484–1531). on the other hand, condemned all gluttony. Additionally, the strict fasting regulations which had persisted up to the Reformation were relaxed in the Protestant territories, or even reversed. Thus a bitter controversy soon emerged at the borders between Catholic and Protestant milieus over the supposedly correct diet, and this controversy had a considerable effect on people's daily habits. What was served at mealtimes in the northern Netherlands. in Switzerland. and in Scandinavia and how public taverns were evaluated and, in particular, regulated, now differed considerably from those territories which had remained Catholic.
Consumption and Innovation at the Beginning of the Modern Period – Rice, Buckwheat, and Meat
At the beginning of the modern period, the cuisine of the ruling elite and the dietary culture of the broader masses, which remained medieval in structure and heavily spiced, still received their primary impulses from Italy. In particular, the old trading port of Venice dominated the cuisines of central Europe. Rice cultivation blossomed in northern Italy in the late 15th century, and soon spread to central Europe as a result of trans-Alpine trade. While riso had previously been cultivated in monasteries and ground to make a binding agent for ointment, the political campaigns of individual rulers – particularly the Milanese duke Gian Galeazzo Sforza (1469–1494) – resulted in the large-scale cultivation of rice south of the Alps. Compared to the established cereals, rice offered the prospect of a much higher yield and thus of an additional support in the event of food shortages. Promoted by advisory tracts such as the Discorsi ("Speeches", 1544) of Pietro Andrea Mattioli (1500–1577). the cultivation of rice spread throughout the whole of northern Italy during the course of the 16th century. In the well-watered Po Plain. the "treasure of the swamps" (Mattioli) was already a standard component in the meals of the broader population by 1550. 16
The Italian courts also influenced the refined cuisine of the European ruling class. The kitchen at the court of Naples was one of the main centres of innovation into the 16th century, where cooks like Ruperto de Nola introduced numerous Catalan, Castilian, and Moorish influences, as detailed in early cookbooks such as Nola's Lybre de doctrina Pera ben Servir: de Tallar: y del Art de Coch ("Textbook of Good Serving, of Cutting, and of the Art of Cooking", 1520) . The Florentine court of Caterina de Medici (1519–1589) also became something of a guiding example of European court dining. The Florentine influence brought about a strong refinement of courtly table manners in particular. Michel de Montaigne (1533–1592) reported in his Journal du Voyage en Italie ("Journal of Travels in Italy", 1580/1581) . "Vor jene Personen, denen eine besondere Ehre erwiesen werden soll, stellen sie große silberne Platten. Darüber liegen eine vierfach gefaltete Serviette, Brot, Messer, Löffel und Gabel." 17 Thus, eating with a fork instead of with one's hands reached France via the court of Caterina de Medici, who became queen of France when her husband Henry II (1519–1559) acceded to the throne in 1547. During the course of the 16th century, the table cutlery became more diversified until French aristocratic dining ultimately established the standard place setting which still applies today .
The broader population in Europe was not initially affected by the civilising process which was led by the Italian courts and subsequently the French court. Instead, eastern Europe became an innovative space for simple rural cooking during the transition from the medieval to the modern period. Among the more significant innovations was the widespread cultivation of buckwheat, which entered eastern central Europe from Russia and subsequently spread to the countries south of the Alps, and Carinthia and Tirol via Black Sea trade. The cultivation of buckwheat ultimately spread to the Netherlands and northwestern Germany via seaborne trade between Venice and Antwerp .
The large livestock herds from the territory of present-day Hungary. Poland, and Ukraine. which were driven to the cities of central Europe, also played a large role in the food supply of central Europe. Consequently, the consumption of meat in central Europe reached a level during the 16th century which has not been replicated until the 21th century. It is estimated that more than 100 kilograms of meat was consumed per person per annum in the first decades of the 1500s, which corresponds to a daily meat consumption of nearly 1 kilogram for a family of three. 18 Descriptions of the supposedly sparse diet of the rural population are somewhat contradicted by these figures. Although Johannes Boemus (1485–1535) wrote of the peasant diet in 1520 that "[g]eringes Brot, Haferbrei oder gekochte Bohnen bildet die Speise der Bauern, Wasser oder Molken ihren Trank", 19 the available figures show that a more nuanced understanding is required. The consumption of meat in the daily diet of the rural population was indeed mainly limited to boiled pieces of meat, which were eaten with porridge, soup, or coarse bread. This form of preparation involved only a small loss of fat compared to roasting, especially since all edible parts could be used. Meat as a dish on its own or roasted – as enjoyed by the aristocracy – was a prestige food which was reserved for important religious feasts and other important customary occasions, such as weddings and kermises.
The relative cultural prestige of the various types of meat also requires a more nuanced understanding. For example, the meat content of the daily diet of the rural population of central Europe was almost exclusively pig meat. Thus, Hieronymus Bock (1498–1554) wrote in his work Teutsche Speißkammer (für gesunde und Kranke) . which was published in 1555, that "Vnsere Bawren essen viel lieber feißt Schweinenfleisch gesotten vnd gebraten, dann alle hüner. Sie sagen auch, wann ein Saw federn hett, vnnd könt über ein Zaun fliegen, übertreffe sie alles gevögel vnd federspil." 20 However, dietary orders, invoices and other sources pertaining to cities and their citizenry show that pork and (in contrast to the present day) beef were less preferred in the cities. Roast veal and mutton were the highest status meats.
An extraordinarily detailed dietary order of the imperial count Joachim von Öttingen (1470–1520) gives detailed information regarding the quantities consumed, sorts of meat and preparation techniques in the kitchens of the aristocracy and the commoners. According to the order, serfs received:
Des morgens ain suppen oder gemues [im Sinne von Mus = Brei]. ain millich den arbeittern. den andern ain suppen. & # 8211; Des Mittags suppen vnd flaisch. ain kraut, ain pfeffer oder eingemacht flaisch. ain gemues oder mylich. IIII essen. & # 8211; Des Nachts. Suppen vnd flaisch. ruben vnd flaisch oder eingemacht flaisch. ain gemues oder millich. III essen. 21
This was in stark contrast to the roast dishes of game, poultry, and innards on the table of the imperial count:
An aim flaischtag auff vnsern tisch. Ain voressen. täglich geendert. Alß von voglen, wildpret. wurst. Kalbskopf. kröß. gelung. leber. kudlfleck etc. – Suppen des morgens offt eingeschniten vnd flaisch Henne oder Höner. so die wol vorhanden sind. darain. & # 8211; kraut vnd ruben gesatten. So gut ochsen da sind ain stuck des flaisch. & # 8211; Ain pfeffer. darjnn wildpret. zungen. Ejtter etc. – Ain gemues verendert all tag. & # 8211; Ain eingebickts [Gepökeltes]. Sülts oder kaltfues [Kalbsfuß] etc. Ain prättes [Gebratenes] zwayer oder dreyerley. & # 8211; So man sew metziget. ain stuck schweines prötlin. Ain reys. gersten. kern. lynsin etc. – Er mag auch geben für ein vor oder mittelessen. Ochsenhyrn gesotten oder gebachen. ein gebaiß [gebeizt] lendpratten von ochssen. Des Nachts sollen zway essen minder gegeben werden. alß ain pfeffer vnd ain gemues. ist VI essen. 22
It is furthermore necessary to be cognisant of regional differences, as the types and quantities of meat consumed varied considerably between northern Europe, southern Germany. Austria. and eastern Europe. Thus, hospital accounts and other sources for southern Germany demonstrate that the rural diet there was considerably more sparse that in the regions between the Netherlands and the Central German Uplands. While in the latter regions boiled meat eaten with bread was an integral part of the daily diet, the diet in southern Germany at the beginning of the 16th century was more herbivorous. Bread was even less common in southern Germany, where soups, porridge, and flour-based foods played a more significant role.
Vegetarian food became dominant throughout central Europe from the second half of the 16th century at the latest. While the consumption of meat in the Mediterranean region remained relatively constant during this period at approximately 30 kilograms per person per annum, a shortage of meat and animal fats became a permanent feature of the diet in central and northern Europe, which in some regions persisted right into the 20th century. The decisive factor in this development was the sharp rise in food prices in the 16th century while wages remained relatively constant and the population grew strongly. 23 Additionally, the area of land devoted to the cultivation of cereals in central Europe grew at the expense of the area devoted to livestock farming. Areas in southern Germany and the Alpine region which were particularly affected compensated for the scarcity of meat in the daily diet with the introduction of flour-based dishes 24 – Swabian noodles ( Spätzle ), Bavarian dumplings ( Klöße ) and Austrian pancakes ( Palatschinken ) are present-day reminders of this change. The boarder population now scarcely consumed meat at all outside of the important feast days, and the general consumption of meat in the German-speaking territory fell drastically from about 100 kilograms per person per annum around 1500 to only 16 kilograms per person per annum around 1800. 25
The proverbial "daily bread" gained its position of central importance in the European daily diet during this period, accounting for up to 75 per cent of the calorie intake of the total population in the German-speaking territory between the 16th and the 18th centuries. Numerous customs (for example, the large significance of the Gebildbrote . i. e. bread which is shaped to represent or symbolize something, such as an animal), proverbs, and expressions are continuing evidence of the central importance of bread in the historical daily culture of central Europe. Generally speaking, in central Europe bread was consumed from an earlier period and in larger quantities than in western Europe. where maize played a much bigger role, and the Mediterranean region. However, it is important to note both geographical and social variations when discussing bread consumption in pre-industrial Europe. While bread had become the predominant staple in rural areas of central Germany where tillage farming predominated as early as the early 16th century, 26 porridge dishes – which were harder to digest but could be prepared using less energy, and were viewed as more primitive – continued to be eaten for a considerable period in the poorer rural regions of Europe, for example in the Central German Uplands. The same is true for the broad tillage plains of eastern Europe, such as those in Hungary. 27
Health surveys ( Physikatsberichte ) from the mid-19th century illustrate, for example, that the population in east Bavaria. which was rural and had hardly experienced any industrial development, only ate bread on feast days, and otherwise predominantly ate soup, potatoes, and porridge. The types of bread consumed are also subject to geographical and social variation. While bread made of wheat flour was baked almost exclusively in the Mediterranean region, in the German-speaking territory fine wheaten bread was viewed as a prestige food of the higher social classes. North of the Alps, bread was primarily made using rye flour, with regional variations in terms of the spices added and the fineness to which the rye was ground. 28
Early Internationalisation and Innovations in the 17th and 18th Centuries – Potatoes, Maize and Hot Drinks
Some of the most significant innovations in European culinary culture resulted from the importation of new foodstuffs and stimulants from the New World. As regards its essential structural elements, modern European cuisine is essentially a product of the "Columbian exchange". Starting in Britain and the Netherlands, the potato entered the dietary culture of the broad masses of central Europe during the 17th century, as one of the first new crops to do so. The integration of the potato into the system of daily meals in Europe was one of the most significant innovations in modern European cuisine . It was also one of the most important steps towards overcoming subsistence crises of the type ancien . Así
the potato, along with coffee and liquor, can be viewed as the decisive innovation – even as a central cultural norm – during the emergence of the modern system of dishes and meals in the 18th century. The potato brought about the ultimate decline of the porridge dishes which had been the main staple for broad sections of the population from the medieval period. 29
However, the potato only established its position as a staple gradually. Here again we can see the significance of social status struggles in the cultural history of the European diet. In contrast to colonial produce like coffee, tea, and chocolate, the potato was viewed as a low-status foodstuff of the lower social classes from France to Austria-Hungary well into the 18th century. In fact, the potato was originally viewed as an emergency foodstuff in the rural diet, and its spread was hampered by the continued cultivation of traditional crops up to the great famines of the 1770s. It was not until 1770–1772 and the introduction of comprehensive political measures to promote cultivation of the potato that the potato became a staple in all regions north of the Alps.
Simultaneously, the cultivation of maize across large swathes of southern Europe. particularly in Spain. Italia. and the Balkans. helped to bring an end to famines in these territories. Due to its adaptability to different climatic conditions and its comparatively high and stable yields, maize spread more quickly than the potato. As early as the 1520s – just 30 years after Christopher Columbus's (1451–1506) first voyage to America – Andalusian peasants began to cultivate maize. During the course of the 16th century, maize cultivation spread through Spain and along the cisalpine region as far as Carinthia, 30 replacing millet in many cases. In the 17th century, maize cultivation spread to southeastern Europe through the Venetian Republic. 31 Maize played a particularly important role in overcoming famines and assisting population growth in the latter region. 32
While the potato, as a rare example of an "upwardly mobile cultural good", spread comparatively quickly, the example of coffee demonstrates how slowly changes were often adopted. Probably originating in Yemen and Ethiopia. coffee initially reached the Mediterranean region, and then spread northward in the 17th century by means of sea-borne trade from Venice, before spreading from Britain and the Netherland to central Europe. The earliest reports of the consumption of these exotic beans from the Middle East come from the courts of rulers. Again the nobility functioned as a testing ground for innovation, albeit hesitantly, as the European palate took some time to get used to the bitter taste of coffee. In 1710, Liselotte of the Palatinate, who was Elisabeth Charlotte of Orléans (1652–1722) from 1671 onward, compared the beverage – which she had presumably become acquainted with at the court of Versailles – with "Ruß und Feigbohnen" ("soot and lupin beans").
It was not until the mid-17th century that the gustatory conservatism of the broader European population was overcome, with the urban bourgeois coffee houses acting as a catalyst. The fashionable aristocratic beverage and luxury good now became very popular in broader, bourgeois circles also. The further spread of the consumption of coffee in the 18th century can be summarized using the term "sinking cultural good". 33 That is to say, coffee, formerly a luxury good, "sank" from the nobility via the urban bourgeoisie right down to the broad rural masses, and it gradually became a drink of the masses during the late 18th century and the 19th century. It ultimately became affordable for even the poorer sections of society – often in a diluted form or in the form of coffee surrogates. 34 The fall in the price of coffee which made this development possible resulted from the expanding cultivation of coffee in the British and French colonies. 35
As the practice of drinking coffee became increasingly common among the bourgeoisie, it lost its significance in aristocratic circles, and it was replaced there during the course of the 17th century by black and green tea imported from China. At the court of Charles II (ca. 1630–1685) in London. tea replaced coffee in the beverage culture of the court in the 1660s. The first deliveries of tea had reached Europe around 1580 via the Portuguese trading post in Macau. In 1610, the Dutch merchant fleet had also entered the tea trade via its ports on Java and Sumatra. before the British East India Company became the dominant player in the global tea trade in the early 18th century. 36 The volume of tea shipped by the East India Company from east Asia to London grew from 50 tonnes in 1700 to 15,000 tonnes in 1800. 37 Between 1799 and 1833, the quantity of tea imported annually into Europe as a whole was around 73,000 tonnes. 38
With the exception of the Netherlands and neighbouring Frisia. continental Europe only gradually acquired the tea-drinking habit, if at all. In Britain, on the other hand, tea-drinking quickly spread through all section of the population during the 18th century. There are a number of reasons why tea reached broader sections of the population much more quickly than coffee and cocoa, the other two hot drinks of colonial trade. In particular, it was much easier to prepare tea at home from the ready-to-use leaves than was the case with cocoa, for example, and the quantity of leaves needed was comparatively small. The tea leaves could also be supplemented with native herbs if necessary. 39 It was thus easier to integrate the cup of tea into the existing system of meals, which was particularly important in the era of factory work with its short breaks.
Just as the tankard of coffee replaced the morning and evening beer in central and northern Europe, in Britain tea became the main drink at meal times, but it also became the social drink in the bourgeois milieus. The customary 5 o'clock tea with sweet cake, marmalade, and scones is still integral to British tea culture in the present day. And just as in central Europe Enlightenment writers criticized the consumption of coffee by peasants, the new fashion for tea in Britain also drew criticism, such as that expressed by the Scottish writer William Mackintosh (1662–1743) :
When I came to a friend's house of a morning, I used to be asked if I had my morning draught yet? I am now asked if I have had my tea? And in lieu of the big Quaigh with strong ale and toast, and after a dram of good wholesome Scots spirits, there is now a tea-kettle put to the fire, the tea-table and silver and china equipage brought in, and marmalade and cream! 40
However, reactions to tea, which was believed to be stimulating and to improve one's health, were predominantly positive, and already in the 18th century traditional European medicinal herbs were used to produce a substitute tea for the broader population. 41
Cocoa also began its career in Europe under medicinal auspices in the form of drinking chocolate. Due to its fat content and the calories it contains, cocoa can be considered a foodstuff. However, it was also considered a stimulant – due to its caffeine content – when the cocoa beans were roasted, peeled, and ground, in order to be served as a hot drink with sugar, vanilla, and cinnamon. 42
Europe's first contact with the cocoa bean occurred during the Spanish conquest of central America in the 16th century. Cocoa cultivated in this region found its way to the European courts in the form of drinking chocolate during the course of the 17th century. Spain met the rapidly growing demand for this fashionable new drink by means of new plantations and by spreading the cultivation to the Caribbean and Venezuela as well, 43 using the labour of west African slaves. Raw cocoa exports from the Spanish colonies thus grew from about 28 tonnes per annum around 1650 to about 5,000 tonnes around the end of the 18th century. 44 However, Britain, France, and the Dutch Republic managed to break the Spanish monopoly on cocoa in the 17th century by conquering the Caribbean, and Portugal also began to cultivate cocoa around this time in Brazil. 45
As with tea and coffee, cocoa initially spread in Europe during the 17th century as a high-status beverage of the aristocracy, before public coffee houses and chocolate houses – initially in Spain and Italy – began to serve the hot beverage as a sociable drink. 46 The spread of cocoa was assisted by the decision of the Catholic Church to allow it during Lent, as well as by the medical profession, which sang its praises as a laxative and prescribed it as an aid to the recovery of strength after childbirth. 47 Nevertheless, cocoa only reached the broader population during the course of industrialization around the mid-19th century, after Coenraad Johannes van Houten (1801–1887) had invented inexpensive, long-life cocoa powder, which considerably reduced the quantity of cocoa needed to prepare a drink, and thus the price, as well as the time and effort involved. Starting in Switzerland, cocoa subsequently became the predominant chocolate product in Europe in the form of sweetened eating chocolate. 48
In addition to tea, cocoa, and coffee, sugar became very important in the cuisine and economy of Europe, as the consumption of these bitter drinks was only made attractive to the masses by the addition of sugar . The numerous sweet foods and cakes which were served as an accompaniment to tea and coffee were also only made possible by the modern European sugar trade. 49 Christian crusaders encountered the cultivation of sugarcane in the Middle East as early as the 11th century. In the High Middle Ages, sugar reached Europe primarily through Venice, and it initially adorned the tables at royal courts as a luxury product, for example in the form of elaborate sugar figures. In aristocratic dining, cane sugar replaced honey as the main sweetening agent during the early modern period. Sugar was used by physicians and apothecaries to sweeten bitter medicines, and it was also considered a fortifier due to its energy content. The exceptional status of sugar as a luxury product is also emphasized by its very high price. At the beginning of the modern period, 1 kilogram of sugar was equivalent in price to 100 kilograms of wheat. Only spice from Asia enjoyed a comparable status. 50
Sugar prices only began to fall after the discovery of the Americas. Portugal and Spain had begun to cultivate sugarcane in the 15th century on the Canaries and in the Spanish Caribbean colonies. The plantation economy of the 16th century, which depended on the labour of millions of kidnapped African slaves, is among the worst chapters of European dietary history. Britain, the Netherlands, and France all participated in the triangular trade between Europe, Africa. and America, raising the volume of exported sugar to approximately 140,000 tonnes per annum by 1750 by mercilessly exploiting the slaves. The massive quantities of sugar imported into Europe also enabled it to be integrated into bourgeois dining culture in the 18th century. By 1800, the annual consumption of sugar in Germany had reached 1.1 kilograms per person – a twentyfold increase since the 16th century. But it was not till the discovery and mass cultivation of sugar beet in the late 19th century, in conjunction with the agricultural reforms of the time, industrialisation and European customs reform, that sugar became ubiquitous as a sweetening agent. 51 Subsequently, sugar was the essential ingredient in the success of the modern chocolate and sweets industry. 52
The colonial trade in sugar, coffee, tea, and cocoa gave rise to massive changes in the dietary culture of pre-industrial Europe. First of all, the integration of the new stimulants and foodstuffs into European culture went hand in hand with the emergence of European coffee house culture. The first oriental-style coffee house opened its doors in Paris. the metropolis of fashion at the time, in 1643. Others followed in Venice, London, and Hamburg in 1645, 1652, and 1671 respectively, 53 and, after its first coffee house had opened in 1685, Vienna became the heart of European coffee house culture. During the Enlightenment period in particular, coffee houses spread rapidly as a public place of discussion and of sociable consumption, and they increasingly replaced the late medieval taverns as formal gathering places in bourgeois and petit bourgeois circles, even in smaller towns. By virtue of its role as a meeting place for the various social classes, the coffee house also started the process of spreading coffee consumption to the rural and proletarian milieus. 54
The integration of colonial stimulants into European culture played a decisive role in the emergence of another cultural and economic innovation, one which relates to dining culture. With the arrival of the early high-status drinks of tea, cocoa, and coffee, Chinese crockery made of porcelain also made its appearance in Europe. Again, it was the royal courts that adopted the precious material first. As it did not affect the taste of food, it was superior to tin and silver receptacles. It was also more robust and less likely to crack than European earthenware and glass receptacles. Not surprisingly, this new precious material was initially the preserve of the aristocratic courts. The establishment of the European porcelain industry in the first half of the 19th century with its centres in Germany and Britain resulted in porcelain becoming common in the homes of the wealthy urban middle classes. 55
The 19th Century – Urbanisation and the Food Industry
Prior to the beginning of the industrial era, European societies, in spite of all their differences, had a number of structural characteristics in common. An absolute majority of the population lived in the countryside and was directly or indirectly employed in agriculture. Additionally, the people – and consequently the economy and culture – were heavily influenced by local factors such as soil composition and the climate. The years around 1800 witnessed fundamental change in a number of areas; this applies in particular to dietary habits. 56
These changes had been coming for a long time beforehand, and they are also conspicuous when one examines dietary habits. The potato and liquor, which had become increasingly widespread during the second half of the 18th century, were, to an extent, harbingers of the industrial age. Other harbingers were a strong growth in the economy and in the population. 57 Processes of industrialisation certainly did not occur in parallel throughout all parts of Europe. In the Mediterranean region of southern Europe in particular, structures which were at least partially preindustrial persisted right up to the mid-20th century. However, the political and socio-economic changes of the 19th century nonetheless manifested themselves particularly clearly in dietary habits.
The technological innovations of early industrialisation manifested themselves directly in rapid demographic changes. Workers were drawn to the newly founded factories, resulting in an explosion in the population of the cities. This fundamentally changed daily dietary habits in two regards. Firstly, the density of urban development in the industrial conurbations excluded the possibility of growing one's own food in gardens or on larger plots of land. The agrarian subsistence farming of rural Europe was now replaced by a modern commercial system of food supply. Particularly in periods of economic stagnation, disease, and high unemployment, this change resulted in nutritional crises among the new urban proletariat. Secondly, the daily meals changed as a result of the new rhythm of working life. Particularly in the dynamic early phase of industrialisation, machines and the attendance clock hardly permitted any time for family meals. Eating on one's own to fend off hunger replaced collective mealtimes.
In spite of serious social problems, industrialisation in the first half of the 19th century nonetheless raised the standard of living of large sections of the population. In particular, the rising consumption of meat can be viewed as an indicator that famines and the previously unstable food supply were being overcome. In 1845, Friedrich Engels' (1820–1895) description of nutritional circumstances among the working classes of Manchester emphasized the fact that the availability of various foods was very wage-dependent:
The habitual food of the individual working-man naturally varies according to his wages. The better-paid workers, especially those in whose families every member is able to earn something, have good food as long as this state of things lasts; meat daily and bacon and cheese for supper. Where wages are less, meat is used only two or three times a week, and the proportion of bread and potatoes increases. Descending gradually, we find the animal food reduced to a small piece of bacon cut up with the potatoes; lower still, even this disappears, and there remain only bread, cheese, porridge, and potatoes, until on the lowest round of the ladder, among the Irish, potatoes form the sole food, As an accompaniment, weak tea, with perhaps a little sugar, milk, or spirits, is universally drunk. 58
While early industrialisation was concentrated in a small number of European regions, the processes of innovation nonetheless quickly also affected the smaller towns and the rural sphere. In addition to the demographic changes, the transformative processes of the first half of the 19th century also manifested themselves in an expansion of the range of foods available and the adoption of new foodstuffs. Three main developments can be identified. Firstly, the proliferation of the cultivation of potatoes resulted in profound change in the daily diet and replaced the early modern system of bread and porridge in many parts of Europe. The pace at which change occurred also depended on how readily the new foodstuff could be integrated into the existing dietary systems. It took a long time, for example, for the potato to integrate into the cuisine of southern Germany and Austria, which had been dominated by flour-based dishes. In northern Germany, by contrast, the potato replaced bread as an accompaniment to the main dish very quickly. In the Central German Uplands, the potato secured its place in the diet as an ingredient in soups and in the form of mash, which was comparable in texture and consistency to the porridge which had long been a part of the local diet. 59 By the mid-19th century, the perception of the potato as the food of the impoverished classes had finally abated, and middle class European cuisine increasingly benefitted from the versatility of the potato.
Secondly, the distilling trade expanded, with the potato and other substances increasingly being used in the distilling process. For example in Prussia. the amount of liquor distilled doubled between 1820 and 1840. Societal criticism of the consumption of hard liquor [ ] soon followed, but the available sources show that the phrase "scourge of drink" greatly exaggerates the reality of alcohol consumption. 60 Thirdly, the extensive cultivation of sugar beet resulted in a dramatic reduction in the price of sugar, which had previously been an expensive imported commodity. It became commonly used among an ever-increasing portion of the population from the second half of the 19th century.
The general European perspective nonetheless indicates that, in spite of the great innovations in the area of nutrition as a result of industrialisation, the 19th century was characterized by the contemporaneity of phenomena that belonged to different eras. While the new factories fundamentally transformed life in some places, elsewhere medieval influences and the dependence on locally produced foods, which were dictated to a considerable degree by climatic and geographical factors, persisted. For example, the gathering of wild plants continued to play an important role in nutrition in 19th-century Scandinavia. as it did in the cuisines of eastern Europe and Russia, with mushrooms and berries providing a significant portion of daily nutrition. In the well-watered regions of northern Europe and in Scandinavia, the availability of fish all year round also helped to compensate to a degree for the prevalent dramatic shortage of protein in the diet.
The industrial era initially also had little effect in the Mediterranean region. Agrarian structures remained largely intact, and older dietary traditions persisted. However, these traditions came under pressure from another source, as the growth in population resulted in a narrowing of the dietary spectrum. The diet became even more cereal-dependent in many cases. Two main changes occurred: Maize finally established itself as a staple in the cuisine of the broader population, and noodles, which had been known in southern Europe since antiquity, finally became common in the diet in southern Italy. Fresh and dried noodles made to meet the needs of one's own family using flour, water, and eggs assumed a similar importance here to that enjoyed by the potato north of the Alps. This innovation gave rise to the stereotype of the southern Italian as "macaroni eater" . 61
At the opposite end of Europe, a combination of a population explosion, adverse political and agrarian conditions, and harvest failures resulted in the last great European nutritional disaster. Between 1845 and 1849, the "Great Famine" cost the lives of 800,000 people in Ireland. It was the earliest indication of the negative consequences of monocultures. The higher yields which the potato made possible had already resulted in its widespread cultivation in Ireland in the late 18th century, which had swept away the existing dietary system. Consequently, it was not possible to compensate with other crops when potato blight resulted in widespread failure of the potato crop. 62
The growing importance of sugar beet during the early 19th century, or more precisely the production of industrially refined sugar, indicates another development which would continue to fundamentally transform nutrition in Europe: Science and technology became decisive factors in the production and distribution of food. The most significant innovations after 1850 were the application of technological advances to food (particularly in the area of preservation), the industrially standardized mass production and uniformization 63 of food by means of newly developed machines, and the production of completely new food products, such as margarine, baking powder, artificial honey, and powdered milk.
In 1840, Justus von Liebig (1803–1873) published his Die organische Chemie in ihrer Anwendung auf Agricultur und Physiologie ("Organic Chemistry as Applied to Agriculture and Physiology") , which became a standard work. 64 Liebig and his colleagues Gerardus Johannes Mulder (1802–1880) and Jacob Molescott (1822–1893) revolutionized the nutritional sciences by identifying protein, fat, carbohydrates, water, and mineral salts as individual nutrients, thereby laying the foundations for modern nutritional physiology. Building on these theoretical discoveries, Liebig established the foundations of modern preservation methods.
The French chemist Nicolas Appert (1748–1841) had already published his Art de conserver, pendant plusieurs années, toutes les substances animales et végétales ("The Art of Preserving all Animal and Vegetable Substances for a Period of Years") 65 in 1810, which had indicated the far-reaching possibilities for the preservation ("Appertisieren") of food. However, it was not until the second half of the 19th century that the full potential of the new preservation techniques and the industrial pasteurisation developed by Louis Pasteur (1822–1895) became apparent. 66 The development of the industrial production of canned foods, pasta, and jam, the use of Liebig's meat extracts 67 for the production of soups and sauces, and the invention of refrigeration by Carl von Linde (1842–1934) in 1874 68 made it possible for broad sections of the population to live on commercially produced food. This also helped to accelerate the industrialisation of Europe.
In Germany. this development resulted in Braunschweig becoming a "Stadt der Konserven" ("city of canned food") in the decades after 1850. It was a particularly important centre for the industrial production of canned vegetables. 69 The Erbswurst (pease-flour sausage), which was developed by the Berlin chef Johann Heinrich Grüneberg (ca. 1819–1872) and which was first used as a cheap, easily transportable, and nutritious food for the frontline soldiers during the Franco-Prussian War in 1870, was subsequently consumed throughout Germany. Increasing regulation of the materials used in cans, as well as of the contents of the cans, and other technological innovations – such as the invention of the sealing machine in 1889 – advanced the development of canned food, brought down prices, and made canned food a permanent component in the diet of the lower-paid sections of the population. In return, the making of homemade preserves declined. 70
In tandem with important changes in farming techniques and land usage (such as the use of artificial fertilisers and the development of agricultural machinery) and economic policies facilitating the easier circulation of goods (such as the foundation of the German Zollverein in 1834 as a precursor to further economic integration), these developments made it possible for the first time since the Middle Ages to ensure that the broad masses of the European population had a dependable food supply. Whereas around 1800 the work of four peasants had been required to provide sufficient food for one non-agrarian consumer, 100 years later one farmer was able to provide for four consumers. 71 The last large famine that was not caused by war occurred in Europe in 1846/1847. The demographic development in Europe in the 19th century impressively reflects the improvement in nutritional circumstances. The population grew by one third between 1850 and 1900, from 266 million to 401 million people. 72
The continuing expansion of the railway network in Europe and of the infrastructure of the retail trade, which further assisted an accelerated and comprehensive supply of basic food requirements, also contributed to the fundamental improvements in the supply of food during the 19th century. In the larger cities, large modern stores emerged to complement the smaller retailers. 73 Intercontinental steam shipping also enabled a diversification of diets even in the rural parts of Europe. Colonial goods, tropical fruits, and imported spices now became part of the diet of broader sections of the population.
Conclusion: 1900–1950
The enormous economic and social transformations which characterised the first half of the 20th century hardly manifested themselves in the dietary culture at all because the world wars precluded large structural changes in this area – apart from the destruction they wrought. However, that destruction occurred on a massive scale. Initially, the wars resulted in a drastic reduction of the supply of food, and emergency foods such as "stretched bread" ( gestrecktes Brot ) and turnip soup became increasingly common. 74 In the southeast of Europe, a restructuring of the dietary culture occurred in the second decade of the 20th century as the disintegration of the ailing Ottoman Empire brought an end to Turkish dominance over the Balkans. As the Turkish officials and merchants departed, their dietary habits left southeastern Europe also. In Hungary, in the southern Slavic territory, and in Bulgaria. native dietary traditions became increasingly dominant, and they served as constitutive factors in the coalescing of new national identities. The end of Ottoman rule also brought a widespread departure from Muslim dietary regulations.
The foundation of the Soviet Union also set a chain of processes in motion which resulted in the collectivisation of agriculture from the Elbe to the Urals. which had the effect of suppressing regional and ethnic dietary differences. Simultaneously, the fundamental restructuring of the societies under Soviet influence resulted in bourgeois practices losing their significance and in the spread of a culture which purported to be proletarian, and which emphasized the communal provision of food. The famine referred to as the Holodomor was a special case, which came about in the context of complex economic and political circumstances. With the Soviet regime not taking the measures required to prevent it, this disaster cost the lives of more than 3.5 million people in 1932 and 1933 primarily in the territory of present-day Ukraine. In the aftermath of the Second World War, large-scale displacements of populations occurred in the eastern part of the German-speaking territory, but also in the Polish territory. A number of regional cuisines all but disappeared as a result, such as the East Prussian, the Silesian, and the eastern Galician cuisines. Much more dramatic was the almost total demise of the Jewish culinary tradition in Europe as a result of the Holocaust. 75
The communal provision of food not only played a central role in the territories under Soviet influence. but also in National Socialist Germany. The most prominent example of this was the party decree pertaining to the Eintopfsonntag ("Stew Sunday"), which attached ideological importance to the traditional stew and introduced communal dining in the public space as a visible display of commitment to the national community ( Volksgemeinschaft ).
There was a degree of stasis in the area of commercial hospitality during the first half of the 20th century. From the last third of the 19th century, middle class restaurants had begun to replace the old taverns, particularly in the urban space, and these became an integrative component in middle class urban life. They experienced something of a golden age in the 20th century, which only came to an end in the 1970s. While the range of dishes offered was very broad during the early phase in the late 19th century, by the 1920s most restaurants only offered set meals with four or five courses. The restaurants were points where middle class life crystallised, both on work days and on the weekends, with the emphasis being on the midday meal, which usually consisted of soup as a starter, a main course (consisting of meat, a bulk ingredient – usually potatoes – and vegetables) and a sweet dish as a dessert. 76
In the late 1940s, enormous geopolitical shifts occurred as a result of the independence of the former colonies of British India and Dutch India (Indonesia), which had a lasting effect on European culinary culture. Curry dishes and chutneys had been party of British cuisine from the 18th century, and from 1945 these foods were increasingly on offer in fast food restaurants in British cities, where large sections of the population became familiar with, and partial to, these dishes. 77 Similarly, Dutch fast food features peanut sauce and chicken satay dishes besides Frikandel and French fries.
At the end of the 1940s, the way was prepared for the "pluralisation of the palate" in West Germany also. For example, the fast food restaurant Puszta-Hütte in Cologne sold Hungarian goulash from 1948 onward using a recipe which the founder had apparently learned during a period of captivity in Hungary during the war. 78 The presence of foreign soldiers in various parts of Europe after the end of the war also had a pronounced influence on the culinary culture. In the case of Germany, the natives – particularly the children – became acquainted with, and partial to, bubble gum, Coca Cola, and Hershey chocolate through contact with the American GIs. The broad acceptance which these products had attained by 1950 was a slight foretaste of what would happen in the second half of the century: a European dining culture which is heavily influenced by American fast food. 79
In the mid-20th century, the European dietary culture was still divided on the basis of social class. It was dominated by middle class habits, it exhibited regional variation, and, in terms of the food consumed, it was highly seasonal. However, the emergence of uniformity and standardisation had already begun. Maggi sausages and Knorr pease-flour sausage were already in existence, and margarine of industrialised and uniform quality was already on offer. 80 Food was increasingly sold in aestheticised packaging and could thus no longer be examined or handled before being bought. 81 Of course, hardly anyone would have predicted the trend which was about to develop. In the 1950s, consumers became acquainted with frozen food, which had been common in the USA from the 1930s. In 1958, the first ready-made meal came on the market in the form of Maggi ravioli . which became remarkably widely popular. From 1952, pizzerias 82 began to spread, followed by Spanish, Greek, and Yugoslavian restaurants. 83 The fast food chains followed from 1972 onward, greatly undermining the traditional meal consisting of three successive courses. Thus, the European dietary culture of the first half of the 20th century can be viewed in retrospect as a period of relative calm in a world of rapid change. 84
Gunther Hirschfelder / Manuel Trummer. Regensburg
Appendix
Fuentes
Appert, Nicolas: Die Kunst alle thierischen und vegetabilischen Nahrungsmittel mehrere Jahre vollkommen geniessbar zu erhalten, Koblenz 1810 (French original: Art de conserver, pendant plusieurs années, toutes les substances animales et végétales, Paris 1810, online: http://gallica. bnf. fr/ark:/12148/bpt6k202755q [14/08/2013]).
Bock, Hieronymus: Teutsche Speißkammer (für gesunde und Kranke), Strasbourg 1555, online: http://nbn-resolving. de/urn:nbn:de:bvb:12-bsb00024423-2 [14/08/2013].
Engels, Friedrich: The Condition of the Working-Class in England: From Personal Observation and Authentic Sources, London 1969, online: http://www. marxists. org/archive/marx/works/1845/condition-working-class [14/08/2013].
Liebig, Justus von: Die organische Chemie in ihrer Anwendung auf Agricultur und Physiologie, Braunschweig 1841 [1840], online: http://archive. org/details/dieorganischeche00lieb [14/08/2013].
Montaigne, Michel de: Journal du voyage en Italie, Paris 1774 [1580/1581], online: http://archive. org/details/journalduvoyaged01mont [14/08/2013].
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Notas
^ We wish to thank Markus Schreckhaas, M. A. (Regensburg / Köln), Sarah Hoechstetter, B. A. (Regensburg), and Kathrin Ebermeier, B. A. (Regensburg) for editorial collaboration on this contribution.
^ For example, see: Montanari, Hunger 1999, pp. 130ff. pp. 155–159.
^ Wiegelmann, Alltags - und Festspeisen 2006, pp. 12–19.
^ See the following seminal article on European dietary history: Krug-Richter / Zimmermann, Ernährung 2006, pp. 463–485.
^ For example, see: Köstlin, Perspectives 1996, pp. 171f.
^ Hirschfelder, Gasthäuser 1998, p. 46.
^ Abel, Stufen der Ernährung 1981, p. 13.
^ See: Schubert, Essen und Trinken 2006, p. 106.
^ On the shifting of the regions in which wine and beer were consumed in Europe, see: Landsteiner, Wenig Brot 2005, pp. 134–142; Irsigler, "Ind machden alle lant" 1996.
^ Gechter, Kirche und Klerus 1983, pp. 108f.
^ Kolmer / Rohr, Mahl 2000.
^ For detailed information on the source, see: Fouquet, Festmahl 1992, pp. 103f.
^ Elias, Prozeß der Zivilisation 1997, p. 207f.
^ See: Elias, Prozeß der Zivilisation 1997.
^ Hundsbichler, Nahrung 1986, pp. 196–231.
^ See: Peter, Kulturgeschichte 2007, pp. 81f.
^ "They lay a large silver platter in front of people to whom they wish to show particular honour. On this lies a napkin folded four times, bread, a knife, a spoon, and a fork", transl. by N. W. (quoted from ibidem, p. 83).
^ Wiegelmann, Alltags - und Festspeisen 2006, p. 30.
^ Quoted from ibidem, p. 30 ("a little bread, oaten porridge or boiled beans make up the food of the peasants, water or whey is their drink", transl. by N. W.).
^ Bock, Teutsche Speißkammer 1555, p. LXXVII ("Our peasants much prefer to eat fat pigmeat, boiled or roasted, than any hens. They say that if a sow had feathers and could fly over a fence, she would be better than all poultry and game birds", transl. by N. W.).
^ Quoted from: Wiegelmann, Alltags - und Festspeisen 2006, p. 33 ("In the morning, soup or porridge. Milk for the workers, and soup for the others. – At midday, soup and meat. Cabbage, a Pfeffer [German meat stew], or preserved meat. Porridge or milk. IIII dishes. – At night, soup and meat. Turnip and meat, or preserved meat. Porridge or milk. III dishes," transl. by N. W.).
^ Quoted from ibidem, p. 33 ("On a meat day on our table [shall be served] an appetiser which is different each day. Such as birds, game. sausage. calf's head. giblets. lungs. liver. tripe etc. – Soup in the morning, often with solid food in it and the meat of the hen or the chicken in it, depending on what is available. – boiled cabbage and turnip. Some meat from the oxen if available. – A meat stew, containing game, tongue, udder etc. – A different kind of porridge each day. – Something cured. Galantine or calf's foot etc. A double or triple roast. – Depending on what has been butchered, a piece of fried pig. rice. barley. seeds. lentils etc. – As an appetiser or main course, there may also be an ox brain, boiled or roasted. a marinated loin roast of ox. At night, there shall be two small dishes, a meat stew and a porridge. is VI dishes", transl. by N. W.).
^ Hirschfelder, Brot 2005, column 443.
^ Wiegelmann, Alltags - und Festspeisen 2006, p. 39.
^ Hirschfelder, Fleischkonsum 2006, columns 1015–1018.
^ See: Wiegelmann, Alltags - und Festspeisen 2006, p. 34.
^ See: Kisbán, Nahrungsgewohnheiten 1987, p. 181.
^ Hirschfelder, Brot 2005, columns 443f.
^ Teuteberg / Wiegelmann, Kartoffel 1986, p. 93 (transl. by N. W.).
^ See: Röser, Biologie 2001, p. 37.
^ See: Kaller-Dietrich, Mais 2001, p. 19.
^ See: Antoine / Boehler / Brumont, L'agriculture 2000, p. 245.
^ Naumann, Grundzüge der Volkskunde 1922, pp. 3f. (transl. by N. W.).
^ See: Menninger, Genuss 2008, pp. 338f.
^ Morris, Espresso 2008.
^ See: Menninger, Genussmittel 2004, pp. 139–159.
^ Paczensky / Dünnebier, Kulturgeschichte 1999, p. 471.
^ Menninger, Tee 2011, column 336.
^ See: Menninger, Genuss 2008, pp. 320–347.
^ Quoted from: Fitzgibbon, Pleasures 1981, p. 30.
^ See: Menninger, Genuss 2008, pp. 253f.; Menninger, Tabak 2009 .
^ See: Menninger, Kakao 2007, columns 266; Menninger, Genuss 2008, pp. 53f.
^ See: Piñero, Cacao Economy 1988, pp. 75–100.
^ Menninger, Kakao 2007, column 267.
^ See ibidem, column 266.
^ See ibidem, column 268.
^ See: Harwich Vallenilla, Histoire 1992, pp. 237–275, 355–363.
^ See ibidem, pp. 363–371.
^ Mintz, Süße Macht 1992, pp. 183f.
^ Menninger, Zucker 2012, column 589; cf. Mauruschat, Preise 1985.
^ See: Teuteberg, Kulturpsychologie 2003, p. 44.
^ See: Hengartner / Merki, Genussmittel 1999, pp. 231–256.
^ Hirschfelder, Europäische Esskultur 2005, p. 156.
^ See: Menninger, Europas Kaffeehäuser 2006, pp. 85–118; cf. Cowan, Social Life 2005.
^ See: Menninger, Genuss 2004, pp. 253f.
^ Hirschfelder, Europäische Esskultur 2005, pp. 170f. (transl. by N. W.).
^ The period actually began in 1765, when the Englishman James Watt (1736–1819) built the first steam engine in the world, thereby creating an important prerequisite for the subsequent industrialisation. The interplay of various factors ultimately resulted in the political revolutions which began with the storming of the Bastille in 1789, and which were brought to an end – temporarily at least – by the establishment of a new conservative order in Europe in 1815. The revolutionary phase resulted in a period of broad economic growth in most parts of Europe. The driving force behind this growth was the process of industrialisation which began in northern Europe and which fundamentally transformed traditional lifeworlds, particularly from the mid-19th century onward. (see: Komlos, Überblick 1997, pp. 461f.)
^ Engels, Condition 1845, p. 73 ; cf. Schmidtgall, Friedrich Engels' Manchester-Aufenthalt 1981.
^ See: Teuteberg / Wiegelmann, Kartoffel 1986, pp. 115f.
^ See: Tappe, Alkoholkultur, 1994, p. 55; see: Hirschfelder, Alkoholkonsum 2003–2004.
^ Montanari, Hunger 1999, pp. 168f.; 172f.
^ Hirschfelder, Europäische Esskultur 2005, p. 179.
^ See: Spiekermann, Warenwelten 2006, pp. 99–124.
^ See: Liebig, Organische Chemie 1841 [1840] .
^ Appert, Art de conserver 1810 .
^ Humbert, Entstehung der Konservenindustrie 1997; Shephard, Pickled, Potted and Canned 2001; Bruegel, Shop Floor 1998, pp. 203–247; Robertson, Mariners' Mealtimes 1988, pp. 147–157.
^ Brock, Justus von Liebig 1999.
^ Beierl, Carl von Linde 2012.
^ Ellerbrock, Lebensmittelqualität 1987, pp. 127–188.
^ See: König, Konservenzeitalter 2004, pp. 272f.
^ Hirschfelder, Europäische Esskultur 2005, p. 190.
^ Osterhammel, Verwandlung der Welt 2009, pp. 183f.
^ See: Spiekermann, Basis der Konsumgesellschaft 1999.
^ Roerkohl, Lebensmittelversorgung 1987, pp. 325f. pp. 331f.
^ Hirschfelder, Europäische Esskultur 2005, pp. 209f.
^ Drummer, Restaurant 1997, pp. 303f.
^ See: Collingham, Curry 2006, pp. 215–257.
^ See: Hirschfelder, Kölner Fast Food 1995, pp. 24f.
^ See: Kleindienst, Lebertran und Chewing Gum 2005.
^ ibidem, pp. 278f.
^ König, Konservenzeitalter 2004, pp. 269–286.
^ In 1952, Nicolino di Camillo (*1922) opened the first pizzeria in Germany in Würzburg. He chose the name "Capri" for his "Bier - und Speisewirtschaft" ("beer and food hostelry") because it would be easy to pronounce for the Germans and the American soldiers who were stationed nearby at that time.
^ See: Trummer, Pizza, Döner, McKropolis 2006; see: Möhring, Fremdes Essen 2012.
^ See: Köstlin, Modern essen 2006, pp. 9–22.
Übersetzt von: Translated by: Niall Williams Fachherausgeber: Editor: Ruth-Elisabeth Mohrmann Redaktion: Copy Editor: Christina Müller
Global Governance and Systemic Risk in the 21st Century: Lessons from the Financial Crisis
Abstracto
Abstracto
Recent decades of globalisation have created a more interconnected, interdependent and complex world than ever witnessed before. While global policy has focused on facilitating integration, the implications of growing interdependence have been largely ignored. The acceleration in global integration has brought many benefits, but it also has created fragility through the production of new kinds of systemic risks. This article provides a framework for understanding these new 21st-century systemic risks and examines the challenges they pose to global governance. The 2008–2009 financial crisis will be used to illustrate the failure of even sophisticated global institutions to manage the underlying forces of systemic risk. We show this is symptomatic of institutional failure to keep pace with globalisation. The failure of the most developed and best-equipped global governance system, finance, to recognise or manage the new vulnerabilities associated with globalisation in the 21st century highlights the scale and urgency of the global governance challenge.
Policy Implications
The rise of systemic risk requires a systemic response. Effective global governance and policy development have never been so necessary and urgent.
The financial crisis illustrated that current global financial institutions are inadequate in their policy response to systemic risk and cannot keep pace with innovation and increasing system complexity in global finance. Deeper structural changes are required, including regulatory reforms.
The institutional rigidity and profound shortcomings of global institutions apply not only to global finance, but to other looming systemic risks in the future. Neither the current global governance system, nor the planned reforms, meet the test of addressing new global systemic risks.
Global governance requires radical structural changes in existing institutions and the development of new global institutions that reflect the realities of new global power balances and address the forces of systemic risk in the 21st century.
1. Globalisation in the 21st Century
While the precise definition and various periods of globalisation have been widely studied and debated (see Held et al. 1999 for an overview), the latest wave of globalisation has been unique, with particularly widespread and intense integration of markets, trade and finance. This has been facilitated over the past 20 to 30 years by seismic policy shifts, such as the economic and political reform process in China, and much of Asia, Latin America and Africa, the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, European integration following the signature of the 1992 Maastricht Treaty, and the ideological convergence around market primacy ushered in during the Reagan, Thatcher and Kohl era in the 1980s. According to International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Trade Organisation (WTO) reports, between 1980 and 2005, global foreign investment inflow increased 18 times, real world GDP growth had increased by approximately 32 per cent and world merchandise imports and exports increased more than sevenfold.
Technological innovation has also accelerated economic integration through both virtual and physical time–space compression (Harvey, 1989 ). While the development of fibre optics, the Internet and mobile telephony, as well as exponential growth in computing power all revolutionised the underlying architecture of systems by virtually increasing proximity, physical proximity has also increased through technological innovation in transport and infrastructure. Population growth and urbanisation, too, are driving physical proximity, integration and interdependence. The world population has nearly doubled since 1950, and the urban share has increased dramatically from 29 per cent in 1950 to over 50 per cent in 2009. 1
Policy shifts, technological innovation and increased population density have also been paralleled by changes in managerial practice and accounting standards, which extended the ‘Just-In-Time’ management strategy to emphasise that inventories reflect tied-up working capital, and must be made to ‘sweat’ (Hutchins, 1999 ). This has shortened the time between the production and consumption of goods and services, while outsourcing and global logistics chains have reflected the declining significance of geography in determining production and trade processes. In short, by the turn of the 21st century, globalisation was characterised by a more interconnected, interdependent and complex world than ever witnessed before.
The benefits of global integration have been associated with unprecedented leaps in human development indicators (Goldin and Reinert, 2007 ); however, globalisation is not a benign process and can be viewed as a double-edged sword. One of the downsides to globalisation, that of increased inequality between and within countries, has been widely studied, with Stiglitz (2006). Goldin and Reinert (2007) and others stressing the need for national and global policies that enhance the potential benefits and mitigate the downsides of integration.
The existing literature, however, fails to appreciate the extent to which the current tidal wave of globalisation is different, especially in terms of the levels of interdependency and complexity and how this has resulted in an additional downside to global integration. This second ‘side-effect’ of globalisation has been the unintended and hitherto largely ignored production of systemic risks, which are ‘breakdowns in an entire system, as opposed to breakdowns in individual parts or components, and are evidenced by co-movements amongst most or all of the parts’ (Kaufman and Scott, 2003, p. 371 ). Kaufman and Scott describe three main concepts of systemic risk: (1) ‘macroshock’ triggered when relatively modest tipping points or regime shifts hit their threshold and produce large, cascading failures on most or all of the system; (2) shock diffusion through the network via contagion (transmission, feedback and amplification of risk); and (3) ‘common shock’, which is not the result of direct causation, but is evidenced by indirect impacts of systemic risk.
While historically the term systemic risk has referred only to collapses in finance, recent decades of globalisation have created a ‘global risk society’ characterised by new and much broader risks in the 21st century (Beck, 1999 ). The fragility of the system as a result of these new vulnerabilities now challenges the very core of the benefits that globalisation has produced and is a fundamental challenge to global institutions.
This article will conceptualise systemic risk in the 21st century, examining the 2008–2009 financial crisis as the first example of systemic failure of the 21st century. We will then argue that the global policy response to the financial crisis has been inadequate and reflects a failure to understand or address underlying systemic risks plaguing the economy. Drawing lessons from the financial crisis, we then highlight the real threat of systemic risk in other 21st-century challenges, and expose the profound shortcomings of global institutions to manage these other looming risks in the future. Neither the present institutional structure, nor currently planned reforms, are fit for the challenges of the 21st century, as they fail to reflect the fundamental structural changes in global interactions and the underlying threat of systemic risk.
2. Conceptualising Systemic Risk in the 21st Century
While systemic risk has been seen as a threat caused by unpredictable, highly improbable, exogenous stochastic events (Albeverio et al. 2006 ; Taleb, 2007 ), we see systemic risk as reflecting endogenous structural weakness that can be predicted and better understood through network theory, interactions between actors and through understanding the integrated nature of global risk society, where anthropogenic ‘manufactured’ risks are predominant (Giddens, 1999 ; Rees, 2003 ).
The 21st century has been characterised by the rise of network structures that are significantly more complex, interdependent and integrated than those of previous eras. Population and economic growth, integration and technological progress have facilitated these networks by forging exponential increases in the number of nodes and pathways through which transmission can occur at unimagined speeds and with global reach. While these networks involve the transmission of materials, capital, information and knowledge, recent decades of intense global integration mean that these highly interconnected networks also have the potential to originate and propagate risk. This central property of interconnectedness in networks (Jervis, 1997 ) can be paradoxical in both its structure and impacts. Increasingly connected networks facilitated by globalisation can lead to both greater robustness and more fragility (Dodds et al. 2003 ; May and Anderson, 1991 ; Watts, 2002 ). Haldane (2009a) draws on network theory to describe the two main characteristics that drive this duality, notably complexity and homogeneity.
Systems that have a greater range of suppliers and increased connectivity are more robust because complexity can be a defensive and self-regulatory mechanism for a system to protect itself through risk dispersion (Allen and Gale, 2000 ; Elton, 1958 ). Indeed, Allen and Gale (2000) show that risk asymptotically approaches zero as connectivity increases because risk sharing increases as the number of nodes and links increases. This is true of financial systems, manufacturing services, intellectual property and ecosystems. It is important to note, however, that increased connectivity and interdependence can also lead to increased fragility. Once a tipping point is triggered past its threshold, connectivity can amplify risk and spread risk instead of sharing it (May, 1974 ). Recent studies have revealed that greater connectivity decreases individual risk, but increases the severity of systemic risks (Battiston et al. 2009 ; Gai et al. 2007 ; Watts, 2002 ). Studies also indicate that scale-free networks, with many low connectivity ‘peripheral’ nodes and few highly connected ‘hub’ nodes, are more robust since random disturbances are statistically more likely to fall on peripheral nodes (Barabási and Albert, 1999 ). At the same time, however, the crucial hub nodes with a large number of interconnections are more vulnerable to a targeted attack (Albert et al. 2000; May and Anderson, 1991 ).
Simon (1962) explains that most complex systems exhibit high levels of self-similarity and so they can be simplified in their description in order to understand them more robustly. The process of simplification and reductionism, however, can increase system fragility, as has already been demonstrated in industrial and ecological systems (Elmqvist et al. 2003 ; Korhonen and Seager, 2008 ). Indeed, homogeneity is the second destabilising characteristic of complex networks and it occurs when diversity is decreased and/or when system redundancies are eliminated.
Network theory can help explain why systemic risks are complex, relational, interconnected and why they are therefore extremely difficult to predict and regulate. Increased complexity and interdependency of systemic risk across geopolitical boundaries and national contexts demands participation between countries where intergovernmental negotiations increasingly affect domestic policy (Lawrence et al. 1996 ). Systemic risk also creates a governance gap through which nonstate actors such as nongovernmental organisations, multinational enterprises, civil society and global institutions have become increasingly influential and collaborate with state actors, with this increasing role being described as the most significant recent shift in international governance (Doh and Guay, 2006 ; Slaughter, 2004 ). This challenge is one of a ‘power-play between territorially fixed political actors (government, parliament, unions) and non-territorial economic actors (representatives of capital, finance, trade)’ (Beck, 1999, p. 10 ). This power play along with the interjurisdictional nature of systemic risk has, for example, challenged state sovereignty and shifted Westphalian governance to include elements of post-Westphalian governance, where ‘deterritorialisation’ of social, environmental and economic interactions is evident (Beck, 1999 ; Held and McGrew, 2003 ).
3. Systemic Risk in the 21st Century: The Financial Crisis
The Rise of Financial Services in the 21st Century
The recent financial crisis is the first clearly evident systemic crisis of the 21st century. It is vital therefore that we learn the lessons of the financial crisis in order to manage deeper and more damaging global challenges, such as climate change and global pandemics, and to avoid a destabilising cycle of more acute future financial crises.
At the turn of the 21st century, liberalisation of capital markets and technological innovation resulted in the development of an increasingly complex ‘financial network’, where the speed, value and volume of financial transactions had increased sharply both domestically and internationally (White, 2004 ). In particular, the pace of change and innovation in financial markets between 1998 and 2007, the ‘Golden Decade’, saw the explosive growth of sophisticated financial instruments such as credit default swaps, collateralised debt obligations and an increase in resale markets for capital (Gai et al. 2007 ). Whereas the trading of derivatives had been marginal in the three previous decades, by the turn of the century the global over-the-counter derivatives market had reached US$100,000 billion of outstanding deals. By the end of the ‘Golden Decade’ in 2007, the market had expanded to US$600,000 billion, 16 times global equity market capitalisation and 10 times global gross domestic product. 2 Globally integrated markets and innovation had led to a transformation of the financial landscape. Integration and new networks greatly increased the robustness of the finance system, but interdependence, complexity and the growing gulf between oversight and market innovators simultaneously made the global finance more brittle and fragile.
The financial crisis can be described as a systemic risk that began with the advent of an unregulated subprime mortgage market in the US, which ultimately destabilised the market for credit default swaps, collapsed markets for securitised instruments across global financial systems and triggered a global liquidity crisis. While many blame the burst of the real estate bubble for the financial crisis, few examine how economic integration and financial innovation in a deregulated environment created a financial network vulnerable to systemic risk. Governance gaps at all levels of the financial system, from global to individual actors, allowed regulatory arbitrage, bonus gouging and other corporate governance failures to spiral out of control. However, these failures are symptomatic of a deeper malaise. The failure at all levels of financial governance reflects the inability to understand the deep structural changes in globalisation and how increased integration and innovation have given rise to new systemic instability.
The Financial Crisis and Global Governance
Despite increasing capital market liberalisation since the Second World War, by the turn of the 21st century governments had been convinced by new economic theory and lobbying groups that global finance required only ‘light touch’ regulation (Abdelal, 2007 ; Soros, 2008 ). Three major global institutions: the IMF, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) and, following the Asian financial crisis of 1997, the Financial Stability Forum had responsibility for global financial stability, yet no binding international standards were codified to establish a multilateral understanding of financial transparency and accountability (Abdelal, 2007 ). The financial crisis can be described as a systemic failure that began due to the absence of a global rule-making authority to oversee global private financial institutions and processes.
Global regulation had a significant governance gap that allowed for regulatory arbitrage by private financial institutions. The regulatory systems in the US, UK and other G8 countries, as well as the Basel-based BIS, fell victim to regulatory capture by large international banks, which allowed these institutions to influence and lobby regulatory outcomes to their individual advantage, but to the detriment of systemic financial stability (Lall, 2009 ). Basel II regulations relied heavily on large banks’ own capacities to evaluate their own risks via internal Value-at-Risk (VaR) models (S&P, 2008, pp. 48–112 ). Moreover, the BIS capital requirement focused on the individual risk management of each bank instead of the interactions of banks holding asset portfolios with high correlation of return. A study by Acharya (2009) illustrated that this resulted in banks optimising and minimising their own individual risks instead of taking into account the systemic effects of their actions. Basel II’s governance gap of inadequate capital regulation also led to innovation designed to take advantage of and circumvent these rules. Regulations designed to ensure that banks held adequate capital failed to pre-empt the development of new means to transfer the liabilities associated with this capital through new derivative instruments, namely credit swaps. By allowing banks the potential to offset and essentially outsource their risks with counterparties, and with misleading risk management models of their own, national and global institutions failed to envisage the situation where these counterparty risks would be sold on, not just once but hundreds if not thousands of times (Benink and Kaufman, 2008 ). Gross exposures escalated in a manner that bore no resemblance to the net exposures of the banks, with the ratio of financial company debt to GDP in the US increasing from 16 per cent to nearly 116 per cent between 1975 and 2007. 3
The rise of credit derivatives forged a robust new network that increased in complexity because of its new nodes, pathways and high degree of connectivity (Shin, 2008 ). Connectivity in the global financial network grew more complex and dense than ever before, with nodes increasing 14-fold, and links between financial stocks becoming more frequent, increasing sixfold since 1985 (Haldane, 2009a ). Haldane as well as Sui (2009) also found the global financial network had a long-tailed distribution, where only certain nodes and pathways were critical to the functioning and stability of global finance depending on their degree of connectivity and the nature of neighbouring nodes. These increases in interconnectivity contributed to robustness of the network by spreading risk through securitisation, but also rendered the system fragile to targeted attacks on its hub nodes, with the potential for risk amplification and contagion. It was ultimately the subprime crisis that triggered the financial crisis, but it was the underlying innovation, integration and interdependency of the global financial network that created fragility of the system. National regulators as well as global institutions such as the IMF, BIS and the Financial Stability Forum failed to regulate financial activity because they simply did not understand the systemic nature of this threat.
The failure of financial regulators to appreciate the systemic nature of the risks was exacerbated and indeed informed by a new economic orthodoxy. Complacency about asset bubbles and the explosion of financial markets had been justified by a profession increasingly driven by narrow theoretical and quantitative constructs which were divorced from reality and sought to explain the markets as rational (Colander et al. 2009 ). The capture of economics by scholarly ‘quants’ mirrored the capture of bank balance sheets by ‘quant’ Comerciantes As a result, during the expansion of the credit cycle from 2002 to 2007, risk management was based upon ‘fundamental distortions in the macroeconomic underpinnings of some of the largest economies in the world’ (Boorman, 2009, p. 128 ). Orthodox economists, many of whom were conflicted as they served as consultants and advisers to the US government and Wall Street, soothed concerns regarding regulatory and macroeconomic oversight. While macroeconomists rightly worried about the systemic implications of ‘global imbalances’ (as exemplified by excess consumption in the US and excess savings in China and some of the oil exporting countries) (Bernanke, 2005 ), there was virtually no focus on the nature of banking or the risks born of economic deregulation.
While global governance failed to implement strict regulation on private financial institutions, national governance in many nation states constantly pushed towards deregulation. Economic liberalisation in the US undermined the Glass-Steagall Act, and two landmark federal statutes substantially deregulated loan products: the Depository Institutions Deregulation and Monetary Control Act of 1980 and the Alternative Mortgage Transaction Parity Act of 1982. Increasing deregulation shifted power in the financial markets towards private financial institutions (Crotty, 2009 ).
As financial markets opened up globally, competitiveness increased sharply. In order to compete in a global market where nation states are subject to global pricing activity, many firms shed their territorial-based commitments to secure new investments globally (Crotty, 2009 ; Soros, 2008 ). In the absence of a global rule-making authority, increased market competitiveness between nation states created a scenario where financial standards were increasingly lowered by playing regulators off one another.
As a result, governments fell victim to their own short-term thinking, as they sought to lower regulatory standards to reap the immediate benefits of employment and tax revenues. The determination of politicians, often extravagantly lobbied by bankers, to keep and increase financial services in London and New York led to a commitment to ‘light touch’ regulation between the leading centres, and an overexpansionary monetary policy (French et al. 2009 ). Policy makers were apparently convinced by arguments that the future of their financial capitals and a significant share of their tax revenues required a reduction in regulatory burdens and red tape (Johnson, 2009 ). Policy makers also favoured less regulation because they believed regulation would constrain the innovation needed in financial markets to support further economic globalisation and stability (Espenilla, 2009 ). Above all, politicians and regulators drew comfort from the economists’ consensus of ‘the Great Moderation’, which argued that the US economy had exhibited low volatility since the 1990s (Stock and Watson, 2002 ). The absence of regulation at the level of global governance allowed for deregulation at the level of national governance.
The implications of national deregulation and a tight global market led to a global financial network that Haldane (2009a) described as a ‘monoculture’. For example, in the UK, the financial sector had grown 76 per cent between 1996 and 2006, outpacing all other sectors according to the National Statistics Economic and Labour Market Review. By 2008, over one-fifth of all UK employment was in the financial sector, which was contributing over £100 billion annually to UK economic growth and was responsible for 10 per cent of national GDP. 4 As securitisation of subprime mortgages increased, governments became increasingly beholden to what was becoming a homogeneous source of employment and tax revenue. Consequently, national governance of financial institutions and processes became increasingly difficult as banks became more powerful lobbyers as the financial services industry grew increasingly profitable.
The lucrative innovation of credit swap derivatives also led to a global convergence of business strategy and a global race began for higher risk-adjusted rates of return (Acharya, 2009 ). Haldane (2009a) notes that pairwise correlations reached as high as 0.9 from 2004 to 2007, making the homogeneous global financial network susceptible to trigger events and feedback mechanisms. As risk materialised with the trigger of the subprime crisis, banks began to raise premiums, hoard liquidity and sell risky assets below value because they were unsure of their counterparties’ exposures to risk, all of whom had the same business strategies (Brunnermeier and Pederson, 2009 ; Morris and Shin, 2008 ). ‘Herd’ behaviour and ‘irrational exuberance’ ultimately led to Shiller’s early prediction of the burst of the real estate bubble and a ‘worldwide recession’ through feedback theory (Shiller, 2005 ).
Based on seminal work in economic governance (Keohane and Ostrom, 1995 ; Ostrom et al. 1994 ), it is possible to view the global financial system as a common-pool resource, whereby the financial crisis demonstrated a failure to govern sustainably the ‘global financial commons’. Therefore, from the perspective of national governance, the underlying threat of systemic risk could be understood as a contemporary manifestation of Hardin’s (1968) ‘tragedy of the commons’, since short-term gains for one jurisdiction carry systemic risks for all. However, in terms of regulatory restrictions on financial innovation and monitoring interdependencies, international cooperation was cursory in nature. Since 2001 and the focus on the ‘war on terror’, it has principally been preoccupied with the establishment of global regulations on money laundering and illicit financial transfers. Although important, this new global regulatory focus obscured another significant systemic risk that arose at the level of the individual: the collective actions of what Clark et al. (2009) refer to as the ‘individual financial actor’ led to new and ignored systemic risks.
Circumvention of regulation was possible because of misaligned incentives at the level of the firm and individual financial actor. The incentives of traders operate to encourage them constantly to find ways to increase the volume of their trades, create ingenious new financial instruments and, because of the constraints posed by Basel, particularly to find new innovative trading strategies to offset risks (Haldane, 2009b ). The innovation of credit default swap derivatives allowed firms to outsource their risks to counterparties and effectively decouple risk from responsibility. This led to moral hazard, which Baker and Moss (2009) argue occurs when people in control of taking risks are more inclined to take larger risks because they do not bear the cost of failure. As a result, individual actors had greater incentive to focus on network growth than network vulnerability, which has been shown to lead to systemic vulnerabilities in complex biological, technological and financial networks (Saavedra et al. 2008 ). Saavedra et al. explain that much of the focus to date has been on how robust networks are assembled, whereas a dynamic picture of network evolution and robustness requires equal emphasis on the consequences of different disassembly processes, and the vulnerability of networks to specific mechanisms such as asymmetric disassembly.
Schwarcz (2008) argues that hard law and strict rules are required to reduce systemic risk since there is a ‘tragedy of the commons’ where traders lack the incentive or regulatory framework needed to limit their risk taking. However, the generational gap between traders and regulators means that there is a significant skills mismatch between young innovative traders and the older regulators, many of whom do not have the knowledge to understand the complexity of new financial instruments or modelling. Youth and innovation, motivated by mesmerising bonuses, won over seniority and rules. The national and global regulators did not understand the complex underlying systemic risks festering under these new financial instruments, nor could they keep up with the pace of their innovation. As a result, the system was overwhelmed by innovation that sidestepped underwhelming regulation.
Individual traders also may not have understood the ramifications of their own complex innovations (Jervis, 1997 ). Modern behavioural economics stresses that there are limits to the extent to which people can understand complex instruments (Shiller, 2009 ). In general, traders pragmatically legitimise their decisions based on classical economic models, such as the Efficient Market Hypothesis and Capital Asset Pricing Model to model how finance should work, not how it does work (MacKenzie, 2006 ). In many cases, as was the case with VaR models, these risk assessment models make major assumptions and simplifications that underestimate or fail to capture the complexity and systemic nature between local and global landscapes of finance (Daníelsson, 2008 ). These traders, in misunderstanding systemic risk, might not necessarily have appreciated the cumulative effect of their individual actions, what Haldane (2009b) refers to as ‘network externalities’. Moreover, even if they did understand the consequences of their actions, they would have been aware that they were operating within global and national regulations, which did not outlaw credit derivative swaps or related transactions. For individual traders, these were rational activities, even if the collective impact was powerfully destabilising.
The inability of national and global governance institutions to predict or regulate effectively the systemic risks underlying the financial crisis reflected a profound misunderstanding of the complex and fragile dynamics of the global financial system. As the global financial system became more complex, global institutions and economic analysis failed to evolve at the same pace. Among the results was the systemic proliferation and permeation of what Warren Buffet predicted to be ‘financial weapons of mass destruction’ (Berkshire Hathaway, 2002 ).
4. Response to Systemic Risk of the Financial Crisis: The Failure of Modern Global Financial Institutions
The financial crisis has triggered what is considered to be the deepest global recession since the Great Depression (Reinhart and Rogoff, 2008 ), with worldwide losses estimated to reach well over US$4 trillion by 2010. 5 The need and opportunity for change in national and global financial policy setting has never been more urgent, especially the need for increased international cooperation in global economic governance (Gros et al. 2009 ). Yet the current global response to the financial crisis has been inadequate, as it continues to fail to appreciate or deal with the underlying forces of systemic risk identified above.
The short-term response has been to inject over US$9 trillion into the global economy via economic stimulus packages, guarantees of bank deposits and taking over ‘toxic’ deuda. 6 These actions are likely to serve their purpose of providing much-needed oxygen to economies suffering from the coma induced by a credit freeze. The massive increase in government spending, however, will exacerbate national and global imbalances in the medium term, and urgently requires more transformative global action.
The response also has raised moral hazard as the biggest financial firms have absorbed their competitors and are now even more interconnected and too important to fail. Indeed, as the failure of large banks in the future would lead to a write down of taxpayers' bailout funds, they are more likely to be saved by federal rescues. This could perpetuate or even increase excessive risk taking and the possibility of more severe systemic risks in the future by encouraging loss control instead of prevention (Baker and Moss, 2009 ). The assurance of federal rescue also reinforces the view that economic policy orthodoxy need not fundamentally change, as indeed has been seen after the recent financial crisis (Wolf, 2009a ).
National policy change in the US also reflects a continued lack of understanding of systemic risk. Instead of consolidating regulation, the government has proposed the formation of a Financial Oversight Council and an additional council, which will overlay two additional regulatory bodies atop what already is an entangled web of US regulators (Luce, 2009 ). This will not only decrease the efficiency of national systems of regulation; it will also undermine effective international coordination and global policy setting by increasing complexity.
The crisis served to accelerate the evolution of the G8 towards a G20, in what has been considered by many as a major step towards a new international financial architecture and reformed global economic governance regime (Schmidt et al. 2009 ). The G20, however, remains tentative and without administrative capacity or executive authority, while the original G8 continues to attempt to assert its leadership in all matters other than finance. To date, the G20 has failed to get to the roots of the crisis or to go beyond its coordinated fiscal stimulus and focus on corporate bonuses to develop a deeper and more lasting resolution. Indeed, at the latest September 2009 summit, the G20 Leaders’ Statement offered little more than vague pledges to ‘raise capital standards’ and ‘discourage excessive leverage’ (Pittsburgh Summit, 2009 ). As an informal institution, the G20 facilitates open dialogues on ‘better global governance’ (Schmidt et al. 2009 ), but as Stiglitz (2008, p. 319) highlights, ‘being invited for lunch is not good enough’. Furthermore, while the G20 is hailed above all else to be a more inclusive form of global governance, as the article by Woods in this issue identifies, in practice it remains little more than a tentative first step without multilateral legitimacy or authority (Gros et al. 2009 ). Without the institutional structure to manage diverse interpretations of the crisis, collective action problems could derail G20 progress, where increased interdependency may lead to increased friction rather than collaboration (Schmidt et al. 2009 ). A key consideration is how to expand representation without compromising efficiency, with some arguing that 20 actors are already too many (Wolf, 2008 ). Developing global governance systems that are representative and legitimate as well as effective in managing systemic risks is an extraordinary challenge. As Simon (1962, p. 476) notes, in complex systems ‘there are generally limits on the simultaneous interaction of large numbers of subsystems’.
Global governance requires a radical structural change of the existing institutions tasked with systemic risk management in finance. The G20 has given the IMF added responsibilities to step up its supervision and new funds to pump into countries suffering the results of the crisis. However, in a world where economic globalisation has outpaced political globalisation (Stiglitz, 2008 ), even the best equipped of global financial institutions, like the IMF, will struggle to govern effectively because they cannot evolve rapidly enough to manage systemic risks. The Financial Stability Forum has been renamed the Financial Stability Board, but it still has only a handful of staff and no executive authority or inspectorate, let alone sanction against countries that ignore it, as the US has done. At the same time, the proposed reforms of Basel II regulation appear equally inadequate, with powerful banking lobbies foreclosing any possibility of a fundamentally reformed regulatory response (Lall, 2009 ). Instead, regulatory progress has focused on increasing market risk capital charges, reducing the possibility of ‘resecuritisation’ and increasing oversight of portfolio risk in individual banks. By ignoring interbank relationships and by leaving banks’ internal ratings and proprietary risk assessment models intact, Basel Committee reforms could exacerbate the probability of systemic risk in the future (Acharya, 2009 ).
A fundamental regulatory shift is nowhere in sight and no international supervisory body has done more than make vague recommendations about the radical structural step changes needed. Instead, institutionally rigid national and global economic governance regimes aim incrementally to tighten regulation to discourage complexity. Shiller (2009) notes that we should take the opportunity of the crisis to promote innovation-enhancing financial regulation instead of stifling innovation through misdirected regulatory overkill. He describes how regulatory agencies should embrace the robustness offered by complexity, and talk to innovators in order to contribute to the complex creative process and reduce system fragility. Although this is intellectually attractive, in practice it is likely to prove impractical and could lead to further instability. In a world of regulatory arbitrage, where the traders have incentives to remain one step ahead of the authorities, the key question is whether and how innovation should be curtailed. Innovation provides short-term gains, but if the longer-term costs in terms of systemic failures undermine these gains and are particularly devastating for the poorer members of society, then there may well be reasons to limit at the national and global scale the use of new financial instruments and to return to a world of segmented and less globally integrated finance and banking. The balance that must be struck between robustness and fragility should be central to the institutional response to the new realities of systemic risk.
5. Lessons from the Financial Crisis as a Systemic Failure
Lesson 1: With robustness comes fragility through network complexity and homogeneity.
System fragility stemmed from governance gaps at the global, national and individual level. The fragmented surveillance system created a space within which regulatory arbitrage could grow out of control of regulators (and most traders) who did not properly understand the systemic vulnerabilities caused by increased complexity and homogeneity. The financial crisis emphasises the need to adapt our fundamental understanding of economic networks to include the systemic complexities characteristic of the new 21st-century networks (Schweitzer et al. 2009 ). Understanding the topological robustness and complexity of a network depends on the dynamics of how these systems are formed and will fall apart, their assembly and disassembly processes (Saavedra et al. 2008 ). This involves an understanding that nodes cannot be analysed in an additive manner, nor can they be analysed isolated from their interactions with other nodes within the broader network (Jervis, 1997 ). Systemic analysis must examine nodes, pathways and the relationships between them since ‘Catastrophic changes in the overall state of a system can ultimately derive from how it is organised – from feedback mechanisms within it, and from linkages that are latent and often unrecognised’ (May et al. 2008, p. 893 ).
Lesson 2: Governance gaps within and between global, national and local institutions exacerbate systemic fragility.
The second lesson draws on the tension within and between levels of financial governance ranging from the global to the local. ‘In many ways, the subprime crisis occurred because the global ignored the complexities of local’ (Clark et al. 2009, p. 2 ). The global financial architecture of a fragmented surveillance system resulted in information asymmetry, where traders developed models that scored risk in a complex, poorly understood way which confused regulators and attracted global investors by ‘eschewing local knowledge in favour of formula-based risk management on a global scale’ (Clark et al. 2009, p. xv). Market prices therefore did not reflect the reality of the underlying risk and self-reinforcing tendencies of markets, in what Soros (2008) refers to as ‘reflexivity’. In the absence of adequate global or national regulatory standards governing the intermediation process, the innovation and use of US collateralised debt obligations allowed local subprime mortgages to be repackaged and sold globally in an integrated financial system. The robustness born out of greater integration and connectivity of the global financial network also created great fragility in the network which facilitated contagion upwards and downwards through the ‘global local continuum’ by a liquidity crisis (Clark et al. 2009 ).
These relationships between local and global forms of governance were largely ignored, the systemic consequences of which amplified a ‘local crisis’ into a systemic and ‘global crisis’. Governance of the global financial system at all spatial scales must work together to coordinate and collaborate (Axelrod, 1997 ), because no level of governance is sufficient as an island of regulatory control. The high degree of integration and interconnectedness across the financial system calls not only for vertical regulation, but also horizontal regulation that looks between and across all spatial silos of governance.
Lesson 3: Rapid technological innovations enable systemic complexity and overwhelm regulation.
In Simon’s (1962) seminal work on ‘The Architecture of Complexity’, he identifies organisational hierarchy as a recurring structural feature of complex systems. The term ‘hierarchy’, as used by Simon, describes an architectural arrangement whereby systems and their subsystems show similar patterns of connections at different scales, which may reduce some of the inherent complexity and unpredictability of highly connected systems. The financial crisis illustrated that globalisation has ‘flattened’ financial hierarchies through the growth and innovation of technologies, and that this greatly increased both the complexity and global scale of interconnectedness. This was facilitated by new technologies, which underpinned an escalation in system traffic and complexity, which was not understood by the users of the system.
The financial crisis could not have occurred without the scaled-up computing power that facilitated the innovation and transmission of sophisticated credit derivatives, automated underwriting and increasingly complex risk assessment models. Technological change via the acceleration of computer processing has greatly contributed to system fragility because microprocessors facilitate logistical chains, increase connectivity and facilitate the innovation of complex financial instruments, the underlying mathematical theories of which can be flawed, hard to understand and even more difficult to regulate (Colander et al. 2009 ). Daníelsson (2008) argues that while statistical risk models are applicable to small frequent events, such as internal risk management, these models do not and cannot account for systemically important events. In retrospect, it is not surprising that both the traders and regulators had a poor understanding of the systemic risks of new financial instruments. This is because ‘when interconnections are dense, it may be difficult to trace the impact of any change even after the fact, let alone predict it ahead of time, making the system complex and hard to control’ (Jervis, 1997, p. 17 ).
These technologies also generate shortcuts between nodes in different parts of the network, which gives rise to the ‘small world’ property by reducing average shortest path lengths between nodes (Watts and Strogatz, 1998 ). The ‘small world’ property of networks therefore has the potential to facilitate the spread of local risk into global risk. This was demonstrated in the financial crisis when the average path length of the financial network had decreased to fewer than 1.4 degrees of separation between nation states (Haldane, 2009a ). Above all, these financial instruments contributed to the financial crisis because their rapid innovation outpaced the understanding of regulators and institutional responses.
Lesson 4: Deregulation and Just-In-Time management theory drive homogeneity and systemic fragility.
The fourth lesson emerges from new pressures and homogeneity in management incentives. The financial crisis demonstrated that deregulation and the advent of innovative new technologies led firms to mimic one another and become less diverse in the pursuit of investment return. What is less understood is the origin of this approach, which has been fundamentally driven by a shift in financial management theory. In recent decades, inventory management strategy and international accounting standards shifted towards the notion that in an integrated global economy no assets should lie idle and every penny should be leveraged capital, as reported to the market in quarterly results (Hutchins, 1999 ). This was evident in global financial systems leading up to the crisis, where excess liquidity or capital came to be regarded as a curse, so that innovative bankers sought ways to gain leverage even from capital reserved for regulatory purposes. As Jervis explains (1997, p. 19), eliminating stocks and reserves and ‘tightening the connections between elements will increase efficiency when everything works smoothly but will spread any problems that arise’. The drive for returns on a quarterly basis and the quest to eliminate ‘idle’ capital increased vulnerability to systemic risk and once the crisis was triggered it greatly facilitated global contagion. This lesson is important to other industries, including manufacturing and services, where the widespread squeezing of stocks and tightening of supply chains has also created new vulnerabilities and system fragility as resilience to shocks or breakages in logistics systems has been concomitantly reduced. This is a concern in both the private and public sectors (and leads, for example, to hospitals reducing their stocks of oxygen and other vital products).
Lesson 5: Modern global financial institutions are inadequate in their response to systemic risk governance and cannot keep pace with innovation and increasing system complexity.
The international institutional framework for global finance is the best understood and most sophisticated of the global governance regimes (Kerwer, 2005 ). The unpredicted collapse of the system has highlighted the vulnerability of even the most sophisticated institutions, as profound shortcomings in the governance system stemmed from a lack of understanding of systemic risk in the 21st century. The failure of the best-equipped global governance system, finance, has highlighted the scale and urgency of addressing this challenge.
6. Systemic Risk in the 21st Century: Applying Lessons from the Financial Crisis
Systemic Risks in the 21st Century
Many of the greatest challenges of the 21st century are not new. These include the elimination of poverty and disease, the avoidance of conflict and nuclear proliferation and the loss of biodiversity and natural resources. What is new is the nature of interdependence and complexity, as more integration and more people, combined with new technology, have led to increased interdependence and fragility and the creation of a global risk society. The financial crisis is only the first of the 21st-century systemic crises to manifest itself.
Among the most challenging of the other major systemic risks are: (1) modern pandemics, which can now be characterised as global systemic risks because of their ability to reach all corners of the world due to ‘increasing multidimensional interconnectedness and integration’ (Ingram, 2005, p. 522 ); (2) bioterrorism risks, which, as Persson and Savulescu (2008) outline, are likely to become increasingly systemic in the 21st century as the ability to produce biological, nuclear and other weapons of mass destruction becomes much easier, especially for nonstate actors, with increases in population density, urbanisation, technological innovation and connectivity, both physically and virtually; (3) the Internet, which is an apparently robust communications network, but has great fragility which presents significant global governance challenges (Albert et al. 2000 ); and (4) climate change, which was a silent tsunami that crept up on us and presents significant environmental, social and economic risks to humanity (Deere-Birkbeck, 2009 ; Stern, 2007 ).
Global Governance of Systemic Risks in the 21st Century
Faced with pandemics, security crises, threats of global terrorism and crime, climate change and many other looming threats, new approaches to global governance are required. This does not mean that nation-state governance will become less relevant, as has been argued in the past (see extreme positions between Ohmae, 1995 and Yeung, 1998 ); rather, that ‘internationalisation of the state’ (Glassman, 1999, p. 669 ) will require effective governance at both the national and global scale. In the 21st century, the stakes for getting global governance right have never been so high or so urgent.
The omens, however, are not good. If past decades provide a guide, new problems will be thrown at old and outdated institutions. Global finance is the best understood and most institutionally developed of the global governance regimes, yet these institutions failed to predict, prevent or understand the endemic systemic risks in the system, and they have yet to elicit the structural changes needed to manage proactively future systemic risks. It may be that without the well-established institutional architecture of international economic regimes, other challenges are even more susceptible to systemic risks than that of global finance. This is because in comparison to global finance, global institutions understand much less about other complex, interdependent and emerging systemic risks facing the 21st century.
While ‘systemic risks ultimately require systemic responses’ (Clark et al. 2009, p. 41 ), the IMF, the United Nations, the World Bank and others are already overloaded and cannot politically deliver on their mushrooming mandates. ‘The work of the institutions has expanded yet faster than their efforts to be (and be seen as) more accountable’ (Woods and Narlikar, 2001, p. 582 ).
The pace and extent of economic and technological innovation will continue to outpace regulation, and even the best-equipped institutions will struggle to adapt to the rapidly evolving complexity of systemic risks. It is not surprising that these global institutions have suffered from a decline in legitimacy (Stiglitz, 2008 ), as they do not have the authority, the capacity or sufficient legitimacy to deliver on the enormous expectations placed on them, not least in systemic risk management.
In response to the systemic failure of the global financial crisis, some suggest that tightened regulations and incremental reform will aim to reduce the size, complexity and interconnectedness of private financial institutions, in what Wolf calls ‘deglobalisation’ (Wolf, 2009b ; Shiller, 2009 ). Although a reversal of the global economy may be possible, many of the other systemic risks in the 21st century are decidedly irreversible, complex and interdependent. Global governance here will remain crucial. Many of these systemic risks will require global coordination and collaboration, as any action taken by one country, or even a few, is likely to prove ineffective (Axelrod, 1997 ). As the number of both state and nonstate actors increases, so too will multiplicity of interests; collective action problems will surely be inevitable and contribute to systemic fragility. It also cannot be assumed that all actors will be willing participants, as the potential short-term returns for evasion can greatly exceed the cost of long-term cooperation. A lack of political will has already been seen at the macro level, with the failure of international climate change agreements such as Kyoto, the inability to come to a global consensus on the regulation of weapons of mass destruction, and the ongoing international debate on stem cell research (Martin, 2006 ).
Despite these enormous challenges, because global governance is necessary in the 21st century, global policy reform is needed to improve it and to ensure that economic globalisation is maintained in the future (Stiglitz, 2008 ). The majority of global governance reform has historically focused on more democratic governance in voting and representation (Woods and Narlikar, 2001 ). While we recognise their importance, these reforms would not have predicted or resulted in better responses to the systemic risks that were triggered, amplified and propagated in the case of the financial crisis. Governance reform of existing global institutions is both essential and overdue; however, these discussions should not crowd out more fundamental questions regarding the nature of 21st-century global challenges. Reforms should not act as a substitute for the deep structural changes needed in global institutions to address the underlying forces that render the global community vulnerable to systemic risks.
Conclusiones
Recent decades have brought the greatest benefits history has known. At the same time, globalisation, population and economic growth, as well as technological progress have created a world where growing interdependency and complexity have led to the emergence of new systemic risks. The financial crisis characterises the nature of a global systemic crisis in the 21st century. It has demonstrated that increasing linkages, technical innovation and management changes have increased both the robustness and fragility of the global financial network. The shortcomings of financial governance within and between all spatial scales, from local to global, as well as the inadequacy of global financial institutions to pre-empt or adequately respond to the crisis, reflected a failure to understand or address the underlying systemic risks.
Systemic risks do not only plague global finance. The financial crisis highlights the real threat of systemic risks in other areas and exposes the alarmingly profound shortcomings of modern global institutions. Neither their present institutional structures, nor their planned reforms, meet the test of addressing new global systemic risks in the 21st century. While the need for global governance is indisputable and radical structural changes are clearly necessary, the very nature of systemic risk and the pace of innovation have made it impossible for even the best equipped of the global institutions, such as the IMF and BIS, to govern these challenges effectively.
Unfortunately, the devastating consequences of the financial crisis have not been capitalised upon. The crisis failed to transmit into action and kick-start the fundamental structural changes necessary for global institutions effectively to govern future systemic risks. Nevertheless, growing pressure for more inclusive, secure and sustainable globalisation is likely to add to the impetus for new patterns, institutions and processes in global governance that address the need for proactive global systemic risk management. The question is not if structural change will take place in global governance, but when and at what cost ?
In this article we have not sought to provide the answers. Our aim has been to identify the nature of our increasingly connected and inexpertly managed global village. We hope it may prompt further research and debate and through this a more rapid evolution of global governance.
The authors are grateful to Felix Reed-Tsochas for his tremendously helpful insights on complexity theory.
IMF Global Financial Stability Report, 2009.
Referencias
Top of page
Abstracto
1. Globalisation in the 21st Century
2. Conceptualising Systemic Risk in the 21st Century
3. Systemic Risk in the 21st Century: The Financial Crisis
4. Response to Systemic Risk of the Financial Crisis: The Failure of Modern Global Financial Institutions
5. Lessons from the Financial Crisis as a Systemic Failure
6. Systemic Risk in the 21st Century: Applying Lessons from the Financial Crisis
Conclusiones
Referencias
Información del autor
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The first task is to define the word "fundamentalism". The term is commonly used in newspapers, television newscasts, backyard arguments, and above all in churches, both in negative and positive ways. The word means different things to different persons. I suggest that it is best to distinguish small "f" from capital "F" usages: fundamentalism as a generic or worldwide phenomenon versus Fundamentalism as a religious movement specific to Protestant culture in the United States in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries.
Generic fundamentalism refers to a global religious impulse, particularly evident in the twentieth century, that seeks to recover and publicly institutionalize aspects of the past that modern life has obscured. It typically sees the secular state as the primary enemy, for the latter is more interested in education, democratic reforms, and economic progress than in preserving the spiritual dimension of life. Generic fundamentalism takes its cues from a sacred text that stands above criticism. It sees time-honored social distinctions and cultural patterns as rooted in the very nature of things, in the order of creation itself. That means clear-cut and stratified roles for men and women, parents and children, clergy and laity. On the other hand, generic fundamentalism seeks to minimize the distinction between the state and the church. To hold that the state should operate according to one set of publicly shared principles, while individuals should operate according to multiple sets of privately shared principles, is morally pernicious and ends up harming everyone, believers and nonbelievers alike. Religious truths are no different from the truths of medical science or aeronautical engineering: if they hold for anyone they hold for everyone.
Historic Fundamentalism shared all of the assumptions of generic fundamentalism but also reflected several concerns particular to the religious setting of the United States at the turn of the century. Some of those concerns stemmed from broad changes in the culture such as growing awareness of world religions, the teaching of human evolution and, above all, the rise of biblical higher criticism. The last proved particularly troubling because it implied the absence of the supernatural and the purely human authorship of scripture.
Social changes of the early twentieth century also fed the flames of protest. Drawn primarily from ranks of "old stock whites," Fundamentalists felt displaced by the waves of non-Protestant immigrants from southern and eastern Europe flooding America's cities. They believed they had been betrayed by American statesmen who led the nation into an irresolved war with Germany, the cradle of destructive biblical criticism. They deplored the teaching of evolution in public schools, which they paid for with their taxes, and resented the elitism of professional educators who seemed often to scorn the values of traditional Christian families.
Fundamentalists fought these changes on several fronts. Intellectually they mounted a strenuous defense of the fundamentals (as they defined them) of historic Christian teachings. Thus they insisted upon the necessity of a conversion experience through faith in Jesus Christ alone, the accuracy of the Bible in matters of science and history as well as theology, and the imminent physical return of Christ to the earth where he would establish a millennial reign of peace and righteousness. Fundamentalists conveyed their convictions in numerous ways, but most prominently through the wide dissemination of twelve booklets called The Fundamentals (1910-1915).
Fundamentalists also pursued the battle through legislatures, courts, and denominational machinery. In the 1920s they tried to monitor public school curricula by presenting anti-evolution bills in the legislatures of eleven states (mostly in the South). Undoubtedly the best-known instance, the so-called "Monkey Trial," pitted the Fundamentalist politician William Jennings Bryan against the agnostic lawyer Clarence Darrow in a steamy courtroom in Dayton, Tennessee in the summer of 1925. Bryan won in the court but lost in the press. Partisans also fought their opponents, commonly known as Modernists, in the general conventions of several mainline denominations, including the Northern Baptists and Northern Presbyterians. Here too their record proved mixed at best.
Nonetheless, Fundamentalism continued to grow and eventually to flourish. In the 1930s it moved underground, so to speak, where it built a network of day schools, colleges, seminaries, and missionary agencies. More importantly the movement soon established a print and telecast industry of its own. It also created a system of parachurch organizations aimed to meet the spiritual needs of numerous socially discrete groups (youths, unmarrieds, veterans). Above all Fundamentalists found innovative ways to address the religious concerns of common people. Though it would be unfair to say that they were anti-intellectual, they made a point, as evangelist Billy Sunday once said, to keep the cookies on the bottom shelf. And they proved remarkably successful in passing their beliefs on to their children. Historic Fundamentalism, largely forged before World War I, helped to produce the massive evangelical, pentecostal, and charismatic revivals after World War II, as well as the Christian Right in the 1970s and 1980s.
Guiding Student Discussion
Few persons are neutral about Fundamentalism. You are likely to find that feelings run high. My experience with college undergraduates suggests that many students, coming from the outside, will try to dismiss the movement as narrow-minded and even bigoted. Others, coming from the inside, will try to defend it as the only valid form of Christianity (or any religion for that matter). In working with undergraduates I have found it helpful to frame Fundamentalism as a traditionalist movement, i. e. that it was an effort by earnest folk to retain a place for old fashioned (or at least what they took to be old fashioned) values in a rapidly modernizing world. I have also tried to stress the genuine apprehension or even outright fear that Fundamentalists experienced as they faced the future. That was particularly true of the evolution threat, for they saw their most precious possessions, their children, liable to be taken from them by alien teachings. The main point is that Fundamentalists proved similar to many other social and religious groups that looked backward to find resources for dealing with the troubling changes in the present.
Historians Debate
Fundamentalism has benefited from serious attention by historians, theologians, and social scientists. The most influential historical treatments remain Ernest R. Sandeen, The Roots of Fundamentalism (1970) and George M. Marsden, Fundamentalism and American Culture (1980). The former casts the tradition as an intellectual movement, a cluster of ideas about the nature of the Bible and the direction of human history forged by a small number of well educated men on both sides of the Atlantic. The latter book sees Fundamentalism as a more broadly based social and religious protest against modernity's threats to traditional Christianity. The story of American Fundamentalism and its evangelical offspring is carefully traced in a masterful work by Joel A. Carpenter, Revive Us Again: The Reawakening of American Fundamentalism (1997).
Grant Wacker holds a Ph. D. from Harvard University and is currently Professor of the History of Religion in America at the Duke University Divinity School. He is the author of Augustus H. Strong and the Dilemma of Historical Consciousness (1985) and is coeditor, with Edith Blumhofer and Russell P. Spittler, of Pentecostal Currents in American Protestantism (1999). He is working on two books: a monograph to be titled Heaven Below: Pentecostals and American Culture, 1900-1925 . and a survey textbook of American religious history with Harry S. Stout and Randall Balmer.
Address comments or questions to Professor Wacker through TeacherServe "Comments and Questions ."
First published on GR in March 2012
The study of world power has been blighted by Eurocentric historians who have distorted and ignored the dominant role China played in the world economy between 1100 and 1800. John Hobson’s[1] brilliant historical survey of the world economy during this period provides an abundance of empirical data making the case for China ’s economic and technological superiority over Western civilization for the better part of a millennium prior to its conquest and decline in the 19th century.
China ’s re-emergence as a world economic power raises important questions about what we can learn from its previous rise and fall and about the external and internal threats confronting this emerging economic superpower for the immediate future.
First we will outline the main contours of historical China ’s rise to global economic superiority over West before the 19th century, following closely John Hobson’s account in The Eastern Origins of Western Civilization. Since the majority of western economic historians (liberal, conservative and Marxist) have presented historical China as a stagnant, backward, parochial society, an “oriental despotism”, some detailed correctives will be necessary. It is especially important to emphasize how China. the world technological power between 1100 and 1800, made the West’s emergence possible. It was only by borrowing and assimilating Chinese innovations that the West was able to make the transition to modern capitalist and imperialist economies.
In part two we will analyze and discuss the factors and circumstances which led to China ’s decline in the 19th century and its subsequent domination, exploitation and pillage by Western imperial countries, first England and then the rest of Europe, Japan and the United States .
In part three, we will briefly outline the factors leading to China’s emancipation from colonial and neo-colonial rule and analyze its recent rise to becoming the second largest global economic power.
Finally we will look at the past and present threats to China ’s rise to global economic power, highlighting the similarities between British colonialism of the 18 and 19th centuries and the current US imperial strategies and focusing on the weaknesses and strengths of past and present Chinese responses.
China: The Rise and Consolidation of Global Power 1100 – 1800
In a systematic comparative format, John Hobson provides a wealth of empirical indicators demonstrating China ’s global economic superiority over the West and in particular England. These are some striking facts:
As early as 1078, China was the world’s major producer of steel (125,000 tons); whereas Britain in 1788 produced 76,000 tons.
China was the world’s leader in technical innovations in textile manufacturing, seven centuries before Britain ’s 18th century “textile revolution”.
China was the leading trading nation, with long distance trade reaching most of Southern Asia, Africa, the Middle East and Europe. China’s ‘agricultural revolution’ and productivity surpassed the West down to the 18th century.
Its innovations in the production of paper, book printing, firearms and tools led to a manufacturing superpower whose goods were transported throughout the world by the most advanced navigational system.
China possessed the world’s largest commercial ships. In 1588 the largest English ships displaced 400 tons, China ’s 3,000 tons. Even as late as the end of the 18th century China ’s merchants employed 130,000 private transport ships, several times that of Britain. China retained this pre-eminent position in the world economy up until the early 19th century.
British and Europeans manufacturers followed China ’s lead, assimilating and borrowing its more advanced technology and were eager to penetrate China ’s advanced and lucrative market.
Banking, a stable paper money economy, manufacturing and high yields in agriculture resulted in China ’s per capita income matching that of Great Britain as late as 1750.
China ’s dominant global position was challenged by the rise of British imperialism, which had adopted the advanced technological, navigational and market innovations of China and other Asian countries in order to bypass earlier stages in becoming a world power[2].
Western Imperialism and the Decline of China The British and Western imperial conquest of the East, was based on the militaristic nature of the imperial state, its non-reciprocal economic relations with overseas trading countries and the Western imperial ideology which motivated and justified overseas conquest.
Unlike China. Britain ’s industrial revolution and overseas expansion was driven by a military policy. According to Hobson, during the period from 1688-1815 Great Britain was engaged in wars 52% of the time[3]. Whereas the Chinese relied on their open markets and their superior production and sophisticated commercial and banking skills, the British relied on tariff protection, military conquest, the systematic destruction of competitive overseas enterprises as well as the appropriation and plunder of local resources. China ’s global predominance was based on ‘reciprocal benefits’ with its trading partners, while Britain relied on mercenary armies of occupation, savage repression and a ‘divide and conquer’ policy to foment local rivalries. In the face of native resistance, the British (as well as other Western imperial powers) did not hesitate to exterminate entire communities[4].
Unable to take over the Chinese market through greater economic competitiveness, Britain relied on brute military power. It mobilized, armed and led mercenaries, drawn from its colonies in India and elsewhere to force its exports on China and impose unequal treaties to lower tariffs. As a result China was flooded with British opium produced on its plantations in India – despite Chinese laws forbidding or regulating the importation and sale of the narcotic. China ’s rulers, long accustomed to its trade and manufacturing superiority, were unprepared for the ‘new imperial rules’ for global power. The West’s willingness to use military power to win colonies, pillage resources and recruit huge mercenary armies commanded by European officers spelt the end for China as a world power.
China had based its economic predominance on ‘non-interference in the internal affairs of its trading partners’. In contrast, British imperialists intervened violently in Asia. reorganizing local economies to suit the needs of the empire (eliminating economic competitors including more efficient Indian cotton manufacturers) and seized control of local political, economic and administrative apparatus to establish the colonial state.
Britain ’s empire was built with resources seized from the colonies and through the massive militarization of its economy[5]. It was thus able to secure military supremacy over China. China ’s foreign policy was hampered by its ruling elite’s excessive reliance on trade relations. Chinese officials and merchant elites sought to appease the British and convinced the emperor to grant devastating extra-territorial concessions opening markets to the detriment of Chinese manufacturers while surrendering local sovereignty. As always, the British precipitated internal rivalries and revolts further destabilizing the country.
Western and British penetration and colonization of China ’s market created an entire new class: The wealthy Chinese ‘compradores’ imported British goods and facilitated the takeover of local markets and resources. Imperialist pillage forced greater exploitation and taxation of the great mass of Chinese peasants and workers. China ’s rulers were obliged to pay the war debts and finance trade deficits imposed by the Western imperial powers by squeezing its peasantry. This drove the peasants to starvation and revolt.
By the early 20th century (less than a century after the Opium Wars), China had descended from world economic power to a broken semi-colonial country with a huge destitute population. The principle ports were controlled by Western imperial officials and the countryside was subject to the rule by corrupt and brutal warlords. British opium enslaved millions.
British Academics: Eloquent Apologists for Imperial Conquest
The entire Western academic profession – first and foremost British imperial historians – attributed British imperial dominance of Asia to English ‘technological superiority’ and China’s misery and colonial status to ‘oriental backwardness’, omitting any mention of the millennium of Chinese commercial and technical progress and superiority up to the dawn of the 19th century. By the end of the 1920’s, with the Japanese imperial invasion, China ceased to exist as a unified country. Under the aegis of imperial rule, hundreds of millions of Chinese had starved or were dispossessed or slaughtered, as the Western powers and Japan plundered its economy. The entire Chinese ‘collaborator’ comprador elite were discredited before the Chinese people.
What did remain in the collective memory of the great mass of the Chinese people – and what was totally absent in the accounts of prestigious US and British academics – was the sense of China once having been a prosperous, dynamic and leading world power. Western commentators dismissed this collective memory of China ’s ascendancy as the foolish pretensions of nostalgic lords and royalty – empty Han arrogance.
China Rises from the Ashes of Imperial Plunder and Humiliation: The Chinese Communist Revolution
The rise of modern China to become the second largest economy in the world was made possible only through the success of the Chinese communist revolution in the mid-20th century. The People’s Liberation ‘Red’ Army defeated first the invading Japanese imperial army and later the US imperialist-backed comprador led Kuomintang “Nationalist” army. This allowed the reunification of China as an independent sovereign state. The Communist government abolished the extra-territorial privileges of the Western imperialists, ended the territorial fiefdoms of the regional warlords and gangsters and drove out the millionaire owners of brothels, the traffickers of women and drugs as well as the other “service providers” to the Euro-American Empire.
In every sense of the word, the Communist revolution forged the modern Chinese state. The new leaders then proceeded to reconstruct an economy ravaged by imperial wars and pillaged by Western and Japanese capitalists. After over 150 years of infamy and humiliation the Chinese people recovered their pride and national dignity. These socio-psychological elements were essential in motivating the Chinese to defend their country from the US attacks, sabotage, boycotts, and blockades mounted immediately after liberation.
Contrary to Western and neoliberal Chinese economists, China ’s dynamic growth did not start in 1980. It began in 1950, when the agrarian reform provided land, infrastructure, credits and technical assistance to hundreds of millions of landless and destitute peasants and landless rural workers. Through what is now called “human capital” and gigantic social mobilization, the Communists built roads, airfields, bridges, canals and railroads as well as the basic industries, like coal, iron and steel, to form the backbone of the modern Chinese economy. Communist China’s vast free educational and health systems created a healthy, literate and motivated work force. Its highly professional military prevented the US from extending its military empire throughout the Korean peninsula up to China ’s territorial frontiers. Just as past Western scholars and propagandists fabricated a history of a “stagnant and decadent” empire to justify their destructive conquest, so too their modern counterparts have rewritten the first thirty years of Chinese Communist history, denying the role of the revolution in developing all the essential elements for a modern economy, state and society. It is clear that China ’s rapid economic growth was based on the development of its internal market, its rapidly growing cadre of scientists, skilled technicians and workers and the social safety net which protected and promoted working class and peasant mobility were products of Communist planning and investments.
China ’s rise to global power began in 1949 with the removal of the entire parasitic financial, compradore and speculative classes who had served as the intermediaries for European, Japanese and US imperialists draining China of its great wealth. China’s Transition to Capitalism
Beginning in 1980 the Chinese government initiated a dramatic shift in its economic strategy: Over the next three decades, it opened the country to large-scale foreign investment; it privatized thousands of industries and it set in motion a process of income concentration based on a deliberate strategy of re-creating a dominant economic class of billionaires linked to overseas capitalists. China ’s ruling political class embraced the idea of “borrowing” technical know-how and accessing overseas markets from foreign firms in exchange for providing cheap, plentiful labor at the lowest cost.
The Chinese state re-directed massive public subsidies to promote high capitalist growth by dismantling its national system of free public education and health care. They ended subsidized public housing for hundreds of millions of peasants and urban factory workers and provided funds to real estate speculators for the construction of private luxury apartments and office skyscrapers. China ’s new capitalist strategy as well as its double digit growth was based on the profound structural changes and massive public investments made possible by the previous communist government. China ’s private sector “take off” was based on the huge public outlays made since 1949.
The triumphant new capitalist class and its Western collaborators claimed all the credit for this “economic miracle” as China rose to become the world’s second largest economy. This new Chinese elite have been less eager to announce China ’s world-class status in terms of brutal class inequalities, rivaling only the US .
China: From Imperial Dependency to World Class Competitor China ’s sustained growth in its manufacturing sector was a result of highly concentrated public investments, high profits, technological innovations and a protected domestic market. While foreign capital profited, it was always within the framework of the Chinese state’s priorities and regulations. The regime’s dynamic ‘export strategy’ led to huge trade surpluses, which eventually made China one of the world’s largest creditors especially for US debt. In order to maintain its dynamic industries, China has required huge influxes of raw materials, resulting in large-scale overseas investments and trade agreements with agro-mineral export countries in Africa and Latin America. By 2010 China displaced the US and Europe as the main trading partner in many countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America .
Modern China ’s rise to world economic power, like its predecessor between 1100-1800, is based on its gigantic productive capacity: Trade and investment was governed by a policy of strict non-interference in the internal relations of its trading partners. Unlike the US. China did initiate brutal wars for oil; instead it signed lucrative contracts. And China does not fight wars in the interest of overseas Chinese, as the US has done in the Middle East for Israel .
The seeming imbalance between Chinese economic and military power is in stark contrast to the US where a bloated, parasitic military empire continues to erode its own global economic presence.
US military spending is twelve times that of China. Increasingly the US military plays the key role shaping policy in Washington as it seeks to undercut China ’s rise to global power.
China’s Rise to World Power: Will History Repeat Itself? China has been growing at about 9% per annum and its goods and services are rapidly rising in quality and value. In contrast, the US and Europe have wallowed around 0% growth from 2007-2012. China ’s innovative techno-scientific establishment routinely assimilates the latest inventions from the West (and Japan ) and improves them, thereby decreasing the cost of production. China has replaced the US and European controlled “international financial institutions” (the IMF, World Bank, the Inter-American Development Bank) as the principle lender in Latin America. China continues to lead as the prime investor in African energy and mineral resources. China has replaced the US as the principle market for Saudi Arabian, Sudanese and Iranian petroleum and it will soon replace the US as the principle market for Venezuela petroleum products. Today China is the world’s biggest manufacturer and exporter, dominating even the US market, while playing the role of financial life line as it holds over $1.3 trillion in US Treasury notes.
Under growing pressure from its workers, farmers and peasants, China ’s rulers have been developing the domestic market by increasing wages and social spending to rebalance the economy and avoid the specter of social instability. In contrast, US wages, salaries and vital public services have sharply declined in absolute and relative terms.
Given the current historical trends it is clear that China will replace the US as the leading world economic power, over the next decade, if the US empire does not strike back and if China ’s profound class inequalities do not lead to a major social upheaval.
Modern China ’s rise to global power faces serious challenges. In contrast to China ’s historical ascent on the world stage, modern Chinese global economic power is not accompanied by any imperialist undertakings. China has seriously lagged behind the US and Europe in aggressive war-making capacity. This may have allowed China to direct public resources to maximize economic growth, but it has left China vulnerable to US military superiority in terms of its massive arsenal, its string of forward bases and strategic geo-military positions right off the Chinese coast and in adjoining territories.
In the nineteenth century British imperialism demolished China ’s global position with its military superiority, seizing China ’s ports – because of China ’s reliance on ‘mercantile superiority’.
The conquest of India. Burma and most of Asia allowed Britain to establish colonial bases and recruit local mercenary armies. The British and its mercenary allies encircled and isolated China. setting the stage for the disruption of China ’s markets and the imposition of the brutal terms of trade. The British Empire’s armed presence dictated what China imported (with opium accounting for over 50% of British exports in the 1850s) while undermining China ’s competitive advantages via tariff policies.
Today the US is pursuing similar policies: US naval fleet patrols and controls China ’s commercial shipping lanes and off-shore oil resources via its overseas bases. The Obama-Clinton White House is in the process of developing a rapid military response involving bases in Australia. Philippines and elsewhere in Asia. The US is intensifying its efforts to undermine Chinese overseas access to strategic resources while backing ‘grass roots’ separatists and ‘insurgents’ in West China, Tibet, Sudan, Burma, Iran, Libya, Syria and elsewhere. The US military agreements with India and the installation of a pliable puppet regime in Pakistan have advanced its strategy of isolating China. While China upholds its policy of “harmonious development” and “non-interference in the internal affairs of other countries”, it has stepped aside as US and European military imperialism have attacked a host of China’s trading partners to essentially reverse China’s peaceful commercial expansion.
China’s lack of a political and ideological strategy capable of protecting its overseas economic interests has been an invitation for the US and NATO to set-up regimes hostile to China. The most striking example is Libya where US and NATO intervened to overthrow an independent government led by President Gadhafi, with whom China had signed multi-billion dollar trade and investments agreements. The NATO bombardment of Libyan cities, ports and oil installation forced the Chinese to withdraw 35,000 Chinese oil engineers and construction workers in a matter of days. The same thing happened in Sudan where China had invested billions to develop its oil industry. The US, Israel and Europe armed the South Sudanese rebels to disrupt the flow of oil and attack Chinese oil workers[6]. In both cases China passively allowed the US and European military imperialists to attack its trade partners and undermine its investments.
Under Mao Tse Tung, China had an active policy countering imperial aggression: It supported revolutionary movements and independent Third World governments. Today’s capitalist China does not have an active policy of supporting governments or movements capable of protecting China ’s bilateral trade and investment agreements. China ’s inability to confront the rising tide of US military aggression against its economic interests, is due to deep structural problems. China’s foreign policy is shaped by big commercial, financial and manufacturing interests who rely on their ‘economic competitive edge’ to gain market shares and have no understanding of the military and security underpinnings of global economic power. China ’s political class is deeply influenced by a new class of billionaires with strong ties to Western equity funds and who have uncritically absorbed Western cultural values. This is illustrated by their preference for sending their own children to elite universities in the US and Europe. They seek “accommodation with the West” at any price.
This lack of any strategic understanding of military empire-building has led them to respond ineffectively and ad hoc to each imperialist action undermining their access to resources and markets. While China ’s “business first” outlook may have worked when it was a minor player in the world economy and US empire builders saw the “capitalist opening” as a chance to easily takeover China ’s public enterprises and pillage the economy. However, when China (in contrast to the former USSR) decided to retain capital controls and develop a carefully calibrated, state directed “industrial policy” directing western capital and the transfer of technology to state enterprises, which effectively penetrated the US domestic and overseas markets, Washington began to complain and talked of retaliation.
China ’s huge trade surpluses with the US provoked a dual response in Washington. It sold massive quantities of US Treasury bonds to the Chinese and began to develop a global strategy to block China ’s advance. Since the US lacked economic leverage to reverse its decline, it relied on its only “comparative advantage” – its military superiority based on a world wide system of attack bases, a network of overseas client regimes, military proxies, NGO’ers, intellectuals and armed mercenaries. Washington turned to its vast overt and clandestine security apparatus to undermine China ’s trading partners. Washington depends on its long-standing ties with corrupt rulers, dissidents, journalists and media moguls to provide the powerful propaganda cover while advancing its military offensive against China ’s overseas interests.
China has nothing to compare with the US overseas ‘security apparatus’ because it practices a policy of “non-interference”. Given the advanced state of the Western imperial offensive, China has taken only a few diplomatic initiatives, such as financing English language media outlets to present its perspective, using its veto power on the UN Security Council to oppose US efforts to overthrow the independent Assad regime in Syria and opposing the imposition of drastic sanctions against Iran. It sternly repudiated US Secretary of State Hilary Clinton’s vitriolic questioning of the ‘legitimacy’ of the Chinese state when it voted against the US-UN resolution preparing an attack on Syria[7].
Chinese military strategists are more aware and alarmed at the growing military threat to China. They have successfully demanded a 19% annual increase in military spending over the next five years (2011-2015)[8]. Even with this increase, China’s military expenditures will still be less than one-fifth of the US military budget and China has not one overseas military base in stark contrast to the over 750 US installations abroad. Overseas Chinese intelligence operations are minimal and ineffective. Its embassies are run by and for narrow commercial interests who utterly failed to understand NATO’s brutal policy of regime change in Libya and inform Beijing of its significance to the Chinese state.
There are two other structural weaknesses undermining China ’s rise as a world power. This includes the highly ‘Westernized’ intelligentsia which has uncritically swallowed US economic doctrine about free markets while ignoring its militarized economy. These Chinese intellectuals parrot the US propaganda about the ‘democratic virtues’ of billion-dollar Presidential campaigns, while supporting financial deregulation which would have led to a Wall Street takeover of Chinese banks and savings. Many Chinese business consultants and academics have been educated in the US and influenced by their ties to US academics and international financial institutions directly linked to Wall Street and the City of London. They have prospered as highly-paid consultants receiving prestigious positions in Chinese institutions. They identify the ‘liberalization of financial markets’ with “advanced economies” capable of deepening ties to global markets instead of as a major source of the current global financial crisis. These “Westernized intellectuals” are like their 19th century comprador counterparts who underestimated and dismissed the long-term consequences of Western imperial penetration. They fail to understand how financial deregulation in the US precipitated the current crisis and how deregulation would lead to a Western takeover of China ’s financial system - the consequences of which would reallocate China ’s domestic savings to non-productive activities (real estate speculation), precipitate financial crisis and ultimately undermine China ’s leading global position.
These Chinese yuppies imitate the worst of Western consumerist life styles and their political outlooks are driven by these life styles and Westernized identities which preclude any sense of solidarity with their own working class.
There is an economic basis for the pro-Western sentiments of China ’s neo-compradors. They have transferred billions of dollars to foreign bank accounts, purchased luxury homes and apartments in London. Toronto. Los Angeles. Manhattan. Paris. Hong Kong and Singapore. They have one foot in China (the source of their wealth) and the other in the West (where they consume and hide their wealth).
Westernized compradores are deeply embedded in China ’s economic system having family ties with the political leadership in the party apparatus and the state. Their connections are weakest in the military and in the growing social movements, although some “dissident” students and academic activists in the “democracy movements” are backed by Western imperial NGO’s. To the extent that the compradors gain influence, they weaken the strong economic state institutions which have directed China ’s ascent to global power, just as they did in the 19th century by acting as intermediaries for the British Empire. Proclaiming 19th Century “liberalism” British opium addicted over 50 million Chinese in less than a decade. Proclaiming “democracy and human rights” US gunboats now patrol off China ’s coast. China ’s elite-directed rise to global economic power has spawned monumental inequalities between the thousands of new billionaires and multi-millionaires at the top and hundreds of millions of impoverished workers, peasants and migrant workers at the bottom.
China ’s rapid accumulation of wealth and capital was made possible through the intense exploitation of its workers who were stripped of their previous social safety net and regulated work conditions guaranteed under Communism. Millions of Chinese households are being dispossessed in order to promote real estate developer/speculators who then build high rise offices and the luxury apartments for the domestic and foreign elite. These brutal features of ascendant Chinese capitalism have created a fusion of workplace and living space mass struggle which is growing every year. The developer/speculators’ slogan “to get rich is wonderful” has lost its power to deceive the people. In 2011 there were over 200,000 popular encompassing urban coastal factories and rural villages. The next step, which is sure to come, will be the unification of these struggles into new national social movements with a class-based agenda demanding the restoration of health and educational services enjoyed under the Communists as well as a greater share of China’s wealth. Current demands for greater wages can turn to demands for greater work place democracy. To answer these popular demands China ’s new compradore-Westernized liberals cannot point to their ‘model’ in the US empire where American workers are in the process of being stripped of the very benefits Chinese workers are struggling to regain.
China. torn by deepening class and political conflict, cannot sustain its drive toward global economic leadership. China ’s elite cannot confront the rising global imperial military threat from the US with its comprador allies among the internal liberal elite while the country is a deeply divided society with an increasingly hostile working class. The time of unbridled exploitation of China ’s labor has to end in order to face the US military encirclement of China and economic disruption of its overseas markets. China possesses enormous resources. With over $1.5 trillion dollars in reserves China can finance a comprehensive national health and educational program throughout the country.
China can afford to pursue an intensive ‘public housing program’ for the 250 million migrant workers currently living in urban squalor. China can impose a system of progressive income taxes on its new billionaires and millionaires and finance small family farmer co-operatives and rural industries to rebalance the economy. Their program of developing alternative energy sources, such as solar panels and wind farms – are a promising start to addressing their serious environmental pollution. Degradation of the environment and related health issues already engage the concern of tens of millions. Ultimately China ’s best defense against imperial encroachments is a stable regime based on social justice for the hundreds of millions and a foreign policy of supporting overseas anti-imperialist movements and regimes – whose independence are in China ’s vital interest. What is needed is a pro-active policy based on mutually beneficial joint ventures including military and diplomatic solidarity. Already a small, but influential, group of Chinese intellectuals have raised the issue of the growing US military threat and are “saying no to gunboat diplomacy”.[9]
Modern China has plenty of resources and opportunities, unavailable to China in the 19th century when it was subjugated by the British Empire. If the US continues to escalate its aggressive militaristic policy against China. Beijing can set off a serious fiscal crisis by dumping a few of its hundreds of billions of dollars in US Treasury notes. China. a nuclear power should reach out to its similarly armed and threatened neighbor, Russia. to confront and confound the bellicose rantings of US Secretary of State, Hilary Clinton. Russian President-to-be Putin vows to increase military spending from 3% to 6% of the GDP over the next decade to counter Washington’s offensive missile bases on Russia’s borders and thwart Obama’s ‘regime change’ programs against its allies, like Syria[10].
China has powerful trading, financial and investment networks covering the globe as well as powerful economic partners. These links have become essential for the continued growth of many of countries throughout the developing world. In taking on China. the US will have to face the opposition of many powerful market-based elites throughout the world. Few countries or elites see any future in tying their fortunes to an economically unstable empire-based on militarism and destructive colonial occupations.
In other words, modern China. as a world power, is incomparably stronger than it was in early 18th century. The US does not have the colonial leverage that the ascendant British Empire possessed in the run-up to the Opium Wars. Moreover, many Chinese intellectuals and the vast majority of its citizens have no intention of letting its current “Westernized compradors” sell out the country. Nothing would accelerate political polarization in Chinese society and hasten the coming of a second Chinese social revolution more than a timid leadership submitting to a new era of Western imperial pillage.
[1] John Hobson, The Eastern Origins of Western Civilization ( Cambridge UK. Cambridge University Press 2004) [2] Ibid, Ch. 9 pp. 190 -218 [3] Ibid, Ch. 11, pp. 244-248 [4] Richard Gott, Britain’s Empire: Resistance, Repression and Revolt ( London. Verso 2011) for a detailed historical chronicle of the savagery accompanying Britain ’s colonial empire. [5] Hobson, pp. 253 – 256. [6] Katrina Manson, “South Sudan puts Beijing ’s policies to the test”, Financial Times, 2/21/12, p. 5. [7] Interview of Clinton NPR, 2/26/12. [8] La Jornada, 2/15/12 ( Mexico City ). [9] China Daily (2/20/2012) [10]Charles Clover, ‘Putin vows huge boost in defense spending’, Financial Times, 2/12/2012
The original source of this article is Global Research
Copyright © Prof. James Petras. Global Research, 2015
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Technical Trading Indicators
Trading Indicators: Stocks Forex Futures
When you start learning about how to trade the financial markets, whether it be stocks, options, futures or Forex it does not take long before somebody is going to introduce to technical analysis and trading indicators .
This is because trading using technical analysis has become the most popular way of trading in recent years.
Using a momentum trading indicator is one of the most powerful ways that you can significantly improve your trading performance, the reason is that it one of the very few leading indicators.
Most of the signals given by the multitude of trading indicators available today are duplicate, in order to trade really well you only need 3 trading indicators.
Once you know the trend (direction), the cycle (beginning or end) and the strength (momentum) of a move you have all the information needed to trade with confidence and accuracy.
If you want to learn more about these 3 indicators, and learn how to trade like a professional sign up for the:
One of the most mis-understood aspects of technical trading, that is using trading indicators as opposed to fundamentals, is that it is often thought by beginners and intermediate traders that the more technical indicators that you have on your screen the higher the probability of getting a correct trading signal will be.
One of the secrets of most professional traders is that they use very few technical indicators because they understand that there is no holy grail technical indicator and that by having indicators on your screen only leads to confusion.
The fact is for anything that your are trading there are only 6 pieces of real information, these are:
The opening price
The closing price
The high of the day
The low of the day
Yet somehow these 6 bits of trading information have lead to over 150 trading indicators. why is this you should be asking.
The answer is that many trading gurus, coach’s and trainers, searching for the holy grail trading indicator, think that they have come up with a better indicator, which they usually then name after themselves and often make it proprietary and sell it to charting software providers.
If you buy into the trading guru’s trading style and system you then have little option but to buy their secret indicator, which then leads to a lot of frustration when you finally realize that it is nothing special and was a waste of money.
True trading professionals know that the secret to trading success is:
Using a trading strategy that has a reasonable win/loss ratio
Using a trading strategy that has a good reward/risk ratio
Using good money management
Following your trading plan
You see in the above list there is no mention of having a secret holy grail trading indicator !
It does not matter what you trade, stocks, futures, oil, gold, silver, Forex or bonds the same principals apply, to trade successfully you only need about trading indicators max, you need indicators to help you determine some very basic information about the chart that you are looking at, you need to try and determine:
The current trend
The strenght of the trend
Is this the start of end of the trend
Are we nearing a top or bottom
The fact is that to determine some of these parameters requires some maths to be performed, on a tick by tick basis, on the 6 real data points described above, which simply cannot of done in the head and that is really the only big advantage of trading indicators and that the the resulting calulations can be displayed in different colors on the charting screen
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Tobacco
Fact sheet NВ°339 Updated July 2015 6 July 2015
Key facts
Tobacco kills up to half of its users.
Tobacco kills around 6 million people each year. More than 5 million of those deaths are the result of direct tobacco use while more than 600 000 are the result of non-smokers being exposed to second-hand smoke.
Nearly 80% of the world's 1 billion smokers live in low - and middle-income countries.
Leading cause of death, illness and impoverishment
The tobacco epidemic is one of the biggest public health threats the world has ever faced, killing around 6 million people a year. More than 5 million of those deaths are the result of direct tobacco use while more than 600 000 are the result of non-smokers being exposed to second-hand smoke.
Nearly 80% of the more than 1 billion smokers worldwide live in low - and middle-income countries, where the burden of tobacco-related illness and death is heaviest.
Tobacco users who die prematurely deprive their families of income, raise the cost of health care and hinder economic development.
In some countries, children from poor households are frequently employed in tobacco farming to provide family income. These children are especially vulnerable to "green tobacco sickness", which is caused by the nicotine that is absorbed through the skin from the handling of wet tobacco leaves.
Surveillance is key
Good monitoring tracks the extent and character of the tobacco epidemic and indicates how best to tailor policies. Only 1 in 3 countries, representing one third of the world's population, monitors tobacco use by repeating nationally representative youth and adult surveys at least once every 5 years.
Second-hand smoke kills
Second-hand smoke is the smoke that fills restaurants, offices or other enclosed spaces when people burn tobacco products such as cigarettes, bidis and water-pipes. There are more than 4000 chemicals in tobacco smoke, of which at least 250 are known to be harmful and more than 50 are known to cause cancer.
There is no safe level of exposure to second-hand tobacco smoke.
In adults, second-hand smoke causes serious cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, including coronary heart disease and lung cancer. In infants, it causes sudden death. In pregnant women, it causes low birth weight.
Almost half of children regularly breathe air polluted by tobacco smoke in public places.
Second-hand smoke causes more than 600 000 premature deaths per year.
In 2004, children accounted for 28% of the deaths attributable to second-hand smoke.
Every person should be able to breathe tobacco-smoke-free air. Smoke-free laws protect the health of non-smokers, are popular, do not harm business and encourage smokers to quit.
Over 1.3 billion people, or 18% of the world's population, are protected by comprehensive national smoke-free laws.
Tobacco users need help to quit
Studies show that few people understand the specific health risks of tobacco use. For example, a 2009 survey in China revealed that only 38% of smokers knew that smoking causes coronary heart disease and only 27% knew that it causes stroke.
Among smokers who are aware of the dangers of tobacco, most want to quit. Counselling and medication can more than double the chance that a smoker who tries to quit will succeed.
National comprehensive cessation services with full or partial cost-coverage are available to assist tobacco users to quit in only 24 countries, representing 15% of the world's population.
There is no cessation assistance of any kind in one quarter of low-income countries.
Picture warnings work
Hard-hitting anti-tobacco advertisements and graphic pack warnings – especially those that include pictures – reduce the number of children who begin smoking and increase the number of smokers who quit.
Graphic warnings can persuade smokers to protect the health of non-smokers by smoking less inside the home and avoiding smoking near children. Studies carried out after the implementation of pictorial package warnings in Brazil, Canada, Singapore and Thailand consistently show that pictorial warnings significantly increase people's awareness of the harms of tobacco use.
Only 42 countries, representing 19% of the world's population, meet the best practice for pictorial warnings, which includes the warnings in the local language and cover an average of at least half of the front and back of cigarette packs. Most of these countries are low - or middle-income countries.
Mass media campaigns can also reduce tobacco consumption by influencing people to protect non-smokers and convincing youths to stop using tobacco.
Over half of the world's population live in the 39 countries that have aired at least 1 strong anti-tobacco mass media campaign within the last 2 years.
Ad bans lower consumption
Bans on tobacco advertising, promotion and sponsorship can reduce tobacco consumption.
A comprehensive ban on all tobacco advertising, promotion and sponsorship could decrease tobacco consumption by an average of about 7%, with some countries experiencing a decline in consumption of up to 16%.
Only 29 countries, representing 12% of the world’s population, have completely banned all forms of tobacco advertising, promotion and sponsorship.
Around 1 country in 3 has minimal or no restrictions at all on tobacco advertising, promotion and sponsorship.
Taxes discourage tobacco use
Tobacco taxes are the most cost-effective way to reduce tobacco use, especially among young and poor people. A tax increase that increases tobacco prices by 10% decreases tobacco consumption by about 4% in high-income countries and about 5% in low - and middle-income countries.
Even so, high tobacco taxes is a measure that is rarely implemented. Only 33 countries, with 10% of the world's population, have introduced taxes on tobacco products so that more than 75% of the retail price is tax. Tobacco tax revenues are on average 269 times higher than spending on tobacco control, based on available data.
Illicit trade of tobacco products must be stopped
The illicit trade in tobacco products poses major health, economic and security concerns around the world. It is estimated that 1 in every 10 cigarettes and tobacco products consumed globally is illicit. The illicit market is supported by various players, ranging from petty peddlers to organized criminal networks involved in arms and human trafficking.
Eliminating illicit trade in tobacco will reduce the harmful consumption of tobacco by restricting availability of cheap, unregulated alternatives and increasing overall tobacco prices. Critically, this will reduce premature deaths from tobacco use and raise tax revenue for governments. Stopping illicit trade in tobacco products is a health priority, and is achievable. But to do so requires improvement of national and sub-national tax administration systems and international collaboration, such as ratification and implementation of the Protocol to Eliminate the Illicit Trade in Tobacco Products, an international treaty in its own right, negotiated by parties to the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (WHO FCTC).
While publicly stating its support for action against the illicit trade, the tobacco industry’s behind-the-scenes behaviour has been very different. Internal industry documents released as a result of court cases demonstrate that the tobacco industry has actively fostered the illicit trade globally. It also works to block implementation of tobacco control measures, such as tax increases and pictorial health warnings, by misleadingly arguing they will fuel the illicit trade.
WHO response
WHO is committed to fighting the global tobacco epidemic. The WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control entered into force in February 2005. Since then, it has become one of the most widely embraced treaties in the history of the United Nations with 180 Parties covering 90% of the world's population.
The WHO Framework Convention is WHO's most important tobacco control tool and a milestone in the promotion of public health. It is an evidence-based treaty that reaffirms the right of people to the highest standard of health, provides legal dimensions for international health cooperation and sets high standards for compliance.
In 2008, WHO introduced a practical, cost-effective way to scale up implementation of provisions of the WHO Framework Convention on the ground: MPOWER. Each MPOWER measure corresponds to at least 1 provision of the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control.
The 6 MPOWER measures are:
Monitor tobacco use and prevention policies
Protect people from tobacco use
Offer help to quit tobacco use
Warn about the dangers of tobacco
Enforce bans on tobacco advertising, promotion and sponsorship
Raise taxes on tobacco.
For more details on progress made for tobacco control at global, regional and country level, please refer to the series of WHO reports on the global tobacco epidemic.
The WHO FCTC Protocol to Eliminate the Illicit Trade in Tobacco Products requires a wide range of measures relating to the tobacco supply chain, including the licensing of imports, exports and manufacture of tobacco products; the establishment of tracking and tracing systems and the imposition of penal sanctions on those responsible for illicit trade. It would also criminalize illicit production and cross-border smuggling.
Para mas informacion contacte:
WHO Media centre Telephone: +41 22 791 2222 E-mail: mediainquiries@who. int
Simple Trading Systems
Simple Trading Systems
Indicator - Signal Line System (I-S System)
This simple trading system below is based on one technical indicator and one signal line which is used to generate trading signals. La línea de señal es una línea horizontal trazada en un indicador técnico a un cierto nivel que se considera como un nivel crítico para generar señales. Las señales comerciales se generan en un cronómetro de indicador y de línea de señal.
Rule #1: Go "Long" ("Buy") when an indicator crosses its signal line and moves above it.
Rule #2: Go "Short" ("Sell Short") when an indicator crosses its signal line and starts to move below it.
Some technical indicators, like ATR (Average True Range), would have rules above inversed: a "Sell" signal would be generated when an indicator moves above a signal line and a "Buy" signal would be generated when an indicators drops below a signal line.
Debajo de usted puede ver la ilustración gráfica de este sistema de comercio simple.
Chart 1: Illustration of the rules of the simple trading system:
In most cases, this simple trading system uses center line as a signal line. Para muchos indicadores técnicos (flujo de SBV, oscilador de McClellan, flujo de dinero de Chaikin, y etc) 0 (cero) línea es una línea central y se utiliza como una línea de señal. Respectfully, when an indicator moves into a positive territory it is considered as a bullish sign and negative indicator's readings are considered bearish. Hay algunos indicadores (TRIN como ejemplo) que oscilan alrededor de 1 (uno). As well, there are group of technical indicators (Stochastics, RSI, and etc) which oscillate in the range between 0 and 100% with 50% as a center line.
Si bien la mayoría de las referencias de análisis técnicos recomiendan el uso de la línea central como una línea de señal, la práctica muestra que esta no es la mejor solución en la mayoría de los casos. Es bien sabido que el precio se comporta de manera diferente en los mercados alcistas y bajistas. Los movimientos de precios son menos volátiles durante tendencias alcistas y más volátiles durante tendencias bajistas. Las tendencias alcistas suelen ser más prolongadas en el tiempo si las comparas con las tendencias bajistas. Las reversiones de tendencia son más fuertes y más rápidas en el soporte que en los niveles de resistencia. Además, sería lógico asumir que la línea de señal en este sistema comercial simple puede no necesariamente estar ubicada en el nivel medio.
We scan thousands combinations of various indicators settings and signal line levels to find the best system's setting for a particular stock, indicator and time-frame. Este sistema comercial simple se basa en dos reglas solamente y es hasta usted, un comerciante, para modificarlo para requisitos particulares a sus preferencias comerciales - fije reglas adicionales e incorpore indicadores adicionales.
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Using Volume Indicators To Improve Trading
Price and volume are the two basic building blocks for technical analysis. This article will discuss the 3 main volume indicators and how to use them to improve your trading.
First, exactly what is volume as it applies to the market? Volume is the total number of shares/contracts traded within a specified timeframe. The higher the volume, the greater the liquidity. Generally, the higher the liquidity the lower the volatility, with volatility being the size of price moves. Higher the volatility, the less the liquidity in most situations.
Haga clic aquí para pedir su copia de The VXX Trend siguiente estrategia hoy y ser uno de los primeros comerciantes para utilizar estas estrategias únicas. Esta guía te hará un comerciante mejor y más poderoso.
In the most basic form, traders like to see volume slowly increasing in the direction of a trend. A volume spike can indicate the end of a trend and declining volume can reflect a soon to die move. I believe the 3 primary volume indicators are: On Balance Volume, Accumulation/Distribution Line, and Ease of Movement. The following is a brief description and example of how you can use each one to improve your trading.
On Balance Volume or OBV: Joseph Granville is credited with creating this volume indicator tool in his 1963 book. “New Key To Stock Market Profits.” It remains one of the most popular volume indicators to this day. Its function is to measure positive and negative volume, displaying it in graph form so that the trader can determine if money is flowing into or out of a stock or contract.
The underlying logic is extremely simple, it adds a period’s volume when the close is up and subtracts a period’s volume when the close is down. These figures are charted to create the OBV line which is compared and contrasted to price to find confirmations and divergences. The theory being that volume changes will pave the way for price changes. A rising OBV line and increasing prices confirms a strong trend. However, a falling OBV line and rising prices is thought to indicate a weak or soon to fail trend.
Here is an example of OBV in action. The stock is ^C^, and you can see how price trended down in March, up in April and then down in May/June. Note how the OBV line follows price in both rising and falling markets.
Accumulation/Distribution Line: This indicator was created by Technical Analysis Marc Chaiken. It attempts to measure money flow into and out of stocks/contracts. The difference between OBV and the A/D line is it takes opening and closing prices into the calculation ( range). The calculation is (close-low) – (high-close)/(high-low) X volume in the period. This figure is then plotted in line graph form, similar to the OBV indicator. It’s generally used as a divergence indicator. A bearish signal is given when the A/D line is moving downward, yet price is moving up. Bullish indication would be an upward movement of the A/D line combined with a declining price. The primary issue with the A/D line is it doesn’t reflect price gaps. A stock that gaps then closes within the range will not be shown in the A/D line. Even a series of such gaps will not be indicated with this volume indicator.
In this example of ^FSCI^. FSCI, you can see the A/D line trending downward, yet price is moving up. This is a bearish signal, and traders who follow this indicator would consider shorting here.
Ease of Movement EOM: This indicator reflects the amount of volume that is required to move price. It was developed by Richard Arms to show the relationship between volume and price change. Arms is more widely recognized as the creator of the Arms index or TRIN.
EOM is plotted on a graph with a midpoint of zero. It is graphed in line format and normally smoothed with a 14 day moving average. When price is moving up on light volume, Ease of Movement indicator shows high values above zero. Low values are shown when price is moving downward on light volume. If it takes lots of volume to move price, the indicator stays near zero. Signals are given to go long when the EOM line crosses above zero and short when it crosses below zero.
David Goodboy is Vice President of Marketing for a New York City based multi-strategy fund.
Nurol Technologies Inc. with it’s most modern and fully automated production facility which is located in Ankara, designing and manufacturing ‘Advanced Technical Materials' regarded as the 21th century’s technology since 2008.
Nurol Technologies Inc. is equipped with the necessary infrastructure for the production of nano-technology, and also has facilities used in high technology product in accordance with specifications. Our company, which is the only source of our country and our region, offers products in line with the needs of the sector by developing customized solutions to our customers. Nurol Technologies Inc. Serves both local and global markets with almost 100 employees.
The manufacturing site is equipped with the most modern and fully automated equipment, including systems that can sinter and hot press up to 2400 °C, multiple huge continuous furnaces up to 1700 °C, vacuum furnaces, reaction bonded systems, autoclave owen, high-tonnage presses and other technological equipment and facilities at every stage of production takes advantage of the latest technology. Also many other machineries together with a fully equipped quality control laboratory for serving our customers for the most advanced, high quality, most economical technical ceramic products.
Nurol Technologies Inc. has been assessed and certified as meeting the requirements of ISO 9001-2000 Quality Management System and ISO 14001 Environmental Management System. And also our company has ‘Nato Confidential’ and ‘National Confidential’ Confidentiality Level Facility Security Certificate and Production Permit.
Nurol Technologies Inc. guarantees quality, reliability and high performance of the product within the laboratory equipped with most modern advanced technology.
Our laboratory has all required equipment for quality control, product demonstration, technical analysis and research & development activities. Our Ballistical Test Laboratory has became operational in 2011.
Our company aims to increased its share of the sector to meet the needs of the various armor and the local contribution in the defense industry. Hybrid armor systems were originally designed and produced by our company, and we proudly offer to domestic and foreign security forces for their usage.
Some of our projects and applications;
Nurol Technologies apply composite armor to the President‘s Residence in Çankaya/ Ankara,
Meet the armoring needs of Prime Ministry of the Republic of Turkey,
Meet the needs of ballistic protection personel vests sets for the Turkish Armed Forces’ Special Forces Personnels,
A project carried out at the Undersecretary of Defense; Armoring the national battleship (MILGEM)
Meet the needs of ballistics protective shields and shilelds sets of Turkish National Police,
Armoring of the General Command of Gendarmerie’s Armored Personnel Carriers,
General Command of Gendarmerie’s sentry-box/cabinet armoring,
Republic of Turkey, Turkish International Cooperation and Coordination Agency (TIKA), Tunisia, under the project, to ensure the needs of security vehicles and materials,
Nurol Technologies Inc. is also manufacturing advanced ballistic armors for the locomotive cabines and railway cars of the Turkish Republic of National Railways,
Armoring of civilian vehicles,
Nurol Technologies Inc. has designed and produced the “Thermal Vacuum Chamber” in order to perform
“Thermal Balance “ and “Thermal Vacuum Cycling, Verification and Reliability ” tests in accordance with the contract signed between Nurol Technologies and TUSAŞ. Nurol Technologies Inc. through its production capacity, flexible manufacturing ability, raw material options, product diversity and know-how is capable of satisfying different industries.
Some of References
Turkish Republic Presidential Palace
Turkish Republic Prime Ministry
Turkish Republic Ministry
Turkish Armed Forces Foundation
Turkish National Police
Republic of Turkey The National Railways
Ministry of National Defence, Undersecretariat for Defence Industries. (SSM)
Defense Technologies Engineering and Trading Co. (STM)
Turkish Aerospace Industries Inc. (TAI)
Aselsan Inc.
FNSS Savunma Sistemleri A. Ş.
Roketsan Inc.
Iraqi Parliament
Military uniforms and accesssories factory
Various Mining and Machinery of Companies
AMBIO: A Journal of the Human Environment
Oene Oenema 1 and Stefan Pietrzak 2
Oene Oenema is research leader of environmental assessment studies and part-time professor in soil fertility and nutrient management at Wageningen University and Research Center. His address: Wageningen University and Research Center, Wageningen, Alterra, P. O. Box 47, NL-6700 AA Wageningen, The Netherlands. O. Oenema@alterra. wag-ur. nl
Stefan Pietrzak is research leader in nutrient management studies at the Institute for Land Reclamation and Grassland Farming at Falenty. His address: Institute for Land Reclamation and Grassland Farming at Falenty, 05-090 Raszyn, Poland. S. Pietrzak@imuz. edu. pl
Abstracto
The notion of management has undergone many changes during the past century. Nowadays, management is perceived as “specialized activity to achieve targets.” Skill in management is the single most important factor determining the economic and environmental performance of agroecosystems. Nutrient management is “management of nutrients to achieve agronomic and environmental targets;” it requires proper understanding of nutrient cycling, site - and farm-specific guidelines and technology, and often direct coaching. These activities are diverse and complicated, especially in mixed farming systems that involve both crop and animal production. To be effective, economic and environmental targets must be coherent, flexible, and controllable. They also must be defined and implemented quantitatively at strategic, tactical, and operational levels. Data from farms in Poland and The Netherlands are used to show how economic incentives, provided through governmental policies and measures in both countries, can improve nutrient-use efficiency by a factor of 2 on many intensively managed mixed farming systems.
Cited by
Cathal Buckley, David P. Wall, Brian Moran, Stephen O'Neill, Paul N. C. Murphy. (2016) Phosphorus management on Irish dairy farms post controls introduced under the EU Nitrates Directive. Agricultural Systems 142 . 1-8. Online publication date: 1 - Feb - 2016 . CrossRef
Cathal Buckley, David P. Wall, Brian Moran, Stephen O’Neill, Paul N. C. Murphy. (2016) Farm gate level nitrogen balance and use efficiency changes post implementation of the EU Nitrates Directive. Nutrient Cycling in Agroecosystems 104 . 1-13. Online publication date: 1 - Jan - 2016 . CrossRef
Cathal Buckley, David P. Wall, Brian Moran, Paul N. C. Murphy. (2015) Developing the EU Farm Accountancy Data Network to derive indicators around the sustainable use of nitrogen and phosphorus at farm level. Nutrient Cycling in Agroecosystems 102 . 319-333. Online publication date: 1 - Jul - 2015 . CrossRef
ShuMei Cai, HaiTao Zhu, JuanJuan Wang, TingYuan Yu, Xiaoqing Qian, Yuhua Shan, Jilin Tian. (2015) Fertilization Impacts on Green Leafy Vegetables Supplied with Slow Release Nitrogen Fertilizers. Journal of Plant Nutrition . 00-00. Online publication date: 11 - Jun - 2015 . CrossRef
María Pérez Urdiales, Alfons Oude Lansink, Alan Wall. (2015) Eco-efficiency Among Dairy Farmers: The Importance of Socio-economic Characteristics and Farmer Attitudes. Environmental and Resource Economics . Online publication date: 20 - Feb - 2015 . CrossRef
J. N. Galloway. 2014. The Global Nitrogen Cycle. Treatise on Geochemistry, 475-498. CrossRef
Mustapha El-Maayar, Manfred Lange. (2013) A Methodology to Infer Crop Yield Response to Climate Variability and Change Using Long-Term Observations. Atmosphere 4 . 365-382. Online publication date: 1 - Dec - 2013 . CrossRef
Aisha Abdulkadir, Peter A. Leffelaar, John O. Agbenin, Ken Everlyn Giller. (2013) Nutrient flows and balances in urban and peri-urban agroecosystems of Kano, Nigeria. Nutrient Cycling in Agroecosystems 95 . 231-254. Online publication date: 1 - Mar - 2013 . CrossRef
Nathaniel D. Mueller, James S. Gerber, Matt Johnston, Deepak K. Ray, Navin Ramankutty, Jonathan A. Foley. (2012) Closing yield gaps through nutrient and water management. Nature 490 . 254-257. Online publication date: 29 - Aug - 2012 . CrossRef
Elena Ramírez, Dirk Reheul. (2010) Variables influencing nitrogen surplus of dairy farms in Flanders. Agronomy for Sustainable Development 30 . 789-795. Online publication date: 1 - Dec - 2010 . CrossRef
R. V. C. Diogo, A. Buerkert, E. Schlecht. (2010) Resource use efficiency in urban and peri-urban sheep, goat and cattle enterprises. animal 4 . 1725-1738. Online publication date: 1 - Oct - 2010 . CrossRef
C. M. Williams, J.-S. Eun, C. M. Dschaak, J. W. MacAdam, B. R. Min, A. J. Young. (2010) CASE STUDY: In Vitro Ruminal Fermentation Characteristics of Birdsfoot Trefoil (Lotus corniculatus L.) Hay in Continuous Cultures1. The Professional Animal Scientist 26 . 570-576. Online publication date: 1 - Oct - 2010 . CrossRef
T. V. Vellinga, G. André, R. L. M. Schils, T. Kraak, O. Oenema. (2010) Accounting for residual effects of previously applied nitrogen fertilizer on intensively managed grasslands. Grass and Forage Science 65 :10.1111/gfs.2010.65.issue-1, 58-75. Online publication date: 1 - Mar - 2010 . CrossRef
Graham K. MacDonald, Elena M. Bennett. (2009) Phosphorus Accumulation in Saint Lawrence River Watershed Soils: A Century-Long Perspective. Ecosystems 12 . 621-635. Online publication date: 1 - Jun - 2009 . CrossRef
Elena Ramírez, Dirk Reheul. (2009) Statistical modelling of nitrogen use efficiency of dairy farms in Flanders. Agronomy for Sustainable Development 29 . 339-352. Online publication date: 1 - Apr - 2009 . CrossRef
H. Arriaga, M. Pinto, S. Calsamiglia, P. Merino. (2009) Nutritional and management strategies on nitrogen and phosphorus use efficiency of lactating dairy cattle on commercial farms: An environmental perspective. Journal of Dairy Science 92 . 204-215. Online publication date: 1 - Jan - 2009 . CrossRef
Wenqi Ma, Jianhui Li, Lin Ma, Fanghao Wang, István Sisák, Gregory Cushman, Fusuo Zhang. (2008) Nitrogen flow and use efficiency in production and utilization of wheat, rice, and maize in China. Agricultural Systems 99 . 53-63. Online publication date: 1 - Dec - 2008 . CrossRef
F. Nevens, I. Verbruggen, D. Reheul, G. Hofman. (2006) Farm gate nitrogen surpluses and nitrogen use efficiency of specialized dairy farms in Flanders: Evolution and future goals. Agricultural Systems 88 . 142-155. Online publication date: 1 - Jun - 2006 . CrossRef
Jeroen C. J. Groot, Walter A. H. Rossing, Egbert A. Lantinga. (2006) Evolution of farm management, nitrogen efficiency and economic performance on Dutch dairy farms reducing external inputs. Livestock Science 100 . 99-110. Online publication date: 1 - Apr - 2006 . CrossRef
JAMES N. GALLOWAY, JOHN D. ABER, JAN WILLEM ERISMAN, SYBIL P. SEITZINGER, ROBERT W. HOWARTH, ELLIS B. COWLING, and B. JACK COSBY. (2003) The Nitrogen Cascade. BioScience 53 :4, 341-356. Online publication date: 19 - Jan - 2009 .
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J. Galloway, E. Cowling, O. Oenema, R. Roy, and V. Smil. (2002) Response to the Comment by Artur Granstedt . AMBIO: A Journal of the Human Environment 31 :6, 497-498. Online publication date: 11 - Mar - 2009 .
Artur Granstedt. (2002) Optimizing Nitrogen Management in Food and Energy Production, and Environment Change. AMBIO: A Journal of the Human Environment 31 :6, 496-497. Online publication date: 11 - Mar - 2009 .
James N. Galloway and Ellis B. Cowling. (2002) Reactive Nitrogen and The World: 200 Years of Change. AMBIO: A Journal of the Human Environment 31 :2, 64-71. Online publication date: 11 - Mar - 2009 .
James N. Galloway, Ellis B. Cowling, Sybil P. Seitzinger, and Robert H. Socolow. (2002) Reactive Nitrogen: Too Much of a Good Thing. AMBIO: A Journal of the Human Environment 31 :2, 60-63. Online publication date: 11 - Mar - 2009 .
Amir H. Wolfe and Jonathan A. Patz. (2002) Reactive Nitrogen and Human Health:Acute and Long-term Implications. AMBIO: A Journal of the Human Environment 31 :2, 120-125. Online publication date: 11 - Mar - 2009 .
Nancy N. Rabalais. (2002) Nitrogen in Aquatic Ecosystems. AMBIO: A Journal of the Human Environment 31 :2, 102-112. Online publication date: 11 - Mar - 2009 .
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“A nation, therefore, has no right to say to a province: You belong to me, I want to take you. A province consists of its inhabitants. If anybody has a right to be heard in this case it is these inhabitants. Boundary disputes should be settled by plebiscite.” ― Ludwig von Mises
Secession Movements Intensify
All the attention over the epoch vote by Crimean’s to leave the Ukraine makes for a timely review of other separatist factions that are seeking a similar resolution. The List of active separatist movements in Europe is exhaustive. The immediate impression is that a pervasive discontent, shared by legions of subjects, who want independence and self-determination, will be hard to derail. When European autocratic and aristocrats ruled, the only option was revolution. Today the descendants of the old regimes still wheeled power under the guise of democratically elected authorities. However, separatist sentiment does not mean the same to every splinter group.
Examine Europe's Latest Secession Movement: Venice . for a telling indicator.
"An organization representing a coalition of Venetian nationalist groups, held an unofficial referendum on breaking with Rome. Voters were first asked the main question -"Do you want Veneto to become an independent and sovereign federal republic?" - followed by three sub-questions on membership in the European Union, NATO, and the eurozone.
As the referendum's organizers announced the results: 2,102,969 votes in favor of independence—a whopping 89 percent of all ballots cast—to 257,266 votes against. Venetians also said yes to joining NATO, the EU, and the eurozone."
Note the significance of wanting to be part of NATO and the EU.
Next, look at the more widely reported effort, in the land of "Braveheart" William Wallace. Scottish secession remains unlikely, but momentum is with the schismatics provides a more stately viewpoint from the Commonwealth.
"After months of comfort for the pro-unionist ‘Better Together’ campaign, the most recent polls point to a tighter race with 40 percent of Scots supporting secession. With six months to go, the momentum appears to be with those seeking an amicable divorce.
Scottish independence would not lead to a republic. Queen Elizabeth II (I of Scotland) would remain head of state, a smart move by the ‘Yes’ campaign to de-radicalize independence and make the electorate feel more comfortable with a vote for change. The debate has therefore become more focused on incrementalism, with plans for an independent Scotland retaining both membership of NATO and the European Union, a common currency with the rest of the UK, and open borders."
A video from the Carnegie Council gives a spin in Which Separatist Movements Will Succeed . which plays down the urgent motivation for "FREEDOM" for an evolutionary approach.
An essay out of Wharton, Is Secession the Answer? The Case of Catalonia, Flanders and Scotland . points out the obvious, while illustrating the problematic.
"It may seem paradoxical in an age of global communications, but the revival of regionalism "is a global phenomenon," notes Jacob Funk Kierkegaard, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, a Washington, D. C. think tank. Today’s high-speed technologies, including the Internet, "enable people to start a campaign and get out their message" quickly and repeatedly to like-minded people who might have harbored such desires in private.
Beyond its unique constitutional challenges, Catalonia faces another hurdle: The eurozone has a de facto veto over its independence. "If Catalonia becomes independent, will they [still] be part of the eurozone?" Kierkegaard asks, adding that, if Catalonia votes to secede, the EU response could be that "you will have to issue your own currency, and your banks will have no access to the European Central Bank. You won’t automatically have a seat on the ECB governing council."
The Spanish situation . by contrast, the establishment would have you believe the militant Basques ETA nationalists harbor violent resolve. The YouTube Thousands March In Spain In Support Of ETA . reports that the EU labels this movement as terrorists. Therefore, it comes as no surprise that the Catalan Sovereignty Claim Blocked by Spain Constitutional Court . is but a spillover effort to discredit the Catalonia’s claim. "Sovereignty is "not contemplated in our constitution for nationalities and regions that make up the state" and no one can break the principle of the "indissoluble unity of the Spanish Nation," the ruling said.
Such illustrations, all exhibit unique local concerns and grievances, while sharing a basic distrust of national authority. What stands out is an anserine eagerness to remain part of the EU and NATO. This factor may be a distinctively European trait, which seems to be lacking in the proper understanding that the surrender of national authority to a body of central banksters, social technocrats and empire military mercenaries, is the fundamental cause of popular dissatisfaction.
Pat Buchanan in the article, Is Red State America Seceding? . provides numerous other European examples of discontent, then goes on to cite secession initiatives in the United States. It is striking that our countries unique experience has a shape difference from the blue-blooded patricians’ clashes that mark the history of Europe. Because of this difference, the indigenous cultures on the continent have never developed the same passion of individual liberty, which is inborn in the American revolutionary spirit.
Applying the same principles defended in the View from the Mount essay, Secession Movement Ready to Take Hold . would serve our European cousins well, in breaking up the EU and their NWO oppression.
"Governments fall, while a consensual nation state can still survive. With the destruction of an accepted traditionalistic national identity, time-honored heritage becomes the target of dictatorial "do gooders" who facilitate subjugation of independent self-governing states.
Blowing out the candles of federal absolutism is the imperative of our age. Secession is not a dirty word, but is an indispensable solution. Dissolving the union of the suppressed, under the auspices of the subverted elite, is the path to social freedom and human liberty."
Libertarian and author L. Neil Smith argues, "What happened in America in the 1860s was a war of secession, a war of independence, no different in principle from what happened in America in the 1770s and 1780s." Compare most of the secession movements in the 21th century as half measure efforts that are not willing to take on the yoke of the globalist central banking financial system. The lessons presented in the Radical Reactionary article, Representation, Secession and Taxation . should be applied and adopted by the European secession movements.
"As discontent rises and practical solutions evaporate, that dirty historic sentiment begins to bubble to the surface, SECESSION. Russell D. Longcore provides a standard, when secession is a vital and justified option that many would accept.
"Secession should be solemnly deliberated by the elected representatives and the state citizens. Secession should be initiated at the moment that any state reaches the point at which it will no longer accept the despotic tyranny and laws coming from the US Federal Government in Washington, DC. Or, secession should be initiated upon a collapse of the Dollar, or the imposition by Washington DC of martial law in the event of social upheaval."
Discontent is not enough to overthrow the tyrants, who have definitively proven, that a European Union based upon top down authoritarianism is a lawful substitute for locally ruled government based upon common ethics and cultural heritage.
The dramatic rise in opposition to the ruling elites is most encouraging in the eternal struggle against despotism. However, the European socialist welfare model has produced generations of soft stock and irresponsible subjects. Surrendering national sovereignty was the monumental failure of the post war era. Open borders to a confederation of dissimilar ethnic groups, attracts the disparate and incongruent, which builds even more pressure for secession.
As it stands today, the prospects for successful secession movements to attain their independence and autonomy are slim because each are fragmented. The correct and necessary element for separation, must be based upon, the dissolution of the European Union and the elimination of the central banking system, under the control of the international banksters.
Countries need to exercise their proper authority to coin their own currencies and maintain low taxation levels that fund minimum governmental functions.
While such a goal and objective is justified, the globalist controllers will not allow a serene exit from the monolith that they created. Marginal regional self-rule may eventually be reluctantly recognized, only if the basic leviathan structure remain intact and accepted by disgruntle camps. Notwithstanding, that approach can and will never bring about a restoration of national self-determination.
It is time for secession movements to unit and coalesce around a few fundamental principles, which they all share. The regional concerns are issues for local administration. Taking on the monster of globalist governance is a universal task.
Consequently, the undertaking domestically is to build ground swell defiance that moves past a modest grassroots opposition to incorporate the bulk of the rapidly declining middle class. This genuine moral majority must be willing to marginalize the federal government and restore the rightful authority of individual state jurisdiction.
If timid and docile Europeans are engaging in secession movements in such significant numbers, what is the excuse for industrious and energetic Americans from doing the same? This was the country for the home of the brave. Now is the time to restore that outlook with direct action.
SARTRE – March 31, 2014
Africa as a whole is going to face two major problems in the 21 st century: The first problem is how to feed the growing population of the continent, the second is how to adapt to climate change.
Both problems are interlinked since climate change has the potential for having severe implications on the food security in Africa. In the following, the matter and extend of population growth in Africa and the resulting implications will first be discussed. Then it will be assessed how adequate food supply can be achieved. After that the major challenges to ensuring sufficient food supply will be thoroughly addressed.
Population Growth and Food Demand
The population on the African continent is growing rapidly: For the period from 2000 to 2050 eight of the ten countries with the highest average annual growth rate in the world are African. Until 2055, 18 out of the 20 countries with the highest total fertility are located in Sub-Saharan Africa. Nigeria as an example is projected to have the third largest population growth in the world from 2000 to 2050. Already now Nigeria is in the top ten of the most populous countries on the planet and expected to climb in the top five in the course of this century. All these are indicators for the enormous ongoing population growth in Africa and they point to the most important fact: The population on the African continent is expected to double from around one billion to almost two billion over the next 40 years (United Nations, 2004).
Larger populations cause higher food demand on the African continent. The nations in Africa will act to ensure that this higher food demand is met by sufficient food supply. But as elaborated subsequently, the big challenge of the 21 st century for the growing number of people in Africa will be to find means to meet their food demand.
Food Supply and the Challenges
Currently Africa ensures food supply by a mix of domestic food production and overseas food imports. West Africa for example depends to 40% on imports in ensuring sufficient rice supply with Thailand as the main rice supplier (FAO, 2010). The total volume of cereal imports in Africa was around 66 million tons in 2010 (FAO, 2013a). This means that for the whole of Africa 30% of all cereals consumed were imported. (Cereals exports are neglectable: Even if all exports were instead to be used for domestic consumption, 28% of cereals consumed would still be constituted of imports. (FAO, 2013b)) One of the five largest trade flows of wheat in the world is from the US to Nigeria (FAO, 2013a). Despite domestic production and import efforts there were 239 million undernourished people living on the African continent in 2012, most of them in Sub-Saharan Africa. During the last two decades the number of undernourished people in Africa has increased by more than 35% (FAO, 2012). This shows that food insecurity already now is of increasingly relevant concern. In meeting the rising food demand caused by the growth in population in Africa, there are three options of how this rising demand can theoretically be covered by sufficient food supply: raise overseas food imports, raise domestic food production, or increase both food production and food imports.
Ensuring Food Supply through Increased Food Imports
There are several reasons leading to the conclusion that ensuring food supply through increased overseas food imports will not be an option which could satisfy the increasing demand for food:
The current world population could so far be sustained through the benefits of modern agriculture, which promotes the use of irrigation systems, chemical fertilizer, farm machinery, and large-scale monoculture farms for increased efficiency and yields. It is now becoming increasingly understood that this system of modern agriculture is unsustainable at the current scale and potentially cannot even be sustained throughout this century (Cordell, et al. 2009; UNEP, 2011; Gleick & Palaniappan, 2010). The main reason for this is that modern agriculture depends heavily on water, fossil fuels (for irrigation, fertilizer production, machinery, transportation) and phosphate rock (for phosphorus fertilizer). Both fossil fuels and phosphate rock are finite resources and are becoming increasingly scarce. There are estimates that phosphate rock production will peak in the course of this century and thereafter continuously decline, thereby creating a supply-demand gap (Cordell, et al. 2010). Even the global oil company BP states that there are only 54.2 years of known crude oil reserves left and this only when assuming no growth in consumption (BP, 2012). There are other forms of unconventional oil such as tar sands but those deliver a much less favorable energy return on energy invested (EROEI) and therefore bear a much higher price making modern agriculture less affordable and food products more expensive. Additionally also these unconventional fuels will eventually diminish. Phosphorus on the other hand does not have any substitutes: Once the world’s economically retrievable phosphate rock is completely mined there will be no alternative convenient way of obtaining phosphorus easily for the production of phosphorus fertilizer which is indispensable for efficient plant growth. While the dates stated of the end of economically producible fossil fuel and phosphate rock are issues with large vested interests and therefore significantly varying prognoses, it can definitely be expected that fertilizer and oil will become increasingly expensive leading to large increases in food prices making food imports much more costly. A recent example of that problem of agricultural dependence on external inputs was the 2008 global rice crisis which was partly caused by the rise in fuel prices (Slayton, 2009).The same crisis also caused a 700% price increase in phosphate rock (Cordell, et al. 2009).
Finally and probably most importantly there is an increasing lack of water available for agricultural purpose for which no substitutes exist. Generally speaking water is a renewable resource and therefore does not get depleted the same way that fossil fuels get depleted. However there is a maximum of water available at a certain period of time (e. g. through rainfall). If population growth trends continue, the available renewable water during a certain period of time will not be sufficient to meet the agricultural water requirements in that time frame anymore. P. Gleick et al. (2010) suggest for instance that the U. S. already consumes more water than is renewably available by tapping into non-renewable groundwater aquifers. The Colorado River in the U. S. the Huang He in China, or the Nile in Northern Africa often do not reach the sea anymore with river flows falling to zero due to extensive water withdrawals for agricultural use (Gleick & Palaniappan, 2010). The Chairman of Nestlé Mr. Brabeck-Letmathe himself said: “I am convinced that, under present conditions and considering the way water is being currently managed, we will run out of water long before we run out of fuel” (Agence France-Presse, 2009). Climate change is additionally expected to aggravate water scarcity by causing salination of coastal freshwater sources and through a general decline in water quality due to higher average temperatures (IPCC, 2007). These are all signs which strongly indicate that water is becoming a more limited resource. With water, fossil fuels, and phosphate rock becoming increasingly scarce, efficient food production will be challenged, yields might decrease and food prices increase.
Population growth is occurring all over the world. The estimated world population is expected to reach 8.9 billion by 2050 having increased by almost 50% since 2000 (United Nations, 2004). In this context Africa will contribute only around 20% to the total world population. Other nations will have to increasingly make efforts to meet their own domestic demand due to higher population numbers and more challenged modern agriculture systems and therefore have less to spare for exports. The USA – currently the world’s largest exporter of agricultural products– has by some scientists been predicted to cease to be a food exporter and use all of its production for domestic consumption by 2025 given population growth, food consumption, and topsoil loss trends (Pimentel & Giampietro, 1994). Another example, Japan, which has high food import dependence, is aware of the risk of food insecurity and has put increasing food self-sufficiency on the national agenda (OECD, 2013). With nations increasingly focusing on ensuring the food security of their own people there would be fewer opportunities for profitable imports of food products.
Based on this analysis of global population growth paired with diminishing available water, fossil fuels, and phosphate rock for practicing efficient, modern agriculture it should be concluded that food imports will not be the means of how Africa can effectively meet the growing food demand in the long run. Therefore the other proposal to meet increasing food demand – domestic production – should be examined more closely.
Ensuring Food Supply through Increased Domestic Production
Looking at the current conditions there are several challenges to ensure sufficient food supply through domestic production. The primary condition for successfully growing any crop is having soil with appropriate properties. However many African soils are of low quality. A study by the US Department of Agriculture points out: “Fifty five percent of the land in Africa is unsuitable for any kind of agriculture except nomadic grazing.” (Eswaran, et al. 1997) Many soils provide poor amounts of organic matter and have a low soil quality and fertility. As stated in the most recent Climate Change 2007 Report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC): “A number of countries in Africa already face semi-arid conditions that make agriculture challenging”. In Sub-Saharan Africa almost 75% of agricultural soils are nutrient deficient (Cordell, et al. 2009). Current deforestation trends exacerbate the issue of low soil quality: When the protective tree canopy is lost soils become more prone to wind and water erosion which further degrades the soil. Soil erosion in Africa is estimated to cause a loss of 1kg of phosphorus per hectare per year (UNEP, 2011). Ongoing desertification trends also reduce available soil for crop production.
The analysis of the current situation of African soils and crop growing conditions can generally been seen as unfavorable. But looking forward into the century climate change also has to be taken increasingly into consideration as a determining factor. Climate change is having and will increasingly have more severe implications on food security in Africa. As stated by the IPCC: “Agricultural production and food security (including access to food) in many African countries and regions are likely to be severely compromised by climate change and climate variability” (IPCC, 2007). Climate change, which is caused by carbon emissions into the atmosphere, results in an average increase in global temperatures. This temperature increase has several severe implications: Crop productivity is projected to decrease at lower latitudes, especially in seasonally dry and tropical regions, even for low local temperature increases between 1-2°C. According to the IPCC report the reductions in yields could be as much as 50% by 2020. Wheat production for instance is expected to disappear from Africa by the 2080s. In Africa climate change is also expected to decrease the areas suitable for agriculture and the length of the growing season, particularly in arid and semi-arid areas (IPCC, 2007).
A recent analysis by M. Fader et al. (2013) points out that most African countries will need an increase in agricultural efficiency and/or an expansion of agricultural land use in order to satisfy the growing consumption needs even under conservative population growth scenarios (Fader, et al. 2013). Climate change however causes lower crop productivity and therefore reduced agricultural efficiency and also has the effect of a reduction in the land suitable for production. Extraordinary agricultural efficiency improvements will therefore be necessary in Africa to offset the negative effects of climate change while still increasing agricultural productivity. Even without accounting for climate change as a determining factor M. Fader et al. (2013) conclude: “Assuming that the economies of LIE countries (low-income economies, most of them are situated in Africa) will not develop fast and strong enough in the next 40 years and, thus, that they will not have the financial means for improving agricultural productivity, expanding cropland or importing agricultural goods, in 2050 there would be a food security gap in those countries equivalent to 0.9–1.3 billion people”. It should also be pointed out that there will be some countries in Africa like Niger and Somalia which due to their environmental constraints do not have the option to increase domestic production to satisfy food consumption needs but will – provided current population growth trends continue – inevitably be dependent on additional food imports (Fader, et al. 2013).
From this analysis it can be concluded that Africa will be severely challenged in achieving food security through increased domestic production and in some cases even will not be able to achieve this goal: Soil properties in many areas in Africa already disfavor agriculture. As climate change decreases the areas suitable for production and in many cases impairs agricultural efficiency, special emphasis has to be placed on efficiency improvement measures. It is of high importance to create awareness of the challenges ahead for food production in Africa, especially the impacts of climate change, so that adaptive actions can be taken in a timely manner.
Conclusión
The African population is expected to double from one to two billion people in the course of the next 40 years. This population growth requires a significant increase in food supply. Already now there are an increasing number of malnourished people that indicate the increasing importance of ensuring food security. Africa as a continent is currently partially dependent on food imports yet a sufficient increase in food imports is unlikely to occur. This is due to globally occurring population growth and due to increasingly challenged modern agricultural systems with their high dependence on non-renewable resources: The rising global population will cause national governments to decrease food exports in order to meet national food demand. Declining non-renewable resources on which the agricultural sector is depended will cause an increase in food prices and a decrease in yields, both contributing to impaired global food production and reduced opportunities for food imports to Africa. Instead of increasing the dependence on food imports, which would pose an increasingly large risk in the future as the 2008 rice crisis has already indicated, the African nations should focus on increasing domestic production sufficiently. This goal will however also be severely challenged due to the less favorable growing conditions in many African regions and will be further impaired by the ongoing climate change. How should the African nations respond to these challenges? Highest immediate priority should be given to developmental efforts that increase agricultural efficiency such as the widespread implementation of drip irrigation schemes to offset the negative effects of climate change while still increasing production. Awareness has to be created about the effects of climate change on food security and appropriate adaptive capacity should be created. Changes in diet and a lower dependence on meat based food might have to be promoted. Finally, a solution to the ongoing unsustainable population growth needs to be found.
Referencias
Agence France-Presse, 2009. World heads for 'water bankruptcy', says Davos report.
BP, 2012. BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2012.
Cordell, D. Drangert, J.-O. &erio; White, S. 2009. The story of phosphorus: Global food security and food for thought. Global Environmental Change .
Cordell, D. White, S. & Et al. 2010. GPRI Statement on Global Phosphorus Scarcity.
Eswaran, H. Almaraz, R. Reich, P. & Zdruli, P. 1997. Soil Quality and Soil Productivity in Africa.
Fader, M. et al. 2013. Spatial decoupling of agricultural production and consumption: quantifying dependences of countries on food imports due to domestic land and water constraints. Environmental Research Letters .
FAO, 2010. Rice Crisis, market trends, and food security in West Africa.
FAO, 2012. The State of Food Insecurity in the World.
FAO, 2013a. FAO Statistical Yearbook 2013.
FAO, 2013b. FAOSTAT. [Online] Available at: faostat3.fao. org [Accessed 20 June 2013].
Gleick, P. & Palaniappan, M. 2010. Peak water limits to freshwater withdrawal and use. PNAS .
Gleick, P. & Palaniappan, M. 2010. Peak water limits to freshwater withdrawal and use. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences .
IPCC, 2007. Climate Change 2007 - Impacts, Adaption and Vulnerability.
OECD, 2013. OECD Economic Surveys - JAPAN.
Pimentel, D. & Giampietro, M. 1994. Food, Land, Population and the U. S. Economy.
Slayton, T. 2009. Rice Crisis Forensics: How Asian Governments Carelessly Set the World Rice Market on Fire.
UNEP, 2011. UNEP Year Book - Emerging Issues in Our Global Environment.
United Nations, 2004. World Population to 2300.
This is a guest article from Christoph Seiler. Christoph currently conducts research into areas of energy, food, and water supply, global resource depletion, and ecosystem changes at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology.
FUTURE OF ECONOMIC SCIENCE(2009)
FUTURE OF ECONOMIC SCIENCE(2009)
What about the Future of Economic Science? The Contributors attempt to answer this question, in this book. The foundation for the future of economics lies in not only by the contributions of Nobel Laureates in economics but also influenced by leading past economists like Joseph Schumpeter, John Maynard Keynes and J. R. Hicks.
The book proves that in the 21st Century, with more and more empirical works, it will no longer be a dismal science but will be a perfect science. The future of economics is very bright and in the next 100 years, a tremendous amount of research is going to be turned out.
This work will be of interest to all economists, professors and students in conomics and provides a comprehensive picture of the present state of economics with views to the future on varied areas in economics.
PREFACE Time present and Time Past are both perhaps present in Time Future, and Time Future contained in Time Past. T. S. Eliott
To all those who are interested in economics and have read economics and economic thought till the end of the Twentieth Century, one question would arise that „what about the future of our economic science. Economics has many branches now, each one is a specialized area. To answer the question about the future, one has to analyze at least selected areas and each of those areas has to be analyzed keeping a gauge into the future. I have thought of three postulates to deal with those areas. These are the need for a long run view in economics; the need to view economics not only as a theoretical subject but also as the empirical one of those theories and the need to view economics as a real applied science and no longer a subject of mere theories, upto the publication of General theory of John Maynard Keynes in 1936. The application started there after by leading economists, thanks to Keynes particularly and Paul A. Samuelson has done a lot on this aspect and in putting mathematics into economics has been just a play for him. The last one is the need to view economics as not just a political economy but a perfect science.
The second half of the twentieth century was dominated by the contributions of Nobel laureates in economics who are now 62 in number after its first presentation to Jan Tinbergen and Ragnar Frisch in 1969. Each of these laureates has their own specialized areas and they have applied to past theories and translated economics from a mere decimal science to empirically applied science and thus made it a perfect science. These contributions of laureates will become the basis is the future for more and more empirically applied studies and researches in the 21st century. But, Keynes is ever lost and will be revisiting. To provide an overview of the contributions of Nobel Laureates, they are listed in the Annex at the end of the book.
When the „Economic Journal? of the Royal Economic Society, London published its centenary volume in January 1991 which has focused on future of economics, I was inspired by that work done under the leadership John D. Hey, the then Editor of the „Economic Journal. I thought I should do substantial work for an expanded book on Future of Economic Science, much larger in scope and coverage in areas in economics. I contacted Hey who sent his blessings to me on my task.
The „Future of Economics? in this book is presented keeping in view the three postulates mentioned above. It is presented in 37 chapters authored by about 40 economists well known and reputed in the World who have kindly authored those papers. These authors are, Frank Hahn, Paul Streeten, Donghyun Park, Alan E. H. Speight, Steven Cook, Gamini Herath, Jon D. Erickson, Jesus M. Zaratiegui, Gilbert Abraham-Frois, Steven Pressman, Wei Huang, K. K. Lai, Y. Nakamori, Shouyang Wang, John Lodewijks, Vittorangelo Orati, Spiridon Paraskewopoulos, Víctor A. Beker, John Paleologos. Ken-ichi Tatsumi, Andrea Micocci, Cees Gorter, Ronald Schettkat, Paul M. Comolli. M. J.Waples, Javier Campos, Juan-Luis Jimenez, Michela Nardo, Maite Cabeza-Gutés, Craig P. Gower, Ismail Shariff, Sarah Lumley, Marc D. Hayford, Douglas Mair, Anthony J. Laramie, and Th. Blecker.
It is difficult to cover even the briefest summaries of these chapters in the preface. Therefore, I have taken more important chapters for the purpose. The first chapter by Frank Hahn, The Next Hundred Years serves the purpose of a brief introduction followed by Paul Streeten who in his chapter Shifting Fashions in Development Dialogue has provided three justifications for the early emphasis in economic growth and has discussed and seems to be justified. The chapter covers a survey of evolution development thinking from the early days when the growth was accepted as a performance test (not as the objective) of development, via an emphasis on employment creation, jobs and justice, redistribution with growth and sustainable development to basic human needs, human development and the capability approach. There follows a critical discussion of the Human Development Index.
The paper ends with a discussion whether a freedom index should be integrated into the human development index.
The Future of Development Economics will clearly remain a highly relevant discipline in the 21stcentury. The extent to which development economists succeed in making substantive progress will largely determine whether they can make a significant and positive impact on the everyday lives of ordinary people in developing countries, which, in turn, is ultimately the yardstick of their discipline? s effectiveness and relevance for the 21st Century.
Another noted author Alan E. H. Speight with his co-author Steven Cook has presented Future Directions in Applied Econometric Methodology briefly and very well. The approach adopted here is largely discursive, rather than technical, in the hope that the arguments and conjectures presented might be accessible to as wide an audience as possible. He has demonstrated that econometrics is certainly a child of the past 100 years looking for its future in the 21th century. There is a chapter on future of economics from the angle of environment in the 21st century. This is authored by Jon D. Erickson. Gilbert Abraham-Frois has wondered Can One Contemplate a New Classical Synthesis? and well analyzed. The chapter by Jesus M. Zaratiegui what progress economics has made and what can we contemplate in rebuilding the new economics is an analytical chapter. There is a feeling that the research and training in economics is slowly going down in its quantum. John Lodewijks ponders over the subject Training the economists of the future and suggests methods to improve the quality and quantity of research.
These are a few illustrative examples and every chapter in the book has provided economic analysis of the subject matter of the chapter concerned and has provided future directions. All most all subjects in economics including the recent globalization concept and its controversy on to full employment and distribution of income and future of internet technologies have been covered. Thus, this book, it is hoped, will provide a comprehensive picture of the present state of economics with views about the future on varied areas in economics.
In a work of this nature, it would be difficult to acknowledge everyone who have co-operated with me in bringing out this book.
I wish to acknowledge with gratitude all the authors who have contributed and whose names are mentioned above. Profesor. Paul A. Samuelson, the first American Nobel Laureate in economics has been a major source of inspiration to me who has encouraged through his papers to other works and „forewords? to some books. Similarly, Robert M. Solow, Nobel Laureate in economics has acknowledged my work and he has stated in letter that “over the years, I and many other economists around the World have profited from your work. On half of our discipline, such selfless endeavor often goes under rewarded and underappreciated. I can certify my own appreciation. I know I speak for many other economists”. I am grateful for his appreciation and help to me in doing my further works and bring out this book. Special mention may be made who have actively co-operated with me on a continuous basis. These Professors are Warren P. Hogan and John Lodewijks from Australia, Abraham - Frois from France and Vittorangelo Orati from Italy. I also acknowledge with thanks the co-operation of many economists who have refereed the papers and special mention may be made of Rathiram, Distinguished Professor, Illinois State University, USA and John Lodewijks, Professor and Head, University of Sydney.
The future of economics is very bright and in the next 100 years, a tremendous amount of research are going to be turned out based on major works of Joseph A. Schumpeter, John Maynard Keynes, Sir John Hicks and their contemporaries. The works of laureates in economics will also stand out as foundation for future research in the 21st century. The major works of Professors Paul A. Samuelson, Jan Tinbergen, Kenneth J. Arrow, Sir John Hicks, Wassily Leontief, James Tobin, Robert M. Solow and Franco Modigliani, among others, are bound to influence the future of economics in the decades to come.
It is hoped that this work which is a major one will be read with interest by all economists, professors and students in economics and other professional colleagues in the World. 17th August 2009 K. Puttaswamaiah
This volume assembles a distinguished panel of international experts to review current trends in the discipline of economics and to speculate on future developments. The canvas is very broad. The topics include the environment and sustainability, new institutional, Schumpeterian and behavioural economics, the economics of networks and advances in econometrics, non-linear dynamics and financial volatility, and the globalization debates. Every reader will find something of interest and be challenged by the conjectures of this splendid volume.
-John Lodewijks, Professor & Head, University of Western Sydney.
The very title of this enormous volume is enough to indicate the outrageous daring project that K. Puttaswamaiah has devised and succeeded to manage. More than forty specialists give their opinion and produce their analysis on nearly 900 pages treating in an original way a great variety of topics: globalisation, non linearity, finance, development, institutional economics, neural networks…. A superb realization which will remain of interest in the remote future…
-Gilbert Abraham-Frois, Professor, University Paris-X-Nanterre.
Copyright y copia; 2011
Dr. K. Puttaswamiah
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Photo taken by ChemLinked reporter Fang Lin on 6 May 2014.
In 2013 China produced 3.19 million tons of pesticide, continuing the impressive growth the industry has witnessed over the last five years. Import volumes have also grown over the past 5 years, which have diluted profit margins for domestic interests and greatly increased competition. (See ChemLinked News Release on 13 May 2014 ).
Domestic interests can take some solace in the fact that the increase in exportation has heavily outweighed importation. In the early 21th century, China mainly exported glyphosate and paraquat to the overseas market, but China become the major exporter of new generics and out of some profitable generic active ingredient, which includes azoxystrobin, kresoxim-methyl, mesotrione and glufosinate, etc.
Driven by favorable exportation importation ratios, the industry has seen growth and significant increase in both revenue and investment.
Major Economic indicator of Chinese Pesticide Industry in FY2013
Qualifying criteria for the top 100 list required a minimum of 300 million CYN per annum turnover, a considerable increase from 2013 (260 million CYN per annum) and 2012 (200 million CYN per annum).
The total revenue of the Top 100 was 97.92 billion CYN, much larger than the revenue in 2013 of 79.19 billion CYN and 2012 of 618.6 billion Yuan.
31 companies have sales of more than 1 billion CYN, which is much more than 2012 16 companies.
The total sales the top 31 companies accounted for more than 61.1% of the total sales of the TOP 100
It is clear from the above data that larger companies perform considerably better than SMEs indicating that the government’s natural selection by regulation industry reforms are starting to show(See Agro Analysis on 8 Jul 2014 ). From a geographical point of view, Jiangsu, Shandong and Zhejiang were still the highest performing regions for the pesticide industry with companies from these three provinces accounting for over 68% of total sales. An interesting trend is shown in sales figures of companies from central and western regions in China which jumped by 25.1%, indicating that the industry is shifting to less developed areas.
As the largest pesticide exporting country in the world, over one third of the pesticide exported out of China was glyphosate and the highest performers in the Top 100 companies were glyphosate producers. The three largest producers, Wynca, Jinfanda and Fuhua Tongda each ranked the first, second and fourth places of the Top 100 list. The growth of Jinfanda and Fuhua Tongda even exceed 60%. Four of the Top 5 companies have product capacities in excess of over 30, 000 tons per year. The volume and value of glyphosate export have grown by 55% and 49% respectively and over 85% of the herbicide was export to North America and Latin America.
Nevertheless, glyphosate is not the only sector whose rise and decline are at the mercy of global demand. Increased exportation throughout the pesticide sector has made global market forces hugely important for the Chinese industry as a whole. Zhang Yibin, Professor of the Shanghai Pesticide Research Institute, summarized the possible benefits and impacts brought about by increased trade and influence of overseas markets and MNCs during an industrial conference held by CCPIA. As the fifth largest pesticide market in the world, China enjoyed an average growth of 10% over the past five years.
Photo taken by ChemLinked reporter Fang Lin on 6 May 2014.
Over 80% of the global market is dominated by MNCs. China has become the largest pesticide producer and exporter in the world and the influence of these MNCs has a profound impacts on China’s crop protection market and pesticide industry.
Imported active ingredients introduced by the MNCs to the Chinese market have promoted diversification and update of China’s domestic industry. For example, China’s is the largest supplier of glyphosate and a major exporter of other generics such as paraquat, imidacloprid and chlorpyrifos, etc. Meanwhile, the patent or newly patent-off pesticides introduced by the MNCs have enriched the solution of Chinese growers:
Volume, Value, Patent Status of the Top 12 Imported and Exported Active Ingredients in China
MNCs of these active ingredients not only import/export Chinese pesticides, but also establish subsidiaries or contract manufacturers in China bringing with them new concepts and technologies. The GLP management on labs and environmental awareness would likely be far less developed without the influence of these MNC’s. The business activities of these MNCs have also had negative impact on the Chinese pesticide industry. Of the approximately 600 active ingredients in widespread global distribution, about 300 of them are in widespread use in China, of which 90% were developed by MNCs. If calculated by value, the percentage would be 95%. In fact, China developed only 30 new active ingredients ( see ChemLinked News Release on 25 Feb 2014 ), which accounted for 10% of the active ingredients utilized in China. But the total market share of these active ingredients is less than 5% and none of them has ever been exported to overseas markets by a Chinese company. The active ingredients introduced by the MNCS has somewhat inhibited the commercialization of the new pesticides developed by Chinese industry and thus has hindered innovation on a domestic front.
For more information about the active ingredients and formulation regstered in China and the manufacturing approval/license of Chinese producers, Please click here to explore our CPAD database.
Though China’s pesticide exportation statistics were robust, it should realize its disadvantaged position in the global supply chain. Most of China’s exportations were technical materials or important intermediates of some patented pesticide. Most of these chemicals generate heavy pollution during the production process. Most importations are proprietary formulations and patent pesticides. In fact on a unit per unit comparison the market value of exports in on average three times cheaper than imported pesticides.
Average Import and Export Prices of China’s Pesticide(2009-2013)
MNCs demand for product precursors is not always a positive thing for the Chinese pesticide industry and can often negatively affect China’s domestic industry. When MNC precursor demand increases it often stimulates Chinese producers to increase production capacity which often leads to overcapacity ultimately leading to devalued product. The best example of this was seen in the glyphosate industry. The closer a patent active ingredient gets to the expiry, many Chinese producers apply for pesticide registration and production licenses, etc. ( see ChemLinked News Release on 9 Apr 2013 ).
Encouragingly, some Chinese producers are seeking to address the trade imbalance by rationalizing their product line. The exportation of pesticide formulation has seen significant grown since 2011 and the value accounted for about 40% of the total exports in 2013. Professor Zhang forecasts that “Double - digit growth of formulation exportation is expected in 2014!”
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Coming up with a list of influential economists from the past is easy enough. John Locke, Adam Smith, David Ricardo, Karl Marx, and Alfred Marshall readily spring to mind. Coming up with a list of influential economists of recent memory is also easy enough: John Maynard Keynes, Joseph Schumpeter, Friedrich von Hayek, Paul Samuelson, and Milton Friedman spring readily to mind. But coming up with the twenty most influential living economists poses more of a challenge.
Unlike in the past, economists now wield considerable political power. Is their influence to be measured in political terms, as in how widely their ideas are implemented in public policy and law? Is their influence to measured in originality of ideas and profundity of analysis? Is their influence to be measured in the degree to which they’ve transformed the discipline? As these questions suggest, no single measure of influence applies across the board. With these questions in the background, SuperScholar offers this list of its twenty most influential living economists.
Kenneth Arrow
Kenneth Arrow (b. 1921) is the preeminent living mathematical economist, bringing high-powered mathematics to bear on long-standing economic questions, especially in connection to general equilibrium.
Gary Becker
Gary Becker (b. 1930) merged sociology and economics, showing how sociological factors influence economic behavior, while also laying particular stress on human capital.
Barbara Bergmann
Barbara Bergmann (b. 1927) laid the foundations for much of contemporary feminist economics, especially regarding discrimination in the workplace.
Hernando de Soto
Hernando de Soto (b. 1941) has underscored the need for legal infrastructure, especially in protecting property, as the key to economic growth in developing countries.
Ernst Fehr
Ernst Fehr (b. 1951) has done fundamental work on human cooperation, especially in the area of altruistic punishment (punishment that offers no seeming economic incentive to the punisher and yet helps mould cooperation of the larger group).
Francis Fukuyama
Francis Fukuyama (b. 1952) is a political economist who tracks how economic, technological, and social forces facilitate as well as undercut liberal democracy.
Alan Greenspan
Alan Greenspan (b. 1926) instituted monetary policies during his nineteen years as head of the Federal Reserve that played a significant role in the economic crisis of 2008 and following.
Daniel Kahneman
Daniel Kahneman (b. 1934) applied experimental psychology to economics to show how psychological factors can radically undermine classical conceptions of human economic agents as rational utility maximizers.
Lawrence Robert Klein
Lawrence Robert Klein (b. 1920), one of the 20th century’s key econometricians, was the first to make significant use of computer modeling in economic forecasting.
Arthur Laffer
Arthur Laffer (b. 1940), one of the chief architects of Ronald Reagan’s economic policies, is best known for the “Laffer Curve,” which purports to demonstrate that decreasing tax rates may increase tax revenues.
Robert Lucas Jr.
Robert Lucas Jr. (b. 1937) is best known for his work on the microeconomic basis for macroeconomics and on how rational expectations affect, and may mislead, economic agents.
Elinor Ostrom
Elinor Ostrom (b. 1933) has focused on the means of ensuring the continued use of common pool resources with an eye on preventing ecosystem collapse, a major concern in these times of ever increasing population.
Christopher Antoniou Pissarides
Christopher Antoniou Pissarides (b. 1948) is best known for his work on the relation between the labor market and the wider economy, focusing especially on the role of search frictions (obstacles to finding trading partners).
Jeffrey Sachs
Jeffrey Sachs (b. 1954) has played a key role in helping developing and command economies (notably in Eastern Europe after the collapse of the Soviet Union) in transitioning to a free-market system.
Amartya Sen
Amartya Sen (b. 1933), called the “Mother Teresa of Economics,” has humanized the once dismal science, focusing on practical economic ways of redressing poverty and thereby alleviating human suffering.
William Forsyth Sharpe
William Forsyth Sharpe (b. 1934) is a towering figure in financial economics whose work on capital asset pricing, and especially on the valuation of derivatives, has been seminal.
Mark Skousen
Mark Skousen (b. 1947) promotes libertarian economics to a wide audience through his academic career, writings, newsletter, and annual FreedomFest.
Thomas Sowell
Thomas Sowell (b. 1930) is an academic economist and social critic whose popular and scholarly writings are widely read, arguing for free markets and economic growth.
Joseph Stiglitz
Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Nassim Nicholas Taleb (b. 1960) works in mathematical finance, where he introduced the concept of “black swan events” (rare events that can’t be fit within a known reference class of possibilities) to understand the current economic crisis.
Forex Technical Indicators
This category displays the most common used technical indicators in forex trading.
Technical Indicators Index:
Moving Averages (MA's) Technical Indicators | Written by Aboutcurrency Moving averages (MA's) are one of the most popular technical analysis tools used when trading forex. Moving averages lag price, in other words, if price starts to move sharply upward or downward, it will take some time for the new data to filter into the moving average calculation and for it to react or "catch up". Lee mas.
Relative Strength Index (RSI) Technical Indicators | Written by John Cheney Developed by J. Welles Wilder, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is an extremely popular price following oscillator as a measure of a currency pair's price relative to itself and its past performance. Lee mas.
Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) Technical Indicators | Written by Peter Sof Developed by G. Appel in the 1960s, MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence) is a very popular technical indicator designed to identify trend changes and is often used to confirm trends in forex trading systems. Lee mas.
Stochastic oscillator Technical Indicators | Written by Aboutcurrency The Stochastic Oscillator tracks market momentum and consists of two oscillator lines, called %D and %K. Oscillator readings below 20% are considered oversold. Oscillator readings above 80% are considered overbought. Lee mas.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI) Technical Indicators | Written by Aboutcurrency CCI measures the position of price in relation to its moving average and is designed to identify cyclical turns. CCI works well in ranging markets and typically fluctuates between +100 and -100 readings. Lee mas.
Bollinger Bands Technical Indicators | Written by Aboutcurrency Bollinger Bands can be used to measure changes in supply and demand for the underlying currency pair. Lee mas.
DMI Indicator - Directional Movement Index Technical Indicators | Written by Pete V. DMI indicator is a trend following indicator designed to determine first whether a currency pair is trending or non-trending before providing buy or sell signals in the direction of the trend. Lee mas.
Parabolic SAR Technical Indicators | Written by Pete V. SAR stands for "stop and reverse" and Parabolic refers to the parabolic-shaped series of dots that are overlayed on the underlying currency price chart. Lee mas.
Momentum Technical Indicators | Written by Pete V. Momentum indicator measures the difference between the current market price of a currency pair and the price of the same currency pair a certain number (n) of days ago. Lee mas.
Price Envelopes Technical Indicators | Written by Laim Dum Price envelopes consist of 2 moving averages and are plotted at a set percentage above and below a 3rd moving average. Price envelopes can be used to indicate overbought and oversold levels. Overbought conditions are found at the upper band and oversold conditions at the lower band. Lee mas.
Williams %R Oscillator Technical Indicators | Written by Kent Gerard Williams%R is a momentum indicator used to indicate overbought and oversold levels. Overbought market conditions are found at the upper band (readings from 0 to -20) and oversold conditions at the lower band (readings from -80 to -100). Lee mas.
Average True Range (ATR) Technical Indicators | Written by Aboutcurrency Average True Range (ATR) is a popular volatility indicator used to measure the volatility in currency pairs. ATR does not provide any information about the direction of the trend (up or down), it only provides useful info about how volatile a currency pair is. Lee mas. Average Directional Index - ADX Indicator Technical Indicators | Written by Aboutcurrency ADX is a momentum indicator that measures the strength of a prevailing trend. ADX and can be extremely useful to determine if a trend is strong or weak or to filter out false breakouts in non-trending markets. Lee mas.
Environmental change trends 'mixed bag', meeting hears
[LONDON] Scientific indicators show that environmental change caused by human activities continues to rise — in some cases heading towards the 'tipping point' beyond which there may be no recovery — but social indicators offer hope that the battle to save the environment is not lost yet, an international conference heard today.
Speakers at the Planet Under Pressure conference (26–29 March) presented two sets of indicators of environmental change — scientific and social — and how they fared over two time periods: between 1950 and 2000, and since 2000.
William Steffen, executive director of the Australian National University's Climate Change Institute, reported that the key global physical, geological and biological indicators of climate change. such as carbon dioxide levels, loss of polar ice or tropical forests, continued to rise in each decade since the 1950s.
"These [rising] trends in the 20th century by and large continue unabated in the 21th century," él dijo.
This article is part of our Planet Under Pressure 2012 coverage — which takes place 26–29 March 2012. To read insights from our conference team please visit our blog .
According to Steffen, loss of Arctic ice may have already reached the tipping point — a point of no return.
Sandra Diaz, professor at Córdoba National University, in Argentina, cautioned that unsustainable growth is taking a toll on the natural ecosystems that are losing their diversity.
Severe biodiversity losses include many of the species that are crucial for the food web, but do not have the capacity to quickly adapt to changes, such as large animals and fish that grow and reproduce slowly.
"It is a very good recipe for reaching some point of abrupt change that may be irreversible," Diaz warned.
Similar trends were seen in social indicators used to measure changes that affect development, environment degradation and climate change, such as population growth, land use, and energy consumption.
But the rate at which the social indicators are worsening has slowed down, said Diana Liverman, professor of geography and development at the University of Arizona, United States, whose work as sesses the social trends that demonstrate whether our trajectory is towards further damage or away from it.
"These are positive signs," ella dijo.
Liverman added there has been a "dramatic drop" in human fertility rates which have halved in the last few decades and the UN now estimates that the population could level off at nine billion people. She attributed the drop to improvement in women 's status and education. as well as access to contraceptives.
Other encouraging signs included the decline in energy use per unit of economic growth and slowing down of loss of tropical forests to cultivation in some countries, such as Vietnam where forests are "starting to return".
"There are incredible signs of pressure on the human planet, but there are [also] signs of [things] turning around," ella dijo.
For more news and analysis of the Planet Under Pressure 2012 conference click here. and also see our live blog .
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Twenty-First Century Fox Inc. 21st Century Fox Subsidiary Prices Issue of $1 Billion of New Debt
09/25/2013 | 05:32pm US/Eastern
Twenty-First Century Fox, Inc. (the "Company") today announced that its wholly-owned subsidiary has priced $300 million of 4.00% Senior Notes due 2023 and $700 million of 5.40% Senior Notes due 2043 (together, the "Notes"). The Notes will be guaranteed by the Company. The closing of the offering is expected to occur on September 30, 2013, subject to satisfaction of customary closing conditions. The Company will receive gross proceeds of $994,376,000 from this offering and expects to use the net proceeds for general corporate purposes.
The offering will be made in accordance with Rule 144A under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, to purchasers in the United States and in accordance with Regulation S under the Securities Act to purchasers outside of the United States. The offering of the Notes has not been registered under the Securities Act, and the Notes may not be offered or sold absent registration or an applicable exemption from registration. This press release shall not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy the Notes. No offer, solicitation or sale will be made in any jurisdiction in which such an offer, solicitation, or sale would be unlawful.
About 21st Century Fox
21st Century Fox is the world's premier portfolio of cable, broadcast, film, pay TV and satellite assets spanning six continents across the globe. Reaching nearly 1.5 billion subscribers in 100 local languages every day, 21st Century Fox is home to a global portfolio of cable and broadcasting networks and properties, including FOX, FX, FXX, FS1, Fox News Channel, Fox Business Network, Fox Sports, Fox Sports Network, National Geographic Channels, Fox Pan American Sports, MundoFox, STAR and 28 local television stations; film studio Twentieth Century Fox Film; and television production studios Twentieth Century Fox Television and Shine Group. The Company also provides premium content to millions of subscribers through its pay-television services in Europe and Asia, including Sky Deutschland, Sky Italia and its equity interests in BSkyB and Tata Sky. For more information about 21st Century Fox, please visit www.21CF. com.
© Business Wire 2013
Best Forex Trading System Volatility Indicators
Volatility Indicators can be used to develop a best forex trading system or trading strategies suitable for trading Stocks. Exchange Traded Funds. Forex. Commodities. Cautiverio. Futuros. etc.
Technical Analysis of financial markets is the study of market action using price charts to forecast future price direction. La filosofía básica de los analistas técnicos es que todos los factores que influyen en el precio se reflejan rápidamente en el precio y el estudio de la acción del precio puede revelar el rendimiento futuro. Technicians are concerned with the trends implied by past data, charts and technical indicators. Many believe that history repeats itself in the markets. A fundamental analyst on the other hand tries to ascertain the intrinsic value of a security in an effort to forecast future performance.
As Charles Dow, a pioneer of technical analysis in the late 1800’s said, “the market reduces to a bloodless verdict all knowledge bearing on finance, both domestic and foreign. ” Other famous pioneers in the early half of the 20th century include W. D. Gann and R. N. Elliott. Durante décadas y particularmente con el amanecer de la era de la computadora, el análisis técnico ha crecido en sofisticación y renombre y se practica extensamente en el análisis de mercados hoy. In fact most online brokers and trading platforms offer free charting packages.
Technical analysis is used to identify trade entry levels as well as targets for taking a profit or loss. There are many indicators used in technical analysis and reading a book on the topic is likely to leave one more confused than ever. The main point is that you don’t need to know every indicator in order to trade successfully. De hecho, una trampa importante para aquellos que comienzan en el comercio está utilizando demasiados indicadores en su análisis, por lo tanto, complicar el proceso de comercio. La mayoría de los comerciantes sólo utilizan un puñado de indicadores para el comercio. Sin embargo, es bueno saber que existen otros indicadores y que hay comerciantes por ahí que tienen una visión diferente de lo que su análisis sugiere.
Below is a list of popular volatility indicators with further explanations on the links. It is an explanatory section rather than a comment on the effectiveness of the indicator. It is not necessary to learn how to apply them all and again I stress that most traders only use a few in their trading.
La volatilidad en los mercados financieros es una medida de la variación de precios de un mercado a lo largo del tiempo. Volatility indicators show the size and the magnitude of the price fluctuations of a financial instrument. Markets change from periods of high volatility (wide fluctuations in prices) to low volatility (a reduction in fluctuations in prices). Typically, markets become more volatile in an environment of fear or panic. Knowledge of the historical volatility of a market can aid trading strategy because it gives the trader a better idea of how prices much prices will fluctuate during times of high and low volatility.
Best Forex Trading System
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United Nations System Standing Committee on Nutrition
List of Documents
The Chairman, Dr Richard Jolly, welcomed participants to the 26 th Session of the ACC/SCN, held at the invitation of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights, Mrs Mary Robinson. He also welcomed the Director General of WHO, Dr Gro Harlem Brundtland and other guest speakers: Mr Namanga Ngongi, Deputy Executive Director, World Food Programme; Mr Chris Lovelace, Director, Health, Nutrition and Population, World Bank; Ms Amelia Bonifacio, Director, Operational Support, UNHCR, Mr Hartwig de Haen, Assistant Director-General, FAO; and Mr Stephen Lewis, Deputy Executive Director, United Nations Children's Fund. The attendance by so many senior UN Agency staff underlined the importance given to the human right to food and nutrition in the UN system.
A warm welcome was extended to representatives of bilateral agencies, AGN members, NGOs and other supporting groups. Created in 1977 by the ECOSOC, the ACC/SCN's tripartite structure is unique in the coordinating machinery of the UN. It is a practical expression of relating UN system activities with those of civil society which the UN Secretary General Mr Kofi Annan is promoting in the UN as the way of the future. In this respect the ACC/SCN has, from the beginning, embodied approaches which other parts of the UN now see as necessary. Nevertheless, the ACC/SCN should be asking itself whether its methods of meeting and interaction are adequate, and how to mobilize greater attention to nutrition in the years ahead, building on the commitments set out at the 1990 World Summit for Children, the 1992 International Conference on Nutrition and the 1996 World Food Summit.
The successes encouraged or sponsored by the ACC/SCN were recalled, e. g. the recognition in 1985 of the need for a major programme to eliminate iodine deficiency; the commitment in 1986 by the IMF to consider the protection of nutrition in programmes of economic adjustment; the proposal in 1989 to hold an International Conference on Nutrition; documentation in 1993 of the enormous impact of vitamin A deficiency on young child mortality; publication of Reports on the World Nutrition Situation, and the creation of a network of NGOs and UN agencies supporting nutrition for refugees and displaced persons. ACC/SCN publications attract a wide readership, at least 10,000 nutrition and development professionals, two thirds of whom are in developing countries.
Human rights and nutrition, the topic of this year's Symposium, has received increased attention ever since the ACC/SCN established a working group on this subject some five years ago. Following the UN Secretary-General's strong support for human rights, it is appropriate that UN agencies should explore a human rights approach to their mandates. In a world where global interaction in business and finance is gaining ground, human rights, notably the right to adequate food and nutrition, should not be overlooked. In this connection, the Chairman drew attention to the report of the Commission on the Nutrition Challenges of the 21 st Century "Ending Malnutrition by the Year 2020."
In her keynote speech Mrs Mary Robinson welcomed to the Symposium the many experts on food and nutrition. This Symposium, Mrs Robinson stated, is a practical example of the extensive cooperation between UN agencies and the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights towards the full realization of the human right to food and nutrition. Malnutrition often stems from multiple denials of the rights of children, adolescent girls and women in particular. The High Commissioner for Human Rights is committed to all human rights, be they civil, cultural, economic, political or social rights. Economic, social and cultural rights have, in the past, received too little attention. This is being rectified in cooperation with UNDP, ILO, WHO, FAO, UNESCO, The World Bank and others. According to FAO estimates more than 800 million people throughout the world do not have enough food to meet their needs. The right to adequate food has been recognized since the adoption of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights in 1948 as an important component of the right to an adequate standard of living. It has also been confirmed in the principal human rights conventions, and it is linked to a number of other human rights in the fields of health and education. Its realization is inseparable from appropriate economic, environmental and social policies, oriented towards eradication of poverty and the satisfaction of basic needs.
The right to adequate food and nutrition implies three types of obligations on States party to the International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights: a) to respect access to adequate food under all circumstances, b) to protect the States responsibility of ensuring that private entities or individuals do not deprive individuals of their access to adequate food, and c) whenever an individual or a group is unable to enjoy the right to adequate food, States have the obligation to fulfil that right. Fulfilment includes legislative and administrative measures addressing all aspects of the food system, including the production, processing, distribution and consumption of food, as well as parallel measures in the field of health, education, employment and social security.
The realization of the right to adequate food has to happen at the country level. Incorporating this right in the national legislative framework is essential to ensure accountability by the State towards the "claim holders". All States have an obligation to cooperate not only in regard to individuals under their domestic jurisdiction, but also under the UN charter, to cooperate in solving problems of a social and humanitarian nature outside their jurisdiction. Mrs Robinson appealed strongly to UN agencies to adopt a rights-based approach to their mandates. While cooperation between the agencies and the treaty bodies has developed well during the last few years, greater emphasis should be put on sharing information and the development of joint indicators to measure achievements and shortcomings in the realization of food and nutrition rights. UN agencies can provide not only legal, political and administrative advice to States on how better to meet their obligations regarding the right to food and nutrition, but also help States in monitoring implementation of these rights.
The Director-General of the World Health Organization, Dr Gro Harlem Brundtland, stressed that human rights should not be compartmentalized since the issue cuts across all political and technical priorities. Nutrition is a key universal factor that affects, as much as it defines, the health of all people. The proper mix of nutrients under clean and safe conditions must be available to all. A world of inequity, poverty, underdevelopment, poor distribution and inadequate access to food, health and care is far from achieving this gold standard, and the tragic consequences of malnutrition are there for all to see. Poverty is the main obstacle to the attainment of health, while ill-health also breeds poverty. One reason for this unfulfilled agenda is the neglect of basic human rights, and it is often up to the health sector to deal with the disastrous results.
An explicit human-rights approach to health and nutrition means that mechanisms and procedures are gradually put into place to ensure that core values are underpinned in international human-rights law, are subsequently incorporated into national laws, and thereby have a chance of becoming a reality. A human-rights perspective provides the international community with yet another opportunity to support the development of sound public health policies and practices that promote healthy nutrition as a cornerstone of all social and economic development. This approach is consistent with how international organizations function, both as policy advocates and providers of technical support. Human rights should begin at home. This means that a "human-rights culture" should permeate each of the agencies present. Staff should be continually challenged to explore how they can make effective use of human-rights norms. The example set in the ACC/SCN has important implications, through the ACC, for how the entire UN system addresses the issue of human rights. Governmental accountability for human-rights standards requires an understanding of minimum standards of nutrition, of the body of operational laws and policies, and of monitoring mechanisms that help establish evidence of the contribution of health and nutrition to human rights. Advocacy for human rights contributes to a global public good that the UN system is there to promote. Doing it together will provide new energy for an important human cause.
II. MATTERS FOR THE ATTENTION OF CCPOQ AND ACC
Challenges for Nutrition
Three major conferences in the 1990s on food and nutrition established a consensus for action to reduce poverty, food insecurity and undernutrition substantially over the next 15 to 20 years: the World Summit for Children, the International Conference for Nutrition and the World Food Summit. Since then there have been significant achievements in nutrition. To date 67% of countries affected by iodine deficiency disorders have made progress towards achieving universal salt iodization, and 48% have made substantial progress (defined as more than half the population currently consuming iodized salt). Underweight and stunting in preschool children have declined in all regions, except for sub-Saharan Africa. Severe vitamin A deficiency has decreased in all regions and the past several years have seen a significant expansion of vitamin A supplementation linked with immunization programmes. The nutrition community has reached important agreements on ways to address iron deficiency anaemia.
Much remains to be done and there are new challenges. Some 30 million infants are born each year in developing countries with intra-uterine growth retardation. Population wide interventions aimed at preventing foetal growth retardation are urgently needed. There are still more than 150 million underweight preschool children worldwide, and more than 200 million are stunted. Stunting is linked to mental impairment. High proportions of Asian and African mothers are undernourished: this is exacerbated by seasonal food shortages, especially in Africa. Maternal anaemia is pandemic, over 80% in some countries, and is associated with very high rates of maternal death. Sub-clinical vitamin A deficiency still affects between 140 to 250 million preschool children in developing countries, and is associated with high rates of morbidity and mortality. These numbers do not take into account vitamin A deficiency in older children and adults and thus seriously underestimate the total magnitude. Overweight and obesity are rapidly growing in all regions, affecting children and adults alike. These problems are now so common in some developing countries that they are beginning to replace more traditional public health concerns. Maternal and early childhood undernutrition are linked to increased susceptibility in adult life to diabetes, heart disease and hypertension.
The Commission on the Nutrition Challenges of the 21 st Century stresses that unless a major acceleration in action occurs, the goals of the international conferences will be largely unmet, and enormous opportunities will be missed. Reliance on current processes and levels of action will fail to grasp the opportunities and will condemn most nations to an escalating but preventable health burden that limit a societys capacity to benefit economically. The UN is in a great position to give a lead by enhancing collaboration and action at the country level. This can be achieved through the UN Development Group, the UN Development Assistance Framework and the Resident Coordinator System. The ACC/SCN therefore asks the ACC to give positive support, focused on the agreed global nutrition goals, and to an enhanced effort at the country level.
B. Business Matters
B.1. Chairmanship of the ACC/SCN
About one month before the 26 th Session Dr. Jolly had reminded the ACC/SCN that his second two-year term as chairman would come to a close in December, 1999. Accordingly, a meeting of the UN agencies, chaired by Dr Nevin Scrimshaw, UNU, discussed the matter. The following decisions and recommendations were arrived at by consensus.
The UN agencies:
Wished to commend Dr Jolly for his effective leadership and express their appreciation of the increased visibility of the ACC/SCN in the UN system as evidenced at the current meeting, the restructuring initiative set in motion, identifying nutrition challenges in the millennium, and the development of a strategic plan for the ACC/SCN.
Endorsed the concept of rotation of the ACC/SCN chair after two two-year terms. However in view of the need for his experienced continued leadership through the restructuring process and beginning the implementation of a strategic plan, recommended and requested a one-year extension of Dr Jollys appointment as chair.
Recommended that a process for identifying a new chair to succeed him at the end of next year be initiated as soon as possible so that the selection process could be completed by the beginning of the next ACC/SCN meeting at the latest and preferably earlier.
Designated a search committee to facilitate this process to be made up of one representative from each UN member agency of the ACC/SCN and chaired by Dr Cutberto Garza, UNU to begin the work as soon as possible. It would be expected to make optimum use of electronic consultations.
Recommended that Dr Jollys successor should be designated as "Chair-elect" at the start of the year 2000 meeting, participate in this meeting and work with Dr Jolly and the Technical Secretary in planning an orderly succession, in working with the steering committee, in carrying out special tasks, and in planning for the 2001 meeting.
B.2. ACC/SCN Budget and Financing 1998-2001
Against an approved core budget for 1998-1999 of $905,000, expenditures were provisionally estimated at $840,000. Owing in part to a generous grant from the Government of Norway to cover costs of the 26 th Session, total contributions to the core budget for 1998-1999 are expected to be $929,000. This produces a surplus for the 1998-1999 period of about $89,000. This amount would be used to cover: a) any shortfall in core contributions for 2000-2001; b) a cash balance required by WHO on 1 January 2000 enabling the host agency to start paying the ACC/SCNs expenses pending receipt of contributions, and c) any substantial increase in US dollar expenditures resulting from unfavourable developments in the US dollar/Swiss Franc relationship.
The core budget for 2000-2001, proposed at $861,000, continues to cover the cost of the Secretariat. This figure assumes that WHO will continue to provide office accommodation and other services to the Secretariat at no charge to the ACC/SCN. With the decision for the AGN to be in abeyance (see item D below), the Technical Secretary is authorized to use the amount of $45,000 for experts needed in working groups and for executing peer review and other functions that the AGN fulfilled. In clarification of the text on page 2 of the document ACC/SCN Budget and Financing 1998-2001 . last sentence, it was suggested that the text should read: "The coordination of the core function is carried out by " The proposed list of contributions to be paid by participating UN agencies totalled $899,000. While this amount exceeds the amount budgeted, there is the possibility that one or two smaller contributions may not be received. Disbursements of ACC/SCNs expenses are handled by WHO. In order to facilitate WHOs task in this respect the UN agencies are asked to pay their contributions promptly. The ACC/SCN approved the core budget for the period 2000-2001 in the amount of $861,000 unanimously.
Programme Budget, Carried out Subject to Funds Raised 1998-2001
The budget document presented the status of work in progress, accompanied by a table showing contributions (for 1998-1999) made or pledged, by donor, for programme activities, as well as the estimated cost of each activity. Financing was assured for each programme activity for the current biennium; the total estimated cost being $989,000. The Fourth Report on the World Nutrition Situation will be published in December 1999; quarterly reports of the Refugee Nutrition Information System are being issued; three Nutrition Policy Papers will be issued, as well as four issues of SCN News . These activities will be continued in the biennium 2000-2001. Proposed programme expenditures for the biennium 2000-2001 total $964,000. The ACC/SCN approved the programme activities, subject to funds becoming available, it being understood that minor adjustments may be made in light of available funds. During the discussion several agencies, WHO in particular, commended the Secretariat for providing a clear and transparent record of financial status.
B.3 Date and Place of Next meeting
The 27 th Session will take place from 10-15 April 2000. The Session will be hosted by UNICEF either in its headquarters in New York or at one of its regional offices. The Symposium theme will be confirmed by the steering committee. There was support for a symposium on "Nutrition 2000: A stocktaking and challenges for the future", to include issues of strategy, community and the global context .
B.4 The Advisory Group on Nutrition
Given the changing needs of the ACC/SCN and its Secretariat, as well as the growth in professional nutrition expertise within the ACC/SCN, it was decided to hold the AGN in abeyance for one year, pending recommendations of the steering committee. No appointments were made.
A. Report of the Advisory Group on Nutrition (AGN)
The AGN met for one day and a half (April 8 and 9) in Geneva, under the chairmanship of Dr Ricardo Uauy. The AGN considered a range of agenda items pertinent to the work of the ACC/SCN and its Secretariat. A summary of recommendations is as follows.
Conflict of Interest . The Chair of the AGN pointed out that full disclosure of not only potential conflict of financial interest of AGN members but also of other influences which may affect an AGN members opinion is warranted. This is preferable to requesting a members temporary exclusion. To this effect, the AGN suggesteds a change in wording of the ACC/SCN Potential Conflict of Interest Disclosure Statement to include self reporting of interests which may influence members independent opinion. The AGN further recommended that past members of the AGN should be invited to the AGN meeting when attendance falls below six.
Fourth Report on the World Nutrition Situation . The AGN noted the overall approach to the Fourth Report on the World Nutrition Situation such as the life cycle approach in analyzing nutritional status. The AGN recommended that the elderly should be regarded as a distinct sub-set of the adult population in future reports. The implications of HIV/AIDS on nutrition, particularly in Africa, should be considered in future reports.
Documenting Successful Programmes . The AGN noted that several UN agencies are involved in similar initiatives and recommended that the Secretariat should coordinate closely with these in order to maximize the usefulness of these publications. During discussion, the UNDP proposed that in order to more effectively learn lessons from the past it was necessary to critically examine unsuccessful programmes as well, not only successful programmes.
Commission Report . The AGN suggested that the report of the ACC/SCN Commission on Nutrition Challenges for the 21 st Century should be published as an ACC/SCN document, and that a shorter version oriented towards policy makers should be translated into several UN languages and circulated. The AGN discussed the implementation of the Commissions recommendations and endorsed capacity-building activities as a way to move forward.
The Chair of the AGN summarized the ACC/SCN Editorial Policy and a Policy on Web Site Links to the ACC/SCN Site.
The Refugee Nutrition Information System . The AGN concurred with the need to include in the RNIS information on the victims of natural disasters. During the discussion WFP and UNHCR raised concerns about incorporating natural disasters on a regular basis. Natural disasters come in cycles, in addition the data required to document nutrition under these circumstances must come from different sources, not those usually employed by the RNIS.
The Draft General Comment on the Right to Food . The AGN identified a lack of clear operational definition and tools to evaluate the implementation of the Right to Food within the legal context at a national level, and suggested that the ACC/SCN Working Group on Nutrition, Ethics and Human Rights take up this issue. During the discussion Norway stressed the need to involve country representatives in the process of finalizing instruments important for reporting. WANAHR reminded the ACC/SCN to take the opportunity to provide information by the end of April to the Chair of the Committee on the Economic, Social and Cultural Rights and proposed that the Working Group on Nutrition, Ethics and Human Rights do this on behalf of the ACC/SCN.
Zinc Nutrition. The AGN examined a proposal sent by Dr Ken Brown to the Secretariat to establish an international advisory panel on zinc nutrition under ACC/SCN auspices. Given the present status of zinc deficiency and its policy implications, the AGN supported the proposal. The matter was further discussed during the business meeting. It was decided that the Secretariat should not convene a zinc advisory panel, and further that WHO, UNU and UNICEF review findings from existing work on zinc that is underway in seven countries. These agencies will report back to the appropriate working group next year.
Other matters . The AGN suggested one change to the AGN terms of reference: rather than "fund raising" it should say "mobilize opinion and resources".
B. Report of the Commission on the "Nutrition Challenges of the Twenty-First Century: What Role for the United Nations?"
The Commission was formed at the 1997 IUNS Conference in Montreal, and chaired by Professor Philip James. Terms of reference had been agreed upon at the 25 th Session in Kathmandu. Professor James noted that the Commission held five meetings and received a great deal of input from UN agencies, bilaterals, NGOs, and ACC/SCN Working Groups. Working as an independent body, the Commission acknowledged responsibility for the mix of recommendations that appear in its report, and offered to make editorial changes noted during this Session.
The Commission was charged with examining nutritional problems emerging in the 21 st century, and the problem of persistent malnutrition. They found that effective progress in controlling severe or clinical vitamin A deficiency and iodine deficiency is being made, but noted very high rates of stunting and underweight especially in South Asia.
Commission recommendations to the UN and other agencies: improve the speed of response mechanisms and capacity to integrate global data; take creative and coherent progressive action. The academic community, not as effective as they should be, needs to improve capacity-building mechanisms. UNU and IUNS need to re-consider their role, perhaps combining civil efforts with academic developments. A formal mechanism recommended by the Commission was to establish National Nutrition Councils, though avoiding weaknesses of earlier attempts.
The Commission was thanked by all ACC/SCN participants for this thought-provoking and challenging document. WHO supported the issues that the report brought to the forefront but offered several criticisms. Some of the data (especially numbers undernourished) differ from that published by UN agencies. New mechanisms, strategies, and approaches are proposed for UN agencies although the Commission did not analyse the UN's current mechanisms. Progress and achievements at country level are not adequately addressed.
FAO endorsed the need to bring these issues to the attention of agencies and the public. They agreed there is a need for accelerated action in coping with the problems in a multidisciplinary manner and that interagency action should address the issues of poverty, food insecurity and health in an integrated manner. FAO suggested the Commission report was an overly ambitious task ranging from undernutrition to biotechnology to world trade issues and human rights. FAO agreed with WHO regarding institutional innovations and that the UN system should learn how to utilize those already in place. Generally, FAO could not endorse the report as written but considered it a source from which to move forward
UNICEF recommended a document of approximately ten pages be extracted and edited for policy makers and political leaders. USAID concurred that a ten-page executive summary would be a stronger tool, than a large technical report. UNU welcomed this independent review. The challenges posed by the Commission to the nutrition community were acknowledged. UNU offered to publish the full report on behalf of the ACC/SCN if desired. UNU agreed with the suggestion to produce a ten-page executive summary. UNDP stated that it might be useful to consider adding agency commentaries to the final publication in which agencies could provide supplementary information, conclusions and recommendations in reaction to and in order to complement the independent report of the Commissio n. A similar approach is used successfully in the CGIAR.
The World Bank considered the report a call to the ACC/SCN that more needs to be done in nutrition, and noted that the Commission had been unable to review agencies achievements and constraints. Regarding data used in the report, it was felt that changing the numbers would not substantially change the Commissions recommendations. The Asian Development Bank described how the document influenced deliberations on nutrition policy in house and was used to allocate funds using life-cycle arguments. ADB public policy staff felt this was a sound approach and hoped that the ACC/SCN becomes an active peer-reviewer of the ADB investment in this area.
The AGN Chair, as a member of the Commission . commented that the Commission experienced some difficulties in receiving comments back from some UN agencies. The Commission was unable to consider two critical reviews which did not reach the Secretariat in a timely manner. It was felt the implementation aspect of the report was weak and provided little guidance for capacity building, social mobilization and action in general at the national level. The document was informative but should prioritize actions and highlight major points more effectively.
Norway posed the question: with such rapid changes occurring in the world, and the need for reform, can the UN meet these challenges? Germany expressed a concern that the Barker hypothesis could be used to narrow investments in nutrition solely to prevention of intra-uterine growth retardation, whereas the human right to adequate food and nutrition is universal, and does not discriminate by age.
The Chairman summarized five action points:
The Technical Secretary will work with WHO, FAO, UNICEF and World Bank representatives to correct the data presented in the Commission Report.
As an independent Commission Report, references implying agreement or endorsement by the ACC/SCN in the document should be deleted.
Any suggestion that the ACC/SCN endorses the Commission Report should be deleted.
The Commission Report will be published solely as a report "to the ACC/SCN" and not as part of the ACC/SCN Nutrition Policy Paper series.
Agencies comments on the Commission Report could be included in the document before being published. A disclaimer stating that views in the Report do not necessarily represent those of the agencies making up the ACC/SCN will be included.
The Technical Secretary introduced the Fourth Report, an outline for which was discussed in detail at the 25 th Session. This Report is being prepared jointly with the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). A full draft will be circulated for review in late July 1999; the publication date is December 1999. The Report draws on material from the UN agencies as much as possible. Preliminary results on trends in preschool underweight were presented. These estimates were produced by the WHO Nutrition Department for the ACC/SCN using the direct methods recommended by Dr. Tim Cole in his review paper on methodology. It was noted that the WHO Global Database on Child Growth and Development is now available on the Web at http://www. who. int/nutgrowthdb.
Sweden expressed concern that the Report should disaggregate nutrition trend data by age and gender. It was noted that the WHO Database is already disaggregated by age and sex. The Secretariat confirmed that adult BMI data would be disaggregated by sex. The UK requested a section on the elderly, given that this population is growing so rapidly. This might encourage systematic data collection on the nutritional status of the elderly and persuade governments to consider the problem of nutrition in the elderly. The Secretariat responded that a section on the elderly will be included in the Report and also noted that the December 1999 edition of the SCN News will focus on nutrition of the elderly.
The problem of disaggregating the data by country within a region was discussed. The Secretariat noted that the methodology employed to estimate trends does not allow analysis using single countries only, but those interested in data from single countries may refer to the WHO Database on the web. The Fourth Report will use the UN Population Division regions and sub-regions because (a) this is the format acceptable to most of the agencies, and (b) this definition is closer to geographical reality and hence is more easily understood by non-UN users. The Chairman suggested that the ACC/SCN might like to suggest to the ACC that the UN agencies should attempt to harmonize their definitions of regions in the future.
Several speakers noted that most of the Report is concerned with trends in nutritional status but there is little information on trends in the determinants of nutritional status, e. g. diet, morbidity and access to health care. The World Bank suggested that Chapter 3 be revised to incorporate underlying and basic causes of malnutrition. Norway noted that it is possible to estimate trends in the amount of breastmilk produced and that this information would be useful as an advocacy tool. The Secretariat responded that there will be a section on the causes of childhood malnutrition. The Chairman remarked that suggestions on possible indicators of the determinants of nutritional status which could be easily collected would be most welcome.
The issue of data collection for future ACC/SCN publications, particularly the reports on the World Nutrition Situation, was brought up by UNU. UNU recommended that a process for drafting outlines for the Fifth and Sixth Reports be initiated with a clear eye to emerging issues (.e. g. non-communicable disease and important determinants of nutrition-related problems.) The Chairman asked the participants to consider how the ACC/SCN and the UN agencies could obtain better data in the future with these goals in mind and the objective of influencing survey activities.
The World Alliance for Nutrition and Human Rights (WANAHR) commented that some of the data presented should be re-framed in terms of human rights and strategic plans, e. g. shortfalls from goals could be presented as well as actual status. It was further noted that the section on human rights should stand on its own. This section will probably be descriptive for now but it is hoped that as indicators are developed to measure progress towards a human rights approach to nutrition that it will become more quantitative.
Sweden suggested that a section describing the national plans of actions (NPANS) should be included for advocacy and strategic purposes. The Secretariat noted that it is not possible to include an analysis of NPANS in the Fourth Report without major input from WHO and FAO. WHO and FAO have information on the national plans of 173 countries and are undertaking an analysis of this information which they will share with the ACC/SCN when it is ready. Sweden further commented that the country updates which were previously published as supplements to the World Reports were useful tools for planners and policy makers with a non-nutritional background. Norway suggested that the Report could highlight the dangerous plight of those working for agencies in emergency situations. The Chairman noted that this might be more appropriate for the RNIS. PAHO offered to collaborate in producing a box on complementary feeding.
D. 1 life cycle consequences of foetal and infant malnutrition -- Report of the Working Group
(Chaired by UNU, UNICEF served as Rapporteur)
The mandate of this group is to assess the lasting significance of the nutritional and health status of the mother during pregnancy as it affects the development of the foetus and the infant. This group noted clear evidence that folic acid deficiency in early pregnancy contributes to neural tube defects, iodine deficiency in pregnancy shifts the distribution of IQ and iron deficiency in infancy has a similar effect as does undernutrition before two years of age. The group also discussed the origins, evidence and criticisms of the Barker hypothesis at length. Low birth weight (LBW) in the UK earlier in this century appears to have increased the adult onset of hypertension, coronary heart disease, diabetes and some other chronic degenerative diseases. This concept has been supported by studies from a number of other countries. The results of the 1996 workshop on the Causes and Consequences of Intra Uterine Growth Retardation (IUGR) sponsored by the International Dietary Energy Consultative Group (IDECG) reinforced these conclusions. IUGR is a major public health problem in most developing countries. Despite a World Summit for Children goal of reducing the prevalence of LBW to 10% or less, globally 20.5 million LBW babies are born each year -- 16.4% of all newborns in developing countries.
WHO and PAHO stated that reduction of LBW is a priority and improving essential obstetric practices has been emphasized. In 1998 PAHO held a workshop to review the appropriateness of anthropometric indicators during pregnancy. Other agencies stressed the need to present LBW prevention programmes as part of reproductive health care programmes, and the importance of the Barker hypothesis for policy makers. UNICEF and the World Bank in collaboration with ICCDR, B will hold a meeting in Bangladesh in June 1999 to explore issues related to LBW and IUGR.
Conclusions and priorities for action from the Group:
there is a need to establish a core research protocol to investigate a longitudinal relationship between IUGR and disease in later life in different populations;
programmes which address IUGR should be based on the Care for Women component of the UNICEF Care Initiative;
there is a need to identify and document best practices for the prevention of LBW which could be integrated into new comprehensive programmes, including monitoring and evaluation;
the successful approaches of Chile, Cuba and Costa Rica to reduce LBW should be reviewed for lessons to be learned;
this new working group should be continued in order to provide the ACC/SCN with an annual critical assessment of developing scientific evidence and to stimulate research and policy formulation and programme guidelines on this topic;
an inter-agency meeting similar to the iron consensus workshop could usefully explore these issues in greater depth;
the ACC/SCN should consider a proposal from SIDA and Uppsala University for an international meeting in the year 2000 which will focus on women and nutrition, especially adolescent girls.
D.2 Vitamin A and iron -- Report of the Working Group
(Chaired by UNICEF, Helen Keller International served as Rapporteur)
This Group reported that while some progress was being made, there was irrefutable evidence that vitamin A deficiency (VAD) was still widespread among children in the developing world. USAID, UNICEF, CIDA and the MI created a Global Initiative to secure commitment to achieving the year 2000 goal of eliminating vitamin A deficiency and to set benchmarks for countries unable to reach that goal by December 1997. Progress of the Global Vitamin A Initiative was reported as follows:
43 of 64 countries with VAD added vitamin A to national immunization days (NIDs);
about 60% of children in sub-Saharan Africa received at least one dose of vitamin A in the last six months of 1998, doubling coverage from two years ago;
globally 34 countries report over 80% coverage, mostly through NIDs;
almost 400 million capsules provided by CIDA;
significant new funding is available from CIDA for implementation of VAD programmes.
There was extensive discussion on the importance of other strategies, besides supplementation, to combat vitamin A deficiency. Biochemical assessment is one method to monitor the progress of the Global Initiative, and the need for reference laboratories in countries where vitamin A deficiency is a public health problem was discussed. Potential laboratories in Africa have been identified and reference materials, inventory of protocols and facilities, and on-site visits will be the basis for further training and follow-up.
The Iron Deficiency Anaemia Database was described. According to WHO, eighty percent of the world's population are likely to be suffering from iron deficiency. Thirty specialists attended a Technical Workshop at UNICEF in New York in October 1998 to resolve issues using a practical, field-oriented, science-based approach to preventing iron deficiency in women and children. This Workshop highlighted the need for greater attention to iron nutrition, given the massive economic and social costs of iron deficiency. Further, effective and feasible programme interventions are available. There was also discussion regarding multiple micronutrient supplementation and it was concluded that dietary intake of several micronutrients is often inadequate; that micronutrient status needs improvement not only during pregnancy but pre - and post-natally. The Group also stressed the importance of improving dietary intakes.
D.3 Breastfeeding and Complementary Feeding -- Report of the Working Group
(Chaired by UNICEF, WHO served as Rapporteur)
Recommendations for ACC/SCN action are:
All implementing agencies should adopt a rights-based approach to all their infant feeding programmes.
Maternity Legislation: The Working Group requests the Secretariat to utilize its good offices to approach the new Director General of ILO and express concern over the process towards the re-negotiation of the Maternity Protection Convention. In particular, the question should be raised as to whether the rights of working mothers and the importance of exclusive breastfeeding in assuring the child's right to the highest attainable standard of health have been duly considered by the ILO Secretariat in the drafting of the questionnaire and subsequent report to be considered by the International Labour Conference.
The Care Approach - Early Childhood Care for Survival, Growth and Development: An intersectoral rights-based approach to child survival growth and development should be adopted by all implementing bodies.
Complementary feeding: The Breastfeeding Counseling training course and its complementary feeding component needs to be more widely implemented, particularly in countries affected by the HIV epidemic to counter the tendency to abandon breastfeeding protection, promotion and support.
International Code of Marketing of Breast-milk Substitutes: In the context of mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) of HIV, global implementation of the International Code of Marketing of Breast-milk Substitutes and subsequent relevant WHA resolutions need to be accelerated and strengthened. UNICEF should prepare a briefing note explaining the continued relevance of the Code in the context of prevention of MTCT of HIV, explaining particularly the provisions concerning free and low cost supplies. It was suggested that ACC/SCN strongly encourage UNAIDS colleagues to attend the next Session of this Working Group.
The Baby Friendly Hospital Initiative: Implementation of BFHI needs to continue and be strengthened.
Economic Value of Breastfeeding: The Benefits of Breastfeeding Model for assessing the economic value of breastfeeding (BOB) should be used more widely to advocate for the introduction and strengthening of breastfeeding policies and programmes.
D.4 nutrition, ethics and human rights -- Report of the Working Group
(Chaired by UNICEF, the NGO WANAHR served as Rapporteur)
Dedicating the Symposium at the 26 th Session to the theme of nutrition and human rights was evidence that human rights are taking hold in the development work of the ACC/SCN and its member agencies. The question was no longer whether a rights-based approach should be adopted, but rather how it should be applied. The World Food Summit's renewed focus on the right to adequate food and the UN Secretary-General's reform proposals calling for the mainstreaming of human rights in all UN activities, have contributed significantly to creating an overall environment conducive to bringing an ethics and rights dimension to the fight against hunger and poverty.
The overall recommendation of the Group: To live up to the challenge of completing its unfinished agenda, the ACC/SCN needs to lift its human rights concerns from an isolated working group activity into the mainstream of its overall work programme. This must also be reflected in the ACC/SCN's resource mobilization and allocation within the work programme.
Recommendations for ACC/SCN action are:
The ACC/SCN should institutionalize collaborative mechanisms with the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (HCHR) to advance human rights approaches to nutrition problems. An important element of this activity is facilitating the flow of information regarding the experiences of ACC/SCN member agencies in adopting a human rights approach, including agency initiatives for internal capacity building. The Working Group will compile these experiences for the Secretariat.
The Working Group should initiate work on developing appropriate indicators for monitoring the right to nutrition, in particular the right to food, by ACC/SCN member agencies and the HCHR.
In response to the recommendation by the chairpersons of the Committees and of the Second Consultation organized by the HCHR and co-hosted by FAO on November 11, 1998, the Working Group should collaborate in the preparation of a meeting on the role of the international financial institutions in the realization of economic, social and cultural rights.
The Working Group should prepare a report for the next annual ACC/SCN session on the experience from the UNDAF process in adopting a human rights approach to nutrition.
The Working Group should pay special attention to the realization of the right to nutrition in emergency situations as part of its activities in between annual ACC/SCN sessions.
D.5 household food security -- Report of the Working Group
(Chaired by World Bank, IFPRI served as Rapporteur)
The Working Group identified three topics from last year's Session that needed to be taken forward: the interagency collaboration in food security programmes; operational methods for the targeting of food security interventions; and how to integrate household food security into sector-wide approaches. Presentations were given by FAO on locating food security at the national and regional levels using the Food Insecurity and Vulnerability Information Mapping Systems (FIVIMS); by IFPRI regarding targeting of projects at the community level; by UNHCR on targeting food aid in emergencies within communities and by Helen Keller International on targeting in the context of an economic crisis.
The Working Group proposed the following areas of work for 1999-2000:
Explore the linkages between macro changes and food security at household and community level: It was suggested that the linkages between macro changes, including trade and economic and sectoral reforms, and efforts to address household food security at local level should be highlighted. One possibility may be to hold a symposium on this with international financial institutions including the World Bank, the IMF and World Trade Organization (WTO). The Working Group should explore this option in consultation with the Working Group on Nutrition, Ethics and Human Rights.
Operationalization of a rights based approach to programming of household food security programmes: Case studies of innovative programmes which demonstrate the practical application of a rights based approach to nutrition and food security should be prepared by agencies for discussion at future meetings.
Urban food insecurity: Urban food security is a growing concern, yet receives little attention. The Working Group should review the evidence on trends in urban food insecurity, coping strategies and policies and programmes.
D.6 nutrition in emergencies -- Report of the Working Group
(Co-chaired by WFP and UNHCR, the NGO MSF-Holland served as Rapporteur)
This Working Group addressed the evolution of nutrition responses in emergencies from 1976 and the impact of the recent nutrition crisis in South Sudan on adolescents and adults.
Recommendations for ACC/SCN action are:
The need for programmes targeting adults and adolescents should be systematically investigated as part of any famine relief response.
The ACC/SCN should take up the issue of adult and adolescent malnutrition to further standardise criteria and protocols, to determine survey methodology and population prevalence cut-offs for malnutrition, and to develop a common operational research agenda to prevent duplication of time and resources. WHO offered to take the lead on these issues.
New strategies are needed to manage and implement infant feeding in emergencies amongst populations with a high rate of formula feeding prior to displacement.
The RNIS should be enhanced to (i) include more reports from U. S. NGOs, and (ii) provide reports from the field on a timely basis through E-mail or on the ACC/SCN website. The Secretariat will take action on this.
The Working Group also recommended that the chair of the group be rotated. UNICEF offered to chair, and WHO to serve as rapporteur.
D.7 Iodine Deficiency disorders
This Working Group did not meet during the ACC/SCN 26 th Session but presented a report on behalf of WHO, UNICEF and ICCIDD describing in detail the many activities undertaken over the last year. Significant progress has been made towards IDD elimination: it is estimated that 18% of IDD-affected countries have reached the goal of universal salt iodization, defined as more than 90% of the households having access to iodized salt. Over the past year activities concentrated on increasing salt iodisation coverage, assessment and monitoring, and training. Work also included:
Organization of intercountry micronutrient workshops, for example Swaziland (1998)
Planning meetings for the Salt 2000 symposium at the Hague
An IDD assessment in Latin America (Colombia)
Publications: Hyperthyroidism and other thyroid disorders. C. Todd. (In collaboration with ICCIDD), in press.
The goal of IDD elimination is within reach. However, success will only be achieved with sustained and continued effort. The challenge for the forthcoming year is two-fold: first to introduce salt iodisation in the 35 affected countries where it has not yet been implemented; second to sustain salt iodisation programmes. This is especially important in light of experience in some industrialized countries where iodine status has deteriorated.
Recommendations include:
Governments should re-commit themselves to the elimination of IDD and mobilise human technical resources towards this goal by facilitating collaboration between the relevant sectors. Health, trade and legislation sectors need to work closely together, something they may be unfamiliar with.
Systems to monitor the quality of iodized salt as well as the iodine status of the population need to be put in place. This implies reinforcing existing laboratories or developing a network of regional or sub-regional laboratories able to cover countries without properly equipped laboratories.
Governments should adopt and enforce legislation on iodized salt.
The UN agencies' separate meeting had a rich and fundamental review of the workings of the ACC/SCN. There was consensus on the need to make a range of structural and procedural changes that would strengthen the effectiveness of the ACC/SCN as a coordinating mechanism for UN agencies. The main agenda items included:
The working arrangements of the ACC/SCN
The role of the AGN
The Strategic Plan of Action
Symposium Topics for the 27 th Session
The selection of the Chair
E. 1 The Working Arrangements of the ACC/SCN
This discussion focused on the structure of the annual meeting. It was proposed that:
The UN agencies should meet together at the beginning of the ACC/SCN Session to update each other on nutrition activities undertaken during the preceding year, identify key scientific and operational issues, harmonize regional workplans and develop joint initiatives to be undertaken during the year.
Where possible, regional nutrition advisers of the UN agencies should be brought to the Session. UNICEF, WHO and FAO thought this might be possible. In addition, and for some agencies as an alternative, regional nutrition advisers might meet within their region.
The bilateral and NGO members of the ACC/SCN should be included in all the subsequent business meetings of the ACC/SCN as they have important, and indeed invaluable, roles to play in both technical discussions and in the formation of plans of action. The broadly inclusive nature of the ACC/SCN was reaffirmed as one of the unique strengths of this sub-committee, and an essential characteristic that must be preserved.
E.2 The Role of the AGN
The following points arose from the discussion:
Historically, the AGN was introduced into the tripartite structure of the ACC/SCN at the request of the bilaterals in order to provide independent nutrition expertise to the UN agencies. The principle of making use of independent expertise was reconfirmed. The valuable work that the AGN has contributed in the past was commended by all present and the commitment of the AGN members to the ACC/SCN was much appreciated.
Since its establishment, however, the base of nutrition expertise within the ACC/SCN has grown significantly and there now exists experienced nutrition professionals in most bilateral and UN agencies. This expertise will be strengthened further if the plan to invite regional advisers of the UN agencies to the ACC/SCN meetings is adopted.
The ACC/SCN has also developed a wider network of contacts in the nutrition world, including groups such as International Union of Nutritional Sciences (IUNS) and various technical expert committees. It was suggested that the links between these groups and the ACC/SCN could be strengthened informally and that they could be asked to fulfil some of the roles of the AGN.
If the AGN were to be dismantled, the funds previously used to cover their travels costs could be used to employ outside expertise in matters where the ACC/SCN has insufficient expertise and/or to strengthen the work of the working groups. Thus a "demand driven system for expertise" would be introduced.
The current two-year terms of all AGN members would expire at the close of the 26 th Session. If the AGN is dismantled new strategies would be needed to fulfil the tasks currently carried out by the AGN. UNU offered to assist the Secretariat in setting up a peer review process.
The UN agencies proposed that the AGN should be held in abeyance for a one-year period. An interim programme steering committee should be appointed with a one-year life span. Its terms of reference would include identifying the best way to execute the tasks traditionally carried out by the AGN. These tasks include providing peer review for ACC/SCN publications and technical proposals that come to the SCN; advising ACC/SCN members on critical aspects of programme implementation at the national and regional level; providing external review of the effectiveness of the UN system work on nutrition; representing civil society and proposing ways to enhance action at the national level.
It was envisaged that the work of the steering committee would be advisory in nature and undertaken through electronic communication and/or conference calls. It was suggested that the committee should be composed of representatives of FAO, UNDP, UNICEF, the World Bank, WHO, an NGO representative, a bilateral representative and the current AGN chairman. The committee will confer regularly with other ACC/SCN members.
Finally, several agencies suggested that it was desirable for FAO to contribute to the ACC/SCN budget given that FAO will be represented on the steering committee. The FAO representatives said that they felt positively about the changes suggested and would discuss the matter with the appropriate persons at headquarters, and would recommend that FAOs funding position be reconsidered.
E.3 The Strategic Plan for Accelerating Nutrition Improvement at Country Level
In addressing the issues of the ACC/SCN Draft Strategic Plan, the UN agencies focussed on the implementation aspects of improving interagency collaboration for nutrition. The main points which arose from this discussion were:
The World Bank proposed three major activities: an advocacy campaign at the global level based on the Report of the Commission on the Nutrition Challenges of the Twenty First Century; a joint project by two or more agencies in each region on a specific theme. For example, the World Bank is teaming up with UNICEF in Africa; and Global initiatives on adolescent and maternal malnutrition.
Similarly, ADB and UNICEF announced their plans for a regional nutrition meeting in Asia in September aimed at formulating a major initiative in Asia They suggested that representatives from UNDP and the NGOs should participate in the meeting. The group could then report back to the ACC/SCN at the 27 th Session, with recommendations and suggestions concerning the usefulness of inter-agency regional level nutrition meetings and on the directions of that initiative.
General agreement was reached on the need to work through the UNDAF process in all regional and country level initiatives and on the usefulness of such initiatives to bring the CDF and CCA processes in line in a few selected countries.
ADB proposed to draft a "clarion Call for Action" statement from the 26 th Session to stress the paradigm shifts discussed at this meeting. This would probably take the form of a brief statement, aimed at policy makers, and should emphasise human rights dimensions. The brief must emphasize the costs of inaction on the part of the international community in order to elevate nutrition concerns within and across UN agencies.
E.4 Symposium Topic for the 27 th Session
Three themes were proposed for the year 2000 Symposium:
Nutritional Stocktaking and the Challenges Ahead - it was felt that this theme could give the ACC/SCN a chance to focus inwards on its achievements and needs
Global change in the 21 st Century - focusing on advances in biotechnology and its effects on food safety and food availability
Globalisation and Nutrition - focusing on the effects of the WTO and global trade agreements, the demographic transition, the information revolution and the globalisation of threats to human health, on the world nutritional situation.
The bilaterals discussed a number of items relating to the ACC/SCN Agenda:
Commission Report on Challenges in the 21 Century . The bilaterals welcomed the report. An adequate and attractive executive summary needs to be elaborated. A one-to-two page policy brief is needed as an advocacy tool for use within agencies, member countries, UN agencies and the ACC. The brief should be written by a journalist for a non-nutrition audience. There is a need to alert agencies and governments of the speed of change in the field of nutrition and global nutrition problems as described by the Commission.
ACC/SCN Strategic Plan. A good beginning had been made but considerable work is needed to transform the current draft into a strategic plan. The openness of the text is impressive, but the Plan is not sufficiently country-driven and does not acknowledge the difficulty of country-level collaboration by UN agencies. Since neither the bilaterals nor the ACC/SCN members have the necessary expertise, the appropriate expert assistance should be recruited to develop a practical framework with countries as the prime actors. In addition, a planning group should be formed, which includes the main agencies, to guide the development of the Strategic Plan. The Strategic Plan should be written in relation to the ICN, the World Food Summit and the Convention on the Rights of the Child.
ACC/SCN Budget. The bilaterals are pleased with the presentation of the ACC/SCN budget.
Year 2000 Symposium. The bilaterals suggests the topic Globalization and Nutrition. The symposium should highlight the impact of macro level issues (for example trade liberalization, economic crisis, world prices) on the micro level. The objective of the symposium should guide the decision on venue of the next Session. The bilaterals appreciate the offer of joint sponsorship by the World Bank and UNICEF. If the symposium is intended to be purely informational, then, finances permitting, holding the next meeting in a developing country, possibly linked to a regional office of an ACC/SCN member, should be considered.
Successful Nutrition Programmes . It is important to learn from successful nutrition programmes. However, further work done by the ACC/SCN on documenting successful programmes should be done with caution, wherever possible using unbiased external evaluation results. Further work would also benefit from identifying and reviewing new examples through a process of consultation with governments. Finally, one goal of continued work in this area would be to realistically define the likely impact expected from even the most successfully implemented projects. This will help avoid over-ambitious planning and goal setting, which too often unfairly labels nutrition projects as failures.
Zinc: Proposal for a Working Group. The bilaterals recommend that the ACC/SCN consider having one micronutrient group only. This working group can assume responsibility for its own agenda from year to year and the micronutrients that will receive most attention from year to year. The bilaterals repeated their wish to see a greater emphasis on food-based strategies, communication and monitoring and evaluation for addressing all micronutrient deficiencies. On the issue of funding, before accepting funds from a new source, the ACC/SCN should proceed with caution in relation to potential conflict of interest.
IDD: World Health Assembly (WHA) Resolution. The bilaterals note the text of the May 1999 WHA resolution on IDD and will study it in their own countries. All stakeholders are urged to expand and consolidate ongoing programmes in support of IDD control and elimination. Issues of sustainability, monitoring and quality control are important.
HIV and Infant Feeding. The bilaterals expressed their concern at the way the issue of HIV transmission from mother to child via breastmilk is being addressed by the UN system. UNAIDS absence from the ACC/SCN discussion was noted. The research basis for the new UNAIDS/WHO/UNICEF guidelines needs to be expanded, particularly regarding the use of breastmilk based feeding regimens, such as short periods of exclusive breastfeeding, heat treatment of expressed milk, use of milk from breastmilk banks, and wet nursing. The bilaterals are concerned that, with no extra resources, WHO and UNICEF are required to work on the implementation and pilot testing of these guidelines. This has forced the diversion of staff time and other resources away from ongoing breastfeeding programmes. This is especially unfortunate given the increased need for breastfeeding protection and promotion that the implementation of these guidelines will require in order to prevent a spillover effect.
Sector-wide Approached and Nutrition. Sectoral funding from some ACC/SCN and bilateral agencies is acting as a constraint to countries efforts to implement nutrition programmes in a multisectoral fashion.
Food Aid and Nutrition . The bilaterals noted the changing nature of food aid in development as well as in emergency programmes focusing on nutrition and food securityand suggested that this subject should be considered for a future ACC/SCN activity.
The ILO Convention on Maternity Protection. The bilaterals brought to the ACC/SCNs attention the ongoing review of the ILO Convention 103 on Maternity Protection. The bilaterals suggested that the ACC/SCN, through its Chairperson, approach the Director General of WHO, and decide whether one or both should approach the new Director General of ILO to consider extending the process of review and revision of ILO Convention 103.
(Chaired by WABA, Helen Keller International served as Rapporteur)
The meeting of non-governmental organizations was attended by representatives of twelve NGOs. The meeting started with a discussion on its purpose and specifically what role NGOs could play in supporting the aims of the ACC/SCN and how the ACC/SCN could promote and support the NGOs in achieving their aims. This was done by identifying the constituencies of the different players. These were thought to be:
The ACC/SCN -- the constituent UN Agencies
The UN Agencies -- their Member States
The Advisory Group on Nutrition -- the ACC/SCN
The NGOs -- the beneficiaries in countries.
The NGOs involved in food and nutrition are very diverse. Activities and mandates range from evidence-based scientific groups such as IUNS; science-based advisory, advocacy and service organizations such as ICCIDD, WABA; emergency situation NGOs such as ACF, Action Against Hunger, CARE, CONCERN; service organizations such as national NGOs; international NGOs and PVOs such as Helen Keller International; advocacy NGOs such as IBFAN and WANAHR; local NGOs such as those attending the Session several years ago in Ghana; and others such as the South African Human Rights Commission. This diversity has both strengths and constraints in speaking with more or less one voice. However, the need to be responsive to diverse clients is shared. Other common factors are advocacy, training, capacity building, providing expertise and information, and being operational in the field. These roles are useful to the UN agencies.
More specifically some of the mutual benefits discussed were:
The NGOs are appreciative of the role the ACC/SCN plays, and appreciate being part of a process that encourages openness and stream-lining. The NGOs present felt they could assist in this process, by offering a somewhat different perspective and representing their clients.
In an age of increasing specialization and reduction in staff in the agencies, the NGOs are an obvious and in some cases essential pool of expertise for implementation on the ground for the UN agencies.
Given the on-the-ground experience (e. g. in emergencies but also in on-going country implementation) the NGOs are more clearly aware of the circumstances in-country, and have the relative freedom to bring issues to the attention of the agencies. NGOs could therefore be a conduit for the needs of the beneficiaries to the policy levels of the agencies through the ACC/SCN. NGOs can bring to the agencies attention the need to strengthen Agency in-country activities and the need to correct deficiencies.
The publications of the ACC/SCN such as the World Nutrition Situation Reports are very useful and widely read.
Agencies sometimes have problems coordinating sub-regionally and all partners should look for ways this might be improved, and NGOs could help.
Advantages of maintaining a grouping of NGOs:
The NGOs group could help define how involved NGOs could work more effectively together.
NGOs involved in emergencies should have a common voice and be heard, especially during emergencies, by the UN agencies.
Some sort of overt support or statement of support from the ACC/SCN to active NGOs would be helpful when seeking funds. This should not prejudice freedom of action, and the right to bring criticisms to the table.
As coordination is one of ACC/SCNs roles, an NGO group could help the NGOs coordinate amongst themselves according to expertise and this needs to be explored further. Information exchange was also seen as a mutually helpful activity.
Other points:
There was some surprise in the group that while the NGOs generally find the ACC/SCN important in combating malnutrition, and addressing food and nutrition issues globally, not all UN agencies are supportive of the ACC/SCN, and some do not even contribute. There was a view expressed, with a broad degree of support, that the agencies most concerned with food and nutrition and health issues could be more pro-active and take a more visible profile. The example of environmental issues was given as an example, where NGOs had been able to play a major role in the higher profile environmental issues now have in the agencies (and subsequent action - which would not have taken place without NGO strong advocacy). Possibly the NGOs here could have a similar role in helping food and nutrition issues have the importance they deserve at national, and global level, and in the agencies. The NGOs would be able to help in this regard. About 30 NGOs are represented at the ACC/SCN. Other key NGOs could be identified and involved. An NGO Working Group on Nutrition could be formed.
Recommendations:
That the NGO meeting be scheduled by the Secretariat in the same manner as the bilateral meeting.
That the ACC/SCN express their continuing willingness to work with the NGOs and, in particular to demonstrate that they would be comfortable with the group acting as a critical, independent but constructive voice.
That the ACC/SCN support the idea of the continuing exploration of the role of the NGO group, although the group understands that it would be up to NGO partners involved to continue the momentum.
This segment of the 26 th Session included representatives from UN agencies, bilaterals, NGOs and the AGN. Decisions were taken on matters arising during the separate meetings held the previous day. Decisions were the following:
There was consensus on the need for a steering committee with a one-year life span. This committee will be made up of representatives of FAO, UNDP, UNICEF, the World Bank, WHO, an NGO representative, a representative of the bilaterals and the current AGN Chairman. The World Bank, UNICEF, UNDP and WANAHR offered to draft Terms of Reference. The main purpose of the committee will be to propose the content and format of the ACC/SCN Session and Symposium in 2000 and guide a restructuring process that would strengthen the activities of the ACC/SCN.
The AGN will be held in abeyance for a one year period. New mechanisms to access independent expert opinion for the ACC/SCN (for example through the UNU and its links) will be identified by the steering committee.
The working groups should work together throughout the year, not just during the ACC/SCN Session. This could be achieved via electronic mail and/or conference calls. The steering committee will identify new topics which could be addressed by working groups. The working groups will give priority to discussing follow-up on recommendations made at past meetings.
A two-to-three page advocacy document will be drafted by ADB. This is intended for use as an ACC/SCN statement for the "non-converted". The ADB will work with the SCN News Editor on this document.
A six to ten page executive summary of the Commission Report will be prepared by the Secretariat. The Secretariat will circulate a draft of this document electronically before finalizing it.
The Commission Report will be published by the Secretariat with a disclaimer on ACC/SCN endorsement. Commentaries from UN agencies could be included as part of the publication. Agencies are requested to submit their comments on the Commission Report to the Secretariat by the end of May 1999.
The bilaterals will assume responsibility for preparing sectoral briefs on nutrition. These briefs will use language pertinent to sectors and issues relevant for development such as: agriculture, health, education, environment, gender, poverty alleviation. The bilaterals will try to raise funds for this purpose and request ACC/SCN endorsement.
Several UN agencies through the UNDAF process (UNICEF, WB, UNDP) will meet with UNDG to discuss their programme ideas. The ADB will also assist with these discussions. Based on these discussions the steering committee will further develop the Draft Strategic Plan.
70. The Secretariat will circulate the proposal on documenting successful programmes and request comments and opinions as to whether this project should be taken up by the Secretariat subject to funding.
List of Participants
Chairman: Richard Jolly
Technical Secretary: Sonya Rabeneck
Symposium Chairman: Mr Bertrand Ramcharan, Deputy High Commissioner for Human Rights
Symposium Presenters . Mrs Mary Robinson, High Commissioner for Human Rights
Dr Gro Harlem Brundtland, Director-General, World Health Organization
Mr Namanga Ngongi, Deputy Executive Director, World Food Programme
China's Innovative Paradigm -- Sharing Global Prosperity Through Connectivity of the Silk Route Countries
Nake M. Kamrany Professor of Economics, University of Southern California
Frank Jiang Research member of the USC Global Income Convergence Group and a senior at USC
In sharp contrast to the 20th century hegemonic intrigue of the Western military superpowers resulting in wars, militarism and conquest, the emergence of China as an economic super-power in the 21th century ostensibly is emerging to recreate global trade and connectivity between Southeast Asia, Europe, and Africa. The idea is the brain child of China's leader Xi Jinping, whose vision is to revive the centuries-old sea routes piled by Admiral Zheng in the 15th century and the ancient caravan trade route moving from Europe to Central Asia and the Far East. The approach has the added advantage of uplifting the economies of the low and middle income countries in the Silk Road route through trade, commerce, connectivity, synergy and ripple effect.
China has decided to allocate several trillion Yuan for project construction including 10 billion Yuan specifically for port development toward economic catch-up of the silk route countries at concessionary rate. Given China's unprecedented economic growth rate of the last three decades and the experience of economic growth it has gained, it is most qualified to undertake such a huge undertaking. In addition to infusion of substantial monetary resources China has a solid track record of extraordinary economic catch-up since 1980 which augurs well for implementation of such a project.
The following attributes highlights China's ability to catch up that would be instructive for the Silk Road countries.
1) Leadership The economic innovation in China started in the early eighties beginning with Deng Xiaoping through Hu Jintao implementing innovative economic policies which lifted China's sluggish economy by introducing private ownership, market economy, less governmental control contributing to robust economic performance. A succession of leadership in China including president Hu Jinping and follow-up by the current president Xi Jinping's flexible and innovative economic policy took advantage of globalization, export orientation, attracting foreign investment, and maintaining a sound monetary and fiscal policy. China became a member of the World Trade Organization (WTO) and hosted a very successful International Olympic Games.
2) International Trade Orientation Beginning in early 1980s China shifted its economic strategy from self-sufficiency to export orientation. The shift was pivotal to the growth rate of China's GNP. Concurrently, China is building its domestic consumer sector so that in the future it will have a strong and well developed domestic market. The multi-billion dollar natural gas contract with Russia in May of 2014 will be a major plus for China's energy demand. China's drive for the development of non - fossil fuel under its 12th five year plan could make it a world leader in energy exports and offer unmatchable prices on alternative energy in the world market contributing to convergence of per capita income of the silk rout countries.
3) Growth Rate Performance The process of China's remaining catch-up time of per capita income to that of the first world is estimated to take place in approximately two decades. It follows that China's catch up time with the first world would take place in five decades starting in 1980 while it took the first world nearly 50 decades to reach its current level of per capita income. Part of the explanation is the diminishing return to capital in the first world since it is saturated with capital and return to capital has dropped. And the law of accumulation of capital due to growth rates differential between the first world's average of 2 percent annual growth and those of China with an annual growth range of 7-10 percent. The United States achieved a 2.0 percent average annual growth rate of real GDP per capita between 1891 and 2007. And its growth rate for the next couple decades may be somewhat lower than 2 percent. This means that there may exist 4-6 percent percentage point differential in growth rates that has contributed to the rising trend of annual growth rate of China. This phenomena will continue until China's per capita income reaches within 70 percent level of the first world. Then its annual growth rate will conform to the first world's annual growth rate of approximately 2 percent per year.
4) Macroeconomic Management China's sound macroeconomic management was demonstrated during the Great Recession of (2007-2009) when its export dropped 15-18 percent causing 23 million unemployed but 98 percent found jobs as the economy readily bounced back and the unemployment rate dropped to 4 percent. This performance is in sharp contrast to a number of countries where the recession is still lingering in 2014. It is most notable that China escaped three global financial meltdowns since 1990 including the Japanese severe credit implosion, the Asian economies foreign reserve meltdown caused by capital flight due to rigidity of fixed exchange rate. The great recession (2007-2009) which engulfed the world economy was contagious and China was subject to the turbulence and transmittable global meltdown but ironically China escaped. China's experience has drawn re-examination of the Western neoclassical paradigm concerning macroeconomic stability, and efficacy of countercyclical measures via mini manipulation of the supply of money by the Federal Reserve Board. A better alternative for all nation states is to establish social indicator targets.
5) Renewable Energy China's 12th Five Year Plan has placed specific emphasis upon the targeted development of renewable energy to satisfy 15 percent of China's energy needs by the year 2025. This policy will contribute to clean air in China and prevent environmental degradation as the use of fossil fuel is substituted by renewable energy.
6) Ports China is already the world's biggest merchant marine operator according to U. N. data. Container port data compiled by the United Nations shows. Customs administration figures show around 40,000 ships entered and left Chinese ports in the first half of 2014.
7) Population Policy China's one child policy and its recent modification has been optimal given the absolute number and the possibility of population trap. Successful control of fertility rate (number of children per women) is the hall mark of optimal population and determinant of China's long term growth potential and carrying capacity. China's prosperity is closely connected to its population policy although the age distribution of the population may pose some problems concerning productivity in the future. Its population is expected to peak to 1.5 billion by 2040 reaching zero growth rate and avoiding the population trap dilemma. No doubt, it is known that population policy in Europe in the 14th century led to the Industrial Revolution in the 18th century. Technology of industrialization from 18th century to the present created the high level of per capita income in the first world. Clearly, demographic policy affects economic development in all low and middle income countries.
8) Poverty Reduction Since 1978, China' has uplifted millions of peasants out of poverty and it has been the most successful country in the world in poverty reduction. China will deserve very high marks for its social indicator and distributional objectives.
Other favorable political economy policies that have made poverty reduction feasible include annexation of Hong Kong -- a model of one country in which two system is adopted granting Hong Kong market autonomy. Three-fifth of China's foreign direct investment are financed through Hong Kong and billions of dollars of China' assets are in Hong Kong's financial institutions. Development of Growth Zones such as Shanghai to attract foreign investment and investment in human capital including all levels of education through college are among the hallmarks of growth policies in China. The above factors have given a major impetus of high growth to China since 1980 ranging in annual growth rate of 7 to 10 percent. This is an unprecedented growth rate in the experience of world economy with the exception of Germany in the 20s largely due to military buildup.
9) Anti-Corruption Campaign Unfortunately corruption is a universal problem and once it takes roots it becomes institutionalized and penetrates the culture. Thus it becomes difficult to undo corruption. It is keenly prevalent in low and middle income countries. China is no exception in this regard, however, a concerted effort has been launched to bring corruption under control beginning with the effort of former president Hu Jintao and follow-up by the current president Xi Jinping. Beginning in 2012 reportedly imposing punishment upon 182,000 government officials at all ranks through 2014. Several high level party members have been removed, legal cases of anti-corruption of high officials in China has been reported in the Western Press with due process. Perhaps China will succeed to clean-up corruption completely. The anti-corruption drive in China is serious and admirable. It is certainly instructive for other countries to adopt a policy of transparency and uproot such criminal activities.
10) Unique Features of China's Society and Polity Altruism, social cognition, equity, equality, egalitarian motives, public service and economic growth are the hallmark of China's leadership pronouncements. The duel system of one political party and free competitive market economy characterize China's unique socio-economic-political system. The political system is not monolithic, or colossal, it has worked under seven member Politburo Standing Committee of party congress. Political leadership is elected every five years. Last year 10,000 small protests were tolerated. Currently over half of China's GDP is produced by private enterprises. China's government has not been shut down due to internal political dissent of multi-party feuds. More than 250 million people have been lifted out of poverty, this is approximately 20 percent of the total population.
11) The Ancient Silk Road In June of 2014, China's 2,400 year-old Grand Canal, which historically linked sections of the Silk Road, was awarded UNESCO heritage status, as were large portions of the ancient overland Silk Road. The 11,179 kilometer Yunxinou International Railway linking Chongqing and Xinjiang with Europe and commonly referred to as the "New Silk Road," runs alongside many of these ancient caravan tracts.
The foregoing are indicative that China is embarking in a distinctly alternative approach of inter-governmental collaboration and connectivity to promote economic catch-up of low and middle income countries that are located in the path of silk road.
Nake M. Kamrany is professor of economics at the University of Southern California. Frank Jiang is a research member of the USC Global Income Convergence Group and a senior in Economics at USC.
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Predictions & Forecasts
(14 March 2016) German Chancellor Angela Merkel and her CDU party suffered major losses in Sunday's state elections as voters weighed in on the refugee crisis. German voters moved away from Merkel's open-door policy and awarded large gains to the right-wing anti-immigrant AfD party (Alternative for Germany) in three states. This electoral shift will force the mainstream CDU and SPD parties to seek new and less stable alliances with smaller parties. Recent polls show that up to 80% of German people now oppose Merkel's policy and most want to stop the influx of refugees from the Middle East. Merkel has vowed to continue her more liberal approach despite his most strnging rebuke at the ballot box.
We can see how Merkel's horoscope is currently under heavy affliction by Saturn, the planet of loss, frustration and disappointment. Transiting Saturn sits at 22 degrees of sidereal Scorpio just ahead of its retrograde station on 25th March. Ms. Merkel's Ascendant is just a couple of degrees away at 20 Scorpio. The unusually slow velocity of Saturn ahead of its station makes this Saturn transit even more burdensome than would otherwise by the case. Saturn-to-Ascendant transits are classic indicators of defeats and setbacks of all kinds. Fortunately, they only happen once every 29 years. Lee mas.
(7 March 2016) Since time immemorial, eclipses have been regarded with dread and fear. The inexplicable period of daytime darkness brought by the solar eclipse was seen by pre-scientific societies as an evil omen and the harbinger of all manner of disaster and privation. Similarly, lunar eclipses were also looked upon with suspicion as the comforting glow of the luminous Moon suddenly turned dark and changed to an evil red colour. While we now live in an enlightened age of computers marked by exponentially expanding scientific knowledge, eclipses remain singular and wondrous celestial phenomena. Even beyond their aesthetic allure, eclipses retain a undeniable mystique. They link us with our primitive past and recall a time when the heavens were a source of earthly inspiration. As another solar eclipse is due on Wednesday (with totality in Indonesia), it is a good time to remind ourselves of the astrological legacy of eclipses.
In astrology, eclipses are still hugely important. Just as the light from the Sun temporarily disappears from view, eclipses are seen as interruptions of the status quo. Instability and change are often stressful and therefore eclipses may be more likely to bring about shifts in our routine, for better or worse. While traditional eclipse symbolism focuses on the negative impact of change and forced adaptation to new circumstances, evidence suggests that some eclipses bring about positive change. Lee mas.
(29 February 2016) On the eve of Super Tuesday, the Donald Trump juggernaut is on the verge of gaining a stranglehold in the race for the GOP nomination. The outspoken real estate businessman and reality television star already enjoys a big lead in delegates and popular support and looks certain to further cement his dominance before the July convention. Most analysts expect him to win all but the Texas primary tomorrow and become the inevitable choice of the Republican Party despite fierce opposition from the party establishment. Trump has become a polarizing figure in this strangest of primary seasons in the 2016 election cycle. He is clearly the most popular candidate in the field with most polls putting him near 40% support among Republicans. However, a near-equal number of Republicans strongly disapprove of him as they see him as an unpredictable opportunist who is not really conservative.
When I first discussed Trump's horoscope back in the summer of 2015, I thought his chart looked strong enough to win some early February primaries but would likely falter after that. I thought he was unlikely to win the nomination in July and quite unlikely to win the presidency in November. He has won three our of four of those early February primaries but he is much stronger than I thought he would be. As I saw it, his horoscope looked more difficult starting in March and that he would encounter more opposition. Lee mas.
(22 February 2016) Should the UK stay or should it go? After completing a series of difficult negotiations with his European counterparts, British Prime Minister David Cameron announced that a national referendum will be held on the final EU deal on the 23rd of June. Cameron successfully won some important concessions for the UK which grants it "special status" within the European Union on a number of contentious issues.
But will it be enough to mollify the opponents of the EU who point to a frustrating loss of sovereignty over immigration, labour, welfare and many other areas of British life? The current economic and immigration problems of the EU are obviously making matters worse and raise the possibility that Great Britain could actually vote to leave.
The "Vote Leave" (i. e. Brexit) side got a big boost today as the charismatic Mayor of London, Boris Johnson, said he will break with his own party and actively campaign for leaving. Despite being a member of the Conservative Party and enjoying a good working relationship with Cameron, Johnson has nonetheless decided to chart a very different course. Recent polls suggest Cameron's "Stay" side has a 15-point lead of the "Leave" side with about 20 percent undecided. But analysts have suggested that now Boris Johnson's personal popularity could deliver a strong boost the fortunes of the Leave side. Lee mas.
(15 February 2016) Financial markets remained turbulent last week as Fed Chair Janet Yellen did not backtrack on her plan to hike interest rates further in 2016. Investors had hoped that the usually dovish Ms. Yellen might have been more reassuring about the reduced likelihood of further hikes given the current sorry state of the global economy. At the same time, she did suggest that the Fed might consider bringing negative interest rates to the US if circumstances demanded it. While some investors saw this as an olive branch to the markets, others were scared off with the hint that this latest unproven central bank experiment might actually be put into practice in the US.
Despite a rebound Friday, the Dow finished down more than 1% on the week at 15,973. Indian stocks fell more sharply as the Sensex ended the week at 22,986. Indian stocks have now given up all the gains in the post-Modi election rally from May 2014. Not surprisingly, gold also enjoyed a strong gain to $1263 as the Venus-Jupiter aspect tightly activated the 1919 gold horoscope as discussed in last week's post.
In last week's market forecast, I had thought we might have seen more gains on the midweek Venus-Jupiter alignment. Lee mas.
(8 February 2016) Is gold's renewed luster for real? Gold has been shining brightly of late as one of the few asset classes (along with bonds) that has bucked the down trend in stocks and commodities. One key reason for gold's recent gains are fears that another recession may be looming which will force the world's central banks to cut interest rates further into negative territory. Lower interest rates are designed to lower (and debase) national currencies and therefore this enhances the appeal of gold as a storehouse of value.
Following more easing moves by their central banks in recent months, the Japanese Yen, the Euro and the Chinese Yuan among others have all fallen against the US Dollar. We may well be entering a more intense phase of a global currency war as desperate central banks race to devalue in order to briefly stimulate economic growth through cheap exports. Faced with the prospect of holding falling currencies, more investors are opting for gold as a hedge against this uncertainty. Gold soared 5% last week and finished at $1174 an ounce.
But we've seen this movie before. Gold has been trapped in a four-year long bear market following its all-time record high of $1920 in 2011. Read more.
(2 February 2016) Yesterday's Iowa Caucuses were the opening salvo of the lengthy US primary season as the rubber finally hit the road for the candidates for the Democrats and GOP after almost a full year of campaigning. Conservative Ted Cruz beat Donald Trump for the Republicans while the heavily-favoured Democratic frontrunner Hillary Clinton barely edged out the maverick socialist Senator Bernie Sanders by the narrowest of margins.
While Iowa is not seen as a bellwether for future primaries or the eventual nomination due to its unrepresentative demographics, it can nonetheless raise campaign profiles and give a boost for fundraising. This is surely going to be the case for Bernie Sanders who has come out of nowhere from the extreme left wing of the party to challenge Ms. Clinton, the heir-apparent to Barack Obama as the next nominee for the Democrats in the November Presidential election. Sanders can claim a moral victory in Iowa as he only lost to Clinton by 0.2%.
But can Bernie Sanders really beat Hillary Clinton for the nomination? It seems unlikely according to most political analysts given Hillary's strengths in minority communities and in the South. Although she is widely expected to lose the upcoming New Hampshire primary on February 9th which is next door to Sanders' home state of Vermont, Clinton should do much better in Nevada on February 20th and especially in South Carolina on February 23rd. Lee mas.
(1 February 2016) The Bank of Japan surprised financial markets last Friday by cutting its prime interest rate to -0.1% on interbank loans. BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda's shock move into the twilight zone of negative interest rates is designed to entice reluctant Japanese banks to lend more money and thereby provide a stimulus for the perennially moribund Japanese economy. Stock markets around the world reacted positively to the rate cut, even if its long term consequences are unknown. Negative rates force money out safe assets like bank accounts and bonds into riskier assets like stocks which have a greater potential return. However, the negative interest rate policy (NIRP) is new and rather experimental as the European Central Bank (ECB) was only the first major central bank to move its rate below the 'zero bound' in June 2014.
This move into negative rates seems a bit desperate as central banks are now realizing the limits of the effectiveness of its previous preferred monetary instrument of quantitative easing (QE). But with the global economy careening towards another recession, central banks may be willing to try anything to boost economic activity, even if it means punishing savers even more and creating unknown systemic risks. Lee mas.
(25 January 2016) Are we there yet? Investors are wondering if this January decline might finally be done with or if this is only be a nasty prelude to a more tumultuous financial year in 2016. My assessment of the planetary influences suggest there is a higher than normal risk of more downside in both the short and medium term. There are several useful charts in this respect but perhaps none is more important these days than the chart for crude oil futures.
As we have seen, the stock market is currently being driven by oil prices. If oil falls, stocks also fall soon after. One reason for this close correlation is that oil prices have fallen so far that many oil companies are in financial trouble. Most have laid off workers, and some are on the verge of insolvency. In particular, some US-based companies borrowed heavily for capital-intensive shale fracking operations. As these companies go under, they will no longer be able to repay their debt and hence the banks that loaned them money will also be in trouble. The financial contagion will thereby be released upon a vulnerable economy. As the world's pre-eminent commodity, crude oil prices are also seen as a proxy for the state of the global economy. The falling prices in the oil market are signaling that the economy is slowing as China and other emerging markets cut their consumption levels amid rising debt. Lee mas.
(18 January 2016) Financial markets continue to look shaky as the 'China Syndrome' threatens the global economy. After many years of impressive economic growth, China is showing more signs that its once-powerful economic engine is sputtering. This is one of the main reasons why crude oil has fallen below $30 a barrel and most stock markets have declined so far in 2016. As China goes, so goes the global economy. If China is forced to further devalue its currency to boost its exports and protect jobs, we can expect more trouble for global stock markets this year.
But is China really headed for a "hard landing" whereby their economy contracts sharply or perhaps even enters a full-blown recession? Previously, I looked at the horoscope of the Shanghai stock exchange and found ample evidence for a significant decline in January. The main Shanghai Index is has now fallen below 3000, a key technical support level. Some analysts are now suggesting more downside to perhaps its previous low of 2000. My assessment of this chart suggests that more downside is very likely this year. The Saturn retrograde station in March will align closely with the Moon this chart, while the Uranus station (0 Aries) in the summer will square the natal Saturn (0 Capricorn). Lee mas.
(15 January 2016) The US Republican held its most recent debate last night with the first primary just two weeks away. Frontrunner Donald Trump put in another strong performance and showed no signs of losing his hold on his formidable 20-point lead in national polls. The populist real estate billionaire has enjoyed a huge lead in the polls since July and has continuously defied pundits who have frequently predicted his freewheeling campaign's imminent collapse. Instead of undermining his popularity, however, his controversial and combative style has actually seen him rise in most polls as his anti-immigrant and anti-free trade message is resonating with many Americans.
But can Trump maintain his lead now that it actually matters and people go to the polling booth to vote? There are only two weeks remaining before the Iowa Caucus on February 1st. and then the New Hampshire primary is held the following week on February 9th. The latest Iowa polls show that Trump in a very tight race with conservative Ted Cruz and while Trump leads his nearest rival by 18 points in New Hampshire. Lee mas.
(11 January 2016) The world was saddened today by the passing of one-of-a-kind pop music icon David Bowie. After a stellar music career that spanned six decades, Bowie succumbed to cancer at the age of 69. For those us in the West who came of age in the 70s and 80s (and other decades too), the shocking news of his death made today a sad day. Not only did Bowie sell tens of millions of albums, but he was incredibly influential for other artists as a pioneer of new forms of artistic expression. His fearlessly independent and creative approach to music allowed him to re-invent his style many times throughout his storied career.
Simply put, David Bowie was born at a very auspicious time. Bowie's horoscope clearly shows his artistic talents, his fame, and his independent nature. As we know, each planet in astrology has a specific set of symbolisms and associations. Artistic pursuits such as music are represented by the planet Venus. Any person who is artistically inclined therefore is likely to have a prominent Venus in their chart. Lee mas.
(11 January 2016) Stocks fell sharply around the world last week as China's financial turmoil threatened to undermine the fragile economic recovery. As China's devaluation of the Yuan sideswiped markets, US stocks had their worst start to the year in history falling 6% as the Dow closed at 16,346. Indian stocks also slumped 4% as the Sensex fell below the key 25,000 level. This outcome was in keeping with my stock forecast from last week as I thought the Mars-Mercury square aspect would likely cause some significant damage. This was not just any old Mars-Mercury square, of course, but a particularly nasty one since Mercury turned retrograde on the very same day the 90 degree angle was exact! Asian markets have extended their decline on Monday at this time of writing although European stocks are mixed.
To be sure, the New Year is off to a shaky start. Is the six-year long bull market in stocks finally over? One now reads more gloomy forecasts in the media that suggest that 2016 might even be a repeat of 2008 when the world economy came to brink of collapse. My previous research on this subject suggests the odds are very high that most stock markets will decline significantly in 2016 and we could well see the end to this bull market in the US and Europe. Lee mas.
(4 January 2016) 2016 has started off on the wrong foot as global stocks declined sharply Monday following a plunge in the Chinese market that triggered circuit breakers and an early closing of the Shanghai Stock Exchange. The decline is pretty much what I expected given the very difficult planetary alignment this week. As I briefly mentioned in last week's market forecast and elaborated more fully in my subscriber newsletter, the Mars-Mercury square aspect was more likely to correlate with declines here because it was in effect for an unusually long time due to the approach of Mercury's retrograde station on Tuesday, January 5th.
The retrograde station is the day in which Mercury stops its normal forward motion and then begins to reverse its direction in the sky from our perspective on Earth. The Mercury retrograde cycle occurs every three months and lasts for about 20 days. While its retrograde cycle is traditionally associated with miscommunication and failed plans, I have found the days around its stations to be more specifically relevant to the financial markets. Lee mas.
(1 January 2016) January 1st marks the beginning of a new year. The celebrations and sense of renewal are a kind of collective rebirth for humanity as we forge ahead into the future. This rebirth implies a fresh starting point which can be analyzed according to the principles of astrology. From this first moment, we can cast a horoscope -- a map of the planets -- so that we may peer forward in time and look into the future. Although the midnight chart is not based on any astronomical measurements, I have found it nonetheless can often be useful for getting a general sense of trends for the year ahead.
In last year's annual horoscope analysis . I suggested that the dominant Moon-Mars-Jupiter alignment might represent an acceptable or honorable use of military force. This may well have reflected the growing global effort to defeat ISIS in Iraq and Syria that occurred in the second half of 2015. The horrific actions of this terrorist organization have united most nations against it including past rivals such as Putin's Russia, Obama's America, as well as Muslim countries such as Turkey and the Gulf states. Lee mas. Is the sun setting on oil? An astrological price analysis
(28 December 2015) It is very tough times for the oil industry these days. After trading north of $100 a barrel for much of the past five years, crude oil prices have collapsed since mid-2014 as OPEC increased supply while demand has fallen off a cliff. Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate now both trade for less than $40, a level last seen in the depths of the economic meltdown in 2008. The decade-long bull market in commodities like oil was closely tied with the emergence of China as an economic superpower but now that China is slowing, crude oil is suddenly much less valuable.
The recovery of the US Dollar since 2014 is another part of the story since oil is priced in Dollars. And if that wasn't enough, the historic climate change agreement recently signed in Paris suggests there may be a long term move away from fossil fuels. While carbon taxes and pledges to cut oil consumption may not have an immediate impact on prices, it is an added source of concern for the oil industry. Lee mas.
(21 December 2015) As the most powerful woman in the world, Janet Yellen fulfilled her promise and finally delivered on the long-anticipated interest rate hike last week. The Fed Chair announced the Federal Reserve would hike rates for the first time in nine years and thereby end the experimental zero interest rate policy that was launched in the depths of the meltdown in December 2008. The hike to 0.25% was widely seen as positive as stocks markets around the world generally rose on the news of an improving US economy. The unassuming Ms. Yellen has certainly come a long way since her senior year in high school in 1963 as she attempts to guide the global economy back to normal after the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression in the 1930s.
We can see from Yellen's horoscope how she may be feeling confident and having things go her way for the most part at the moment. Jupiter (at 28 Leo) is slowing down and soon to station at 29 Leo in early January. Lee mas.
(14 December 2015) All eyes are on Fed Chair Janet Yellen this week as the long-awaiting rise in interest rates may finally come to pass. After a false start in September in which the Fed apparently got scared off a hike after a sharp sell-off in world markets in August, the stage is set again for Yellen & Co. to pull the trigger and raise rates for the first time in 9 years. The consensus view is that she will follow through this time and raise the trend-setting overnight lending rate 0.125% to 0.25%. The larger question is what kind of language she uses to signal the pace of future hikes in 2016 and beyond. Given the fragility of markets these days, there is a sense that she will do everything possible to downplay fears of a fast schedule of rate hikes which could wreak havoc in many financial markets.
Interestingly, the Sun enters sidereal Sagittarius on the same day of the Fed announcement on Wednesday the 16th. Sagittarius is a sign that is associated with optimism, and it is no coincidence that it is ruled by the planet Jupiter, which is known as the Great Benefic. Lee mas.
(8 December 2015) President Obama delivered a rare address to the nation from the Oval Office yesterday as he tried to reassure nervous Americans that he had a viable plan for combating ISIS. The speech came just days after two ISIS-inspired terrorists shot and killed 14 people in San Bernardino, California. Some pundits felt that he came up short in the address as he offered no new plans to fight ISIS in Syria and protect US citizens at home.
Although Obama seems to have finally publicly acknowledged the seriousness of the threat that ISIS poses, many Americans are wondering if he has the necessary leadership skills for the task at hand. Given Obama's apparent caution and tentativeness, it is perhaps not surprising that GOP candidate Donald Trump and his more belligerent, straight talk approach continues to ride high in the polls despite his sometimes outrageous utterances and casual approach to the truth. There is an interesting yin-yang type relationship forming between Obama and Trump. Just as Obama's election was partially a reaction to the errors of George Bush, now Trump's popularity may be seen as a reaction to Obama's subtle, more diplomatic approach. Lee mas. Euro soars as ECB disappoints
(7 December 2015) Markets were shaken last week as the ECB announced only cautious stimulus measures which fell short of expectations. Investors were hoping that Mario Draghi would introduce more QE-type easing but instead he chose merely to extend the current program into 2017. Most global stock markets fell on the news as European bourses lost 3% while the US market lost 1.5% and India also ended generally lower on the week. While I thought we would see some midweek downside, the extent of the selling was a bit surprising given the typically bullish entry of Venus into sidereal Libra on Monday. At least Friday was higher in the US as stocks surged 2% on a strong jobs report. This coincided nicely with the late week Mercury-Jupiter alignment that I mentioned in last week's market forecast .
In my subscriber newsletter . I had suggested that the Euro was more likely to rise at the expense of the Dollar last week. That is precisely what happened as the Euro enjoyed its biggest one-day gain in months as it climbed from 1.06 to 1.09 on Thursday after the disappointing Draghi announcement. Lee mas.
(30 November 2015) As we begin the month of December, investors are anticipating the greater likelihood of improved stock market returns due to the traditional Santa Claus rally. Research on seasonal variation in returns has shown that December tends to outperform most other months of the year in US markets. In particular, the week between Christmas and New Year's tends to be most bullish as stocks have posted an average gain of 1.5% in that short five-day period. Nobody knows exactly why stocks tend to rise in December although several plausible theories have been suggested including holiday optimism, reduced trading volumes and year-end accounting and tax considerations.
I would also offer an astrological explanation for the relative buoyancy of stocks during December, particularly the second half. That is: the Sun transits through sidereal Sagittarius between December 15 and January 13 (+/- 1 day). The reason why the Sun's transit of Sagittarius should tend to be positive is that according to astrological tradition, Sagittarius is said to be "ruled" by the planet Jupiter. Lee mas.
(15 November 2015) France is reeling after the second terrorist attack in less than a year killed 129 people and wounded 350 others in Paris on Friday. The Islamic State has claimed responsibility for the attacks which it said were retaliation for France's participation in US-led coalition against ISIS in Syria. Responding to the shock and horror of the event, French President Francois Hollande has called the attacks an act of war and has vowed to respond without mercy. It seems clear that there will now be an intensification of the West's battle with ISIS as the 'clash of civilizations' appears to be entering a new and more violent chapter.
While I did not specifically predict this attack, I was not surprised when it occurred given the difficult condition of the horoscope of France this year. After the Charlie Hebdo terrorist attack in January, I had written that 2015 would likely be stressful for France and that the rest of the year would have an "ongoing sense of unease and frustration" . Lee mas.
(16 November 2015) So far, so Virgo. Or more precisely, Venus in Virgo. Ever since Venus began its transit of sidereal Virgo on 3rd November, most global stock markets have fallen. In some cases, such as in the US and Europe, the entry date came very close to the interim high whereas other markets such as India's has seen declines that began in October extended further.
In any event, the bearish influence of the transit of Venus in Virgo appears to be confirmed yet again. As I have shown in a previous stock market analysis . recent incidents of this once-a-year transit have correlated with declines. The four-week-long transit of Venus in Virgo has correlated with declines in each of the last six years. The astrological reasoning is fairly simple: Venus is seen as the planet of money and value and traditionally it is said to do poorly in Virgo, which is considered its sign of debilitation. Amazingly, this very basic one-factor model of stock market movements has generally outweighed most other planetary factors. Read more.. Gold falls further: more evidence for financial astrology
(9 November 2015) The steep sell-off in gold last week was a nice confirmation of the inner workings of financial astrology. Despite the beauty of this Gustav Klimt painting, Gold plunged 4% on the week closing below $1100 for the first time since August. In last week's post, I thought the chances were good that gold would likely decline given the difficult situation of the planet of Venus.
In financial astrology . Venus is one of the main planetary significators for the price of gold (along with women and art, of course!) and when it is under pressure gold typically declines. I had noted that Venus entered its sidereal sign of debilitation on Tuesday November 3rd. This sign transit of Virgo lasts four weeks and is often a bearish indicator. To top it off, Venus also conjoined Mars just the day before and was still minutes of arc past its exact conjunction. As a malefic planet, the proximity of Mars to Venus is also a factor that often depresses gold as my investigation of previous Venus-Mars conjunctions showed fairly clearly. As a consequence of this alignment, gold fell sharply on Tuesday as it broke a key technical support level. Lee mas.
(2 November 2015) It's not a good time to be a gold bug these days. After peaking in 2011 above $1900, gold has since fallen 40% and shows few signs of returning to those lofty levels. Not even recent strong hints from the European Central Bank (ECB) that it will begin a new round of QE managed to do much for the yellow metal. With official inflation still below 2% in most developed economies, there is less need for the safe haven as a traditional storehouse of value. While recent currency volatility has made gold somewhat more attractive to investors in emerging markets and other commodity-based economies, its value as measured in US Dollars remains low. Gold took it on the chin again today as it declined $8 closing at $1133.
As I have noted in previous posts, there are many astrological factors to consider when accounting for fluctuations in the price of gold. Certain horoscopes figure prominently such as the chart for the first London gold fix in 1919 and the chart of the first US futures trade in 1974. There are also any number of simple transit influences on gold. Lee mas.
(26 October 2015) And so it begins again. The annual political wrangling to raise the US debt ceiling is now in full swing as both parties vie for advantage before the November 3rd deadline. Since the US government must rely on borrowed money to stay solvent, Congress's failure to raise the debt ceiling would cause a default. Previous debt ceiling crises occurred in 2011 and 2013 and brought sharp declines in the stock markets before 11th-hour compromises were finally found. As always, Republicans are loathe to sign off on the ever-increasing debt load and are seeking fiscal concessions from the Democrats. Of course, many Republicans also do not want to to see the US default on its debt as the financial consequences could hurt the whole country in the form of financial instability, lowered credit ratings and higher borrowing costs on its bonds.
As an added wrinkle, this year's game of political chicken in Washington, DC will feature a new Speaker of the House. Paul Ryan will likely be formally elected on Thursday as he replaces outgoing John Boehner. Lee mas.
(21 October 2015) Canada elected a new Prime Minister on Monday as voters sent Liberal Party newcomer Justin Trudeau to Ottawa to serve as the country's 23rd Prime Minister. The charismatic 43-year old son of former PM Pierre Trudeau ousted Conservative Stephen Harper in a stunning victory as Trudeau brought the 3rd place Liberal Party back to power with a majority government. Although he was initially seen as inexperienced and trading on his father's fame, Trudeau gained support through the campaign as he focused on positive change for the country after nine years of often uninspired Conservative rule.
So what kind of leader will Justin Trudeau be? His horoscope suggests he is may a natural gift for political life, irrespective of his family background. Leo, the sign of leadership, rises in the 1st house. His Ascendant at 10 Leo is just four degrees from a conjunction with the fixed star Regulus. Traditionally, Regulus has long been regarded as one of the four royal stars in the sky and is said to confer leadership qualities. The lord of the 1st house is the Sun and it is powerfully placed in the 5th house of politics in Sagittarius. Lee mas.
(18 October 2015) When used wisely and judiciously, financial astrology can be a useful tool to investors. While no one can predict the direction of the market 100% of the time, there are many well-established correlations which have a good track record of prediction. One of these is the transit of Venus through the sign of Virgo. Or more specifically, through the sign of sidereal (star-based) Virgo as is commonly used in Vedic astrology in India. Western astrology employs the tropical (i. e. seasons-based) zodiac but evidence suggests that this correlation does not hold in that system.
I have found that stock markets generally do poorly during the four weeks that Venus transits through Virgo. In financial astrology, Venus is considered the planet of money and value. When it is well placed and unafflicted, stocks are more likely to rise. However, when it comes under pressure from malefic planets like Mars or Saturn, stocks are more likely to decline. And since Virgo is traditionally believed to be a sign where Venus is said to be debilitated, its transit of Virgo is similarly bad for stock markets around the world. Lee mas.
(5 October 2015) Friday's disappointing US jobs report is the Fed's worst nightmare. Despite six years of near-zero interest rates and $4 Trillion worth of QE-style money printing, the US economy only added 142,000 new jobs in September, a number well below expectations and the key 200K level. The US economy therefore remains very fragile and could tip into recession if global economic headwinds get worse. The conundrum for the Federal Reserve is that it could be trapped at zero percent here with little room to maneuver in the event of another major economic slowdown. The Fed had been promising for many months to raise rates back towards normal levels as the economy strengthened in late 2015. Now that seems increasingly unlikely as the Fed may well be forming contingency plans for perhaps another round of quantitative easing (QE4) or even the dreaded nuclear option of negative interest rates.
But is the US economy really headed for another recession? The horoscope of the US may offer some insights on this question. To be sure, it is very difficult to extrapolate economic activity based on planetary transits alone. Lee mas.
(28 September 2015) Sunday night's 'Supermoon' seems to have sparked a big sell-off across most European and US stock markets today. The Blood Moon (or 'Supermoon') is a fairly rare celestial event that occurs when a lunar eclipse coincides with the lunar perigee when the Moon makes its closest approach to the Earth. The result is a bigger than normal sized full moon that appears red in colour as the shadow of the eclipsed Earth passes over it. It certainly makes an impressive and beautiful nighttime display. And there is no shortage of symbolic angst and dread attached to it, including passages from the Bible.
The Dow lost 2% on the day finishing near that crucial level of 16,000. Indian stocks were infected only briefly with the lunar malaise as the Sensex lost 1% in the afternoon closing at 25,617. Lee mas.
(21 September 2015) Is the Janet Yellen losing her touch? Or more to the point, is the Fed losing control of financial markets? Most global markets declined last week after the Fed Chair chose to leave interest rates unchanged at zero percent after citing concerns over the state of the Chinese economy and iffy US data. The usually reassuring and dovish Fed Chair left investors puzzled and anxious as she painted a more sober picture of the economy than expected. There also appears to be growing confusion over which criteria the Fed is using to time its eventual interest rate hike. Besides US inflation and employment data, the Fed now seems to be including China into its calculus for when the "lift off" in interest rates will finally take place after six years of ZIRP. This was a change in messaging and left many confused about just how or when the Fed will rate hikes, if they ever do.
In last week's financial forecast, I thought the planetary influences argued somewhat for a hike given the strong Saturn influences here. However, I noted a possible alternative view whereby the dominance of Saturn could restrain the Fed from making any move at all out of fear of damaging confidence and crashing the stock market. Lee mas.
(14 September 2015) All eyes are on the Fed this week (yet again!) as investors wonder: will she or won't she? Fed Chair Janet Yellen has been leaving a trail of fairly strong hints in recent months that an interest rate hike is coming sometime this year and possibly as soon as Thursday. The Fed's policy statement will be released on Thursday at 2 p. m. as it reveals if the unprecedented six-year long zero interest rate policy is finally over. Analysts and commentators are sharply divided on this question, although it seems that the consensus position is that she will leave it unchanged for a bit longer and raise it either in October or December.
It's unclear what the market's reaction to a hike might be, although most believe it could spark some sort of decline. That said, enough traders have already discounted the possible 25 basis point hike (yes, that's just 0.25% at the low end of the range) that any decline will be fairly orderly and perhaps even modest.
So what does astrology have to say about the probability of a rate hike on Thursday? Lee mas.
(9 September 2015) As the European refugee crisis continues to dominate the headlines, Germany has emerged as the world's conscience in responding to the scenes of desperation played out in various locales. The Merkel government has pledged to accept at least 500,000 refugees from Syria and Iraq as the flood of displaced persons from that war-ravaged region shows no signs of abating.
The refugee crisis is still a divisive issue within the European Union as some countries have been more open to receiving refugees than others. Even within Germany, significant parts of the population are skeptical about the ability of the country to absorb such a large number of newcomers who differ from natives in terms of language, religion and culture. But for now, it seems most of the German people are welcoming the refugees with open arms in an inspiring display of their common humanity.
When this story first drew worldwide attention last week, I wasn't sure what the astrological angle might be. Lee mas.
(6 September 2015) One of the financial paradoxes in recent years is why there has been no significant (official) inflation in most Western countries despite massive efforts to print money by the Fed, the ECB and various other central banks around the world. Many observers were wary of the Fed's various QE programs to kickstart the economy after the 2008 meltdown since they believed it would cause inflation to rise to dangerous levels. Indeed, the Fed's unprecedented QE bond-buying program was one the main reasons why gold rose to all time highs in 2011 as the traditional inflation hedge came to within a stone's throw of $2000. As more investors realized that inflation was as tame as ever (below 2%, at least officially), gold prices began to fall back to earth. Now gold trades close to $1100.
There are many reasons why inflation never really got going in developed economies but perhaps the most important was that the economy was just so weak after the Great Recession, the expansion of the money supply was barely enough to even keep the economy afloat. Lee mas.
(31 August 2015) Stock markets recovered last week after Monday's scary plunge. The Chinese government intervened in the markets once again and this time it actually seemed to work as the interest rate cut and looser bank capital requirements restored business confidence. The Dow briefly fell below 16,000 early in the week and ended at 16,540. India's BSE-Sensex traded below 26,000 for the first time since summer 2014 and finished at 26,283. In last week's financial forecast . I suggested some possibility of a midweek recovery on the Sun-Jupiter conjunction. This appeared to broadly coincide with the rebound after Monday's decline. But I had been fairly skeptical about the week overall given the Mercury-Rahu influence and its possible connection with Saturn. In other words, stocks ended somewhat stronger than I had expected.
So is the worst over? I doubt it. The strong Saturn influence is still going to shape investor sentiment in the weeks to come. Lee mas.
(23 August 2015) Stock markets tanked last week as investors began to seriously ponder the possibility of a full-blown recession in China. US stocks experienced their biggest weekly decline since 2011 with the Dow falling more than 5% to 16,459. Most global markets shared in the near-panic although India lost a more modest 3% on the week with the BSE Sensex finishing at 27,366. In last week's market forecast . I thought the late week could be problematic on the Sun-Saturn square aspect. This definitely was the case, although I did not fully expect a decline of this magnitude. As expected, we did see some early week gains although they proved to be very fleeting.
As I have noted previously, the summer of 2015 was bound to be difficult for most markets due to an unusual series of Saturn aspects . Lee mas.
(16 August 2015) Last week saw an unusual coincidence of events in China. On Tuesday, China's central bank surprised global financial markets and devalued its currency. On Wednesday, there was a huge industrial explosion in the port city of Tianjin that killed over a hundred people. While these two events were unrelated in fact, they do have common astrological origins due to afflictions in the horoscope of China. Specifically, I would say they are the result of close aspects to the Ascendant in this chart.
First, we can see this devaluation and its fallout in the horoscope of China. Using the October 1, 1949 chart, the Ascendant (8 Capricorn) suffers a double affliction from the transits of malefic Rahu (North Lunar Node) and Mars. Lee mas.
(11 August 2015) The race for the nomination for US Republican Party entered a new phase last weekend after the first televised candidates debate on Fox. The ten leading candidates participated in the debate but in the end it was all about Donald Trump, the outspoken real estate mogul and reality TV star who has unexpectedly emerged as the frontrunner in the polls. Despite widespread criticism for his comments, Trump's combative exchanges with debate moderator Megyn Kelly seems to only have re-affirmed his role as the dominant candidate in the GOP race as his lead in the polls has widened even further. Clearly Trump's message is resonating with many conservative Americans who feel angry about the state of the country and alienated from their own government.
Not only is Trump a party outsider and a loose cannon on many issues, the possibility that he could win the nomination would probably be bad news for Republicans since polls show that Trump does worse when matched head-to-head against the likely Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton compared with almost all other GOP candidates. Lee mas.
(9 August 2015) The world's economic engine is showing more signs of running out of gas. The latest Chinese economic data revealed a declining manufacturing output for the third straight month. The Caixin PMI figure is now below the 50 threshold thus indicating economic contraction. With the Chinese government increasingly desperate to support the plunging stock market by any means necessary, there is more evidence that all is not right in the Middle Kingdom. As China slows, the risk of a global recession rises.
Back in my spring stock market forecast . I wondered what changes might lie ahead given the rising influence of Saturn during the summer months. Saturn is a malefic planet that is usually front and center in tense or difficult situations where our wishes are denied and lessons are only leaned the hard way. I thought that the last aspect of Jupiter (with Uranus and then Venus) in late June might mark the end of a relatively stable period in the world. Without any prominent Jupiter aspects in the mix for a while, bearish Saturn would be free to call the shots as it formed a series of aspects throughout the next three months. I thought stock markets could decline around the world. Lee mas.
(26 July 2015) Global stock markets slumped last week as worries about the implications of a slowdown in China caused some investors to hit the sell button. US stocks fell by 2% as the Dow finished the week at 17,568 while Indian equities slipped 1% as the BSE-Sensex ended at 28,112. Ironically, Chinese stocks extended their recent rebound despite weak economic data as the Shanghai Composite again moved above 4000. Gold declined sharply on reduced inflation expectations and finished below $1100.
I had been fairly equivocal in last week's stock market forecast, although I hinted at some potential trouble spots from malefics Saturn and Mars. In keeping with the negative symbolism of Mars, Friday's Mars-Uranus aspect coincided closely with a significant down day on most world markets. Gold's 3% decline on the week was also in line with last week's predictions given the difficult Venus-Saturn aspect. Venus is one of the planets most associated with gold prices, and when it is aligned with Saturn, it usually signals declines. This was clearly the case last week. Lee mas.
(19 July 2015) Stock markets breathed a sigh of relief last week after a late night bailout deal was finally reached between the EU and Greece. While financial chaos was averted, the distrust and enmity in the Eurozone is now plain to see. The EU has lost its innocence and may well be on its way to a more profound shake-up as a growing number of countries no longer want to subsidize a bankrupt Greece. Global stocks rallied on the news of Monday's deal, but other financial markets took a more negative long term view. The Euro itself fell further as currency traders pondered the viability of the monetary union in the long run. Gold also fell through a key support level as investors preferred the US Dollar as a safe haven.
In last week's stock market forecast, I thought we might have seen more declines in stocks as the midweek alignment of Mercury-Mars-Pluto looked troublesome. The early week entry of Jupiter into sidereal Leo was bullish as I thought it might be, and this reflected the optimism of Monday's overnight deal. The collective fallout of Mercury-Mars-Pluto was perhaps better reflected in the assertion of Germany's power and the lingering ill will that the agreement generated. Lee mas.
(12 July 2015) Sunday has now come and gone in Brussels without any decision on the possible bailout deal between Greece and the European Union. Sunday had been touted as the 'final deadline' for a negotiated settlement, but perhaps no one should really be surprised that everything is still very much up in the air. The sticking point now is that Germany's Angela Merkel and the other fiscal hawks in the EU want more guarantees that Greece will abide by the measures outlined in the bailout.
The quixotic and unpredictable behaviour of Greek PM Alexis Tsipras and his former Financial Varoufakis in recent weeks has caused an erosion of trust at the bargaining table which is now an impediment to any deal. His referendum ploy backfiring badly, Tsipras now has to agree to even more austerity and exceptional conditions on this latest bailout offer or else leave the Eurozone. There is growing talk that Germany and its fiscally conservative allies in the EU actually want a 'Grexit' and are attaching so many unpalatable conditions for Greece that Tsipras will have to be the one to walk out first.
In last week's post, I suggested that the astrological alignments in the key charts suggested that a quick and simple negotiated bailout was unlikely in the coming days. Lee mas.
(5 July 2015) With the strong No vote in today's EU bailout referendum, the Greek people have taken a giant leap of faith into the unknown. Following the lead of their popular left wing PM Alexis Tsipras, Greeks have issued a stunning rebuke to the status quo in Europe as they rejected austerity imposed from without in favour of self-determination. But what will happen next is anyone's guess, as the EU must now prepare a response to the referendum result at an emergency meeting on Tuesday.
Will the EU cave in once again to preserve the integrity of Eurozone to avoid financial chaos and make actually a better offer to Tsipras? Or will Merkel and Hollande take a tougher stand and carry through with their threat to let Greece default and thereby hasten the departure of Greece from the Eurozone? It seems unlikely that there will be any quick resolution to the crisis, even if one or the other of these or any other paths is taken. There are just too many variables here and too many ways things could go wrong. Lee mas.
(28 June 2015) It's been a very good week for US President Barack Obama. First, he successfully got Congress to agree to fast track approval for the controversial Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), an Asian free trade agreement. Then at the end of the week, the Supreme Court handed down landmark decisions on Obamacare and gay marriage that furthered his political agenda and enhanced his presidential legacy. Friday also featured one of his most moving and powerful speeches when he eulogized the pastor who was killed in last week's racially-motivated mass shooting at a South Carolina church. The most touching and stirring moment of the eulogy occurred when the President spontaneously began to sing "Amazing Grace" to the joyous delight of the assembled congregation.
When you have weeks like this, you can usually bet on a pretty obvious and clear astrological explanation. Lee mas.
(28 June 2015) The hang-wringing in Europe reached a fever pitch today as Greece took one very big step closer to default and possibly leaving the Eurozone. Greek Prime Minister Tsipras shocked the Troika (EU, ECB, IMF) on Friday by suddenly pulling out of negotiations and calling for a referendum to be held on 5th July on the final bailout offer. He has called the offer "humiliating" and is asking his people to vote "No". A No vote would ratchet up the pressure even more as Greece would likely have to default on its debt. After that, any number of scenarios are possible, including the much-talked about Grexit from the Eurozone.
It's a very fluid and confusing situation at this time (Sunday afternoon EDT) and no one really knows what will happen next. Greek banks are closing for the week in an effort to restore calm and prevent a chaotic bank run. Lee mas.
(21 June 2015) Stock markets were generally higher last week as the Fed reasserted its commitment to predictable but cautious hikes in interest rates later in the year. Despite ongoing uncertainty about what might happen in Greece, the Dow gained 1% on the week closing at 18,014. Indian stocks were even stronger as early indications of the monsoon season looked positive. The Sensex rose 3% before settling at 27,316.
The outcome was not too surprising as I thought gains would be more likely in the second half of the week. As expected, the early part of the week saw some fallout from the Sun-Mars conjunction, although the negative sentiment only lasted for about one day. Thursday was probably the most positive day of the week, with gains peaking a little before Friday's Moon-Venus-Jupiter alignment. Lee mas.
(15 June 2015) Eight hundred years ago today, on 15 June 1215, the Magna Carta was given the royal seal by King John of England in response to a revolt by the nobility. The Magna Carta (Great Charter) is considered the foundation of the Western system of laws and democracy and began the codification of individual legal rights. Following years of legal abuses and arbitrary taxation by the widely hated King John, the nobles drew up the document that asserted that no man, including the King, should be above the law of the land. All subsequent revolutions in the English speaking world which sought to expand individual rights and liberties would cite the Magna Carta as its guiding inspiration.
Incredibly, the planets at the time of the royal assent to the Magna Carta show a stunningly clear picture of its historic intent and significance. We don't know what time King John affixed the document with his beeswax seal, but the noon chart is good enough for our purposes. Lee mas.
(14 June 2015) Bill Gross has to be wondering about his luck these days. The former superstar Chief Investment Officer of PIMCO had earned the nickname "The Bond King" during the past twenty years as his company became the largest bond fund in the world. His luck started to sour in 2011 when he made a very public call to get out of all US Treasuries in anticipation of rising interest rates and greater inflation as a result of the Federal Reserve's ongoing QE policy. This decision proved to be disastrously wrong as Treasuries rallied further and yields fell to record lows. As a result, PIMCO returns suffered and a growing number of investors withdrew their assets. Things got so bad that Gross was forced to leave the firm in September of last year and now manages the much smaller Janus fund.
Gross' fortunes appeared to be improving recently with a brilliant call to short German government bonds (Bunds). Lee mas.
(7 June 2015) It's a difficult road these days for Janet Yellen and her team at the US Federal Reserve. Seven years after the 2008 economic meltdown and the beginning of its unprecedented policy of zero interest rates and then quantitative easing (QE), the US economy is still shaky. Some economic indicators like unemployment look pretty good (5.5%) but we're a long way from where we were before the Great Recession. GDP is struggling at 2% per year, wages haven't recovered, housing is still down, and economic inequality is greater than it ever was. Economic insecurity appears to be at an all-time high as more people are either on food stamps or living paycheck-to-paycheck.
The problem for Yellen and her colleagues is that they desperately want to claim victory over this recession and "normalize" interest rates, if for no other reason than to have some breathing room in the case the economy tanks again and they have to cut rates again. But many economists fear that a rate hike now will stifle this fledgling recovery and cause a huge market sell-off which could have major consequences for the financial sector (e. g. pension funds). Lee mas.
(2 June 2015) FIFA president Sepp Blatter resigned in disgrace today as corruption charges continued to swirl around the beleaguered football organization. Despite being re-elected as president just days ago, Blatter succumbed to the growing pressure to clean house from players, media and perhaps most importantly of all, corporate sponsors. Blatter had been president for fifteen years during which time rumours abounded that FIFA was immersed in a culture of bribery and corruption.
Not surprisingly, Blatter's horoscope shows significant problems at this time. His transit chart shows Saturn (6 Scorpio) moving closer to his equal 4th house cusp (square to the Ascendant at 2 Leo) at the bottom of the chart. Saturn tends to create more havoc in the 4th house which represents peace of mind and happiness. Saturn symbolizes obstacles and suffering so its location close to the 4th cusp is what one would expect from a situation where happiness is denied. Lee mas.
(12 April 2015) Hillary Clinton finally ended the pseudo-suspense today and announced her candidacy for the nomination for the Democratic Party in the 2016 US Presidential election. Ms. Clinton made the announcement via a Youtube video that was released shortly after 3 p. m . The exact timing of the announcement is important for astrological reasons since the timing of the launch of the campaign marks the official beginning of her endeavour to become President.
In my experience, the horoscopes of these launches reveal important information about the nature of the candidacy as well as providing clues about the eventual success or failure of the campaign. Clearly, Ms. Clinton is the Democratic frontrunner at this point as no serious challenger has yet stepped forward. She also stands a decent chance of winning against any Republican candidate according to recent polls. So what does this campaign launch chart tell us about her chances? Lee mas.
(29 March 2015) In the end, Andreas Lubitz got what he wanted. The 27-year old Germanwings pilot had told a former girlfriend that he wanted to make a spectacular gesture so that 'everyone would know his name'. The world has recoiled in shock and horror on learning that Lubitz deliberately crashed his plane into the French Alps killing himself and all the other 149 people on board on March 24. It has now emerged that young pilot had hidden his history of clinical depression from his employer in order to keep his job.
There is some uncertainty about the the birth date of Andreas Lubitz. Some sources report he was born on 18 December 1987 while others say he was born on 28 December, in the town of Montabaur, Germany. I prefer the chart for 18 December for reasons I outline below. As an additional obstacle, his birth time is unknown so a full analysis of his horoscope is impossible. However, even his birth date chart reveal some major planetary stresses for the present time. Lee mas.
Click here to read past posts from 2009 to 2015
Econ 461: Economic Development Lecture 25: April 16 Conclusion - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript and Presenter's Notes
Title: Econ 461: Economic Development Lecture 25: April 16 Conclusion
1 Econ 461 Economic DevelopmentLecture 25 April 16Conclusion Sandra Poncet Lorch Hall, room 207 Email sponcet_at_umich. edu Office Hours Mondays 1630-18 Wednesdays 1030-12 2 Structure of the lecture End of lecture 24 on civil wars Rapid conclusion critical issues for the 21th century Final Exam/ Practice 3 End of lecture 24 on civil wars 4 A-Causes of civil wars 1-Opportunities b-Other elements of opportunities Foregone revenues (opportunity costs) enter significantly on war - proxied by income per capita, growth rate and schooling - but could also proxy grievances - in fact typical grievance is not low income but unequal repartition and we will see that is does not seem to be significant Availability of conflict-specific capital (guns, experience) enters - proxied by time since last conflict (duration of peace) - but also proxy for hatred associated with past war (grievances) Military advantages of rebels enter with positive impact on war - proxied by favorable terrain (mountains, forest) unequal population dispersion weak gvt military capability social cohesion ethno linguistic fragmentation (ELF) - positive impact of ELF on war. perception of ethnicity difference as a cause there seems to be a non linear relationship inverted U 5 II-Empirical evidence A-Causes of civil wars 2-Grievances Apparent lack of significance of proxies of objective grievances NS of degree of political rights NS of Inequality indicators Religious fractionalization and polarization have wrong sign But some evidence that violent conflicts are positively explained by - abuses of civil rights as monitored by Amnesty International - ethnic dominance largest ethnic group45-90 of the population 6 Typical regression to explain outbreak of civil war (collier and Hoeffler 2006) Source Collier, P. and A. Hoeffler, 2006, Unintended Consequences Does Aid Promote Arms Races? 7 II-Empirical evidence A-Causes of civil wars 3-Conclusion on causes of civil wars It appears that opportunity provides more explanatory power than grievance. Economic viability appears to be the predominant systematic explanation for rebellion Policy implications Economic development is critical to peace - increases the opportunity costs of rebellion and reduces grievances through higher income and growth - reduces the availability of easy financing through increased economic diversification (away from natural resources) Aid can be captured as rents and can (through fungibility) increase military expenses - need to focus on technical assistance - no program assistance but projects assistance (on education/health) 8 II-Empirical evidence B-Consequences of civil wars Modern civil war has been development in reverse 1-Economic consequences Huge costs for the country at war During conflict reduction of GDP growth rate by 2.2 each year (as average duration is 7 years shrinking by 15) After conflict overall 21 years needed to recover Present value of GDP loss 105 initial GDP Origin of these costs - Direct destruction of infrastructure and other capital. - Diversion of public resources from productive activities to violence - Dissavings - Disruption suppression of liberties, increase in insecurity - Flight of capital (financial and human) from the country - Shift away from vulnerable economic activities towards those that are less vulnerable such as arable subsistence agriculture. 9 Illustration of the shift away from vulnerable economic activities towards those that are less vulnerable such as arable subsistence agriculture. Abrupt start of disruption in 1972 Source Collier, P. (1999), On the Economic Consequences of Civil War, Oxford Economic Papers 51 168-83. 10 II-Empirical evidence B-Consequences of civil wars Modern civil war has been development in reverse 1-Economic consequences Even greater costs negative externalities (spatial and time) Loss of income for region Present value of GDP loss 115 initial GDP Plus costs of arm races (so most of the costs is borne by the neighbors) Temporal externalities conflict trap greater probability of war in the future half of civil wars are due to post-conflict relapses Typical civil war costs 50 billion w/o valorization of non-eco costs 2-Non-economic consequences - Social consequences Health (AIDS, malaria) Psychological costs orphans, forced migration - Political consequences Loss of social capital (trust, honesty) Deterioration in political institutions 11 The answer is a clear NO 12 III-Policy implications A-Evidence on conflict duration and Post-conflict 3 strong explanations of civil wars long duration and repetition (weak incentives for peace) - Absence of lock-in of peace settlements no enforcement through international treaties (? international war) rebellion army disintegrates (so time inconsistency problem for the gvt once rebellion is weakened incentives for vengeance) - Presence of finance for rebel groups typically Diaspora (more extreme as do not bear cost of new conflict) subventions from hostile governments - Legacy of hatred and war-specific capital (weapons and skills) 13 III-Policy implications B-Implications Typical categorization into prevention, ending conflict and maintaining post-conflict peace But securing credible end to conflict is the best prevention to war More promising policies (for governments and external actors) Reduction of military spending (just diversion of financing w/o deterrence effects) International actors (US, UK, F, China) have a considerable scope to reduce the feasibility of rebellion through curtailing finance and armaments Reintegration of rebels in society increase in their opportunity costs and depreciation of war-specific expertise Favoring post-conflict recovery - external military stabilization record is mixed - coordinated international intervention on economic and political assistance technical assistance and aid But beware limited absorption capacity optimum timing is 5 years after 14 Conclusion Scope for far more economic work, both theoretical and empirical on civil wars Necessary to guard against excessive generalization from econometric results as what applies on average does not apply to all cases However results evidence that economic factors matter for start, duration and end of civil wars This has implications for policy Especially as - costs of civil war are typically very high - and most are external to the active participants, borne either by neighbors or the next generation. Promising policies are just beginning to filter into international policy coordinated approach to failing states It will be key to ensure feedback and accountability in order to assess what works and learn from failures 15 GLOBAL CONCLUSION 16 Conclusion Key things I would like you to walk away with We live in a complex world - endogeneity reverse causality circularity direct and indirect impact (multiplicity of channels) - non-linearity and threshold Avoid lure of oversimplification -1-rules of thumb dont work - need for policy creativity searchers versus planners - no one size fits all policy context matters - most profitable policies are the ones addressing the most binding constraints need for a diagnostic approach -2-because of complementary incentives problems obvious measures may not help increase health spending, invest in infrastructures -3-avoid confusing of causes and effects 17 Conclusion Globalization is making developed and developing countries increasingly interdependent Challenges of the management of WORLD PUBLIC GOODS - environment - health - stability safety wars terrorism as by products of poverty financial stability Possibly growing awareness of need for supranational institutions end of sterile protectionist stand of maximizing welfare domestically without concern of potential backlash We (especially voters in rich nations) are actors we will get the world we stand for 18 FINAL EXAM 19 Final exam Friday 20th 1.30-3 pm in 1360 East Hall 90 minutes long 40 of the final grade On lectures 13-25 Four parts Part I True/False/Uncertain 15 minutes Part II Relationship between terms 15 minutes Part III MCQ 10 minutes Part IV Short essays is worth 30 points. 20 Practice Final exam I-TRUE/FALSE/UNCERTAIN (explain) 1. In a country with zero-tariff on imports meant to be processed and reexported (export-processing) , a given nominal tariff rate on imported finished goods would typically provide a lower effective protection for the home-made yarn sector than for the clothing sector relying on imported yarn. 2. The promotion of prudential regulations on financial intermediaries transactions should be discarded as an effective to avoid future financial crises since it is a pie in the sky scheme, similarly to plans for a world bankruptcy court or a world currency. 3. OLS estimations are expected to lead to the underestimation of the impact of aid flows on economic growth as they do not correct the endogeneity bias. 21 Practice Final exam II-Relationship between terms 3 to choose from 1. overvalued currency, speculative attack 2. productive specialization, trade-growth nexus 3. omitted variables, reverse causality 4. motivation, opportunity 5. current account deficit, reserves 22 Practice Final exam III-MCQ 1. If the population growth rate is 2, the incremental capital output ratio is 3, the saving ratio is 24 and the depreciation rate is 5, the rate of growth of income per person is (a) 1. (b) 2. (c) 3. (d) 5. 2. Which of the following is an argument in favor of trade liberalization? (a) Increased investment. (b) Infant industry. (c) Fluctuating export earnings. (d) Increased government revenue. 23 Practice Final exam MCQ 3. Which of the following is NOT a reason for the shift of paradigm away from the market fundamentalism in the 1990s? (a) Lost decade for development (b) Resolution of the debt crisis. (c) East Asias success can not be attributed to the Washington Consensus. (d) Recog nition of market imperfections. 4. Which of the following CAN NOT be said about institutions (a) Institutions not only affect the size of the social pie but also how it is distributed (b) Institutions are path-dependent, possibly leading to trap effects. (c) Institut ions are exogenous to economic growth. (d) Institu tions determine incentives to invest and innovate 24 Practice Final exam MCQ
5. What is NOT an argument of Rodrik (2006)s comparison of subsidies for modern exportables with import liberalization?
Import liberalization induces the contraction of the modern exportable sector, which is unfavorable to growth.
Modern export subsidies induce the contraction of the modern importable sector and traditional exportable sector, which is unfavorable to growth.
As the elasticity of supply of traditional exportables is higher than that of modern exportables, import liberalization may promote export growth but with little economic growth overall.
(d) As the elasticity of supply of traditional exportables is higher than that of modern exportables, modern export subsidies may promote export growth but with little economic growth overall.
25 Practice Final exam IV-Short answers Bullet points are fine but dont just state, explain. 5 properly explained arguments are expected to get the maximum number of points. IV-1. What are the main limitations of the empirical literature on the trade and growth nexus? Your response should relate to the arguments made by Rodrik on the econometric work of Dollar and Kraay. IV-2. What may explain the lack of impact of aid on economic growth? IV-3. What explains that observers have compared the IMF which mandate resembles that of a firefighter in the international financial markets - to a pyromaniac? 26 V-Structured essay V-1. Which country may be the most vulnerable to a debt crisis? Explique. Your answer should relate to the literature on the causes and indicators of debt burden. V-2. What may have brought this country to this high level on debt? Your answer should cover both the level and the structure of debt? V-3. What may explain that debt rescheduling may not solve the debt crisis?
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The Art of Investing
Bravery or recklessness?
Investing is often referred to as an Art: The Art of Investing. True artists may object to this analogy, but, in any event, the key implication is that quantitative methods have a very limited applicability to investment problems, and mathematical (i. e. formally rigorous and logical) arguments are essentially misguided. Proponents of this philosophy often assert that investing is just too complex, with too many free variables, for mathematical methods to be of much use. But aren’t biological, chemical or nuclear systems also complex, and yet Mathematics has become the indispensable tool to understand them?
Every human activity may be approached as an artistic endeavor. For example, many people think of archery as an art, and practice it for its relaxing and entertaining properties. Olympic athletes approach it differently. They use high-tech materials, biomedical devices that take into account their bodily conditions, and atmospheric devices to incorporate environmental readings. They also follow a strict algorithmic procedure to assess the accuracy of a shot and correct the observed error to make the next shot more accurate.
In a similar way, one could go to Las Vegas and play the art of beating the casino: Gambling. Casinos love gamblers. Like artists, they are passionate, fashionable, unpredictable, mystic, and, most importantly, unsystematic. Such players may enjoy epic wins, but eventually most of them lose it all (and then some), and the casino emerges with a tidy profit. In contrast, casinos have a system, which is the backbone of their business, and they follow it strictly and scientifically. Casinos are afraid of mathematicians, like Edward Oakley Thorp. John Larry Kelly. James Grosjean. & # 8230; who are not allowed to enter their establishments.
Flying to the moon like Chang’e in the Chinese mythology was wishful-thinking, yet it takes a rigorous scientific program like Apollo to make it a reality. Columbus’ daring attempt to reach India and Elcano’s first circumnavigation of the globe (the same trip that cost Magellan’s life) were heroic. It was brave to embark on odysseys in the pre-technological era. But it would be downright reckless to rely on “bravery” in 21st century, given the progress we have made since then. Our pre-technological ancestors had no choice, but we do.
The science of investing
As human understanding has deepened, many former arts have become sciences: alchemy gave way to chemistry; astrology gave way to astronomy; gambling gave way to game theory; bloodletting and wizardry gave way to high-tech science-based medicine; and medieval numerology gave way to the towering edifice of modern mathematics. Thus it is inevitable that the art of investing give way to the science of investing.
There are, indeed, excellent discretionary traders, who use their intuition in ways that we (and they) don’t fully understand (hence their discretionary decision-making). However, without the support of science they are like the endeavors of Columbus, Elcano and Magellan. Consider, for example, Jesse Livermore. the “great bear of Wall Street.” An investor of enormous talent, Livermore nonetheless made and lost four fortunes in his life and tragically died broke. For every instance of spectacular success from this approach there is also an instance of spectacular failure.
Mathematical finance does not dismiss the expertise gathered by discretionary traders over decades of experience. On the contrary, it levers from that expertise: developing disciplined, scientific algorithmic systems that replicate the decisions of discretionary traders, and then applying that insight in a more general and scalable way to yield even more successful trading systems, while avoiding the risk inherent in an intuition-only approach.
For example, financial mathematicians construct overlay portfolios based on the bets implied by those discretionary managers, thus measurably increasing the degree of diversification in a portfolio. It also provides ways to assess the skill of those discretionary traders, and many more applications that we will explore in technical articles and this blog. But the modern discipline of mathematical finance recognizes the limitations of purely intuition-based investment strategies. Intuition can be surprisingly effective; but it can also be very wrong. A science-based approach is the best a rational investor can do.
A compromise
Mathematical finance does not seek to end the role of “artistic” traders and “discretionary” portfolio managers. Lejos de ahi. Instead, it develops quantitative portfolio oversight methods that incorporate the “artistic” input from discretionary traders into a scientific framework, thus delivering a systematic-style investment that benefits from their intuition while avoiding the very real risk of catastrophic performance. Financial mathematics is a young emerging discipline of science. Like her elder siblings she needs the nurture of an educated mass. As investors in the 21th century we need to rise to the challenge: educate ourselves and demand increasing rigor from financial researchers and practitioners.
Indeed, it is just as important to be aware of the dangers of blind quantification as it is to eschew quantitative analysis. For example, financial managers’ blind reliance on over-simplified mathematical models arguably contributed to the recent financial crash. They presumed that markets behave according to conventional Gaussian distributions, when in fact they do not always behave that way, particularly in extreme regimes. See Nobel Laureate (and New York Times columnist) Paul Krugman’s excellent 2009 analysis of the financial crisis for additional details.
For additional discussion, see our blogs The Two Towers of Finance. which discusses the disconnect between the academic and practitioner arenas of finance, and Two tales of the Kelly formula. which discusses how the Kelly formula can be used (or misused) in finance.
Trading Without Indicators
This is a revolutionary approach which gives good profits and very good at detecting sideways movements. Ask us for details, if you would like to use our mentored trading service to trade with this system for a select collection of stocks and or futures. Positional trades for Nifty and BankNifty and Tatachem, BharatForg and Denabank shown for demo purposes. Check more technical details here (click here).
Trading Nifty Intraday Positional - A festive trial offer!
See the trades below and the a snapshot of the trade triggers. This shows that around 150-180 points per lot net of costs for 2 lot and 3 lots trades could be achieved in 15 days! This is infact better than the standard performance that we are delivering. As a special offer, we are offering this service as a free trial service between November 15 and 21 where all the calls will be given on the Yahoo id TradeWithMeIntrapos. Interested folks may connect with us on TradeWithMeIntrapos for getting the calls to observe or to trade. The rules are simple. Exit 1 lot at 20 points, 2 lots at 20 and 30 points and 3 lots at 20/30/50 or trail the 3rd lot to exit. Stop losses will be based on supports and resistances to begin with and adjust automatically to tighter levels as targets are achieved. These will also be updated via Yahoo messenger.
Performance during the trial period - net of costs 15-21 November 2012: 15 Nov. 3 trades net 22 points 16 Nov. 2 trade net 60+ points 19 Nov. 2 trades net -12 points
In the above, in 2 lots cases, exits at 20 and 30 points targets was chosen and in 3 lots, the third lot exited at the trade exit. In trade 3, the trade exit is at 18 points. Trade 7 the exit is at 9 points. In both these cases, lots 2 and 3 exit at these levels.
Nifty Positional
Germany: Status of Women
Entry from: "Germany: A Country Study" published by the Federal Research Division of the Library of Congress.
For centuries, a woman's role in German society was summed up and circumscribed by the three "K" words: Kinder (children), Kirche (church), and Küche (kitchen). Throughout the twentieth century, however, women have gradually won victories in their quest for equal rights. In 1919 they received the right to vote. Profound changes also were wrought by World War II. During the war, women assumed positions traditionally held by men. After the war, the so-called Trümmerfrauen (women of the rubble) tended the wounded, buried the dead, salvaged belongings, and began the arduous task of rebuilding war-torn Germany by simply clearing away the rubble.
In West Germany, the Basic Law of 1949 declared that men and women were equal, but it was not until 1957 that the civil code was amended to conform with this statement. Even in the early 1950s, women could be dismissed from the civil service when they married. After World War II, despite the severe shortage of young men that made marriage impossible for many women, traditional marriage once again became society's ideal. Employment and social welfare programs remained predicated on the male breadwinner model. West Germany turned to millions of migrants or immigrants--including large numbers of GDR refugees--to satisfy its booming economy's labor requirements. Women became homemakers and mothers again and largely withdrew from employment outside the home.
In the east, however, women remained in the workforce. The Soviet-style system mandated women's participation in the economy, and the government implemented this key objective by opening up educational and vocational opportunities to women. As early as 1950, marriage and family laws also had been rewritten to accommodate working mothers. Abortion was legalized and funded by the state in the first trimester of pregnancy. An extensive system of social supports, such as a highly developed day-care network for children, was also put in place to permit women to be both mothers and workers. Emancipated "from above" for economic and ideological reasons, women in the east entered institutes of higher learning and the labor force in record numbers while still maintaining the household. East Germany had to rely on women because of its declining population; the situation was made more critical by the fact that most of those fleeing to West Germany were men.
Because of these developments, about 90 percent of East German women worked outside the home. They made up about half the membership in the two most important mass organizations of the former GDR--the Free German Trade Union Federation (Freier Deutscher Gewerkschaftsbund--FDGB) and the Free German Youth (Freie Deutsche Jugend--FDJ). In 1988 slightly more than one-third of the membership of the ruling Socialist Unity Party of Germany (Sozialistische Einheitspartei Deutschlands--SED) consisted of women. In contrast, only about 4.4 percent of West German women were members of a political party.
After several decades of conforming to traditional social patterns, West German women began to demand changes. Following patterns in Europe and the United States, emancipation in the Federal Republic originated "from below," with women themselves. In the 1970s, the women's movement gathered momentum, having emerged as an outgrowth of student protests in the late 1960s (see Citizens' Initiative Associations, ch. 7). Rallying around the causes of equal rights (including the right to abortion, which was somewhat restricted in West Germany), the movement succeeded in having legislation passed in 1977 that granted a woman equal rights in marriage. A woman could work outside the home and file for divorce without her husband's permission. Divorce was permitted when the marriage partners could no longer be reconciled.
Women also made gains in education in both Germanys. By the mid-1960s, East German women accounted for about half of all secondary school graduates who had prepared to study at institutes of higher learning in the GDR; by the 1975-76 academic year, they were in the majority (53 percent). To assist women in completing their studies, an extensive support system, including supplementary payments and child care, was provided. Expanded educational opportunities for West German women were slower in coming and never equaled the levels reached in the east. Only in the early 1980s did West German women qualify for admission to universities in the same numbers as men. Although fewer than that number pursued college and university studies, between 1970 and 1989 the percentage of female students increased from 31 percent to 41 percent. Two factors were believed to be responsible for the discrepancy between eastern and western rates of attendance at institutes of higher learning: West German women had a stronger orientation toward traditional familial relations; and they had dimmer prospects for admission to particular academic departments and for professional employment after graduation.
Despite significant gains, discrimination remains in united Germany. Income inequalities persist: a woman's wages and salaries range between 65 percent and 78 percent of a man's for many positions. In most fields, women do not hold key positions. Generally, the higher the position, the more powerful is male dominance. For example, women are heavily represented in the traditional care-giving fields of health and education, but even in such fields there is a wide disparity between the number of females working in hospitals (75 percent of total staff) and schools (more than 50 percent) and the number of female physicians (4 percent) and principals (20 percent in the west and 32 percent in the east). In the late 1980s, only 5 percent of university professors in West Germany were women.
Although substantial barriers to equality of the sexes in Germany remain as a result of a persistently patriarchal family structure and work environment, women have managed to gain isolated high-profile victories. A separate national office for women's affairs was created in West Germany in 1980, and similar agencies have been established in most Länder in united Germany. Since the mid-1980s, offices responsible for working toward women's equality have been active, first in West Germany and after unification in the new Länder. The Equality Offices (Gleichstellungstellen) have as one of their tasks ensuring that women occupy a more equitable share of positions in the public sector.
Some women have succeeded in reaching positions of power. One of the most successful women in politics in the 1990s is Rita Süssmuth, president of the Bundestag. In the field of industry, Birgit Breuel assumed the leadership, following the assassination of Detlev Rohwedder in April 1991, of the Treuhandanstalt (Trust Agency), the powerful agency charged with privatizing the former East German economy. Other influential and prominent German women in the mid-1990s are Marion von Dönhoff, coeditor of Die Zeit. and Elizabeth Noelle-Neumann, director of the Allensbach Public Opinion Institute. Yet despite this progress, a 1991 article in an influential weekly magazine made it clear how far women must go to achieve equality. The magazine's list of the 100 most powerful people in Germany included only four women.
Almost all segments of eastern German society encountered tremendous difficulty in the unification process, but women suffered the most. Some reports indicated that two-thirds of working women in the new Länder were unemployed, and many more were turned into part-time workers as a result of privatization, downsizing of firms, and elimination of support services such as day-care and after-school centers. To improve their prospects for employment, some women in eastern Germany reportedly were resorting to sterilization, one of the factors contributing to the steep decline in births from twelve per 1,000 in 1989 to 5.3 per 1,000 in 1993.
Among the issues that demonstrated differences between women of the old and new Länder. one of the most contentious was abortion. In 1991 there were about 125,000 registered abortions performed in Germany, about 50,000 of which were in the east. Although the number of registered abortions in both parts of Germany had been declining in recent years, the actual number of abortions was estimated at about 250,000. For a time following unification, the restrictive western and permissive eastern legislation on abortion continued in force. In June 1992, however, the Bundestag voted to ease abortion restrictions and to permit the procedure during the first twelve weeks of pregnancy with compulsory counseling. Resorting to what had been a successful policy in the early 1970s, those opposed to the new law, including Chancellor Helmut Kohl, appealed to the Federal Constitutional Court in Karlsruhe to nullify the new law. Just before it was scheduled to take effect, the law was blocked when the court issued an injunction. Subsequently, a new restrictive law came to apply in all of Germany.
Data as of August 1995
Entry from: "Germany: A Country Study" published by the Federal Research Division of the Library of Congress.
Economic globalization has become a prominent trend in the 21th century. Since they function as the dominant power of political, economic, cultural and environmental development and are a significant symbol of modernization level, urban clusters have gradually become an important development strategy for national urbanization [ 1. 2. 3 ]. As they are basic units of the urban cluster, cities’ competitiveness has drawn more and more attention from scholars. In the context of urban clusters in China, the comparative competitiveness of urban clusters has usually been evaluated through the competitiveness of cities in urban clusters. Sun compared urban competitiveness among three urban clusters in China by using a factor analysis method and cluster analysis method [ 4 ]. Different methods have been adopted to evaluate cities’ competitiveness in the Pearl River Delta [ 5. 6 ]. The urban competitiveness of the Yangtze River Delta has been examined by various scholars as well [ 7. 8 ]. However, previous studies were mainly confined to one or more urban clusters in a particular region, and always focused on the big urban clusters such as the Pearl River Delta and the Yangtze River Delta, while ignoring other urban clusters. Moreover, comparative studies aiming at different urban clusters were even less common. Hence, a study on the urban competitiveness of urban clusters in China is extremely essential.
Many published theoretical and empirical studies on urban competitiveness have focused on two aspects: the concept and model of urban competitiveness and its empirical analysis. The concept of urban competitiveness was proposed on the basis of national competitiveness. Michael Porter argued that urban competitiveness means the productivity of a city, which refers to its ability to create wealth and increase income [ 9 ]. He also pointed out that the “diamond model” is not only applicable to countries but also to regions and cities. Gordon and Paul put forward that urban competitiveness enables a city to create more income and employment than any other cities within its borders [ 10 ]. Douglas Webster thought that urban competitiveness is an urban area’s ability to produce more products and services and that the improvement of urban competitiveness is mainly meant to raise urban residents’ living standards [ 11 ]. In addition, other scholars have also contributed to the interpretation of urban competitiveness from other perspectives [ 12. 13. 14. 15 ].
For empirical analysis of urban competitiveness, Kresl and Singh in 1999 developed a method of measuring competitiveness that involved sorting 24 large metropolitan areas in the United States and analyzed the ranking results with regression techniques [ 16 ]. Tong evaluated the competitiveness of central cities in northwest areas of China since 1990 [ 17 ]. Jiang and Shen examined the competitiveness of 253 Chinese cities at or above the prefecture level in 2000 by using the equal weighting method [ 18 ]. Singhal et al. compared the competitiveness performance of four cities in the UK [ 19 ]. A few studies on global urban competitiveness have been undertaken by scholars and research institutions [ 20. 21. 22 ].
Although scholars have made great progress in the theoretical and empirical study of urban competitiveness, these studies generally focused on factors that promote urban development, for example, the economic side, while ignoring factors that impede urban development, such as social problems and energy problems. We argue that engine growth, such as economic growth, does not guarantee urban competitiveness, and urban development resistance should be considered when evaluating urban competitiveness. Other conditions being equal, it is obvious that a city with less development resistance would be more competitive. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to design a model for evaluating urban competitiveness by adopting a perspective of object movement, a model based on fully considering the forces acting on a city, including engine growth, development resistance, city interaction and environment conditions. On the basis of that model, a scientific, external and operable index system of urban competitiveness can then be constructed, and the TOPSIS method can be used to measure the competitiveness of 141 cities in 28 Chinese urban clusters in 2009.
The whole paper has been organized into five sections. Following the first section introduction, the second section introduces a three-layer hierarchical indicator system for measuring the urban competitiveness of 141 Chinese cities. The third section focuses on data sources for this study and evaluation of urban competiveness; in this section, using the TOPSIS method, the competitiveness of 141 cities in 28 Chinese urban clusters in 2009 is evaluated. After that, the comparative analysis on these cities and urban clusters is presented in the fourth section. At the end of this paper, the fifth section draws conclusions and provides suggestions for future studies.
2. An Evaluation Index System for Urban Competitiveness 2.1. Urban Competitiveness Model
As basic units of an urban cluster, component cities’ competitiveness functions as an important indicator of the overall competitiveness of an urban cluster, and urban competitiveness manifests itself in many respects, such as economy, society, education and environment. Therefore, the question of how to build a scientific and external urban competitiveness model has attracted both domestic and international scholars. Up to now, quite a few models for evaluating urban competitiveness have been designed by previous researchers. There are some typical western models, such as the international competition evaluation system of countries’ competitiveness established by the World Economic Forum and the Swiss International Management and Development Institute, the diamond model proposed by Michael Porter [ 23 ], and the urban competitiveness model designed by Rondinelli [ 24 ]. By contrast, a typical model in China, proposed by Ni in the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, is the urban competitiveness model; another is the urban value chain model designed by the Beijing International City Development Research Institute [ 25. 26 ].
Most of these models have been established on the basis of the theory of competitive advantages. However, previous studies mainly focused on the advantage factors of driving forces, but ignored those of development resistances. In other words, having little development resistance is also a competitive advantage. If a city was considered as a whole, the comprehensive competitiveness of a city would be the overall performance of driving forces and development resistances. Basing on this view, this paper establishes an urban competitiveness model by regarding city development as object movement.
Since a city was considered a whole in this study and the involved departments, individuals and economic activities were considered components of the whole, it is obvious that the interaction between them has an impact on the city as a whole. Likewise, the development of the city as a whole was compared to the movement of an object, and the components of the whole (department, individuals, etc. ) were compared to different forces acting upon the object. From the principle of object movement, it can be seen that the object receives not only driving and resistance forces, but also influences from external conditions and interaction with other objects. Therefore, urban competitiveness is reflected in not only its individual development but also its interaction with other cities. Based on this analysis, four dimensions—engine growth, development resistance, city interaction and environment conditions—have been chosen to measure comprehensive urban competitiveness. Engine growth is the driving forces in the development of a city, development resistance is the negative effects on urban development, city interaction reflects the ability to exchange resources nearby, and environment conditions describes quality of life; the four dimensions are further divided into 12 sub-elements (see Figure 1 ). A brief introduction on 12 sub-elements is given below.
Economic Strength (ES) is initially used as the primary competitive weapon, and can reflect the economic level and scale of a city. The basic indicators such as GDP growth rate and GDP are important to measure the economy’s gross scale and level, and total industrial output value reflects both the degree of industrialization and urbanization. The share of the tertiary sector in GDP can also reflect the quality of urbanization.
The Role of Government (RG) reflects how efficiently the economy of a city is regulated by the government, which can be measured by five basic indicators. Financial revenue and expenditure both reflect government regulation ability. In this study, the difference between financial revenue and expenditure has not been considered, because the difference is within a controllable range in general. Thus, the financial (or expenditure) revenue and the growth rate are positive indicators for urban competitiveness. The retail price index of commodities and housing sales price index can reflect the macro-control ability for the market, and has an influence on financial revenue and expenditure. It has a positive effect on urban competitiveness.
Resident Consumption Level (RCL) plays a critical role in both economic strength and people’s material standard of living for a city, which can fuel economic growth by stimulating consumption. In this study, the average wage of staff and workers, per capita disposable income of urban residents and six other indicators can reflect the status of residents’ income and consumption.
Human Resources (HR) reflect the quantity and quality of workers, which can be measured by four indicators; the second industry (or the third industry) of employment proportion can also reflect labor creation ability and economic structure.
Science and Technology Strength (S&T) plays an important role in urban competitiveness. Because it is the final promoter of productivity in urban development, six indicators can reflect science and technology strength, including number of colleges and universities in the urban area.
Social Problems (SP) reflects the social security and commercial crimes in a city. The number of fires and traffic accidents, the number of civil cases and the number of criminal cases are used to measure social problems, and the three indicators have negative effects on urban competitiveness
Energy Problems (EP) reflect energy gaps in urban development, which can be measured by two negative indicators: the energy gap and the power gap.
Human Problems (HP) concern labor’s quality and education problems. It can be measured via the illiteracy rate and unemployment rate.
Opening to the Outside World (OOW) can best reflect how open a city is, that is, how many resources a city can provide for its neighboring cities. Urban imports and exports, domestic and foreign tourism income per year and the number of domestic and foreign tourists per year are used to measure it. Note that urban imports and exports are both profitability indicators, not considering the influence of the trade gap.
Foreign Trade Dependency (FTD) corresponds to the opening to the outside world, and represents how many advantages from resources from neighboring cities can be used to develop the city. It can be measured by the total amount of actual investment at home and abroad, actually utilized foreign investment, and urban economic concentration and diffusion ability. The urban economic concentration and diffusion reflects the economic impact on other surrounding cities.
Infrastructure (IFT) is the carriers of economic and social development. This can be measured using the area of paved roads per capita and other 6 basic indicators, which can reflect the living conditions, medical insurance and entertainment for residents in a city.
Environment level (EL) reflects the environmental pollution and management of a city. It can be measured specifically using green area per capita and five other basic indicators.
Urban competitiveness model.
2.2. Construction of Urban Competitiveness Evaluation Indicator System
Comprehensive evaluation of urban competitiveness is a complicated system to engineer and involves a series of indicators. It is not practical to consider all the factors that influence urban competitiveness. The selection of indicators is especially important and will have a direct impact on the results of the evaluation. Therefore, this paper selected some indicators that have been widely used in the previous studies, and added a few new indicators to comprehensively determine urban competiveness.
Given that comprehensiveness, science, comparability and operability are considered the four basic principles of index selection, the index system was carefully analyzed and the appearance percentages of related indicators in 138 papers written by researchers worldwide were calculated; indicators with an appearance percentage above 10% were selected as the main indicators. Meanwhile, some new indicators were involved in order to clearly reflect other factors’ impact on cities’ competitiveness. Firstly, the increasing demand for land area was considered a bench-marking indicator and the house sales price index was used to evaluate the government’s adjustment on real estate. Secondly, the trading volume of the commodity exchanging market was considered an indicator under Residents’ Consumption Level to reflect the local consumption level. Thirdly, college and university teachers were also taken into consideration as an indicator under Science and Technology Strength to evaluate the local education resources. Fourthly, the number of criminal and civil cases was viewed as an indicator of Social Order Problems as well as a reference to local stability. Fifthly, the energy gap fell under Energy Problems to evaluate the development level of local energy. Finally, an index system involving 4 subsystems, 12 elements and 58 indexes for the purpose of measuring urban competitiveness was established in detail and shown in Table 1 .
sustainability-07-04425-t001_Table 1 Table 1
Index system of urban competitiveness.
Unban imports (x39); Unban exports (x40); Domestic and international tourism income per year (x41); Number of domestic and foreign tourists per year (x42)
Total amount of actual domestic and international investment (x43); Actually utilized domestic and international investment (x44); Urban economic concentration and diffusion ability (x45)
Length of paved roads per capita (x46); Electricity consumption per capita (x47); Water consumption per capita (x48); Number of public transportation vehicles per 10 thousand persons (x49); Number of public library books per hundred persons (x50); Number of doctors per 10 thousand persons (x51); Number of telephones per 10 thousand persons (x52)
Area of green land per capita (x53); Percentage of greenery coverage in the built-up area (x54); Percentage of industrial sewage discharged meeting national standard (x55); Number of fine air days per year (x56); Solid waste comprehensive utilization rate (x57); Output of products that comprehensively utilized the “three wastes” (x58)
Note: In Table 1. UC = Urban Competitiveness, EG = Engine Growth, DR = Development Resistance, CI = City Interactions, EC = Environmental Conditions, ES = Economic Strength, RG = The Role of Government, RCL = Resident Consumption Level, HR = Human Resources, S&T = Science and Technology Strength, SOP = Social Order Problems, EP = Energy Problems, HP = Human Problems, OOW = Opening to the Outside World, FTD = Foreign Trade Dependency, IFT = Infrastructure, EL = Environment Level.
2.3. Calculation of Index Weight
The Delphi Principle has been adopted to calculate the weight of each evaluation index. Firstly, a survey on questionnaire-designing was given out to related researchers on Provincial Development and Reform Commissions (PDRC) and some professors studying regional economy. Their feedback again contributed to the improvement of the questionnaire. Secondly, the formal questionnaires were given out and the data from those experts were collected. Thirdly, the weight of each index was calculated based on Formula (1). (1) W j = ∑ i = 0 n c i j ∑ i = 0 n ∑ j = 0 m c i j where n represents the number of experts, m represents the number of index, w j represents the index j th weight, c ij represents the j th score graded by i th experts.
In order to obtain more scientific and authoritative opinions, through consulting experts, as mentioned above, this study firstly collected effective opinions from 36 experts from PDRCs and universities in China, of which 29 experts were from PDRCs and the other 7 from universities. According to their familiarity with the indexes, the following quantization table was designed (as shown in Table 2 ) and how these experts are authoritative in this area was further analyzed using Formula (2).
sustainability-07-04425-t002_Table 2 Table 2
The quantization of expert’s familiarity with each index.
(2) C R = C J + C F 2 where C R represents the authority degree of experts, C J is the quantitative value of judgment basis, C F is the quantitative value of familiarity. According to the results, some experts who are less familiar with the variables were excluded. In this study, experts whose C R is above 0.7 are selected.
Secondly, considering that even cities from the same region may not belong to the same urban cluster, it is obvious that the opinions of PDRC experts from regions that possess more urban clusters are more important than those of experts from other regions. For instance, cities from Henan province belong to four urban clusters respectively, meaning that opinions of experts from the Henan PDRC are more important than those of other PDRC experts. According to this point, a second round of selection was conducted. Experts from the Henan PDRC and other regions’ PDRCs were selected because the numbers of urban clusters in these regions are bigger than or equal to 2. Table 3 shows the number of urban clusters in each region.
sustainability-07-04425-t003_Table 3 Table 3
The number of urban clusters in each region.
Note: In Table 3. Num = the number of urban clusters
According to the steps described above, the study finally identified 16 authoritative experts and the formal questionnaires were modified according to all the experts’ Consejo. In the end, 16 official questionnaires were given out, of which 11 validated questionnaires were collected. Moreover, the 8 PDRC experts are from Henan, Shandong, Anhui, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Hubei, Zhejiang and Jilin and the other 3 are from universities. Finally, based on Formula (1), this study worked out index weight in each layer as shown in Appendix I .
3. Evaluation of City Competitiveness 3.1. Data Sample
The Blue Book of Urban Competitiveness in 2007 defined 30 urban clusters in China [ 27 ]. Since the data from the Taiyuan urban cluster and Central Yunnan urban cluster is missing, this study has chosen 28 urban clusters consisted of 141 Chinese cities, nearly covering all provinces and municipalities in China (excluding Hong Kong, Macon and Taiwan). Specific information on these urban clusters and cities is provided in Appendix II .
3.2. Data Preprocessing
The data in this study were basically obtained from government documents, such as China City Statistical Yearbook of 2010 [ 28 ], China Statistical Yearbook on Environment of 2010 [ 29 ], China Energy Statistical Yearbook of 2010 [ 30 ], the Statistical Yearbooks of relevant provinces and cities, Statistical Bulletin for National Economic and Social development, municipal environment statistical bulletins, media and city soft power, etc. However, due to different statistical methods, data for some cities were actually inaccessible. Given the reliability and authenticity of this study, Table 4 demonstrates the processing modes that deal with the missing indices. The missing data was less than 3% of all data in this study.
sustainability-07-04425-t004_Table 4 Table 4
Processing mode for missing indices.
Source and calculation method
The total population at the end of the year in the statistics yearbook
Financial revenue (expenditure) of local government per capita
Local financial revenue (expenditure)/the total population in the end of the year
KLocal financial revenue growth rate
(Local financial revenue this year − Local financial revenue last year)/Local fiscal last year × 100%
Engel coefficient of urban residents family
Food spending amount/The amount of consumer spending × 100%
Commodity trading market clinches a deal amount
The wholesale of the total retail sales of consumer goods, retail sales in the statistics yearbook
The actual total investment of the abroad
The amount of foreign capital of the contract in statistics yearbook
Number of fire and traffic accidents
The number of known fire accidents × unknown urban land area/Known city land area
Number of civil/criminal cases
Known criminal/the number of civil cases × unknown urban population/Known urban population
Annual energy/power gap
Known annual energy/Power gap × Unknown urban GDP/Known urban GDP
1-Primary school enrollment
3.3. TOPSIS Method
The TOPSIS method has been adopted for ranking the competitiveness of 141 Chinese cities in 2009. First put forward by Hwang and Yoon in 1981 [ 31 ], the TOPSIS method as one kind of MCDM (multiple criteria decision making) is a common assessment method in economic management and decision making. It defines both a positive ideal solution and a negative ideal solution and then ranks solutions on the basis of how close each alternative is to the ideal solution. If an alternative is closest to the positive ideal solution, and it is far away from negative ideal solution, then the alternative is the best solution, that is to say, the alternatives are finally ranked based on sorting the degree of closeness to ideal solution, which is calculated using Formula (3). (3) C i = D i − D i + + D i − where C i represents the degree of closeness to the ideal solution, D i + represents the distance between the alternative and the positive ideal solution, and D i − represents the distance between the alternative and the negative ideal solution. Therefore, TOPSIS has some advantages over others such as stronger geometric explanation, less computation and better operability. What’s more, TOPSIS is not restricted by sample or index numbers, which means that TOPSIS is suitable for large samples and major indexes in urban competitiveness. However, the disadvantage of TOPSIS is that it cannot fully reflect whether the alternative is good when the alternative is close to both the positive ideal solution and the negative ideal solution. In order to avoid this problem, our paper’s analysis is based on classification according to ranking results, rather than the rankings (see Section 4 ).
The city competitiveness index system constructed in this study can be divided into three parts: the subsystem layer, the element layer and the basic index layer. In order to compare and analyze how these different indicators would impact urban competitiveness, the final score of urban competitiveness has to be calculated step by step. Specifically, the score of the element layer can be obtained through index weight and index data of the basic index layer. Similarly, through combining the index weight of the element layer, the score of the subsystem layer can be calculated by using the TOPSIS method. The specific steps are demonstrated in Figure 2 .
Calculation process of urban competitiveness.
3.4. The Ranking Results
As a result, scores for the subsystem layer and urban competitiveness were finally obtained by calculating the collected indexes and their corresponding rankings, which are shown in Appendix III .
4. Comparative Analysis of Calculation Results
Since rankings of cities’ competitiveness have shed light on the classification of urban competitiveness, four levels (A, B, C, D) were finally defined. Among all the cities, the top 35 belonged to level A, the middle 36–70 and 71–105 belonged to level B and level C respectively, while the bottom 106–141 belonged to level D.
4.1. Overview of Urban Competitiveness
Based on cities’ rankings and levels of competitiveness, Figure 3 shows the distributive characteristics of urban competitiveness. More than half of the A-level cities. nearly a third of the B-level cities and ten or more of the C-level cities are located in the southeast area of China, mainly because most cities obviously have enjoyed various geographic advantages and superior industrial foundations in this area. The central area has the largest A-level cities except the southeast area, but it also has the largest D-level cities, and the number is about half. According to this, urban competitiveness in the central area is very unbalanced. With the rise of the central region strategy, there is a great opportunity for cities in this area to promote their development and competiveness. The competitiveness of cities in the Bohai Rim area is mainly at the B and C levels. The overall competitiveness of this area is obviously weaker than that of the southeast, but is stronger than the central area and other regions. Cities in this area should strengthen their economic cooperation and enhance their competitiveness to increase their number of A-level cities. The remaining three regions have more than half C-level and D-level cities, especially the southeast area, which has 4 C-level and 7 D-level cities, while the total number of this area is 15. Due to constraints in geographical location, resource conditions and policy reasons, cities in the west region are still undeveloped. It is necessary for less advanced cities to develop their economies, because economy is the foundation of both social and culture development.
Area profile of each level.
4.2. Relationship among the Four Dimensions of Urban Competitiveness
The urban competitiveness score is calculated by integrating engine growth, development resistance, city interaction and environment conditions. According to this, it is necessary for a city to achieve good performance in all dimensions for higher urban competitiveness. However, there are many possible trade-offs in the process of urban development, which lead to unbalanced development of different dimensions. For example, the contradiction between economic growth and environmental protection is prominent in developing countries such as China. Therefore, the relationship among four dimensions in urban competitiveness has been examined directly by correlation coefficient and scatter plot in this section. The Pearson correlation coefficients of the scores of overall competitiveness and four components were calculated. Given that cities with different levels of competitiveness may have differences in the relationships among dimensions, the analysis of relationships among dimensions is divided into five groups according to cities’ levels of competitiveness.
(1) Relationships among the four dimensions of urban competitiveness of 141 cities.
The calculation result reveals that engine growth, city interaction and environment conditions are positively correlated and statistically significant at 0.05, and the relationship between urban competitiveness and the four dimensions is also positive. However, the relationship between development resistance and other dimensions are weak, which also can be seen from the Figure 4. Figure 4 shows that there is an obvious linear positive correlation between urban competitiveness and engine growth, with a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.92. Similarly, the engine growth and city interaction present a positive correlation at a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.81. This is probably because engine growth and city interaction are closely related and interactive with each other. The relationship between engine growth and environmental conditions (0.58) was closer than the correlation between city interaction and environmental conditions (0.41). Perhaps a city with better performance in EG and city interaction will help provide better environmental conditions.
The scatter plot of dimensions of 141 cities.
(2) Relationships among the four dimensions of urban competitiveness of A-level cities
Similar to the result of 141 cities, Figure 5 shows that urban competitiveness has a strong linear positive correlation with engine growth, city interaction and environmental conditions, but has a weak negative correlation with development resistance. Moreover,engine growth and city interaction both have a negative correlation with development resistance, and the correlation coefficients are respectively 0.36 and 0.34. According to the ranking result in every dimensions of urban competitiveness, this reveals that some A–level cities may have unbalanced performance, with DR rank far behind. For instance, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Beijing and Tianjin, the rank of development resistance are all after 90. The quick development of a city may produce some negative effects, such as social problems and energy shortages, which will increase development resistance.
The scatter plot of dimensions of A-level cities.
(3) Relationships among the four dimensions of urban competitiveness of B-level cities
Compared with the two cases introduced, urban competitiveness has a weaker positive correlation with engine growth and city interaction. Figure 6 shows that the relationship between urban competitiveness and development resistance, urban competitiveness and environmental conditions are not correlated, which indicates that the urban competitiveness of B-level cities is more unbalanced in all dimensions. In addition, the negative correlation between engine growth and environmental conditions confirms that these cities may achieve rapid development at the expense of the environment. It is necessary for these cities to pay more attention to the environment while developing their economy.
The scatter plot of dimensions of B-level cities.
(4) Relationships among the four dimensions of urban competitiveness of C-level cities
Figure 7 shows that urban competitiveness has a weaker positive relationship with engine growth, city interaction and environmental conditions. But according to the calculation of the correlation coefficient, only the relationship between urban competitiveness and EC is at a significant level of 0.05, with a correlation coefficient of 0.45. That is to say, the urban competitiveness of C-level cities mainly depends on environmental conditions. Engine growth has a negative relationship with development resistance and environmental conditions, suggesting that these cities are currently in the developing period, because there are some conflicts among these dimensions which have restricted the overall development of the city.
The scatter plot of dimensions of C-level cities.
(5) Relationships among the four dimensions of urban competitiveness of D-level cities
Urban competitiveness has a strong positive relationship with development resistance that is different from other cities with other levels (as shown in Figure 8 ). Meanwhile, the scores for both environmental conditions and development resistance are low, similar to the overall urban competitiveness. Due to their late start, these cities ranked far behind in all four dimensions. The different dimensions are also almost uncorrelated. Therefore, specific advantages of these cities should be identified and fully taken advantage of to achieve their balanced development in other aspects.
The scatter plot of dimensions of D-level cities.
Based on previous study models of urban competitiveness, this study has designed and established an evaluation system for urban competitiveness involving 12 indicators in the element layer and 58 indicators in the basic index layer. It adopted the TOPSIS method to evaluate cities’ competitiveness in 28 urban clusters (including 141 Chinese cities) in 2009. Based on measurement results, four levels (A, B, C, and D) have been defined to conduct comparative analysis between cities in different regions. In addition, the relationship among different dimensions has been examined and analyzed using scatter plots and the Pearson correlation coefficient. Based on their own situations, different urban clusters and cities should improve their overall competitiveness by enhancing the competitiveness of other relevant dimensions. No doubt there are flaws in the study and further improvement is necessary. For future research, Yunnan city clusters and Taiyuan city clusters should be taken into consideration, and a comprehensive and dynamic evaluation should be performed for demonstrating long-term urban competitiveness.
Introducción
China's effort to produce enough to feed its growing population has long been recognized. It feeds over one-fifth of the world's population with only one-fifteenth of the world's arable land. In recent history, China has either exported food or imported relatively little. China was a net exporter of food, even of grain, in the 1950s. Although China became a net importer of grain in the 1960s, the share of net imports to total domestic consumption was marginal. Net import shares reached approximately three percent in the early reform period (1978-84), then declined to approximately one percent in the following period (1985-90). China has since become a net grain exporter, except in 1995 when it had a record level grain imports of nearly 20 million tons. Net exports between 1992 and 1994 were over 5 million tons annually.
While China's grain imports may grow slightly in the coming decades, the nation has developed a strong position as a net exporter of food (both grain and non grain) in value terms by exporting high value-added foodstuff including livestock products and other processed foods during the reform period. Net food exports grew to 2.3 billion US dollars in 1985 and peaked at 6.3 billion dollars in 1993, from a state of balanced trade (in value terms) in 1980 (China Customs Statistics).
China's future food security, however, is a subject of growing concern. First, although China's food production has grown over the last several decades, year-to-year fluctuations of food supply and prices are significant . Market stabilization and food price inflation have been among the major targets of government policy since the late 1980s. The Chinese government considers maintaining a comparatively high level of food self-sufficiency, avoiding supply shocks, and stabilizing consumer prices, a matter of national security and stability: Only when the Chinese people are free from food availability and stability of food supply worries can they concentrate on and support the current reform, thus ensuring a sustained, rapid and healthy development of the economy ( The State Council, 1996 ) . To this end, the government recently adopted measures to stabilize domestic food supply and stabilize the market - these measures include administrative and economic intervention in food distribution and marketing systems, national and local food reserve schemes, price regulations, international trade, factor markets, and rural infrastructure development.
Secondly, food security and access to food are mainly poverty issues. Although national economic growth is strong, it is uneven across regions. Farmer's incomes in the central and eastern regions of China continue to grow more rapidly than those in the west and southwest. Income inequality among regions, between rural and urban areas, and within regions continues to grow (MOA, 1997). In the early 1980s, tremendous progress was made in addressing China's poverty problem, mainly due to the government's rural reform program. However, this progress has slowed down over the past ten years.
Finally, China's food supply availability could be a major food security issue in the coming decades if policies were not formulated in the right directions. Worldwide, food production growth rates have outpaced population growth in recent decades, implying increased food availability per capita. Furthermore, the decline of real food and feed grain prices internationally over the same period implies that supply increases have exceeded increased demand. However, the situation differs from country to country.
China faces the great challenge of feeding its growing population with declining land, water, and other food production resources, and increasing opportunity cost of labor and domestic food production cost. Food supply availability in China is important not only because it concerns a large proportion of the world's population and consumption, but also because rapid industrialization has led to competition for resources between agricultural and non-agricultural sectors, strong income growth, rapid urbanization, and population growth. All of these stimulate demand for agricultural products.
Government officials and scholars have focused food economy and food security concerns on the grain economy because grain (both food and feedgrain) is a major component of China's food supply. Historically, grain fundamentalism, the provision of adequate cereal grain supplies at low stable prices to urban residents, has been an overriding government concern. Recurring food shortages, particularly the famine of the early 1960s, increased the official desire for assured and secure grain supplies. This concern, coupled with rapidly increasing urbanization, domestic infrastructure and transport constraints, domestic grain price spikes in 1994/1995, Brown's 1995 prediction that China will become an importer of massive amounts of grain in the next few decades, the weaknesses of the fiscal system in the provision of public goods (particular agricultural research and extension), has attracted worldwide attention in the past 4 years.
A number of recent studies conducted by both domestic and international organizations have led to a consensus that while the increases in China's grain imports will be marginal and the nation will remain at a high level of food self-sufficiency in the coming decades, China's long-term food security is an issue of both national and international significance. The sheer size of China's economy and its rapid growth will make China a crucial influence in the future development of world markets for inputs and outputs of food and agricultural products, agribusiness, and industry. Along with this growth is its gradual progress toward market-orientation and global integration, urbanization, the shift of comparative advantage from agriculture to other sectors, and dietary diversification. Small adjustments to China's food supply and demand, agricultural input demand shifts, and the Chinese government's selection of food security policy will each have large effects on world agricultural trade.
This paper evaluates China's food security situation, reviews the performance of the food and agricultural sector, considers the role of food policies, particularly the most recent price and marketing reform policies, in improving the food situation, and identifies key issues related to food security which require further intervention. The next section reviews previous achievements and sources of growth in agricultural production and food security. The third section analyzes current government policies and programmes and their impacts on agricultural production and food security. The fourth section predicts the shape of China's food economy over the next three decades; while the fifth section discusses the major challenges and constraints to agricultural production and food security. Concrete measures and options towards sustainable agricultural growth and food production are suggested in the final section.
Food security and the performance of the agricultural sector
Food security: an overview
China's ability to feed over one-fifth of the world's population with only seven percent of the world's arable land is widely acclaimed. China, with more than 1.23 billion people in 1997, is the world's most populous nation. Its experience demonstrates the importance of technological development, institutional change, improved incentives, and rural development among other policies in improving food security with limited natural resources.
Availability of food
China's per capita food availability and consumption have increased over the last several decades. Average per capita food availability has grown from less than 1700 kcal in 1960 to 2570 kcal per day in 1995 (Table 1)[19]. Increased domestic production is almost solely responsible for increased food availability. Protein intake and fat consumption per capita per day increased over the same period, from 42 grams to 70 grams, and 17 grams to 45 grams, respectively. Both figures exceed average nutrient availability in countries with comparable per capita GNP levels.
Nutritional composition changes of Chinese diets are consistent with growing income (Table 1). Nutrient sources are a powerful indicator of the population's economic wellbeing. In low income countries, the average diet includes a high percentage of nutrients from crops, while a typical developed country diet includes a relatively high percentage of nutrients from animal sources. In China, traditional diets were typically based on cereals, vegetables, and small quantities of meat and fish. Consumption of relatively expensive non-cereal food items, particularly livestock products and fish, have increased with rapid increases in per capita income, urbanization, and market expansion (Huang and Bouis, 1996).
Aggregate household food security
Aggregate household food security has improved significantly. According to the FAO's WFS (1996), Chinese household food security, as measured by the aggregate household food security index (AHFSI) and the level of food inadequacy, follow overall national averages. The AHFSI increased from a low level of 70 percent in 1969-71 to a relatively high level of nearly 80 percent in 1990-92, while food inadequacy declined from slightly over 14 percent to approximately 3 percent in the same period.
Table 1. Nutrient availability
Note: data are based on a survey conducted by the State Statistical Bureau in 9 sample provinces (including Heilongjiang, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Shandong, Hebei, Zhejiang, Guangdong, Sichuan, and Yunnan) in 1987.
Household food security growth is a product of rural income growth. Annual per capita rural income increased to almost four times its original level during the reform period (1978-95). Growth of the rural non-agricultural sector, in addition to that of the agricultural sector, is a major source of increased rural income. The ratio of agricultural (crop, forest, livestock, fishery) to non-agricultural income declined from 5.6 in 1978 to a low of 1.6 in 1996 (Table 7).
Table 7. Income, equity, food budget share and poverty in rural China, 1978-96.
Real per cap. income index
Agri/non-agri income ratio
Sources: Computed based on rural food and consumption survey data, SSB and Statistical Yearbook of China, 1997. A significant reduction in the number of people in poverty, one of the most important causes of under nutrition and food insecurity, have also increased China's food security. Per 1992 World Bank estimates, the number of persons in absolute poverty has fallen from roughly 260 million in 1978 to 96 million in 1985, a decline from about one third to 12 percent of the total rural population. By 1996, the figure declined to 58 million, about 6.7 % of the total rural population (Huang et. al. 1998).
Summary of China's approaches to improved food security
China's experience demonstrates the importance of technological development in addition to improved incentives, institutional reform, rural economic development, and other policies that increase food availability. Technology is the driving force behind China's agricultural economic growth (Stone, 1988; Huang and Rozelle, 1996). China's technological base grew rapidly during the reform and pre-reform periods. Shorter growth season photosensitive crop varieties, for example, increased intensive land cultivation, raised the multiple cropping index, and increased grain production per mu in the 1960s and 70s. Hybrid rice, pioneered by Chinese scientists in the 1970s, increased yields in many parts of the country and spread to almost one half of the rice growing area by 1990. Other grain crops have experienced similar technological transformation.
Institutional arrangements and government food policies are also important determinants of China's food production and availability. Prior to the economic reform of 1979, the centrally planned economy was solely responsible for both, at the expense of economic efficiency. China adopted an industrial-biased development strategy in the 1950s which made accumulation of capital for industrialization a top priority. Official policy kept industrial wages and food prices artificially low by replacing free market operation with state compulsory agricultural procurement, planned production, and food rationing. The industrial-biased development strategy and its practical applications affected food security at the national and household levels. The urban food rationing (food stamp) system guaranteed urban food supply and, to a lesser extent, rural food deficits. The rationing system provided a minimum amount of energy and protein to urban residents based on age, sex, and occupation. In rural food surplus areas, local production and state food procurement, based on previous production and fixed for three to five years, determined local food consumption. Procurement practices tied rural household food consumption to local production.
Low economic growth, caused by economic inefficiency, sustained rural poverty and blocked rural income growth. In 1978, one third of China's total population remained under the poverty line. After 1979, China adopted institutional and economic reforms to shift from a socialist to a more open, market-oriented economy with generally positive results. Agricultural production jumped as reforms liberalized production and consumption institutions and markets. The gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate during the reform period was roughly double that of the pre-reform period (1970-78, Table 8). Annual GDP growth rates have exceeded nine percent over the last 15 years. Agricultural production nearly tripled, and consumption rose to four times its original level during the same period (Table 8).
China's reform policies recognized that, given limited natural resources (especially arable land), agricultural production growth is a necessary but not a sufficient condition for creating a booming rural economy and raising rural incomes. Institutional reform-related efficiency gains created rural labor surpluses. Governments have chosen several approaches including migration from rural to urban areas, employment generation in rural areas (in both agricultural and non-agricultural sectors), and a combination of the two, to deal with surplus rural labour. Evidence from many developing countries indicates the importance of expanding industry in rural areas to generate employment. China is one of the most successful examples of this development strategy.
Table 8. The annual growth rates (%) of China's economy, 1970-96
a: Figure for GDP in 1970-78 is the growth rate of national income in real term.
Note: Growth rates are computed using regression method. GDP and per capita consumption growth rates refer to the value in real terms.
Source: SSB, Statistical Yearbook of China, various issues. China's rural township and village enterprises (TVEs, including all enterprises in rural areas owned by townships, villages, and private individuals) grew rapidly following the rural reforms of 1979 and now play a substantial role in China's economy and rural income growth. Rural TVEs accounted for more than three quarters of rural gross output value by 1996 and dominate many industrial sectors including textiles, farm machinery and equipment, other simple machinery, construction materials, food processing, and various consumer goods. The development of TVEs in rural China not only generates employment for rural labor, but also raises farmer's income, promotes rural urbanization and market development, and stimulates structural changes in the rural economy.
Poverty reduction in China is closely related to rural economic growth. Broad participation in rural economic growth brought about a tremendous reduction in absolute poverty in China during 1978-85. The country has also generated employment for nearly 200 million rural surplus labour through the rural TVEs development, rural-urban migration, and other economic activities over the past decade. Official policy targets stability of food supply and access for the poor, both important aspects of national food security. The government has developed a disaster relief programme and large scale food-for-work schemes. China has adequate capacity to weather natural disasters (WFP, 1994). The major constraints to food supply stabilization are poor market infrastructure, internal transportation and inefficiency in buffer stock operations.
Other issues
Although general nutrition has improved, malnutrition exists, particularly among the poor and in inland provinces. Children are especially vulnerable. According to a recent survey conducted by the Chinese Academy of Prevention Sciences, on average, about 15 percent children under five are underweight, 30 percent stunted, and 3 percent wasted, though these levels compare favorably with developing country averages. An estimated one quarter of the population is at risk for Vitamin A deficit. Iron deficiency anemia is another significant risk, especially in rural areas. The income gap between inland and coastal regions and between rural and urban areas is growing wider. Within rural areas, the income gap between rich and poor has grown since the late 1970s. The real income growth of the poor is generally lower than that of the whole population (Table 7). Gini coefficients, measures of income inequality, rose from 0.21 in 1978, to 0.31 in 1990, and 0.33 in 1995.
Policies successful in the past do not guarantee future agricultural production growth. China has successfully developed new technology, altered institutional structures, and mobilized labor and other resources to support agricultural growth, but new technology is uncertain, subject to investment policy, and vulnerable to research institution reforms. The current technology extension system is deteriorating, and additional efficiency gains from institutional change are limited. Domestic food prices are close to (occasionally higher than) world market prices. Protection of domestic food production could be both costly and difficult if China wishes to meet the WTO's entry requirements. Stability of food supply and domestic market prices in the future will highly depend on the ongoing grain market and buffer reserve system reforms. In addition, resources have shifted from agricultural to non-agricultural sectors. Resource frontier expansion is problematic due to limited supply and high development costs. These issues will be discussed in more detail later in the context of other constraints and challenges.
Changing role of agriculture in the economy
Agriculture has made important, but declining contributions to national economic development in terms of gross value added, employment, capital accumulation, urban welfare, and foreign exchange earnings. Successive transformations of China's reform economy are based on economic growth in the agricultural sector. However, agriculture's role has declined. Before 1980, agriculture contributed more than 30 percent of GDP and half of export earnings. Each share fell below 20 percent by the early 1990s (Table 9). Agriculture employed 81 percent of labor in 1970, but only 50 percent in 1996.
The decline of agriculture's international trade role is particularly striking. The share of primary (mainly agricultural) products in total exports was 50 percent in 1980 (Table 9). By the mid-1990s, the share was less than 15 percent. The share of food export to total exports fell from 16 percent in 1988 to approximately 7 percent in 1996. Food imports fell from 15 percent to 4 percent in the same period.
The declining importance of agriculture is historically common to all developing economies. China is densely populated; farm sizes averaged less than one hectare as early as the 1950s. Population growth and limited land resources will shift China's comparative advantage from land intensive economic activities like agriculture to labour intensive manufacturing and industrial activities (Anderson 1990). Cropping is the dominant sub-sector within agriculture. In 1978, it contributed 80 percent of the gross value of agricultural output (SSB). By the mid-1990, its contribution fell to 58 percent. The shares of livestock and aquatic output more than doubled during the same period (Table 10).
Table 9. Changes in structure of China's economy, 1970-96.
Agricultural production growth
Agricultural production growth is one of the main accomplishments of China's development and national food security policies. Production growth rates have outpaced population growth since the early 1950s, except during the famine years of the late 1950s and early 1960s. Even between 1970 and 1978, when much of the economy was reeling from the effects of the Cultural Revolution, grain production grew at 2.1 annually (Table 12). Oil crop production grew 2.1 percent annually and fruit and meat output increased by 3 -7 percent.
Decollectivization, price increases, and relaxation of trade restrictions on most agricultural products fueled China's food economy take off (1978- 84). Grain production increased 4.7 percent annually, and fruit output rose 7.2 percent. Oil crop, livestock, and aquatic production grew spectacularly, expanding annually in real value terms by 14.9 percent, 9.0 percent, and 8.8 percent respectively. The one time efficiency gains of the shift to the household responsibility system were exhausted by the mid 1980s. Agricultural production decelerated. The decline was most pronounced for grains and oil crops, sectors in which prices and markets were still highly regulated. Growth rates of other crops, livestock and poultry, and fishery products have remained steady or increased during the reform period in response to rising demand and market and price liberalization (Table 12).
Studies demonstrate that a number of factors contributed simultaneously to agricultural growth during the reform period. The earliest empirical efforts focused on the contributions of the household responsibility system (McMillan et. al. 1989; Fan, 1991; Lin, 1992). These studies conclude that most increased productivity was a result of institutional innovations, particularly the rural household responsibility system that restored the primacy of the individual household in place of the collective production team system as the basic unit of production and management in rural China. Recent studies show that technological change has become the primary engine of agricultural growth since the completion of the household responsibility system reform in 1984 (Huang and Rozelle, 1996; Huang et. al. 1996). Technology improvements contributed the largest share of grain production growth even in the early reform period.
Results indicate that reforms beyond decollectivization have high potential to affect agricultural growth. Price policy has had a sharp influence on the growth of grain and cash crops during the post-reform period. Favourable output to input price ratios contributed to rapid growth in the early 1980s. However, new market force is a two-edged sword. Price ratio deterioration caused by gradually increasing output prices and rapidly rising input prices was one cause of the agricultural production slowdown of the late 1980s and early 1990s. Rising wages and land use opportunity costs constrained the growth of grain output throughout that period and the growth of cash crops since 1985. Growing environmental degradation (erosion, salinization, and loss of cultivated land) may reduce the agricultural land base. Erosion and salinization have increased since the 1970s, to the detriment of grain, rice, and other farm products (Huang and Rozelle, 1995; Huang et al. 1996).
Table 12. Growth rate (%) of agricultural economy by sector and selected agricultural commodities, 1970-96.
Agricultural output value
Note: Growth rates are computed using regression method. Growth rates of individual and groups of commodities are based on production data; sectoral growth rates refer to value added in real terms.
Source: SSB, Statistical Yearbook of China, various issues; A Statistical Survey of China, 1996. MOA, Agricultural Yearbook of China, various issues.
Agricultural development strategy, policies and food security
Government targets for agriculture in 2000 and 2010
Food self-sufficiency will continue to be the central goal of China's agricultural policy. The Ninth Five-Year Plan for 1996-2000 and the National Long Term Economic Plan call for continued agricultural production growth, annual farm income growth of four percent, maintenance of food self-sufficiency, and elimination of poverty. The plans hope to achieve the following key targets (Table 13):
Increase grain production to 490-500 mmt (rice measured by paddy grain) with an annual increase of 10 mmt by 2000; develop sustainable grain production growth through increased public investments in agriculture and science and technology with a target of 560 mmt grain production by the year 2010; increase production of aquatic products and meat by10 million tons each by 2000.
Increase agricultural output value (in 1990 prices) by four percent annually and maintain similar growth rates throughout the first decade of the 21st century;
Increase poverty alleviation funds and eliminate poverty among the 65 million in 1995 in absolute poverty by the year 2000.
Table 13. Government targets for agricultural development in 2000
2000 (in million mt)
Grain is measured in unprocessed form, i. e. rice is in paddy form. Source: Li Peng, 1996. Strategies to achieve these targets and goals include the following:
deepening rural economic and institutional reforms,
improving incentives for farmers and local governments to invest in agriculture (particularly land),
increasing the rate of regeneration of renewable resources,
regulating the exploitation of non-renewable resources,
providing input and output price incentives to increase the multiple cropping index,
extending applications of scientific methods to the agricultural sector,
adjusting rural economic structures,
optimizing agricultural production linkages,
strengthening anti-poverty programs, further opening the agricultural sector to foreign investment, and
improving the efficiency of agriculture's foreign capital use.
Public investment policies
The overriding concern of the industrially-biased development strategy was the accumulation of capital for industrialization. China looked to agriculture, the source of nearly 60 percent of national income and more than 80 percent of employment in the early 1950s, to provide the needed capital. Table 14 indicates that while government expenditure and investment had shown a general increasing trend in the pre-reform period, their shares to the total economy had a declining trend since the early 1960s.
Because the share of agricultural production (such as value added) in the economy has also been declining over time, we construct an index of government investment bias (IB) to evaluate public investment policy. This was done by roughly dividing the ratio of government investment (expenditure) in agriculture to total government investment (expenditure) by the ratio of agricultural GDP to total GDP. If this index value equals 1, IB=1 (or 100 percent), the investment policy is neutral, encouraging neither agricultural nor non-agricultural productions. If IB<1, there is an anti-agriculture bias in the government expenditure (investment) policy. Otherwise, IB>1 implies a pro-agricultural production bias.
As Table 14 shows, the bias index of government expenditure in agriculture is below the 100 percent level, indicating strong government expenditure biases against agriculture. While reform has accelerated the growth of agriculture since the late 1970s, Table 14 also indicates that the new institutional arrangement has not provided the incentive to invest in agriculture. The ratio of public expenditure in agriculture to total public expenditure declined sharply in the early reform period (1979-85). The magnitude of the estimated BI decreased from 48 percent in 1978 to 27 percent in 1985. Among various components of the public agricultural expenditure, the decline in the share of local government was highest in the agricultural capital construction investment (i. e. irrigation), which fell from 63 percent in 1978 to 47 percent in 1985 (Huang and David, 1995).
Declining public agricultural expenditures attracted attention to agricultural production sustainability and future domestic food supply problems. Investment policy reviews led to increased investment in the early 1990s (Table 14). Both the Ninth Five-Year Plan (1996-2000) and China's Long Term Plan to 2010 advocate increased public agricultural investment, including investments in rural infrastructure and loans and credits for agricultural production. Irrigation and water control are the top priorities of future government investment.
However, due to the weaknesses of the fiscal system, the new policy to increase public investment in agriculture has been hardly implemented. Many policies and regulations have been promulgated regarding the provision of a minimum level of agricultural and public goods, but there is no budget to back them up. Without sufficient budget or staff policies cannot be effectively carried out.
Table 14. Government investment (billion yuan in 1985 price) in agriculture, 1965-96.
Fiscal and financial policies
The previous sub-section shows under-investment in the agricultural sector in the past. To have a better understanding of government policy bias among sectors, we need to look at both fiscal and financial policies as well as the state agricultural product procurement policy (implicit tax). This section examines government fiscal revenue (tax or explicit tax, and other revenue) and expenditure in agriculture, and capital transfer from agricultural (rural) to industry (urban). The next section discusses accumulation of capital from agriculture for industrialization through the state agricultural procurement system.
Table 15 presents annual fiscal cash flows between agriculture/rural and industry/urban from 1978 to 1996. It shows that government fiscal expenditure on agriculture has been consistently higher than fiscal revenue from agricultural tax and other fees collected from agriculture. However, we will show later that this fiscal revenue from agriculture based on explicit tax and fees is only a small portion of the total agricultural capital contribution to the industry and to the urban sector. It is also interesting to note that rural development in TVE sector has contributed significant fiscal income for the government and has led to a net capital outflow of rural to urban sectors since 1985.
Table 15. Fiscal cash flow (billion at 1985 price) between agriculture and industry, rural and urban sectors, 1978-96.
Fiscal revenue from
The financial system is an important channel that can transfer capital from one sector to the other. Tables 16 and 17 indicate that a significant capital outflow from agriculture to industry occurred in the last 2 decades through the financial system, particularly through Rural Credit Cooperatives (RCC). A much higher value of capital outflow from rural to urban sectors than from agriculture to industry clearly shows that capital accumulated from agriculture not only supports industrialization in the urban sector but also provides notable financial resource for the successful development of rural industry (TVEs). Most of this capital accumulation from agriculture to industry is through the RCC system.
Table 16. Financial flow (billion yuan in 1985 price) between agriculture and industry, rural and urban through ABC and ADBC
Note: ABC - Agricultural Bank of China; ADBC - Agricultural Development Bank of China
Table 17. Financial flow (billion yuan in 1985 price) from agriculture/rural to industry/urban through Rural Credit Cooperative (RCC), 1978-96.
After accounting for agricultural implicit tax through the government procurement system (see next section for details), China accumulated about 313 billion yuan (at 1985 prices) from the agricultural sector for national industrialization in 1978-96, and about 563 billion yuan from the rural sector for the urban economy in the same period (Table 18). Moreover, the shifting capitals from the agriculture to the industry, and from the rural sector to the urban have shown an increasing trend since the reform initiated in the late 1970s.
Table 18. Capital flow (billion yuan in 1985 price) from agriculture/rural to industry/urban through fiscal, financial and grain procurement systems.
Grain Marketing (implicit tax)
Agri to Industry
Agri to Industry
Agri to Industry
Food price and marketing policies before 1998
Price and market reforms are key components of China's development policy shift from a socialist to a market-oriented economy. The price and market reforms initiated in the late 1970s were aimed at raising farm level prices and gradually liberalizing the market. These reforms included the following:
increases in quota and above quota prices,
reduction in quota levels,
introduction of above quota bonuses for cotton, tobacco, and other cash crops,
negotiated procurement of surplus production of grains, oils, and most other commodities, and
flexibility in marketing of surplus production of all categories of agricultural products privately.
Nonetheless, the limited and differential rate of liberalization of the agricultural markets have had substantial impact on productivity and commodity composition at the household and national levels (Huang, Rosegrant and Rozelle, 1995). The shift from the collective and household responsibility system also raised the price responsiveness of farm-households. As the right to private trading was extended to include surplus output of all categories of agricultural products after contractual obligations to the state were fulfilled, the foundations of the state marketing system began to be undermined.
After a record growth in agricultural production in 1984 and 1985, a second stage of price and market reforms was announced in 1985. This was aimed at radically limiting the scope of government price and market interventions and further enlarging the role of market allocation. Farmers and state commercial departments were to "negotiate" purchase contracts before the planting season at the weighed average quota and above quota prices. Other than for grains and cotton, the intention was to gradually eliminate planned procurement of agricultural products; government commercial departments may only continue to buy and sell at the market. The contract system, however, also resulted in a negative impact on the agricultural production as the marginal price of producer declined (Sicular, 1991).
Because of the sharp drop in agricultural production and severe food price inflation after 1985, however, the implementation of the new policy was stalled. Mandatory procurement of grains, oil crops, and cotton continued at the "contract price" which basically was a weighted average of the former quota and above quota prices. To provide more incentives for farmers to raise productivity and sell to the government, contract prices were raised over time. However, the increase in the nominal agricultural procurement price was lower than the inflation rate, which led to a decline in the real agricultural product price.
As agricultural production and prices stabilized in 1990-1992, another attempt was made to basically abolish the compulsory quota system and the sale at ration prices to consumers in early 1993. While both the state distribution and procurement systems had been successfully liberalized, the state compulsory quota system was reimposed in most parts of China in 1994 and all over China in 1995. This reversed policy was a result of higher food price inflation and fear of the shortage of food supply. Several new policies have been implemented since late 1994. Government grain procurement again became compulsory.
In the meantime, China implemented the other important agricultural marketing policy in 1994-1995: the provincial governor's "Rice Bag" responsibility system. It is designed to strengthen food security and grain markets by making provincial governors and governments responsible for balancing grain supply and demand and stabilizing local food markets and prices. This policy has already contributed to increased output, more stable grain production and a significant reduction in short-run agricultural price fluctuations. However, such a policy is not without costs. Although its impact on national grain market integration is minimal and lower than expected (Rozelle et al, 1996; Yu and Huang, 1998), the policy's impact on the efficiency of resource allocation, diversification of agricultural production, and farmer's incomes should not be ignored.
To measure the impact of government policy on agricultural prices, domestic price is compared with the price in the absence of government intervention or under free trade. The impact of commodity-specific price interventions such as the domestic procurement and distribution system, tariffs, exports taxes, quantitative trade restriction on domestic prices is estimated by the nominal protection rate (NPR), the percentage difference between domestic and border price converted at the official exchange rate. To measure the total effect of government interventions, including the effect of exchange rate distortions, the net NPR is estimated, i. e. the percentage difference between domestic and border price converted at the equilibrium exchange rate. In order to investigate different price and marketing policies on the agricultural incentive, nominal price protection rates are estimated at various policy (price) levels. Table 19 shows the estimates of nominal protection rate based on various producers' prices from 1978 to 1996 for rice, wheat, maize, and soybean. Table 20 indicates the estimated NPRs for the same commodities based on the black market rate.
It should be noted that the black market rate is about equal to the secondary or swap market exchange rate, and thus the NPRs in Table 20 reflect the effect of the two-tier exchange rate system. The two different estimates of NPRs represent upper and lower bounds of the degree of protection or "disprotection" (taxed) due to commodity-specific and exchange rate policies. The exact rate of nominal protection rate depends on the proportion of foreign exchange earnings from exports or foreign exchange requirements of imports that can be sold or purchased, respectively, at the official vs the black market or secondary exchange rate which may differ across commodities and trading corporations and over time. It should be emphasized that the black market rate does not correspond to the equilibrium exchange rate which would have obtained under free trade situation.
Table 19. Nominal protection rates (NPR) of grain (at official exchange rate), 1978-96
Quato procurement price
Several observations may be made from Table 19 and 20. The quota prices consistently represented a disprotection to farmers. The estimated rate of disprotection, as expected, is more severe when the black market rate is used as the exchange rate.
The introduction of negotiated procurement significantly reduced the disprotection from government procurement operations (see NPRs on negotiated procurement prices). Note, however, that the NPRs based on the black market rate remain negative for all grains in most of the years.
Not surprisingly, the most heavily taxed commodities are the exportable - rice and corn. Wheat, importable commodity, is more favored. Among grains, the most heavily taxed is rice which has the lowest NPR based on both the procurement and market prices. Aside from the lower quota price NPR for rice, the proportion of grain procurement at the higher negotiated price is typically higher for corn and soybeans. It is interesting to note that the proportional difference between market and procurement price is much greater for corn and soybeans compared to rice. Evidently, export controls are more restrictive on rice, the main food staple.
Table 20. Nominal protection rates (NPR) of grain (at shadow exchange rate), 1978-96
Quato procurement price
Negotiated procurement price
In sum, despite substantial efforts to liberalize the price and market structure of the agricultural sector, most major agricultural commodities continued to be heavily penalized by commodity specific policies. When the impact of the overvaluation of the domestic currency due to the trade protection system is considered, the agricultural incentives would decline even more. These distortions in price incentives depress agricultural production and redistribute income from farmers to urban consumers and the agro-processing sector.
Ongoing grain market and reserve reform
With three record levels of grain production in China in 1995-1997, almost zero inflation since 1997, raising grain stocks, and decline in food prices recently, China is initiating a new grain marketing and reserve reform. This was, one of three major reforms (grain marketing and circulation, SOE, and financial reforms) announced by Zhu Rongji in April 1998. The overall goals of the reform are "to improve the efficiency of grain marketing system and to reduce central government's fiscal burden in financing grain circulation and reserve system."
Major components of the ongoing reform include the following: 1 ) Clear separation of commercial and policy arms of grain market.
A new reserve system will be set up with 0.6 to 0.7 million people from the current grain bureau system (4.13 million people including retirees), the rest will be in commercialized arm of grain trading companies.
2 ) Clear separation of commercial and policy functions of grain market.
Commercialization of all but the storage arm of the grain bureau (the new reserve system) will be undertaken and will have no storage responsibilities for the buffer stocks or disaster relief grain. Traders will be responsible for profits and losses and completely independent of the budget. They will have responsibilities to collect and ship quota collections, but will do so for a fee for the grain reserve system.
3 ) Clear separation of responsibilities between central and local governments.
The central government will play no part in inter-provincial grain transfers. All will be done by companies in each of the respective provinces. The central government will be responsible for disaster relief and stabilizing prices using centrally held stocks. These stocks will be held separate from the provinces and from any commercial enterprise. Local governments will be responsible for local disaster relief and stabilizing local prices. Governors "Rice-Bag" Responsibility System will still be in effect.
The central government will allocate only 3.5 billion yuan for all 31 provinces, which will be mandatorilly matched (at a rate of 1:1.5) by local allocations for running the subnational disaster relief and local price stabilization. This will be called a "grain risk fund." This means a minimum (provinces could spend more) of 8.7 billion will be used at the subnational level for disaster relief and price stabilization.
4 ) Clear separation of old and new grain debts.
Currently, the grain debt reaches 190 billion yuan, of which 130 billion is policy loan (all in default, called "debt overhang") and 60 billion to commercial operations. Goal is to get rid of 130 billion yuan, part is bad debt of grain agencies themselves (they borrowed money, got reimbursed by financial bureau and never paid bank back), part is bad debt of local government (they ordered grain bureau to take loans to procure grain, received the fiscal transfer from financial bureau, and diverted the money to other uses).
Each locality must have a plan by the fall in 1998 to pay back the debt in the coming 10 years or so. After repayment plan is in place, the central government will stop interest and pay back all accumulated debt and will continue to do so if the schedule of repayment is met to pay all interest back. Central government will be not responsible for any new debt incurred in local levels due to mismanagement and grain bureau's commercial loss.
All quotas (after 1998) will still be assessed, but the quota price will always be set according to the market price. Individuals and private companies are prohibited to procure grain from farmers. Commercial arms of grain bureau and grain reserve system are the only ones who will procure grain from farmers. Grain sale prices by grain bureau should be set at a level higher than procurement prices in order to avoid loss in marketing by grain bureau.
Input price and marketing policies
China has liberalized most agricultural input prices and markets, but after one and a half decades of reform, fertilizer, one of the most important agricultural inputs, has not been fully liberalized. The central government issued a series of new measures to control input, especially fertilizer, prices in order to balance supply and demand in the face of persistent input price increases.
Policy makers formulated a fertilizer market retrenchment policy in 1994, but it was weaker than the grain quota procurement policies. The state readjusted the factory price of chemical fertilizer and applied a new fertilizer factory-gate target band to control price inflation below the wholesale level. Another fertilizer market control mechanism was to shift trade to the main state channel. The state council called a national work conference on reform of the distribution system for agricultural inputs in late 1994. The goals of fertilizer market policy were to strengthen macro control and market management, reduce marketing costs, and stabilize fertilizer prices.
In 1995 and early 1996 the government adopted measures including the following: a) implementing the provincial governor's responsibility system for fertilizer pricing and marketing, making provincial governments responsible for satisfying excess agricultural input demand and maintaining stable input prices;
b) controlling fertilizer distribution (the maximum any factory was permitted to sell through non government channels was kept at ten percent); y
c) controlling trade (all imports were licensed and managed by government appointed trade agents). China depends heavily on the international market for fertilizer, importing about one fourth of its requirements. Domestic potassium production is extremely limited; 90-98 percent of the potassium used in China is imported. Trade policy has a substantial impact on the domestic fertilizer price and market.
Estimates of the nominal protection rate (NPR) show that the government's pre-1985 policy promoting domestic production of agricultural inputs forced farmers to buy domestically produced inputs at prices higher than the world market level, as much as double (100%) in the early 1970s (Huang and David, 1995). The difference has generally declined over time because depreciation of the yuan raised import prices to levels approaching domestically produced input prices. Farmers did not receive a significant price subsidy, close to 30 percent, until the early 1990s. When the government lifted retail price controls in 1993, the fertilizer NPR exceeded 20 percent. The input price policy has not compensated for artificially low procurement prices that apply to many food commodities. The World Bank estimates that average nominal protection for agricultural crops was -40 percent in 1993-94. When implicit tariffs on agricultural inputs are considered, the effective rate of protection falls even lower to -43 percent. The evidence suggests that input price policies exacerbated the policy bias against agriculture.
Technology development policies
After the 1960s, China's research institutions increased, from almost none in the 1950s, producing a steady flow of new varieties and other technologies. Chinese farmers used semi-dwarf varieties several years before the release of Green Revolution technology elsewhere. China was the first country to develop and extend use of hybrid rice. Chinese-bred corn, wheat, and sweet potatoes were comparable to the best in the world in the pre-reform era (Stone, 1988).
Table 21. Agricultural research expenditure in China, 1985-96
Source: The State Sciences and Technology Commission. However, fiscal constraint has limited China's ability to invest more on agricultural research and extension since the 1980s (Tables 21 and 22). A nationwide reform in research was launched in mid-1980s. The reform attempted to increase research productivity by shifting funding from institutional support to competitive grants, supporting research useful for economic development, and encouraging applied research institutes to support themselves by selling the technology they produce (Rozelle, et. al. 1996).
Although competitive grant programmes may have increased the efficacy of China's agricultural research system, reliance on commercial revenue to subsidize research and compensate for public funding shortfalls has weakened it. Empirical evidence demonstrates the declining efficacy of China's agricultural research capabilities in the early 1990s (Rozelle et, al. 1996). The Chinese government, taking into account the role of science and technology in raising agricultural productivity and the recent weakening of the research system, established several programmes to stimulate agricultural technology development and facilitate farmers' adoption of new technologies. Both the Ninth Five-Year Plan and the Long Term Plan for 2010 concluded that China will rely heavily on new technology, particularly new crop and livestock varieties, to raise future agricultural production.
Table 22. Agricultural technology extension expenditure in China, 1986-95
Real agricultural extension expenditure (million at 1990 price)
Real agricultural expenditure per staff (yuan at 1990 price)
Agricultural extension intensity (%)
Sources: A desk survey conducted by author in the Ministry of Agriculture, and the Ministry of Finance.
Land tenure policy
China initiated rural economic land reform in 1978. Production teams distributed agricultural land among households depending on family size or in combination with labor, although ownership remained collective. A number of publications highlight the importance of this reform to agricultural production growth in the long term. The effects of equitable distribution of land to farmers on food security and poverty are obvious.
Renewal of the land contract system is a significant shift of agricultural land institutional arrangements. The new land contract introduced in 1994/1995 offered 30- or 50-year term extensions from the expiration of the original contract. Farmers may also transfer land use rights in return for payment, although land remains collectively owned. Policy makers designed use right transfers to encourage farmers to invest in agricultural, especially grain, production by counteracting the effects of unclear land titles and small scale holdings. The policy may also encourage land consolidation and agricultural commercialization. A recent land tenure survey in eight Chinese provinces indicates that efficient land and input use and increased farmer investments resulting from a well defined land use right and tenure system might increase agricultural production. Further investigation is necessary to determine the extent of possible increases.
Foreign exchange and agricultural trade policies
China has become a much more open economy with foreign trade growing at an even more impressive rate than GDP. The value of trade (export and import) relative to GDP rose from 12 percent in 1980, 23 percent in 1985, and up to 36 percent by 1997, a three-fold increase during the reform period. Total value of agricultural trade of China increased from US$11.6 billion in 1980 to US$31.2 billion in 1997, by 1.7 times. However, the share of agricultural trade in the total trade value decreased from 30.4% in 1980 to 10% in 1997 due to higher growth of manufactured goods.
China's open door policy contributed to this rapid growth of external economy and greater reliance on both domestic and international trade to meet consumer demand. Historically, the overvaluation of domestic currency for trade protection purposes has reduced agricultural incentives. Real exchange rates remained constant and even appreciated during the 30 years prior to reforms, but depreciated rapidly after reforms, with the exception of several years following the high domestic price inflation of 1985. From 1978 to 1992, the real exchange rate depreciated more than 400 percent. Economic productivity growth and technological innovation in agriculture, foreign trade, and industry contributed to low inflation and the success of exchange rate adjustments. Within Asia, China is second only to Indonesia in aggressively adjusting exchange rates over the last two decades except in the recent 5 years (real exchange rate has appreciated by about 30 percent from 1992 to 1997). Falling exchange rates increased export competitiveness and contributed to China's phenomenal export growth record (i. e. non-grain food products) and the spectacular national economic performance of the 1980s.
Although China is not a member of the World Trade Organization (WTO), it participated in the UR negotiation on agricultural trade and made commitments to change agricultural trade policy in accordance with multilateral trade rules, and to reduce the tariff level according to UR Agreement on Agriculture. In fact, China has been making great efforts to establish a trade system in conformity with general international trade rules in preparation for joining WTO. This process will certainly promote reforms in China's agricultural trade policy in the future. In addition, China also made commitments at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum to support its long term goal of investment and trade liberalization in a manner consistent with WTO objectives. China also signed the Bogor Declaration of APEC in November 1994 in which APEC set a target of eliminating trade barriers by 2010 for developed member economies and 2020 for developing member economies. At present, the topic of early liberalization of sectors including aquatic products, grain, edible oil has been discussed at APEC. All of these suggest a change of China's agricultural trade policy over the next couple of decades.
In the past, the trade regime in China has changed dramatically from the system of state trading monopolies prevailing until 1978. Prior to reforms, twelve foreign trade corporations (FTCs) handled all imports and exports, including foreign exchange, which were distributed by administrative planners. Reforms have introduced greater competition in international trade and indirect control instruments. The reforms of 1984 decentralized the foreign trade system. The government allowed provinces to establish their own FTCs and permitted provincial branches of national FTCs to act independently. Although firms must obtain approval to trade, this has been given very liberally and there are now approximately 200,000 firms eligible to engage in foreign trade (Martin and Bach, 1998). On the other hand, China's food trade policy featured import/export license and quota system.
Significant reduction in tariff has also occurred in the past decade. China unilaterally reduced its average tariff rates (unweighted) from 47.2 percent in 1991 to 23 percent in 1996, and 17 percent in 1998. At present, the tariff rate on grain, cotton, log timber and other primary agricultural products is very low (2% for log timber, 3% for cotton). The rates for other agricultural and processed products are usually high. After tariff was unilaterally and substantially reduced in April 1996 and October 1997, the average tariff rate for agricultural is about 20.4 percent (down from more than 40 percent in 1995, 32.6 percent in 1996). Further reduction of tariff is planned in the process of China's accession to the WTO.
China began seeking to resume its membership of GATT in 1986. Past studies have already demonstrated that the accession of China to the WTO would accentuate many of the beneficial effects of the Uruguay Round. Specifically, it would boost not only China's trade but also that of many other countries, adding substantially to the world welfare (Anderson, 1997, 1998; Wang, 1997). But despite 18 accession meetings during the Uruguay Round and several meetings since WTO was established, it is still waiting for its membership to be finalized. The major stumbling blocks causing the delay in accession include the following: whether China would be granted developing country status in the WTO; whether China would be a "fair" competitor given the dominance of state-owned manufacturing and trading enterprises still there; what would be the extent and conditions of market access into China; and whether China can deliver on its promise of stricter enforcement of intellectual property rights (Anderson, 1997).
Anti-poverty policy
Both central and local governments are committed to poverty alleviation. In the early 1980s, tremendous progress was made in addressing China's poverty problem. The rural population under poverty line declined from 260 million in 1978 to 89 million in 1984. The poverty incidence (share of the poor in the total population) declined from 32.9 percent to 11.0 percent in the same period (Table 23). Much of the credit for the early reduction in poverty is attributed to the rapid rural economic growth resulting from better incentives and the government's rural reform programme (Huang et. al. 1998).
A number of agencies and line ministries[20] play considerable roles in poverty alleviation. In 1986, the State Council established a task force and executive agency structure applicable to all administrative levels in order to better organize poverty reduction work and institutionalize the anti-poverty program. An inter-ministerial task force called the Leading Group for the Economic Development of Poor Areas (LGEDPA) manages poverty reduction work at the central government level. The Poor Area Development Office, the executive anti-poverty agency, reports to the State Council via the LGEDPA. This institutional structure facilitates policy implementation and strengthens the leadership of the national anti-poverty program.
The first major systematic effort launched by the government to alleviate poverty was in the mid-1980s, anchored by the national Leading Group's poor area investment, credit (run by Agricultural Bank of China, and Agricultural Development Bank), food-for-work programmes (administered by the State Planning Commission, emphasizes infrastructure improvement), and development fund.
Table 23. Rural poverty in China, 1978-96
Sources: Poverty data for 1978-1989 are from World Bank (China: Strategies for Reducing Poverty in the 1990s, 1992; 1990-1996 data are from China Agricultural Development Report, various issues, MOA; Rural population are from SSB, Statistical Yearbook of China. Targeting and reaching the poor were emphasized in the early stages of the anti-poverty programmes the poor area fund uses. But when faced with the new directive issued by the State Council to eliminate poverty by 2000, the lack of confidence in the poverty alleviation approach in effect at that time led to a restructuring of poverty policy. This policy tried to create a "more effective way" to channel investment funds, focusing on developing the local economies of poor areas with integrated agricultural development schemes. This was done by shifting to direct lending to enterprises and economic entities (jingji shiti) beginning in 1990 and ending in 1995 when the policy returned to emphasize household lending.
China's experience clearly follows the typical pattern found in other developing countries. For example, when the subsidized loan programme was begun in the mid-1980s, the government believed that households needed capital (which was not provided by the formal system) to pull themselves out of poverty. Hence, in the first phase of lending, priority was on giving low-interest loans directly to poor households for agricultural-related activities. Because of some repayment problems and impatience in the pace of development, the government switched from its emphasis on household in 1989 when the Leading Group began to encourage "integrated economic development." by focusing their attention on the development of jingji shiti for assisting the poor.
In theory, these jinggi shiti were in a better position to run integrated agricultural and rural development programs. In the early 1990s, over 70 percent of poverty loans were distributed in this way. Economic entities were enterprises (or village committees) engaged in some kind of productive or service activities that helped poor households to escape poverty. At least 50 percent of the "members" or contracting clients of the jingji shiti entities were supposed to be poor. This change arose since government officials believed that most poor farmers could not make good use of subsidised loans on their own because they lacked the necessary technological and management ability and could not achieve economies of scale in operation. Jingji shiti, on the other hand, were managed by persons with more experience and management ability who could organize farmers into groups that could take advantage of scale economies. An important goal of the reform also was to improve the productivity of loans and achieve higher repayment rates.
There was a growing consensus among some of those interested in poverty work that by the mid-1990s, however, subsidized credit directed at jingji shiti for integrated agricultural/rural development had not met any of its goals. Repayment rate on loans did not increase markedly.
The effectiveness of subsidized poverty loans in stimulating local development also became increasingly suspect. Field work frequently uncovered cases in which farmers were forced into collective projects in pursuit of scale economies that they did not want to participate in. In other cases, loans were taken out by jingji shiti managers for projects that were not appropriate for the local economy, projects that often ended in failure and unpaid debts. Loans were often diverted into economic entities that had political and fiscal importance (Park et al. 1996).
But the largest problem of lending to economic entities may have been that there was less effort to direct the funding to poor households. Many of the loans were given to township and village enterprises (TVEs) or county-owned enterprises, which increased the local revenue base for local governments but did not greatly benefit poor households. The failures of the programme in reaching the poor were criticized. At the national work conference on poverty in September 1996, the Chinese government decided to return the lending focus to direct loans to poor households.
The adequacy of financial resources for the poor area fund is the other challenge in China's poverty alleviation. While the total poor area fund in the nominal terms increased over time, the real investment in the poor areas declined in the late 1980s and the early 1990s. For example, annual government subsidized credit in nominal term increased from less than 1 billion yuan to 2.3 billion yuan in 1986 and 8.7 billion by 1997 (Table 24). But measured in the real terms, there had been no growth during 1986-1996. A similar trend was indicated for the poor area development fund. Although the fund for food for work increased rapidly before 1994, it declined in real terms after 1994.
With increasing concentration of the poor in the more remote areas, the changing lending strategy (moving the target from household to jinji shiti), inadequacy of financial resources, and slowing down the growth of rural economy, the progress achieved in the early 1980s has slowed over the past ten years. Rural poverty now stands at about 50 million people, or approximately 6 percent of the rural population.
Eliminating absolute poverty completely for the remaining 50 million people by the end of this century is the target of the government poverty reduction program. The national "Eight Seven Poverty Reduction Program" (eight for 80 million poor, seven for the 7 years to the year 2000) was initiated in 1994. Its main features are the following: a) to achieve sufficient food, clothing, shelter and income for the poor through stimulation of income growth in the poor area, targeting the poor county and poor household, and strengthening agricultural production;
b) to strengthen the infrastructure in the poor areas; y
c) to improve educational, cultural and sanitary conditions.
Table 24. Investment in the poor area (100 million yuan), 1986-97
Note: Real value is at 1985 price. Sources: Huang, Ma and Rozelle, 1998. To achieve the above, the programme called for increased funding for the poor areas, particularly for 592 national designated poor counties. However, Table 24 shows that raising funds for the poor area has not been realized since 1994. Indeed, the real investment (at 1985 price) in the poor area has declined from 4.8 billion in 1993 to only about 3.2 billion in 1996. Although the investment in the poor area surged in 1997, it was still lower than the level obtained in the first year (1994) of "Eight Seven Poverty Reduction Program" (Table 24).
Rural enterprise development policy
Chinese TVEs expanded at a rapid rate following the reforms of 1979. The number of TVEs increased from about 1.5 million in 1978 to more than 23 million by 1996 (Appendix Tables 1 and 2) and now play an important role in China's rural economy. The gross output value of TVEs in real terms increased at an annual rate of 23.5 percent between 1978 and 1995. By 1996, rural TVEs accounted for about three-quarters of rural gross output values and about 40 percent of China's export earnings (SSB, 1996).
The development of TVEs in rural areas has maintained momentum by absorbing surplus rural labor. The sector employed 135.1 million rural laborers in 1996, 4.8 times more than in 1978, an increase of more than 6 million annually (Tables 25 and 26). Aside from absorbing the labor surplus, TVE development increases farmers' incomes, promotes rural urbanization and market development, and stimulates structural changes in the rural economy.
Table 25. Employment (million) in TVEs by sector in rural China, 1978-96
Commerce & food service
Note: figures for 1978 and 1980 include only those enterprises run by township and village, while figures for other years include all enterprises in the rural area except for the data for 1995-96 which do not account for "extremely small enterprises" defined by State Township and Village Enterprises Administrative Bureau.
Source: Statistical Yearbook of China, various issues. Policy played an important role in setting up and encouraging TVE development in China. Rural industry in the early 1950s was primarily staffed by farmers with part-time jobs in commercial handicraft industries. Many of these workshops were quite small because their technology or work organization offered no economies of scale. Commune era (1958-78) reforms organized workshops and individual handicraft workers into a large number of communes, brigades, and team enterprises. Local governments and other entities arranged many profitable business deals during this period. These included the production of building materials and some farm inputs, subcontracting of various sorts from urban industry, and some simple agricultural output processing.
The post 1979 economic reforms drastically altered the operation of the commune-run enterprise system. State-owned enterprise (SOE) monopoly and monopsony powers deteriorated as urban economic opportunities became more accessible to TVEs. With central government recognition of individual and private enterprises in 1984, employment in cooperative and private enterprises expanded by 34.2 million between 1984 and 1990 (Table 26). Below village TVE's employment growth, at an average annual rate of 25 percent, accounted for 85 percent of total TVE employment growth between 1984 and 1990.
TVE development is characterized by labor-intensive industry and flexibility to respond to changing market conditions. TVEs have responded to China's growing demand for a greater variety of consumer products by employing surplus labor in rural areas. TVE development is closely linked to the growth of urban industry, especially in the early stages of development. TVEs subcontract production from large urban industries, hire retired urban technicians (either directly or indirectly) and purchase retired equipment. Asset transfers from urban industry, including retired equipment, accounted for 35 to 45 percent of new TVE assets between 1978 and 1984.
Table 26. Employment (thousand) of TVEs by ownership in rural China, 1978-96
Source: Statistical Yearbook of China, various issues; Agricultural Yearbook of China, various issues; China's TVEs Yearbook, various issues. Strong growth of TVEs by private sector since 1980s provided a dynamic source of growth in the rural economy. By 1996, the private and cooperative TVEs employed 75.6 million rural labourers, and accounted for 56 percent of the total TVEs' employment.
China's food economy prospects
Issues and debates
China's ability to feed itself in the 21st century has been widely discussed and is a subject of much concern and study among researchers of China's agricultural economy. The preponderance of serious evidence indicates that China will be able to feed itself, although grain imports will probably rise over the next several decades. Yang and Tyers (1989) forecast that China would import roughly 50 mmt annually in the late 1990s. Rozelle et. Alabama. (1996) and Huang and Rozelle (1997) predict that China will need to import 30-40 mmt annually to meet domestic demand for the first two decades of the twenty first century. Most international food trade and production specialists believe that current suppliers can meet China's rising import demands without long-term price increases or threats to world food security.
Some researchers foresee impending disaster. Garnaut and Ma (1992) forecast that China will face up to a 90 mmt grain shortage in 2000. Brown (1995) argues that China's production will fall between 216 and 378 mmt short of demand, forcing the nation to use foreign exchange earnings from the booming export sector to import enough grain to fill the gap. He predicts that China's imports will drain world grain supplies, force prices up, and deny poorer nations the grain necessary to feed their population.
Such a wide range of net import predictions is perplexing. China's emergence as either a major importer or a major exporter could have enormous consequences for world grain markets and prices. China is experiencing rapid development and transformation. Continual reforms and the dynamic nature of China's economy require that researchers update predictions frequently.
This section reports projection results which incorporate recent government policies based on a projection model developed at the Centre for Chinese Agricultural Policy (CCAP) in cooperation with FAO's Policy Assistance Branch, Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific. CCAP's Agricultural Policy Simulation and Projection Model (CAPSiM) is a partial equilibrium multi-market model. It is the first most comprehensive model for China's food demand, supply and trade analysis. Most of the elasticities are estimated econometrically with imposition of theoretically consistent constraints. In the projection or policy simulation, prices can be determined endogenously or exogenously. CAPSiM explicitly accounts for urbanization and market development (demand side), technology, agricultural investment, environmental trends and competition for labor and land use (supply side), as well as the price responses of both demand and supply.
The projection considers the recent policy trends discussed in the last section in addition to other factors that will influence future supply of and demand for food. These trends are the basis for growth assumptions of key simulation parameters. Decline of returns to agricultural research and irrigation investment is assumed in the model. Appendix Tables 3-7 summarize the demand and supply elasticities used in CAPSiM model. Key assumptions on macro economic variables and major exogenous variables are presented in the Appendix Table 8.
Food requirements: baseline projection results
The analysis concludes that China's per capita food grain consumption peaked in the late 1990s (Table 27). The average rural resident will increase consumption until the year 2008 and then reduce demand thereafter. Declining demand in rural areas takes place when income elasticities, although lower than the late 1990s, are still positive. As markets develop, rural consumers will have more choices, and move away from food grains. Urban food grain consumption declines over the entire projection period.
Per capita demand for red meat is forecast to rise sharply throughout the projection period (Table 27). China's consumers will double consumption of meat by 2020, from 17 to 32 kg per capita for pork, from 2 to 4 kg for beef, and 1.2 to 2.9 kg for mutton. Although rural demand growth lags behind the growth of urban demand, urbanization will shift people from rural into high-consumption urban areas. In 1996, an average urban resident consumed about 60 percent more red meat than rural counterparts. Per capita demand for poultry and fish, although initially lower, will rise proportionally faster than red meat demand.
The projected demand increase for poultry, fish, and other animal products will place a pressure on aggregate feed grain demand (Table 28). The baseline scenario predicts that demand for feed grain will increase to 138 mmt by 2000 and climb to 239 mmt by 2020 (all figures measured in trade grain, rice in milled form, not unprocessed grain). Feed grain as a proportion of total grain utilisation will grow from 27 percent in the mid-1990 to about 41 percent in 2020.
Table 27. Projected annual per capita food consumption under baseline scenario, China, 1996-2020.
Availability of grain supply: results of baseline projections
Baseline projections predict that China's grain production will gradually fall behind increasing demand. Aggregate grain supply will reach 483 mmt (in trade weight) by the year 2005, an output increase of only 8 percent over 1996.
Production is expected to increase with greater rapidity in the second decade of the forecast period. The resumption of investment in agricultural research during the forecast period will lead to faster growth rates. Aggregate grain production is expected to reach 516 mmt in 2010, an increase of 13 percent over the preceding decade, and 571 mmt by 2020, an 11 percent increase over the 2010 level.
The projections indicate rising grain deficits as the annual growth rate of production falls behind demand. Imports will surge to 21 mmt in 2005 and peak at 33 mmt in 2020 (Table 28).
Alternative scenarios
A number of alternate scenarios were run by altering baseline growth rates of key variables including income, population, and investment in technology to test the sensitivity of results to changes in underlying assumptions. Results indicate that low population growth rates would reduce grain demand, compared to baseline estimates, by 5 mmt, 12 mmt, and 25 mmt in 2000, 2010, and 2020, respectively, and reduce total grain imports to 8 mmt by 2020. If population growth is higher than expected, annual imports are expected to increase to about 15-25 mmt in 2010- 2020. Low income growth reduces projected grain demand from 605 mmt to 560 mmt in 2020. If income grows more rapidly than expected, imports will rise significantly.
Altering assumptions of investment in agricultural research has the greatest impact on production and trade balances. The result is hardly surprising given the large contribution that agricultural research, and the technology it has produced, have made to agricultural productivity in recent years. A one percent increase in the rate of growth of agricultural research (and irrigation) investment from a baseline level of 4 percent (and 3.5 percent) is projected to shift China from an import to an export position by 2020. If, instead, investment falls by one percent, the 2020 production would fall and imports would rise to more than 60 mmt.
Such a high level of grain imports depends on a continuing decline in the growth of agricultural investment (deceleration) and a lack of government response to rising import levels. Agricultural research and irrigation investments have recovered in recent 2 years. Government policy makers have responded to rising grain prices caused by short term tightening of supplies with promises of greater investments in agriculture. The government may choose to look to international researchers for technical products, allowing China time to redevelop its own agricultural research system. China plans a technological transfer programme to introduce advanced agricultural technologies from abroad. Such measures will reduce the expected decline of grain production growth rates and decrease the expected level of grain imports, even if public investment decelerates.
Production, demand, and imports are insensitive to small changes in price trends. Output prices do affect China's grain balance, but the effects are minimal. For every 0.5 percent increase (decline) in the annual projected grain price, imports fall (rise) by 2- 3 mmt. Fertilizer price shifts have similarly small effects; by increasing (decreasing) the projected growth of fertilizer prices by one percent, imports increase (decrease) by 4 mmt. If fertilizer prices are higher than grain output prices, the low output to input price ratio will lead to increased imports to meet the nation's projected deficit. In the medium and short-run high imports would force prices up, offsetting part of the deterioration of the output input price ratio.
Finally, assuming a constant production response to erosion and salinity as environmental degradation increases has little impact on output predictions. Slight increases in erosion and salinity trends (e. g. a growth rate shift from 0.2 percent to 0.4 percent) do not significantly reduce productivity (production would only drop 7 mmt by 2020). Acceleration of erosion and salinity rates would not have substantial impacts until they increase to at least five times current levels, a one percent per year increase in erosion and salinity. Even at such high levels of environmental stress, projected grain imports would only increase to 65 mmt.
Summary
Food self-sufficiency has been and will continue to be one of the central goals of China's agricultural policy. CAPSIM projection model, which incorporates likely future policies and economic development, estimates that, under the most plausible assumptions, China's imports will rise steadily through the next decade. By 2005, imports are expected to reach 21 mmt, stimulated by growing demand for meat and feed grains. Grain imports are predicted to reach 33 mmt in 2020. The on-going recovery of investment in agricultural research and irrigation should sustain supply growth.
Variance of both short and long-term assumptions produces a considerable range of projections. As expected, changing rates of agricultural investment and income growth causes some of the largest shifts of expected imports. Although a few scenarios project high levels of imports, the true risk is smaller than the model suggests, because certain factors may prevent China from overwhelming the world market once adjustments are taken into account.
First, world grain prices would certainly rise in response to large Chinese imports, which in turn would dampen Chinese grain demand and stimulate domestic supply.
Second, foreign exchange constraints may limit large volume grain imports, and exchange rate movements would discourage imports.
Third, the limitations of China's ports and other transportation and marketing infrastructure might also constrain imports.
Finally, national defense, pride, and ideology will combine to force a premium on maintaining a rough balance between domestic demand and supply.
Issues and challenges
China will neither empty the world grain markets nor become a major grain exporter if government policies remain favourable (see projection results). Instead, China's importance as a world grain importer will grow over the next thirty years, but not to overwhelming proportions. Estimates of net annual grain imports range from 20 to 35 mmt or 4-6 percent of domestic grain demand, a level the Chinese government will likely find palatable.
Estimates of China's net grain imports shift under various scenarios. Relaxing any major policy assumptions or changing factors considered explicitly, such as competition for agricultural water use, the trade-off between importing feed grain and meat, protection of domestic grain production prompted by rising domestic prices, declining returns to investment in agricultural research, the impact of grain and fertilizer market reform on grain production, etc. will have a significant impact on China's predicted food supply and demand. Ensuring the availability of food is only one part of ensuring national food supply. China may face formidable challenges from its growing population (an annual increase of nearly 14 million in the 1990s), inefficient use of limited agricultural resources, technical constraints on food production, and complications in formulating food and agricultural policies that encourage agricultural production and achieve a higher level of national food security.
Resource constraints
Decline of limited agricultural land area
China is an extremely land scarce nation. Total cultivated land in the early 1990s amounted to about 95 million ha. Total cultivated land has been less than 0.1 ha per capita since the 1980s (declining from 0.13 in 1970 to 0.08 in 1996). Although official data may underestimate land area by as much as 30 percent (Crook, 1994), this does not suggest that China's estimated grain yields are low or that China can reduce future grain deficits or become a grain exporter by "realizing" the underestimation of cultivated land. Potential grain yield on "unreported land" is very limited. Recent household surveys conducted in Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Fujian and Yunan provinces in late 1996 and early 1997 indicate that unreported lands are most often marginal, fragile, "corner", or newly reclaimed land and are usually "private plots" planted with vegetables and other minor crops for home consumption. Rural household crop food consumption (i. e. vegetable) may be underestimated if consumption data is based on national production and food balance sheet figures.
Pressure on agricultural land area will increase as competition for land from non-agricultural uses grow, environmental degradation increases, and irrigation water supplies decline. China uses land resources efficiently, and potential for land reclamation or expansion of the land base is modest.
Water shortages in the agricultural sector
The water shortage in China, particularly in the North China Plain and in the Northwest, has become more acute over the last decade and continues to worsen. Rising demand for urban and industrial water poses a serious threat to irrigated agriculture because the marginal benefits of water are generally believed higher in non-agricultural uses. Unless the government specifically allocates water to agriculture, much will go to other sectors. Government technical and engineering projects, most of which started before 1980, have attempted to improve agricultural irrigation. The cost of new irrigation investment has risen rapidly since 1980. Existing irrigation systems perform badly. Many water projects have deteriorated due to waterlogging, salinization, and mining of ground water aquifers. Agricultural productivity growth in irrigated areas has slowed.
Shifting labor to the non-agricultural sector
As rural non-agricultural sectors (industry and services) grow, they create non-cropping and off-farm jobs that lead to large shifts in labor use patterns. Labor use for all crops fell substantially from 1975 to 1994 after steady increases, especially for grain production, from the early 1950s until the 1970s. Rice farmers today use less than half of the labor they used in the pre-reform era (Table 29). Wheat and soybean labor usage has followed suit. Most laborers who remain in the agricultural sector are either elderly or unskilled farmers.
Technical constraints
Research and technology
Although research and technology have played critical roles in the growth of food production in the past, falling public budgetary commitments weaken the research system. Public agricultural research expenditure has presented a declining trend since the 1980s (Table 21). China's agricultural research investment intensity is one of the lowest in the world (Huang and Hu, 1998), though the country's grain yields are among the highest in the world. Further research is required to sustain productivity gains. A recently initiated national seed programme hopes to maintain stable crop yields and agricultural production increases, but a number of issues must be resolved in order for the programme to succeed. These include barriers to entry, allowing markets to set prices, phasing out of subsidies and protecting intellectual property rights.
Table 29. Labour inputs (days/ha) in agricultural production in China, 1975-95.
Sources: SPB (1988-96). Public agricultural technology extension investment intensity presented a similar trend as that for agricultural research. Agricultural extension investment intensity peaked in 1987 (0.33%), then declined to 0.23% in 1995 (Table 22). Agricultural extension expenditure (at 1990 prices) per extension worker declined from about 4500 yuan in 1986 to only about 3000 yuan in the mid-1990s. A recent CCAP study concluded that more than half of village level extension stations had disappeared or existed by name only in the past 10 years. Extension workers spent only 76 percent of their time on extension work in 1996, about 10 percent less than 10 years ago. Nearly 20 percent of extension workers are considering moving to other organizations or private sectors. Regression analyses show that the most significant factors affecting extension worker's effort (i. e. time allocated to extension work and frequency of visiting farmers) are extension expenditure and wage.
China's limited grain handling and internal transportation will continue to limit food supply stability in the future. Rail transport, the primary mode of freight movement, is efficient but insufficient to meet transport needs. Shipping grain (i. e. maize) from northeastern to southern China is more expensive than importing it into the south from abroad. The volume of grain stored in deficit areas is greater than would be necessary under improved transport conditions. Short term food production fluctuations in local areas often cause price fluctuations. Farmers may have difficulty selling their produce (in case of a good harvest as in 1996-97) which hurts farmer's production incentives.
Food and agriculture policies
Policies are recognized as an important part of ensuring food supplies, stabilizing the food market, and broadening access to food for the poor. However, there are constraints and challenges in dealing with food production and food security in future.
Land tenure system
China should continue to reform its land contract system. Recent land tenure modifications may not have had much short-term impact on agricultural production and land investment because the institutional and legal framework that the market requires to work efficiently have not been established. The current legal framework for land and other factor and product markets is not well suited to the rapidly expanding increasingly market-based economy.
The historically vital task of managing water is still important today. The individual household responsibility system initiated in the late 1970s made agricultural production more efficient and accelerated production growth, but has also created a number of water management problems. The breakdown of the commune system led to a decay of water management system. Current water management is commonly believed to be one of the major reasons for increasing water shortage problems, but, to date, it has been largely ignored by reformers.
The irrigation systems show signs of structural deterioration and declining productivity resulting from poor management, unclear water property rights, and inadequate maintenance. Unsuitable operation has damaged the irrigation system. Water use conflicts have expanded beyond agriculture, occurring not only among farmers within the same irrigation district, but also between government departments which fight over the right to manage water, in particular the right to collect water fees and give water withdrawal permits (Cao, 1992).
Reforms have accelerated agricultural growth since the late 1970s, but the new institutional arrangements do not provide adequate incentives for both public and private investment in agricultural infrastructure, research, and extension. The decline in agricultural research investment in the late 1980s weakened the base of future productivity gains, at least over the medium term. During the rural reform period, the government faced the challenge of improving the education and technological capabilities of millions of farmers. Given the importance of technology to agricultural production, policy makers should ensure strengthening research, education, and extension receive high priority. The government has initiated several programs, including the Harvest Plan, but all are constrained by increasingly short funds.
Food price and marketing
After nearly two decades of reform, the grain bureau still requires farmers to deliver specified quantities of grain. The Provincial Governor's Grain Responsibility System (Rice Bag) policy initiative made provincial governors responsible for balancing provincial grain supply and demand, with focused concern on urban residents. The responsibility has been transferred to lower jurisdictions and appears to create inefficient resource allocation.
The grain market reform initiated in 1998 has led to a wide debate among economists and policy analysts on the ability of the new grain marketing system in stabilizing domestic grain market and in improving grain market competition. While it is too early to evaluate the impact of these new grain market reforms on grain production, price and marketing, several key issues have been raised by researchers.
Will central stocks be enough and run right to stabilize prices for once - now that prices are more unstable than world prices?
Will central government expect provinces to help with buffer stock price stabilization activities?
Will the provinces hold stocks for price stabilization?
Will reforms make the commercialized grain bureaus more or less competitive?
Could heavy debt overhang, lingering policy burdens, retirement obligations, and other duties keep them from being competitive?
Will government be far sighted enough to get price stabilization schemes in place and coordinate them with imports and exports to ensure that food security and price stability goals are met?
Is there any more efficient way to run the reserve and import system without changing the national objective?
Is it possible for the central government to "tax" or solicit mandatory contributions from each province to run a central buffer stock operation with the goal to stabilize prices?
Input price and marketing
Although food prices stabilized in 1996-1997, the prices of agricultural inputs have continued to increase at a rate higher than overall price inflation. Chemical fertilizer drives agricultural input price increases. Reformers took this as an indicator of the failure of the fertilizer liberalization policy, and so initiated the fertilizer market retrenchment policy in 1994.
There is little evidence to indicate that fertilizer market retrenchment policy has had the desired effect. Fertilizer prices continue to rise at a remarkable rate. The retail price of urea reached 1600 yuan per ton in most parts of China in 1994 and more than 2200 yuan per ton in 1996, compared to the 1400 yuan per ton "ceiling price" set by the government. The situation raises several questions: Is recent fertilizer price inflation related to private sector participation in the fertilizer market, state monopoly market and trade policies, manipulations of private traders, or supply deficits due to domestic production and trade policies?
External trade policy has cycled through periods of liberalization and retrenchment. In 1992, the government delegated partial responsibility for international grain import/export transactions to provincial authorities. Concurrently, the government reemphasized licensing and control measures for major food commodities (grain).
Other important issues include the costs and benefits of importing feed grain and livestock, trade management system reform, and coordination of production, domestic trade and international trade. As consumption of livestock products increases, it becomes more important to know whether importing livestock products is more efficient than growing or importing feed grain to produce livestock domestically. Lack of coordination causes conflicts between domestic and international trade, production and marketing arrangements, and input and output policies.
Since the late 1970s China's poverty alleviation policies have been largely successful. Further reduction of poverty has proven difficult due to wide dispersion of poor populations in remote upland areas, fiscal constraints in raising fund for the poor area investment, and the increasing income gap between poor areas and the developed coast. Rapid poverty reduction through rural and agricultural growth was largely exhausted by the end of 1984. The annual reduction in the poverty population declined from 28.5 million in 1978-84 to 2.58 million since 1985 (Table 23). The population in absolute poverty dropped by only about 31 million after 1985, leaving 58 million in poverty in rural areas in 1996, and accounting for 6.7 percent of the rural population. Most of the remaining poor are trapped in remote upland areas, implying that the marginal cost of poverty reduction is rising. Resources for the poor area fund need to be reviewed and increased.
On the other hand, investment priorities should be reviewed and evaluated. There is growing concern for investment portfolios in the poor area, efficient resource allocations, and targeting the poor. If the goal is to increase productive use of labor and hence the income of the poor, the most abundant asset in the poor areas, the most important asset to invest in is labor itself (through education and health). The importance of education in the poor areas is shown in Appendix Table 9. The quality and quantity of human capital must be built up. In addition, the productivity of factors which are complements of labor (i. e. infrastructure, land, and technology) must be improved or expanded.
Concluding Remarks
China, the world's most populous country, is highly recognised for its ability to feed over 20 percent of the world population with only about seven percent of the world's arable land. Despite extremely limited natural resources and a population that has doubled over the last four decades, per capita daily availability of food, the status of household food security, and nutrition have all improved significantly. Increased domestic production is almost solely responsible for increased per capita food availability. The growth of agricultural production since 1950, particularly after 1970, is one of the main accomplishments of China's development and national food security policies. China's experience demonstrates the importance of technology changes, institutional reform, incentives, rural development, and sector specific policies to ensure the adequacy of food supply through domestic production.
China's research system has produced a steady flow of new crop varieties and other technologies since the 1950s. The robust growth of China's stock of research is in large part responsible for its dramatic agricultural growth rates. Improved technology has been the largest factor, by far, behind grain production growth, and as such is a major source of increased food availability in China. Institutional reform and alteration of farmers' incentives have also brought significant agricultural production growth. Irrigation is another important determinant of China's agricultural growth in recent decades.
China's experience demonstrates that strong rural economic growth is a key element of absolute poverty reduction. Broad participation in rural economic growth reduced absolute poverty between 1978 and 1985. The country has successfully created jobs, both farming and non-farming (particularly in rural industry), for rural surplus labor since the early 1980s. Diversification of production and development of rural enterprises (TVEs) raised farmers' incomes and improved rural living standards.
Policies, including the grain reserve system, strong disaster relief programs, and large scale food-for-work schemes, have contributed substantially to the stability of China's food supply and access to food for the poor. China's experience also demonstrates the importance of relations between economic growth, political and social stability, and food security in a large country whose economy is undergoing fundamental adjustment and growing rapidly. Maintaining a relatively high level of food self-sufficiency is desirable in terms of both domestic and global food security.
Food self-sufficiency has been and will continue to be the central goal of China's agricultural policy. The Ninth Five Year Plan for 1996-2000 and the National Long Term Economic Plan both call for continued agricultural production growth, rising rural income, continued high levels of food security, and the elimination of absolute poverty. The strategies to achieve the above targets include:
improving incentives for both public and private investments to enhance agricultural productivity (investments in land, irrigation, research, crop extension, etc.);
increasing farmers' income through the promotion of rural industrial development and off-farm employment;
strengthening anti-poverty programmes by raising poverty alleviation funds; y
emphasizing economic as well as infrastructure development, and developing the state grain reserve system as a major government intervention to stabilize food supply and market prices.
The projection results, which incorporate recent policies and economic trends, show that China will neither drain the world grain markets nor become a major grain exporter. Instead, China's importance as a world grain importer will increase over the coming decades. China's growing grain imports will benefit grain exporting nations in the short run, especially those selling wheat and maize. Net grain imports over the next 3 decades are likely to be between 20 and 35 mmt annually. Accelerating demand for meat and food grains and slow agricultural growth due to reduced investment are the major reasons for increased food import projections. China's grain economy is increasingly animal feed oriented.
China may face great challenges in feeding its growing population and maintaining high level food security in the coming decades if future policies do not further these goals. It will need to import 70-80 million tons in the worst case scenario. Other scenarios are less dramatic. China has the capacity to feed its people; whether it is able to do so is a matter of economics and the government's willingness to invest. There is reason for optimism, but there is also reason to worry.
Areas of growing concern include efficient use of limited agricultural resources, overcoming the technical constraints to increased food production, and complications in formulating food and agriculture policies that will increase domestic agricultural production and national food security.
China is land-scarce and is short of water. Competition for land and water from non-agricultural uses, further environmental degradation, and declining efficiency as a result of poor land and water management can only worsen land and water supply problems. Increased opportunities in the non-cropping and off-farm sectors have prompted agricultural laborers to move to the non-agricultural sector. Policy makers have not yet addressed key issues including the unbalanced use of fertilizer, the inefficiency of the state monopoly in fertilizer market and distribution system, and (to some extent) fertilizer import policy.
The recent decline of the government's budgetary commitment to research has weakened the system. The agricultural technology extension system needs to be strengthened. Development of an efficient seed industry is not without roadblocks as appropriate supporting institutions (i. e. eliminating entry barriers, allowing the market to set prices, phasing out subsidies, and protecting intellectual property rights) take time to mature. The signs of poor land/water management and unclear land/water property rights have started to show in the form of structural deterioration and declining productivity. A better incentive system is needed to encourage both public and private investment in agriculture. Limited grain handling and internal transport capacity will be one of the predominating constraints shaping China's economy.
After nearly two decades of reform, the grain bureau still requires farmers to deliver specified quantities of grain. While it is too early to evaluate the impacts of 1998 new grain market reforms on grain production, price and marketing, issues related to the ability and willingness of local government to hold sufficient buffer stock for price stabilization need to be addressed. China has taken great steps to alleviate poverty since the late 1970s. Further poverty reduction has proven difficult because the remaining population in absolute poverty is widely dispersed in remote upland areas. Although nutrition has improved over the last two decades, malnutrition remains.
In sum, China is generally capable of solving its food problems. The government may play a substantial role in improving both national and global food security. Full knowledge of present policies and their impacts on food production, stability of supply, trade, and household food security are essential to design appropriate policy measures and the institutional framework to improve food security. China's agricultural polices and their economic impact are of interest also to the rest of the world as the country is integrated into the world market.
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[19] Nutrient availability is based on a food balance sheet which may underestimate grain for feed use, so figures in Table 1 are larger than those in the following figures based on a food nutrition intake survey [20] These include the State Education Commission, the State Science and Technology Commission, the Agricultural Bank of China, the Peoples Bank of China, and the Ministries of Civil Affairs, Finance, Agriculture, Labor, Domestic Trade, Water Resources, and Public Health
Marketing report about the research of shopping centers of Kyiv
20.08.2007 Socmart Company has carried out a marketing research in which 32 functional and 36 under construction shopping centers have been studied.
In spite of the fact that Ukraine cannot be referred to the countries which are stable in their development because of political situation in the country, it is one of the most interesting countries for investing in Eastern Europe anyway. Economics spheres show indicators of growth, residential and commercial real estate is developing, including trading. In 2006 retail goods turnover of Kyiv enterprises occupied 19,2 % in goods turnover of Ukrainian enterprises. Retail goods turnover of the city enterprises has made more than 23,7 billion hryvnias in 2006, that almost 51 % exceeds the indicator of 2005. 8,7 thousand hryvnias of official retail turnover fell per one resident of Kyiv in 2006.
In the first half of 2007 the volume of operations with the commercial real estate in Ukraine made about $293,75 million. Lion's share of this sum of $231,25 million belongs to business real estate, the rest belongs to trading real estate. For comparison, according to the data of specialized consulting agency Jones LangLaSalle, during last year the volume of operations with real estate made $497,2 million, and in 2005 it has made only $22 million. More than 90 % of transactions were concluded in the capital of the country, in Kyiv.
The structure of trading real estate of Kyiv. The market of trading real estate of Kiev is presented by such formats as shopping centers, hypermarkets (and supermarkets), street retail. Now in Kyiv and its suburb 32 professional ShC function (ShC Komod, ShC Bil’shovyk, Ukraine Department store, Caravan, Kvadrat in Lukyanivka, Kvadrat in Borshchagivka, Ultramarine, Gorodok, Promenade Center, Interval Plaza, Children's paradise ( Детский мир ), Global UA, Metropolis, Makros, Pyramid, Aladdin, Alta Center, VMB, Plasma, Navigator in Druzhby narodiv, Metrograd, Globe. Line 1, Globe. Line 2, Globe. Line 3, Magellan, Arena City, Mandaryn Plaza, Central Department Store, Olympiys’kyy, Europort, Rhythm, Terminal), the total area of which is more than 556 thousand square meters. One can refer to small such shopping centers as Navigator in Shuliavka, Navigator in Glory square, Samson, Sirius, Clothes House. To large hypermarkets and supermarkets one can refer both hypermarkets and supermarkets of foreign trading networks presented in Kiev by Metro, Billa, and those of Ukrainian operators, namely Epicenter, Velyka Kyshenia, Fozzi groop, Furshet. The main street-retails in Kyiv are Khreshchatyk street. Chervonoarmiys’ka street. Shevchenko parkway, Chervonych Kozakiv avenue.
The offer of shopping centers market. At present distribution of shopping centers in Kyiv both according to quantity, and according to areas, is not uniform. On the right bank of Kyiv there are much more shopping centers (81,3 %, 26 ShC), than on the left bank.
By 2010 there will be more than 68 professional shopping centers in Kyiv, or more than 1421 thousand m2 of trading areas. Boom because of putting into operation of shopping centers is expected in 2008 - more than 340000 м 2. ( Mega City. Dniprovs’ka Pryctan’, Multiplex Plaza. Kvadrat Avrora, etc.)
Rent rates. Due to great demand for trading areas, rent rates increase in a geometrical progression. An average occupancy rate of shopping centers in the capital is 98 %. In Kyiv it is possible to allocate two places of concentration of trading complexes - Petrivka and the city center. In the central successful shopping centers RR has come near to 200 dollars per meter. The same is cost of a square meter per a month in the successful suburban shopping centers (Magellan, Caravan). In the less successful ShC rent rates are much lower (50 dollars in suburban ShC, 100-150 dollars in the central ShC). In one of the most successful ShC they even practice an interesting thing, as Socmart company has learnt, as soon as a free area appears (what happens extremely seldom), between potential tenants, who have beforehand filled the questionnaire of a tenant, a tender by principle of auctions starts, where the minimum rate per meter is 157 dollars.
The s tructure of areas in shopping centers according to types of goods. Clothes and footwear groups are represented in the Kyiv shopping centers more than other (more than 40% by quantity of outlets), house wear goods and goods for entertainment follow after.
Basic tendencies of the trading real estate market of Kyiv:
1. Investments into the trading real estate of Kyiv. European indicators of profitableness and terms of return of investments stabilized long ago, since the market of shopping centers in the majority of the developed European countries is already filled. It is possible to speak about 5-7 % of profitableness for rent of shopping centers areas in the countries of Central Europe. A recoupment period fluctuates within 10-15 years. In the best shopping centers of Moscow average monthly rent payment for square meter makes from $140 to $180 (data of Cushman&WakefieldStiles&Riabokobylko). Profitableness of Moscow shopping centers is 10-12 %. The rate of profitableness of objects of the trading real estate of Kyiv is about 10 %. Further Ukraine will approach indicators of Near-Eastern Europe. A recoupment period of shopping centers of Ukraine makes 5-7 years. It attracts foreign investors, who are ready to buy either an already finished shopping centre, or a site for building. For example, Irish Quinn Group has bought two objects of the trading real estate in Kyiv, reconstructed Ukraine Department Store and Alta Center. for the last half of the year. And Vietnamese company N and K has bought four sites for building of shopping centers in Kyiv. On one of them in Syvashs’ka street reconstruction of an old building into a new shopping-business complex of more than 20000 square meters area is proceeding at full speed. But not all foreign companies manage to buy ground and obtain a construction permit. For example, Swedish company IKEA, which since 2005 has tried to receive a land allotment for building of MEGA complex of more than 200000 square meters (in Darnyts’kyy district of Kyiv), can not manage to do it till now. However, problems with land allotments and permissions are not happening only to foreigners, it is enough to recollect some trading complexes such as Trojits’kyy (former Olimpic Plaza ) and Lybid’ Plaza, where Ukrainian companies act as developers. Moreover, Lithuanian Hanner company, which owned a joint interest on Trojits’kyy together with Neruchomist’ stolytsi company, has sold its shares, probably, they do not want to deal with the scandalous project more. Besides IKEA other foreign retail-operators have numerous plans in Ukraine. for example, French Aushan wants to construct some complexes in Kiev. the first of them is the shopping center in Moscows’kyy prospect.
2. Ukrainian developers, having expanded a field of commercial objects, do not forget about the trading real estate. Major investment-developer companies have several trading projects in their portfolio. For example, 21th century Company is going to construct 5 Kvadrat shopping centers in Kyiv till 2010 (but real construction is being proceeding only in Perova street. and something similar to building is beginning in Balzac Street ). Also 21th century Company has begun expansion into regions. In plans of another major investment-developer company NEST (Neruchomist’ stolytsi) is to complete Trojits’kyy (though with erection of this complex problems constantly arise), to begin building of a multipurpose complex in Zolotoustivs’kyy. Consulting-developer companies also are building many projects around Kyiv now. The Ukrainian merchant guild develops concepts of new shopping centers in the crossing of Cimji Sosninych Street and 50-littia Zhovtnia Street, in the Circular Road (near Billa supermarket), in Sviatoshyns’ka Street. Concorde Development has developed the concept of a large shopping mall in Sribnokil’s’ka Street, the project has recently been agreed on town-planning council of the capital. Under the concept of Real Estate Solutions the shopping mall Materyk is now being completed in Borshchagivs’ka street. Colliers International acted as a consultant at creation of the project Kvadrat Aurora (in Perova street ).
3. Building of many shopping malls, commissioning of which have been planned for this year, has not even been started yet.
Some years building of Oasis shopping complex in 1a Trostianets’ka street. and, accordingly, its delivery in operation are being postponed. Total area is 28 500 square meters. The four level shopping center with a food supermarket (3000 square meters), large-size perfumeries, audio and video equipment shops, a chemist's supermarket, a dry-cleaner, a clothes shop, a supermarket of sport goods, a clothes department store, large-size footwear shops, a children's supermarket. With a multiplex, a disco, food-courts (4 operators), a fitness and health zone, a children's entertaining center, an internet club. And a car park for 385 cars. First the object was planned to be put into operation in 2005. Moreover, new information has appeared that Billa supermarket has received a land allotment by this address.
The building of underground shopping center Univer City in Volodymyrs’ka street near the Taras Shevchenko University have not been started yet also. According to the plan there have be a shopping mall which will be presented as the city cult youth centre with three main functions: trading, entertaining and function of provision of services for population. The shopping centre structure has to include a large book supermarket with the area of 400 square meters, a supermarket of stationery, a modern shop of computer technologies and mobile communication, a shop of multimedia production, a supermarket of gifts, a quarter of shops for extreme recreation and sports, a multi-brand stock shop (sales of things from shops of all city with a discount) and a unique for Kyiv two-level supermarkets of youth clothes and sports accessories with area of 3000 square meters.
At the address, where several years ago had to appear the shopping center Odysseus in 12 Bulgakova street. building really take place but not of a shopping complex, it is an extension for school.
The building of Lybid’ Plaza in Moscow Square is not being conducted till now. The shopping mall has to include a shopping mall itself with total area of 100 thousand square meters, as well as two high-rise towers of office centers, an underground car park for 1,8 thousand places, a network of restaurants, a cafe, halls with slot machines, a bowling hall, a fitness center, 11 cinema halls. Initially the complex building has been planned to complete in February 2006, however the exact date of the shopping mall opening is not known.
4. Active building of shopping complexes in the city centre and near Petrivka underground is going on, but more projects have appeared on the left bank of Kiev. Kyiv communes of residence such as Desnians’kyy district, Dniprovs’kyy district, Darnyts’kyy district cannot boast of necessary quantity of shopping centers and trading areas, though more than one third of Kiev population (about 947 thousand of people) live in these communes. To functional ShC on the left bank of the capital one can refer such ShC as Children's Paradise ( Детский мир). Alladin, Pyramid, Global UA and recently opened Komod. But during the years to come the situation will change cardinally. Presently Mega-city center, two Kvadrat centers (and 2 more Kvadrat Centers are designed on the left bank), Dniprovs’ka Prystan’, a shopping center in Mayakovs’kyy street, Tel’bin shopping mall, Master Park are under construction. Shopping Centers in Sribnokil’s’ka street, in Balzac street and in Popudrenka street are being designed now.
The last important events in the market of trading real estate of Kiev.
Unesdoc. unesco. org unesdoc. unesco. org Architectural town-planning council of Kiev has approved the conceptual project of Lybids’ka square development (the project of long-suffering Lybid’ Plaza). The project involves building of a multipurpose complex which includes a 4-storeyed part with a shopping-entertaining center, a covered skating rink, cinemas, restaurants, a bowling hall, courts, children's playgrounds and fountains, a multilevel underground car park for 7 thousand cars. The total area of the 4-storeyed shopping-entertaining center will make 151,9 thousand square meters. Around the perimeter of the shopping-entertaining center many-storeyed towers of an “A” class office centre, a five-star hotel, as well as two residential buildings will be erected. The height of the highest tower will make 230 meters. The office centre will include a 29-storeyed northeast tower, a 49-storeyed east tower, a 22-storeyed southeast tower and a 30-storeyed western tower. The total area of the 42-storeyed hotel will make 56 thousand square meters, and the total area of the residential building with apartments will make 70,4 thousand square meters. The project has been developed by company CAW «A. Pashen’ko» together with Canadian company Brisbin and Company. LLC “Investment union “Lybid’” acts as a customer of the project. An estimated cost of the project is about $800 million.
-Architectural town-planning council of Kiev has approved pre-design offers on building of objects of social and residential assignment in a site near Lukjanivka underground (4,14 ha). The offer presented on town-planning council involves building of residential, office and trading objects with the total area of 317,4 thousand square meters. Among them there are 76,3 thousand sq. m of dwelling, 132 thousand sq. m of offices, 28 thousand sq. m of shopping complexes. Also a car park building for 1 970 cars is planned. The pre-design offer has been developed by LLC Architectural-building workshop "Zhezherin" on order of Main Department of culture and arts of Kyiv. The project assumes possibility of demolition of the Lukjanivs’kyy market.
-The owners of the shopping-entertaining centre "Caravan" will sell 10 % of the trading areas (about 4 thousand square meters). According to experts, at the present rent rate in the shopping center cost of 1 sq. m. will fluctuate within $5-8 thousand. The total trading area of ShC "Caravan" is about 40 thousand sq. m. The maximum quantity of visitors is 55 thousand people a day. It is o ne of the most successful projects in the Kyiv shopping centers market.
-Deputies of Kyiv council have leased out two sites in Dniprovs’kyy district with total area of about 8 hectares to the companies LLC "Mike" and LLC "LV-Holding". In the beginning of this year the town-planning council of Kiev has confirmed the project of development of the site. Here it is supposed to construct nine high-rise buildings and several low-rise buildings: a hotel-office complex which will locate in two 47-storeyed houses of a total area of more than 460 thousand sq. m, a shopping-entertaining center with area of 310 thousand sq. m, a residential complex for 650 apartments. The height of all buildings will be about 200 meters (43 floors). An estimated cost of realisation of the project makes $0,5 billion. The project has been developed by architectural workshop of the former main architect of the capital Sergey Babushkin.
Kiev city state administration initiates carrying out of audit and an estimation of expenses of the company-builder of trading-entertaining center "Trojits’kyy" in front of the National sports complex "Olimpiys’kyy". The city state administration proposes to create the governmental commission which according to results of the audit will submit them offers about necessity of expenses recovery to the developer connected with dismantle of the ShC. Then Kyiv city state administration will define the customer and the contractor on dismantle, will develop the schedule and will provide its performance. The task to dismantle the ShC has been put by the Cabinet.
If desired you can buy marketing research of Kyiv shopping centers market or detailed review-report of research of Kyiv shopping centers.
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Prof. Dr. Volker Hoffmann
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Volker Hoffmann is Professor for Sustainability and Technology and the former Head of the Department of Management, Technology, and Economics of ETH Zurich (2011-2014).
He received a diploma in chemical engineering from ETH Zurich in 1997 and a diploma in business administration from the University of Hagen, Germany, in 1999. In 1996/97 and 1999/2000 he worked as a visiting scholar and scientist at MIT where he investigated uncertainty propagation in large scale process models for the chemical industry (group of Gregory J. McRae). In 2001, he obtained his Ph. D. from ETH Zurich with a thesis on multi-objective decision making under uncertainty in chemical process design (group of Konrad Hungerbühler). Before joining the faculty of ETH Zurich in 2004, he was a project manager at McKinsey & Company where he worked in the chemical and electricity industry. He focused on strategy development for European utility companies, especially in the light of upcoming greenhouse gas regulations. During his career, Volker Hoffmann received several scholarships and awards including a German National Academic Foundation Scholarship (1994-97), an Ernest-Solvay-Scholarship (1996/97), and an Exchange Fellow Scholarship of the Alliance for Global Sustainability (1999/2000).
Volker Hoffmann's research at ETH Zurich centers on corporate strategies with respect to climate change, with a focus on climate policy, energy policy, and innovation. Recent research results are being published in journals such as the Journal of Management Studies, Long Range Planning, the California Management Review, Research Policy, Climate Policy, Energy Policy, Global Environmental Change, the Journal of Industrial Ecology, Policy Sciences, Environmental Science & Policy, Energy Economics, the European Management Journal, Business Strategy & the Environment, Environmental Science & Policy and Ecological Economics .
Peer-reviewed Journal Articles
Huenteler, J. Schmidt, T. S. Ossenbrink, J. Hoffmann, V. H. (2015): "Technology life-cycles in the energy sector - Technological characteristics and the role of deployment for innovation", Technology Forecasting and Social Change. doi:10.1016/j. techfore.2015.09.022
Battke, B.; Schmidt, T.; Stollenwerk, S.; Hoffmann, V. H. (2016) "Internal or external spillovers—Which kind of knowledge is more likely to flow within or across technologies." Research Policy, 45, 27-41.doi:10.1016/j. respol.2015.06.014
Hoppmann J. Volland J. Schmidt T. S. Hoffmann V. H. (2014): "The Economic Viability of Battery Storage for Residential Solar Photovoltaic Systems - A Review and a Simulation Model" . Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 39, 1101–1118. doi: 10.1016/j. rser.2014.07.068
Battke B. Schmidt T. S. Grosspietsch D. Hoffmann V. H. (2013): "A review and probabilistic model of lifecycle costs of stationary batteries in multiple applications" . Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 25: 240-250. doi: 10.1016/j. rser.2013.04.023
Hoppmann J. Peters M. Schneider M. Hoffmann V. H. (2013): "The Two Faces of Market Support - How Deployment Policies Affect Technological Exploration and Exploitation in the Solar Photovoltaic Industry" . Research Policy. doi: 10.1016/j. respol.2013.01.002
Furrer B. Hamprecht J. Hoffmann V. H. (2012): "Much Ado About Nothing? How Banks Respond to Climate Change" Business & Society 51 (2012), 62-88. doi: 10.1177/0007650311427428
Peters M. Schneider M. Griesshaber T. Hoffmann V. H. (2012): "The impact of technology-push and demand-pull policies on technical change - does the locus of policies matter?" Research Policy (2012). doi: 10.1016/j. respol.2012.02.004
Schmidt T. S. Schneider M. Hoffmann V. H. (2012): "Decarbonising the power sector via technological change - differing contributions from heterogeneous firms" Energy Policy 43 (2012), 466-479. doi: 10.1016/j. enpol.2012.01.041
Schmidt T. S. Schneider M. Rogge K. S. Schuetz M. J.A. Hoffmann V. H. (2012): "The effects of climate policy on the rate and direction of innovation – a survey on the EU ETS and the electricity sector" Environmental Innovation and Societal Transitions 2 (2012), 23-48. doi: 10.1016/j. eist.2011.12.002
Busch T. Weinhofer G. Hoffmann V. H. "The carbon performance of the 100 largest US electricity producers” . Utilities Policy (2011), 19(2): 95-103. doi: 10.1016/j. jup.2010.12.002
Delmas M. Hoffmann V. H. Kuss M. “Under the tip of the iceberg: absorptive capacity, environmental strategy and competitive advantage" Business & Society 50 (2011), 116-154. doi: 10.1177/0007650310394400
Engau C. Hoffmann V. H. "Corporate Response Strategies to Regulatory Uncertainty: Evidence from Uncertainty about Post-Kyoto Regulation" Policy Sciences 44 (2011), 53–80. doi: 10.1007/s11077-010-9116-0
Engau C. Hoffmann V. H. "Strategizing in an unpredictable climate: Exploring corporate strategies to cope with regulatory uncertainty" Long Range Planning 44 (2011), 42-63. doi: 10.1016/j. lrp.2010.11.003
Engau C. Hoffmann V. H. Busch T. "Airlines’ Flexibility in Facing Regulatory Uncertainty: To Anticipate or Adapt?” California Management Review 54 (2011), 107-125. doi: 10.1525/cmr.2011.54.1.107
Peters N. J. Hofstetter J. S. Hoffmann V. H. "Institutional entrepreneurship capabilities for interorganizational sustainable supply chain strategies" International Journal of Logistics Management 22 (2011), 52-86. doi: 10.1108/09574091111127552
Rogge K. S. Schneider M. Hoffmann V. H. "The innovation impact of the EU Emission Trading System - Findings of company case studies in the German Power Sector" Ecological Economics 70 (2011), 513–523. doi: 10.1016/j. ecolecon.2010.09.032
Ziegler A. Busch T. Hoffmann V. H. "Disclosed Corporate Responses to Climate Change and Stock Performance: An International Empirical Analysis" Energy Economics 33 (2011), 1283-1294. doi: 10.1016/j. eneco.2011.03.007
Ziegler A. Schwarzkopf J. Hoffmann V. H. "Stated Versus Revealed Knowledge: Determinants of Offsetting CO2 Emissions from Fuel Consumption in Vehicle Use" Energy Policy 40 (2012), 422-431. doi: 10.1016/j. enpol.2011.10.027
Busch T. Hoffmann V. H. "How hot is your bottom-line? Linking carbon and financial performance" Business & Society 50 (2011), 233-265. doi: 10.1177/0007650311398780
Pinkse J. Kuss M. J. Hoffmann V. H. "On the implementation of a ‘global’ environmental strategy: The role of absorptive capacity" International Business Review 19 (2010), 160–177. doi: 10.1016/j. ibusrev.2009.11.005
Rogge K. S. Hoffmann V. H. "The impact of the EU ETS on the sectoral innovation system for power generation technologies - Findings for Germany" Energy Policy 38 (2010), 7639-7652. doi: 10.1016/j. enpol.2010.07.047
Schneider M. Hendrichs H. Hoffmann V. H. "Navigating the Global Carbon Market - An analysis of the CDM’s value chain and prevalent business models" Energy Policy 38 (2010), 277-287. doi: 10.1016/j. enpol.2009.09.017
Schneider M. Schmidt T. S. Hoffmann V. H. "Performance of Renewable Energy Technologies under the CDM" Climate Policy 10 (2010), 17–37. doi: 10.3763/cpol.2008.0580
Weinhofer G. Hoffmann V. H. "Mitigating climate change - how do corporate strategies differ?" Business Strategy and the Environment 19 (2010), 77-89. doi: 10.1002/bse.618
Busch T. Hoffmann V. H. “Ecology-driven Real Options: an Investment Framework for Incorporating Uncertainties in the Context of the Natural Environment” Journal of Business Ethics 90 (2009), 295-310. doi: 10.1007/s10551-009-0043-y
Engau C. Hoffmann V. H. " Effects of Regulatory Uncertainty on Corporate Strategy - An Analysis of Firm Responses to Uncertainty about Post-Kyoto Policy" Environmental Science & Policy 12 (2009), 766–777. doi: 10.1016/j. envsci.2009.08.003
Hoffmann V. H. Sprengel D. C. Ziegler A, Kolb M. Abegg B. "Determinants of Corporate Adaptation to Climate Change in Winter Tourism: An Econometric Analysis" Global Environmental Change 19 (2009), 256–264. doi: 10.1016/j. gloenvcha.2008.12.002
Hoffmann V. H. Trautmann T. Hamprecht J. "Regulatory uncertainty – a reason to postpone investments? Not necessarily" Journal of Management Studies 46 (2009), 1227-1253. doi: 10.1111/j.1467-6486.2009.00866.x
Schneider M. Hoffmann V. H. Gurjar B. R. "Corporate Responses to the Clean Development Mechanism - the Indian Pulp and Paper Industry" Climate Policy 9 (2009), 255–272. doi: 10.3763/cpol.2007.0476
Sugiyama H. Fischer U. Antonijuan E. Hoffmann V. H. Hirao M. Hungerbühler K. "How do Different Process Options and Evaluation Settings affect Economic and Environmental Assessments? A Case Study on Methyl Methacrylate (MMA) Production Processes" Process Safety and Environmental Protection 87 (2009), 361–370. doi: 10.1016/j. psep.2009.08.002
Hoffmann V. H. Busch T. "Corporate Carbon Performance Indicators: Carbon Intensity, Dependency, Exposure, and Risk" Journal of Industrial Ecology 12 (2008), 505-520. doi: 10.1111/j.1530-9290.2008.00066.x
Hoffmann V. H. Trautmann T. Schneider M. "A taxonomy for regulatory uncertainty - Application to the European Emission Trading Scheme" Environmental Science & Policy 11 (2008), 712-22. doi: 10.1016/j. envsci.2008.07.001
Schneider M. Holzer A. Hoffmann V. H. "Understanding the CDM’s contribution to technology transfer" Energy Policy 36 (2008), 2920-2928. doi: 10.1016/j. enpol.2008.04.009
Busch T. Hoffmann V. H. "Emerging Carbon Constraints for Corporate Risk Management" Ecological Economics 62 (2007), 518-528. doi: 10.1016/j. ecolecon.2006.05.022
Hoffmann V. H. "EU ETS and Investment Decisions: The Case of the German Electricity Industry" European Management Journal 25 (2007), 464-474. doi: 10.1016/j. emj.2007.07.008
Hoffmann V. H. Busch T. "Carbon Constraints in the 14th and 21th century" Journal of Industrial Ecology 11 (2007), 1-3.
Kolk A. Hoffmann V. H. "Business, Climate Change and Emissions Trading: Taking Stock and Looking Ahead" European Management Journal 25 (2007), 411-414. doi: 10.1016/j. emj.2007.08.003
Reports or Other Publications
Hendrichs H. Busch T. Hoffmann V. H. (2010): "How SME can benefit from climate change" IO new management 6, 8-11 (2010) [in German].
Furrer B. Swoboda M. Hoffmann V. H. (2009): "Banking and Climate Change: Opportunities and Risks - An analysis of climate strategies in more than 100 banks worldwide" SAM, ETH, ZHAW (2009). Descargar
Rogge K. Hoffmann V. H. (2009): "The impact of the EU ETS on the sectoral innovation system for power generation technologies - Findings for Germany" Working Paper Sustainability and Innovation No. S2/2009, Fraunhofer ISI, Karlsruhe. doi: 10.1016/j. enpol.2010.07.047
Hoffmann V. H. Busch T. (2008): "Carbon and climate change – new challenges for corporate risk management", UmweltWirtschaftsForum 16 (2008), Springer-Verlag, Berlin, Heidelberg, 53-58 [in German].
Busch T. Haas C. Hoffmann V. H. (2007): "Carbon-Management wird zum unternehmerischen Erfolgsfaktor" IO New Management 7-8 (2007) 26-29.
Chadha A. Hoffmann V. H. (2007): "Biokunststoffe auf dem Vormarsch – von Kohlenstoff zu Kohlenhydraten“ Umwelt Perspektiven.
Hoffmann V. H. Chadha A. (2007): "Unternehmerische Nachhaltigkeit – Quo Vadis?" Industrie Management 23 (2007) 53-56.
Hoffmann V. H. Trautmann T. (2006): "The role of industry and uncertainty in regulatory pressure and environmental strategy" Academy of Management Best Paper Proceedings (2006) D1-D6. doi: 10.5465/AMBPP.2006.27178303
Hoffmann V. H. Chadha A. (2005): "Nachhaltigkeit – ein Schlüssel zum Unternehmenserfolg?“ Umwelt Perspektiven (2005) 14-15.
Información Adicional
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Maklum masih dalam jaman abad kegelapan , kalo sekarang sudah mulai masuk tahap jaman Medieval . sebentar lagi beralih ke jaman Renaissance . Jadi masih jauh dari abad 21 ( Baroque --> Classical --> Romantic --> Impressionist --> Modern --> 20th Century --> Postmodern --> 21th Century / abad sekarang). Di dunia Forex, saya adalah penganut aliran kepercayaan kuno Fibonacci dan Pivot Klasik (Monthly & Weekly) .
Materi di situs ini merupakan modul/sistem trading kursus Forex . sewaktu dulu saya masih menjadi trainer Forex Trading di Bandung, alumni dari Teknik Elektro, Institut Teknologi Bandung (ITB). Saya mengikuti jejak dosen saya, Pa Onno W. Purbo Ph. D, beliau pakar di bidang Mikroelektronika/Microchip tetapi mendedikasikan tenaga, ilmu dan pengetahuannya untuk pengembangan jaringan Internet serta sistem operasi Linux di NKRI. Kalo saya cukup "keluar jalur" di bidang " spekulasi " Forex saja. Materi kursus ini di bagikan gratis 100% buat anda ( situs ini bersifat non profit . dengan ekstensi domain. org ), sekedar sharing pengalaman, system trading serta sinyal forex harian, sebagai bentuk solidaritas antar Forex Trader di seluruh dunia serta Negara Kesatuan Republik Indonesia pada khususnya, untuk berjuang bersama mengikuti arah permainan "manipulasi harga" oleh Dealer/Trader Bank/Retail ECN/Retail Market Maker/Market Manipulator. (Tidak ada embel-embel link afiliasi, 100% independen t, isinya gabungan dari berbagai situs broker yang dianggap kredibel atau setidaknya bermanfaat secara teknis untuk membantu analisa teknikal dan sentiment market, nggak ada pilih kasih, hampir semua link broker forex tercantum di situs ini, anda bebas menentukan pilihan sendiri, sesuai selera dan keyakinan masing-masing) .
Semoga isi situs ini masih ada manfaatnya. Jayalah Negara Kesatuan Republik Indonesia .
Selamat berjuang mengekori permainan "manipulasi" market oleh Dealer serta Large Speculators "sialan"
Terimakasih atas kunjungan anda.
Favorite Quotations
" Tidak menjadi masalah seberapa sering anda benar atau salah - masalahnya adalah berapa banyak yang anda dapatkan ketika anda benar dan berapa banyak yang anda hilangkan ketika anda salah. " (Eyang George Soros )
"Resiko itu datang dari ketidaktahuan tentang apa yang sedang anda kerjakan" (Eyang Warren Buffett )
"Berikan seseorang sebuah senjata maka dia akan mampu merampok sebuah bank, berikan seseorang sebuah bank maka dia akan mampu merampok seluruh dunia. " ( Prinsip si Om Kapitalis )
“Music is an agreeable harmony for the honor of God and the permissible delights of the soul.” (Eyang Johann Sebastian Bach)
Trading Indicators Guideline
Importance and usefulness of trading indicators.
What is trading indicators, technical indicators or sometimes known as chart analysis?
Before we proceed to elaborate in detail, the first thing one needs to know is, there are two wide categories used to study securities as well as to make decision concerning investment. They are known as fundamental analysis and technical analysis.
A brief introduction of what fundamental analysis . This analysis involved studying the traits of the company in order to predict the value of the company. Year end accounts and how much profit the company makes in a year plays a role in fundamental analysis.
As for technical analysis . it ignores all the values that the company has. Chartists (also known as technicians or analysts) only show interest in the price movement that has taken place in the market.
Technical analysis, trading analysis or also known as chart analysis is an established method of studying securities. This valuable analysis is used worldwide to assist traders and investors in making decision in stock market. It is done by analyzing the data obtained by the market movement. Data used in such analysis are the volume and the price history. Analyst do not try to measure a company’s values but utilizes charts, histograms and other tools (also known as indicators) to detect patterns or trends that could predict future movement. These indicators are calculated mathematically using the past and present price together with or without volume activity. Analysts utilize these information to examine past performance and they are used to estimate or predict future performance and prices. These indicators are then used in choosing the best trading strategy .
Like how investment is split into fundamental and technical analysis, the same happens for technical analysis. Under technical analysis, there are several types of indicators. Some interpret the trend, whether the market trend is bullish or bearish. Some reflects the volatility while some explains the volume. Technical traders are often split into different areas. Some depend on patterns reflected by the charts, some uses technical indicators and oscillators but most use certain combination of both sides. However, no matter which side the trader stand on, technical analysts will use volume and historical price data to predict future movement of certain securities. That will clearly differentiate them from fundamental analysts.
Under the studies of technical analysis, there are three assumptions. 1. The market discounts everything. Technical analysis is often criticized for only using price movement and ignoring the basic factors (profit level, the PE ratio and etc) of a company. However, technical analysts believe that a stock’s price always shows the truth. In simple, the price has reflected what the company is worth after taking into consideration of the profits, the PE ratio and all the fundamental factors. Above that, it is also believed by technical analysts that the price of the stock has also taken into consideration of the economy factors as well as trader psychology. It is already more than the company’s fundamentals alone. Thus, price shows everything. The only factor left to analyze is the movement of the price. This technically leaves only one factor – the demand and the supply of a certain stock in the market.
2. Price follows trend. Technical analysts believe that the price will follow the trend. Once the trend has been identified, the predicted price is likely to move according to the trend. This assumption is widely applied in most trading strategies.
3. The history tends to repeat itself. Technical analysis holds on to another significant belief – that the history tends to repeat itself especially in the aspect of price movement. This repetition is due to market psychology as traders tend to react in a similar way. Despite many charts have been used for almost a decade, they are still actively used as they show trends in price movement and these movements behaves like a cycle – the pattern repeats.
Many beginners in trading often start their journey in trading with a loss. Some even lose up to tens of thousands only to realize that they have started on the wrong foot. ¿Por qué? It is simply because knowledge in trading indicators and how they work are not applied or understood correctly. Going into the market without technical knowledge or fundamental back up is like gambling, where you have a 50-50 chance of winning. Unfortunately, most of the time, like in most gambling tables, the dealer wins. The phrase “learn from mistakes” do not actually work under this circumstance, does it? Mistakes in trading means financial lost.
With the correct understanding of how these indicators work, you can minimize your loss while maximizing your profit. It will save you lots of money and heartaches. Once you have understood these chart indicators, it will be easier for you to enter the market at the correct time and in the correct position. In simple terms, once you can fully grasp the pros and cons of technical analysis, it presents you a strategy that allows you to be a wiser and better investor or trader.
This website is to provide a guide on how these indicators work and how to make use of these indicators to your advantage. After a trader or an investor have a thorough knowledge of these indicators, he or she can then decide which trading strategy is the most comfortable to use under different circumstances. Do take note that technical analysis is not only for stocks. It can be used in any other markets – futures, commodities, forex, securities and etc. However, to study this in depth, we will use stock as our guideline.
We will be providing a guide on the following :
Definition of Trade Strategy
Momentum Strategies – Using The Elder Impulse System Strategy.
The Triple Screen Strategy.
Pattern recognition for trends and correction – Using Candlesticks Strategy.
Divergent signal.
Volume break out strategy.
Consolidation pattern break out strategy.
What really make stock price goes up?
The most profitable stock pattern you can buy.
Understanding market psychology.
How to read the mind of the market?
How to manage your risk, profit and loss?
Treasure hunting. finding the next big trend.
y muchos otros.
To safeguard your capital and to grow your finance, like it or not, any traders without a doubt, needs to gain sufficient knowledge and understand how trading strategy works together with different types of trading indicators, technical indicators or chart analysis works.
Larry Williams
See Larry Williams's Indicators in Action Click Here »
Larry Williams is probably the most widely known individual trader in the world over the last half century, creating innovative trading concepts before there were personal computers and continuing today with his busy schedule of seminar appearances and writing market.
Still an active trader who may trade thousands of contracts a month, Williams gained notoriety by winning the Robbins World Cup Trading Championship in 1987 when he turned $10,000 into more than $1 million in less than a year. By that time, he had already gained fame and recognition not only for his trading abilities but also for his seminar presentations and his books, now available in all major languages of the world.
Williams, a Montana boy whose family had never owned a stock and who started his college career as an art major before shifting to journalism, believes the real accomplishments of his career have been writing the first book ever on seasonal patterns back in 1973 (Sure Thing Commodity Trading), his work on measures of accumulation and distribution, originating volatility breakout strategies that have become popular, and his studies revealing the value of the Commitments of Traders report, virtually unknown until he began writing about COT data in 1970.
Williams is the author of How I Made a Million Dollars Last Year Trading Commodities, Long-Term Secrets to Short-Term Trading and a number of other trading books, and he has presented his ground-breaking trading techniques on stages around the world from Hong Kong to Hawaii, Moscow to Malaysia, Brazil to Belgrade.
Many people associate Williams’ name with innovative trading concepts and technical indicators based on price action and technical analysis, but he actually is a firm believer in fundamental analysis, contending price moves occur because of shifts in, or perceptions about, supply or demand conditions. Larry Williams has released his most exclusive indicators only available in TradeShark.
Final version, March 2002
Final version, March 2002
Prepared by Geneviève Le Bihan, Francis Delpeuch, Bernard Maire
Institut de Recherche pour le Développement
Unité R106 Nutrition, Alimentation, Sociétés
History of this report
It was during the World Food Summit in 1996 that Pierre Vuarin of the “ Agricultures Paysannes, Sociétés et Mondialisation” (APM) network of the Fondation Charles Léopold Mayer pour le Progrès de l’Homme (FPH) and Francis Delpeuch, Researcher in Nutrition at the Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD) had their first discussions concerning nutrition and public policy.
Five years later, the idea has come to fruition with the publication of this report “ Food, Nutrition and Public Policies” . prepared by three public nutrition experts: Geneviève Le Bihan, Francis Delpeuch and Bernard Maire. It benefits from their professional experience and networks in both developing and industrialised countries, as well as their links with the wider international scientific community. It forms part of a series of complementary reports that are related to food and nutrition: sustainable agriculture, food security, health, water, biodiversity and genetically modified organisms, international business trade, training community leaders 1 and so on.
This report Food, Nutrition and Public Policies has already been presented and discussed in several differing contexts:
Meeting of the APM network at Castielfabib (Spain), May 2001;
World Forum of Food Sovereignty, Havana (Cuba), September 2001;
European meeting “Another diet is possible” at Teruel (Spain), September 2001;
Conference “ Savoirs Partagés” at the Agropolis museum, Montpellier (France), November 2001;
World Citizen Assembly at Lille (France), December 2001;
World Social Forum at Porto Alegre (Brazil), January 2002;
Conference of the Institut Français pour la Nutrition (IFN) at Paris (France), May 2002;
World Food Summit at Rome (Italy), June 2002.
It has been reviewed by several experts, to whom the authors are extremely grateful: Hélène Delisle, Professor of Nutrition, University of Montreal (Canada); Tim Lang, Professor of Food Policy, Thames Valley University, London (UK); Rebecca Norton, Nutrition Specialist for La Fondation Terre des Hommes, (Switzerland); Souleymane Seck, Deputy of the National Assembly of Senegal and retired Vice-Chancellor of L’Université Internationale Senghor d’Alexandrie of Egypt. We are equally grateful to Marie-Lise Sabrié, Scientific Writer at the IRD (France) for her precious advice and suggestions and to Michelle Holdsworth, lecturer in human nutrition, University of Nottingham (UK) for her help with the english version.
Today more than half the world population suffers from one form or another of malnutrition, deficiency diseases and/or diseases caused by over-nourishment. Despite considerable effort and a certain amount of progress, the goals that were defined at international summits during the 1990s to reduce malnutrition in the world are far from being attained. In addition, the gap between rich and poor globally and within countries is widening, and this further worsens the nutritional and sanitary status of the poor.
Scientific research has revealed the enormous toll malnutrition levies on human development and on the development of societies as a whole. Everything points to the fact that progress towards more equitable and more sustainable true development, more equitable and more sustainable, will depend on how families, governments and the international community deal with questions concerning nutrition and food in coming decades. Awareness of the stakes involved is gradually increasing but many politicians and economists are still not well enough informed. Nor has enough progress been made in informing and mobiliszing citizens. Agriculture and agri-food industries continue to produce food without paying sufficient attention to its long-term implications for health, while the health sector has to pay for diseases caused by inadequate diet. These different modes of production and of consumption call into question respect for environmental goals e. g. the sustainability and biodiversity of the entire food system. To this we must add the uncertainty surrounding the effects of globalisation and climatic change.
The complex causes of nutritional problems, and their interrelationship with political, socio-economic, environmental factors and with the management of resources, suggest that we need to look beyond a conventional biomedical approach and the search for one-off solutions. These approaches have shown their limitations in reducing malnutrition, although of course some strategies - such as the promotion of breastfeeding and the fight against micronutrient deficiencies have started to proved their worth and should be continued and indeed reinforcedstrengthened.
However, a different approach is possible: a wider-ranging and necessarily more complex approach in which the first step is to consider nutritional well-being as the central concept in our ways-of-life, modes of production and consumption. This entails re-thinking the theoretical and practical basis of many policies and actions. It implies adhering to a trend that has been emerging over the past few years: to consider questions of nutrition in terms of human rights, and accepting the idea of a new paradigm for world agriculture.
This approach will confront conflicting interests in as much as considerable change must happen in all parts of the food chain. It will inevitably have to overcome much resistance.
The basis for a new approach to public nutrition
The right to adequate nutrition;
Public nutrition approach: integrated, multi-sector and participative;
Priority given to the nutritional well-being of the population when defining policies integrating nutritional well-being, environmental concerns and social justice, particularly social, health, agricultural, economic and environmental policies;
The mobiliszation of individual citizens and/or communities for changes in modes of production methods and in the adoption of a more balanced diet and healthier life stylelifestyle. This implies permanent requires continuous information and education campaigns;
A new paradigm for world agriculture: the promotion of durable food systems that favour nutrition, health and well-being;
A guarantee of nutritional quality of food that respects different cultures and food preferences;
Improvement in the situation status of women, literacy education and help in entering the labour force;
Good nutritional status of pregnant women and young children as a pre-condition for the development of society;
Nutritional surveillance at the population scale level to obtain objective data for monitoring and decision-making;
Scientific research directed towards solving nutritional problems at the population scalelevel;
Training professionals in this new way of thinking.
Proposals 2
Develop an effective advocacy to persuade decision-makers; particularly those outside the field of nutrition in the strictest sense of the termword, i. e. economists, politicians, legislators, and representatives of agriculture, the agri-food sector, distribution, catering, and the environment;
Organisze national workshops to define nutrition policy ; these should bring together decision-makers, researchers with those directly involved, i. e. producers, manufacturers, distributors and consumers;
Continue and strengthen programmes that have proved effective ; such as the promotion of exclusive breastfeeding, the timely introduction of adequate complementary foods and prevention of micronutrient supplementationdeficiency;
Introduce legislation and/or other measures to encourage respect of the right of the individual to food and nutrition. The first step could be the adoption of the “International Code of Conduct on the Human Right to Adequate Food";
Strengthen regulations concerning agricultural and industrial food production to ensure food is of satisfactory quality - from the point of view of nutrition, hygiene and flavour - while at the same time respecting the environment;
Strengthen regulations on labelling of foods to ensure the consumer has access to objective information;
Tighten controls on food advertising particularly that aimed at children;
Tax food products with low nutritional value ; this could take the form of a small tax to generate funds for preventive actions and/or for the promotion of health or a bigger larger tax to discourage the consumption of these products. It could also take the form of lowering VAT on products that are to be promoted for their nutritional value;
Develop an environment that encourages physical activity; create sports facilities at both leisure and work sites that are financially accessible for everyone, together with the necessary urban infrastructure and public transportadapt the infrastructure in the different public places the population uses for travel, work and leisure;
Create jobs for specialists in public nutrition ; in their position as members of a central administration, these people can form multi-disciplinary teams to facilitate a global, integrated approach;
Create university courses in public nutrition ; at PhD level they should be multi-disciplinary;
Reinforce further education programs in public nutrition for professionals engaged at all levels and in particular those employed in the health, food, and education sectors;
Introduce nutritional surveillance at the national or regional scalelevel depending on the political and administrative structure of the country concerned;
Introduce monitoring procedures to ensure the right to food and nutrition is fulfilled.
Towards commitment of the agricultural and agri-food sectors to the production of quality food:
Diversify agricultural crops to encourage production of foods rich in micronutrients – vegetables, fruit, pulseslegumes – while respecting the environment and food safety regulations;
Introduce nutritional quality objectives in industrial production and institutional catering – less salt, less sugar and less fat, and more micronutrients and dietary fibres;
Develop a more effective conservation and processing sector, to improve availability, accessibility and the food price-quality ratio;
Continue nutrient fortification of food products while paying particular attention that those in need consume these foods, and that the fortified foods are well integrated in local eating habits;
Encourage the manufacture of complementary foods to breastfeeding by small local enterprises in countries with limited resources;
Produce food labelling that is objective, complete and easy to understand;
Promote the introduction of good practice charters and moral commitment in educational material produced by the agri-food industry;
Facilitate access to professional education and training by women employed in the agricultural and food sectors.
Involve the local community in the development and implementation of action plans of action for nutrition: this involvement is a key factor if interventions are to be sustainablefor the sustainability of the action;
Reinforce the capacity for the analysis of nutritional problems with respect to their dimension, trends, and causes;
MobilizeMobilise consumers: strengthen nutrition education programmes and information campaigns to raise awareness and educate the public;
MobilizeMobilise young people . choose schools as sites for nutrition education programmes; involve young people in programmes to improve life stylelifestyles and consumer behaviour not only aimed at themselves but also at other people;
MobilizeMobilise women . use of participatory methods as a means of increasing women’s access to resources that will allow them to retain their primary role in food security and care of the family;
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A child in a Chinese sweatshop and a clerk in a US office working for the same company are subject to very different labour regulations. In the global economy global labour standards are not yet a priority of the international community. Transnational corporations (TNCs) benefit from the recent wave of trade liberalization and increasingly shift their operations to countries with low wages and limited labour rights. The lack of labour rights and trade unions along with a cheap and flexible labour force becomes an important bargaining factor in the competition for foreign direct investment. TNCs often use their power to push down wages and conditions of employment in return for investment. In particular labour-intensive and dangerous production has moved to countries where labour rights are disregarded.
As TNCs spread their operations across more and more countries, global labour rights become increasingly important. In 1998, the International Labour Organization (ILO) adopted the “Declaration on Fundamental Principles and Rights at Work”. The adoption of the declaration marked a renewed commitment of the member states to respect, promote and realize principles such as the freedom of association, the right to collective bargaining, elimination of all forms of forced labour, abolition of child labour, and elimination of discrimination in employment and occupation. International regulations, however, remain a weak instrument in the struggle for global labour rights as many countries do not enforce them even if they have ratified the conventions in question. Therefore, NGOs try to hold companies who ignore basic labour rights at any stage of the production process directly responsible. For example, they initiate boycott campaigns, such as the appeal to boycott Nike in response to the appoling conditions in production sites of the sportswear giant. In reaction, many corporations nowadays have adopted a Code of Conduct that deals with the rights of their employees. Multinationals, however, often outsource production and claim not to be responsible for labour standards in the factories of their subcontractors, while they still profit from the low labour costs and the disrespect for basic human rights in the workplace.
Traditionally, labour rights are the domain of trade unions and these have a long history of fighting for workers’ rights, mainly within a state, although there has been international co-operation among unions since the 19th century. With the globalization of the economy, more NGOs are engaging in the struggle for global labour rights along with trade unions who increasingly co-operate across national borders and within particular industries. Until recently, trade unions in the North were mainly concerned with the loss of jobs in their countries, claiming that low labour standards in other countries represented an unfair advantage. NGOs have been more concerned about labour rights in the South, which deteriorated even further after more TNCs moved their production to developing countries. Lately, NGOs and trade unions in the North as well as in the South have improved their co-operation across national boundaries to promote global labour rights, although there are still conflicts between the different interests. This said, however, the line between trade unions and NGOs is sometimes somewhat blurred, especially in many developing countries.
Trade unions and NGOs agree on basic global labor rights, which should include, for example, the freedom of association, collective bargaining, abolition of forced labour, equal opportunities for women and men, and safe working conditions. These basic principles are often violated, for instance, in sweatshops and Export Processing Zones. In this context we can identify women and children as particular vulnerable groups, who are regularly abused and exploited. In view of the lack of commitment by TNCs regarding international legislation, labour activists engage in fair trade and other initiatives to realize global labour rights.
Thursday, December 03 2009 Precariat meet’n'greet (Source: New Unionism Network)
News: Peter Waterman's books, articles and analysis
News: Indian trade unions and NGOs call for new global economic order
Campagins: Domestic workers need special protection from the ILO - support the call
Reports: Trade and development
Campagins: Decent Work Campaign
Reports: The future of labour rights: Corporate accountability and fair trade
International organizations and trade unions
International group which promotes global unionism through the creative application of organizing, workplace democracy, and internationalist principles.
International Trade Union Confederation - ITUC (ITUC)
The Programme Document adopted at the ITUC founding Congress sets out the Confederation’s overall policy framework, which builds on existing International Confederation of Free Trade Unions (ICFTU) and World Confederation of Labour (WCL) policies. Its main areas of activity include: + trade union and human rights + economy, society and the workplace + equality and non-discrimination + international solidarity.
World Confederation of Labour (WCL)
The WCL is an international trade union confederation uniting 144 autonomous and democratic trade unions from 116 countries. It has over 30 million members, mainly from developing countries.
Increasingly, the name “Global Unions” is being used for the major institutions of the international trade union movement. The members of Global Unions are: Education International, International Confederation of Free Trade Unions, International Federation of Building and Wood Workers, International Federation of Chemical, Energy, Mine and General Workers' Union, International Federation of Journalists, International Metalworkers' Federation International Textile, Garment and Leather Workers' Federation, International Transport Workers' Federation, International Union of Food, Agricultural, Hotel, Restaurant, Catering, Tobacco and Allied Workers' Association, Public Services International, Trade Union Advisory Committee to the OECD, Union Network International.
International Labour Organization (ILO)
The ILO is the UN specialized agency which seeks the promotion of social justice and internationally recognized human and labour rights. The ILO formulates international labour standards in the form of conventions and recommendations setting minimum standards of basic labour rights: freedom of association, the right to organize, collective bargaining, abolition of forced labour, equality of opportunity and treatment, and other standards regulating conditions across the entire spectrum of work related issues.
Information resources
The decent work deficit (Third World Network - TWN)
The International Labour Office (ILO)’s 2006 Global Employment Trends Brief paints a sombre picture not only of growing unemployment and poverty but also of a significant lack of decent job opportunities, especially for young people. More youth are poor or underemployed than ever before. Some 106 million youth work but live in households that earn less than the equivalent of US$1 per day. According to the Global Employment Trends Brief, the largest increase in unemployment occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean, where the number of unemployed rose by nearly 1.3 million and the unemployment rate increased by 0.3 percentage points between 2004 and 2005 to 7.7%. August 2006.
Globalisation and Labour Standards (GALS)
The GALS Bibliographic Library contains abstracts of recent law journal articles exploring international labour standards and rights in the global economy. Taken from English language law journals from around the world, GALS provides an annotated bibliography categorized by subject heading.
Daily-updated online service with labour news from around the world, maintained by a global network of volunteers which aims to serve the international trade union movement by collecting and disseminating information and by assisting unions in campaigning and other ways.
The International Labour Organization: A handbook for minorities and indigenous peoples (Antislavery International)
This handbook gives an insider's view of how the ILO works. It explains how the organization can be used by NGOs and other groups, to promote and protect minority and indigenous peoples' rights (pdf-file).
Civil society organizations in the North
The Global Workplace is a project of War on Want that aims to link workers around the world in global solidarity to ensure that the global economy works for the majority. Site includes campaigns on workers’ rights and links to civil society organizations around the world.
The Clean Clothes Campaign aims to improve working conditions in the garment and sportswear industry. It is a decentralized network of trade unions, human rights and women rights organizations, researchers, solidarity groups, and activists, which operates autonomously in each member country.
Oxfam’s fair trade site which gives a voice to the farmers, labourers, and factory workers who are being cheated by the blatantly unfair rules of world trade. It lobbies for a change of consumer behavior towards supporting fair trade initiatives.
An initiative by Oxfam, the Clean Clothes Campaign and Global Unions to pressure sportswear companies which should take their responsibilities seriously and stop pushing their manufacturers into exploitative business practices for the sake of greater and greater profit. In addition, the International Olympics Committee should use its influence to ensure workers in the sportswear industry work under fair, dignified and safe conditions.
CorpWatch counters corporate-led globalization through education, network-building and activism. It works to foster democratic control over corporations by building grassroots globalization a diverse movement for human rights and dignity, labour rights and environmental justice.
This Canadian network is promoting solidarity with groups in Mexico, Central America, and Asia organizing in maquiladora factories and export processing zones to improve conditions and win a living wage. It builds solidarity through campaigns, government lobbying, popular education, and international links.
Central American Women’s Network (CAWN)
CAWN is a UK-based network of women that supports the efforts of Central America women's organizations to defend their rights and increase their voice and their presence in political and economic decision-making fora in Central America. It publicizes the work of Central American women's organizations and invites Central American women themselves to make direct input into relevant research, policy, advocacy and campaigning initiatives in the global North.
Sweatshop Watch is a coalition of over 30 labour, community, civil rights, immigrant rights, women's, religious and student organizations, and many individuals, committed to eliminating the exploitation that occurs in sweatshops. Sweatshop Watch serves low-wage workers nationally and globally, with a focus on garment workers in California.
The Global Labour Institute support the efforts of the labour movement to deal with the globalization of the world economy and its social and political consequences and, to this end, to strengthen links and networks between trade unions and other civil society organizations with similar or converging interests, particularly in the defense of human and democratic rights and social justice in all its aspects.
The organization aims to eliminate the system of slavery around the world by urging governments of countries with slavery to develop and implement measures to end it, working with local organizations to raise public awareness of slavery, and educating the public about the realities of slavery and campaigning for its end.
The NLC is a human rights advocacy group, dedicated to promoting and defending the rights of workers. Through establishing long standing working relationships with non-governmental, human rights, labour and religious organizations, primarily in Latin America, the NLC educates and actively involves the public in actions aimed at ending labour abuses, improving living conditions for workers and their families and promoting the concept of a living wage and true independent monitoring.
Campaign for Labor Rights (CLR)
The CLR mobilizes grassroots support throughout the United States to promote economic and social justice by campaigning to end labour rights violations around the world. It educates about, and advocates against, the underlying causes of the global sweatshop. Its campaign strategies are designed in collaboration with workers struggling to gain the right to organize, the right to earn a living wage in a clean, safe work environment, and the right to bargain collectively with their bosses. Through these campaigns CLR's goal is to empower workers.
The International Centre for Trade Union Rights (ICTUR)
ICTUR has established a global network of trade unionists, labour lawyers, academics and reporters. This network promotes discussion, education, campaigning and action in order to understand, to defend and to extend trade union rights worldwide.
Fields of Hope is an American Web site which provides educational materials about children working in agriculture. It explains why many children work in this and why it is so often unhealthy, socially isolating or harmful. It also describes what life is like for many of these children.
No Sweat is an UK-based activist organization, fighting sweatshop bosses, in solidarity with workers, worldwide. It campaigns for a living wage, safe working conditions, and independent trade unions.
HomeNet is an international solidarity network for home-based workers and their organizations. It aims at representing, organizing and supporting home-based workers around the world to improve their working and living conditions.
Where our clothes are made: sweatshops
Women exploiting women (National Labor Committee)
Women in the U. S. are purchasing clothing sewn by women who are exploited in Guatemala. The Nicotex sweatshop produces clothing for Briggs New York and Lane Bryant. The U. S. Free Trade Agreement with Central America continues to fail, undermined by corruption and a total lack of enforcement of labor laws. February 2009.
Labour standards: who's got the universal code? (Maquila Solidarity Network)
Who's got the Universal Code? examines attempts by multi-stakeholder initiatives and industry associations to develop and promote a 'universal' code of conduct that would be applicable to one or more sectors in the globalized economy. (pdf). April 2008
Behind the labels: garment workers on US Saipan (Witness)
This video shows how women from several Asian countries, lured by the promise of good American jobs, flock to the U. S. territory of Saipan's sweatshops.
Bound by promises: contemporary slavery in rural Brazil (Witness)
This video shows how every year, over 25,000 workers are enslaved in rural Brazil. Trapped by debt bondage on isolated ranches in the Amazon region, they are forced to do backbreaking work and live in dismal conditions.
Offside! Labor rights and sportswear production in Asia (Oxfam)
As global sports brands crank up their advertising for the 2006 FIFA World Cup, sportswear workers in Asia are struggling to earn a living. Oxfam International’s report "Offside! Labor Rights and Sportswear Production in Asia" examines how sports brands are tackling the problem of sweatshops in their industry with a particular focus on workers’ freedom to form and join trade unions. The report features nine case studies that document how sports brands have responded to evidence of labor rights abuses in particular factories. In some cases they have responded well and addressed the problems while in others labor abuses have continued. Ultimately, a bigger challenge remains to persuade sports brands to make sure human rights are respected right across their supply chain. The report assesses how much effort sports brands have made to improve labor rights for all workers who make their products. June 2006.
Asia: end of textile agreement spells huge job losses (IPS)
The Multifibre Agreement (MFA), an international quota system for the textile and clothing industry, set the rules for international trade in textiles. The growth of textile and garments industries in many countries has been heavily dependent on the quota allocations under the MFA. Several will be forced to shut down as the agreement is coming to an end in 2005.
Sweatshops and globalisation: an activist response (No Sweat)
This pamphlet introduces the issue of sweatshops. It includes e. g. an FAQ section, examples of resistance from sweatshop workers, a case study of Nike and Adidas production in Indonesia, and an introduction to capitalist globalization and its institutions (pdf-file).
We are not machines: Indonesian Nike and Adidas workers (Maquila Solidarity)
Despite some small steps forward poverty and fear still dominate the lives of Nike and Adidas workers in Indonesia. This report reveals that the sweat shop workers are still underpaid, have to fear severe punishment when try to unionize, and work under dangerous conditions while physically and psychologically abused (pdf-file).
Still waiting for Nike to do it (Global Exchange)
In 1998, Nike's CEO and founder Phillip Knight promised substantial improvements of the working conditions in its supplier factories. This report represents a comprehensive examination of Nike's labour performance in the three years since that speech was made. That performance is assessed against the commitments Knight announced and compared with the human rights standards and independent monitoring practices labour rights organizations have demanded of the company (pdf-file).
Report on the working conditions of football and soccer workers in mainland China (Clean Clothes Campaign)
This is an account of the working conditions in factories that produce footballs for companies such as Adidas and Puma. In particular in peak season the working hours are long and exhausting. Above that the workers face health and safety hazards, delayed payment of salaries, restriction of personal freedom, and arbitrary penalties (pdf-file).
Play fair at the Olympics: Report about the sportswear industry (Fairolympics)
This report at the dawn of the 2004 Olympics asks fundamental questions about the global sportswear industry. It shows that the business practices of major sportswear companies violate both the spirit and the letter of the Olympic Charter. Profits are created at the expense of the dignity, health, and safety of the workers. Yet, the International Olympics Committee has been remarkably silent in the face of these contraventions (pdf-file).
The labour behind the label: How our cloths are made (Maquila Solidarity Network)
This issue sheet provides an introduction to how the garment industry works and to the sweatshop practices common in the industry. It describes the changes that have taken place in the industry in the past decades and its consequences for the workforce. The report includes stories from sweatshop workers in El Salvador, China and Canada.
The situation of women workers
Mobilize for an ILO Convention on the rights of domestic workers (International Domestic Workers' Network)
Unions demand respect and rights for domestic workers (IUF / IRENE)
This new web site developed by the IUF presents a collection of reports, background information and updates on the struggle of domestic workers for respect and human rights with a special emphasis on migrant women domestic workers. November 2008.
Key feminist concerns regarding core labor standards, decent work and corporate social responsibility (WIDE)
This publication provides a feminist analysis of workers' rights issues in respect of core labor standards, the decent work paradigm and Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) in relation to trade policy, especially that of the European Union (EU). August 2008. (PDF).
Women's contribution to equality in Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC)
There are two key issues in the structural pattern of inequality between women and men: first, political participation and gender parity in decision-making processes at all levels, and, second, women's contribution to the economy and social protection, especially in relation to unpaid work. August 2007.
Female workers lose rights under liberalisation (TWN Africa)
Economic and trade liberalisation policies adopted by a number of African countries have led in some instances to harsh working conditions amounting to violation of workers’ rights. According to research done in two African countries by the Gender and Economic Reforms in Africa (GERA) Programme, female workers may be bearing the greater brunt of the harsh impacts of these policies than their male counterparts. June 2006.
Patterns of change: global labour rights in the garment industry (Choike)
Labour rights in the apparel industry, where 75% of the 23 million workers in that sector are women, are basically a women's issue. The next two years are crucial for women garment workers as wholesalers in the North are reorganizing their global chains of supplies in order to adapt to new free trade agreements. Experienced international leaders of the trade union movement discussed the progress and regress in the last ten years assessing the different strategies that have been used and how they have complemented - or opposed - each other. 10th AWID Forum, 27-03 October, Bangkok.
Progress of the world's women 2005: women, work and poverty (UNIFEM)
Even as the global marketplace has brought new opportunities and jobs for some, much of the world's working poor remains ensnared in an informal economy where low-paying and unreliable jobs perpetuate poverty, especially for female workers.
International labour standards concerning women workers (ILO)
Although most international labour standards apply without distinction to men and women workers, there are a number of Conventions and Recommendations which refer specifically to women. This site offers the existing documents as well as the ILO's activities in the area.
Women's work in Export Processing Zones and in the informal economy (Clean Clothes Campaign)
This report monitors the working and living conditions of female workers from China, Indonesia and Sri Lanka in Export Processing Zones (EPZ) and sweatshops. The phase-out of the WTO Agreement on Textiles and Clothing at the end of 2004 even threatens to aggravate the oppressing situation for the workers in this industry. The report is available for download in PDF format.
Gender and labour market liberalisation in Africa (African Labour and Research Network (ALRN))
A number of African countries adopted and formulated structural adjustment policies with the assumption that the effects are gender-neutral. It is now generally acknowledged that women tend to suffer more and gain less from adjustment policies. Seven labour research centres from seven African countries analysed the current economic and labour policies to see their impact on the labour force and the organised labour movement in general, and women in particular. 2004.
A migrant world of services (Oxford University Press)
The strong demand for women's domestic, caring, and sexual labor in contemporary Europe promotes migrations from many parts of the world. "The moral panic over trafficking and the limited feminist debate on "prostitution" contribute to a climate that ignores the social problems of the majority of women migrants". This article examines the history of concepts that marginalize these as unproductive services (and not really "work") and questions why the West accepts the smifeudal conditions and lack of regulations pertaining to this sector. By Laura M. Agustin.
Trading away our rights: Women working in global supply chains (Oxfam - Make Trade Fair)
Globalization has drawn millions of women into paid employment across the developing world. Women are working at the end of a global supply chain - sewing clothes, picking fruit and cutting flowers – but are systematically denied a fair share of the benefits brought by globalization. Their work is characterized by long hours, low wages, and no job security (pdf-file).
Trade liberalisation and the rights of women workers: Are social clauses the answer? (Women Working Worldwide)
The liberalization of world trade has particular implications for women, as paid and unpaid workers. The increased demand for a low cost, flexible and dispensable workforce often means a preference for female labour. Many women are forced to accept appalling conditions in order to sustain their families in the face of deteriorating living standards. Instead of more international regulations this report asks for fighting the neoliberal economy that is the underlying reason for the exploitation of female labourers.
Women’s rights – workers’ rights (American Federation of Labor – Congress of Industrial Organizations)
Facts and stories about female workers from around the world, including Indonesia, Mexico, Ireland, South Africa, and the United States (pdf-file).
Working women in China – second class workers (China Labour Bulletin)
As in many other countries women in China are less educated than men, with a lower social status, and are generally seen as only temporary participants in the workplace. This helps to ensure that female workers remain poorly trained, with few marketable skills, thus keeping the vast majority of women workers in jobs with low wages, poor job security and relatively few chances of promotion or longevity of employment.
Problems faced by women working in Sri Lanka’s Export Processing Zones (Asian Monitor Resource Center)
As in other countries young women are the main work force in the Export Processing Zones of Sri Lanka. This short report reveals the problems related to the work such as low wages, insufficient housing and public transportation, violation of basic health and safety regulations, and abuse by senior male employees.
Solidarity: Women workers unite (Global Workplace)
The gender debate is one that cannot be avoided in international development as women are most often the worst affected and bear the burden of poverty. This site is a gateway to organizations who fight for women workers’ rights across the world with a focus on organizations in the South.
Slavery today: forms of forced and bonded labour
The cost of coercion (International Labor Organization)
More than 12 million live in modern slavery (ILO)
Nearly 12.3 million people are exploited through forced labour according to a new report released by the Internatinal Labour Organization (ILO). Asia is the region with the highest number but new forms of forced labour are emerging, particularly affecting migrant workers, in rich and poor destination countries alike. Furthermore, these figures of labour exploitation refer almost entirely to the private economy, rather than being imposed directly by states. PDF document. May 2005.
Forced labour in Brazil (Third World Network)
Forced labour affects some 30,000 to 40,000 men, women and children in Brazil today, according to figures cited by the national media. The following article shows how modern-day slaves in Brazil become ensnared in a trap of debt and coercion. July 2004.
Source: Antislavery International Introduction to the issue of slave labour: Millions of men, women and children around the world are forced to lead lives as slaves. Although this exploitation is often not called slavery, the conditions are the same. People are sold like objects, forced to work for little or no pay and are at the mercy of their 'employers'.
Forced Labour in the 21st century (International Confederation of Free Trade Unions)
This booklet highlights some of the ways in which forced labour manifests itself internationally, including through slavery, bonded labour, trafficking and child labour. References are made to the relevant human rights standards in order to explain in what conditions exploitive labour practices can be described as forced labour. Case studies from various countries illustrate the issue (pdf-file).
Slave Trade or Fair Trade? The problem, the solution and how you can take action (Antislavery International)
Slavery exists within a global economy and some of the goods we buy may be tainted by slave labour. This leaflet looks at slavery and child labour particularly within the cocoa and carpet industries. It sets out possible solutions, focusing on fair trade and ethical trade, and action you can take (pdf-file).
Bonded labour and the tea plantation economy (Revolutionary Democracy)
This account from India describes the fate of the mostly indigenous workforce in the tea plantations. The workers are bonded to work in the plantations generation after generation without a real possibility to escape. The report calls for the trade unions to fulfill their responsibilities towards the tea plantation workers.
Bonded child labour (Child Right)
Short introduction to the issue of bonded child labour, where parents or a guardian promise the child's labour in exchange for a loan. Subsequently, the combination of low wages and high interest rates make it impossible to repay the initial debt.
Libros
Trade union-NGO relations
Within the framework of the European Social Forum 2008, Peter Waterman analyzed the iniciatives put forward by trade unions and the labour agenda. In a special document, he develops critical opinions on the international union hegemons. Furthermore, he submitted his proposal "a global charter movement" to develop a declaration or manifesto on labour, relevant to all working people, under the conditions of a radically transformed and highly aggressive capitalism, neo-liberalised, networked and globalised. September 2008, pdf format.
The rise and rise of NGOs (Public Services International)
Deep links exist between NGOs and trade unions. Many NGOs were established by unions and the two groups still work together in powerful coalitions and joint campaigns. But while the NGO sector has expanded rapidly in recent decades, the union movement has declined. The diversity between NGOs makes the movement impossible to pigeon hole, except that “it represents civil society’s most visible response to globalization.” The author states that unions must draw from NGOs' example and become the new civil society alternative.
Developing a crucial social movement triangle (Choike)
The triangular relationship between trade unions, the global justice and solidarity movement and academia seems to provide a space within which it is possible not only to reflect, at some critical distance, on the movements themselves but also one within which there can be some serious dialogue on the relations between the three. Although the new movements have little trouble looking critically at themselves and each other, trade unions and political parties do have a problem here. August 2005.
Union organisations, social movements and the augean stables of global governance
The traditional international union organisations are currently engaged in a series of "social partnership" initiatives at global level. Prominent amongst these is that addressed to "global governance". This project comes from outside and above the unions, is addressed to the existing hegemonic interstate instances, and is carried out primarily by lobbying. This orientation is increasingly challenged by a "global justice and solidarity movement", more concerned with the democratisation of the global, and more oriented to consciousness-raising and mobilising than lobbying. The new movement, moreover, operates in places and spaces, with forms and understandings, that relate rather to a contemporary globalised-informatised capitalism than to the old national-industrial-colonial one which gave rise and shape to the international unions. Trade unions will have to abandon the discourse of global governance for that of global democracy, and to operate on the terrains of this new movement, if they are to effectively defend and advance worker rights and power under the new global dispensation. April 2006, pdf format.
Strengthening trade unionism is necessary (World Confederation of Labour)
In the face of the disastrous upheavals caused by globalisation according to the neo-liberal model, trade unionism must react, strengthen. A process is now going on to create, in 2006, a new international trade union organisation that would regroup the member organisations of the World Confederation of Labour (WCL) and the International Confederation of Free Trade Unions (ICFTU) as well as independent and democratic organisations currently without international affiliation. July 2005.
Trade Union internationalism and a global civil society in the making
Two events, held in January 2004, suggest major ways in which the international trade union movement is trying to respond to the shock of globalisation. The question is whether union participation at these two very different events, one at the Fourth World Social Forum (WSF4) in Mumbai, India, and the other at the Internacional Labour Organisation's (ILO) Training Centre in Turin, Italy, represents competing or complementary ways of expressing internationalism in the era of globalisation. By Peter Waterman and Jill Timms, pdf format.
Trade Unions, NGOs and Global Social Justice: Another Tale to Tell
The relationship between trade unions and NGOs is more crucial than most involved may realise. In a comprehensive article Peter Waterman reviews a collection from the journal “Development in Practice” on this issue. According to the author, the collection represents “an exceptionally rich resource book but one that does not possess the language for, or even the intention of, looking at these phenomena from the outside nor the specific forest in which they stand” (pdf format).
Civil society groups in the South
Transnational Information Exchange Asia (TIE Asia)
This organization wants to encourage and support the development of unions and democratic workers' organizations, new forms of organizing and broader social coalitions in the export orientated industries of South and South-East Asia. It also promotes and implements the rights of mainly women workers and brings about improvements to their livelihoods, their families, communities and society.
Asia Monitor Resource Centre (AMRC)
The AMRC supports a democratic and independent labour movement promoting the principles of labour rights, gender consciousness, and active workers’ participation in Asia. It provides information, consultation, publications, documentation, and conducts research, training, advocacy, campaigns, labour networking, and related services to trade unions, pro-labour groups, related NGOs, academics, researchers, and professionals on labour issues.
The Asian Workers Occupational Health, Safety and Environment Institute
The institute’s mission is to improve the working conditions of workers in Asia and promote an environment-friendly and sustainable industry. It functions as a network of activists, offers advice on labour rights, and runs training and research programs throughout Asia.
Asia-Pacific Occupational Safety and Health Organization (APOSHO)
This is an international body composed of non-profit professional organizations devoted to the prevention of occupational accidents and diseases.
The Committee for Asian Women is an Asian Regional organization by women and for women that campaigns for equal labour standards and participation in decision-making for all women workers.
This is a support group for child workers in Asia, and the NGOs working with them. It facilitates sharing of expertise and experiences between NGOs. The network has strived to contribute to the development of the understanding of the situation of children who work and are exploited. It supports the emergence of local actions for working children and for the promotion of children's rights.
CLB is promoting independent, democratic union organizing, and the protection of labour rights and standards in mainland China. All of CLB’s activities are based on the principle of furthering and supporting Chinese workers to claim their labour rights and secure their livelihood.
The Thai Labour Campaign is committed to promoting workers' rights in Thailand and increasing awareness of labour issues globally. It researches and collects information about all forms of labour violations in Thailand and publicizes unjust practices and labour abuses. It also campaigns against manufacturers and transnational corporations which violate workers' rights.
Pakistan Institute of Labour Education & Research
This institute works for the support of working people through education, research, and advocacy. It also maintains data, news, journals publications, books and other resource materials on labour and related issues. Its main focus is Pakistan, but it is also involved in regional and international initiatives.
SALIGAN – Alternative Legal Assistance Center
This Philippine NGO is doing developmental legal assistance and seeks to effect social change by working towards the empowerment of women, the basic sectors, and local communities through the use of the law and legal resources.
The India Resource Center works to support movements against corporate globalization in India. It provides information on transnational corporations and educates and mobilizes key constituencies internationally to take action in support of campaigns in India.
Informal Sector Service Center (INSEC)
This organization from Nepal is working on the protection and promotion of human rights. It conducts research to identify the needs of the people in an area targeted. On the basis of the findings the people are prepared for collective action. This model has successfully been used in the case of bonded labour. A group which received INSEC help has organized an association called Kamaiya Liberation Forum, which is now affiliated to the General Federation of Nepalese Trade Unions.
Self Employed Women’s Association (SEWA)
SEWA is an Indian trade union of poor, self-employed women workers. These are women who earn a living through their own labour or small businesses. SEWA’s main goal is to organize women workers for full employment. Full employment means employment whereby workers obtain work security, income security, food security and social security (at least health care, child care and shelter).
Frente Autйntico del Trabajo (FAT)
FAT is an independent federation of labour unions, worker owned cooperatives, and farm worker and community organizations. The website has sections on FAT’s history, its basic documents, its analysis of important current questions, and information on recent developments and it local branches throughout Mexico. Website in Spanish only.
Enlace is a bi-national collaboration of low-wage worker organizations in the U. S. and Mexico that seeks to strengthen the base of organized workers. It provides assistance and on-going training to low wage worker groups to help them conduct effective economic justice campaigns, to continually regenerate their organizations and to develop new leadership.
Landless Workers Movement: Movimento dos Trabalhadores Rurais Sem Terra
The Brazilian Landless Workers Movement is the largest social movement in Latin America. Hundreds of thousands of landless peasants have taken onto themselves the task of carrying out a long-overdue land reform. The organization has created 60 food cooperatives as well as a small agricultural industry.
This Haitian group organizes factory unions and committees, workers’ associations and militants, all struggling in Haiti for the construction of an independent, combative and democratic union movement. It takes the initiative of developing spontaneous direct issue struggles, but also stimulates the working class to fight and to organize themselves to defend their independent interests.
Centre for Rural Legal Studies (CLRS)
The South Africa-based CRLS promotes the land and labour interests of men and women farm workers in the Western, Eastern and Northern Cape through training, information dissemination, research, advocacy, legal intervention and development facilitation. It works with rural communities and with effective, democratic local organizations and NGOs that are able to lobby for the rights of farm workers in maintaining sustainable livelihoods.
Development Institute for Training, Support & Education for Labour (Ditsela)
This center for the design and delivery of trade union education and training programs delivers support for the development of organizational capacity in the labour movement It aims to be the builder of a systematic trade union education program which brings together the efforts of all groups providing education for the labour movement, the federations, its affiliate unions as well as other independent trade union education providers.
Naledi's mission is to conduct policy-relevant research aimed at building the capacity of the South African labour movement to effectively engage with the challenges of the post-apartheid society. It is an initiative of the Congress of South African Trade Unions.
The global dimension of labour rights
Precariat meet’n'greet (New Unionism Network)
Today’s new unionists are beginning to organize the precariat – workers without security. To say this latter group represents the most rapidly growing sector in society entirely misses the point. The labour force has fundamentally changed. And according to many labour analysts, the real jolt is still to come. December 2009.
Call for "global jobs pact" amidst rising job losses ( South-north Development Monitor (SUNS))
In its latest Global Employment Trends update of May, the ILO has revised upwards its unemployment projections to levels ranging from 210 million to 239 million unemployed worldwide in 2009. The report notes that the economic crisis is detrimental for both women and men, whether they are at work, looking for work or outside the labour force. Women are often in a disadvantaged position in comparison to men in labour markets around the world. June 2009.
The networked internationalism of labour's others
This is a proposal for research into the new and developing internationalisms of the 'peasants, artisans and others, enrolled amongst the sons of toil'. These internationalisms are so commonly articulated in network form (so difficult to understand without network theory?) that it is difficult to discuss the one without the other. By Peter Waterman, December 2007, pdf format.
Annual survey of trade union rights violations (ICFTU)
115 trade unionists were murdered for defending workers' rights in 2005, while more than 1,600 were subjected to violent assaults and some 9,000 arrested, according to the ICFTU's Annual Survey of Trade Union Rights violations. Nearly 10,000 workers were sacked for their trade union involvement, and almost 1,700 detained. June 2006.
Africa: informal economy workers left out of decision making processes (War on Want, WEAZ and AZIEA)
Structural adjustment policies in the late 1980s and early 1990s have significantly contributed towards a rapid growth of the informal economy in many African countries. This led to a sharp decrease in employment in the formal sector and forced many to survive in highly precarious and insecure conditions in the informal economy. This report shows how workers in the informal economy have only gradually been acknowledged as stakeholders in policy formulation processes in spite of representing between 70 and 90 percent of the labour force in Africa. May 2006.
Toward a global labour charter for the 21th Century
The Labour Chapter in the Bamako Appeal may represent the most radical public statement on the contemporary global labour question to be found so far. Considering the present nature of work and workers worldwide, it recognises the limitations of the trade unions - traditionally considered to be either the sole or the central form of worker self-organisation. But it nonetheless suggests a significant role for labour within the new global justice and solidarity movement, thus re-articulating labour with the general social movement of our epoch. April 2006.
Global civil society: a concept worth defining, a terrain worth disputing (NIGD)
"Given the current transformation to a globalised, computerised, networked capitalism, the displacing, de - and re-structuring of the working class(es) (epitomised in the neologism ‘precariat’), given the generalisation of alienation from capitalism, given the increase in the collective subjects of resistance and proposition worldwide, and given the necessity and possibility of many utopias, it is time to both say farewell to the past and to energetically engage our present". November 2005.
Globalization failing to reduce poverty, says ILO (Third World Network Features)
Global economic growth is increasingly failing to translate into new and better jobs that lead to a reduction in poverty, the International Labour Office (ILO) said. In its fourth edition of Key Indicators of the Labour Market (KILM), the ILO said that currently, half the world’s workers still do not earn enough to lift themselves and their families above the $2-a-day poverty line. January 2006.
ICFTU Annual Survey: Grim global catalogue of anti-union repression (ICFTU)
Being a trade unionist is becoming more dangerous with a total of 145 people worldwide killed due to their trade union activities in 2004, 16 more than the previous year, according to the International Confederation of Free Trade Unions (ICFTU) Annual Survey of Trade Union Rights Violations. The report, which covers 136 countries from all five continents, also documents over 700 violent attacks on trade unionists, and nearly 500 death threats. October 2005.
Status of ratifications of fundamental ILO Conventions (Social Watch Report 2005)
This table shows which countries have ratified, refused or denounced fundumental Conventions adopted by the International Labour Organization (ILO). (PDF document). September 2005.
Making a mess abroad: the foreign aid policy of the 'decidedly internationalist' AFL-CIO
Those concerned with even effective labor defense against a globalized capitalism need, surely, to create, first and foremost, a partnership at the level of working people, and allied democratic forces – even if these are in Arequipa (Peru), Novosibirsk (Russia) or Ouagadougou (it's the capital of Burkina Faso, just above Lomй, Togo, on the map of Africa). September 2002, pdf format.
Global unions with the Global Campaign Against Poverty (GCAP) (ICFTU)
The Global Call to Action Against Poverty (GCAP), launched at the World Social Forum 2005, aims to mobilise massive popular pressure for the world’s governments to make significant progress on poverty reduction. Recognizing the role which can be played by trade union organisations at national and international level, a coalition of Global Unions aims to join forces for more and better jobs against poverty.
Decent work and the Millenium Development Goals (ICFTU)
The UN Secretary-General’s report "In Larger Freedom" will form the basis for discussions among member states during the coming months in preparation for the Millennium plus 5 Summit of the UN General Assembly (14-16 September 2005). The International Confederation of Free Trade Unions (ICFTU) commented Annan's proposals with a focus on Section 1:"Freedom from Want", raising critical issues which trade unions bring to the attention of governments and the international community. PDF document. May 2005.
Southern solidarity: why developing countries must unite to fight violation of labour rights (ID21)
Many analysts of international trade decry the concept of a ‘social clause’ as an attempt by rich developed countries to protect jobs and dominate markets by stipulating minimum labour standards. However, little attention is given to competition between developing countries to gain access to markets in richer countries, which is equally detrimental to labour standards. In the absence of a common set of minimum labour standards, destructive competition deprives workers of the benefits of economic growth.
Global survey charts the spread of anti-union repression (ICFTU)
With 129 trade unionists killed worldwide and an upward swing in death threats, imprisonment and physical harassment; trade union rights continue to be violated across the world. June 2004.
ILO Declaration on Fundamental Principles and Rights at Work
Adopted in 1998, the ILO Declaration on Fundamental Principles and Rights at Work is an expression of commitment by governments, employers' and workers' organizations to uphold basic human values. The declaration asks for the freedom of association and the right to collective bargaining, the elimination of forced and compulsory labour, the abolition of child labour, and the elimination of discrimination in the workplace.
The Global Work Place. Challenging the race to the bottom.
This is a two part education unit for grassroots trade unionists who want to find out more about globalization. The course aims to highlight shared interests with workers in the developing world and the challenges they face, and to equip trade unionists with skills to actively pursue an international strategy within their unions. Chapters can be downloaded as pdf-files.
Thinking globally, but acting locally (The International Centre for Trade Union Rights)
This paper examines the response of the international trade union movement to global trade liberalization and the neo-liberal industrial relations policies which have accompanied it. It analyses the elements of globalization and the largely unsuccessful efforts of the international trade union movement to influence the institutions which promote and control it. It suggests that with time and a changed direction the international trade union movement may yet succeed in bringing a social dimension to globalization and the new economy.
Union strategies for the promotion of global labour rights: The social clause proposal (Society for the Promotion of Human Rights in Employment)
The trade union demand that a labour rights clause should be included in international trade agreements triggers the response that linking trade and rights is unacceptable; trade instruments should not be used to assure respect for rights and the demand is supposedly a Northern ploy not supported by Southern workers. This report argues that these charges have little warrant. The union movement has embraced a complex pattern of global political engagement that is sensitive to these claims and designed to capitalize on the divergent strengths of labour.
Bombarded by bilateral trade & investment agreements (Transnational Exchange Network Asia)
The removal of tariff barriers and protections for local industries, and of remaining regulations on investment and labour, workers are increasingly at the mercy of global capital which views trade and investment liberalisation as key to increasing its profits. With the privatisation and liberalisation of service sectors, which may be accelerated through bilateral agreements, workers also stand to lose out as local service providers are forced out of business because they cannot compete with bigger, more powerful overseas companies. Education, healthcare, water and other basic services are further exposed to international competition and run solely for profit (pdf file).
May Day Manifesto 2004 (International Confederation of Free Trade Unions)
In the May Day Manifesto 2004 the Global Unions ask for respect for workers’ rights, for women workers, and for those working in poverty. In this Olympic year particular consideration is paid to the millions of mostly women workers who produce sportswear under often appalling conditions.
Mapping trade union rights: freedom of association worldwide (International Centre for Trade Union Rights)
This world map illustrates the levels of support for ILO conventions and the principles of freedom of association worldwide. It also shows countries in which trade unionists have been arrested or even assassinated, and the legal protection for trade union rights at the regional and international levels.
The global home of manufacturing: Export Processing Zones
Sector specific living wage for Sri Lankan apparel industry workers (ALaRM)
Sri Lanka's apparel industry comprises of a 275,000 strong workforce, the majority being young, unmarried, migrant women. These women are hard working, talented and no doubt play a significant and pivotal role in the success of the country's apparel trade. However, given Sri Lanka's escalating costs of living and its promotion to a 'lower-middle income' classification, the need to introduce a fair and decent wage that considers their contribution to this successful industry is of paramount importance. The situation is exacerbated by the plethora of hidden costs which are not readily apparent in workers’ market-determined wages. The anomaly of persistent vacancies in the Free Trade Zones (FTZs) while simultaneously retrenching in the districts probably is an indication that all is not well with the wage structure. January 2007 (pdf version).
Toys of misery 2004 (National Labor Committee (NLC))
"Even the poorest, most desperate workers are not asking for more sweatshops. Rather, they are asking that they be treated like human beings, and that their fundamental human and worker rights be respected. The goal here is that the NFL, NBA, NCAA, MLB, Nascar, Collegiate Licensing Company, Wal-Mart, Disney and Hasbro keep their work at the Foreway factory, while at the same time working with their contractor to bring the plant swiftly into compliance with all local laws and internationally recognized human and worker rights standards. This is not too much to ask. The workers’ demands are quite modest—that their fundamental legal rights be respected". A joint report by National Labor Committee and China Labor Watch.
"Behind the Brands": new ICFTU report on export processing zones (ICFTU)
Backed by numerous testimonies, this report of some 60 pages, entitled exposes the harsh conditions and sweeping violations of workers’ rights that characterise export processing zones across the world. The report also presents case studies and journalistic investigations carried out on the ground in countries ranging from Bangladesh, China, Dominican Republic, Haiti and Honduras to Mexico, Madagascar and Mauritius. December 2004.
Manufacturing poverty: Export Processing Zones in Kenya (Pambazuka)
The EPZs were established to attract foreign investment, create jobs and diversify exports. However many argue that this goal has been pursued to the detriment of Kenyan workers, as investments have not translated into real improvements for workers and communities. To the contrary there is substantial evidence that basic human rights are being abused and that low wages and long hours are contributing to a continuous and increasing cycle of poverty.
Guide to Export Processing Zones (Business & Human Rights Resource Center)
This collection of resources on EPZs offers an overview of websites, articles, books, and other materials on the issue.
Resource Center: Maquilas / Export Processing Zones (Maquila Solidarity)
Extensive collection of articles about EPZs from around the world.
Export Processing Zones – Symbols of exploitation and a development dead-end (International Confederation of Free Trade Unions)
Introduction to export processing zones and the problems related to them. The gains of the countries hosting an EPZ are limited. While employment may be boosted temporarily, the countries do not receive duties or taxes and they compete heavily with each other. Labour rights are regularly violated, e. g. unions and collective bargaining are prohibited (pdf-file).
Export Processing Zones and the quest for development: a Southern African perspective (Global Policy Network)
This paper discusses why EPZs provide little prospect for addressing Southern Africa’s economic problems, while not only threatening labour standards but also greater regional cooperation. It describes the “race to the bottom” as governments in the region compete for foreign investment by lowering labour standards, often restricting union rights and offering incentives to foreign firms that are so costly that they are greatly limiting the benefits of the new investment to the national or local economy (pdf-file).
The organized labour free (trade zones) in Sri Lanka (Transnational Information Network Asia)
Sri Lanka, after being conned by predominantly US institutions to open up its economy for export production, with the sweeteners being some guaranteed access to the American market, no longer serves US interests. As a response investors will most likely force the government to keep wages low and prevent workers from organizing themselves in order to stay competitive (pdf-file).
Child labour
GAP slave kids is a gloomy reality of Indian growing economy (Global March Against Child Labour)
If you thought sweatshops and child labor were an issue of the past, think again. Recent news reports reveal Gap Inc. employed children as young as 10 years old, subjecting them to repeated beatings and threats to produce clothes. It is no surprise that these human rights violations occur in an international garment industry where sweatshop conditions are the norm, not an aberration. Western brands and designers have been looking for cheap labour in India but in the profit oriented business they forget to monitor that in glimmering, the future of thousands of children is diminishing. 30 October, 2007.
The end of child labour: within reach (ILO)
Despite considerable progress in the fight against child labour, a new report by the International Labour Organization (ILO) highlights important challenges, particularly in agriculture, where seven out of ten child labourers work. Other challenges include addressing the impact of HIV/AIDS on child labour, and building stronger links between child labour and youth employment concerns. May 2006.
Children and Youth workers Association (Associazione NATS)
The social movement of the children and youth workers (NATS, in spanish) supports the children and youth's right to work in good conditions whenever they need or want to. They claim it is necessary to separate exploitation from decent work, a somewhat different position than that of the ILO. The NATS movement unites organizations form Asia, Africa and Latin America. Site available only in italian.
World day against child labour (ILO)
Report released by the International Labour Organization (ILO) to mark World Day Against Child Labour 2005. It documents cases in Africa, Asia and South America where mining companies expose children to severe occupational hazards, often depriving them of basic freedoms. June 2005.
The subterranean child labour force: Subcontracted home based manufacturing in Asia (UNICEF)
Child labour is widespread in home based manufacturing activities in the informal sector in most developing countries. This report examines the incidence in such households, the child’s schooling, reasons why children are working, their work conditions, their health, and gender issues. It also attempts to articulate the voices of children working (pdf-file).
ILO: International Programme on the Elimination of Child Labour (IPEC)
IPEC’s aim is to work towards the progressive elimination of child labour by strengthening national capacities to address child labour problems, and by creating a worldwide movement to combat it. IPEC’s priority target groups are bonded child labourers, children in hazardous working conditions and occupations and children who are particularly vulnerable, i. e. very young working children (below 12 years of age), and working girls.
Child labour and obstacles to organizing on Ecuador's banana plantations
Source: Human Rights Watch On Ecuadorian banana plantations children work twelve hours on average under hazardous conditions that violate their human rights, including dangerous tasks detrimental to their physical and psychological well-being. The children are being exposed to pesticides, using sharp tools, hauling heavy loads of bananas from the fields to the packing plants. They are lacking potable water and restroom facilities, and experience sexual harassment.
Abuses against child domestic workers in El Salvador (Human Rights Watch)
Much of the domestic work of children interferes with their education and involves economic exploitation and hazardous work. This report from El Salvador reveals the abuse of child domestic workers which violates national and international law. It’s based on interviews with affected children as well as parents, activists, teachers and government officials (pdf-file).
The toy industry: made for children by children (International Right To Know Campaign)
Brand-name companies like Wal-Mart, Toys ‘R’ Us and Disney contract with companies in China where working conditions are harsh, work days long, and child labour widespread. In many cases, when the workers try to organize, government officials unleash a variety of repressive tactics, including detention and harassment of labour activists.
Child labour in China: Causes and solutions (China Labour Bulletin)
Despite laws and regulations that outlaw child labour, it is increasing in China. Punishments for factories is not enough to outweigh the advantages of using children. One of the prime reasons for the increasing numbers of children working instead of attending school is the lack of access to education for many of China’s children as well as rising poverty among the poorest. As the consequence, this report asks for poverty reduction measurements, improvement of education facilities, independent trade unions, and effective monitoring and enforcement of existing regulations to combat child labour.
Eliminating Child Labour: Not As Simple As It Seems (Maquila Solidarity Network)
The preoccupation with child labour by Northern media and some Northern campaigners can have unintended negative consequences. As bad as child labour is, many children have no other let alone better options. Teenagers who e. g. were dismissed from jobs in the garment industry due to anti-child labour campaigns ended up working in more dangerous jobs such as stone-crushing, agriculture or the sex trade.
The future of labour rights: Corporate accountability and fair trade
Another understanding of work
International labour studies in the light of social justice and solidarity
This review article covers five recent books and two websites concerned with international labour struggles and/or labour internationalism. It cnsiders these in the light not of classical or contemporary labour theory or ideologies but in that of the global justice and solidarity movement and a new orientation toward global social emancipation. July 2007.
Exploring preacariousness: a special section on the politics of precarious labour (MetaMute)
Does the term precariousness or 'precarity', as applied to the conditions of employment under neoliberalism, provide us with more than another trendy neologism? Angela Mitropoulos examines its use, misuse and associated political horizons. John Barker's 'Cheap Chinese' is a text on the structural insecurity of Chinese workers in mainland China and the UK; and Laura Sullivan's interview with Selma James and Nina Lopez from the Global Women's Strike, talk about Venezuela's recent legislation that will provide wages for housework.
From decent work to the liberation of life from work (Info Exchange)
"The emancipatory tendency in the international labour movement has to see itself as having one foot within the old labour and one in the new global justice movement. These are anyway overlapping categories. But the new movement in general, and the WSF in particular, still do not give to work and the labour movement the kind of recognition that they are – finally – beginning to give to women and feminism. Those in favour of the emancipation of labour, as part of the new social emancipation, are therefore in a relationship of hopefully creative tension with not only the old but the new. Here’s a utopian slogan, to be addressed to both - as well, of course, to labour’s present anti-social partners: "Another World, and Understanding, of Work is Possible, Necessary and Urgent!", March 24, 2005.
DROUGHT-R&SPI - Fostering European Drought Research and Science-Policy Interfacing
The project will reduce future Europe's vulnerability and risk to drought by innovative in-depth studies that combine drought investigations in six case study areas in water-stressed regions (river basin and national scale) with drought analyses at the pan-European scale.
Objetivos
Knowledge transfer across these scales is paramount because vulnerability is context-specific (e. g. physical, environmental, socio-economic, cultural, legal, institutional), which requires analyses on detailed scales, whereas international policies and drought-generating climate drivers and land surface processes are operating on large scales.
The project will adopt Science-Policy Interfacing at the various scales, by establishing Case Study Dialogue Fora and a pan-Europe Dialogue Forum, which will ensure that the research will be well integrated into the policy-making from the start of the project onwards.
The study will foster a better understanding of past droughts (e. g. underlying processes, occurrences, environmental and socio-economic impacts, past responses), which then will contribute to the assessment of drought hazards and potential vulnerabilities in the 21th Century.
An innovative methodology for early drought warning at the pan-European scale will be developed, which will improve on the forecasting and a suite of interlinked physical and impact indicators. This will help to increase drought preparedness, and to indentify and implement appropriate Disaster Risk Reduction measures (along the lines of the UN/ISDR HFA).
The project will address the past and future climate, link science and science policy dialogue across scales and across a range of affected sectors.
Más información
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